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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Framework for Maintenance Scheduling Based on Dynamic Preventive Intervals and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Data-based prognostic methods exploit sensor data to forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial settings to optimize the scheduling of maintenance actions. However, implementing sensors may not be cost-effective or practical for all components. Traditional preventive approaches are not based on sensor data; however, they schedule maintenance at equally spaced intervals, which is not a cost-effective approach since the distribution of the time between failures changes with the degradation state of other parts or changes in working conditions. This study introduces a novel framework comprising two maintenance scheduling strategies. In the absence of sensor data, we propose a novel dynamic preventive policy that adjusts intervention intervals based on the most recent failure data. When sensor data are available, a method for RUL prediction, designated k-LSTM-GFT, is enhanced to dynamically account for RUL prediction uncertainty. The results demonstrate that dynamic preventive maintenance can yield cost reductions of up to 51.8% compared to conventional approaches. The predictive approach optimizes the exploitation of RUL, achieving costs that are only 3–5% higher than the minimum cost achievable while ensuring the safety of critical systems since all of the failures are avoided.

Nunes, Pedro (ORCID:0000000180012172)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Network reconfiguration and distributed energy resource scheduling for improved distribution system resilience

Electric utility companies work to restore as much load as possible after power outages caused by extreme weather events. In this paper, an outage management strategy is proposed to enhance distribution system resilience through network reconfiguration and distributed energy resources (DERs) scheduling. After a line fault, the proposed algorithm can identify radial network topology based on the rank of the incidence matrix. The reconfiguration is implemented by switching tie lines and sectionalizing lines. With the new network topology, an optimal DER scheduling problem is solved to minimize the accumulative cost for dispatchable DER operation and load reduction. Finally, the optimal topology that minimizes the accumulative cost is selected from all radial topologies. The computational workload is relatively low because only linear programming needs to be solved. Using the case studies of the IEEE 69-bus and IEEE 123-bus systems, we consider the worst-case scenarios in which faults occur in the upstream feeder. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed strategy allows for a relatively high percentage of the load to remain in service after line faults. Furthermore, compared with microgrid-formation approaches, the proposed strategy has advantages when applied to the distribution systems with several normally-open tie lines and low DER penetration.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification and validation of developed short-term forecasting models

Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies provide an opportunity for leveraging data-driven algorithms to predict future nuclear power plant (NPP) operating conditions by using recorded plant process data. Successfully implementing these models can lead to cost-reducing, conditioned-based predictive maintenance through optimized maintenance schedules and a reduction of unnecessary maintenance activities. This report discusses the verification and validation of short-term forecasting processes (i.e., data cleaning, feature selection, model optimization, and forecasting) developed in previous reports. The verification and validation (V&V) process demonstrates the expected precision and accuracy when the ML model encounters new datasets from different systems. Shapley additive explanations were used as the primary means of feature selection across these different data set. Individual models were trained for each data set, then validated through a cross-validation procedure. In this report, two different ML models were tasked to predict variables from three different plant process data sets with varying prediction horizons. The results indicate that support vector regression (SVR) outperformed long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in regard to each data set and each prediction horizon in this study, but further tuning and optimization could improve long short-term memory results. However, each forecasting model showed reduced performance as the prediction horizon was extended from 1 hour to 1 day ahead. Research is ongoing to evaluate the optimal input variable space, which is based on a given set of process parameters, to further improve forecasting accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating Survival Analysis with Bayesian Statistics to Forecast the Remaining Useful Life of a Centrifugal Pump Conditional to Multiple Fault Types

To improve the viability of nuclear power plants, there is a need to reduce their operational costs. Operational costs account for a significant portion of a plant’s yearly budget, due to their scheduled-based maintenance approach. In order to reduce these costs, proactive methods are required that estimate and forecast the state of a machine in real time to optimize maintenance schedules. In this research, we use Bayesian networks to develop a framework that can forecast the remaining useful life of a centrifugal pump. To do so, we integrate survival analysis with Bayesian statistics to forecast the health of the pump conditional to its current state. We complete our research by successfully using the Bayesian network on a case study. This solution provides an informed probabilistic viewpoint of the pumping system for the purpose of predictive maintenance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electric Vehicle Charging Management in Smart Energy Communities to Increase Renewable Energy Hosting Capacity

Abnormal climates due to global warming have emerged as a big concern in the global community. To mitigate climate change and achieve sustainability, distributed energy resources (DERs), including solar and wind, have been recently deployed in power systems. As the penetration level of DERs has increased, however, it caused a multitude of issues in the power systems, such as voltage fluctuation in the distribution network limiting renewable hosting capacity. On the other hand, the electric vehicle (EV) industry is rapidly growing to facilitate the transition to a carbon-neutral community, illuminating the potential of EVs as a flexible grid asset to mitigate some of the issues and improve grid operation, if properly exploited. To explore the potential of EVs, this paper proposes an EV scheduling strategy. By using an optimal EV charging scheduling proposed, distribution system operators (DSOs) can minimize their operating costs and stably operate the system with a high level of DERs. To validate the method, a modified IEEE 33-bus system with DERs is developed. The case study shows the proposed scheduling strategizes EV charging to reduce the cost of PV curtailment. In the study, the method outperforms the renewable-only case with curtailment by 4.97% in DSO cost. It also demonstrates its potential to increase the renewable hosting capacity by harmonizing EV charging with renewables.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sampling Size Optimization for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

Planetary protection (PP) is a discipline that focuses on minimizing the biological contamination of spacecraft to ensure compliance with international policy. Precise estimation of bioburden - the total number of microbes in or on spacecraft hardware – and the bioburden density are of utmost importance for PP. Such estimation is the way concordance with requirements is demonstrated, and it is critical for quantifying the potential risk of inadvertently contaminating other planetary bodies. Although a suite of molecular techniques have been used to thoroughly characterize and profile the microbiome of various cleanroom environments and spacecraft, the gold standard remains the physical enumeration of microbes via culturing of samples directly taken from spacecraft and associated surfaces. However, due to technical, budgetary, and programmatic constraints, only a manageable portion (around 10%) of the entire spacecraft surface is directly sampled with cotton swabs or wipes. To generate the bioburden current best estimate (CBE) for components not directly verifiable, the accepted approach is to apply a NASA-defined bioburden estimate based on the components’ manufacturing or assembly environment. This approach utilizes a prespecified bioburden density estimation that applies a maximum value across the total surface area of the specified component. For hardware components that underwent similar assembly processes, an implied bioburden is adopted for all components, based on a direct verification of a representative component within the same lot. Once all components have a CBE, the bioburden estimates are generated. In previous publication [ 1], we have shown that statistical risks quantifying the accuracy of the estimates for sampled, prespecified, and implied components can be derived and ranked. For mean squared error (MSE) function, the risks are available analytically and hence a cost function can be obtained to optimize the risks with respect to the sampling area and sampling cost. Since the sampling area and sampling cost are two complimentary variables, their sum will have a well-defined minimum. This paper presents the multivariate optimization of the integrated risk of an empirical Bayes estimator to determine the optimal sampling schedule for a given number of components. It is assumed that given a number of components, N, the bioburden density for each component can either be sampled, implied, or prespecified. The multivariate optimization searches through different options to sample, imply or prespecify the bioburden density for a component, and account for the component’s surface area and cost of sampling. The idea of the optimization is based on the observation that the statistical risk of using an estimator is a monotonically decreasing function of the sampled area. The larger the sampled area, the lower the risk of using the estimator as the estimator becomes more and more accurate as the sampling area increases. On the other hand, the cost of sampling is monotonically increasing as the sampled surface grows. This makes the risk and total cost of sampling complimentary variables which can be counterbalanced to achieve an optimal overall value with respect to the sampled surface. In this paper, the integrated risk has been used to quantify the accuracy of the estimator. This risk has been selected because it depends on neither the true value of the parameter nor on the collected data. The cost of each sample was also available to obtain the total cost of sampling of N components. The paper will present the results based on computer-simulated data as well as the data collected during the InSight mission. The computer-simulated data have N components with randomly generated total areas and each component assigned to one of the three categories according to the method of estimating of bioburden density: sampled, implied, or prespecified. The cost of sampling is also available. The cost of sampling is estimated based on a cost model provided by the planetary protection group at JPL. For this paper, the overall cost was assumed to be a linear function of exposure. The optimization process finds the allocation of the components to the three categories that minimizes the tradeoff between integrated risk and total cost. For the InSight data, a set of components is selected representing all three categories, and optimization is performed to determine if the performed allocation was optimal or if a better allocation could have been obtained. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt not only perform an accurate estimation of bioburden density but also do it in an optimal way.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reinforcement Learning to Enhance Optimal Operation of Resilient Community Energy Systems

This paper presents a novel model-free multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (RL) control method to enhance the resilience of community energy systems in island mode, which coordinates multiple objectives without the necessity of identifying system models that require expert knowledge. Specifically, a community-level coordinator agent is designed to allocate renewable energy resources among different buildings, and multiple building-level agents are developed to optimize load schedules based on limited energy resources and requirements of building loads and occupants’ comfort. In a two-day evaluation, our RL approach demonstrated a similar performance against MPC without requiring system models and formulation of optimization problems as required in MPC.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

In silico trials predict that combination strategies for enhancing vesicular stomatitis oncolytic virus are determined by tumor aggressivity

Background Immunotherapies, driven by immune-mediated antitumorigenicity, offer the potential for significant improvements to the treatment of multiple cancer types. Identifying therapeutic strategies that bolster antitumor immunity while limiting immune suppression is critical to selecting treatment combinations and schedules that offer durable therapeutic benefits. Combination oncolytic virus (OV) therapy, wherein complementary OVs are administered in succession, offer such promise, yet their translation from preclinical studies to clinical implementation is a major challenge. Overcoming this obstacle requires answering fundamental questions about how to effectively design and tailor schedules to provide the most benefit to patients. Methods We developed a computational biology model of combined oncolytic vaccinia (an enhancer virus) and vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) calibrated to and validated against multiple data sources. We then optimized protocols in a cohort of heterogeneous virtual individuals by leveraging this model and our previously established in silico clinical trial platform. Results Enhancer multiplicity was shown to have little to no impact on the average response to therapy. However, the duration of the VSV injection lag was found to be determinant for survival outcomes. Importantly, through treatment individualization, we found that optimal combination schedules are closely linked to tumor aggressivity. We predicted that patients with aggressively growing tumors required a single enhancer followed by a VSV injection 1 day later, whereas a small subset of patients with the slowest growing tumors needed multiple enhancers followed by a longer VSV delay of 15 days, suggesting that intrinsic tumor growth rates could inform the segregation of patients into clinical trials and ultimately determine patient survival. These results were validated in entirely new cohorts of virtual individuals with aggressive or non-aggressive subtypes. Conclusions Based on our results, improved therapeutic schedules for combinations with enhancer OVs can be studied and implemented. Our results further underline the impact of interdisciplinary approaches to preclinical planning and the importance of computational approaches to drug discovery and development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flexible Resource Scheduler for FAST-DERMS (FRS-FASTDERMS) v0.9

The Flexible Resource Scheduler is a hierarchical controller that manages the distributed energy resources in a distribution substation or distribution feeder to provide a firm commitment of power flow at the substation or feeder head to be scheduled in transmission-level markets as an aggregated demand resource. It is the reference controller for the FAST-DERMS Architecture, developed in tandem with the architecture under the DOE FAST-DERMS project. It is comprised of a day-ahead stochastic optimization, which schedules substation power flow and reserves, a intra-hour MPC, which generates dispatch base points for DER, and a real-time PID controller maintaining that dispatches DER to maintain the substation power around the base points. The repository also includes a representative aggregator controller, and all of the necessary components to run a simulation using PNNL's GridAPPS-D software with the controller.

MacDonald, Jason [Lawrence Berkeley National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2026

The relative influences of hydrologic information and dams’ hydropower scheduling decisions on electricity price forecasts

Price dynamics in wholesale electricity markets are driven by supply and demand. In markets with hydroelectric dams, the timing and amount of hydropower offered can influence prices in similar ways to wind and solar power. Unlike variable renewable energy, however, the supply of hydropower in wholesale markets is a function of both water availability and operational decisions at dams. Dam operators maximize revenues in wholesale markets by aligning generation with the periods of highest expected prices, and these scheduling decisions may in turn influence prices. Here, we examine the relative importance of two types of information in predicting forward electricity prices: a) water availability at dams, in the form of short-to-medium-range hydrological forecasts; and b) hourly scheduling decisions at dams. Using softly coupled hydrologic, hydropower scheduling, and power systems models spanning the U.S. Western Interconnection, we quantify the importance of hydrologic forecast accuracy in correctly predicting wholesale electricity prices and compare this with the influence of dam operators’ own hourly scheduling decisions on realized market prices. We find that aligning hydropower generation schedules with the periods of high forecasted prices causes larger, inadvertent price forecast errors than imperfect hydrologic forecasts. This suggests that knowledge of how water is managed by dam operators within the week is more important than weekly inflow forecast errors when predicting forward electricity prices. Our findings have implications for optimal hydropower scheduling by region. Specifically, accounting for price effects is critical in markets dominated by hydropower capacity.

Electricity markets↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond Price Taker: Optimizing Integrated Energy Systems Considering Market/Grid Interactions

Integrated Energy Systems (IES) combine two or more processes to increase the efficiency, flexibility of operation, and the overall reliability. However, analyzing IESs in volatile electricity markets is challenging, since the volatility in electricity prices makes the conventional levelized cost-type analysis less realistic. This work presents two approaches to address the challenge: price-taker and a surrogates-based approach for incorporating market interactions. The price-taker approach formulates a multiperiod optimization problem that takes the time-varying electricity prices into account, and solves the optimization problem to determine the optimal operational schedule that maximizes the chosen economic metric. This approach is successfully applied to investigate the performance of flexible power and hydrogen co-production systems. The market surrogates approach trains a machine learning model to predict the market behavior as a function of the characteristics of the IES. The trained surrogate model is used to optimize the design and operation of the given IES in an electricity market. This approach is demonstrated on a case study involving a nuclear power plant retrofitted with a low-temperature electrolysis unit to co-produce power and hydrogen.

beyond price taker↗
DOE OSTI2024

IRIS-GNN: Leveraging Graph Neural Networks for Scheduling on Truly Heterogeneous Runtime Systems

The diversity of accelerators in computer systems poses significant challenges for software developers, such as managing vendor-specific compiler toolchains, code fragmentation requiring different kernel implementations, and performance portability issues. To address these, the Intelligent Runtime System (IRIS) was developed. IRIS works across various systems, from smartphones to supercomputers, enabling automatic performance scaling based on available accelerators. It introduces abstract tasks for seamless execution transitions between accelerators while ensuring memory consistency and task dependencies. Although IRIS simplifies system details, optimal dynamic scheduling still requires user input to understand workload structures. To address this, we introduce a new scheduling policy for IRIS, termed IRIS-GNN, which is the first IRIS hybrid policy that operates in conjunction with the dynamic policies. This policy employs a Graph-Neural Network (GNN) to conduct Graph Classification of any task graphs submitted to IRIS. This GNN analyzes the structure and attributes of the task graph, categorizing it as either locality, concurrency, or mixed. This classification subsequently guides the selection of the dynamic policy used by IRIS. We provide a comparison of the performance of IRIS-GNN against the complete spectrum of IRIS’s dynamic policies, assess the overhead introduced by the GNN within this scheduling framework, and ultimately explore its practical application in real-world scenarios.

Johnston, Beau↗
DOE OSTI2022

Co-optimization of repairs and dynamic network reconfiguration for improved distribution system resilience

In this work, a post-disaster distribution system repair and restoration (DSRR) strategy is proposed to improve distribution system resilience. The DSRR strategy is formulated as a two-stage optimization. The first stage is a comprehensive co-optimization of repair crew scheduling, dynamic network reconfiguration, and distributed energy resource (DER) dispatch based on the forecast load profile. The goal is to minimize the accumulative operating cost caused by the load reduction payment as well as DER operating cost. In particular, since the number of available repair crews is usually smaller than the number of faulted lines after a disaster event, the DSRR strategy determines the optimal scheduling for repairing faulted lines. The second stage is a re-dispatch of the DER power output and load shedding based on the real-time load demand of each bus. The proposed algorithm is validated by case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems. We consider those scenarios in which faults occur in multiple heavy-loaded feeders. The simulation results demonstrate that the DSRR strategy effectively coordinate the repair scheduling, network reconfiguration and load shedding to minimize the operating cost.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows

This report details recent progress for the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows”. We refer to the project as IPPD/2, reflecting the 2017 renewal under expanded scope and partners In IPPD/2, we increased our research scope to include data motion. We are focusing on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. This new work on data motion will augment and complement IPPD/2’s research that focused on the computational aspects of tasks. We leverage and extend our existing tools and demonstrate our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II. The highlights of our work are as follows: Provenance for Workflows: Provenance is used to provide information enabling quality control, re-run computational workflows, and reproduce results. IPPD/2 has been building a scalable provenance management system that enables the capture of provenance from the high-level workflow through all relevant system levels in one integrated environment. Leveraging this work, our recent efforts have included using provenance as an enabling technique. Workload characterization: Leveraging provenance and analysis, we characterize data movement within network, storage, and memory over a variety of workloads. This characterization enables an understanding by performance analysts and application developers of the range of behaviors that could be expected. Performance Prediction for Workflows: The goal of modeling distributed workflows is to understand performance bottlenecks and enable more intelligent task scheduling to optimize selected metrics of interest (e.g., task throughput or output data rate). IPPD/2 has utilized both analytical and AI/ML modeling methodologies for performance modeling. Advanced Scheduling and Fault Modeling for Workflows: Scheduling of large-scale scientific workflows on geographically distributed resources is a challenging problem. To improve workflow throughput, we combined novel scheduling algorithms with task predictions from performance modeling and fault modeling. Dynamically Alleviating Bottlenecks in Workflows: Exploiting our provenance, analysis, and modeling efforts, we have explored and developed several techniques for dynamically detecting and alleviating bottlenecks in data movement. In particular, we have spent considerable effort demonstrating our techniques on production-like workflow configurations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dispatch optimization of electric thermal energy storage within System Advisor Model

A stand-alone electric thermal energy storage (ETES) system converts low-value electricity into heat using resistance heating elements. During periods of high-value electricity, an ETES system uses a thermodynamic power cycle to convert stored thermal energy back to electricity. These dispatchable systems derive value from their ability to store energy when prices are low and generate electricity when prices are favorable, i.e., energy arbitrage. Consequently, dispatch optimization of system operations, through maximizing revenue subject to system constraints, is essential to evaluate the economic value of a particular system design. While stand-alone ETES systems offer potential advantages as dispatchable grid storage technologies, there is a lack of a neutral third-party, publicly available, open-source model to evaluate the performance, dispatch, and financial viability of these systems. To address this problem, we have developed a techno-economic model for stand-alone ETES systems, within National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) System Advisor Model (SAM). We implement a mixed-integer linear program to determine an ETES optimal operating schedule that maximizes electricity sales less maintenance costs caused by operation and cycling given temporal-varying grid electricity prices. Our contributions include a mixed-integer linear program for energy arbitrage of an ETES system, an ETES performance model through a publicly-available software (i.e., SAM), and an exercise of our model through case studies that compare ETES operational strategies and annual financial metrics. With our dispatch optimization model, we were able to improve revenue by 20% compared to a myopic heuristic while reducing the operational cost of the ETES system through decreases in cycle starts, cycles per day, and heater starts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of model predictive control-enabled home energy management on large-scale distribution systems with photovoltaics

Residential customers use more than one-quarter of the electricity in the world. Optimally managing home energy consumption is an effective way of easing the operational challenges facing the electric grid with increasing solar photovoltaics (PV). This paper studies the impact of the future proliferation of home energy management systems (HEMS) in the presence of PV on large-scale distribution systems. First, we present a stochastic HEMS model that minimizes residential customers' thermal discomfort and energy costs under uncertainty. The HEMS model schedules the optimal operations of residential appliances in the presence of PV within a mixed-integer linear programming-based model predictive control framework that links the proposed HEMS to a quasi-steady-state time-series simulation tool. Additionally, extensive simulations are conducted for a stand-alone residential home using two tariff structures and for 1977 homes on an 8,500-node distribution feeder. Simulation results quantify the impact of the future proliferation of HEMS on the large-scale distribution system with PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Optimization for the Day-Ahead Scheduling of Cascaded Hydroelectric Systems

Uncertain electricity prices resulting from the re-structuring of electricity market have brought new opportu-nities and challenges for hydroelectric producers. This paper presents a data-driven robust optimization approach for the day-ahead scheduling of cascaded hydroelectric systems (CHS) with electricity price uncertainty. In this paper, a minimum volume enclosing ellipsoid (MVEE) is adopted to construct an ellipsoidal uncertainty set that fully identifies and exploits the historical characteristics data. Here, a second-order conic optimization formulation of the robust counterpart is derived for efficient computation. A real-world case study is conducted to demonstrate the capability of the proposed optimization approach compared with the traditional robust optimization approach.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal operation of solid-oxide electrolysis cells considering long-term chemical degradation

Optimizing the performance of solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) for long-term hydrogen (H 2 ) production at high temperatures is crucial, as prolonged operation leads to efficiency losses and shorter cell lifespans due to chemical degradation. Here, in this work, we adopt a quasi-steady state approach for dynamic optimization over extended operational periods to address the disparity in timescales between cell operation and degradation. Integrating a 2-D non-isothermal SOEC model with balance-of-plant (BOP) equipment, we explore three optimization objectives: minimizing terminal degradation, maximizing integral efficiency, and minimizing the levelized cost of H 2 (LCOH). Our dynamic optimization algorithm reduces LCOH by 9.5% and 16% compared to strategies focusing solely on terminal degradation and integral efficiency, respectively. For electricity prices of 0.03 $\$$/mWh and 0.3 $\$$ mWh optimal replacement schedules range from 5 to 2 years, depending on the operational mode. Furthermore, a flexible operational mode yields additional improvements in LCOH over traditional galvanostatic and potentiostatic modes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗