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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Building a 2.5D Digital Elevation Model from 2D Imagery

When projecting imagery into a georeferenced coordinate frame, one needs to have some model of the geographical region that is being projected to. This model can sometimes be a simple geometrical curve, such as an ellipse or even a plane. However, to obtain accurate projections, one needs to have a more sophisticated model that encodes the undulations in the terrain including things like mountains, valleys, and even manmade structures. The product that is often used for this purpose is a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The technology presented here generates a high-quality DEM from a collection of 2D images taken from multiple viewpoints, plus pose data for each of the images and a camera model for the sensor. The technology assumes that the images are all of the same region of the environment. The pose data for each image is used as an initial estimate of the geometric relationship between the images, but the pose data is often noisy and not of sufficient quality to build a high-quality DEM. Therefore, the source imagery is passed through a feature-tracking algorithm and multi-plane-homography algorithm, which refine the geometric transforms between images. The images and their refined poses are then passed to a stereo algorithm, which generates dense 3D data for each image in the sequence. The 3D data from each image is then placed into a consistent coordinate frame and passed to a routine that divides the coordinate frame into a number of cells. The 3D points that fall into each cell are collected, and basic statistics are applied to determine the elevation of that cell. The result of this step is a DEM that is in an arbitrary coordinate frame. This DEM is then filtered and smoothed in order to remove small artifacts. The final step in the algorithm is to take the initial DEM and rotate and translate it to be in the world coordinate frame [such as UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator), MGRS (Military Grid Reference System), or geodetic] such that it can be saved in a standard DEM format and used for projection.

Padgett, Curtis W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Trajectory Optimization for dynamic tool Systems Swapping

Develop capability to reliably execute a handoff of the grapple tool between two robot arms in difficult environments. Goals for the end of summer include evaluating different approaches to state estimation and determine optimal handoff poses based on a given scene.

Dominic Bisio↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AstroLoc: An Efficient and Robust Localizer for a Free-flying Robot

We present AstroLoc, an efficient and robust monocular visual-inertial graph-based localization system used by the Astrobee free-flying robots onboard the International Space Station (ISS). We provide a novel localization system that limits the traditionally higher computation times for graph-based localization systems and enables the resource constrained Astrobee robots to benefit from their increased accuracy. We also introduce methods for handling cheirality issues for visual odometry and localization factors that further increase localization robustness. We evaluate the performance of AstroLoc on a dataset of ISS activities and show that it greatly improves pose, velocity, and IMU bias estimation accuracy while efficiently running in a limited computation environment. The source code for AstroLoc is released to the public.

Localization↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2008

Applications of a Forward-Looking Interferometer for the On-board Detection of Aviation Weather Hazards

The Forward-Looking Interferometer (FLI) is a new instrument concept for obtaining measurements of potential weather hazards to alert flight crews. The FLI concept is based on high-resolution Infrared (IR) Fourier Transform Spectrometry (FTS) technologies that have been developed for satellite remote sensing, and which have also been applied to the detection of aerosols and gases for other purposes. It is being evaluated for multiple hazards including clear air turbulence (CAT), volcanic ash, wake vortices, low slant range visibility, dry wind shear, and icing, during all phases of flight. Previous sensitivity and characterization studies addressed the phenomenology that supports detection and mitigation by the FLI. Techniques for determining the range, and hence warning time, were demonstrated for several of the hazards, and a table of research instrument parameters was developed for investigating all of the hazards discussed above. This work supports the feasibility of detecting multiple hazards with an FLI multi-hazard airborne sensor, and for producing enhanced IR images in reduced visibility conditions; however, further research must be performed to develop a means to estimate the intensities of the hazards posed to an aircraft and to develop robust algorithms to relate sensor measurables to hazard levels. In addition, validation tests need to be performed with a prototype system.

West, Leanne↗
NASA NTRS2016

Geocam Space: Enhancing Handheld Digital Camera Imagery from the International Space Station for Research and Applications

Handheld astronaut photography of the Earth has been collected from the International Space Station (ISS) since 2000, making it the most temporally extensive remotely sensed dataset from this unique Low Earth orbital platform. Exclusive use of digital handheld cameras to perform Earth observations from the ISS began in 2004. Nadir viewing imagery is constrained by the inclined equatorial orbit of the ISS to between 51.6 degrees North and South latitude, however numerous oblique images of land surfaces above these latitudes are included in the dataset. While unmodified commercial off-the-shelf digital cameras provide only visible wavelength, three-band spectral information of limited quality current cameras used with long (400+ mm) lenses can obtain high quality spatial information approaching 2 meters/ground pixel resolution. The dataset is freely available online at the Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth site (http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov), and now comprises over 2 million images. Despite this extensive image catalog, use of the data for scientific research, disaster response, commercial applications and visualizations is minimal in comparison to other data collected from free-flying satellite platforms such as Landsat, Worldview, etc. This is due primarily to the lack of fully-georeferenced data products - while current digital cameras typically have integrated GPS, this does not function in the Low Earth Orbit environment. The Earth Science and Remote Sensing (ESRS) Unit at NASA Johnson Space Center provides training in Earth Science topics to ISS crews, performs daily operations and Earth observation target delivery to crews through the Crew Earth Observations (CEO) Facility on board ISS, and also catalogs digital handheld imagery acquired from orbit by manually adding descriptive metadata and determining an image geographic centerpoint using visual feature matching with other georeferenced data, e.g. Landsat, Google Earth, etc. The lack of full geolocation information native to the data makes it difficult to integrate astronaut photographs with other georeferenced data to facilitate quantitative analysis such as urban land cover/land use classification, change detection, or geologic mapping. The manual determination of image centerpoints is both time and labor-intensive, leading to delays in releasing geolocated and cataloged data to the public, such as the timely use of data for disaster response. The GeoCam Space project was funded by the ISS Program in 2015 to develop an on-orbit hardware and ground-based software system for increasing the efficiency of geolocating astronaut photographs from the ISS (Fig. 1). The Intelligent Robotics Group at NASA Ames Research Center leads the development of both the ground and on-orbit systems in collaboration with the ESRS Unit. The hardware component consists of modified smartphone elements including cameras, central processing unit, wireless Ethernet, and an inertial measurement unit (gyroscopes/accelerometers/magnetometers) reconfigured into a compact unit that attaches to the base of the current Nikon D4 camera - and its replacement, the Nikon D5 - and connects using the standard Nikon peripheral connector or USB port. This provides secondary, side and downward facing cameras perpendicular to the primary camera pointing direction. The secondary cameras observe calibration targets with known internal X, Y, and Z position affixed to the interior of the ISS to determine the camera pose corresponding to each image frame. This information is recorded by the GeoCam Space unit and indexed for correlation to the camera time recorded for each image frame. Data - image, EXIF header, and camera pose information - is transmitted to the ground software system (GeoRef) using the established Ku-band USOS downlink system. Following integration on the ground, the camera pose information provides an initial geolocation estimate for the individual film frame. This new capability represents a significant advance in geolocation from the manual feature-matching approach for both nadir and off-nadir viewing imagery. With the initial geolocation estimate, full georeferencing of an image is completed using the rapid tie-pointing interface in GeoRef, and the resulting data is added to the Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth online database in both Geotiff and Keyhole Markup Language (kml) formats. The integration of the GeoRef software component of Geocam Space into the CEO image cataloging workflow is complete, and disaster response imagery acquired by the ISS crew is now fully georeferenced as a standard data product. The on-orbit hardware component (GeoSens) is in final prototyping phase, and is on-schedule for launch to the ISS in late 2016. Installation and routine use of the Geocam Space system for handheld digital camera photography from the ISS is expected to significantly improve the usefulness of this unique dataset for a variety of public- and private-sector applications.

Stefanov, William L.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of a Combined Drought Indicator Against Crop Yield Estimations and Simulations Over the Argentine Humid Pampas

Droughts pose serious threats to the agricultural sector, especially in rainfed-dominated agricultural regions like those in Argentina’s Humid Pampas. This region was recently impacted by slow-evolving and long-lasting droughts as well as by flash droughts, resulting in losses reaching thousands of millions of US dollars. Improvements of drought early warning systems are essential, particularly given the projected increase in drought frequency and severity over southern South America. The spatial and temporal relationship between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and vegetation health anomalies are crucial for better understanding and representation of the agricultural droughts and their impacts. In this context, the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) considers the causal and time-lagged relationship of these three variables. The study’s objective is twofold: (1) Analyze the time-lagged response between precipitation deficits, soil moisture and satellite fAPAR anomalies; and (2) Evaluate the CDI’s capability to characterize the severity of drought events on the Humid Pampas against agricultural yield estimations and simulations, as well as agricultural emergency declarations. The correlation among the variables shows strong spatial variability. The highest Pearson correlation values (r > 0.42) are observed over parts of the Humid Pampas for time lags of 0, 10, and 20 days between the variables. Although the CDI has limitations, such as its coarse spatial resolution and monthly temporal resolution of precipitation data, it effectively tracks the progression of major drought events in the region. The CDI’s performance aligns well with estimations and simulations of soybean and corn yields, as well as official declarations of agricultural emergencies. Insights from this study also provide a basis for discussing potential improvements to the CDI. This study highlights the global and regional significance of evaluating and enhancing the CDI for effective drought monitoring, emphasizing the role of collaborative efforts for future advancements in drought early warning systems.

Combined Drought Indicator↗
NASA NTRS2011

Visual SLAM Using Variance Grid Maps

An algorithm denoted Gamma-SLAM performs further processing, in real time, of preprocessed digitized images acquired by a stereoscopic pair of electronic cameras aboard an off-road robotic ground vehicle to build accurate maps of the terrain and determine the location of the vehicle with respect to the maps. Part of the name of the algorithm reflects the fact that the process of building the maps and determining the location with respect to them is denoted simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM). Most prior real-time SLAM algorithms have been limited in applicability to (1) systems equipped with scanning laser range finders as the primary sensors in (2) indoor environments (or relatively simply structured outdoor environments). The few prior vision-based SLAM algorithms have been feature-based and not suitable for real-time applications and, hence, not suitable for autonomous navigation on irregularly structured terrain. The Gamma-SLAM algorithm incorporates two key innovations: Visual odometry (in contradistinction to wheel odometry) is used to estimate the motion of the vehicle. An elevation variance map (in contradistinction to an occupancy or an elevation map) is used to represent the terrain. The Gamma-SLAM algorithm makes use of a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter (RBPF) from Bayesian estimation theory for maintaining a distribution over poses and maps. The core idea of the RBPF approach is that the SLAM problem can be factored into two parts: (1) finding the distribution over robot trajectories, and (2) finding the map conditioned on any given trajectory. The factorization involves the use of a particle filter in which each particle encodes both a possible trajectory and a map conditioned on that trajectory. The base estimate of the trajectory is derived from visual odometry, and the map conditioned on that trajectory is a Cartesian grid of elevation variances. In comparison with traditional occupancy or elevation grid maps, the grid elevation variance maps are much better for representing the structure of vegetated or rocky terrain.

Howard, Andrew B.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Estimation of distributed parameter systems

The estimation and control of large flexible space structures pose significant new control technology problems. One major problem area is the closed-loop stability of a structure that has been modeled with truncated modal dynamics. Stability problems arise due to the control design process beginning with a deficient model. This work provides the necessary conditions for the optimal estimation of infinite dimensional (partial-differential equation) systems. This approach can be particularly useful for initial control studies and for gaining considerable insight into what the optimal estimator for a truly infinite dimensional system should be. A detailed example of the estimation of the continuous shape of a string in tension is presented.

Schaechter, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A criterion for joint optimization of identification and robust control

A criterion for system identification is developed that is consistent with the intended used of the fitted model for modern robust control synthesis. Specifically, a joint optimization problem is posed which simultaneously solves the plant model estimate and control design, so as to optimize robust performance over the set of plants consistent with a specified experimental data set.

Bayard, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol-Induced Changes of Convective Cloud Anvils Produce Strong Climate Warming

The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm(exp-2) . Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing. We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvi1 clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming) at top-of-atmosphere. Furthermore we introduce the cloud optical depth (r), cloud height (Z) forcing space and show that underestimation of radiative forcing is likely to occur in cases of non homogenous clouds. Specifically, the mean radiative forcing of towers and anvils in the same scene can be several times greater than simply calculating the forcing from the mean cloud optical depth in the scene. Limitations of the method are discussed, alternative sources of aerosol loading are tested and meteorological variance is restricted, but the trend of taller clouds; increased and thinner anvils associated with increased aerosol loading remains robust through all the different tests and perturbations.

Koren, I.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Wake-Vortex Hazards During Cruise

Even though the hazard posed by lift-generated wakes of subsonic transport aircraft has been studied extensively for approach and departure at airports, only a small amount of effort has gone into the potential hazard at cruise altitude. This paper reports on a studio of the wake-vortex hazard during cruise because encounters may become more prevalent when free-flight becomes available and each aircraft, is free to choose its own route between destinations. In order to address the problem, the various fluid-dynamic stages that vortex wakes usually go through as they age will be described along with estimates of the potential hazard that each stage poses. It appears that a rolling-moment hazard can be just as severe at cruise as for approach at airports, but it only persists for several minutes. However, the hazard posed by the downwash in the wake due to the lift on the generator aircraft persists for tens of minutes in a long narrow region behind the generating aircraft. The hazard consists of severe vertical loads when an encountering aircraft crosses the wake. A technique for avoiding vortex wakes at cruise altitude will be described. To date the hazard posed by lift-generated vortex wakes and their persistence at cruise altitudes has been identified and subdivided into several tasks. Analyses of the loads to be encounter and are underway and should be completed shortly. A review of published literature on the subject has been nearly completed (see text) and photographs of vortex wakes at cruise altitudes have been taken and the various stages of decay have been identified. It remains to study and sort the photographs for those that best illustrate the various stages of decay after they are shed by subsonic transport aircraft at cruise altitudes. The present status of the analysis and the paper are described.

Rossow, Vernon J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Multi-Cone Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays

The multi-cone model is a computational model for estimating ionospheric delays of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. It is a direct descendant of the conical-domain model. A primary motivation for the development of this model is the need to find alternatives for modeling slant delays at low latitudes, where ionospheric behavior poses an acute challenge for GPS signal-delay estimates based upon the thin-shell model of the ionosphere.

Sparks, Lawrence↗
NASA NTRS1976

A comparison of spacecraft penetration hazards due to meteoroids and manmade earth-orbiting objects

The ability of a typical double-walled spacecraft structure to protect against penetration by high-velocity incident objects is reviewed. The hazards presented by meteoroids are compared to the current and potential hazards due to manmade orbiting objects. It is shown that the nature of the meteoroid number-mass relationship makes adequate protection for large space facilities a conceptually straightforward structural problem. The present level of manmade orbiting objects (an estimated 10,000 in early 1975) does not pose an unacceptable risk to manned space operations proposed for the near future, but it does produce penetration probabilities in the range of 1-10 percent for a 100-m diameter sphere in orbit for 1,000 days. The number-size distribution of manmade objects is such that adequate protection is difficult to achieve for large permanent space facilities, to the extent that future restrictions on such facilities may result if the growth of orbiting objects continues at its historical rate.

Brooks, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Estimation of Cometary Rotation Parameters Based on Camera Images

The purpose of the Rosetta mission is the in situ analysis of a cometary nucleus using both remote sensing equipment and scientific instruments delivered to the comet surface by a lander and transmitting measurement data to the comet-orbiting probe. Following a tour of planets including one Mars swing-by and three Earth swing-bys, the Rosetta probe is scheduled to rendezvous with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in May 2014. The mission poses various flight dynamics challenges, both in terms of parameter estimation and maneuver planning. Along with spacecraft parameters, the comet's position, velocity, attitude, angular velocity, inertia tensor and gravitatonal field need to be estimated. The measurements on which the estimation process is based are ground-based measurements (range and Doppler) yielding information on the heliocentric spacecraft state and images taken by an on-board camera yielding informaton on the comet state relative to the spacecraft. The image-based navigation depends on te identification of cometary landmarks (whose body coordinates also need to be estimated in the process). The paper will describe the estimation process involved, focusing on the phase when, after orbit insertion, the task arises to estimate the cometary rotational motion from camera images on which individual landmarks begin to become identifiable.

Spindler, Karlheinz↗
NASA NTRS2006

Effects of gamma-Radiation on Select Lipids and Antioxidants

Radiation encountered on an extended duration space mission (estimates of 3 Sieverts for a mission to Mars) poses a threat not only to human health, but also to the quality, nutritional value, and palatability of the food system. Free radicals generated by radiation interaction with foods may initiate many unwanted reactions including: 1) autoxidation in lipids that alters flavor, odor, and concentrations of essential fatty acids, and 2) depletion of antioxidants food products and dietary supplements. Studies have shown that antioxidants may provide long term health protection from oxidative stress caused by radiation exposure; therefore, consumption of antioxidants will be important. Stability of essential fatty acids is also important for astronauts long-term health status. The objectives of this study were to characterize the effects of low dose gamma-radiation on lipids and antioxidants by monitoring oxidation and reducing power, respectively, in model systems. Select oils and antioxidants were exposed to levels of gamma-radiation ranging from 0 to 1000 Gy (1 Gy = 1 Sv) using a Gammacell 220 and stored at ambient or elevated temperatures (65 C) for up to 3 months prior to analysis. A Fricke dosimeter was used to verify differences between the radiation doses administered. Primary and secondary products of lipid oxidation in soybean and peanut oils were monitored using conjugated diene and 2-thiobarbituric acid (TBARs) assays. Changes in fatty acid composition and formation and vitamin E levels were also measured. The reducing power of antioxidant compounds, including vitamins C and E and beta-carotene, was determined using the ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP) assay. Significant differences (alpha =0.05) were present between all radiation doses tested using the Fricke dosimeter. Increasing radiation doses above 3 Sv resulted in significantly (alpha =0.05) elevated levels of oxidation and free fatty acids in soybean and peanut oils. Decreases in concentrations of essential fatty acids upon increasing radiation doses were also observed. Increasing radiation doses caused significant (alpha =0.05) decreases in reducing power and hence the effectiveness of vitamins C and E as well as beta-carotene. This work establishes a need for quantifying the effects of space relevant radiation doses in the development of a food system for an extended duration mission and for identifying threshold radiation levels that will impact the useful shelf-life of the variety of foods that will be sent. Eventual rancidity of lipids and the loss of antioxidant bioprotective effects are major concerns for the acceptability and nutritional profile of a food system.

Gandolph, Jacob↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. This suite included a network of MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs). Each MISP was comprised of a cylinder made of Thermal Protection System (TPS) material with 1-3 embedded thermocouples (TCs), and it was flush mounted into the heatshield or backshell. Data from these in-depth TCs were used to reconstruct the aeroheating environment of the vehicle throughout entry. Surface heating was posed as an inverse problem, with the goal of estimating the surface heating by minimizing an objective function of the difference between MISP temperature measurements during flight and the temperature predictions derived from the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) program. Given an aerothermal environment, FIAT calculates the material response and provides in-depth temperatures throughout the TPS material. To achieve the reverse, an internal tool called FIAT_Opt runs through multiple different environments until the output temperature at the TC depth closely matches the flight data. 95% confidence intervals on the reconstructed surface heating were obtained using Monte Carlo analysis, in which uncertainties in the thermocouple depth and the TPS material properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, emissivity) based on flight-lot material testing were included. A variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructed peak heating to the TC placement and material property uncertainties. Variance decomposition was found to require tens of thousands of FIAT_Opt runs in order for the Sobol indices to converge. With a single FIAT_Opt run taking on the order of 40 minutes, the required number of computations would take months to complete, even if using multiple CPUs. To mitigate this problem, three machine learning models (ridge regression with cross-validation, random forest regression, and a deep neural network) were trained and tested using the 2000 Monte Carlo runs that were already completed. A subset of 1600 runs were used to train the model (i.e., training set), while the remaining 400 runs were used as the test set. The predictions from the deep neural network (DNN) on the test set showed nearly perfect agreement to the actual values computed with FIAT_Opt (R2 > 0.99). Using the DNN as a surrogate model, the variance decomposition using 50,000 runs was completed within minutes. The resulting Sobol indices showed that the reconstructed peak surface heating was most sensitive to the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity (ST = 0.37) and heat capacity (ST = 0.26). This method can be leveraged to provide requirements for material property measurements needed to improve the accuracy of surface heating prediction and ultimately lead to the reduction of design margins in the future. This presentation will include background on the MEDLI2 suite; the method used for inverse heating estimation; the way that material property uncertainties were accounted for using Monte Carlo analysis; a brief background on variance decomposition; the motivation for using machine learning in this context; how a neural network was trained on the data to enable variance decomposition in a fraction of the time; and the variance decomposition results for one of the MISPs.

Hannah Alpert↗
NASA NTRS2016

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems

Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data, researchers can develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts resulting from flood disaster events.

Ahamed, Aakash↗