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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a mineralogy-based anthropogenic combustion-iron emission inventory

Atmospheric supply of iron can modulate ocean biogeochemistry, due to its key role in global nitrogen and carbon cycles. Using a detailed technology-based methodology we revise total and soluble anthropogenic iron emissions and resolve iron into its mineral components, which allows modeling mineral-specific atmospheric reactions. The inclusion of metal smelting as an iron source, increases fine iron aerosol emissions (smaller than 1 µm) compared with most previous inventories. Different assumptions about solubility lead to estimates of 40-450 Gg/year deposition of soluble anthropogenic iron. When combined with dust and wildfires, the global total anthropogenic soluble iron deposition is 1900-2300 Gg/yr, so assumptions in anthropogenic inventories can affect estimates of global soluble iron supply by about 30%. In regions where marine primary productivity is iron-limited, anthropogenic combustion-iron contributes up to half of the atmospheric soluble iron flux to North Pacific Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Sea Surface Slope Statistics for Intermediate and Shore Scale Ocean Waves Measured Using a Low-Altitude Aircraft

Ocean surface remote sensing techniques often rely on scattering or emission linked to shorter- scale gravity-capillary ocean wavelets. However, it is increasingly apparent that slightly longer wavelengths of O(10 to 500 cm) are vital components in the robust sea surface description needed to link varied global remote sensing data sets. This paper describes a sensor suite developed to examine sea surface slope variations in the field using an aircraft flying at very low altitude (below 30 m) and will also provide preliminary measurements detailing changes in slope characteristics versus sea state and friction velocity. Two-dimensional surface slope is measured using simultaneous range measurements from three compact short-range laser altimeters mounted in an equilateral triangle arrangement with spacing of about 1 m. In addition, all three lasers provide independent wave elevation profiles after GPS-aided correction for aircraft altitude. Laser range precision is 1 cm rms while vertical motion correction is 15 cm rms. The measurements are made along-track at approximately 1 m intervals setting the spatial scale of the measurement to cover waves of intermediate to long scale. Products available for this array then include surface elevation, two-dimensional slope distribution, and the cross- and along-track 1-D slope distributions. To complement the laser, a down-looking mm-wave radar scatterometer is centered within the laser array to measure radar backscatter simultaneously with the laser slope. The radar's footprint is nominally 1 m in diameter. Near-vertical radar backscatter is inversely proportional to the small-scale surface slope variance and to the tilt of the underlying (laser-measured) surface facet. Together the laser and radar data provide information on wave roughness from the longest scales down to about 1 cm. These measurements are complemented by aircraft turbulence probe data that provides robust surface flux information.

Vandemack, Douglas↗
NASA NTRS1990

Temporal and spatial variability of the tropical radiation budget from ERBS measurements (March 1985 to February 1986)

The diurnal and regional variations of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget in the tropics are examined and the relative importance of these variations are assessed. The variations of the radiation components with scene type and the radiative effects of clouds are investigated. The LW emission shows the strongest diurnal variation over clear desert and land scenes, with domain-averaged diurnal ranges of approximately 50 W/sq m and 35 W/sq m, respectively. The LW emission over clear and tropical oceans show a small diurnal range of less than 1 W/sq m. A bias in the ERBE scene ID algorithm against clear tropical scenes at night is evident in the LW diurnal variation results for clear scenes. The effect of tropical water vapor resulting in low LW emission to space is diagnosed as the principal source of uncertainty in scene identification at night. Regional cloud forcing results show a strong dependence of net forcing on cloud type. While high cirrus clouds largely contribute to a small positive net forcing, low stratiform clouds primarily account for a large negative net forcing.

Chang, T. Y.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Fast Vector Radiative Transfer Model for the Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled System

To infer atmospheric and oceanic constituent properties from polarimetric observations, an efficient and accurate retrieval algorithm is desirable. In-line radiative transfer calculations are indispensable if a large state vector, including both atmospheric profiles and surface properties, is used to improve retrieval accuracy. However, in-line radiative transfer calculations are usually not computationally efficient for remote sensing applications. Therefore, there is a pressing need to develop an accurate and fast vector radiative transfer model (RTM) to fully utilize satellite polarimetric observations. This paper reports on a fast vector RTM, referred to as TAMU-VRTM, in support of polarimetric remote sensing, which is capable of simulating the Stokes vector values observed at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface by fully considering absorption, scattering, and emission in the atmosphere and ocean. Gaseous absorption is parameterized with respect to gas concentration, temperature, and pressure, by using a regression method applicable to an inhomogeneous atmospheric path. An efficient two-component approach combining the small angle approximation and the adding-doubling method is utilized to solve the vector radiative transfer equation (RTE). The thermal emission component of the RTE solution is obtained by an efficient doubling process. The air-sea interface is treated as a wind-ruffled rough surface in the model to mimic a realistic ocean surface. Several oceanic optical property models are introduced to model ocean inherent optical properties. To demonstrate the applicability of the TAMUVRTM, simulations are compared with satellite observations, and results from other vector radiative transfer methods including benchmarks.

radiative transfer in coupled atmosphere-ocean sys↗
DOE OSTI2024

Baselining the Indirect Effect by Improving Quantification of Sea Spray and Marine Sources at Ascension Island (Final Report)

Oceans cover two-thirds of the Earth and understanding the interactions of aerosols with clouds in these large marine regions requires quantifying the man-made contributions to the budget of cloud-drop forming particles (known as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) relative to the non-manmade “baseline” conditions and understanding the meteorology of boundary layer clouds. Modeling studies have shown substantial uncertainties and sensitivities to natural marine CCN sources, meaning that to reduce uncertainties in indirect effects we must be able to better quantify the CCN budget in ocean regions. While models provide important constraints on these uncertainties, actually reducing uncertainties requires substantial observations in open-ocean and coastal regions in order to establish the baseline on which manmade emissions are added. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean is one of the least-sampled regions of the planet, making the comprehensive measurements of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign provides the longest record of aerosol size distribution measurements from a differential mobility analyzer in a cloud-influenced marine location in the ARM database, with 17 months of ground-based aerosol size distribution measurements. This project addressed the research topic of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) by supporting three publications from the LASIC measurements: 1. The ARM measurements were combined with a new value-added technique that was pioneered by the Russell group for quantifying sea salt. This quantification of sea salt uses supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available, observationally-constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available. 2. The fitted modes of the distribution were used to investigate the signatures of cloud processing for very clean to very smoky aerosol conditions, revealing not only differences in the particles that activate in clouds but also in the mechanisms that control that droplet formation process. In clean air, the size required to form a cloud droplet is influenced by the number of particles, as well as how quickly particles take up water during growth in cloud. 3. Building on this aerosol characterization, cloud and meteorological conditions were used to evaluate aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth. We introduced a new method of decomposing the impact of aerosols on clouds known as the Twomey effect by incorporating retrieved supersaturation from two independent sets of observations to constrain the feedback of aerosol particles on cloud properties. The method quantifies the reduction of the Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations, which has never been explained quantitatively by observations. In addition, the results provide the first direct validation for the conditions observed in the tropical South Atlantic of a parcel-based approach that is embedded in many climate models. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in stratocumulus-covered regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations, providing specific radiative effects without models. By making such process-specific constraints available to improve ACI in global climate models, ARM observations play a key role in supporting model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil management practices can contribute to net carbon neutrality in California

Stabilizing climate requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in land or ocean systems. Soil management practices can reduce GHG emissions or sequester atmospheric CO 2 into inorganic and organic forms. However, whether soil carbon strategies represent a viable and impactful climate mitigation pathway is uncertain. A specific question concerns the role that land-management practices and soil amendments can play in realizing California's ambition for carbon neutrality by 2045. Here we examine the carbon flux impacts of soil conservation (i.e., compost, reduced tillage, cover crop) and enhanced silicate rock weathering (EW) practices at different areal extents of implementation in cropland, grassland, and savanna in California under two climate change cases. We show that with implementation areas of 15% or 50% of private cultivated land, grassland, and savanna in California, soil conservation practices alone can contribute $1.4^{2.1}_{0.7}$% ($-1.8^{-2.7}_{ -0.9}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $4.6^{6.9}_{2.3}$% ($-6.0^{-8.9}_{-3.0}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) of the additional emissions reduction needed (beyond previous targets) to meet the 2045 net neutrality goal (-129.3 Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, on an average annual basis, including climate uncertainty. Including EW in these scenarios increases the total contributions of management practices to $4.1^{5.6}_{2.5}$% ($-5.2^{-7.3}_{-3.2}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $13.5^{18.6}_{8.2}$% ($-17.5^{-24.2}_{-10.7}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, of this reduction. This highlights that the extent of implementation area is a major factor in determining benefits and that EW has the potential to make a real contribution to net reduction targets. Results are similar across climate cases, indicating that contemporary field data can be used to make future projections. With EW there remains mechanistic uncertainties, however, such as rock dissolution rate and environmental controls on weathering products, which require additional field research to improve understanding of the technological efficacy of this approach for California's 2045 carbon neutrality goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Global average concentration and trend for hydroxyl radicals deduced from ALE/GAGE trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) data for 1978-1990

An optimal estimation inversion scheme is utilized with atmospheric data and emission estimates to determined the globally averaged CH3CCl3 tropospheric lifetime and OH concentration. The data are taken from atmospheric measurements from surface stations of 1,1,1-trichloroethane and show an annual increase of 4.4 +/- 0.2 percent. Industrial emission estimates and a small oceanic loss rate are included, and the OH concentration for the same period (1978-1990) are incorporated at 1.0 +/- 0.8 percent/yr. The positive OH trend is consistent with theories regarding OH and ozone trends with respect to land use and global warming. Attention is given to the effects of the ENSO on the CH3CCl3 data and the assumption of continuing current industrial anthropogenic emissions. A novel tropical atmospheric tracer-transport mechanism is noted with respect to the CH3CCl3 data.

Prinn, R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations

Abstract. Idealized experiments with coupled climate-carbon Earth system models (ESMs) provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to external forcing and for quantifying climate-carbon feedbacks. Here, we analyze globally-averaged results from idealized esm-flat10 experiments and show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean during a period of constant fossil fuel emissions of 10 Pg C yr−1. We hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. Further, as a simplification, we quantify the relationship between cumulative ocean carbon uptake and changes in ocean heat content using a linear approximation. In this way, changes in oceanic heat content and atmospheric CO2 concentration become interdependent variables, reducing the coupled temperature-CO2 system to just one differential equation. The equation can be solved analytically or numerically for the atmospheric CO2 concentration as a function of fossil fuel emissions. This approach leads to a simplified description of global carbon and climate dynamics, which could be used for applications beyond existing analytical frameworks.

Brovkin, Victor↗
NASA NTRS1993

An investigation of the atmospheric sources and sinks of Methyl Bromide

Methyl Bromide (CH3Br) is a ubiquitous component of the atmosphere and has been implicated as an important player in the depletion of stratospheric ozone. Atmospheric CH3Br abundances, interhemispheric gradients, oceanic concentrations, man-made emissions, and removal processes have been analyzed and interpreted with the help of a simple box model and a 2D global photochemical model. Its calculated atmospheric lifetime (T) of 1.7-1.9 years, based on reaction with OH radicals, is consistent with a global source of 90-110 Gg (10 exp 9 g)/year. Consequences of a much shorter lifetime of 1.2 years, due to possible deposition/hydrolysis losses, are also considered. Available data are used to estimate a CH3Br source that is 35 percent (20-50 percent) man-made and 65 percent (80-50 percent) natural. Oceans are substantially supersaturated and provide the most important natural source of about 60 (40-80) Gg/year.

Singh, Hanwant B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding processes that control dust spatial distributions with global climate models and satellite observations

Dust aerosol is important in modulating the climate system at local and global scales, yet its spatiotemporal distributions simulated by global climate models (GCMs) are highly uncertain. In this study, we evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of dust extinction profiles and dust optical depth (DOD) simulated by the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and version 2 (CESM2), the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) against satellite retrievals from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). We find that CESM1, CESM2, and E3SMv1 underestimate dust transport to remote regions. E3SMv1 performs better than CESM1 and CESM2 in simulating dust transport and the northern hemispheric DOD due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust. CESM2 performs the worst in the Northern Hemisphere due to its lower dust emission than in the other two models but has a better dust simulation over the Southern Ocean due to the overestimation of dust emission in the Southern Hemisphere. DOD from MERRA-2 agrees well with CALIOP DOD in remote regions due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust and the assimilation of aerosol optical depth. The large disagreements in the dust extinction profiles and DOD among CALIOP, MODIS, and MISR retrievals make the model evaluation of dust spatial distributions challenging. Our study indicates the importance of representing dust emission, dry/wet deposition, and size distribution in GCMs in correctly simulating dust spatiotemporal distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Grid Value of Ocean Current Energy in Florida

Ocean current energy technology has been proposed as a potential contributor to Florida's energy portfolio. There has been limited investigation of how this energy would be valued when integrated into the Florida electrical grid. This study assesses three future grid scenarios to evaluate the impact of adding zero-cost ocean current energy to each. The Resource Planning Model, a tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, is used to identify the least-cost generation mix through 2050, with and without ocean current energy. The first scenario is a base case and assumes existing policies in which the addition of ocean current energy does not retire fossil-based technologies but variable generation technologies. In the second scenario, solar and storage technologies are lower cost, and the addition of ocean current generation enables those technologies along with wind to retire existing natural gas units earlier. In the third scenario, which requires a 95% reduction in carbon emissions from 2020 levels by 2050, ocean current energy can play a role in decarbonization along with other variable generation technologies. This analysis is intended to inform stakeholders on the opportunity, potential challenges, and overall value to the grid of ocean current technology from a reliability and availability focused perspective.

capacity expansion model↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the projections of future changes.

particulates↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Carbon Budget 2019

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (E(FF)) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (E(LUC)), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (G(ATM)) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (S(OCEAN)) and terrestrial CO2 sink (S(LAND)) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B(IM)), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), E(FF) was 9.5±0.5 GtC/yr, E(LUC) 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, G(ATM) 4.9±0.02 GtC/yr (2.3±0.01 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) 2.5±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) 3.2±0.6 GtC/yr, with a budget imbalance B(IM) of 0.4 GtC/yr indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in E(FF) was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC/yr, reaching 10 GtC/yr for the first time in history, E(LUC) was 1.5±0.7 GtC/yr, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC/yr (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, G(ATM) was 5.1±0.2 GtC/yr (2.4±0.1 ppm/yr), S(OCEAN) was 2.6±0.6 GtC/yr, and S(LAND) was 3.5±0.7 GtC/yr, with a B(IM) of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in E(FF) of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC/yr persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013).

global carbon budget 2019↗
NASA NTRS2004

Use of IRI to Model the Effect of Ionosphere Emission on Earth Remote Sensing at L-Band

Microwave remote sensing in the window at 1.413 GHz (L-band) set aside for passive use only is important for monitoring sea surface salinity and soil moisture. These parameters are important for understanding ocean dynamics and energy exchange between the surface and atmosphere, and both NASA and ESA plan to launch satellite sensors to monitor these parameters at L-band (Aquarius, Hydros and SMOS). The ionosphere is an important source of error for passive remote sensing at this frequency. In addition to Faraday rotation, emission from the ionosphere is also a potential source of error at L-band. As an aid for correcting for emission, a regression model is presented that relates ionosphere emission to the integrated electron density (TEC). The goal is to use TEC from sources such as TOPEX, JASON or GPS to obtain estimates of emission over the oceans where the electron density profiles needed to compute emission are not available. In addition, data will also be presented to evaluate the use of the IRI for computing emission over the ocean.

Abraham, Saji↗
NASA NTRS2011

Improved Surface and Tropospheric Temperatures Determined Using Only Shortwave Channels: The AIRS Science Team Version-6 Retrieval Algorithm

The Goddard DISC has generated products derived from AIRS/AMSU-A observations, starting from September 2002 when the AIRS instrument became stable, using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 retrieval algorithm. The AIRS Science Team Version-6 retrieval algorithm will be finalized in September 2011. This paper describes some of the significant improvements contained in the Version-6 retrieval algorithm, compared to that used in Version-5, with an emphasis on the improvement of atmospheric temperature profiles, ocean and land surface skin temperatures, and ocean and land surface spectral emissivities. AIRS contains 2378 spectral channels covering portions of the spectral region 650 cm(sup -1) (15.38 micrometers) - 2665 cm(sup -1) (3.752 micrometers). These spectral regions contain significant absorption features from two CO2 absorption bands, the 15 micrometers (longwave) CO2 band, and the 4.3 micrometers (shortwave) CO2 absorption band. There are also two atmospheric window regions, the 12 micrometer - 8 micrometer (longwave) window, and the 4.17 micrometer - 3.75 micrometer (shortwave) window. Historically, determination of surface and atmospheric temperatures from satellite observations was performed using primarily observations in the longwave window and CO2 absorption regions. According to cloud clearing theory, more accurate soundings of both surface skin and atmospheric temperatures can be obtained under partial cloud cover conditions if one uses observations in longwave channels to determine coefficients which generate cloud cleared radiances R(sup ^)(sub i) for all channels, and uses R(sup ^)(sub i) only from shortwave channels in the determination of surface and atmospheric temperatures. This procedure is now being used in the AIRS Version-6 Retrieval Algorithm. Results are presented for both daytime and nighttime conditions showing improved Version-6 surface and atmospheric soundings under partial cloud cover.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2012

Mapping of CO2 at High Spatiotemporal Resolution using Satellite Observations: Global distributions from OCO-2

Satellite observations of CO2 offer new opportunities to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Using such observations to infer global maps of atmospheric CO2 and their associated uncertainties can provide key information about the distribution and dynamic behavior of CO2, through comparison to atmospheric CO2 distributions predicted from biospheric, oceanic, or fossil fuel flux emissions estimates coupled with atmospheric transport models. Ideally, these maps should be at temporal resolutions that are short enough to represent and capture the synoptic dynamics of atmospheric CO2. This study presents a geostatistical method that accomplishes this goal. The method can extract information about the spatial covariance structure of the CO2 field from the available CO2 retrievals, yields full coverage (Level 3) maps at high spatial resolutions, and provides estimates of the uncertainties associated with these maps. The method does not require information about CO2 fluxes or atmospheric transport, such that the Level 3 maps are informed entirely by available retrievals. The approach is assessed by investigating its performance using synthetic OCO-2 data generated from the PCTM/ GEOS-4/CASA-GFED model, for time periods ranging from 1 to 16 days and a target spatial resolution of 1deg latitude x 1.25deg longitude. Results show that global CO2 fields from OCO-2 observations can be predicted well at surprisingly high temporal resolutions. Even one-day Level 3 maps reproduce the large-scale features of the atmospheric CO2 distribution, and yield realistic uncertainty bounds. Temporal resolutions of two to four days result in the best performance for a wide range of investigated scenarios, providing maps at an order of magnitude higher temporal resolution relative to the monthly or seasonal Level 3 maps typically reported in the literature.

Hammerling, Dorit M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO 2

Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO 2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is -0.36 to 0.29°C, with a model ensemble mean of -0.07 °C, median of -0.05°C, and standard deviation of 0.19°C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

MacDougall, Andrew H.↗