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Hybrid Approaches to Systems Health Management and Prognostics

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Latest achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision making. In principle, data driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for an effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.

Systems Health Management↗

NASA NTRS2022

Hybrid Model Based Approaches for Systems Health Management and Prognostics

This is a previously approved and published presentation. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Present achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. In principle, data-driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data-driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety-critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.

Prognostics↗

NASA NTRS1972

Absorption profile of a planetary atmosphere - A proposal for a scattering independent determination.

The use of scattering theory to infer atmospheric optical parameters requires the separation of absorption and scattering. It is demonstrated that a gradient flux relation exists that would provide the absorption (altitude) profile independently of scattering and irrespective of the state of polarization of the light field. The relation is derived for an atmosphere of plane-parallel or spherical geometry and for broad (continuum) and narrow (spectral line) frequency bands. The results are shown to hold, in particular, for the polarizations induced by both Rayleigh and Mie scattering in the field. Experimental setups are proposed for each of the cases considered of atmospheric geometry and frequency bandwidth.

Fymat, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Remote measurement of aerosol particle characteristics and their significance to meteorology

Theoretical models for the calculation of the radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols require the inference of such parameters as optical depth, the complex index of refraction and the equivalent size distribution. A polarimeter and a multispectral radiometer are used for local monitoring of aerosols via ground stations, or global monitoring via spacecraft occultation experiments. It is shown that measurements of optical depth at one wavelength as has been the custom, are insufficient to provide useful information for meteorological calculations, and new experiments and instruments must be devised to take advantage of new theoretical developments.

Kuriyan, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1978

M2 ocean tide parameters and the deceleration of the moon's mean longitude from satellite orbit data

An estimation was made of the principal long period spherical harmonic parameters in the representation for the M sub 2 ocean tide from the orbital histories of three satellites - 1967-92A (TRANSIT), Starlette, and GEOS-3. The data used were primarily the evolution of the orbital inclinations of the satellites, with the addition of the longitude of the ascending node from GEOS-3. The results are: (1) C sub 22 superscript + = 3.42 plus or minus 0.24 cm; (2) sub 42 superscript + = 0.97 plus or minus 0.12 cm; (3) epsilon subscript 22 superscript + = 325 D.5 plus or minus 3.D9; (4) epsilon subscript 42 superscript + = 42 = 124D.0 plus or minus 6 D.9. These values agree quite well with recent numerical models and another recent determination from satellite data. The M sub 2 parameters obtained here infer an N of -25 plus or minus 3 arc seconds/century squared, in good agreement with other investigators. The range of current determinations of N is from -24.6 to 27.2 arc second/century squared.

Felsentreger, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Some results of the UA-ARE Program

During the period of May 6-16, 1977, the University of Arizona Aerosol Research Group conducted a cooperative Aerosol and Radiation Experiment (UA-ARE Program) in Tucson, Ariz. The principal objective of the program was to compare how well theoretically computed fluxes at selected visible wavelengths agreed with measured fluxes for the case where the theoretical flux calculations were based on inferred atmospheric aerosol parameters derived exclusively from simultaneous optical remote sensing measurements. A second objective of the experiment was to intercompare the results obtained by different remote sensing techniques. The various measurement techniques employed in the UA-ARE Program are listed along with brief summaries of the information to be derived from the data obtained with each technique.

Reagan, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Spectrophotometry of Comet West

Postperihelion observations of Comet West (1975n = 1976 VI) have been made with a Fourier transform spectrometer at heliocentric distances from 0.57 to 1.68 AU. Measurements were made of the emission bands of C2, CN, C3, CH, and NH2, as well as the emission lines of Na D and forbidden (O I), and the flux in the continuum in nine different bandpasses. Several ratios of the band strengths of CN have been used to determine the two free parameters in the fluorescence equilibrium model of CN of Danks and Arpigny (1973). From the values of the parameters it is inferred that the vibrational transition probability for the ground electronic state is between 0.025 and 0.075 per sec and that the ratio of oscillator strengths between the (0-0) bands of the violet and red systems is between 25 and 30. When corrected for field-of-view effects, NH2 shows no systematic variation in abundance relative to C2 while CH shows a small increase. The cometary continuum is found to be slightly redder than the solar continuum, consistent with results for other bright, dusty comets. The equivalent width of the Delta u = 0 sequence of C2 shows a marked decrease at r(H) = 1.2 AU.

Ahearn, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A standard verification for rainfall estimation from remote platforms

Measurements of reflectivity at horizontal (Zh) and vertical (Zy) polarizations provide adequate information necessary to infer the two parameters of an exponential raindrop size distribution (No, Do) where the distribution is given by N(D) = Noexp(-3.67 D/Do). This distribution enables computation of water content or still air rainfall rates. The physical basis of the radar technique is outlined and illustrated theoretically, and experimental results, comparing radar derived rainfall rates with raingage and disdrometer measurements, are reviewed. The technique is useful for many meteorological and hydrological purposes, including ground truth measurements of rainfall rate over the ocean for comparison with satellite related observations.

Meitin, J. G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Endurance test of a 30-CM-diameter engineering model ion thruster. Task 12: Investigation of thin-film erosion monitors for ion thrusters

An investigation of short term measurement techniques for predicting the wearout of ion thrusters resulting from sputter erosion damage is described. The previously established laminar thin film techniques to provide high precision erosion rate data. However, the erosion rates obtained using this technique are generally substantially higher than those obtained during long term endurance tests (by virtue of the as deposited nature of the thin films), so that the results must be interpreted in a relative sense. Absolute measurements can be performed using a new masked substrate arrangement which was developed during this study. This new technique provides a means for estimating the lifetimes of critical discharge chamber components based on direct measurements of sputter erosion depths obtained during short duration (10 hour) tests. The method enables the effects on lifetime of thruster design and operating parameters to be inferred without the investment of the time and capital required to conduct long term (1000 hour) endurance tests. Results obtained using the direct measurement technique are shown to agree with sputter erosion depths calculated for the plasma conditions of the test and also with lifetest results. The direct measurement approach is shown to be applicable to both mercury and argon discharge plasma environments and should be useful in estimating the lifetimes of inert gas and extended performance mercury ion thrusters presently under development.

Beattie, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Diamagnetism and charge transfer in graphite intercalation compounds

The magnetic susceptibilities at 300 K of the acceptor-type intercalation compounds of graphite with Br2 and ICl are calculated; the results are compared with published experimental measurements in graphs; and the charge-transfer parameter f is inferred using a rigid-band model (Loughin et al., 1978; Weinberger et al., 1978; Mattix et al., 1983). Assuming a screening length of 200 pm, the values determined are f = 0.3 for C(8N)Br2 and f = 0.09 for C(13N)ICl.

Tsang, T.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Mapping the downwelling atmospheric radiation at the Earth's surface: A research strategy

A strategy is presented along with background material for determining downward atmospheric radiation at the Earth's surface on a regional scale but over the entire globe, using available information on the temperature and humidity of the air near the ground and at cloud base altitudes. Most of these parameters can be inferred from satellite radiance measurements. Careful validation of the derived radiances will be required using ground-based direct measurements of radiances, to avoid systematic biases of these derived field quantities.

Raschke, E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Basic data requirements for microwave radiometer systems

Microwave radiometry has emerged over the last two decades to become an integral part of the field of environmental remote sensing. Numerous investigations were conducted to evaluate the use of microwave radiometry for atmospheric, oceanographic, hydrological, and geological applications. Remote sensing of the earth using microwave radiometry began in 1968 by the Soviet satellite Cosmos 243, which included four microwave radiometers (Ulably, 1981). Since then, microwave radiometers were included onboard many spacecraft, and were used to infer many physical parameters. Some of the basic concepts of radiometric emission and measurement will be discussed. Several radiometer systems are presented and an overview of their operation is discussed. From the description of the radiometer operation the data stream required from the radiometer and the general type of algorithm required for the measurement is discussed.

Lawrence, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Relativistic induced Compton scattering in synchrotron self-absorbed sources

We present a model of the radio emission from synchrotron self-absorbed sources, including the effects of induced Compton scattering by the relativistic electrons in the source. Order of magnitude estimates show that stimulated scattering becomes the dominant absorption process when (kT(sub B)/m(sub e) c(exp 2))Tau(sub T) greater than or approximately 1.0. Numerical simulations demonstrate that relativistic induced Compton scattering limits the brightness temperature of a self-absorbed synchroton sources to T(sub B) less than or approximately 2 x 10(exp 11) nu(exp -1/p + 3) (sub zero, 9) gamma(exp p + 2/p + 5) (sub min) K, where gamma(sub min) is the low-energy cutoff to the relativistic electron distribution with a power-law index of p. It can also significantly flatten the radio spectrum. The radio spectrum of the core of 3C 279 is well matched by a model in which stimulated scattering is important, and the additional constraint T(sub B) less than 2 x 10(exp 11)K may be important to the interpretation of the broadband spectra in variable extragalactic compact radio sources. Stimulated scattering reduces the amplitude of the radio frequency variability relative to the X-ray variability, an effect which can be detected by multiwavelength variability studies. Data for a sample of resolved compact radio cores indicate that it is inconsistent to neglect induced Compton scattering when inferring the physical parameters of the sources. The necessary generalizations to the standard synchrotron self-Compton theory are p resented.

Sincell, Mark W.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Anisotropy of the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation on Large and Medium Angular Scales

This grant has supported work at Brown University on measurements of the 2.7 K Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation (CMB). The goal has been to characterize the spatial variations in the temperature of the CMB in order to understand the formation of large-scale structure in the universe. We have concurrently pursued two measurements using millimeter-wave telescopes carried aloft by scientific balloons. Both systems operate over a range of wavelengths, chosen to allow spectral removal of foreground sources such as the atmosphere, Galaxy, etc. The angular resolution of approx. 25 arcminutes is near the angular scale at which the most structure is predicted by current models to be visible in the CMB angular power spectrum. The main goal is to determine the angular scale of this structure; in turn we can infer the density parameter, Omega, for the universe as well as other cosmological parameters, such as the Hubble constant.

Houghton, Anthony↗

NASA NTRS1996

Io's Volcanism: Thermo-Physical Models of Silicate Lava Compared with Observations of Thermal Emission

Analyses of thermal infrared outbursts from the jovian satellite Io indicate that at least some of these volcanic events are due to silicate lava. Analysis of the January 9, 1990 outburst indicates that this was an active eruption consisting of a large lava flow (with mass eruption rate of order 10(exp 5) cubic m/sec) and a sustained area at silicate liquidus temperatures. This is interpreted as a series of fire fountains along a rift zone. A possible alternative scenario is that of an overflowing lava lake with extensive fire fountaining. The January 9, 1990 event is unique as multispectral observations with respect to time were obtained. In this paper, a model is presented for the thermal energy lost by active and cooling silicate lava flows and lakes on Io. The model thermal emission is compared with Earth-based observations and Voyager IRIS data. The model (a) provides an explanation of the thermal anomalies on Io's surface; (b) provides constraints on flow behavior and extent and infers some flow parameters; and (c) determines flow geometry and change in flow size with time, and the temperature of each part of the flow or lava lake surface as a function of its age. Models of heat output from active lava flows or inactive but recently emplaced lava flows or overturning lava lakes alone are unable to reproduce the observations. If the January 9, 1990 event is the emplacement of a lava flow, the equivalent of 27 such events per year would yield a volume of material sufficient, if uniformly distributed, to resurface all of Io at a rate of 1 cm/year.

Davies, Ashely G.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Estimating the k2 Tidal Gravity Love Number of Mars

Analysis of the orbits of spacecraft can be used to infer global tidal parameters. For Mars, the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft has been used to estimate the second degree Love number, k2 from the tracking DSN tracking Doppler and range data by several authors. Unfortunately, neither of the spacecraft presently in orbit are ideally suited to tidal recovery because they are in sun-synchronous orbits that vary only slightly in local time; and, further, the sub-solar location only varies by about 25 degrees in latitude. Never-the less respectable estimates of the k2 tide have been made by several authors. We present an updated solution of the degree 2 zonal Love number, compare with previous dues, and analyze the sensitivity of the solution to orbital parameters, spacecraft maneuvers, and solution methodology. Estimating the k2 Tidal Gravity Love Number of Mars.

Smith, David E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Initial closed operation of the CELSS Test Facility Engineering Development Unit

As part of the NASA Advanced Life Support Flight Program, a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) Test Facility Engineering Development Unit has been constructed and is undergoing initial operational testing at NASA Ames Research Center. The Engineering Development Unit (EDU) is a tightly closed, stringently controlled, ground-based testbed which provides a broad range of environmental conditions under which a variety of CELSS higher plant crops can be grown. Although the EDU was developed primarily to provide near-term engineering data and a realistic determination of the subsystem and system requirements necessary for the fabrication of a comparable flight unit, the EDU has also provided a means to evaluate plant crop productivity and physiology under controlled conditions. This paper describes the initial closed operational testing of the EDU, with emphasis on the hardware performance capabilities. Measured performance data during a 28-day closed operation period are compared with the specified functional requirements, and an example of inferring crop growth parameters from the test data is presented. Plans for future science and technology testing are also discussed. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Lettuce/growth & development/metabolism↗

NASA NTRS2002

Mountain-Top-to-Mountain-Top Optical Link Demonstration

A mountain-top-to-mountain-top optical communications demonstration was conducted between the JPL Table Mountain Facility (TMF), Wrightwood, California, and Strawberry Peak (SP), Lake Arrowhead, California, during the months of August and September of 2000. The link was nearly horizontal at an altitude of 2 km and spanned a range of 46.8 km. A 780-nm multibeam beacon broadcast from TMF was received by the JPL Optical Communications Demonstrator (OCD) located at SP. The received beacon was utilized as a pointing reference to retransmit an 852-nm communications laser beam, modulated at 400 Mb/s by a PN7 pseudo-random bit stream (PRBS) sequence. The long atmospheric path resulted in atmospheric-turbulence-induced angle-of-arrival fluctuations of the beacon at the OCD aperture. A .ne-steering control loop was used to track the resulting beacon centroid motion and update the pointing of the communications laser beam transmitted from SP to TMF. Fried parameters, or r0, inferred from focal spot sizes received at SP were 4 to 5 cm whereas, using the spot sizes received at TMF, they were 2 to 3 cm. In both cases, theory predicts larger r0 values. The predicted angle-of-arrival fluctuations compare well with measured rms displacements exhibited by the focal spots at either end of the link. An uncompensated error of ~1.1 rad in the x-axis and ~2 rad in the y-axis was obtained using centroid data logged by the OCD. Average bit-error rates of 10-5 were recorded for extended periods of time. An atmospheric coherence length r0 of 3 to 5 cm was inferred using the focal-plane spot size measured on the CCD tracking sensor and compared to a predicted value of 5 to 7 cm using reasonable atmospheric models. The irradiance bounds required for the CCD tracking sensor to perform centroiding was found to range from 2000 to 3000 integrated pixel counts, although a more reliable range was 600 to 3000, indicating a dynamic range of 6 to 11 dB. The motion of the spot on the focal plane was also recorded and yielded rms angle-of-arrival-induced focal-plane displacement of 9 to 11 m, compared to a predicted value of 7.8 to 11 m. The irradiance measurements made with the OCD clearly indicate that best tracking performance is obtained when the mean received signal is 2000 to 2200 counts. The best tracking performance resulted in an rms uncompensated error of 1.1 rad. The uncompensated error appeared to increase with either an increase or decrease in mean beacon-signal level. The rms uncompensated error determined by deriving the beacon displacement power spectral density from the beacon centroid-versustime data and the rejection function of the control loop yielded a higher value of 3.4 rad.

Biswas, A.↗