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DOE OSTI2024

The reproduction number and its probability distribution for stochastic viral dynamics

We consider stochastic models of individual infected cells. The reproduction number, R, is understood as a random variable representing the number of new cells infected by one initial infected cell in an otherwise susceptible (target cell) population. Variability in R results partly from heterogeneity in the viral burst size (the number of viral progeny generated from an infected cell during its lifetime), which depends on the distribution of cellular lifetimes and on the mechanism of virion release. We analyse viral dynamics models with an eclipse phase: the period of time after a cell is infected but before it is capable of releasing virions. The duration of the eclipse, or the subsequent infectious, phase is non-exponential, but composed of stages. We derive the probability distribution of the reproduction number for these viral dynamics models, and show it is a negative binomial distribution in the case of constant viral release from infectious cells, and under the assumption of an excess of target cells. In a deterministic model, the ultimate in-host establishment or extinction of the viral infection depends entirely on whether the mean reproduction number is greater than, or less than, one, respectively. Here, the probability of extinction is determined by the probability distribution of R, not simply its mean value. In particular, we show that in some cases the probability of infection is not an increasing function of the mean reproduction number.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The MIGDAL experiment: Measuring a rare atomic process to aid the search for dark matter

We present the Migdal In Galactic Dark mAtter expLoration (MIGDAL) experiment aiming at the unambiguous observation and study of the so-called Migdal effect induced by fast-neutron scattering. It is hoped that this elusive atomic process can be exploited to enhance the reach of direct dark matter search experiments to lower masses, but it is still lacking experimental confirmation. Our goal is to detect the predicted atomic electron emission which is thought to accompany nuclear scattering with low, but calculable, probability, by deploying an Optical Time Projection Chamber filled with a low-pressure gas based on CF 4 . Initially, pure CF 4 will be used, and then in mixtures containing other elements employed by leading dark matter search technologies — including noble species, plus Si and Ge. High resolution track images generated by a Gas Electron Multiplier stack, together with timing information from scintillation and ionisation readout, will be used for 3D reconstruction of the characteristic event topology expected for this process — an arrangement of two tracks sharing a common vertex, with one belonging to a Migdal electron and the other to a nuclear recoil. Different energy-loss rate distributions along both tracks will be used as a powerful discrimination tool against background events. In this article we present the design of the experiment, informed by extensive particle and track simulations and detailed estimations of signal and background rates. In pure CF 4 we expect to observe 8.9 (29.3) Migdal events per calendar day of exposure to an intense D–D (D–T) neutron generator beam at the NILE facility located at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (UK). With our nominal assumptions, 5σ median discovery significance can be achieved in under one day with either generator.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stress-Controlled Creep–Fatigue of an Advanced Austenitic Stainless Steel at Elevated Temperatures

Creep–fatigue interaction occurs in many structural components of high-temperature systems operating under cyclic and steady-state service conditions, such as in nuclear power plants, aerospace, naval, and other industrial applications. Thus, understanding micromechanisms governing high-temperature creep–fatigue behavior is essential for safety and design considerations. In this work, stress-controlled creep–fatigue tests of advanced austenitic stainless steel (Alloy 709) were performed at a 400 MPa stress range and 750 °C with tensile hold times of 0, 60, 600, 1800, and 3600 s, followed by microstructural examinations. The creep–fatigue lifetime of the Alloy 709 was found to decrease with increasing hold time until reaching a saturation level where the number of cycles to failure did not exhibit a significant decrease. Softening behavior was observed at the beginning of the test, possibly due to the recovery of entangled dislocations and de-twining. In addition, hysteresis loops showed ratcheting behavior, although the mean stress was zero during creep–fatigue cycling, which was attributed to activity of partial dislocations. Microstructural examination of the fracture surfaces showed that fatigue failure dominated at small hold times where the cracks initiated at the surface of the sample. Larger creep cracks were found for longer hold times with a lower probability of dimpled cavities, indicating the dominance of creep deformation. The results were compared with other commonly used stainless steels, and plausible reasons for the observed responses were described.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

β — -delayed fission in the coupled quasiparticle random-phase approximation plus Hauser-Feshbach approach

Beta-delayed neutron emission and β-delayed fission (βdf) probabilities were calculated for heavy, neutronrich nuclei using the Los Alamos coupled quasiparticle random-phase approximation plus Hauser-Feshbach (QRPA + HF) approach. In this model, the compound nucleus is initially populated by β decay and is followed through subsequent statistical decays taking into account competition among neutrons, γ rays, and fission. The primary output of these calculations includes branching ratios along with neutron and γ -ray spectra. Here, we find a relatively large region of heavy nuclides where the probability of βdf is near 100%. For a subset of nuclei near the neutron drip line, delayed neutron emission and the probability of fission are both large, which leads to the possibility of multichance βdf (mc-βdf). We comment on prospective neutron-rich nuclei that could be probed by future experimental campaigns and provide a full table of branching ratios in ASCII format in the Supplemental Material for use in various applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Demonstration of CFD to support the coupled analysis of a reactor pressure vessel subjected to pressurized thermal shock

The structural components that comprise nuclear reactors and their supporting structures are subjected to harsh operating environments that can challenge their integrity, especially after exposure for extended duration or under accident condition. As one of the most significant components of a reactor, the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is exposed to an aggressive environment during the operation time (e.g. more than 40 years). Aging degradation mechanisms (e.g. thermo-fatigue) could grow initial defects up to a critical size, increasing the susceptibility to failure in the RPV. The conventional methods are mostly based on simple crack and structure geometries. Very limited studies consider the real conditions of the RPV subjected to a thermal shock due to a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). During a LOCA event, the most severe conditions take place when the emergency core cooling (ECC) water is injected inside the cold legs filled initially with hotter water and/or steam. The rapid cooling of the down-comer and the internal RPV surface followed probably by re-pressurization of the RPV causes large temperature gradients and variation of pressure which induces thermal-mechanical stresses. In order to develop the model for integrity assessment of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized thermal shock (PTS), a multi-physics simulation, which includes the thermo-hydraulic, thermo-mechanical and fracture mechanics analyses is necessary. The prediction of the temperature field is achieved by using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. In this report, a demonstration CFD standalone simulation is performed to support coupled analysis for Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS). The study use a simplified computational domain to represents a real RPV. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate the transient temperature response of RPV to ECC injection. The CFD model is built in a robust and efficient way for further coupled calculation. The next steps of this work, including the coupled thermal and tensor mechanics capabilities using Cardinal are expected to be complete by the end of FY21 for the demo problem. After this, into FY22, the capability will be demonstrated for a realistic RPV.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi physics simulation on Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) by using Cardinal

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

INVESTIGATION OF HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS METHODS FOR ANALYZING PRE-INITIATORS

As a type of human actions defined in human reliability analysis (HRA), pre-initiator refers to the human actions that may lead to the unavailability of systems, typically committed during maintenance, test, or calibration. This paper investigates representative HRA methods used for analyzing pre-initiators. The HRA methods are Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA) and Standard Plant Risk HRA (SPAR-H). In this paper, characteristics of each HRA method are compared for qualitative and quantification aspects. Two pre-initiators, i.e., a calibration task and a valve restoration task, are analyzed using the HRA methods to compare human error probabilities. Then, insights from the analysis and additional research requirements are discussed in this paper.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detecting keyhole porosity and monitoring process signatures in additive manufacturing: an in situ pyrometry and ex situ X-ray radiography correlation

Creation of pores and defects during laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) can lead to poor mechanical properties and thus must be minimized. Post-build inspection is required to ensure the printed parts contain acceptably low defect concentrations. These inspections are time consuming and costly, especially for large or complex parts. As a potential solution, in situ process monitoring can be used to detect the creation of defects, characterize local material behavior and predict expected component properties. However, the precise relationship between pore creation and in situ process monitoring still needs to be understood. In this work, high-speed infrared diode-based pyrometry and high-speed optical imaging signals were used to monitor LPBF printing of 446 stainless steel 316 L single tracks with varying laser power and velocity. Results indicate an increase in pyrometer signal and melt pool dimensions with increasing laser power and decreasing velocity in agreement with previous work. In addition, careful analysis of pyrometer signal reveals a distinct signature of the conduction-to-keyhole mode transition which was confirmed by metallography. Critically, pore defect initiation as characterized by ex situ X-ray radiography was correlated with in situ thermal monitoring signals to derive the probability of defect creation. Our results show that, in principle, a probabilistic prediction of pore formation can be achieved based on in situ high-speed pyrometry monitoring of the LPBF melt pool.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fuzzy Euclidean wormholes in the inflationary universe

In this paper, we investigate complex-valued Euclidean wormholes in the Starobinsky inflation. Due to the properties of the concave inflation potential, the classicality condition at both ends of the wormhole can be satisfied, as long as the initial condition of the inflation field is such that it is located sufficiently close to the hilltop. Furthermore, we compare the probabilities of classicalized wormholes with the Hartle–Hawking compact instantons and conclude that the Euclidean wormholes are probabilistically preferred than compact instantons, if the inflation lasts more than 50 e-foldings. Our result assumes that the Euclidean path integral is the correct effective description of quantum gravity. This opens a new window for various future investigations that can be either confirmed or refuted by future experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Numerical quantum clock simulations for measuring tunneling times

Here, we numerically study two methods of measuring tunneling times using a quantum clock. In the conventional method using the Larmor clock, we show that the Larmor tunneling time can be shorter for higher tunneling barriers. In the second method, we study the probability of a spin-flip of a particle when it is transmitted through a potential barrier including a spatially rotating field interacting with its spin. According to the adiabatic theorem, the probability depends on the velocity of the particle inside the barrier. It is numerically observed that the probability increases for higher barriers, which is consistent with the result obtained by the Larmor clock. By comparing outcomes for different initial spin states, we suggest that one of the main causes of the apparent decrease in the tunneling time can be the filtering effect occurring at the end of the barrier.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

ccp137/SUGAR

This package (SUrface-wave Grader with ARtificial intelligence or SUGAR) automatically assigns a quality score to surface-wave seismograms (SAC format) using a trained artificial neural network model (included). Specifically, the python script 01_apply_ann.py calculates probability scores for a list of SAC files. You may consider seismograms with probability scores larger than 0.5 as acceptable data. Note no scores will be given to seismograms that do not pass an initial check (e.g., insufficient number of data points). See https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10507941.3 for more details.

Chai, Chengping [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), O↗

DOE OSTI2021

RAVEN User Manual

RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism includes providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These APIs are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response, and investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused to- ward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN has started in 2012, when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework became stronger. RAVEN principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concept developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just the individuation of the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the closeness (or not) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. for an important process such as peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. The initial development of RAVEN has been focused on providing dynamic risk assessment capability to RELAP-7, currently under development at the INL and, likely, future replacement of the RELAP5-3D code. Most the capabilities that have been implemented having RELAP-7 as principal focus are easily deployable for other system codes. For this reason, several side activates are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with soft- ware such as RELAP5-3D, etc. The aim of this document is the explanation of the input requirements, focalizing on the input structure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

GANISP: A GAN-Assisted Importance Splitting Probability Estimator: Preprint

To reduce the variance of rare event probability estimator, genealogical importance splitting marches towards a rare event by iteratively selecting and replicating realizations that are headed towards a rare event. The replication step is made difficult when applied to deterministic systems as the initial conditions of the offspring realizations need to be modified. Typically, a random perturbation is applied to the offspring to differentiate their trajectory from the parent realization. It is shown that a random perturbation strategy may be effective for some systems but may also fail for others, thereby preventing variance reduction in the probability estimate. To address this limitation, it is proposed to use a generative model such as a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to generate perturbations that are consistent with the attractor of the dynamical system. The GAN-assisted Importance SPlitting method (GANISP) improves the variance reduction for the system targeted. An implementation of the method is available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NREL/GANISP).

generative adversarial network↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust scalable initialization for Bayesian variational inference with multi-modal Laplace approximations

Predictive modeling typically relies on Bayesian model calibration to provide uncertainty quantification. Variational inference utilizing fully independent (“mean-field”) Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions. This simplification is attractive since the number of variational parameters grows only linearly with the number of unknown model parameters. However, the resulting diagonal covariance structure and unimodal behavior can be too restrictive to provide useful approximations of intractable Bayesian posteriors that exhibit highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors for these problems can be obtained by considering the family of Gaussian mixtures. Gaussian mixtures are capable of capturing multiple modes and approximating any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy, while maintaining some analytical tractability. Unfortunately, variational inference using Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. The existence of multiple local minima due to strong nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference present additional complications, These challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and computational scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with a global optimization stage in model parameter space. In this step, local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace approximation. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. The robustness and scalability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through application to an ensemble of synthetic tests using high-dimensional, multimodal probability density functions. Here, the practical aspects of the approach are demonstrated with inversion problems in structural dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electrochemical loading enhances deuterium fusion rates in a metal target

Nuclear fusion research for energy applications aims to create conditions that release more energy than required to initiate the fusion process1. To generate meaningful amounts of energy, fuels such as deuterium need to be spatially confined to increase the collision probability of particles2, 3–4. We therefore set out to investigate whether electrochemically loading a metal lattice with deuterium fuel could increase the probability of nuclear fusion events. Here we report a benchtop fusion reactor that enabled us to bombard a palladium metal target with deuterium ions. These deuterium ions undergo deuterium–deuterium fusion reactions within the palladium metal. We showed that the in situ electrochemical loading of deuterium into the palladium target resulted in a 15(2)% increase in deuterium–deuterium fusion rates. This experiment shows how the electrochemical loading of a metal target at the electronvolt energy scale can affect nuclear reactions at the megaelectronvolt energy scale.

Chen, Kuo-Yi↗

DOE OSTI2023

TRISO Burnup-Dependent Failure Analysis of a HTGR Design-Basis Accident Using BISON

Here, this work assesses the failure behavior of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in TRIstructural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel particles with BISON during both steady-state and transient conditions for the MHTGR-350 design by General Atomics. A one-dimensional BISON model for a uranium oxycarbide–bearing TRISO is developed to simulate a power level of 50 mW/particles up to 12.4% fissions per initial metal atom (FIMA). Stress predictions for the materials of interest are presented as a function of burnup, along with the SiC failure probability computed using Weibull statistics under the assumption of realistic SiC quality.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

An integrative framework reveals widespread gene flow during the early radiation of oaks and relatives in Quercoideae (Fagaceae)

ABSTRACT Although the frequency of ancient hybridization across the Tree of Life is greater than previously thought, little work has been devoted to uncovering the extent, timeline, and geographic and ecological context of ancient hybridization. Using an expansive new dataset of nuclear and chloroplast DNA sequences, we conducted a multifaceted phylogenomic investigation to identify ancient reticulation in the early evolution of oaks (Quercus). We document extensive nuclear gene tree and cytonuclear discordance among major lineages ofQuercusand relatives in Quercoideae. Our analyses recovered clear signatures of gene flow against a backdrop of rampant incomplete lineage sorting, with gene flow most prevalent among major lineages ofQuercusand relatives in Quercoideae during their initial radiation, dated to the Early‐Middle Eocene. Ancestral reconstructions including fossils suggest ancestors ofCastanea + Castanopsis,Lithocarpus, and the Old World oak clade probably co‐occurred in North America and Eurasia, while the ancestors ofChrysolepis, Notholithocarpus, and the New World oak clade co‐occurred in North America, offering ample opportunity for hybridization in each region. Our study shows that hybridization—perhaps in the form of ancient syngameons like those seen today—has been a common and important process throughout the evolutionary history of oaks and their relatives. Concomitantly, this study provides a methodological framework for detecting ancient hybridization in other groups.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Initial measurement of reactor antineutrino oscillation at SNO+

The SNO+ collaboration reports its first spectral analysis of long-baseline reactor antineutrino oscillation using 114 tonne-years of data. Fitting the neutrino oscillation probability to the observed energy spectrum yields constraints on the neutrino mass-squared difference Δ$m^2_{21}$. In the ranges allowed by previous measurements, the best-fit Δ$m^2_{21}$ is ($8.85^{+1.10}_{-1.33}$) × 10 -5 eV 2 . This measurement is continuing in the next phases of SNO+ and is expected to surpass the present global precision on Δ$m^2_{21}$ with about three years of data. In the following, we first describe the configuration of the SNO+ detector when it was partially filled with scintillator, and a characterization of the detector response using intrinsic radioactivity. Next, we detail the event selection and expectations for reactor IBDs and (α, n) reactions. Then, we present the results of an energy spectrum analysis using 114 tonne-years of data. We conclude with prospects of future results from the SNO+ detector, which has been operating fully-filled with 780 tonnes of scintillator

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗