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NASA NTRS1988

Hafnia-rich mixed oxide ceramics of the system HfO2-ZrO2-TiO2 for heaters and heat exchangers in electrothermal thrusters: The effects of titania on selected electrical and mechanical properties of Hafnia-rich mixed oxides in the system Hafnia-Zirconia-Titania, volume 1

A study of the effects of titania on selected properties of hafnia-rich mixed oxides in the system hafnia-zirconia-titania (HZT) was made in the region 5 to 20 mol percent titania. The studied properties included electrical conductivity, thermal expansion, and fracture strength and toughness. The effects of titania on the properties were studied for the reduced state as well as the oxidized state of the sintered mixed oxides. X-ray analysis showed that the materials were not always single phase. The oxidized compositions went from being monoclinic solid solutions at low titania additions to having three phases (two monoclinic and a titanate phase) at high additions of titania. The reduced compositions showed an increasing cubic phase presence mixed with the monoclinic phase as titania was added. The electrical conductivity increased with temperature at approximately 0.1 mhos/cm at 1700 C for all compositions. The thermal expansion coefficient decreased with increasing titania as did the monoclinic to tetragonal transformation temperature. The fracture strength of the oxidized bars tended to decrease with the addition of titania owing to the presence of the second phase titania. The fracture strength of the reduced bars exhibited a minimum corresponding to a two-phase region of monoclinic and cubic phases. When the second phases were suppressed, the titania tended to increase the fracture strength slightly in both the oxidized and reduced states. The fracture toughness followed similar trends.

Staszak, Paul Russell↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

Drought is a complex and multivariate phenomenon influenced by diverse physical and biological processes. Such complexity precludes simplistic explanations of cause and effect, making investigations of climate change and drought a challenging task. Here, we review important recent advances in our understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future. Paleoclimate studies of drought variability over the last two millennia have progressed considerably through the development of new reconstructions and analyses combining reconstructions with process-based models. This work has generated new evidence for tropical Pacific forcing of megadroughts in Southwest North America, provided additional constraints for interpreting climate change projections in poorly characterized regions like East Africa, and demonstrated the exceptional magnitude of many modern era droughts. Development of high resolution proxy networks has lagged in many regions (e.g., South America, Africa), however, and quantitative comparisons between the paleoclimate record, models, and observations remain challenging. Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change consistent with long-term warming projections have been identified for droughts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Western North America, and the Mediterranean. In other regions (e.g., Southwest North America, Australia, Africa), however, the degree to which climate change has affected recent droughts is more uncertain. While climate change-forced declines in precipitation have been detected for the Mediterranean, in most regions, the climate change signal has manifested through warmer temperatures that have increased evaporative losses and reduced snowfall and snowpack levels, amplifying deficits in soil moisture and runoff despite uncertain precipitation changes. Over the next century, projections indicate that warming will increase drought risk and severity across much of the subtropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, a consequence of regional precipitation declines and widespread warming. For many regions, however, the magnitude, robustness, and even direction of climate change-forced trends in drought depends on how drought is defined, with often large differences across indicators of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and vegetation health. Increasing confidence in climate change projections of drought and the associated impacts will likely depend on resolving uncertainties in processes that are currently poorly constrained (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions, terrestrial vegetation) and improved consideration of the role for human policies and management in ameliorating and adapting to changes in drought risk.

Detection and attribution↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analyzing Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in California Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have increased over the past decades and are linked to global temperature increases and climate change. These changes in climate have been suggested to have varying effects, and uncertain consequences, on agriculture, water supply, weather, sea-level rise, the economy, and energy. To counteract the trend of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, the state of California has passed the California Global Warming Act of 2006 (AB-32). This requires that by the year 2020, GHG (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) emissions will be reduced to 1990 levels. To quantify GHG fluxes, emission inventories are routinely compiled for the State of California (e.g., CH4 emissions from the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) Project). The major sources of CO2 and CH4 in the state of California are: transportation, electricity production, oil and gas extraction, cement plants, agriculture, landfills/waste, livestock, and wetlands. However, uncertainties remain in these emission inventories because many factors contributing to these processes are poorly quantified. To alleviate these uncertainties, a synergistic approach of applying air-borne measurements and chemical transport modeling (CTM) efforts to provide a method of quantifying local and regional GHG emissions will be performed during this study. Additionally, in order to further understand the temporal and spatial distributions of GHG fluxes in California and the impact these species have on regional climate, CTM simulations of daily variations and seasonality of total column CO2 and CH4 will be analyzed. To assess the magnitude and spatial variation of GHG emissions and to identify local “hot spots”, airborne measurements of CH4 and CO2 were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in January and February 2013 during the Discover-AQ-CA study. High mixing ratios of GHGs were observed in-flight with a high degree of spatial variability. To provide an additional method to quantify GHG emissions, and analyze AJAX measurement data, the GEOS-Chem CTM is used to simulate SFBA/SJV GHG measurements. A nested-grid version of GEOS-Chem will be applied and utilizes varying emission inventories and model parameterizations to simulate GHG fluxes/emissions. The model considers CO2 fluxes from fossil fuel use, biomass/biofuel burning, terrestrial and oceanic biosphere exchanges, shipping and aviation, and production from the oxidation of carbon monoxide, CH4, and non-methane volatile organic carbons. The major sources of CH4 simulated in GEOS-Chem are domesticated animals, rice fields, natural gas leakage, natural gas venting/flaring (oil production), coal mining, wetlands, and biomass burning. Preliminary results from the comparison between available observations (e.g., AJAX and CALGEM CH4 emission maps) and GEOS-Chem results will be presented, along with a discussion of CO2 and CH4 source apportionment and the use of the GEOS-Chem-adjoint to perform inverse GHG modeling.

Johnson, Matthew S.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Advanced aircraft engine materials trends

Recent activities of the Lewis Research Center are reviewed which are directed toward developing materials for rotating hot section components for aircraft gas turbines. Turbine blade materials activities are directed at increasing metal temperatures approximately 100 C compared to current directionally solidified alloys by use of oxide dispersion strengthening or tungsten alloy wire reinforcement of nickel or iron base superalloys. The application of thermal barrier coatings offers a promise of increasing gas temperatures an additional 100 C with current cooling technology. For turbine disk alloys, activities are directed toward reducing the cost of turbine disks by 50 percent through near net shape fabrication of prealloyed powders as well as towards improved performance. In addition, advanced alloy concepts and fabrication methods for dual alloy disks are being studied as having potential for improving the life of future high performance disks and reducing the amount of strategic materials required in these components.

Dreshfield, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Submarine Volcanic Eruptions and Potential Analogs for Venus

As part of an analysis program to better understand the diversity of volcanic processes on the terrestrial planets, an investigation of the volcanic landforms which exist on the Earth's ocean floor was initiated. In part, this analysis is focused toward gaining a better understanding of submarine volcanic landforms in their own right, but also it is hoped that these features may show similarities to volcanic landforms on Venus, due to the high ambient water (Earth) and atmospheric (Venus) pressures. A series of numerical modelling experiments was performed to investigate the relative importance of such attributes as water pressure and temperature on the eruption process, and to determine the rate of cooling and emplacement of lava flows in the submarine environment. Investigations to date show that the confining water pressure and the buoyancy effects of the surrounding water significantly affect the styles of volcanism on the ocean floor. In the case of Venusian volcanism, confining pressures will not be as great as that found at the ocean's abyssal plains, but nevertheless the general trend toward reducing magma vesiculation will hold true for Venus as well as the ocean floor. Furthermore, other analogs may also be found between submarine volcanism and Venusian activity.

Wilson, L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 510 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modelling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modelling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.

Atmosphere climate chemistry↗
NASA NTRS2008

Climate Change Implications to Vegetation Production in Alaska

Investigation of long-term meteorological satellite data revealed statistically significant vegetation response to climate drivers of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation with exclusion of fire disturbance in Alaska. Abiotic trends were correlated to satellite remote sensing observations of normalized difference vegetation index to understand biophysical processes that could impact ecosystem carbon storage. Warming resulted in disparate trajectories for vegetation growth due to precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation variation. Interior spruce forest low lands in late summer through winter had precipitation deficit which resulted in extensive fire disturbance and browning of undisturbed vegetation with reduced post-fire recovery while Northern slope moist alpine tundra had increased production due to warmer-wetter conditions during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Coupled investigation of Alaska s vegetation response to warming climate found spatially dynamic abiotic processes with vegetation browning not a result from increased fire disturbance.

Neigh, Christopher S.R.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Myocardial correlates of helium-cold induction and maintenance of hypothermia.

Hypothermia was induced in the golden hamster Mesocricetus auratus, using the helium-cold method. The first group of hamsters was sacrificed immediately after induction to rectal temperature 7 C, a second group was sacrificed after being maintained at a body temperature of 7 C for 18-24 hr, and a third group consisted of unexposed controls. The hearts were excised and the ventricles analyzed for hypoxic damage, glycogen, and catecholamines. In the short-term hypothermic animals, resting tension was increased while peak isometric tension, generated tension after 10 min of anoxic exposure, glycogen, and catecholamines were all reduced. All of the functional parameters recovered in the long-term hypothermic group, while glycogen and catecholamines showed a trend toward recovery. It is concluded that myocardial hypoxia develops during induction into hypothermia when using the helium-cold method. This effect is reversible and hypoxic damage does not increase as the hypothermic exposure is prolonged.

Anderson, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Are Stronger North-Atlantic Southwesterlies the Forcing to the Late-Winter Warming in Europe?

We examine a possible mechanism leading to late-winter warming and thus to an early spring in Europe. From the NCEP Reanalysis, we extract for the years 1948-1999 ocean-surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic, and air temperatures at the surface, T(sub s), and at the 500 mb level, T(sub 500), in late-winter and spring. T(sub s) is extracted at six European locations, all at 50.5 N, ranging in longitude from 1.9 E (northeastern France) to 26.2 E (Ukraine). To quantify the advection of maritime air into Europe, we evaluate for 3-pentad groups the Index I(sub na) of the southwesterlies at 45 N; 20 W: I(sub na) is the average wind speed at this point if the direction is from the quadrant 180-270 deg (when the direction is different, the contribution counts as zero). In late winter correlations C(sub it) between the Index I(sub na) and the temperature T(sub s) are substantial, up to the 0.6 level, in western Europe (but weaker correlations for Poland and Ukraine). C(sub it) drops sharply by mid-March, taking occasionally negative values subsequently. This drop in C(sub it) indicates that maritime air advection is no longer associated closely with the surface-air warming, the role of immolation becomes important, and thus the drop in C(sub it) marks the arrival of spring. Correlations C(sub i delta) between I(sub na) and our lapse-rate parameter delta, the difference between T(sub s) and T(sub 500), indicate that the flow of warm maritime-air from the North Atlantic into this 'corridor' at 50.5 N is predominantly at low tropospheric level. By computing the best linear fit to I(sub na) and T(sub s), the trends for the period 1948-1999 are evaluated. The trends are appreciable in the second half of February and the first half of March. Our 3-pentad analysis points to the interval from mid-February to mid-March as the end-of-winter period in which the southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic become stronger and the surface-air temperatures in Europe rise markedly, the lapse rate becomes steeper, and concurrently the longitudinal temperature gradient between the Somme (France) and the Oder (Germany/Poland border) is reduced by 0.8 C, that is, by 20% of its 1948 value. Our thesis, that the observed late-winter warming and the corollary advancement of spring in Europe resulted at least in part from stronger southwesterlies over the North Atlantic, merits further investigations.

Otterman, J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is compensated by larger increases in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean. Although the net energy loss from the ocean surface increases by 0.8 W (per square meters), this is less than the interannual variability, and the increase may not indicate a long-term trend. The seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is significantly enhanced. The downward surface heat flux increases in summer (maximum 2 of 19 W per square meters or 23% in June) while the upward heat flux increases in winter (maximum of 16 W per square meters or 28% in November). The increased downward flux in summer is due to a combination of increases in absorbed solar and thermal radiation and smaller losses of sensible and latent heat. The increased heat loss in winter is due to increased sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn are due to reduced sea-ice cover. On the other hand, the seasonal cycle of surface air temperature is damped, as there is a large increase in winter temperature but little change in summer.

Miller, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Surface Ozone Variability and Trends over the South African Highveld from 1990 to 2007

Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant formed from reactions between nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds in the presence of sunlight. In this work we examine effects of the climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and NOx variability on surface ozone from 1990 to 2007 over the South African Highveld, a heavily populated region in South Africa with numerous industrial facilities. Over summer and autumn (December-May) on the Highveld, El Niño, as signified by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with drier and warmer than normal conditions favoring ozone formation. Conversely, La Niña, or negative SST anomalies over the central Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with cloudier and above normal rainfall conditions, hindering ozone production. We use a generalized regression model to identify any linear dependence that the Highveld ozone, measured at five air quality monitoring stations, may have on ENSO and NOx. Our results indicate that four out of the five stations exhibit a statistically significant sensitivity to ENSO at some point over the December-May period where El Niño amplifies ozone formation and La Niña reduces ozone formation. Three out of the five stations reveal statistically significant sensitivity to NOx variability, primarily in winter and spring. Accounting for ENSO and NOx effects throughout the study period of 18 years, two stations exhibit statistically significant negative ozone trends in spring, one station displays a statistically significant positive trend in August, and two stations show no statistically significant change in surface ozone.

NOx↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Curious Year on Mars - Long-Term Thermal Trends for Mars Science Laboratory Rover's First Martian Year

By the time of this writing, Curiosity, the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Rover, has weathered four seasons in Gale Crater, just south of and approaching the foothills of the 5-km high Aeolis Mons, known as "Mount Sharp," at 4.59 deg south latitude. The mission design included a much broader latitude range of 30 deg north to 30 deg south constraining some of the Rover environmental requirements and operations. To date, Curiosity has relayed over 150 MB of thermal telemetry. Curiosity has relayed over 150 MB of thermal telemetry through four seasons. The trends and idiosyncrasies revealed through four seasons of telemetry from Mars are discussed. The better-characterized thermal environment allows for less conservatism in operational models and increases the amount of science data collection. Examples include: the elimination of overheating concerns for some cameras and the use of the previous sol's temperature telemetry along with the conservative soak temperature curve from the winter thermal model, to produce a custom heating prescription for the upcoming weeks thus increasing operation time and reducing heating times. This paper discusses the lessons learned for Rover operation as well as general idiosyncrasies discovered about the local environment-such as the effect of orientation on subsystem temperature variation, a regular morning and afternoon wind, ground and air microclimates with distinct temperature differences from other terrain, and how the Rover affects the local environment. This paper further documents and explains some of the interesting highs and lows of the temperature telemetry data as well as offers explanations for sudden temperature changes on board the Rover.

HRS↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Effects of a 1998 Observing System Change on MERRA-2-Based Ozone Profile Simulations

Model simulations of ozone (O3) driven by meteorological reanalyses are useful for filling observational gaps and interpreting observed O3 variability and trends. However, the transport circulation of reanalysis products is impacted by changes to the observing system (the data assimilated into the reanalyses). We examine the impacts of these changes on simulated O3 from two models, Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Chemistry Transport Model (GMI CTM) and Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Applications version 2 (MERRA‐2) GMI Replay (M2 GMI Replay) simulation, using observations from global ozonesondes (>50,000 profiles) and satellites from 1980 to 2016. Both models are constrained by meteorology from the NASA MERRA‐2 reanalysis, and both use versions of NASA's GMI chemical mechanism. We focus on an observing system change affecting simulated O3 after 1998, associated with the assimilation of temperature and humidity data from new microwave profiling satellites. A large post‐1998 O3 increase, mainly confined to 15–20‐km altitude, of ~10 Dobson units (DU) in midlatitudes occurs in the GMI CTM, worsening the bias compared to observations. In contrast, an increase in M2 GMI Replay simulation O3 of ~10 DU is observed only near −60° latitude, reducing the bias compared to observations. The GMI CTM O3 high biases display a Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO)‐like periodicity that result from excessive transport from the tropical stratosphere to the midlatitude lower stratosphere during the QBO westerly phase. We quantify O3 discontinuities caused by MERRA‐2 observing system changes and demonstrate how the MERRA‐2 Global Modeling Initiative Replay simulation dampens the effects of these changes and QBO‐driven artifacts on simulated lower stratospheric and total O3. We caution against using simulations driven by a reanalysis to derive multidecadal O3 trends, especially prior to 1998.

Replay↗
NASA NTRS2007

Reliability and Creep/Fatigue Analysis of a CMC Component

High temperature ceramic matrix composites (CMC) are being explored as viable candidate materials for hot section gas turbine components. These advanced composites can potentially lead to reduced weight and enable higher operating temperatures requiring less cooling; thus leading to increased engine efficiencies. There is a need for convenient design tools that can accommodate various loading conditions and material data with their associated uncertainties to estimate the minimum predicted life as well as the failure probabilities of a structural component. This paper presents a review of the life prediction and probabilistic analyses performed for a CMC turbine stator vane. A computer code, NASALife, is used to predict the life of a 2-D woven silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) turbine stator vane due to a mission cycle which induces low cycle fatigue and creep. The output from this program includes damage from creep loading, damage due to cyclic loading and the combined damage due to the given loading cycle. Results indicate that the trends predicted by NASALife are as expected for the loading conditions used for this study. In addition, a combination of woven composite micromechanics, finite element structural analysis and Fast Probability Integration (FPI) techniques has been used to evaluate the maximum stress and its probabilistic distribution in a CMC turbine stator vane. Input variables causing scatter are identified and ranked based upon their sensitivity magnitude. Results indicate that reducing the scatter in proportional limit strength of the vane material has the greatest effect in improving the overall reliability of the CMC vane.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Signatures of Chemical Evolution in Protostellar Nebulae

A decade ago observers began to take serious notice of the presence of crystalline silicate grains in the dust flowing away from some comets. While crystallinity had been seen in such objects previously, starting with the recognitions by Campins and Ryan (1990) that the 10 micron feature of Comet Halley resembled that of the mineral forsterite, most such observations were either ignored or dismissed as no path to explain such crystalline grains was available in the literature. When it was first suggested that an outward flow must be present to carry annealed silicate grains from the innermost regions of the Solar Nebula out to the regions where comets could form (Nuth, 1999; 2001) this suggestion was also dismissed because no such transport mechanism was known at the time. Since then not only have new models of nebular dynamics demonstrated the reality of long distance outward transport (Ciesla, 2007; 2008; 2009) but examination of older models (Boss, 2004) showed that such transport had been present but had gone unrecognized for many years. The most unassailable evidence for outward nebular transport came with the return of the Stardust samples from Comet Wild2, a Kuiper-belt comet that contained micron-scale grains of high temperature minerals resembling the Calcium-Aluminum Inclusions found in primitive meteorites (Zolensky et aI., 2006) that formed at T > 1400K. Now that outward transport in protostellar nebulae has been firmly established, a re-examination of its consequences for nebular gas is in order that takes into account both the factors that regulate both the outward flow as well as those that likely control the chemical composition of the gas. Laboratory studies of surface catalyzed reactions suggest that a trend toward more highly reduced carbon and nitrogen compounds in the gas phase should be correlated with a general increase in the crystallinity of the dust (Nuth et aI., 2000), but is such a trend actually observable? Unlike the Fischer-Tropsch or the Haber-Bosch reactions used in industry, the surface catalyzed reactions seen in our laboratory do not produce a simple product stream of methane or ammonia, respectively. Instead, such reactions produce a wide range of both aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons, as well as reduced nitrogen compounds such as ammonia, amines, amides and imides, as gas phase products together with a heavy, macromolecular, kerogen-like surface coating that remains on the grains. While CO and N2 will certainly be depleted by conversion into more complex and less volatile species via reaction on grain surfaces, it may be very difficult to monitor such changes from outside the system.

Nuth, Joseph A., III↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current Growing Periods and Irrigation

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology, growth, and evapotranspiration. However, future projections typically do not consider the effects of agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature up to 6 K, accounting for model uncertainty. We find that without adaptation, the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce grain yields and production. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to combat warming-induced yield reduction: (i) use of cultivars with adjusted phenology to regain the reference growing period duration and (ii) conversion of rainfed systems to irrigated ones in order to alleviate the negative temperature effects that are mediated by crop evapotranspiration. We find that cultivar adaptation can fully compensate global production losses up to 2 K of temperature increase, with larger potentials in continental and temperate regions. Irrigation could also compensate production losses, but its potential is highest in arid regions, where irrigation expansion would be constrained by water scarcity. Moreover, we discuss that irrigation is not a true adaptation measure but rather an intensification strategy, as it equally increases production under any temperature level. In the tropics, even when introducing both adapted cultivars and irrigation, crop production declines already at moderate warming, making adaptation particularly challenging in these areas.

Minoli, Sara↗
NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2000

Thermal Insulation Performance of Textile Structures for Spacesuit Applications at Martian Pressure and Temperature

Protection of astronauts from the extreme temperatures in the space environment has been provided in the past using multi-layer insulation in ultra-high vacuum environments of low earth orbit and the lunar surface. For planetary environments with residual gas atmospheres such as Mars with ambient pressures between 8 to 14 hPa (8 to 14 mbar), new protection techniques are required because of the dominating effect of the ambient gas on heat loss through the insulation. At Mars ambient pressure levels, the heat loss can be excessive at expected suit external temperatures of 172 K with state-of-the-art suit insulation, requiring an active heat source and its accompanying weight and volume penalties. Micro-fibers have been identified as one potential structure to reduce the heat losses, but existing fundamental data on fiber heat transfer at low pressure is lacking for integrated fabric structures. This baseline study presents insulation performance test data at different pressures and fabric loads for selected polyesters and aramids as a function of fiber density, fiber diameter, fabric density, and fabric construction. A set of trend data of thermal conductivity versus ambient pressure is presented for each fiber and fabric construction design to identify the design effects on thermal conductivity at various ambient pressures, and to select a fiber and fabric design for further development as a suit insulation. The trend data also shows the pressure level at which thermal conductivity approaches a minimum, below which no further improvement is possible for a given fiber and fabric design. The pressure levels and resulting thermal conductivities from the trend data can then be compared to the ambient pressure at a planetary surface, Mars for example, to determine if a particular fiber and fabric design has potential as a suit insulation.

Orndoff, Evelyne↗