SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “parameter sensitivity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process‐Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process-based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data-constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process-based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam-derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO 2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field-measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter-response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post-calibration GPP R 2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R 2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

ecosys↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Bayesian regularization of inverse problems in vibrations and acoustics using noise-only measurements

Here, this paper studies Tikhonov regularization (ridge regression) parameter selection for problems in vibrations and acoustics. The selection method is based on a popular Bayesian method, but it incorporates measurements of sensor noise. The regularization parameter is closely related to the ratio of system input energy to noise energy, so noise measurements inform the inference procedure and improve parameter identification. In cases where standard Bayesian regularization identifies zero as the optimal regularization parameter, noise measurements guarantee a unique nonzero optimum. Sufficient theoretical criteria are developed for this guarantee. The method is verified in even-determined and under-determined configurations in an acoustic source localization simulation and a vibration load identification experiment. It is shown to yield significant improvements over existing empirical Bayesian regularization. Improvements are larger in the even-determined case and smaller in the under-determined case, wherein the inverse solution is less sensitive to the regularization parameter.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Refining water and carbon fluxes modeling in terrestrial ecosystems via plant hydraulics integration

Plant hydraulics substantially affects terrestrial water and carbon cycles by modulating water transport and carbon assimilation. Despite improved drought simulations in certain ecosystems through their integration into land surface models (LSMs), the broader application of plant hydraulics in diverse ecosystems and hydroclimates is still underexplored. Here, in this study, we implemented the recently developed Noah-Multiparameterization Land Surface Model (Noah-MP LSM) equipped with a plant hydraulics scheme (Noah-MP-PHS) across 40 FLUXNET sites globally. Employing the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona (SCE-UA) auto-calibration algorithm, we optimized key plant hydraulics parameters for these sites spanning eight vegetation types in both arid and humid climates. Noah-MP-PHS significantly improves the simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) by better representing atmospheric and soil water stress compared to traditional soil hydraulic schemes (SHSs, such as Noah and CLM). The augmented Noah-MP-PHS models reduce surface flux overestimation and underestimation, exhibiting an average increase of 0.14 and 0.15 in Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) compared to Noah and CLM, respectively. The explicit consideration of plant capacitance in PHS reveals substantial deep-layer and nocturnal root water uptake especially under dry conditions. We employed eXplainable Machine learning (XML) to quantify the model’s relative sensitivity to newly introduced leaf-, stem and root-related parameters in PHS. The sensitivity analysis reveals a rise in root parameter importance and a decline in leaf and stem parameters as conditions shift from humid to arid. These findings indicate that as aridity states vary, the most influential parameters affecting surface fluxes variation may change in parameter calibration for PHS applications. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating plant hydraulics into LSMs to enhance simulations of terrestrial water and carbon dynamics. These findings are crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to global climate changes and guide the broader application of PHS at larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Peridynamic modeling of cementitious materials for nuclear waste management

Radioactive and hazardous waste generated from fuel processing plants, nuclear reactors, and hospitals, requires effective management strategies. Cementitious materials are widely applied for these needs, serving as structural materials, reactive barriers, or waste forms. In these applications cracking poses a significant risk to performance, driven by inconsistent shrinkage of the components and the varying strength and permeability of their interfaces. Traditional modeling approaches face challenges in representing the complex fracture behavior of cementitious materials due to the reliance on spatial derivatives and difficulties with mesh generation. Here, to overcome these limitations, we employ peridynamics, a novel continuum mechanics formulation that uses integrals to describe mechanical equilibrium, avoiding discontinuities associated with traditional methods. Through incorporation of a bi-linear softening model and quasistatics, an experimentally validated model for Portland cement concrete samples was created. Mechanical parameters, including compressive strength and elastic modulus were validated and variation due to aggregate packing was evaluated. Additionally, sensitivity analysis of the peridynamic parameters to the bulk material properties was established. The results lay the groundwork for evaluating the impact of unique conditions of cementitious waste forms that can be assessed to improve the reliability of waste management strategies.

Aggregates↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pair momentum dependence of a tilted source in heavy-ion collisions

In noncentral heavy-ion collisions, the particle-emitting source can be tilted away from the beam direction, an effect that becomes particularly significant at collision energies of a few GeV and lower. This phenomenon, manifest itself in many observables such as directed flow, polarization, and vorticity, is therefore important to investigate. Here, in this paper, we study the consistency between the tilt extracted directly from the freeze-out distribution of pions and the tilt parameter obtained using the azimuthally sensitive femtoscopy (asHBT) method. Using the Ultrarelativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics model, we demonstrate a strong dependence of the tilt parameter extracted with asHBT on the momentum of the particle pair. Considering the experimental challenges in accessing low particle momenta—where the tilt parameter extracted with asHBT closely matches the tilt of the freeze-out distribution of pions—we propose an exponential extrapolation method to obtain the tilt of the entire freeze-out distribution. This approach aims to enhance the accuracy of experimental measurements of tilt in noncentral heavy-ion collisions.

particle correlations & fluctuations↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification Enabled by Automatic Differentiation for Hydrodynamic Simulation of Shock‐to‐Detonation Transition in High Explosives

Quantifying the effects of uncertainty in a reactive burn model on the run-to-detonation time in high explosives (HEs) provides a robust methodology for assessing the probability of an HE failing the IHE qualification standard. Moreover, uncertainty quantification helps evaluate whether the model calibration accurately represents data outside the calibration set. This study uses a specialized hydrodynamic simulation code for modeling detonation to determine the run-to-detonation time of the HE PBX 9502 for various impact velocities. To quickly approximate uncertainties in the model, a surrogate was constructed using a Taylor series expansion centered at the mean of the input parameters. To obtain the sensitivities required for constructing the Taylor series, HYP-percomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented. HYPAD is a methodology for infusing existing codes with automatic differentiation capabilities by augmenting variables with one or more imaginary units to compute step-size independent partial derivatives. These derivatives are accurate to machine precision with respect to the implemented numerical algorithm, meaning their accuracy reflects that of the underlying method (e.g., integration or discretization schemes). Using reduced order modeling techniques, the mean and standard deviation of the run-to-detonation time of a shock within PBX 9502 were computed for a number of initial impact velocities. A weighted least squares regression was then performed to obtain a best fit curve and prediction interval for the computed statistics. Historical data points from explosively driven wedge tests were utilized to validate the prediction interval, ensuring its reliability in predicting future outcomes. With this prediction interval and a known safety constraint curve, the most probable point of failure and the probability of failure for the HE PBX 9502 were determined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Life-cycle analysis of offshore macroalgae production systems in the United States

Offshore macroalgae production offers the potential to provide valuable biomass for food, energy, and higher value products without the use of land or freshwater while using excess nutrients and carbon dioxide. To realize this potential, the Macroalgae Research Inspiring Novel Energy Resources program of the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy has initiated projects to develop advanced cultivation technologies that enable the cost- and energy-efficient production of macroalgal biomass. Here, this study addresses the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and energy return on investment for five U.S. offshore macroalgae production systems designed for deployment at the thousand-hectare scale using a detailed module developed within the GREET life-cycle analysis model for this study. The carbon intensity of macroalgae production system designs, expressed as kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per dry metric ton of algae harvested, vary widely from 49 to 220 and confirm that biomass productivity has the highest degree of sensitivity across the model parameters tested. Regardless of the system designs, the upstream and combustion emissions from fuel use are the key contributor (over 45 %) to carbon intensity, indicating that the use of low-carbon fuels (e.g., renewable diesel) could further reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Further studies need to specify the market opportunity and specific product slates for macroalgae to provide a complete picture of the environmental impacts of macroalgal feedstock.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Guided Optimization of SABRE Hyperpolarization for α-Ketoglutarate in Acetone–Water

Signal amplification by reversible exchange (SABRE) is a hyperpolarization method that polarizes target nuclei of metabolites quickly and efficiently. Recent SABRE advances, including Ace-SABRE, yield biocompatible, aqueous solutions of hyperpolarized markers for metabolic monitoring. Building on recent advancements, expanding the substrate scope of Ace-SABRE is desirable. However, SABRE polarization is sensitive to many different parameters; therefore, traditional optimization approaches are experimentally time-consuming. In this proof-of-concept application of machine learning (ML), Bayesian optimization (BO) is used for four important input parameters to model the complex SABRE dynamics while saving experimental time. The presented ML model also provides chemical insights that enable predictions of sample compositions for increased polarization levels. In this paper, we transition from an original average free polarization of p = ∼0.90% to a maximum observed free polarization of p = ∼6.6% for 1- 13 C alpha-ketoglutarate (AKG) with 13 C at natural abundance, utilizing both direct outputs as well as chemical insights revealed by the ML model.

Catalysts↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Effect of Chiral NN Parametrization on Nuclear Shapes From an Ab Initio Perspective

The ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell model naturally describes nuclear deformation and collectivity, and is therefore well-suited to studying the dynamics and coexistence of shapes in atomic nuclei. For the first time, we analyze how these features in low-lying states of 6 Li and 12 C are impacted by the underlying realistic nucleon-nucleon interaction. We find that the interaction parametrization has a notable but limited effect on collective shapes in the lowest 6 Li and 12 C states, while collective structures in the excited 2 + state of 12 C are significantly more sensitive to the interaction parameters and exhibits emergent shape coexistence.

Becker, Kevin S. [Louisiana State University, Bato↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid Simulations of FRC Merging and Compression

An improved understanding of field-reversed configuration (FRC) merging and stability in high acceleration and compression magnetic fields is needed to speed up the development of the pulsed fusion concept developed at Helion Energy. All previous theoretical and simulation work on FRC merging and compression was performed using two-dimensional (2D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. The results of novel 2D hybrid simulations (fluid electrons and full-orbit kinetic ions) of FRC merging and compression are presented. Results of kinetic and MHD simulations, computed using the HYM code, are compared and analyzed. In cases without axial magnetic compression, both the MHD and hybrid simulations show a high sensitivity to the initial parameters (i.e. FRC separation, velocity, normalized separatrix radius, and plasma viscosity), showing that FRCs with large elongation and separatrix radius either do not merge or merge partially, forming a doublet FRC. In conclusion, application of a mirror coil field at the FRC ends with increasing strength is shown to lead to fast and complete merging of the FRCs in MHD and kinetic simulations.

FRC↗

DOE OSTI2026

TRANSP-TGLF core predictive modeling of the JET DT baseline scenario

In recent years, an intense modeling activity has been focused on preparing and analyzing the second JET Deuterium–Tritium (D–T) experimental campaign DTE2. Among the numerous scientific outcomes of this campaign was the unique opportunity to test and validate the state of the art of modeling tools with fusion-relevant DT plasmas using the full metallic ITER-like wall in different scenarios. This work reports on the core predictive modeling of plasma density, electron and ion temperatures (n e , T e , T i ) performed using TRANSP (Pankin et al 2025 Comput. Phys. Commun. 312 109611) coupled with Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF)-SAT2 (Kinsey et al 2008 Phys. Plasmas 15 055908), (Staebler et al 2021 Nucl. Fusion 61 116007) for the JET D–T baseline scenario (I p = 3.5 MA, q 95 = 3, β N < 2, with pellet pacing) (Garzotti et al 2025 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 075011). The sensitivity to different input parameters, as the $\vec{E}$ x $\vec{B}$ shear parameterization and the values of the kinetic quantities at the boundary of the prediction domain (ρ = 0.85) has been assessed, identifying the confidence interval of the prediction results. In particular, the dependence of the electron density profile on the particle source parameters has been studied, identifying the ionization source as the main cause for the density gradient under-prediction obtained by TRANSP-TGLF, reported in (Hyun-Tae et al 2023 Nucl. Fusion 63 112004).

JET↗

DOE OSTI2024

New metric improving Bayesian calibration of a multistage approach studying hadron and inclusive jet suppression

We study parton energy-momentum exchange with the quark gluon plasma (QGP) within a multistage approach composed of in-medium Dokshitzer-Gribov-Lipatov-Altarelli-Parisi evolution at high virtuality, and (linearized) Boltzmann transport formalism at lower virtuality. This multistage simulation is then calibrated in comparison with high- p T charged hadrons, D mesons, and the inclusive jet nuclear modification factors, using Bayesian model-to-data comparison, to extract the virtuality-dependent transverse momentum broadening transport coefficient q ̂ . To facilitate this undertaking, we develop a quantitative metric for validating the Bayesian workflow, which is used to analyze the sensitivity of various model parameters to individual observables. The usefulness of this new metric in improving Bayesian model emulation is shown to be highly beneficial for future such analyses. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scalable dark matter searches using integrated photonics

Dark matter (DM) with masses of order an electronvolt or below can have a nonzero coupling to electromagnetism while being compatible with cosmological observations. In these models, the ambient DM behaves as a new classical source in Maxwell’s equations, which can excite potentially detectable electromagnetic (EM) fields in the laboratory. We propose a new integrated-photonics–based approach to search for dark matter candidates in the 0.1–few eV mass range. This approach offers a wide range of wavelength-scale devices like resonators and wave guides that are readily fabricated in large quantities, enabling a scalable and novel search. In particular, we demonstrate that refractive index-modulated resonators, such as etched/grooved microrings, or patterned slabs, support EM modes with efficient coupling to DM. When excited by DM, these modes are read out by coupling the resonators to a wave guide that terminates on a micron-scale–sized single photon detector, such as a single pixel of a low-noise charge-coupled device or a superconducting nanowire. We then estimate the sensitivity of this experimental concept in the context of axionlike particle and dark photon models of DM, demonstrating that nanophotonic confinement and scalability can extend dark matter sensitivity into previously unexplored parameter space.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian optimization scheme for the design of a nanofibrous high power target

High Power Targetry (HPT) R&D is critical in the context of increasing beam intensity and energy for next generation accelerators. Many target concepts and novel materials are being developed and tested for their ability to withstand extreme beam environments; the HPT R&D Group at Fermilab is developing an electrospun nanofiber material for this purpose. The performance of these nanofiber targets is sensitive to their construction parameters, such as the packing density of the fibers. Lowering the density improves the survival of the target, but reduces the secondary particle yield. Optimizing the lifetime and production efficiency of the target poses an interesting design problem, and in this paper we study the applicability of Bayesian optimization to its solution. We first describe how to encode the nanofiber target design problem as the optimization of an objective function, and how to evaluate that function with computer simulations. We then explain the optimization loop setup. Thereafter, we present the optimal design parameters suggested by the algorithm, and close with discussions of limitations and future refinements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Detectors and beam monitors based on wide bandgap semiconductors at cryogenic temperatures

Wide-bandgap semiconductors, such as single-crystal diamond and sapphire, can be used to measure the flux of passing particles through a particle-induced conductivity effect. We recently demonstrated a diamond-based, electrodeless electron beam halo monitor. This monitor utilized a thin diamond blade placed within an open, high-quality microwave resonator. The blade partially intercepted the beam and changes in the RF properties of the resonator were used to infer beam parameters. To enhance the sensitivity of our semiconductor sensors, we propose two new techniques: (1) biasing the semiconductor sensor to support avalanche multiplication of free carriers, and (2) operating at cryogenic temperatures to reduce intrinsic semiconductor losses and increase the mobility of induced carriers. These techniques are applicable not only to particle beam diagnostics but also to the detection of various types of ionizing radiation.

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Optimization Scheme for the Design of a Nanofibrous High Power Target

High Power Targetry (HPT) R\&D is critical in the context of increasing beam intensity and energy for next generation accelerators. Many target concepts and novel materials are being developed and tested for their ability to withstand extreme beam environments; the HPT R\&D Group at Fermilab is developing an electrospun nanofiber material for this purpose. The performance of these nanofiber targets is sensitive to their construction parameters, such as the packing density of the fibers. Lowering the density improves the survival of the target, but reduces the secondary particle yield. Optimizing the lifetime and production efficiency of the target poses an interesting design problem, and in this paper we study the applicability of Bayesian optimization to its solution. We first describe how to encode the nanofiber target design problem as the optimization of an objective function, and how to evaluate that function with computer simulations. We then explain the optimization loop setup. Thereafter, we present the optimal design parameters suggested by the algorithm, and close with discussions of limitations and future refinements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probing Non-Standard Interactions in NOvA with Bayesian MCMC Methods

We present a search for non-standard neutrino interactions (NSI) using NOvA's joint $\nu_e$ appearance and $\nu_\mu$ disappearance samples in both neutrino and antineutrino beam modes. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to map the posterior distribution over NSI parameters $\varepsilon_{e\mu}$, $\varepsilon_{e\tau}$, and $\varepsilon_{\mu\tau}$, simultaneously with standard oscillation parameters. We investigate the effect of prior choice for the complex NSI parameters and present projected sensitivity to off-diagonal NSI.

Huang, Xiaoyan [Mississippi U.]↗