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At least 109 records · Page 6

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DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of a Subject-specific Ankle Sprain Simulation to Extrinsic Versus Intrinsic Biomechanical Factors

Ankle sprains are the most common musculoskeletal injury in sport and military activity, despite existing prophylactic strategies. The purpose of this report was to develop a probabilistic simulation of lateral ankle sprains during single-limb drop landing, towards accelerating innovation in ankle sprain prevention. A deterministic, subject-specific musculoskeletal model was extended with automation and probabilistic distributions on sprain-related biomechanical factors. Probabilistic simulations were generated using traditional Monte Carlo techniques and the advanced mean value method, a more computationally-efficient approach. Predicted distributions of peak ankle joint rotations, velocities, and moments borne by supporting passive structures agreed favorably with the deterministic model and with reports of real sprain biomechanics. Parameter sensitivities identified that predictions were most strongly influenced by drop height, subtalar joint posture at contact, invertor/evertor co-activation, and passive ankle stiffness. The advanced mean value method predicted confidence bounds comparable to a 1000-trial Monte Carlo simulation, and required only 14 model evaluations and 4-min processing time. The extended probabilistic simulation may be useful to virtually test new prophylactic strategies for ankle sprains, and is made available for open-source use (https://simtk.org/projects/sprain-sim).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Can the Nanoflare Model Reproduce Observed Emissions?

All theories that attempt to explain the high temperatures observed in the solar corona are based on short bursts of energy release. The intensities and velocities measured in the core of an active, however, can be steady over many hours of observation. One heating scenario that has been proposed to reconcile such observations with models is the "long nanoflare storm," where short duration heating events occur infrequently on many sub-resolutions strands. In this Letter, we examine the emission measure distribution predicted for such a heating scenario by modeling an arcade of strands in an active region core. Comparisons of the computed emission measure distributions with recent observations indicate that that the long nanoflare storm scenario implies much more 1 MK emission than is actually observed for all plausible combinations of loop lengths, heating rates, and abundances. We conjecture that if the plasma had super coronal abundances, the model may be able to match the observations at low temperatures.

Mulu-Moore, Fana M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Studies of charm quark diffusion inside jets using PbPb and pp collisions at $\sqrt{s_\mathrm{NN}} =$ 5.02 TeV

The first study of charm quark diffusion with respect to the jet axis in heavy ion collisions is presented. The measurement is performed using jets with $p^{jet}_T > 60 GeV / c$ and $D^0$ mesons with $p^D_T > 4 GeV / c$ in lead-lead (Pb-Pb) and proton-proton ($pp$) collisions at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s_{NN}} = 5.02 TeV$, recorded by the CMS detector at the LHC. The radial distribution of $D^0$ mesons with respect to the jet axis is sensitive to the production mechanisms of the meson, as well as to the energy loss and diffusion processes undergone by its parent parton inside the strongly interacting medium produced in Pb-Pb collisions. When compared to Monte Carlo event generators, the radial distribution in $pp$ collisions is found to be well described by pythia, while the slope of the distribution predicted by sherpa is steeper than that of the data. In Pb-Pb collisions, compared to the $pp$ results, the $D^0$ meson distribution for $4 < p^D_T < 20 GeV / c$ hints at a larger distance on average with respect to the jet axis, reflecting a diffusion of charm quarks in the medium created in heavy ion collisions. At higher $p^D_T$, the Pb-Pb and $pp$ radial distributions are found to be similar.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Mapping of CO2 at High Spatiotemporal Resolution using Satellite Observations: Global distributions from OCO-2

Satellite observations of CO2 offer new opportunities to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Using such observations to infer global maps of atmospheric CO2 and their associated uncertainties can provide key information about the distribution and dynamic behavior of CO2, through comparison to atmospheric CO2 distributions predicted from biospheric, oceanic, or fossil fuel flux emissions estimates coupled with atmospheric transport models. Ideally, these maps should be at temporal resolutions that are short enough to represent and capture the synoptic dynamics of atmospheric CO2. This study presents a geostatistical method that accomplishes this goal. The method can extract information about the spatial covariance structure of the CO2 field from the available CO2 retrievals, yields full coverage (Level 3) maps at high spatial resolutions, and provides estimates of the uncertainties associated with these maps. The method does not require information about CO2 fluxes or atmospheric transport, such that the Level 3 maps are informed entirely by available retrievals. The approach is assessed by investigating its performance using synthetic OCO-2 data generated from the PCTM/ GEOS-4/CASA-GFED model, for time periods ranging from 1 to 16 days and a target spatial resolution of 1deg latitude x 1.25deg longitude. Results show that global CO2 fields from OCO-2 observations can be predicted well at surprisingly high temporal resolutions. Even one-day Level 3 maps reproduce the large-scale features of the atmospheric CO2 distribution, and yield realistic uncertainty bounds. Temporal resolutions of two to four days result in the best performance for a wide range of investigated scenarios, providing maps at an order of magnitude higher temporal resolution relative to the monthly or seasonal Level 3 maps typically reported in the literature.

Hammerling, Dorit M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Profiles of Micrometeorological Variables in a Tropical Premontane Rainforest Using Multi-Layered CLM (CLM-ML)

This study updates the multi-layered Community Land Model (CLM-ml) for hillslopes and compares predictions from against observations collected in tropical montane rainforest, Costa Rica. Modifications are made in order to capture a wider array of vertical leaf area distributions, predict CO 2 profiles, account for soil respiration, and adjust wind forcings for difficult topographic settings. Test results indicate that the modified multi-layer CLM model can successfully replicate the shape of various micrometeorological profiles (humidity, CO 2 , temperature, and wind speed) under the canopy. In the single-layer models (CLM4.5 and CLM5), excessive day-to-night differences in leaf temperature and leaf wetness were originally noted, but CLM-ml significantly improved these issues, decreasing the amplitudes of diurnal cycles by 67% and 47%. Sub-canopy considerations, such as canopy shapes and turbulent transfer parameters, also played a significant role in model performance. More importantly, unlike single layer models, the results that CLM-ml produces can be compared to variables measured within the canopy to provide far more detailed diagnostic information. Further observations and model developments, aimed at reflecting surface heterogeneity, will be necessary to adequately capture the complexity and the features of the tropical montane rainforest.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1986

Dilution jet mixing program, supplementary report

The velocity and temperature distributions predicted by a 3-D numerical model and experimental measurements are compared. Empirical correlations for the jet velocity trajectory developed are presented. The measured velocity distributions for all test cases of phase through phase 3 are presented in the form of contour and oblique plots. quantification of the effects of the following on the jet mixing characteristics with a confined crossflow are: (1) orifice geometry momentum flux ratio and density ratio; (2) nonuniform mainstream temperature and velocity profiles upstream of dilution orifices; (3) cold versus hot jet injection; (4) cross-stream flow are a convergence as encountered in practical dilution zone geometries; (5) 2-D slot versus circular orifices; (6) discrete noncirculcer orifices; (7) single-sided versus opposed jets; (8) single row of jets.

Srinivasan, R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Multi-Scale Computational Modeling of Two-Phased Metal Using GMC Method

A multi-scale computational model for determining plastic behavior in two-phased CMSX-4 Ni-based superalloys is developed on a finite element analysis (FEA) framework employing crystal plasticity constitutive model that can capture the microstructural scale stress field. The generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics model is used for homogenizing the local field quantities. At first, GMC as stand-alone is validated by analyzing a repeating unit cell (RUC) as a two-phased sample with 72.9% volume fraction of gamma'-precipitate in the gamma-matrix phase and comparing the results with those predicted by finite element analysis (FEA) models incorporating the same crystal plasticity constitutive model. The global stress-strain behavior and the local field quantity distributions predicted by GMC demonstrated good agreement with FEA. High computational saving, at the expense of some accuracy in the components of local tensor field quantities, was obtained with GMC. Finally, the capability of the developed multi-scale model linking FEA and GMC to solve real life sized structures is demonstrated by analyzing an engine disc component and determining the microstructural scale details of the field quantities.

nickel alloys↗

NASA NTRS1978

Evidence that cosmic gamma-ray bursts are galactic

Balloon observations registering scatter angles in a liquid scintillator have revealed gamma-ray bursts having energies as low as 10 to the -7th ergs per square cm. The burst distribution is graphed according to energy and frequency. The hypothesis that the bursts are galactic in origin is in good agreement with their small recorded energies and their predicted distribution on the graph.

White, R. S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Insights into the year-round vertical distribution of chlorophyll concentration in high-latitude Arctic Ocean: implications for primary production

Climate-induced rapid changes in the Arctic Ocean, such as decreasing sea ice extent and increasing water temperature, are altering nutrient and light availability, profoundly impacting primary producer growth. However, access to the high-latitude Arctic Ocean is limited, and satellite data are primarily available only during summer, making continuous in-situ data collection challenging. We collected year-round chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration data in high-latitude regions using a mooring system and performed a comparative analysis with reanalysis data. Unlike previous satellite-based studies, which typically rely on surface measurements, we used the annual vertical distribution of Chl-a. These data were applied to the vertically generalized production model to accurately estimate annual primary production. The moored Chl-a concentration data showed that phytoplankton exhibited a typical subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) layer as sea ice retreated in June. Contrary to the gradually deepening SCM distribution predicted by model-based reanalysis data, the SCM layer persisted for approximately 4 months. This indicates that light and nutrient conditions within the SCM layer remained stable, sustaining continuous phytoplankton growth. Annual primary production, reflecting this vertical distribution of Chl-a concentration, was 6.85 gC m −2 yr −1 . This exceeded satellite-based estimates by at least two-fold, highlighting the significant underestimation of primary production by satellite approaches. Estimating primary production while accounting for the vertical distribution of phytoplankton and light is essential for improving ecological models to better understand carbon cycle and food web changes in the Arctic Ocean, with important implications for climate change predictions.

Arctic Ocean↗

DOE OSTI2015

High-resolution mass models of dwarf galaxies from LITTLE THINGS

We present high-resolution rotation curves and mass models of 26 dwarf galaxies from “Local Irregulars That Trace Luminosity Extremes, The H i Nearby Galaxy Survey” (LITTLE THINGS). LITTLE THINGS is a high-resolution (∼6″ angular; <2.6 km s{sup −1} velocity resolution) Very Large Array H i survey for nearby dwarf galaxies in the local volume within 11 Mpc. The high-resolution H i observations enable us to derive reliable rotation curves of the sample galaxies in a homogeneous and consistent manner. The rotation curves are then combined with Spitzer archival 3.6 μm and ancillary optical U, B, and V images to construct mass models of the galaxies. This high quality multi-wavelength data set significantly reduces observational uncertainties and thus allows us to examine the mass distribution in the galaxies in detail. We decompose the rotation curves in terms of the dynamical contributions by baryons and dark matter (DM) halos, and compare the latter with those of dwarf galaxies from THINGS as well as ΛCDM Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) simulations in which the effect of baryonic feedback processes is included. Being generally consistent with THINGS and simulated dwarf galaxies, most of the LITTLE THINGS sample galaxies show a linear increase of the rotation curve in their inner regions, which gives shallower logarithmic inner slopes α of their DM density profiles. The mean value of the slopes of the 26 LITTLE THINGS dwarf galaxies is α=−0.32±0.24 which is in accordance with the previous results found for low surface brightness galaxies (α=−0.2±0.2) as well as the seven THINGS dwarf galaxies (α=−0.29±0.07). However, this significantly deviates from the cusp-like DM distribution predicted by DM-only ΛCDM simulations. Instead our results are more in line with the shallower slopes found in the ΛCDM SPH simulations of dwarf galaxies in which the effect of baryonic feedback processes is included. In addition, we discuss the central DM distribution of DDO 210 whose stellar mass is relatively low in our sample to examine the scenario of inefficient supernova feedback in low mass dwarf galaxies predicted from recent ΛCDM SPH simulations of dwarf galaxies where central cusps still remain.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Assessing the pollution risk of a groundwater source field at western Laizhou Bay under seawater intrusion

Coastal areas have great significance for human living, economy and society development in the world. With the rapid increase of pressures from human activities and climate change, the safety of groundwater resource is under the threat of seawater intrusion in coastal areas. The area of Laizhou Bay is one of the most serious seawater intruded areas in China, since seawater intrusion phenomenon was firstly recognized in the middle of 1970s. This study assessed the pollution risk of a groundwater source filed of western Laizhou Bay area by inferring the probability distribution of groundwater Cl{sup −} concentration. The numerical model of seawater intrusion process is built by using SEAWAT4. The parameter uncertainty of this model is evaluated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, and DREAM{sub (ZS)} is used as sampling algorithm. Then, the predictive distribution of Cl{sup -} concentration at groundwater source field is inferred by using the samples of model parameters obtained from MCMC. After that, the pollution risk of groundwater source filed is assessed by the predictive quantiles of Cl{sup -} concentration. The results of model calibration and verification demonstrate that the DREAM{sub (ZS)} based MCMC is efficient and reliable to estimate model parameters under current observation. Under the condition of 95% confidence level, the groundwater source point will not be polluted by seawater intrusion in future five years (2015–2019). In addition, the 2.5% and 97.5% predictive quantiles show that the Cl{sup −} concentration of groundwater source field always vary between 175 mg/l and 200 mg/l. - Highlights: • The parameter uncertainty of seawater intrusion model is evaluated by MCMC. • Groundwater source field won’t be polluted by seawater intrusion in future 5 years. • The pollution risk is assessed by the predictive quantiles of Cl{sup −} concentration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

The composition of cosmic rays near the Bend (10 to the 15th power eV) from a study of muons in air showers at sea level

The distribution of muons near shower cores was studied at sea level at Fermilab using the E594 neutrino detector to sample the muon with E testing 3 GeV. These data are compared with detailed Monte Carlo simulations to derive conclusions about the composition of cosmic rays near the bend in the all particle spectrum. Monte Carlo simulations generating extensive air showers (EAS) with primary energy in excess of 50 TeV are described. Each shower record contains details of the electron lateral distribution and the muon and hadron lateral distributions as a function of energy, at the observation level of 100g/cm. The number of detected electrons and muons in each case was determined by a Poisson fluctuation of the number incident. The resultant predicted distribution of muons, electrons, the rate events are compared to those observed. Preliminary results on the rate favor a heavy primary dominated cosmic ray spectrum in energy range 50 to 1000 TeV.

Goodman, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Effects of habitat map generalization in biodiversity assessment

Species richness is being mapped as part of an inventory of biological diversity in California (i.e., gap analysis). Species distributions are modeled with a GIS on the basis of maps of each species' preferred habitats. Species richness is then tallied in equal-area sampling units. A GIS sensitivity analysis examined the effects of the level of generalization of the habitat map on the predicted distribution of species richness in the southern Sierra Nevada. As the habitat map was generalized, the number of habitat types mapped within grid cells tended to decrease with a corresponding decline in numbers of species predicted. Further, the ranking of grid cells in order of predicted numbers of species changed dramatically between levels of generalization. Areas predicted to be of greatest conservation value on the basis of species richness may therefore be sensitive to GIS data resolution.

Stoms, David M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Physics-Informed Graph Convolutional Network for Active Distribution System Voltage Prediction

Here this letter proposes a novel data-driven probabilistic physics-informed graph convolutional network (GCN) for active distribution system voltage prediction with PVs and EVs. It leverages both measurements and network topology to accurately and efficiently predict node voltages without the need for an accurate distribution system power flow model. The dropout-enabled Bayesian inference is developed to achieve uncertainty quantification of the voltage prediction. Thanks to the network model embedding, it also has robustness against topology changes, a key difference with existing machine learning-based approaches. Comparison results with other state-of-the-art machine learning methods on a realistic 759-node distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve better accuracy and robustness under different scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Stratospheric Warming of 2018 in Context of the Earth System

The major stratospheric sudden warming in February 2018 occurred in unison with changes throughout the troposphere in the northern hemisphere. Changes in large-scale dynamics and regional weather patterns are described in this study, along with features in major features of the Earth system, such as sea ice. The focus is on analyses using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) analyses, weather prediction, and seasonal forecasts. Specific topics to discuss include: - The morphology of the sudden warming, including planetary waves in the troposphere and stratosphere.- Relationships with weather over North America. - Warming over the Arctic and anomalous sea-ice distributions. - Predictability on the one-to-four week timescales. The predictions will be based on routine products generated using the GEOS systems, as well as targeted experiments that focus on the roles of different mechanisms (such as ice-atmosphere interactions).

planetary waves↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble models for circuit topology estimation, fault detection and classification in distribution systems

This paper presents a methodology for simultaneous fault detection, classification, and topology estimation for adaptive protection of distribution systems. The methodology estimates the probability of the occurrence of each one of these events by using a hybrid structure that combines three sub-systems, a convolutional neural network for topology estimation, a fault detection based on predictive residual analysis, and a standard support vector machine with probabilistic output for fault classification. The input to all these sub-systems is the local voltage and current measurements. A convolutional neural network uses these local measurements in the form of sequential data to extract features and estimate the topology conditions. The fault detector is constructed with a Bayesian stage (a multitask Gaussian process) that computes a predictive distribution (assumed to be Gaussian) of the residuals using the input. Since the distribution is known, these residuals can be transformed into a Standard distribution, whose values are then introduced into a one-class support vector machine. The structure allows using a one-class support vector machine without parameter cross-validation, so the fault detector is fully unsupervised. Finally, a support vector machine uses the input to perform the classification of the fault types. All three sub-systems can work in a parallel setup for both performance and computation efficiency. In conclusion, we test all three sub-systems included in the structure on a modified IEEE123 bus system, and we compare and evaluate the results with standard approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1991

Monte Carlo simulation of errors in the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility - A second-rank symmetric tensor

Monte Carlo perturbations of synthetic tensors to evaluate the Hext/Jelinek elliptical confidence regions for anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) eigenvectors are used. When the perturbations are 33 percent of the minimum anisotropy, both the shapes and probability densities of the resulting eigenvector distributions agree with the elliptical distributions predicted by the Hext/Jelinek equations. When the perturbation size is increased to 100 percent of the minimum eigenvalue difference, the major axis of the 95 percent confidence ellipse underestimates the observed eigenvector dispersion by about 10 deg. The observed distributions of the principal susceptibilities (eigenvalues) are close to being normal, with standard errors that agree well with the calculated Hext/Jelinek errors. The Hext/Jelinek ellipses are also able to describe the AMS dispersions due to instrumental noise and provide reasonable limits for the AMS dispersions observed in two Hawaiian basaltic dikes. It is concluded that the Hext/Jelinek method provides a satisfactory description of the errors in AMS data and should be a standard part of any AMS data analysis.

Lienert, Barry R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Measured and predicted aerodynamic heating on a cylinder in wake of AFE configuration at incidence

Thin-film resistance gages were used to measure cylinder surface heat-transfer rates in the near wake of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment vehicle configuration, while surface-streamline directions were ascertained by the oil-flow techniques under the same configuration and test conditions. Both heat transfer distributions and flow over the entire cylinder surface were influenced by impingement of that portion of the free shear layer originating at the forebody shoulder in the upper symmetry plane. Heating rate distributions predicted with a Navier-Stokes solver computer code were in general agreement with measurements.

Wells, William L.↗