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NASA NTRS2024

A Survey of Modeling Activities by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) develops and maintains a number of modeling tools to analyze and simulate the orbital debris environment. One of the most important products produced by the NASA ODPO is the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM). This model can be used by satellite designers and operators to design missions for better protection against the debris environment. The ODPO is currently working on the next generation, designated ORDEM 4.0. ORDEM 4.0 will include many known features from previous models, such as the ability to input a spacecraft orbit and time and the ability to compute the flux as a function of debris size, impact speed, impact direction, and debris material densities, as well as uncertainty information on the flux. A new addition will be a parameterized debris shape model based on laboratory hypervelocity impact tests, including DebriSat. ORDEM is primarily based on dedicated debris measurements, such as by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), NASA’s Goldstone radar, and observations of geosynchronous orbits (GEO) using the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT). In addition to ORDEM, the ODPO also maintains other models, such as the LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model for studies of long-term evolution of Earth’s debris environment, with the ability to study various mitigation and remediation strategies. Another model, the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM), is used to analyze how satellite breakups may affect critical space missions (such as the ISS) on short notice. In addition to these models, the ODPO maintains other secondary models used to model satellite explosions and collisions, analyze radar, optical, and in situ data, and to model such things as solar activity and orbit evolution. In this presentation, a survey of these models will be presented, showing how the different models are used together to create a comprehensive picture of Earth’s debris environment.

Mark Matney↗

NASA NTRS2019

Orbital Debris Radar Measurements from the Haystack Ultra-Wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR): 2014-2017

For many years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has partnered with the U.S. Department of Defense and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) to collect data on the orbital debris environment using the Haystack radar. These measurements are used to characterize the small debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO), down to a noise-limited size of approximately 5 mm—depending on altitude. The Haystack radar operated by MIT Lincoln Lab underwent upgrades starting in May 2010, with operations resuming in 2014 as the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR). Hence, the data collected beginning in 2014 represents the first dataset available from this upgraded sensor. HUSIR is the primary source of data used by the ODPO to statistically sample orbital debris in the 5-mm to 10-cm size regime in LEO and is a key source of data to build and validate the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model. In this paper, we will present recent results from measurements performed during the US Government fiscal years 2014 – 2017. Using the NASA Size Estimation Model, a method based on laboratory radar measurements of debris, we will compare the size distributions of selected orbital debris populations over this 4-year period and flux measurements of orbital debris greater than 1 cm.

Murray, James↗

NASA NTRS1997

Meteoroids and Orbital Debris: Effects on Spacecraft

The natural space environment is characterized by many complex and subtle phenomena hostile to spacecraft. The effects of these phenomena impact spacecraft design, development, and operations. Space systems become increasingly susceptible to the space environment as use of composite materials and smaller, faster electronics increases. This trend makes an understanding of the natural space environment essential to accomplish overall mission objectives, especially in the current climate of better/cheaper/faster. Meteoroids are naturally occurring phenomena in the natural space environment. Orbital debris is manmade space litter accumulated in Earth orbit from the exploration of space. Descriptions are presented of orbital debris source, distribution, size, lifetime, and mitigation measures. This primer is one in a series of NASA Reference Publications currently being developed by the Electromagnetics and Aerospace Environments Branch, Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory, Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Belk, Cynthia A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Completion of a Geosynchronous Earth Orbit Survey with the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope

The Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT) is the primary optical sensor used by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) to statistically characterize the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) debris environment and support future Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) releases. The ES-MCAT completed its first optical survey of the GEO region from 2020 to 2022. The primary goal of this survey was to autonomously collect and process GEO data with calculated photometric and astrometric uncertainties. A pointing plan was developed to provide uniform sampling within the region of interest (ROI) while accounting for predicted downtime due to insufficient observing conditions. Detections are autonomously correlated to the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog to determine if objects are correlated targets (CTs) or uncorrelated targets (UCTs), the latter of which are of interest for modeling the GEO orbital debris environment. To assess the size detection sensitivity over time and monitor the general performance of the telescope’s optics and software, the optical throughput of the system and limiting magnitudes are evaluated on a routine basis. While the telescope’s ability to operate autonomously and remotely allowed for the GEO survey to continue throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions hampered routine cleaning of the optics during this time, and the primary mirror degraded enough to require recoating. The mirror was removed in 2022, concluding the first GEO survey. The primary mirror received a new coating designed to be more robust against the harsh environment surrounding the ES-MCAT’s location on Ascension Island, accounting for experience gained during operations over the first GEO survey. In early 2023, the recoated primary mirror was reinstalled, and the second GEO survey was initiated. The primary goal of the second GEO survey is to characterize the evolving GEO debris environment with updated optics, software, and pointing strategies while allowing for the inclusion of non-GEO regimes or those that are outside of the ROI. While the pointing method implemented in the first survey allowed for adequate coverage of the ROI over two years, it has been improved to include pointings that avoid the Moon’s position and the galactic plane to reduce software processing time and maximize the detection capabilities of fainter objects. This method also accounts for the changing weather patterns throughout the year and reduces coverage gaps in the ROI. Provided the success of the first two-year GEO survey using autonomous operations, the ODPO is actively collaborating with the United States Space Force (USSF) to make the ES-MCAT a contributing sensor to the SSN. This paper presents results from the first GEO survey including magnitude distributions and orbital parameters for CTs and UCTs. Details are provided for the automated processing pipeline and the optical system throughput for the previous and current primary mirror coatings. In addition, an updated strategy for the second GEO survey to optimize coverage over the ROI is discussed, as are preliminary results from the ongoing second survey.

Corbin Cruz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Completion of a Geosynchronous Earth Orbit Survey with the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope

Corbin Cruz↗

NASA NTRS2001

Quantifying and Improving International Space Station Survivability Following Orbital Debris Penetration

The increase of the orbital debris environment in low-earth orbit has prompted NASA to develop analytical tools for quantifying and lowering the likelihood of crew loss following orbital debris penetration of the International Space Station (ISS). NASA uses the Manned Spacecraft and Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) computer program to simulate the events that may cause crew loss following orbital debris penetration of ISS manned modules, including: (1) critical cracking (explosive decompression) of the module; (2) critical external equipment penetration (such as hydrazine and high pressure tanks); (3) critical internal system penetration (guidance, control, and other vital components); (4) hazardous payload penetration (furnaces, pressure bottles, and toxic substances); (5) crew injury (from fragments, overpressure, light flash, and temperature rise); (6) hypoxia from loss of cabin pressure; and (7) thrust from module hole causing high angular velocity (occurring only when key Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) equipment is damaged) and, thus, preventing safe escape vehicle (EV) departure. MSCSurv is also capable of quantifying the 'end effects' of orbital debris penetration, such as the likelihood of crew escape, the probability of each module depressurizing, and late loss of station control. By quantifying these effects (and their associated uncertainties), NASA is able to improve the likelihood of crew survivability following orbital debris penetration due to improved crew operations and internal designs.

Williamsen, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2016

Measuring Small Debris - What You Can't See Can Hurt You

While modeling gives us a tool to better understand the Earth orbit debris environment, it is measurements that give us "ground truth" about what is happening in space. Assets that can detect orbital debris remotely from the surface of the Earth, such as radars and telescopes, give us a statistical view of how debris are distributed in space, how they are being created, and how they are evolving over time. In addition, in situ detectors in space are giving us a better picture of how the small particle environment is actually damaging spacecraft today. IN addition, simulation experiments on the ground help us to understand what we are seeing in orbit. This talk will summarize the history of space debris measurements, how it has changed our view of the Earth orbit environment, and how we are designing the experiments of tomorrow.

Matney, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1990

Summary of the AIAA/NASA/DOD Orbital Debris Conference - Technical issues and future directions

An international conference on orbital debris was held on April 16-19, 1990, in Baltimore, Maryland. Topics of the conference included the implications of orbital debris for space flight, orbital debris measurements, modeling of the orbital debris environment, and methods to reduce the growth of the orbital debris population. Significant results from this meeting are summarized.

Potter, A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Comparison of Risk from Orbital Debris and Meteoroid Environment Models on the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU)

A well-known hazard associated with exposure to the space environment is the risk of failure from an impact from a meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) particle. An extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) “spacesuit” impact during a US extravehicular activity (EVA) is of great concern as a large leak could prevent an astronaut from safely reaching the airlock in time resulting in a loss of life. A risk assessment is provided to the EVA office at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) by the Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) group prior to certification of readiness for each US EVA. Need to understand the effect of updated meteoroid and orbital debris environment models to EMU risk.

Hoffman, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1992

Small orbital debris measurement: Recent advances and future problems

New measurements of the small orbital debris environment during the past three years have greatly expanded our knowledge of the population of orbital debris at sizes from 10 cm down to 100 microns. The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has provided new data for micro-debris at sizes below 1 mm. Telescope and radar measurements have provided new data for sizes in the range from about 2 mm to 10 cm., and have verified the predictions of Kessler's debris environment model. 'Clumps' or 'rings' of small debris, that are not accounted for in any environment models, have been detected both by LDEF and by the radars. Significant measurement problems remain. The relation between optical and radar measurements of debris is not understood. We have almost no information about the debris population in geosynchronous, Molniya and low-inclination orbits, and we lack evidence for the prediction of debris environments. Models of collisions in space between debris objects are beginning to be developed.

Potter, Andrew E.↗

NASA NTRS2013

LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model

LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model) is a three-dimensional orbital debris evolutionary model that is capable of simulating the historical and future debris populations in the near-Earth environment. The historical component in LEGEND adopts a deterministic approach to mimic the known historical populations. Launched rocket bodies, spacecraft, and mission-related debris (rings, bolts, etc.) are added to the simulated environment. Known historical breakup events are reproduced, and fragments down to 1 mm in size are created. The LEGEND future projection component adopts a Monte Carlo approach and uses an innovative pair-wise collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate the future breakups and the growth of the debris populations. This algorithm is based on a new "random sampling in time" approach that preserves characteristics of the traditional approach and captures the rapidly changing nature of the orbital debris environment. LEGEND is a Fortran 90-based numerical simulation program. It operates in a UNIX/Linux environment.

Liou, Jer Chyi↗

NASA NTRS2013

LightForce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Assessment on an Entire Catalogue of Space Debris

The potential to perturb debris orbits using photon pressure from ground-based lasers has been confirmed by independent research teams. Two useful applications of this scheme are protecting space assets from impacts with debris and stabilizing the orbital debris environment, both relying on collision avoidance rather than de-orbiting debris. This paper presents the results of a new assessment method to analyze the efficiency of the concept for collision avoidance. Earlier research concluded that one ground based system consisting of a 10 kW class laser, directed by a 1.5 m telescope with adaptive optics, can prevent a significant fraction of debris-debris collisions in low Earth orbit. That research used in-track displacement to measure efficiency and restricted itself to an analysis of a limited number of objects. As orbit prediction error is dependent on debris object properties, a static displacement threshold should be complemented with another measure to assess the efficiency of the scheme. In this paper we present the results of an approach using probability of collision. Using a least-squares fitting method, we improve the quality of the original TLE catalogue in terms of state and co-state accuracy. We then calculate collision probabilities for all the objects in the catalogue. The conjunctions with the highest risk of collision are then engaged by a simulated network of laser ground stations. After those engagements, the perturbed orbits are used to re-assess the collision probability in a 20 minute window around the original conjunction. We then use different criteria to evaluate the utility of the laser-based collision avoidance scheme and assess the number of base-line ground stations needed to mitigate a significant number of high probability conjunctions. Finally, we also give an account how a laser ground station can be used for both orbit deflection and debris tracking.

laser↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Comparison of the SOCIT and DebriSat Experiments

This paper explores the differences between, and shares the lessons learned from, two hypervelocity impact experiments critical to the update of orbital debris environment models. The procedures and processes of the fourth Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT) were analyzed and related to the ongoing DebriSat experiment. SOCIT was the first hypervelocity impact test designed specifically for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). It targeted a 1960's U.S. Navy satellite, from which data was obtained to update pre-existing NASA and DOD breakup models. DebriSat is a comprehensive update to these satellite breakup models- necessary since the material composition and design of satellites have evolved from the time of SOCIT. Specifically, DebriSat utilized carbon fiber, a composite not commonly used in satellites during the construction of the US Navy Transit satellite used in SOCIT. Although DebriSat is an ongoing activity, multiple points of difference are drawn between the two projects. Significantly, the hypervelocity tests were conducted with two distinct satellite models and test configurations, including projectile and chamber layout. While both hypervelocity tests utilized soft catch systems to minimize fragment damage to its post-impact shape, SOCIT only covered 65% of the projected area surrounding the satellite, whereas, DebriSat was completely surrounded cross-range and downrange by the foam panels to more completely collect fragments. Furthermore, utilizing lessons learned from SOCIT, DebriSat's post-impact processing varies in methodology (i.e., fragment collection, measurement, and characterization). For example, fragment sizes were manually determined during the SOCIT experiment, while DebriSat utilizes automated imaging systems for measuring fragments, maximizing repeatability while minimizing the potential for human error. In addition to exploring these variations in methodologies and processes, this paper also presents the challenges DebriSat has encountered thus far and how they were addressed. Accomplishing DebriSat's goal of collecting 90% of the debris, which constitutes well over 100,000 fragments, required addressing many challenges stemming from the very large number of fragments. One of these challenges arose in identifying the foam-embedded fragments. DebriSat addressed this by X-raying all of the panels once the loose debris were removed, and applying a detection algorithm developed in-house to automate the embedded fragment identification process. It is easy to see how the amount of data being compiled would be outstanding. Creating an efficient way to catalog each fragment, as well as archiving the data for reproducibility also posed a great challenge for DebriSat. Barcodes to label each fragment were introduced with the foresight that once the characterization process began, the datasheet for each fragment would have to be accessed again quickly and efficiently. The DebriSat experiment has benefited significantly by leveraging lessons learned from the SOCIT experiment along with the technological advancements that have occurred during the time between the experiments. The two experiments represent two ages of satellite technology and, together, demonstrate the continuous efforts to improve the experimental techniques for fragmentation debris characterization.

Ausay, Erick↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementing the 3-D woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP) Heat Shield for the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV)

he Mars Sample Return (MSR)Program will return Martian soil samples to Earth in the early 2030s. Since the biological content of these samples is unknown, and potentially upsetting to Earth’s biosphere, the Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) is required to be the most reliable entry probe ever devised. Entering Earth’s atmosphere at ~12 km/s, after up to a 6-day in-space free flight phase, the EEV must tolerate the cis-lunar Micro-Meteoroid environment, the near-Earth Orbital debris environment, and then entry heating of over 3,000 W/cm2 and pressures of250 kPa before ballistically impacting Earth’s surface at nearly 45 m/s. To reliably accomplish such a mission, NASA Ames is implementing the 3-D woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP) Heat Shield, derived from the prior Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environments(HEEET) material system [1]. 3MDCP development accomplishments to date, along with the future efforts to deliver the flight hardware are presented, along with a discussion of the manufacturing risks and accompanying mitigations achieved.

J C Vander Kam↗

NASA NTRS2019

The Space Debris Sensor Experiment

The Space Debris Sensor (SDS) is a NASA Class 1E technology demonstration external payload aboard the International Space Station (ISS). With approximately one square meter of detection area, the SDS is attached to the European Space Agency Columbus module facing the ISS velocity vector with minimal obstruction from ISS hardware. The SDS is the first flight demonstration of the Debris Resistive/Acoustic Grid Orbital NASA-Navy Sensor (DRAGONS) technology developed and matured over 10 years by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO), in concert with the DRAGONS consortium, to provide information on the sub-millimeter scale orbital debris environment. The SDS demonstrated the capacity to read 4 resistive grids at 1 Hz, 40 acoustic sensors at 500 kHz, and record and downlink impact data to the ground. Observable and derived data from the SDS could provide information to models that are critical to understanding risks the small debris environment poses to spacecraft in low Earth orbit. The technology demonstrated by the SDS is a major step forward in monitoring and characterizing the space debris environment. This paper will address the technical performance of the SDS during its operational lifetime and its realization of technical and scientific goals. The SDS was intended to operate for 3 years; however, the payload incurred multiple anomalies during its operational life. Subsequently termed “Anomaly #1,” the first was the symptomatic loss of low data rate 1553 channel command and telemetry. The second, Anomaly #2, was loss of all low- and medium-data rate (Ethernet) telemetry. Anomaly #2 proved to be unrecoverable, leading to loss of the payload after approximately 26 days on-board the ISS. Therefore, this paper also addresses the anomalies that occurred during operation of the SDS, their attribution, and their resolution. Lessons learned are described when relevant to anomaly identification, attribution, and resolution.

Anz-Meador, P.↗

NASA NTRS2017

An Overview of the Orbital Debris and Meteoroid Environments, Their Effects on Spacecraft, and What Can We Do About It?

Because of the high speeds needed for orbital space flight, hypervelocity impacts with objects in space are a constant risk to spacecraft. This includes natural debris - meteoroids - and the debris remnants of our own activities in space. A number of space surveillance assets are used to measure and track spacecraft, used upper stages, and breakup debris. However, much of the debris and meteoroids encountered by spacecraft in Earth orbit is not easily measured or tracked. For every man-made object that we can track, there are hundreds of small debris that are too small to be tracked but still large enough to damage spacecraft. In addition, even if we knew today's environment with perfect knowledge, the debris environment is dynamic and would change tomorrow. This means that much of the risk from both meteoroids and anthropogenic debris is statistical in nature. NASA uses and maintains a number of instruments to statistically monitor the meteoroid and orbital debris environments, and uses this information to compute statistical models for use by spacecraft designers and operators. Because orbital debris is a result of human activities, NASA has led the US government in formulating national and international strategies that space users can employ to limit the growth of debris in the future. This talk will summarize the history and current state of meteoroid and space debris measurements and modeling, how the environment influences spacecraft design and operations, how we are designing the experiments of tomorrow to improve our knowledge, and how we are working internationally to preserve the space environment for the future.

Matney, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2012

LightForce: An Update on Orbital Collision Avoidance Using Photon Pressure

We present an update on our research on collision avoidance using photon-pressure induced by ground-based lasers. In the past, we have shown the general feasibility of employing small orbit perturbations, induced by photon pressure from ground-based laser illumination, for collision avoidance in space. Possible applications would be protecting space assets from impacts with debris and stabilizing the orbital debris environment. Focusing on collision avoidance rather than de-orbit, the scheme avoids some of the security and liability implications of active debris removal, and requires less sophisticated hardware than laser ablation. In earlier research we concluded that one ground based system consisting of a 10 kW class laser, directed by a 1.5 m telescope with adaptive optics, could avoid a significant fraction of debris-debris collisions in low Earth orbit. This paper describes our recent efforts, which include refining our original analysis, employing higher fidelity simulations and performing experimental tracking tests. We investigate the efficacy of one or more laser ground stations for debris-debris collision avoidance and satellite protection using simulations to investigate multiple case studies. The approach includes modeling of laser beam propagation through the atmosphere, the debris environment (including actual trajectories and physical parameters), laser facility operations, and simulations of the resulting photon pressure. We also present the results of experimental laser debris tracking tests. These tests track potential targets of a first technical demonstration and quantify the achievable tracking performance.

Stupl, Jan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Overview of NASA’s Newest Engineering Model, ORDEM 4.0

Since the mid-1990s, one of the most important products produced by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has been the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM). This series of models distills down our knowledge of the orbital debris environment to compute debris fluxes on satellites in a given orbit. This information can be used by spacecraft and upper stage designers and operators to design missions for better protection against the debris environment. The current version of the model is ORDEM 3.2, but the ODPO is working on the next generation of ORDEM, to be designated ORDEM 4.0. ORDEM 4.0 will include many known features from previous models, such as the ability to input a spacecraft orbit and time and to compute the flux as a function of debris size, impact speed, impact direction, and debris material densities, as well as uncertainty information on the flux. ORDEM 4.0 will update debris populations using the most recent measurements, including radar observations by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), NASA’s Goldstone radar, data from the new Space Surveillance Network Space Fence, and observations of Geosynchronous Earth Orbits (GEO) using the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT). The latest in situ impact data from returned hardware surfaces will be used. In addition, ORDEM 4.0 will introduce a parameterized debris shape model based on laboratory hypervelocity impact tests, such as DebriSat. This will allow analysts to implement shape characteristics in their damage equations and more accurately predict impact damage risk by debris of different shapes and orientations. This paper provides an overview of some of the new features forthcoming in ORDEM 4.0 and a status report on its development.

Mark Matney↗