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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automation of the Uncertainty Quantification Process Based on Probability Boxes with DAKOTA

To date, while the use of CFD is prevalent, very few efforts have been undertaken that truly attempt to document all (or even most) of the sources of uncertainty in the simulations. Instead, the current state-of-the-art relies heavily on the experience of the CFD practitioner to estimate the uncertainty associated with their simulations through simple sensitivity studies or subject matter expertise. This practice will have to be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification (UQ) process if CFD is to play an expanded role in the design research and engineering community, test and evaluation community, and ultimately certification for flight. This is especially true for hypersonic air-breathing propulsion systems due to the environment, scale, and duration limitations of ground test facilities. Accounting for uncertainties in a formal manner is a tedious process. Moreover, the typical CFD practitioner is not likely to be familiar with formal UQ methods. Hence, a major obstacle that has prevented the adoption of UQ methods for engineering design and development work is the lack of a tool set to automate most (if not all) of the UQ workflow. Towards this end, the SANDIA package DAKOTA (which has been developed to drive both UQ and optimization processes) will be tightly wrapped around the VULCAN-CFD code to automate the uncertainty quantification process. The automated process will be applied to an isolator turbulence model validation exercise that has previously been documented using a manual approach to the UQ process. Hence, the focus of this paper will be documenting the level to which automation can hide the UQ process details from the CFD practitioner rather than the UQ method itself.

CFD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks for Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Uncertainty Quantification

In this paper we propose a new approach for nonlinear regression and uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a pair of neural networks which parameterize mean and dense covariance functions of a multivariate Gaussian process, trained together to maximize the log-likelihood of observing the given data. The covariance matrix is made positive definite at every input by construction. We also propose a sampling approach that produces viable surrogate function realizations from the Gaussian process. We call the proposed model a Structured Covariance Gaussian Network (SCGN). We illustrate the use of SCGNs for learning an aerodynamic response surface with built-in uncertainty for the Orion crew module. We find that SCGN provides an efficient and systematic way to learn nonlinear functional relationships and dense covariances. We compare results to a baseline Gaussian process regressor and observe that the SCGN provides comparable uncertainty descriptions with improved scalability to dataset size. The sample functions generated by SCGN are fast to evaluate online and are therefore convenient for use in trajectory simulations. These results suggest that SCGN may be a viable computational method for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Structured Covariance Gaussian Networks for Orion Crew Module Aerodynamic Uncertainty Quantification

In this paper we propose a new approach for nonlinear regression and uncertainty quantification. The method is based on a pair of neural networks which parameterize mean and dense covariance functions of a multivariate Gaussian process, trained together to maximize the log-likelihood of observing the given data. The covariance matrix is made positive definite at every input by construction. We also propose a sampling approach that produces viable surrogate function realizations from the Gaussian process. We call the proposed model a Structured Covariance Gaussian Network (SCGN). We illustrate the use of SCGNs for learning an aerodynamic response surface with built-in uncertainty for the Orion crew module. We find that SCGN provides an efficient and systematic way to learn nonlinear functional relationships and dense covariances. We compare results to a baseline Gaussian process regressor and observe that the SCGN provides comparable uncertainty descriptions with improved scalability to dataset size. The sample functions generated by SCGN are fast to evaluate online and are therefore convenient for use in trajectory simulations. These results suggest that SCGN may be a viable computational method for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development Strategies for Uncertainty Quantification to Enable Aircraft Certification by Analysis

Aircraft Certification by Analysis (CbA) is a broad term that describes the process by which engineering analysis tools are used to supplement flight testing to demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements. For each requirement that is to be met through this process, the analysis tools must be sufficiently accurate to ensure that an equivalent level of safety is obtained as if the aircraft to be certified had been flight tested for the requirement. In recent decades, the ability of analysis tools to accurately predict aircraft performance has improved dramatically, leading to increasing interest and limited early adoption of Certification by Analysis across the aerospace industry. However, rigorously demonstrating the credibility of analysis tools remains a challenge for many types of certification requirements, yet is necessary for widespread adoption of CbA approaches in the future. The field of uncertainty quantification is well-suited to address this problem, but will require substantial advances in order to achieve the ambitious industry goals for Certification by Analysis. The objective of this position paper is to highlight gaps in the current technical and programmatic state of uncertainty quantification. Four main categories – Mindset & Awareness, Tools & Capabilities, Data and Benchmarks for V&V, and Applied Research & Established Processes – will be introduced. Each of these categories contains several shortcomings and impediments which, if overcome, will enable more widespread possibilities for Certification by Analysis in the 2040-2050 timeframe.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantification of High‐Temperature Transition Al 2 O 3 and Their Phase Transformations**

Abstract High‐temperature treatment of γ‐Al 2 O 3 can lead to a series of polymorphic transformations, including the formation of δ‐Al 2 O 3 and θ‐Al 2 O 3 . Quantification of the microstructure in the range where δ‐ and θ‐Al 2 O 3 are formed represents a formidable challenge, as both phases accommodate a high degree of structural disorder. In this work, we explore the use of an XRD recursive‐stacking formalism for the quantification of high‐temperature transition aluminas. We formulate the recursive‐stacking methodology for modelling of disorder in δ‐Al 2 O 3 and twinning in θ‐Al 2 O 3 and show that explicitly accounting for the disorder is necessary to reliably model the XRD patterns of high‐temperature transition alumina. We also use the recursive stacking approach to study phase transformation during high‐temperature (1050 °C) treatment. We show that the two different intergrowth modes of δ‐Al 2 O 3 have different transformation characteristics and that a significant portion of δ‐Al 2 O 3 is stabilized with θ‐Al 2 O 3 even after prolonged high‐temperature exposures.

Kovarik, Libor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification for nuclear forensics with population analyses

Although neural networks offer cutting-edge predictive power, their deployment in high-consequence nuclear forensic applications is limited, partly because of their black-box nature. Incorporating robust uncertainty quantification methods into the predictive frameworks of neural networks is progress towards their future deployment in such scenarios. This work integrates uncertainty quantification into neural networks for nuclear reactor core-average burnup estimation from simulated environmental samples. We test two regimes (homogeneous and heterogeneous events) on DeepSets and Set Transformer architectures, we find both quantify predictive uncertainty effectively, but Set Transformer excels in partitioning latent events, offering superior predictive power and more informative uncertainty estimates.

Hatton, Conner [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000804970959)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification in Atomistic Modeling of Metals and Its Effect on Mesoscale and Continuum Modeling: A Review

The design of next-generation alloys through the integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) approach relies on multiscale computer simulations to provide thermodynamic properties when experiments are difficult to conduct. Atomistic methods such as density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) have been successful in predicting properties of never before studied compounds or phases. However, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of DFT and MD results is rarely reported due to computational and UQ methodology challenges. Over the past decade, studies that mitigate this gap have emerged. These advances are reviewed in the context of thermodynamic modeling and information exchange with mesoscale methods such as the phase-field method (PFM) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD). The importance of UQ is illustrated using properties of metals, with aluminum as an example, and highlighting deterministic, frequentist, and Bayesian methodologies. Finally, challenges facing routine uncertainty quantification and an outlook on addressing them are also presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and optimization of precipitating hydrometeor parameters for winter precipitation in a cloud microphysics scheme

The precipitating hydrometeor parameters used in cloud microphysics schemes carry inherent uncertainties. The quantification of these uncertainties, together with parameter optimization, can significantly improve precipitation forecasts. This study investigates the effects of 13 parameters in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme, which define the hydrometeor characteristics such as fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships, as well as the shape parameter of the drop size distribution for precipitating particles such as rain, snow, and graupel on simulated winter precipitation. A comparison between the model's pre-defined parameters and observations from the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign reveals that the fall velocity–diameter relationship for rain, the mass–diameter relationships for snow and graupel, and the shape parameters for all precipitating particles in the WDM6 scheme deviate from the median values observed by the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). To quantify parameter sensitivities, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of 256 simulations was conducted within parameter ranges constrained by 2DVD observations for three winter precipitation cases. Bayesian optimization was then applied to identify parameter sets that minimized the root mean square error (RMSE) for each case, achieving reductions of up to 30.2 %. These results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and parameter optimization can help identify key parameters and provide a pathway to improving precipitation simulation performance. In addition, measurement sites can be strategically selected based on regions that show high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeor characteristic parameters.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2023

Realistic application of short-lived fission product delayed neutron, gamma-ray analysis for simultaneous nondestructive trace quantification of U, Pu mixtures on cellulose swipes

Detection and characterization of fissile traces are of interest to the international nuclear nonproliferation community, including the International Atomic Energy Agency. Pre-inspection check samples are analyzed by neutron activation analysis at the High Flux Isotope Reactor operated by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory under the umbrella of the IAEA Network of Analytical Laboratories. The simultaneous quantification of U and Pu mixtures was accomplished using the combined delayed neutron (DN) delayed gamma-ray (DG) method to analyze cellulose swipes with actinide loading <1ng in a blind field trial. The total fissile quantity was measured by the DN counts and the relative proportions of U, Pu were determined by calibration of the 104 Tc / 141 Ba fission product count ratio using known mixtures. The DNDG method demonstrated high accuracy in flagging the presence of 239 Pu in uranium down to <100 pg mass loading. In conclusion, peak significance tests helped to control false positive Pu flagging and simultaneous quantification of U and Pu loading was accomplished on samples that passed the significance tests.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of manganese for ChemCam Mars and laboratory spectra using a multivariate model

In this work, we report a new calibration model for manganese using the laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy instrument that is part of the ChemCam instrument suite onboard the NASA Curiosity rover. The model has been trained using an expanded set of 523 manganese-bearing rock, mineral, metal ore, and synthetic standards. The optimal calibration model uses the Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) multivariate techniques, with a novel “double blending” technique. We determined the detection limit for manganese is 82 ppm using a method blank procedure and is possibly as low as 27 ppm based on visual inspection of the spectra. Based on a representative test set consisting of measurements on 93 standards, the double blended multivariate model shows a Root Mean Squared Error of Prediction (RMSEP) accuracy of 1.39 wt% MnO for the full blended model. Employing a local RMSEP estimate where the model performance is evaluated based on nearby test samples, the accuracy is 0.03 wt% at the quantification limit (0.05 wt% MnO), 0.4 wt% accuracy at 1.0 wt% MnO, and 4.4 wt% accuracy at 100 wt% MnO. Precision is estimated using the standard deviation of the test set measurements, and is ±0.01 wt% MnO at the quantification limit, ±0.09 wt% MnO at 1.0 wt% MnO, and ± 2.1 wt% MnO at 100 wt% MnO (all 1 standard deviation). This new calibration is important for understanding the variation of manganese in the bedrock with the Curiosity rover on Mars, which provides insight into past redox conditions on Mars.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Post-landing major element quantification using SuperCam laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

The SuperCam instrument on the Perseverance Mars 2020 rover uses a pulsed 1064 nm laser to ablate targets at a distance and conduct laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) by analyzing the light from the resulting plasma. SuperCam LIBS spectra are preprocessed to remove ambient light, noise, and the continuum signal present in LIBS observations. Prior to quantification, spectra are masked to remove noisier spectrometer regions and spectra are normalized to minimize signal fluctuations and effects of target distance. In some cases, the spectra are also standardized or binned prior to quantification. To determine quantitative elemental compositions of diverse geologic materials at Jezero crater, Mars, we use a suite of 1198 laboratory spectra of 334 well-characterized reference samples. The samples were selected to span a wide range of compositions and include typical silicate rocks, pure minerals (e.g., silicates, sulfates, carbonates, oxides), more unusual compositions (e.g., Mn ore and sodalite), and replicates of the sintered SuperCam calibration targets (SCCTs) onboard the rover. For each major element (SiO 2 , TiO 2 , Al 2 O 3 , FeO T , MgO, CaO, Na 2 O, K 2 O), the database was subdivided into five “folds” with similar distributions of the element of interest. One fold was held out as an independent test set, and the remaining four folds were used to optimize multivariate regression models relating the spectrum to the composition. We considered a variety of models, and selected several for further investigation for each element, based primarily on the root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) on the test set, when analyzed at 3 m. In cases with several models of comparable performance at 3 m, we incorporated the SCCT performance at different distances to choose the preferred model. Shortly after landing on Mars and collecting initial spectra of geologic targets, we selected one model per element. Subsequently, with additional data from geologic targets, some models were revised to ensure results that are more consistent with geochemical constraints. The calibration discussed here is a snapshot of an ongoing effort to deliver the most accurate chemical compositions with SuperCam LIBS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

An ICP-OES method for the precise and accurate quantification of rare earth elements in natural water: A comparative study from mine waste sites in New Mexico, USA

Inductively coupled plasma techniques such as ICP-OES and ICP-MS are routinely used to determine the concentrations of rare earth elements (REE) in water samples. However, their performance for the determination of REE concentration in mine drainage waters from epithermal vein and porphyry copper mining districts has not been evaluated extensively. In this work, we develop an REE analysis method on an Agilent 5900 ICP-OES instrument and assess the accuracy and precision for the quantification of REE in the natural waters collected from mine adits and an acid seep of mine sites in the Steeple Rock and Hillsboro mining districts, New Mexico, USA. The total REE concentrations in the water samples were measured using the methods we developed for both ICP-OES and ICP-MS. The power of the new ICP-OES method lies in routine analysis of μg/L level concentrations normally analyzed using ICP-MS, including a U.S. Geological Survey standard reference sample, laboratory blank samples spiked with a National Institute of Standards and Technology traceable standard, and surface water samples from mine waste sites. This ICP-OES method achieves low quantification limits ranging from 0.2 to 5 μg/L and excellent analytical accuracy and precision for REE analysis. The precision of light (La-Gd) and heavy (Tb-Lu) REE analysis using this method are better than 5% at average concentrations above 5 ± 4 μg/L and 3 ± 2 μg/L, respectively, and 3% at average concentrations above 10 ± 9 μg/L and 5 ± 4 μg/L, respectively. This method also shows excellent sensitivity and reproducibility for our laboratory and field samples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

EZFF: Python library for multi-objective parameterization and uncertainty quantification of interatomic forcefields for molecular dynamics

Parameterization of interatomic forcefields is a necessary first step in performing molecular dynamics simulations. This is a non-trivial global optimization problem involving quantification of multiple empirical variables against one or more properties. We present EZFF, a lightweight Python library for parameterization of several types of interatomic forcefields implemented in several molecular dynamics engines against multiple objectives using genetic-algorithm-based global optimization methods. The EZFF scheme provides unique functionality such as the parameterization of hybrid forcefields composed of multiple forcefield interactions as well as built-in quantification of uncertainty in forcefield parameters and can be easily extended to other forcefield functional forms as well as MD engines.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cryo-nanoimaging of Single Human Macrophage Cells: 3D Structural and Chemical Quantification

X-ray microscopy is increasingly used in biology, but in most cases only in a qualitative way. We present here a 3D correlative cryo Xray microscopy approach suited for the quantification of molar concentrations and structure in native samples at nanometer scale. The multi-modal approach combines X-ray fluorescence and X-ray holographic nanotomography on ‘thick’ frozen-hydrated cells. Applied to complex macrophage cells, we extract the quantification of major and minor elements, as well as the density, in the different organelles. The intracellular landscape shows remarkable elemental differences. This novel analytical microscopy approach will be of particular interest to investigate complex biological and chemical systems in their native environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Defect Quantification in Metal Halide Perovskites Anticipates Photoluminescence and Photovoltaic Performance

Semiconductor material optimization requires quantification of performance and stability-dependent near-valence maximum and near-conduction minimum defects with sufficient energy resolution and sensitivity. In this work, we utilize a spectroscopy-electrochemistry approach to resolve the energy-distinct donor and acceptor defect concentrations in wide-gap (Cs .05 FA .79 MA .16 )Pb(I .87 Br .13 ) 3 perovskites, benchmarked against photoluminescence and photovoltaic device performance. Monitoring charge transfer events to electron acceptor and donor molecules within solid electrolyte top contacts enables defect quantification below 10 15 cm –3 at an energy resolution of 10 meV under device-relevant bias, well below levels reported by other methods. Further method sensitivity is demonstrated for defects arising from <2% formamidinium concentration modifications, mimicking compositional imperfections resulting from nonoptimized processing. This method provides the first complete perovskite energetic diagrams with small changes in composition, is nondestructive, compatible with in-line processing characterization, and will enable the semiconductor community to link molecular origins of defects with limitations in device performance across a wide array of optoelectronic platforms.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global protein turnover quantification in Escherichia coli reveals cytoplasmic recycling under nitrogen limitation

Protein turnover is critical for proteostasis, but turnover quantification is challenging, and even in well-studied E. coli, proteome-wide measurements remain scarce. Here, we quantify the turnover rates of ~3200 E. coli proteins under 13 conditions by combining heavy isotope labeling with complement reporter ion quantification and find that cytoplasmic proteins are recycled when nitrogen is limited. We use knockout experiments to assign substrates to the known cytoplasmic ATP-dependent proteases. Surprisingly, none of these proteases are responsible for the observed cytoplasmic protein degradation in nitrogen limitation, suggesting that a major proteolysis pathway in E. coli remains to be discovered. Lastly, we show that protein degradation rates are generally independent of cell division rates. Thus, we present broadly applicable technology for protein turnover measurements and provide a rich resource for protein half-lives and protease substrates in E. coli, complementary to genomics data, that will allow researchers to study the control of proteostasis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification for molecular property predictions with graph neural architecture search

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a prominent class of data-driven methods for molecular property prediction. However, a key limitation of typical GNN models is their inability to quantify uncertainties in the predictions. This capability is crucial for ensuring the trustworthy use and deployment of models in downstream tasks. To that end, we introduce AutoGNNUQ, an automated uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach for molecular property prediction. AutoGNNUQ leverages architecture search to generate an ensemble of high-performing GNNs, enabling the estimation of predictive uncertainties. Our approach employs variance decomposition to separate data (aleatoric) and model (epistemic) uncertainties, providing valuable insights for reducing them. In our computational experiments, we demonstrate that AutoGNNUQ outperforms existing UQ methods in terms of both prediction accuracy and UQ performance on multiple benchmark datasets, and generalizes well to out-of-distribution datasets. Additionally, we utilize t-SNE visualization to explore correlations between molecular features and uncertainty, offering insight for dataset improvement. AutoGNNUQ has broad applicability in domains such as drug discovery and materials science, where accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for decision-making.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗