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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗
NASA NTRS2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

mineral dust↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Thermo-Hydro Modeling and Neural Network Surrogate Development for Thermal Resource Assessment of the Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery

The Galleries-to-Calories Geobattery concept explores the use of abandoned coal mine workings for large-scale thermal energy transport and storage. The system involves injecting waste heat from a supercomputing facility into flooded mine galleries, where groundwater flow can store and transport thermal energy for potential recovery in downgradient district heating and cooling applications. To evaluate the feasibility and performance of the Geobattery under geological and operational uncertainty, we developed a suite of stochastic thermo-hydrological (TH) simulations using Monte Carlo sampling of key uncertain parameters (e.g., permeability, porosity, thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) and operating conditions (e.g., injection rate, injection temperature). Results identified injection rate and temperature as the most influential parameters governing thermal front propagation, while the geometry of the room-and-pillar structure played a critical role in directing the extent and orientation of thermal advancement. Optimal combinations of material properties for maximizing heat recovery were also determined. To address the high computational cost of coupled-process stochastic modeling, we trained a neural network surrogate model on 24,000 physics-based realizations, achieving an R² > 0.99 and MAE < 0.1 for temperature predictions at monitoring locations. This surrogate enabled an additional 100,000 realizations for global sensitivity analysis and probabilistic thermal resource assessment. The integrated stochastic physics–surrogate modeling framework offers a computationally efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty, identifying key drivers, and informing early-stage design decisions for Geobattery systems.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data, model inputs, and analysis scripts associated with a manuscript on stream intermittency controls across spatial scales in Pacific Northwest watersheds

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript "Hydroclimatic Memory and Watershed Template Shape Stream Intermittency: Multi-scale Attribution Using Process-based Simulation and Explainable ML" by Niroula et al. (2026), submitted to Water Resources Research (WRR). The study investigates the dominant controls on stream intermittency across local, reach, and watershed scales using a coupled process-based simulation and explainable machine-learning framework. Long-term daily simulations from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) were used to generate wetness states and ponded-depth responses over river-corridor cells. These ATS outputs were then aggregated across scales and used to train XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to quantify the relative importance of hydroclimatic forcings, watershed template attributes, and antecedent-memory effects in shaping intermittency behavior. The analysis is carried out for three contrasting Pacific Northwest watersheds: Oak Creek (OCW), American River Watershed (ARW), and H.J. Andrews (HJA). Across these testbeds, the package contains ATS-ready watershed inputs, ATS run configuration and selected output files, model-evaluation data products, intermittency-analysis datasets, machine-learning target-feature tables, SHAP outputs, and notebooks used to organize, analyze, and visualize results. At a high level, the package documents a workflow in which ATS provides the physically based simulation backbone and explainable machine learning is used as a post-processing attribution tool. The contents are intended to support interpretation of the manuscript figures and results, provide context for how intermittency metrics were generated at multiple scales, and preserve the key artifacts needed to understand and reuse the analysis workflow. The package contains a high-level directory summary file (`summary.txt`) and four main content folders (1) `evaluation_plots` contains evaluation figures and supporting evaluation datasets; (2) `intermittency_plots` contains intermittency-focused analysis notebook and prepared datasets; (3) `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` contains ML training inputs, SHAP outputs, and figure-generation notebooks; and (4) `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` contains ATS model setup materials, forcing inputs, geometry, and selected run files. More specifically, the `evaluation_plots` folder contains the notebook used for ATS evaluation plotting and site-specific evaluation datasets. These include evapotranspiration and water-balance products for three watersheds, as well as an Oak Creek field-measurement discharge file. The `intermittency_plots` folder contains the notebook used for intermittency analysis and the prepared datasets used to analyze intermittent and non-intermittent wetness behavior across the study watersheds. The `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` folder contains notebooks and outputs for the machine-learning and explainability workflow. This includes the main XGBoost and SHAP notebook(s), a beeswarm plotting notebook, target-feature tables for machine-learning training, SHAP summary tables, and per-sample SHAP value archives. The `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` folder contains ATS-related watershed inputs and supporting materials. This includes mesh and shape products, ATS-readable LAI and meteorological forcing inputs, selected ATS spinup and transient-run files, and a watershed workflow example notebook. Subdirectories are organized by watershed where applicable.All files are .cpg (codepage files), .csv (comma-separated values), .dbf (database files), .exo (Exodus mesh format), .h5 (HDF5 format), .ipynb (Jupyter notebooks), .pkl (Python pickle), .prj (projection files), .sh (shell scripts), .shp (shapefile geometry), .shx (shapefile index), .txt (text files), or .xml (markup data).

Advanced Terrestrial Simulator↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cluster Dynamics Simulations of Intra-Granular Fission Gas Bubble Size and Pressure Evolution in UO 2

Fission gases such as xenon (Xe) play a critical role in determining the behavior and response of nuclear fuel. Given that Xe has little solubility in UO 2 , it accumulates and forms bubbles, which significantly impact fuel performance. Intra- and inter-granular bubble nucleation and growth can lead to fuel swelling, and once bubbles interconnect at grain boundaries, fission gas can be released into the plenum. At low temperatures, limited uranium vacancy mobility can restrict swelling, therefore causing the bubbles to become highly pressurized. Consequently, this can induce micro-cracking, promote fission gas release (increasing the likelihood of cladding failure), and even lead to fuel pulverization under accident conditions such as a loss of coolant accident. As bubble evolution is strongly influenced by local temperature and fission rate, markedly different behavior occurs across the radial profile of the fuel pellet. Capturing the mechanisms that underpin bubble evolution is therefore important to predict these behaviors in the fuel. Previous models describing important mechanisms informed by lower length scale simulations have been developed under the NEAMS program. These can describe the evolution of a single bubble type (i.e., single value for radius and pressure) at each position in the pellet, for instance using the Centipede cluster dynamic code. However, in reality, a full distribution in bubble sizes and pressures exists within the microstructure at a given position in the pellet. To address this the cluster dynamics code Xolotl, which can predict Xe and vacancy phase space (i.e., bubble distributions) for intra-granular bubbles, has been used before. Prior work benchmarked the Xolotl code against the Centipede cluster dynamics code to ensure compatibility and to verify that mobile defect properties are adequately transferred between the two codes, along with some physics improvements. In this work, we go further by introducing a physics-based set of improvements that will allow us to accurately predict bubble size distributions and internal bubble pressures under representative UO 2 irradiation conditions. The improvements include (i) coupling bubble-defect reaction energies to a virial equation of state (EOS), (ii) including a bubble surface tension contribution, (iii) incorporating radiation-induced re-solution of Xe and vacancies, (iv) enabling pressure-driven dislocation loop punching through an effective emission of interstitial clusters informed by interstitial loop energetics, (v) accounting for radiation induced athermal diffusion of Xe, and (vi) implementing a Booth-type grain boundary sink representation for all mobile defects and defect clusters. After these modifications, we observe good agreement of Xolotl fission gas bubble size and concentration predictions with legacy experimental measurements. Additionally, it allows the distribution of Xe bubble pressures and radius to also be predicted and compared to data produced through the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) program. Here, we have done this by running simulations under conditions similar to the AFC post-irradiation examination (PIE) samples irradiated at North Anna 2 light water reactor (LWR). Our results shows excellent agreement with these experimental measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling as Catalysts for Next-Generation Breakthroughs

The Presidential Symposium (PRES) at the 2025 Fall Meeting, hosted by the President’s Office and Energy and Fuels Division, American Chemical Society (ACS) in Washington, DC, brought together a diverse group of chemists, engineers, and materials scientists working in battery materials & systems, automation and artificial intelligence from academia, industry, and national laboratories. The accelerating demand for high-performance, scalable, and sustainable energy storage has catalyzed a paradigm shift in how materials are dis-covered, devices are engineered, and systems are optimized. This Presidential Symposium, entitled “Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling Driving Next-Gen Breakthroughs”, brings together global leaders to unveil transformative strategies anchored in the AAA framework: Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Advanced Modeling. Artificial Intelligence is redefining the frontiers of energy storage by enabling predictive design, real-time optimization, and intelligent control across diverse chemistries and architectures. Automation is streamlining the synthesis, characterization, and testing of battery materials, dramatically accelerating innovation cycles and unlocking scalable solutions for grid and mobility applications. Advanced Modeling, spanning atomic to system-level scales, provides unprecedented insight into electrochemical dynamics, degradation pathways, and thermal behavior, particularly when coupled with physics-informed machine learning and digital twin technologies. Digital twins, in turn, leverage the AAA framework by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and AI predictions into dynamic virtual replicas, enabling proactive diagnostics, optimization, and system resilience. Together, these synergistic pillars are not only re-shaping the scientific landscape but also forging a new era of reproducible, data-driven, and resilient energy storage innovation. In conclusion, this symposium marks a pivotal moment in the convergence of computational intelligence and experimental rigor, charting the course for next-generation breakthroughs in lithium-ion, solid-state, and flow battery technologies.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Holistic Microstructure Control Strategies in Photopolymerization‐Induced Phase Separation of Acrylate Systems

Open porous materials, known for their large surface area and interconnected structures, are essential in various applications, including batteries, ion exchange, catalysis, filtration, and electronic waste recycling. A critical aspect of the functionality of porous membranes is the precise control of pore size and morphology. Photopolymerization-induced phase separation (photo-PIPS) offers a convenient and versatile methods for creating porous structures. However, controlling the porous morphology remains challenging due to the complex interplay between thermodynamics, polymerization kinetics, and monomer structures, which makes it difficult to establish the relationship between processing conditions and resulting morphology in photo-PIPS. Herein, a physics-based phase-field model capable of generating and characterizing the microstructures of porous materials based on both average and localized features is developed. Using the phase-field simulations as test bed, the effects of polarity, light intensity, and curing temperature, as well as the previously unexplored roles of chain transfer agents and substrates, on the morphology of the resulting porous microstructure are investigated. Experiments are performed to verify the results predicted by the simulations. This work lays out a comprehensive guide for designing PIPS-derived porous microstructures and offers practical engineering strategies for tailoring microstructure-level topology and size of pores for application-specific needs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Radiation-induced segregation in dilute Fe–Cr: A rate-theory framework for the Cr enrichment–depletion transition at the grain boundary

Radiation-induced segregation (RIS) poses a significant challenge for ferritic Fe–Cr alloys under irradiation, as it can compromise mechanical integrity and increase susceptibility to intergranular corrosion. Yet, the mechanisms governing Cr segregation remain incompletely understood. Here, in this study, we present a physics-based rate-theory model parameterized using self-consistent mean field theory-based Onsager transport coefficients to investigate RIS at the grain boundary in dilute Fe-(0.1 at. %) Cr. Under equal production rates of vacancies and self-interstitial atoms (SIA), and their equal absorption rates by bulk dislocations, the model simulates the experimentally observed transition from Cr enrichment at low temperatures to depletion at higher temperatures. Under these unbiased conditions, systematic investigation reveals that while temperature-dependent transport properties dictate the segregation direction, dose rate, grain size, and dislocation density only influence the magnitude and spatial extent of Cr segregation. However, under more realistic conditions of preferential vacancy production within damage cascade and/or preferential SIA absorption by bulk dislocations, the enrichment-to-depletion transition shifts to lower temperatures. Our findings demonstrate that RIS predictions based solely on transport coefficients are valid only under symmetric point defect flux conditions, and that biases in defect production and absorption must be considered for accurate predictions. This work provides a mechanistic framework for understanding RIS in ferritic alloys and informs alloy design for advanced nuclear systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reduced Model of Ionization Lag in Intense Laser-Produced Plasmas

A physics-based empirical formula is derived to predict the ionization lag in underdense plasmas generated by an intense laser. Time-dependent nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium calculations demonstrate significantly delayed ionization, due to rapid changes in plasma conditions, which critically impacts plasma properties such as opacity, emissivity, and heat transport. The reduced model, based on these calculations, enables the estimation of ionization lag without requiring in-depth knowledge of nonlocal thermodynamic equilibrium modeling. Furthermore, modeling reveals that the two-step ionization process—collisional excitation followed by photoionization—plays a crucial role in this ionization delay, with collisional excitation setting the timescale for ionization. Simulations across a range of elements, from beryllium to germanium, demonstrate that ionization lag is a widespread phenomenon, underscoring the importance of incorporating such processes into ionization modeling in radiation hydrodynamic simulations for various laser-plasma experiments.

direct drive↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unified differentiable digital twin for the IOTA/FAST facility

As the design complexity of modern accelerators grows, there is more interest in using advanced simulations that have fast execution time or produce insights about accelerator state. One notable example of additional information are gradients of physical observables with respect to design parameters produced by differentiable simulations. The IOTA/FAST facility has recently begun a program to implement and experimentally validate a unified start-to-end differentiable digital twin to serve as a virtual accelerator test stand, allowing for rapid prototyping of new software and experiments with minimal beam time costs. In this contribution we will discuss our plans and progress. Specifically, we will cover the selection and benchmarking of both physics and ML codes, the development of generic interfaces between device models and surrogate or physics-based sections, and the export of the parameters through either a deterministic event loop or a fully asynchronous EPICS soft input/output controller. We will also discuss challenges in model calibration and uncertainty quantification, as well as future plans to support larger proton accelerators like PIPII and Booster.

Kuklev, Nikita [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard and Risk Estimates: Insights from RAFT, CHAZ, MIT, STORM, and CLIMADA

We synthesize five complementary tropical cyclone (TC) hazard frameworks—RAFT (physics-based machine learning), CHAZ and MIT (statistical–dynamical), STORM (fully statistical), and CLIMADA (observation-driven resampling)—to characterize uncertainty in wind-related TC metrics relevant to energy applications. All datasets and the IBTrACS observational record are harmonized to a common 6-hourly, 2.5° grid. We compare basin-wide and coastal properties using consistent definitions for TC frequency, mean and maximum intensity, 24-hour intensification, and 6-hour translation speed, and quantify agreement with Pearson r, RMSE, and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) alongside resampling-based confidence intervals. CLIMADA is included for basin context but excluded from coastal skill scoring because it resamples historical IBTrACS; if supplied with projected future tracks from an external hazard model, CLIMADA can be used to simulate future TC scenarios. Results show robust, cross-model signals: (i) a corridor of activity from the tropical Atlantic through the Caribbean into the Bahamas and western subtropical Atlantic; (ii) a meridional dipole in 24-hour intensification (low-latitude strengthening, subtropical weakening); and (iii) a transition from slower tropical motion to faster midlatitude translation. Coastal winds (mean and maximum) consistently cluster from the eastern Gulf into the Bahamas–western Atlantic transition. The largest structural spread occurs in the amplitude and footprint of lifetime maximum intensity and, secondarily, in translation speed; intensification exhibits similar central behavior across frameworks with variability in extremes. Translation speed shows the most uniform coastal agreement. These findings provide a decision envelope for wind-focused risk screening and clarify where uncertainty should be carried forward; wind-only results represent a lower bound on total hazard, motivating integration of surge and rainfall modules and a companion, asset-level damage analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

HFIR LEU High Density Silicide Dispersion Optimized Design Neutronics Analyses with PHAME

A high-fidelity neutronics model of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) with the low-enriched uranium (LEU) high-density silicide dispersion Optimized fuel design was updated and analyzed to generate reactor physics-based metrics to support follow-on thermal hydraulic and transient analyses of this design. The Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME) was also updated to enhance the automation capabilities of the framework developed and maintained to perform these reactor physics modeling and simulation efforts. The automated framework significantly increases the efficiency and reproducibility to design and thoroughly analyzes HFIR LEU core designs, changes, and uncertainties. Reactor physics metrics evaluated include but are not limited to fuel depletion, cycle length, fission rate density distributions, axial power peaking factors, kinetics data, reactivity coefficients, control element worths, heat deposition rates, and decay heat. These neutronics results provide essential input to follow-on steady state thermal, thermal hydraulic and reactor transient analyses, which are subject of other reports. The Optimized design operates at 95 MW to maintain HFIR’s current highly enriched uranium core performance level at 85 MW.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing IHE Response to Multiple Shock Loading

The response of high explosives to shock loading is traditionally measured with a steady loading pressure. In many accident scenarios involving fragment impact, however, a loading duration that is shorter than the build up to detonation may occur. Fragments passing through multiple materials before reaching a high explosive charge may produce loading that is comprised of more than one shock wave. Additionally, the build up to detonation in high explosive corner turning loads the explosive a short duration pressure pulse, since rarefactions can often rapidly overtake the reactive wave. For these reasons, we have studied the response of the insensitive high explosive (IHE) materials PBX 9502 and LX-17 to complex loadings of varied intensity and duration. We refer to a single loading of limited duration as a “thin pulse”, whereas more complex scenarios were studied with an impactor that produces a double shock in the explosive. The following report presents experimental data and analyses of thin pulse shock initiation and double shock experiments designed to guide development of models of Insensitive High Explosives (IHEs) under controlled one-dimensional conditions relevant to accident scenarios and corner turning. Thin pulse shock initiation data on PBX 9502 and LX-17 were obtained under varied pulse duration, pressed density, and temperature conditions in order to probe various parameters essential for the development of a physics-based Cheetah reactive flow hotspot model. In situ pressure gauges provide insight into the degree of reaction in the explosive that are not obtainable with optical PDV measurements or distance measurements such as run to detonation. Double shock data was obtained to inform a Composition Aware Cheetah model which can be applied to any TATB-based IHEs. This model supports efforts to find a new IHE formulation and potentially incorporate new binders into IHE formulations. Simulations of each experiment are included to demonstrate the utility of these focused experiments to developing models of HE behavior. One-dimensional gas gun experiments are essential for characterizing shocked HE behavior and informing HE models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Concurrent two-way coupling of global and local models across internal boundaries with non-matching discretizations

Coupling local and global models enables efficient simulation of multiscale systems, where global models capture large-scale behavior and local models, with enhanced physics, resolve finer details over a smaller region. Here, this paper presents a mathematically consistent method for coupling physics-based models of varying fidelity across adjacent, non-overlapping subdomains, even when discretizations do not match at the immersed interdomain interfaces. Incompressible Navier-Stokes equations (NSE) constitute the global model while residual-based turbulence model serves as the local high-fidelity model. In addition, a scalar advection-diffusion equation that models the convection of an active scalar field is appended to the turbulence model in the local domain. This scalar field does not have its complement in the global model, giving rise to unequal number of equations at the immersed boundary between local and global models. Interdomain coupling terms are derived via the Variational Multiscale Discontinuous Galerkin (VMDG) method with new developments in scale representation and efficient fine-scale estimation. While transient laminar flows modeled with NSE in the global domain can be resolved with relatively coarse mesh, turbulent flow calculations in the local model require much finer spatial discretizations as well as smaller time-step for appropriately resolving the turbulent flow physics. The proposed framework also accommodates non-matching meshes at the immersed boundaries. Test problems in 2D and 3D numerically showcase the concurrent two-way coupling of unknown fields across the immersed boundaries. The 3D test presents a case with an unequal number of equations, where the scalar field represents the convection of contaminant concentration. This provides more detailed physics in the local region and highlights its application in climate modeling and atmospheric sciences.

Variational Multiscale Discontinuous Galerkin (VMD↗