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At least 109 records · Page 6

Bayesian Framework for Multi-Timescale State Estimation in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

To support the smart grid paradigm, there has been a significant increase in sensor deployments and metering infrastructure in distribution systems. However, the measurements provided by these sensors and metering devices are typically sampled at different rates and could suffer from losses during the aggregation process. It is crucial to effectively reconcile the time-series measurements for a reliable state estimation. While weighted least squares has been the traditional approach for state estimation, sparsity-based approaches like matrix completion have become popular due to their superior performance in low-observability conditions. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for both multi-timescale data aggregation and matrix completion based state estimation. Specifically, the multiscale time-series data aggregated from heterogenous sources are reconciled using a multitask Gaussian process that exploits the spatio-temporal correlations. Here, the resulting consistent timeseries alongwith the confidence bound on the imputations are fed into a Bayesian matrix completion method augmented with linearized power-flow constraints to accurately estimate the states in low-observability conditions. Results on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems reveal the superior performance of the proposed Bayesian framework. The computational complexity for the proposed Bayesian framework is also quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Recursive Gaussian Process over graphs for Integrating Multi-timescale Measurements in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

The transition to a smarter grid is empowered by enhanced sensor deployments and smart metering infrastructure in the distribution system. Measurements from these sensors and meters can be used for many applications, including distribution system state estimation (DSSE). However, these measurements are typically sampled at different rates and could be intermittent due to losses during the aggregation process. These multi timescale measurements should be reconciled in real-time to perform accurate grid monitoring. This paper tackles this problem by formulating a recursive multi-task Gaussian process (RGP-G) approach that sequentially aggregates sensor measurements. Specifically, we formulate a recursive multi-task GP with and without network connectivity information to reconcile the multi time-scale measurements in distribution systems. Here, the proposed framework is capable of aggregating the multi-time scale measurements batch-wise or in real-time. Following the aggregation of the multi time-scale measurements, the spatial states of the consistent time-series are estimated using matrix completion based DSSE approach. Simulation results on IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems illustrate the efficiency of the proposed methods from the standpoint of both multi time-scale data aggregation and DSSE.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Skyrme-Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov mass models on a 3D mesh: III. From atomic nuclei to neutron stars

Here, we present BSkG3, the latest entry in the Brussels-Skyrme-on-a-grid series of large-scale models of nuclear structure based on an energy density functional. Compared to its predecessors, the new model offers a more realistic description of nucleonic matter at the extreme densities relevant to neutron stars. This achievement is made possible by incorporating a constraint on the infinite nuclear matter properties at high densities in the parameter adjustment, ensuring in this way that the predictions of BSkG3 for the nuclear Equation of State are compatible with the observational evidence for heavy pulsars with M > 2M ⊙ . Instead of the usual phenomenological pairing terms, we also employ a more microscopically founded treatment of nucleon pairing, resulting in extrapolations to high densities that are in line with the predictions of advanced many-body methods and are hence more suited to the study of superfluidity in neutron stars. By adopting an extended form of the Skyrme functional, we are able to reconcile the description of matter at high densities and at saturation density: the new model further refines the description of atomic nuclei offered by its predecessors. A qualitative improvement is our inclusion of ground state reflection asymmetry, in addition to the spontaneous breaking of rotational, axial, and time-reversal symmetry. Quantitatively, the model offers lowered root-mean-square deviations on 2457 masses (0.631 MeV), 810 charge radii (0.0237 fm) and an unmatched accuracy with respect to 45 primary fission barriers of actinide nuclei (0.33 MeV). Reconciling the complexity of neutron stars with those of atomic nuclei establishes BSkG3 as a tool of choice for applications to nuclear structure, the nuclear equation of state and nuclear astrophysics in general.

Physics↗

A Conceptual Design for a Mobile Application to Support Infield Inventory Activities

This paper introduces an inventory assistant being developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) that we believe will empower users to perform inventory activities at nuclear facilities more accurately, reliably, and quickly. Inventory activities at nuclear facilities are often conducted using pen and paper, which can be time-consuming, tedious, and susceptible to reading or transcription errors. The proposed inventory assistant would replace the paper-based process used by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, nuclear facility operators, or verification monitors to complete an inventory of nuclear and non-nuclear items. In general, the inventory assistant would ingest an inventory list, distribute assigned items from the inventory list to one or more mobile devices, enable inventory teams to record their observations in the field, and then enable an inventory lead to integrate and reconcile the observations to produce a final report. The assistant consists of two software components—one for the inventory teams to record observations in the field (In-Field Observations App [IFOA]) and one for the inventory lead to reconcile the inventory list with observations (Distribution, Integration, and Reconciliation Application [DIRA]). This paper introduces the overall workflow of the inventory assistant and describes the IFOA user experience in more detail. To demonstrate the concept, the authors present a use case of IAEA inspectors conducting item counting and tag checking activities of UF6 cylinders at a gas centrifuge enrichment plant with a large number of UF6 cylinders (e.g., thousands). These activities can currently require 30–40 person-days of inspection to complete. Based on experiences during an exercised performed at the IAEA by the ORNL team in 2016, we believe an inventory assistant could allow the IAEA to complete item counting and tag checking using the global identifier or the operator’s barcode in 8–10 person-days of inspection. We would expect other users (e.g., facility operators or verification monitors) to also benefit from significant time savings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Creating Accurate Methane Emission Inventories through Data-Driven Airborne Survey Strategies: Methods and Results from the Haynesville, Anadarko, and Permian Basins

Significantly reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector can decrease the rate of climate change over the next two decades, buying critical time for a global energy transition. However, emissions inventories that can be used by oil and gas operators and environmental regulators to identify optimal methane emission mitigation strategies are either based on conservative emission factor methods, or are inconsistent between studies due to differences in sampling strategies or survey technologies. We developed a new approach for methane emissions survey design that yields representative basinwide methane emissions inventories by surveying a subset of total assets in a given oil and gas basin. We identify several sampling and analysis principles, including large sample sizes, balanced sampling across oil and gas production, careful survey area definition, and a unified protocol for analysis, to be vital to producing an unbiased estimate of basin-scale emissions that can be reconciled with future studies. We further present results from deploying this strategy in two oil and gas producing regions in the United States: the Haynesville Basin in Texas and Louisiana, and the Woodford Shale in the Anadarko Basin in Oklahoma. Aerial surveys were performed in 2023 using the Insight M LeakSurveyor™ technology. Preliminary results from methane emissions detected by Insight M indicate that aerially detected emissions above roughly 30 kg(CH4)/hr by themselves contribute a fractional loss rate of 1.13% of gross gas production across oil and gas operations in the Haynesville Basin, with aerially detected emissions equivalent to 2.67% of gross gas production in the Woodford Shale. We supplement these aerial estimates with modeled emissions that are below the LeakSurveyor’s survey sensitivity using a recently published inventory-based model of methane emissions, which we update for our survey areas. We then combine our aerial detections with modeled emissions to yield methane emission distributions and inventories that incorporate the full range of potential methane emissions from the smallest to the largest. These results can be used to identify the most effective methane mitigation strategies for our study areas, and can be reconciled with future methane emissions surveys that use different technologies.

Sherwin, Evan (ORCID:0000000321804297)↗

X-ray spectral constraints on the broad-line cloud geometry of NGC 4151

X-ray spectral data from NGC 4151 taken with the Einstein Solid-State Spectrometer (SSS) and the HEAO-1 A-2 experiment cannot be simply reconciled with absorption from a uniform column of cold gas. The SSS data can, however, be explained in terms of a clumped absorber with approximately 10% uncovered fraction and factor-of-two overabundances in Z equal to or greater than 14 elements relative to solar oxygen. It is shown that these and previously reported spectral and variability data can be quantitatively reconciled with absorption arising in the cold clouds responsible for the broad optical line emission if the cloud dimensions are small compared to the central source size. It is suggested that the lack of significant X-ray absorption observed from much higher luminosity Seyferts and quasars is a natural consequence of our picture for NGC 4151.

Holt, S. S.↗

The heating of the temperature minimum region in solar flares - A reassessment

The paper discusses and evaluates the suggestions made by Machado et al. (1978) on how to reconcile the observed temperature enhancements at temperature-minimum levels in solar flares with some theoretical heating mechanism. The objective is to gain deeper insight into the nature of the photospheric flare. The discussion focuses on the validity of the assumption of H(-) LTE at temperature-minimum levels, as well as on EUV irradiation and Joule heating by steady currents as heating mechanisms. It is found that, unless there are strong inhomogeneities associated with either heating mechanism, neither can reasonably be reconciled with observations. It is concluded that detailed high-resolution (both spatial and temporal) measurements are necessary to further the present understanding of the flare process at temperature-minimum levels.

Emslie, A. G.↗

X-ray spectral constraints on the broad-line cloud geometry of NGC 4151

X-ray spectral data from NGC 4151 taken with the Einstein Solid-State Spectrometer (SSS) and the HEAO 1 A-2 experiment cannot be simply reconciled with absorption from a uniform column of cold gas. The SSS data can, however, be explained in terms of a clumped absorber with approximately 10% uncovered fraction and factor-of-two overabundances in Z equal to or greater than 14 elements relative to solar oxygen. It is shown that these and previously reported spectral and variability data can be quantitatively reconciled with absorption arising in the cold clouds responsible for the broad optical line emission if the cloud dimensions are small compared to the central source size. It is suggested that the lack of significant X-ray absorption observed from much higher luminosity Seyferts and quasars is a natural consequence of the proposed picture for NGC 4151.

Holt, S. S.↗

DE-1 phase 3 extended mission data analysis of Dynamics Explorer retarding ion mass spectrometer flight data

Field-aligned motion of ionospheric ions at a low altitudes and different pitch angle distributions of ionospheric ions at high altitudes were studied. The objective is twofold: (1) to discover the degree to which observations made by Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE-1) and DE-2 agree when taken in the same ionospheric volume; (2) to understand the processes operating along a magnetic field tube connecting DE-1 and DE-2 that allow a reconciliation of the two data sets. A second investigation has two facets; to reconcile the observed occurrence of ionospheric ions at high altitudes with a point source injection in the ionosphere and subsequent E x B drift, and to reconcile the observed fluxes of ionospheric ions at high altitudes with the measured upward flux at low altitudes. An understanding of the effects of E x B drift molten on the dispersion of ionospheric ions is attained.

Source record↗

Observational and theoretical evidence for anisotropies in Saturn's magnetosphere

A study of plasma anisotropies in Saturn's magnetosphere was conducted using data from the Voyager 1 plasma science (PLS) instrument together with an improved Voyager plasma data analysis routine of Sands (1987) and Sands and McNutt (1988). First, the degree of anisotropy required to reconcile differences in the inbound and outbound Voyager 1 plasma observations was determined. The anisotropies derived from the PLS plasma data were then compared with those required to reconcile inbound-outbound differences in plasma flux shell content. It was found that better fits to the data could be obtained if temperature anisotropies were allowed and that the magnitude of the anisotropies was roughly consistent with those required to provide azimuthal symmetry in the plasma flux tube content.

Richardson, John D.↗

The CIV processes in the CRIT experiments

A qualitative analysis is conducted to reconcile the experimental data from critical ionization velocity (CIV) studies with CIV theories. The experimental data are reviewed demonstrating that: (1) the wave frequency is variable and low; (2) the wave polarization is almost isotropic; (3) electron energization is not easily reconciled with the observed wave spectrum; and (4) ambient electron density plays a role in determining CIV triggering conditions. Analytical treatment is given to the dispersion relation of the lower hybrid wave (LWH) instability driven by the streaming of an ion beam generated by the interaction of the neutral cloud with the ambient atmosphere. By incorporating the LWH instabilities of strong turbulence and finite-size effects into theoretical CIV relationships, the observations can be interpreted. The issues raised by the experimental data are understood within the context of a hypothesis of backward propagating nonlinearly collapsing wavepackets.

Papadopoulos, K.↗

The role of spatial attention in visual word processing

Subjects made lexical decisions on a target letter string presented above or below fixation. In Experiments 1 and 2, target location was cued 100 ms in advance of target onset. Responses were faster on validly than on invalidly cued trials. In Experiment 3, the target was sometimes accompanied by irrelevant stimuli on the other side of fixation; in such cases, responses were slowed (a spatial filtering effect). Both cuing and filtering effects on response time were additive with effects of word frequency and lexical status (words vs. nonwords). These findings are difficult to reconcile with claims that spatial attention is less involved in processing familiar words than in unfamiliar words and nonwords. The results can be reconciled with a late-selection locus of spatial attention only with difficulty, but are easily explained by early-selection models.

Mccann, Robert S.↗

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗

The Aggregate Representation of Terrestrial Land Covers Within Global Climate Models (GCM)

This project had four initial objectives: (1) to create a realistic coupled surface-atmosphere model to investigate the aggregate description of heterogeneous surfaces; (2) to develop a simple heuristic model of surface-atmosphere interactions; (3) using the above models, to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic cover and meteorological conditions; and (4) to reconcile biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) land covers with those that can be recognized from space; Our progress in meeting these objectives can be summarized as follows. Objective 1: The first objective was achieved in the first year of the project by coupling the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) with a proven two-dimensional model of the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting model, BATS-ABL, is described in detail in a Masters thesis and reported in a paper in the Journal of Hydrology Objective 2: The potential value of the heuristic model was re-evaluated early in the project and a decision was made to focus subsequent research around modeling studies with the BATS-ABL model. The value of using such coupled surface-atmosphere models in this research area was further confirmed by the success of the Tucson Aggregation Workshop. Objective 3: There was excellent progress in using the BATS-ABL model to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic covers. The foci of attention have been the site of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) in Kansas and one of the study sites of the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observational Study (ABRACOS) near the city of Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. These two sites were selected because of the ready availability of relevant field data to validate and initiate the BATS-ABL model. The results of these tests are given in a Masters thesis, and reported in two papers. Objective 4: Progress far exceeded original expectations not only in reconciling BATS land covers with those that can be recognized from space, but also in then applying remotely-sensed land cover data to map aggregate values of BATS parameters for heterogeneous covers and interpreting these parameters in terms of surface-atmosphere exchanges.

Shuttleworth, W. James↗

Effects of Buoyancy on Laminar and Turbulent Premixed V-Flame

Turbulent combustion occurs naturally in almost all combustion systems and involves complex dynamic coupling of chemical and fluid mechanical processes. It is considered as one of the most challenging combustion research problems today. Though buoyancy has little effect on power generating systems operating under high pressures (e.g., IC engines and turbines), flames in atmospheric burners and the operation of small to medium furnaces and boilers are profoundly affected by buoyancy. Changes in burner orientation impacts on their blow-off, flash-back and extinction limits, and their range of operation, burning rate, heat transfer, and emissions. Theoretically, buoyancy is often neglected in turbulent combustion models. Yet the modeling results are routinely compared with experiments of open laboratory flames that are obviously affected by buoyancy. This inconsistency is an obstacle to reconciling experiments and theories. Consequently, a fundamental understanding of the coupling between turbulent flames and buoyancy is significant to both turbulent combustion science and applications. The overall effect of buoyancy relates to the dynamic interaction between the flame and its surrounding, i.e., the so-called elliptical problem. The overall flame shape, its flowfield, stability, and mean and local burning rates are dictated by both upstream and downstream boundary conditions. In steady propagating premixed flames, buoyancy affects the products region downstream of the flame zone. These effects are manifested upstream through the mean and fluctuating pressure fields to influence flame stretch and flame wrinkling. Intuitively, the effects buoyancy should diminish with increasing flow momentum. This is the justification for excluding buoyancy in turbulent combustion models that treats high Reynolds number flows. The objectives of our experimental research program is to elucidate flame-buoyancy coupling processes in laminar and turbulent premixed flames, and to characterize microgravity (micro g) premixed flames. The results are used to derive appropriate scaling parameters for guiding the development of theoretical models to include the effects of buoyancy. Knowledge gain from the analysis will also contribute to further understanding of the elliptical nature of premixed flames. Our current emphasis is to examine the momentum limit above which the effects of buoyancy would become insignificant. This is accomplished by comparing the flowfields and the mean properties of normal gravity flames (+g), and reversed gravity flames (-g, up-side-down flames) at different flow velocities and turbulence intensities. Microgravity (micro g) flames experiments provide the key reference data to reconcile the differences between flames in +g and -g. As flame configuration has significant impact on premixed flames characteristics we have studied axi-symmetric conical flames and plane-symmetric rod-stabilized v-flames. The two configurations produce distinct features that dictates how the flames couple with buoyancy. In a conical flame, the hot products plume completely envelopes the flame cone and shields the flame from direct interaction with the ambient air. The plume originates at the burner rim and generates a divergent flowfield. In comparison, the products region of v-flames forms between the twin flame sheets and it is convergent towards the center-plane. Interaction with ambient air is limited to the two end regions of the stabilized rod and beyond the flame sheets.

Cheng, Robert K.↗

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Ares I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of nonconventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pre-test predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Area I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of non-conventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pretest predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

3D Simulations of the Early Martian Hydrological Cycle Mediated by a H2-CO2 Greenhouse

For decades, the scientific community has been trying to reconcile abundant evidence for fluvialactivity on Noachian and early Hesperian Mars with the faint young Sun and reasonableconstraints on ancient atmospheric pressure and composition. Recently, the investigation of H2-CO2 collision-induced absorption has opened up a new avenue to warm Noachian Mars. We usethe ROCKE-3D global climate model to simulate plausible states of the ancient Martian climatewith this absorptive warming and reasonable constraints on surface paleopressure. We find that1.5-2 bar CO2-dominated atmospheres with ≥3% H2 can produce global mean surfacetemperatures above freezing, while also providing sufficient warming to avoid surfaceatmospheric CO2 condensation at 0°-45° obliquity. Simulations conducted with both moderntopography and a paleotopography, before Tharsis formed, highlight the importance of Tharsis asa cold trap for water on the planet. Additionally, we find that low obliquity (modern and 0°) ismore conducive to rainfall over valley network locations than high (45°) obliquity. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Much evidence tells us that ancient Mars had liquid water on its surface. But reconciling thatwith the fainter young Sun and reasonable constraints on Mars' early atmosphere is challenging.We use a 3D global climate model with an atmosphere containing some amount of hydrogen (apossible greenhouse gas) to study Mars' early hydrological cycle and compare it to the geologicalevidence of surface liquid water billions of years ago. We find that hydrogen and carbon dioxidetogether in an atmosphere twice as thick as modern Earth can warm early Mars above thefreezing point of water and that a low axial tilt produces rainfall patterns that best match thegeologic evidence

Scott D Guzewich↗