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DOE OSTI2023

Sustainable Supply Chains by Integrating Life Cycle Modeling and Techno-Ecological Synergy with Application to Mitigation of Harmful Algal Blooms

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a challenge in water bodies across the planet and are often caused by fertilizer runoff from intensively farmed lands. This chapter describes a framework by which producers of biomass-based products could manage their supply chain to encourage mitigation of HABs and their life cycle environmental impacts, while also considering economic implications. The emphasis is on corn-based products such as ethanol in the region around Lake Erie in Northwest Ohio. It shows how wetland ecosystems could be designed synergistically with farming practices, transportation of the corn, and conversion and use of ethanol. The resulting techno-ecologically synergistic supply chains can be environmentally and economically superior to conventional techno-centric supply chains. The resulting designs can help ethanol manufacturers choose between farms, encourage farmers to adopt wetland ecosystems for intercepting and mitigating nutrient runoff, and determine the location of biorefineries for optimizing environmental and economic objectives.

air quality regulation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation

Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar Energy Zone Market Analysis for the Afton Region of New Mexico

This report examines the commercial viability of the Afton solar energy zone (SEZ) in southern New Mexico based on market conditions in 2022. The Bureau of Land Management may designate a SEZ on federal land to expedite environmental review and permitting for solar energy projects. The purpose of this analysis is to understand whether current market conditions support solar development in the SEZ.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2014

Satellite Data of Atmospheric Pollution for U.S. Air Quality Applications: Examples of Applications, Summary of Data End-user Resources, Answers to Faqs, and Common Mistakes to Avoid

Satellite data of atmospheric pollutants are becoming more widely used in the decision-making and environmental management activities of public, private sector and non-profit organizations. They are employed for estimating emissions, tracking pollutant plumes, supporting air quality forecasting activities, providing evidence for "exceptional event" declarations, monitoring regional long-term trends, and evaluating air quality model output. However, many air quality managers are not taking full advantage of the data for these applications nor has the full potential of satellite data for air quality applications been realized. A key barrier is the inherent difficulties associated with accessing, processing, and properly interpreting observational data. A degree of technical skill is required on the part of the data end-user, which is often problematic for air quality agencies with limited resources. Therefore, we 1) review the primary uses of satellite data for air quality applications, 2) provide some background information on satellite capabilities for measuring pollutants, 3) discuss the many resources available to the end-user for accessing, processing, and visualizing the data, and 4) provide answers to common questions in plain language.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2014

Satellite Data of Atmospheric Pollution for U.S. Air Quality Applications: Examples of Applications, Summary of Data End-User Resources, Answers to FAQs, and Common Mistakes to Avoid

Duncan, Bryan↗

NASA NTRS2011

Investigating the Nature of and Methods for Managing Metroplex Operations

A combination of traffic demand growth, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) technologies and operational concepts, and increased utilization of regional airports is expected to increase the occurrence and severity of coupling between operations at proximate airports. These metroplex phenomena constrain the efficiency and/or capacity of airport operations and, in NextGen, have the potential to reduce safety and prevent environmental benefits. Without understanding the nature of metroplexes and developing solutions that provide efficient coordination of operations between closely-spaced airports, the use of NextGen technologies and distribution of demand to regional airports may provide little increase in the overall metroplex capacity. However, the characteristics and control of metroplex operations have not received significant study. This project advanced the state of knowledge about metroplexes by completing three objectives: 1. developed a foundational understand of the nature of metroplexes; 2. provided a framework for discussing metroplexes; 3. suggested and studied an approach for optimally managing metroplexes that is consistent with other NextGen concepts

Atkins, Stephen↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analyzing historical snow trends in interior Alaska

Study region The Chena River watershed in Interior Alaska, USA Study focus This study examines 40 years (water years 1982–2021) of snowpack characteristics to consider its hydrological implications in the 5350 km² Chena River basin. Using observations and a fine-scale physics model, we analyzed trends of snow water equivalent (SWE), snow onset and disappearance, and snow cover duration (SCD). New hydrological insights for the region Results indicate a decline in SWE across the modeled domain, averaging a decrease of 3 mm per decade, with larger decreases (up to 10 mm per decade) at lower elevations. While domain-averaged SWE trends were not statistically significant, observed SCD showed statistically significant decreases: −5.2, −5.0, and −4.4 days per decade at Teuchet Creek, Fairbanks F.O., and Little Chena Ridge, respectively. Notably, observations at SNOTEL stations and modeling revealed no statistically significant change in domain-averaged Rain-on-Snow (ROS) events over the 40-year period, contrasting some regional future estimates of increased ROS frequency. Peak streamflow did not consistently correlate with peak SWE levels, suggesting that other environmental factors such as ROS events and rapid temperature increases (e.g., a 10°C spike observed in 1992) are key drivers of hydrological outcomes. These findings improve understanding of complex subarctic hydrological processes impacting permafrost and highlight the need for adaptive water resource management to mitigate multi-factor risks like flooding and wildfire, requiring proactive planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Great Lakes Water Resources II: A Google Earth Engine Tool to Automate Wetland Extent Mapping Using Optical and Radar Satellite Sensors in the Great Lakes Basin for Wetland Management and Monitoring

The Great Lakes Basin is one of the world’s largest freshwater ecosystems. The Basin harbors over 200,000 acres of wetlands that provide a variety of environmental, ecological, and recreational functions to over 30 million people in the region. Some of these functions include improving water quality, mitigating flood impacts, providing wildlife habitat, and housing recreational activities. However, due to anthropogenic activities, habitat conversion and degradation threaten to disrupt or destroy remaining wetland ecosystems. Maps of wetland distribution based on ground surveys are costly and labor-intensive, prohibiting timely evaluations of wetland loss and gain. The Great Lakes Water Resources II team at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory developed the Wetlands Extent Tool 2.0 (WET 2.0) in Google Earth Engine to automate mapping of wetland distribution in the Great Lakes Basin. The team partnered with the US Fish and Wildlife Service, Environmental Protection Agency, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Ducks Unlimited. WET 2.0 incorporates Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) data. Utilizing a Random Forest classifier, WET 2.0 is capable of automatically mapping wetland extent in the entire Great Lakes Basin, achieving a mean overall accuracy of 80.12% when tested in Michigan.Findings and maps produced by WET 2.0 will enable our partners to identify areas of ecosystem degradation and wetland destruction in order to enact environmental practices and policy initiatives to maintain environmental and economic health in the area.

Water Resources↗

DOE OSTI2019

Reduced and Earlier Snowmelt Runoff Impacts Traditional Irrigation Systems

We show seasonal runoff from montane uplands is crucial for plant growth in agricultural communities of northern New Mexico. These communities typically employ traditional irrigation systems, called acequias, which rely mainly upon spring snowmelt runoff for irrigation. The trend of the past few decades is an increase in temperature, reduced snow pack, and earlier runoff from snowmelt across much of the western United States. In order to predict the potential impacts of changes in future climate a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the surface water supplies in a montane upland watershed of a small irrigated community in northern New Mexico through the rest of the 21 st century. End-term simulations of representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 suggest that runoff during the months of April to August could be reduced by 22% and 56%, respectively. End-term simulations also displayed a shift in the beginning and peak of snowmelt runoff by up to one month earlier than current conditions. Results suggest that rising temperatures will drive reduced runoff in irrigation season and earlier snowmelt runoff in the dry season towards the end of the 21 st century. Modeled results suggest that climate change leads to runoff scheme shift and increased frequency of drought; due to the uncontemporaneous of irrigation season and runoff scheme, water shortage will increase. Potential impacts of climate change scenarios and mitigation strategies should be further investigated to ensure the resilience of traditional agricultural communities in New Mexico and similar regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

FEED Study of Carbon Capture Inc. DAC and CarbonCure Utilization Using United States Steel's Gary Works Waste Plant

The University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) is spearheading a front-end engineering design (FEED) study of a Direct Air Capture and Utilization System (DACUS) that can remove 5,000 tonnes/yr net CO2 from ambient air, utilizing it in the production of concrete. The designed system, if built, would be larger than any currently existing DAC collector. Such carbon negative technologies are critical to meeting the goals of the DOE’s program to accelerate climate-critical technology. DAC is a promising new technology for reducing the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere but is expensive, partly due to the energy required to capture and then release CO2 during the process. By integrating CarbonCapture Technologies Inc. DAC collector at United States Steel's Gary Works and utilizing steel plant's waste heat, energy, and location so energy & transportation costs can be minimized. CarbonCapture has developed an innovative DAC system using novel adsorbents to cost- effectively capture CO2. The captured, liquified CO2 will be trucked to ready-mix concrete plants across Illinois, Indiana, & Wisconsin, where CarbonCure will inject it into concrete during the mixing process. The carbon dioxide reacts with concrete, mineralizing into calcium carbonate (CaCO3), sequestering the CO2 into the concrete, and reducing the amount of cement, the manufacturing of which is among the major sources of CO2 emissions. This FEED study demonstrates a full CO2 value chain for DACUS from industrial facilities. It also provided an opportunity to assess the impact of this holistic approach on job creation, regional economic impact, and environmental justice.

Carbon management, ccus, carbon capture, utilizati↗

DOE OSTI2024

Managed aquifer recharge as a strategy to redistribute excess surface flow to baseflow in snowmelt hydrologic regimes

Water management in snowmelt hydrologic regimes, characterized by large annual fluctuations in stream flow driven by seasonal snow melt, faces the challenge of highly variable supply that often does not align with timing of demand. Climate change may exacerbate management challenges by significantly reducing snowpack or shifting snow melt earlier. Here, managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is evaluated as a potential strategy to reallocate excess early-season stream flow to time periods when less surface water is available. This strategy differs from traditional MAR, where the goal is to minimize loss to surface water. We assess how to site MAR operations such that groundwater recharge flows back to the surface water system in a lagged manor to benefit water management objectives, which we term “enhanced baseflow.” We use a regional groundwater model for the Treasure Valley aquifer located in southwestern Idaho, United States to demonstrate a generalizable approach using regional groundwater models as tools to identify favorable baseflow enhancement locations. Hypothetical MAR is simulated at 197 candidate locations, which are then evaluated for how effectively they meet potential management objectives. In addition to demonstrating the modeling and evaluation approach, we discuss lessons learned from applying a pre-existing regional groundwater model to MAR for enhanced baseflow and also describe important considerations, such as the physical and institutional availability of surface flows and specific management objectives, when assessing regional and site-specific suitability of MAR for enhanced baseflow as a potential management strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Great Lakes Water Resources II: A Google Earth Engine Tool to Automate Wetland Mapping Using Optical and Radar Satellite Sensors in the Great Lakes Basin for Wetland Management and Monitoring

The Great Lakes Basin is one of the world’s largest freshwater ecosystems. The Basin harbors over 200,000 acres of wetlands. These wetlands provide a variety of environmental, ecological, and recreational functions to over 30 million people in the region. Some of these functions include improving water quality, mitigating flood impacts, providing wildlife habitat, and housing recreational activities. However, due to anthropogenic activities, habitat conversion and degradation threaten to disrupt or destroy remaining wetland ecosystems. Maps of wetland distribution based on ground surveys are costly and labor-intensive, prohibiting timely evaluations of wetland loss and gain. The Great Lakes Water Resources II team at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory developed the Wetlands Extent Tool 2.0 (WET 2.0) in Google Earth Engine to automate mapping of wetland distribution in the Great Lakes Basin. The team partnered with the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and Ducks Unlimited (DU). WET 2.0 incorporates Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) satellite data. WET 2.0 is trained to classify anywhere in the Great Lakes Basin. Utilizing a Random Forest classifier, WET 2.0 is capable of automatically mapping wetland extent in the entire Great Lakes Basin, achieving a mean overall accuracy of 80.12% when tested in Michigan. Findings and maps produced in WET 2.0 will enable our partners to identify areas of ecosystem degradation and wetland destruction in order to enact environmental practices and policy initiatives to maintain environmental and economic health in the area.

Water Resources↗

DOE OSTI2022

Approximating a linear multiplicative objective in watershed management optimization

Implementing management practices in a cost-efficient manner is critical for regional efforts to reduce the amount of pollutants entering the Chesapeake Bay. We study the problem of selecting a subset of practices that minimizes pollutant load—subject to budgetary and environmental constraints—as simulated in a widely used regulatory watershed model. Mimicking the computation of pollutant load in the regulatory model, we formulate this problem as a continuous optimization model with a linear multiplicative objective function and linear constraints. To lay the groundwork for incorporating additional stakeholder requirements in the future, especially those that would require integer variables, we present and study a continuous linear optimization model that approximates the nonlinear model. The linear model, which requires an exponential number of variables, arises naturally as an alternative model for the same underlying physical process. We examine the theoretical behavior of these optimization models and investigate restrictions of the linear model to handle its large number of variables. Through extensive computational tests on real and randomly generated instances, we demonstrate that the linear model and its restrictions provide optimal solutions close to those of the nonlinear model in practice, despite poor approximation properties in the worst case. We conclude that the linear model—together with our approach to handling its large number of variables—provides a viable framework from which to extend the optimization model to better meet the needs of the Chesapeake Bay watershed management stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solar Energy Zone Market Analysis for the San Luis Valley Region of Colorado

This report examines the commercial viability of solar energy zones (SEZs) in the San Luis Valley of Colorado ("the Valley") based on market conditions in 2022. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) may designate a SEZ on federal land to expedite environmental review and permitting for solar energy projects. The purpose of this analysis is to understand whether current market conditions support the need for SEZs in the Valley.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using taxa-based approaches to delineate stream macroinvertebrate assemblage responses to stressor gradients in modified alluvial agroecosystems

Alluvial plain landscapes are some of the most agriculturally productive lands in the world but often have modified stream ecosystems due to cultivation history. This context requires consideration when establishing water quality management goals. We analyzed state water quality databases to demonstrate that Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion streams have elevated specific conductivity (SC) and nutrients and lower macroinvertebrate local and regional taxa pools compared to streams in other ecoregions, potentially reducing the efficacy of traditional biomonitoring approaches within the region. To overcome these challenges, we used threshold indicator taxa analysis (TITAN) to compare macroinvertebrate assemblage responses to water quality gradients among ecoregions in Mississippi. We identified individual taxa and assemblage-level responses to increasing water quality degradation in MAP streams. Observed responses occurred at higher concentrations for SC, total organic carbon (TOC) and total phosphorus (TP), but not total nitrogen (TN) relative to other ecoregions. These responses appeared to be driven by a large proportion of indicator taxa considered tolerant or unresponsive in other ecoregions, responding negatively to increasing water quality stressors in MAP streams. Our observed assemblage-level stressor responses to WQ gradients in MAP streams demonstrate shifting tolerance in highly altered ecosystems may require adjustments to recovery expectations but also provide useful measures for monitoring improvements in regional water quality. For example, our observed macroinvertebrate assemblage response to increasing TP identified a management goal similar to guidance based on distributional analysis of water quality data within the MAP ecoregion (0.11 vs 0.128 mg L –1 ) and thus provide some biological basis for previously identified nutrient goals for the region. Our approach can guide and monitor success of nutrient reduction efforts in MAP watersheds and other alluvial plain agroecosystems where reference conditions do not exist, and local and regional taxa pools are less diverse and may not support full recovery of ecological assemblages. While our results are promising, they should also be compared with more sensitive and less habitat-limited biological assemblages (e.g., algae or bacteria) to better understand complex ecological responses to best management practices designed to increase sustainability of high production agricultural regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA NTRS2019

Utilizing Satellite Based Observations and Physical Hydrological Modeling for Freshwater Ecosystem Health in the Lower Mekong River Basin

Freshwater availability is necessary to promote economic growth through agriculture, fisheries, transport, environmental health, and social equity.The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Conservation International (CI) are partnering to use remote sensing Earth observations to improve regional efforts that assess natural resources for conservation and sustainable management. (Vollmer et al.,2018) have presented the social-ecological framework named the Freshwater Health Index (FHI), which takes account of the interplay between governance, stakeholders, freshwater ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.In this work, we develop decision support and making tools for natural resources conservation in the Lower Mekong by leveraging the FHI framework, multiple data products, and hydrological modeling capabilities (Mohammed et al., 2018). Modeling capabilities enable the integration of satellite-based daily gridded precipitation, air temperature, digital elevation model, soil characteristics, and land cover and land use information to simulate water flux framework.

Mohammed, Ibrahim N.↗