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At least 109 records · Page 6

Machine Learning Predictions of Transition Probabilities in Atomic Spectra

Forward modeling of optical spectra with absolute radiometric intensities requires knowledge of the individual transition probabilities for every transition in the spectrum. In many cases, these transition probabilities, or Einstein A-coefficients, quickly become practically impossible to obtain through either theoretical or experimental methods. Complicated electronic orbitals with higher order effects will reduce the accuracy of theoretical models. Experimental measurements can be prohibitively expensive and are rarely comprehensive due to physical constraints and sheer volume of required measurements. Due to these limitations, spectral predictions for many element transitions are not attainable. In this work, we investigate the efficacy of using machine learning models, specifically fully connected neural networks (FCNN), to predict Einstein A-coefficients using data from the NIST Atomic Spectra Database. For simple elements where closed form quantum calculations are possible, the data-driven modeling workflow performs well but can still have lower precision than theoretical calculations. For more complicated nuclei, deep learning emerged more comparable to theoretical predictions, such as Hartree–Fock. Unlike experiment or theory, the deep learning approach scales favorably with the number of transitions in a spectrum, especially if the transition probabilities are distributed across a wide range of values. It is also capable of being trained on both theoretical and experimental values simultaneously. In addition, the model performance improves when training on multiple elements prior to testing. The scalability of the machine learning approach makes it a potentially promising technique for estimating transition probabilities in previously inaccessible regions of the spectral and thermal domains on a significantly reduced timeline.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Kepler Planet Reliability Metrics: Astrophysical Positional Probabilities for Data Release 25

This document is very similar to KSCI-19092-003, Planet Reliability Metrics: Astrophysical Positional Probabilities, which describes the previous release of the astrophysical positional probabilities for Data Release 24. The important changes for Data Release 25 are:1. The computation of the astrophysical positional probabilities uses the Data Release 25 processed pixel data for all Kepler Objects of Interest.2. Computed probabilities now have associated uncertainties, whose computation is described in x4.1.3.3. The scene modeling described in x4.1.2 uses background stars detected via ground-based high-resolution imaging, described in x5.1, that are not in the Kepler Input Catalog or UKIRT catalog. These newly detected stars are presented in Appendix B. Otherwise the text describing the algorithms and examples is largely unchanged from KSCI-19092-003.

APP↗

Initial Integration of a Conflict Probabilities Service for Upper Class E Traffic Management

This paper outlines the development and integration of a conflict probability calculation-based service designed for Upper Class E Airspace operations. A key aspect of this effort is the integration of the conflict probability calculation algorithm into a simulated situational awareness client application. This application serves as a tool for flight operators to submit operations for Upper Class E Airspace within a simulated environment. The focus is on validating the effectiveness of the service through simulated intentional conflicting scenarios. The paper delves into the practicalities of integrating the conflict probability service into the user interface of the simulated situational awareness client application. This integration aims to enhance the decision-making capabilities of ETM operators within the simulated environment. The experiments and observations conducted in this simulated facility provide insights into the operational effectiveness of the proposed approach. In conclusion, this paper emphasizes the development, integration, and simulation-based validation of a conflict probability calculation service for Upper Class E Airspace. The findings underscore the potential impact of our approach on decision-making within a simulated setting, contributing to the understanding of its practical applications in operational scenarios.

Upper Class E Traffic Management↗

Neutron Number Probability Distributions in a Subcritical System Using the Forward Master Equation

The subject of this paper is the determination of the equilibrium probability distribution function (PDF) of the neutron population within a subcritical multiplying system in the presence of an intrinsic random source as a result of spontaneous fission (SF). Such systems are strongly stochastic and low order moments such as the mean and variance of the neutron number are not sufficient to characterize the true state of the neutron population. We base our work on the forward Master equation in a lumped model formulation for P{sub n} (t), n = 0, 1, 2,..., the probability of there existing η neutrons at time t and obtain solutions for the steady state distributions. The key parameters in this model, neutron lifetime and fission probability, are rigorously obtained by numerically solving the k-eigenvalue problem in a one-dimensional spherical system and using standard definitions of lumped parameters in terms of production and loss rates in finite systems. Previous work has examined single-chain PDFs (a single fission and the resulting progeny) for neutrons, uncoupled neutron-photon single-chain PDFs, both using a lumped backward Master equation formulation, as well as neutron PDFs in supercritical systems. In this paper, we analyze strictly subcritical systems, for which we compare analytically derived solutions with numerical computations for different multiplicity distribution models. For subcritical systems where the neutron population remains finite at steady state, we show that the forward Master equation can be very efficiently solved numerically to obtain the equilibrium distributions. Finally, this work is motivated by potential application to passive interrogation for detection of diverted nuclear materials as well to criticality safety. The equilibrium neutron number probability distribution in subcritical systems has been numerically investigated for several models of the induced and spontaneous fission multiplicity distribution. A well known approximate but closed form solution, namely the quadratic model, was shown to be unacceptably accurate for subcritical media. The matrix inversion and the recursion methods agree well and were benchmarked with the binary fission model, but the recursion formulation proves far more computationally efficient. A qualitative change in the shape of the neutron PDF is observed for increasing source strength, as expected, and a transition from a stochastic to a deterministic system is expected for a sufficiently strong source. We are currently extending this approach to obtain the equilibrium joint distribution of neutrons within the system and those that have leaked, to explicitly represent the neutron PDF as observed by an external detector. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Prediction of shock initiation thresholds and ignition probability of polymer-bonded explosives using mesoscale simulations

The design of new materials requires establishment of macroscopic measures of material performance as functions of microstructure. Traditionally, this process has been an empirical endeavor. In this paper, an approach to computationally predict the probabilistic ignition thresholds of polymer-bonded explosives (PBXs) using mesoscale simulations is developed. The simulations explicitly account for microstructure, constituent properties, and interfacial responses and capture processes responsible for the development of hotspots and damage. The specific mechanisms tracked include viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity, fracture, post-fracture contact, frictional heating, and heat conduction. The probabilistic analysis uses sets of statistically similar microstructure samples to directly mimic relevant experiments for quantification of statistical variations of material behavior due to inherent material heterogeneities. The particular thresholds and ignition probabilities predicted are expressed in James type and Walker–Wasley type relations, leading to the establishment of explicit analytical expressions for the ignition probability as function of loading. Specifically, the ignition thresholds corresponding to any given level of ignition probability and ignition probability maps are predicted for PBX 9404 for the loading regime of U p = 200–1200 m/s where U p is the particle speed. The predicted results are in good agreement with available experimental measurements. A parametric study also shows that binder properties can significantly affect the macroscopic ignition behavior of PBXs. Finally, the capability to computationally predict the macroscopic engineering material response relations out of material microstructures and basic constituent and interfacial properties lends itself to the design of new materials as well as the analysis of existing materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Radiative transition probabilities of neutral and singly ionized Europium estimated by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS)

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a versatile technique for compositional analysis for solids, liquids, or gasses. LIBS is an asset for the quantitative or qualitative analysis of resource limited materials like actinides and rare earths because it is quasi-nondestructive. Two Eu 2 O 3 pellets were synthesized to be a test and validation set, respectively. Spectral lines identified from the National Institute of Standards and Technology database with fundamental data reported were used to form Saha-Boltzmann plots. The Saha-Boltzmann plots were used to determine the plasma temperatures and electron densities of the laser-induced plasmas for both samples. These Saha-Boltzmann plots were then used to calculate previously unreported transition probabilities associated with identified peaks. Additionally, the transition probabilities presented in this paper provide the capability for calibration free LIBS to be performed more readily on europium samples and the spectroscopic analysis of stellar bodies. Eight previously unreported transition probabilities are presented in this paper; five for Eu I and three for Eu II. The transition probabilities for Eu I ranged from 0.172 to 7.38 × 10 7 s -1 and those for Eu II ranged from 1.56 to 6.75 × 10 7 s -1 .

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Measurement of spin-flip probabilities for ultracold neutrons interacting with nickel phosphorus coated surfaces

In this paper, we report a measurement of the spin-flip probabilities for ultracold neutrons interacting with surfaces coated with nickel phosphorus. For 50 μm thick nickel phosphorus coated on stainless steel, the spin-flip probability per bounce was found to be β NiP on SS = (3.3 +1.8, -5.6) X 10 -6 . For 50 μm thick nickel phosphorus coated on aluminum, the spin-flip probability per bounce was found to be β NiP on Al = (3.6 +2.1, -5.9) X 10 -6 . For the copper guide used as reference, the spin flip probability per bounce was found to be β Cu = (6.7 + 5.0, -2.5) X 10 -6 . The results on the nickel phosphorus-coated surfaces may be interpreted as upper limits, yielding β NiP on SS < 6.2 X 10 -6 (90% C.L.) and β NiP on Al < 7.0 X 10 -6 (90% C.L.) for 50 μm thick nickel phosphorus coated on stainless steel and 50 μm thick nickel phosphorus coated on aluminum, respectively. Finally, nickel phosphorus coated stainless steel or aluminum provides a solution when low-cost, mechanically robust, and non-depolarizing UCN guides with a high Fermi potential are needed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Asymptotic inconsistency of the cumulative algorithm for laser-induced damage probability analysis

The “cumulative algorithm” is a data analysis method that has been proposed to provide an objective, nonparametric determination of laser-induced damage probability as a function of fluence from experimental data that contain both damaged sites and undamaged sites (i.e., 1-on-1 or S-on-1 testing protocols). In this work, the limitations of this approach are explored by considering the asymptotic limit of a large number of test sites. It is shown that the cumulative algorithm does not converge to the true probability distribution and significantly underestimates the damage probability near the damage onset. Here, based on the results of this work, the cumulative algorithm is not recommended for accurate estimation of damage probability.

Computational methods↗

The reproduction number and its probability distribution for stochastic viral dynamics

We consider stochastic models of individual infected cells. The reproduction number, R, is understood as a random variable representing the number of new cells infected by one initial infected cell in an otherwise susceptible (target cell) population. Variability in R results partly from heterogeneity in the viral burst size (the number of viral progeny generated from an infected cell during its lifetime), which depends on the distribution of cellular lifetimes and on the mechanism of virion release. We analyse viral dynamics models with an eclipse phase: the period of time after a cell is infected but before it is capable of releasing virions. The duration of the eclipse, or the subsequent infectious, phase is non-exponential, but composed of stages. We derive the probability distribution of the reproduction number for these viral dynamics models, and show it is a negative binomial distribution in the case of constant viral release from infectious cells, and under the assumption of an excess of target cells. In a deterministic model, the ultimate in-host establishment or extinction of the viral infection depends entirely on whether the mean reproduction number is greater than, or less than, one, respectively. Here, the probability of extinction is determined by the probability distribution of R, not simply its mean value. In particular, we show that in some cases the probability of infection is not an increasing function of the mean reproduction number.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Resolution of a discrepancy in the γ-ray emission probability from the β decay of 137 Ce g

We have deduced the emission probability of the 447-keV γ ray from the ε + β + decay of Ce g 137 (9.0 h) relative to that of the 254-keV γ ray from the Ce m 137 (34.4 h) decay in transient equilibrium. The time-dependent factor in transient equilibrium was applied following the Bateman equation for a radioactive decay chain. The isotope was produced via the La 139 ( p , 3 n ) Ce m , g 137 reaction by bombarding nat La with a proton beam from the 88-in. cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. γ -ray intensities were measured using an HPGe detector. The emission probability for the 447-keV γ ray deduced in this work is 1.21(3) (that is 1.21 ± 0.03) per hundred parent decays, which differs significantly from an earlier published value of 2.24(10). We identify the source of this discrepancy to be an incorrect use of the time-dependent factor. Additionally, we have deduced the emission probability of the 504-keV γ ray from the decay of Y g 85 (2.68 h) relative to that of the 232-keV γ ray from the Sr m 85 (1.127 h) decay in transient equilibrium. The isotope was produced via the Sr 86 ( p , 2 n ) Y g 85 reaction by bombarding SrCO 3 86 with a proton beam at the same facility. Overall, the study confirms the assumption of the time-dependent correction for recommending the emission probability of the 504-keV γ ray in the literature. Our work highlights the importance of explicit description by authors of any time-dependent correction they have made when reporting γ -ray intensities for nuclides in transient equilibrium. The need and significance of accurate and precise decay data of Ce g 137 and Y g 85 in basic science and medicine is briefly outlined.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Improved naive Bayesian probability classifier in predictions of nuclear mass

Recently, novel statistical methods such as neural networks and Bayesian learning methods are implemented to describe the nuclear masses. Based on previous studies, an improved naive Bayesian probability (iNBP) classifier is proposed to study the nuclear masses by refining the results of sophisticated nuclear models. In the iNBP method, the prediction for nuclear masses is treated as a classification problem. The residuals are classified into several groups to generate prior and conditional probabilities, and the posterior probabilities are further determined by the Bayesian formula. We choose the expectation with maximum probability as the final prediction. Reliability of the iNBP method is assessed by analyzing the global optimizations and the extrapolating capabilities. Here, the iNBP method exhibits impressive improvements on global descriptions for different mass models. Moreover, the method shows robust extrapolating capabilities. Results demonstrate the iNBP method can be applied to predict the nuclear masses of unknown regions. Considering the local mass relations, the iNBP method can offer considerable fine-tuning of the mass descriptions from nuclear models. The methodology proposed in this paper can also be applied to other model-based extrapolations of nuclear observables.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Failure Probability Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow

Despite cascading failures being the central cause of blackouts in power transmission systems, existing operational and planning decisions are made largely by ignoring their underlying cascade potential. This paper posits a reliability-aware AC Optimal Power Flow formulation that seeks to design a dispatch point which has a low operator-specified likelihood of triggering a cascade starting from any single component outage. By exploiting a recently developed analytical model of the probability of component failure, our Failure Probability-constrained ACOPF (FP-ACOPF) utilizes the system's expected first failure time as a smoothly tunable and interpretable signature of cascade risk. Here, we use techniques from bilevel optimization and numerical linear algebra to efficiently formulate and solve the FP-ACOPF using off-the-shelf solvers. Extensive simulations on the IEEE 118-bus case show that, when compared to the unconstrained and N-1 security-constrained ACOPF, our probability-constrained dispatch points can significantly lower the probabilities of long severe cascades and of large demand losses, while incurring only minor increases in total generation costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reduced probabilities for E2 transitions between excited collective states of triaxial even–even nuclei

Reduced probabilities for intra- and interband E2 transitions in excited collective states of even–even lanthanide and actinide nuclei are analyzed on the basis of a model that admits an arbitrary triaxiality. They are studied in detail in the energy spectra of {sup 154}Sm, {sup 156}Gd, {sup 158}Dy, {sup 162,164}Er, {sup 230,232}Th, and {sup 232,234,236,238}U even–even nuclei. Theoretical and experimental values of the reduced probabilities for the respective E2 transitions are compared. This comparison shows good agreement for all states, including high-spin ones. The ratios of the reduced probabilities for the E2 transitions in question are compared with results following from the Alaga rules. These comparisons make it possible to assess the sensitivity of the probabilities being considered to the presence of quadrupole deformations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Differential Seismic Phase Detection Probability as a Potential Discriminant of Explosions and Earthquakes

Deep learning models trained to estimate the probability of seismic P and S phases are rapidly expanding the scale of local event detections. Here, we evaluate the potential for deep learning model output phase detection probabilities to contribute to event‐type classification, particularly discrimination of single‐fired borehole explosions and earthquakes at local distances (<300 km). Motivated by the empirical success of P/S amplitude ratios, we consider the difference between P and S pick probability output from previously developed phase detection models, P prob −S prob ⁠, as a discriminant. Test data include M L ∼1–4 earthquakes and explosions observed by common seismographs in ten geologically diverse localities. Depending on the picking model and training data, binary classification using P prob −S prob with at least three stations can achieve approximately equivalent classification accuracy as P/S amplitude ratios without requiring any customization. Joint classification with P/S and P prob −S prob improves accuracy for most quality control scenarios. Pick probabilities are an efficient attribute to consider in explosion discrimination because they can be automated byproducts of event detection. They avoid the binary choice of picking or not picking weakly visible S waves common to explosions.

Duan, Chenglong [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (United S↗

Quantifying Uncertainty in All-to-All Estimates of Space Object Conjunction Probabilities using U-Statistics

Predicting space object conjunctions is inherently probabilistic due to initial state and orbit model uncertainty. A commonly considered Monte Carlo estimator of the conjunction probability is the ’all-to-all’ estimator. Given independent random samples of the trajectories of both objects, the estimator is the percentage of all pairs of trajectories that result in a conjunction. Intuitively, the all-to-all estimator is the best possible estimator of the conjunction probability since it considers all pairs of Monte Carlo samples. However, its distribution is not available in closed-form, which limits its use in practice and makes this intuition difficult to make rigorous. In this paper, the all-to-all estimator is identified as a U-statistic, which implies that it has several favorable properties. Specifically, the estimator is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the conjunction probability and is asymptotically Gaussian distributed. An approximate confidence interval for the conjunction probability is obtained from an estimate of the asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how to efficiently compute the confidence interval and demonstrate that the interval has the nominal coverage level. The confidence intervals are also seen to be narrower than those based on the commonly-used each-to-each estimator. Furthermore, the all-to-all estimator is shown to allow different Monte Carlo sample sizes, whereas the each-to-each estimator requires equal sample sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge PLAsTiCC: Selection of a Performance Metric for Classification Probabilities Balancing Diverse Science Goals

Classification of transient and variable light curves is an essential step in using astronomical observations to develop an understanding of the underlying physical processes from which they arise. However, upcoming deep photometric surveys, including the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), will produce a deluge of low signal-to-noise data for which traditional type estimation procedures are inappropriate. Probabilistic classification is more appropriate for such data but is incompatible with the traditional metrics used on deterministic classifications. Furthermore, large survey collaborations like LSST intend to use the resulting classification probabilities for diverse science objectives, indicating a need for a metric that balances a variety of goals. We describe the process used to develop an optimal performance metric for an open classification challenge that seeks to identify probabilistic classifiers that can serve many scientific interests. The Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLASTICC) aims to identify promising techniques for obtaining classification probabilities of transient and variable objects by engaging a broader community beyond astronomy. Using mock classification probability submissions emulating realistically complex archetypes of those anticipated of PLASTICC, we compare the sensitivity of two metrics of classification probabilities under various weighting schemes, finding that both yield results that are qualitatively consistent with intuitive notions of classification performance. We thus choose as a metric for PLASTICC a weighted modification of the cross-entropy because it can be meaningfully interpreted in terms of information content. Finally, we propose extensions of our methodology to ever more complex challenge goals and suggest some guiding principles for approaching the choice of a metric of probabilistic data products.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probability of satellite collision

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Mccarter, J. W.↗

Guide star probabilities

Probabilities are calculated for acquiring suitable guide stars (GS) with the fine guidance system (FGS) of the space telescope. A number of the considerations and techniques described are also relevant for other space astronomy missions. The constraints of the FGS are reviewed. The available data on bright star densities are summarized and a previous error in the literature is corrected. Separate analytic and Monte Carlo calculations of the probabilities are described. A simulation of space telescope pointing is carried out using the Weistrop north galactic pole catalog of bright stars. Sufficient information is presented so that the probabilities of acquisition can be estimated as a function of position in the sky. The probability of acquiring suitable guide stars is greatly increased if the FGS can allow an appreciable difference between the (bright) primary GS limiting magnitude and the (fainter) secondary GS limiting magnitude.

Soneira, R. M.↗