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At least 109 records · Page 6

Model-based Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Improved Physical Security Design: A Prototype

Prior work in FY24 developed an adversarial AI agent aid in path analysis of physical protection systems. This agent, trained using a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, was able to successfully learn the most vulnerable path in facilities. It was able to extend the current state of practice for physical protection design by exhibiting dynamic behavior based on current environmental conditions. Whereas PathTrace largely performs a static, graph-based analysis, the AI agent was able to make decisions based on relative position in the facility, current conditions (was the adversarial agnet discovered?), and proximity to secondary targets. The agent demonstrated some novel capabilities, but had limitations that need to be resolved before it can be used for production purposes. For example, the adversarial agent generalizes poorly and takes a relatively long time to train. Nonetheless, there is still considerable promise for developing the adversarial agent further in order to explore even richer, more dynamic behaviors (e.g., adversary motivations, environmental debris, and more). This work considers a complementary idea; development of a planning agent. The planning agent is envisioned as an auto-complete-like tool that can help accelerate security system design by human experts. The agent would respect existing barriers and sensors placed by a human expert while offering cost-effective suggestions (i.e., implicitly balancing effectiveness with cost) to improve the design. The goal is for this agent to be part of an expert’s toolbox, not to totally upend the current state-of-practice, or to displace human experts. The ultimate goal would be concurrent training of both the adversarial and planning agent together, to learn entirely through self-play. This would represent an entirely new way of performing system deign. We selected a hierarchical, model-based reinforcement learning algorithm to serve as the planning agent. This is an extension of concepts used in the prior FY24 adversarial agent work. There, we had a single agent acting an environment. Here, we have two different sub-agents (policies), working together, to form a complete agent. There is a manager policy, which can select abstract goals on slower time scales, and a worker, which performs primitive actions to reach goals selected by the manager. It is worth noting that this class of algorithm is challenging to work with. From our understanding, our work is one of the first successful uses of model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) in nuclear energy1 , and likely the first hierarchical model-based reinforcement learning application in nuclear energy. Further, this work is one of the first known attempts to apply AI to perform a design tasks in nuclear energy. Consequently, there were significant implementation challenges and the bulk of the work was focused on successful implementation and algorithm design. The results presented here are very low technology readiness level as a consequence of the lack of related literature, but still represent a significant step forward in the pursuit of applied AI for design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

BigData Express: Toward Predictable, Schedulable, and High-Performance Data Transfer [Slides]

BigData Express: a schedulable, predictable, and high-performance data transfer service. A peer-to-peer, scalable, and extensible data transfer model; A visually appealing, easy-to-use web portal; A high-performance data transfer engine; On-demand provisioning of end-to-end network paths with guaranteed QoS; Robust and flexible error handling; CILogon-based security (certificate version); A rich set of REST APIs to support scientific workflows

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Impact of Blockchain Delay on Grid-Tied Solar Inverter Performance: Preprint

This paper investigates the impact of the delay resulting from a blockchain, a promising security measure, for a hierarchical control system of inverters connected to the grid. The blockchain communication network is designed at the secondary control layer for resilience against cyberattacks. To represent the latency in the communication channel, a model is developed based on the complexity of the blockchain framework. Taking this model into account, this work evaluates the plant’s performance subject to communication delays, introduced by the blockchain, among the hierarchical control agents. In addition, this article considers an optimal model-based control strategy that performs the system’s internal control loop. The work shows that the blockchain’s delay size influences the convergence of the power supplied by the inverter to the reference at the point of common coupling. In the results section, real-time simulations on OPAL-RT are performed to test the resilience of two parallel inverters with increasing blockchain complexity.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

An Assessment of the Usability of Machine Learning Based Tools for the Security Operations Center

Gartner, a large research and advisory company, anticipates that by 2024 80% of security operation centers (SOCs) will use machine learning (ML) based solutions to enhance their operations. 1 1 https://www.ciodive.com/news/how-data-science-tools-can-lighten-the-load-for-cybersecurity-teams/572209/ In light of such widespread adoption, it is vital for the research community to identify and address usability concerns. This work presents the results of the first in situ usability assessment of ML-based tools. With the support of the US Navy, we leveraged the national cyber range-a large, air-gapped cyber testbed equipped with state-of-the-art network and user emulation capabilities-to study six US Naval SOC analysts' usage of two tools. Our analysis identified several serious usability issues, including multiple violations of established usability heuristics for user interface design. We also discovered that analysts lacked a clear mental model of how these tools generate scores, resulting in mistrust a and/or misuse of the tools themselves. Surprisingly, we found no correlation between analysts' level of education or years of experience and their performance with either tool, suggesting that other factors such as prior background knowledge or personality play a significant role in ML-based tool usage. Our findings demonstrate that ML-based security tool vendors must put a renewed focus on working with analysts, both experienced and inexperienced, to ensure that their systems are usable and useful in real-world security operations settings.

Oesch, T↗

Nevada National Security Site Environmental Report 2016

This Nevada National Security Site Environmental Report (NNSSER) was prepared to satisfy DOE Order DOE O 231.1B, “Environment, Safety and Health Reporting.” Its purpose is to (1) report compliance status with environmental standards and requirements, (2) present results of environmental monitoring of radiological and nonradiological effluents, (3) report estimated radiological doses to the public from releases of radioactive material, (4) summarize environmental incidents of noncompliance and actions taken in response to them, (5) describe the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) Environmental Management System and characterize its performance, and (6) highlight significant environmental programs and efforts. This NNSSER summarizes data and compliance status for calendar year 2016 at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) and its two Nevada-based support facilities, the North Las Vegas Facility (NLVF) and the Remote Sensing Laboratory–Nellis (RSL-Nellis). It also addresses environmental restoration (ER) projects conducted at the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) and the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). NNSA/NFO directs the management and operation of the NNSS and six sites across the nation. In addition to the NNSA itself, the six sites include two in Nevada (NLVF and RSL-Nellis) and four in other states (RSL-Andrews in Maryland, Livermore Operations in California, Los Alamos Operations in New Mexico, and Special Technologies Laboratory in California). Los Alamos, Lawrence Livermore, and Sandia National Laboratories are the principal organizations that sponsor and implement the nuclear weapons programs at the NNSS. National Security Technologies, LLC (NSTec), is the current Management and Operating contractor accountable for the successful execution of work and ensuring that work is performed in compliance with environmental regulations. The six sites all provide support to enhance the NNSS as a location for its multiple missions. The three major NNSS missions include National Security/Defense, Environmental Management, and Nondefense. The major programs that support these missions are Stockpile Stewardship and Management, Nonproliferation and Counterterrorism, Nuclear Emergency Response, Strategic Partnership Projects, Environmental Restoration, Waste Management, Conservation and Renewable Energy, Other Research and Development, and Infrastructure. The major facilities that support the programs include the U1a Facility, Big Explosives Experimental Facility (BEEF), Device Assembly Facility, Dense Plasma Focus Facility, Joint Actinide Shock Physics Experimental Research Facility, Radiological/Nuclear Countermeasures Test and Evaluation Complex, Nonproliferation Test and Evaluation Complex (NPTEC), Radiological/Nuclear Weapons of Mass Destruction Incident Exercise Site, the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC), and the Area 3 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Characterization of Flexible Operation Performance of N-R HES Components in support of a Model-Based Pre-conditioner

The concept of Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems (N-R HES) is meant to combine different energy technologies in synergistic ways to achieve a more secure and economical energy supply. The N-R HES unit is constituted by a small-sized pressurized water reactor coupled with a Rankine energy conversion cycle, a gas-fired turbine, an energy storage component, and a hydrogen production plant.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Maintenance Plan for the Performance Assessments and Composite Analyses for the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites at the Nevada National Security Site (Rev.3)

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management, requires that performance assessments (PAs) and composite analyses (CAs) for low-level radioactive waste (LLW) disposal facilities be maintained by the responsible field office. This plan describes the activities performed to maintain the PA and the CA for the Area 3 and Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Sites (RWMSs) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The plan is based on DOE Order 435.1 Radioactive Waste Management (DOE 2007), DOE Manual 435.1-1, Radioactive Waste Management Manual (DOE 2011), and DOE Standard DOE-STD-5002-2017, Disposal Authorization Statement and Tank Closure Documentation (DOE 2017). The facility’s Disposal Authorization Statement (DAS) specifies conditions for the continuing operation of a LLW facility. The DAS is issued based on a review of the facility's PA, CA, the maintenance plan, preliminary closure plan, and preliminary monitoring plan. The DAS specifies the limits and conditions on construction, design, operations, and closure of the low-level waste facility based on these reviews. The Maintenance Plan uses an Unreviewed Disposal Question (UDQ)/Unreviewed Composite Analysis Question (UCAQ) change control process to identify, evaluate, and control planned or discovered changes affecting the PA, CA, DAS, or other documents composing the Radioactive Waste Management Basis (RWMB). The UDQ/UCAQ process uses the PA and CA GoldSim models to calculate updated results, assess the significance of changes, and to assess the need to revise the PA, CA, or DAS. In addition to the change control process, the Maintenance Plan requires an annual review of all changes and an annual assessment of the need to revise RWMB documents, plans, and programs. The cumulative effect of all changes is assessed annually by preparing a revised PA and CA baseline model that is used to update PA and CA results. The updated results are used to assess compliance with the PA performance objectives and the CA dose constraint, and to assess the need to revise the PAs, CAs, and other documents, plans, and programs supporting the RWMB. An Annual Summary Report documenting the results and conclusions of the annual review is prepared and submitted to DOE.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Epistemology of voltage control in DER-rich power system

Despite the recent development of several scalable, robust, and resilient control approaches with superior convergence properties considering an increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs), cognitive oversights often simplify several aspects of the cyber–physical power system in the controller development. Here, following the identification of the limitations of classical controller definitions, we justify alternative definitions of voltage control approaches classifiers considering three inter-disciplinary domains: (i) power system, (ii) optimization and decision-making, and (iii) networking and cyber-security, to develop a taxonomy for helping in real-world comparative performance analysis and deployability of these controllers. We observe that classical and introduced domain-based definitions together can better classify the control algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design of Zone-Based Hierarchical Protection System for 100% Renewable Microgrids

Design of a reliable and secure protection system for a 100% renewable microgrid with only inverter-based resources (IBRs), is quite challenging. Most of the existing protection schemes in the state-of-the-art are suitable for microgrids with mixed-type of distributed energy resources (DERs) that covers both rotating machine-based DERs as well as IBR-based DERs, where the fault current level is moderately high. Due to drastic reduction in fault current level based on mode of operation and the variation of the low fault current level based on the operating level of the IBRs, the existing protection schemes face critical challenges, in case of a 100% renewable microgrid. This article proposes a zone-based hierarchical protection scheme that partitions a microgrid into various zones-of-protection and assigns speed-based hierarchical protection schemes in order to address the fundamental challenges of such microgrids. The performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated using time-domain simulation study on a microgrid test system. The results corroborates that the proposed hierarchical zone-based protection scheme exhibits enhanced reliability, security and dependability while tested with various fault cases (fault types, locations, and impedances), and non-fault cases during both grid-tied and islanded mode.

grid-forming inverter↗

Design of Zone-Based Hierarchical Protection System for 100% Renewable Microgrids: Preprint

Design of a reliable and secure protection system for a 100% renewable microgrid with only inverter-based resources (IBRs), is quite challenging. Most of the existing protection schemes in the state-of-the-art are suitable for microgrids with mixed-type of distributed energy resources (DERs) that covers both rotating machine-based DERs as well as IBR-based DERs, where the fault current level is moderately high. Due to drastic reduction in fault current level based on mode of operation and the variation of the low fault current level based on the operating level of the IBRs, the existing protection schemes face critical challenges, in case of a 100% renewable microgrid. This article proposes a zone-based hierarchical protection scheme that partitions a microgrid into various zones-of-protection and assigns speed-based hierarchical protection schemes in order to address the fundamental challenges of such microgrids. The performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated using time-domain simulation study on a microgrid test system. The results corroborates that the proposed hierarchical zone-based protection scheme exhibits enhanced reliability, security and dependability while tested with various fault cases (fault types, locations, and impedances), and non-fault cases during both grid-tied and islanded mode.

grid-forming inverter↗

Integrated Solutions for Optimized Performance (ISOP) Final Technical Report

The goal of this project was to demonstrate technical feasibility of an integrated approach for deep energy retrofits by packaging innovative technologies with smart communicating controls that represent the next generation of energy efficiency. The integrated solutions for optimized performance (ISOP) package integrates (i) advanced lighting and plug load controls; (ii) intelligent daylight harvesting through automated self-powered shades and window films; (iii) advanced HVAC controls sequences (ASHRAE Guideline (GDL) 36); and (iv) fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) and continuous commissioning (CCx) using advanced analytics. These technologies address energy use across multiple building end uses that represent more than 60% of the energy consumption in all commercial buildings. The project was structured to be implemented over three budget periods: Budget Period 1 scope included site selection, project design, site-specific customization of technology packages, procurement of technologies, initiation of installation of technologies, the development of a measurement and verification plan and collection of pre-retrofit data collection. The first year go/no-go decision was based on securing host sites representing 250,000 sq. ft. of occupied operational spaces, savings analysis, technology procurement and initiation of installation. Budget Period 2 planned to complete technology installations and initiate data collection of post-retrofit performance data. The second year go/no-go was to be the completion of technology installations and commissioning, metering and data collecting to support the requirements laid out in site specific M&V plans. Budget Period 3 planned to collect and analyze post-retrofit performance data and provide data and reporting to support energy efficiency rebate programs. After the team completed activities planned for Budget Period 1, the team reached a Go/No-Go Decision Point. At that point, TRC recommended that DOE discontinue the project without prejudice due to challenges with securing demonstration sites to meet the full 250,000 sf of occupied operational spaces and DOE concurred. In Budget Period 1, the TRC team developed criteria to recruit and evaluate potential demonstration host sites. TRC worked with Princeton University, the project demonstration partner, to identify buildings on their campus as potential candidates for the demonstration. Following the selection of demonstration sites, the TRC team customized energy technology packages according to the needs and characteristics of each site. TRC defined technology specifications, identified vendors, and conducted analysis to estimate energy and cost savings potential. The project team then developed schedules for technology procurement processes and scheduled for installation at all selected demonstration sites. The project team worked with Princeton University and DOE to develop an approach to verify energy savings achieved through measurement and verification (M&V) 2.0 methods. Princeton University initiated open bids to procure the necessary materials and installation contractors. Bid results came back higher than estimates due to a couple of factors – lack of familiarity of the bidders with the proposed technologies and lack of local trained installers to execute the installation of these new measures. Due to the higher bids, projects no longer met the internal cost-effectiveness criteria used by Princeton to proceed with procurement of the full suite of technologies as proposed in ISOP. Princeton had already procured parts of the ISOP package as part of a campus-wide initiative for FDD and lighting retrofits, but with the higher costs for other ISOP components, Princeton could no longer commit to the full ISOP package on the selected sites. Based on this, the team reached the Go/No-Go decision point, where they decided not to proceed with the project. Princeton is separately installing portions of the ISOP package where they individually meet Princeton’s payback criteria but on a different schedule than would have been needed for the DOE ISOP project. The team has learned several lessons from project progress in the first budget period. The team will utilize these lessons in future projects, as should any team which proceeds with a project around the ISOP technology. The first lesson is that more information about the proposed sites is required earlier in the process (perhaps even at the proposal stage) in order to have a successful demonstration. Technical details not evident earlier in the process (such as the TLED limitations for ALCS) can derail project execution. The second lesson is that pricing of emerging technologies is highly variable due to lack of familiarity of local installers and distributor with the proposed technologies as well as alternate bids using products they were more familiar with, but that cost more than the ones proposed by TRC. Finally, the last major lesson is that the host site’s internal project criteria is of critical importance. Based on these higher installed costs and lack of an informed installer base for the products proposed for this project, the project does not meet Princeton’s simple payback goals of five years.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Fully Homomorphic Encryption

This code implements a Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) system, enabling secure computation on encrypted data without requiring decryption. It supports encryption, decryption, and homomorphic operations like matrix multiplication and addition. This code is adaptable for integrating FHE into linear-time invariant (LTI) systems, including digital control and filtering. With proper configuration from subject matter expertise, encrypted system parameters and signals can be manipulated to perform tasks like state updates, output calculations, and convolution in the encrypted domain. By preserving the structure of LTI systems while ensuring privacy, the framework facilitates secure applications in areas such as autonomous systems, signal processing, and industrial automation. The code initializes the encryption system using parameters provided in the env dictionary. These parameters include the ciphertext modulus, key dimension, plaintext fixed-point scaling factor, and noise bound. During initialization, a secret key is generated, which is essential for encrypting and decrypting data securely. The modular design allows users to tailor these parameters to specific use cases or security requirements. The code implements multiple cryptographic schemes. The learning with errors (LWE) encryption method encodes cleartext message to their plaintext fixed-point representation then encrypted into ciphertext space with additive noise. This noise ensures the security of the scheme, relying on the computational hardness of the LWE problem. The code also includes the Gentry-Sahai-Waters (GSW) scheme based off the LWE problem. Homomorphic matrix multiplication is performed between the LWE and GSW to encrypted data. This is achieved using a decomposition function on the LWE ciphertext during the multiplication operation. For higher-dimensional data, the code includes a method to encrypt entire matrices (GSWMat) using GSW encryption. These encrypted matrices can then be used for homomorphic matrix multiplications (MatMult). The decryption function uses the secret key to recover the original plaintext, removing the added noise and scaling that was originally applied during encryption.

Lois, Roberts [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗

The Prompt Fission Uranium Neutron Spectrum (PFUNS) Experiment: Critical Configurations and Irradiations

The objective of the Prompt Fission Uranium Neutron Spectrum (PFUNS) experiment is to reduce the uncertainty of the Prompt Fission Neutron Spectrum (PFNS) of 235 U above 8 MeV. The experiment was performed at the DOE National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) at the Nevada National Security Site. To meet the experiment objective, activation foils were placed in a central void region of a critical configuration consisting of concentric highly enriched uranium (HEU) metal hemishells. The set of activation foils were chosen based on threshold reactions to neutron energies across the fission spectrum, but especially those in the high energy tail of the fission spectrum. PFUNS was performed on the Planet critical assembly machine at NCERC and uses the Rocky Flats (RF) HEU hemishells. PFUNS has similarities to the Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) experiment conducted at NCERC in 2021, which also used RF hemishells, but contains a large central cavity to allow for a sample plate to be inserted. This large void means that much more HEU is needed to achieve a critical configuration (108 kg for PFUNS versus 59 kg for MUSiC). This work describes the 2024 experiment execution of four critical configurations and two irradiations for the PFUNS project.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Dual-Phase Malicious User Detection Scheme for IM-OFDMA Systems Using IQ Imbalance

Physical-layer security techniques have contributed to the achievement of various security objectives in an efficient and lightweight manner. Thus, these techniques have been widely considered for limited-resource networks such as Internet of Things networks. Among the different security objectives, malicious user detection by exploiting physical-layer parameters has demonstrated efficient performance. In this work, malicious user detection in the recently proposed index modulation-based orthogonal frequency division multiple access (IM-OFDMA) is addressed. The proposed malicious user detection scheme exploits the hardware impairments, especially the in-phase and quadrature imbalance parameters, for both legitimate and malicious users to design a dual-phase efficient detection scheme. The proposed scheme accounts for the special characteristics of IM-OFDMA transmission that are different from other multiple-access techniques. The performance of the proposed scheme was evaluated considering detection probability and false alarm probability performance metrics. Moreover, closed-form expressions of these metrics were derived for both phases and were validated by Monte Carlo simulation results under different configurations of IM-OFDMA systems.

Alaca, Ozgur [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000153713758)↗

Role of On-Site Generation in Carbon Emissions and Utility Bill Savings under Different Electric Grid Scenarios

Energy-efficient and sustainable technologies are necessary to lower energy and carbon footprints. Many technologies are being pursued to meet the increasing energy demand in buildings. An attractive option is efficient utilization of available energy resources, including renewables, to support current and future building energy needs while targeting grid resiliency, energy, and environmental security at an affordable cost via on-site cogeneration-based approaches. This must include energy-efficient technologies with lower greenhouse gas emissions and optimized cost, performance, and reliability. This paper presents the economic and environmental benefits associated with power technologies such as thermionics and solid oxide fuel cells. Hybrid configurations consisting of heat pumps, power systems, and renewable photovoltaics in cogeneration and trigeneration modes of operation are presented. The role of such technologies in lowering CO2 emissions while improving energy resiliency and serving the needs of underprivileged communities is discussed. The key barriers of affordability and potential solutions for large-scale implementation of these promising technologies are reviewed. Case studies demonstrating the influence of power rating, electrical efficiency, design configuration, carbon dioxide intensity of the grid, and fuel on annual greenhouse gas emissions are presented for residential and commercial buildings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CWA 15793 2011 Planning and Implementation Tool

This software, built on an open source platform called Electron (runs on Chromium and Node.js), is designed to assist organizations in the implementation of a biorisk management system consistent with the requirements of the international, publicly available guidance document CEN Workshop Agreement 15793:2011 (CWA 15793). The software includes tools for conducting organizational gap analysis against CWA 15793 requirements, planning tools to support the implementation of CWA 15793 requirements, and performance monitoring support. The gap analysis questions are based on the text of CWA 15793, and its associated guidance document, CEN Workshop Agreement 16393:2012. The authors have secured permission from the publisher of CWA 15793, the European Committee for Standardization (CEN), to use language from the document in the software, with the understanding that the software will be made available freely, without charge.

Gross, Alan↗

Implementation and Performance Evaluation of a Community-Scale Adobe Evaporative Cooling Chamber for Vegetable Preservation

The construction of evaporative coolers in remote areas can increase the longevity of vegetables, improving food security and the local economy of small farmers in remote, impoverished communities without access to electricity. This work presents a 1:1 scale prototype of an 8 m 3 (2.1 × 2.1 × 2.3 m) stabilized adobe evaporative cooler, with a design based on the appropriate technology framework, and it was built as a chamber using double adobe walls, filled with wet sand, to induce evaporative cooling. Furthermore, the paper presents the prototype’s performance evaluation. The tests were carried out in the dry and wet states, with different volumes of water. The results show good performance compared with other prototypes, although the optimum watering volume could not be determined because of the high climate variance (outside temperature and humidity) that prevented the repetition of the experiments in identical operating conditions. Stabilized adobe proved to be a good choice for use in the cooler, even when subject to moisture accumulation, indicating an estimated long lifetime for the cooler. The data obtained about the efficiency of evaporative cooling show that the cooler, as expected, has its best performance on the hottest and driest days, reducing the internal temperature (up to 13.24 °C) and managing to keep the internal humidity. The cost, efficiency, durability, and replicability make the proposed evaporative cooler a feasible solution for food preservation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Inferring adversarial behaviour in cyber‐physical power systems using a Bayesian attack graph approach

Abstract Highly connected smart power systems are subject to increasing vulnerabilities and adversarial threats. Defenders need to proactively identify and defend new high‐risk access paths of cyber intruders that target grid resilience. However, cyber‐physical risk analysis and defense in power systems often requires making assumptions on adversary behaviour, and these assumptions can be wrong. Thus, this work examines the problem of inferring adversary behaviour in power systems to improve risk‐based defense and detection. To achieve this, a Bayesian approach for inference of the Cyber‐Adversarial Power System (Bayes‐CAPS) is proposed that uses Bayesian networks (BNs) to define and solve the inference problem of adversarial movement in the grid infrastructure towards targets of physical impact. Specifically, BNs are used to compute conditional probabilities to queries, such as the probability of observing an event given a set of alerts. Bayes‐CAPS builds initial Bayesian attack graphs for realistic power system cyber‐physical models. These models are adaptable using collected data from the system under study. Then, Bayes‐CAPS computes the posterior probabilities of the occurrence of a security breach event in power systems. Experiments are conducted that evaluate algorithms based on time complexity, accuracy and impact of evidence for different scales and densities of network. The performance is evaluated and compared for five realistic cyber‐physical power system models of increasing size and complexities ranging from 8 to 300 substations based on computation and accuracy impacts.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗