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At least 109 records · Page 6

Near Term Reliability and Resilience: Revisiting Resilience Metrics for the Electric Grid

This report presents the metrics employed in the Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) project to study the inter-dependencies between electric and natural gas infrastructures, particularly under challenging conditions. These metrics were developed and applied to evaluate the reliability and resilience of the electric grid and natural gas systems in near-term scenarios (within the next 10 years) involving extreme weather events and major supply disruptions. The report defines the metrics, explains how they are calculated, and describes the process by which they are used to evaluate reliability and resilience across simulated scenarios. It also demonstrates how the resilience metrics integrate with other project activities and summarizes the software tools deployed to calculate and visualize the results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) Device Cybersecurity Characterization Process and Profile

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) recognizes that threats in the cyberspace domain continue to grow, which requires CWMD devices and supporting systems to be both cybersecure (ability to protect or defend from cyber-attacks) and resilient (ability to maintain required capability in the face of adversity) to cyber threats. The CWMD cybersecurity characterization approach in this document supports existing cyber resilience activities within the Acquisition Lifecycle Framework. Similarly, this process supports existing Department of Homeland Security Cyber Resilience Test and Evaluation activities, which consist of iterative processes, starting at the initiation of system acquisition and continuing throughout the entire device and system life cycle. Cyber resilience is the ability of an information system to continue to operate while under attack, even if in a degraded or debilitated state, and to rapidly recover operational capabilities for essential functions after a successful attack. The goal of the security characterization task for CWMD is to support the development of a CBRN device-dependent profile that aligns with device network capabilities and maps to recommended security controls to create a characterization security profile impact levels. The impact levels for CWMD devices should be characterized as Low (L), Moderate (M), High (H) to align with the low, moderate, high control baselines. To estimate the impact levels, the device’s security-related attributes are translated into the security objectives: Confidentiality (C), Integrity (I), and Availability (A), known as the CIA triad. The potential impact for each device can be L, M, H, for devices that connect and transmit different types of data and may have different impact levels. National Institute of Standards and Technology Federal Information Processing Standards Publication 199 states, “the potential impact values assigned to the respective security objectives shall be the highest value from among those security categories that have been determined for each type of information resident on the information system.” As CWMD is determining the cybersecurity impact levels of CBRN devices based on network connections and data transfers, the impact levels are aligned with the associated attributes of network connections and communications. For example, if the device system is connected to a wireless network and transmits different data types based on the confidentiality of the data, the highest impact value for each security objective should represent the device’s CIA impact level. This document is intended to be used by test managers, test team, and program managers.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) Device Cybersecurity Characterization Process and Profile

Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) recognizes that threats in the cyberspace domain continue to grow, which requires CWMD devices and supporting systems to be both cybersecure (ability to protect or defend from cyber-attacks) and resilient (ability to maintain required capability in the face of adversity) to cyber threats. The CWMD cybersecurity characterization approach in this document supports existing cyber resilience activities within the Acquisition Lifecycle Framework. Similarly, this process supports existing Department of Homeland Security Cyber Resilience Test and Evaluation activities, which consist of iterative processes, starting at the initiation of system acquisition and continuing throughout the entire device and system life cycle. Cyber resilience is the ability of an information system to continue to operate while under attack, even if in a degraded or debilitated state,1 and to rapidly recover operational capabilities for essential functions after a successful attack.2 The goal of the security characterization task for CWMD is to support the development of a CBRN device-dependent profile that aligns with device network capabilities and maps to recommended security controls to create a characterization security profile impact levels. The impact levels for CWMD devices should be characterized as Low (L), Moderate (M), High (H) to align with the low, moderate, high control baselines. To estimate the impact levels, the device’s security-related attributes are translated into the security objectives: Confidentiality (C), Integrity (I), and Availability (A), known as the CIA triad. The potential impact for each device can be L, M, H, for devices that connect and transmit different types of data and may have different impact levels. National Institute of Standards and Technology Federal Information Processing Standards Publication 199 states, “the potential impact values assigned to the respective security objectives shall be the highest value from among those security categories that have been determined for each type of information resident on the information system.”3 As CWMD is determining the cybersecurity impact levels of CBRN devices based on network connections and data transfers, the impact levels are aligned with the associated attributes of network connections and communications. For example, if the device system is connected to a wireless network and transmits different data types based on the confidentiality of the data, the highest impact value for each security objective should represent the device’s CIA impact level. This document is intended to be used by test managers, test team, and program managers.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A Risk-Driven Probabilistic Approach to Quantify Resilience in Power Distribution Systems

It is of growing concern to ensure resilience in power distribution systems to extreme weather events. However, there are no clear methodologies or metrics available for resilience assessment that allows system planners to assess the impact of appropriate planning measures and new operational procedures for resilience enhancement. In this paper, we propose a resilience metric using parameters that define system attributes and performance. To represent extreme events (tail probability), the conditional value-at-risk of each of the parameters are combined using Choquet Integral to evaluate the overall resilience. The effectiveness of the proposed resilience metric is studied within the simulation-based framework under extreme weather scenarios with the help of a modified IEEE 123-bus system. With the proposed framework, system operators will have additional flexibility to prioritize one investment over the others to enhance the resilience of the grid.

Poudyal, Abodh↗

MLEC-Sim: A Simulator for Evaluating Multi-Level Erasure Coding

We present MLEC-Sim, a sophisticated simulator for Multi-Level Erasure Coding (MLEC), developed in approximately 13 KLOC. The simulator is engineered to analyze the impact of various system configurations and erasure coding policies on system durability and network overhead. It supports a comprehensive range of parameters including disk capacity, disk I/O bandwidth, failure rates, network bandwidth, and system scale, accommodating various erasure coding approaches such as Single-Level Erasure Coding (SLEC), Multi-Level Erasure Coding (MLEC), and Local Reconstruction Codes (LRC). MLEC-Sim provides support for multiple chunk placement policies, including clustered parity and declustered parity, and encompasses a variety of repair methods like Repair-ALL, Repair-FCO, Repair-HYB, and Repair-MIN. It is capable of simulating disk failures through a variety of means, including distribution-based or trace-based mechanisms, and can handle complex multi-level (de)clustered placements and repair processes. A key feature of MLEC-Sim is its adoption of the splitting simulation method for evaluating system durabilities at extremely high levels, which are challenging to assess with traditional simulation approaches. This feature allows for a detailed evaluation of system resilience under a range of conditions, aiding in the selection of appropriate erasure coding solutions for enhancing system durability. MLEC-Sim contributes to the field of data storage and reliability by providing a tool for the detailed evaluation of the durability and efficiency of erasure coding configurations, intended for use by researchers and practitioners in the design and optimization of storage systems.

Wang, Meng↗

Application Guide for the Cyber-Resilient Design Framework for Hybrid Systems

As the energy landscape evolves, hybrid power plants—integrating multiple renewable energy sources (e.g., solar, wind, and battery storage) with the bulk power electric system—play a crucial role in meeting growing energy demands. However, with a hybrid power plant’s increased number of components, complex network connectivity and digitization of controls, these systems face growing cybersecurity risks. To help mitigate these risks, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) presents this application guide specifically designed for operators and systems engineers to evaluate the cybersecurity resilience of their hybrid power plant’s design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Design and evaluation of a cyber‐physical testbed for improving attack resilience of power systems

Abstract A power system is a complex cyber‐physical system whose security is critical to its function. A major challenge is to model, analyse and visualise the communication backbone of the power systems concerning cyber threats. To achieve this, the design and evaluation of a cyber‐physical power system (CPPS) testbed called Resilient Energy Systems Lab (RESLab) are presented to capture realistic cyber, physical, and protection system features. RESLab is architected to be a fundamental platform for studying and improving the resilience of complex CPPS to cyber threats. The cyber network is emulated using Common Open Research Emulator (CORE), which acts as a gateway for the physical and protection devices to communicate. The physical grid is simulated in the dynamic time frame using Power World Dynamic Studio (PWDS). The protection components are modelled with both PWDS and physical devices including the SEL Real‐Time Automation Controller (RTAC). Distributed Network Protocol 3 (DNP3) is used to monitor and control the grid. Then, the design is exemplified and the tools are validated. This work presents four case studies on cyberattack and defence using RESLab, where we demonstrate false data and command injection using Man‐in‐the‐Middle and Denial of Service attacks and validate them on a large‐scale synthetic electric grid.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

Attaining freshwater and estuarine-water soil saturation in an ecosystem-scale coastal flooding experiment

Abstract Coastal upland forests are facing widespread mortality as sea-level rise accelerates and precipitation and storm regimes change. The loss of coastal forests has significant implications for the coastal carbon cycle; yet, predicting mortality likelihood is difficult due to our limited understanding of disturbance impacts on coastal forests. The manipulative, ecosystem-scale Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m 2 ), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments. Transient saturation (5 h) of the entire soil rooting zone (0–30 cm) across a 2000 m 2 coastal forest was attained by delivering 300 m 3 of water through a spatially distributed irrigation network at a rate just above the soil infiltration rate. Our water delivery approach also elevated the water table (typically ~ 2 m belowground) and achieved extensive, low-level inundation (~ 8 cm standing water). A TEMPEST simulation approximated a 15-cm rainfall event and based on historic records, was of comparable intensity to a 10-year storm for the area. This characterization was supported by showing that Hurricane Ida’s (~ 5 cm rainfall) hydrologic impacts were shorter (40% lower duration) and less expansive (80% less coverage) than those generated through experimental manipulation. Future work will apply TEMPEST treatments to evaluate coastal forest resilience to changing hydrologic disturbance regimes and identify conditions that initiate ecosystem state transitions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methodology to Calibrate Fragility Curves Using Limited Real-World Data

With increasing human dependence on electricity and increasing energy demand, electrical infrastructure has emerged to be one of the most critical services. This is one of the main reasons for making the power grid more resilient to extreme events during which uninterrupted power supply is crucial in keeping the consequences of the extreme event limited. The first step towards making the overall power grid more resilient is to evaluate the probabilities of failure for all assets at risk from the excitation caused by extreme events. Thus, this paper presents the methodology to calibrate fragility curves. The strength of the proposed approach is its ability to calibrate the fragility curves utilizing limited data, which is the most common constraint in carrying out such analyses. This paper describes the calibration of transmission tower fragility curves for Puerto Rico utilizing only damage reports for hurricane Maria. That, combined with Puerto Rico's wind modeling & geographic information system, this study also calibrates fragility curves for transmission towers made with four different construction materials.

Bereta dos Reis, Fernando↗

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions↗

Integration of equitable resilience metrics into climate-informed electric utility planning processes: phase one

Working together, Sandia National Laboratories, Southern California Edison (SCE) - an Investor-Owned Utility (IOU) - and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) are studying how electric utilities can use equity and resilience metrics to help inform the prioritization and sequencing of resilience-driven infrastructure investments. To this end, this project evaluated “Social Burden,” an equitable resilience metric which measures the potential impact of disruptions in access to non-electric critical services on people and estimates community resilience to these disruptions. The Social Burden was expanded to incorporate SCE’s existing equity metric and applied to evaluate the potential impacts from a range of climate-informed hypothetical outage scenarios developed under SCE’s 2022 Climate Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment. One baseline (“blue-sky”) state and eight different outage scenarios were evaluated to measure the potential impacts of the outages on non-electric infrastructure, critical services, and people. Key findings include: 1) the Social Burden framework is flexible enough to adapt to and build upon existing utility equity and/or resilience metrics, 2) Social Burden results highlight the high degree of non-electric service redundancy within the SCE service area with most (6/8) hypothetical outage scenarios predicted to increase people’s Social Burden by less than 10%; however, 3) access to critical services and people’s ability to obtain them is unequal and spatially clustered, meaning that there are some hypothetical outage scenarios (2/8) that will exert a higher toll on communities directly experiencing the outage as well as some nearby communities with pre-existing vulnerabilities. The report concludes with recommendations for potential use cases of the expanded Social Burden metric and identifies priority follow-on work. Potential use cases may include incorporating equity into IOU’s prioritization of climate resilience investments. Additionally, Social Burden analysis may provide additional data and insights to augment grid planning, potentially by identifying additional needs and/or prioritizing previously identified needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A building performance-based approach to determining energy resilience for grocery stores in the event of a power outage

Evaluating progress toward a built environment that is best equipped to serve communities during a regional power outage will require metrics that capture the energy resilience of the unique buildings and businesses most crucial to the well-being of those nearby. We focused on grocery stores as key buildings for which access, and thus energy resilience, is critical during a disaster when power is unavailable. We evaluated the energy resilience of these buildings by offering and testing building-scale metrics that assess business continuity potential during a power outage. Metrics proposed in this study are calculated based on the unique power loads characteristic to grocery stores, primarily refrigeration and maintaining safe indoor environmental conditions. Building simulations based on varying levels of backup power were carried out against occupant safety and comfort parameters to apply these metrics, with additional criteria imposed on grocery stores to capture the inventory and sales loss from food spoilage resulting from a lack of refrigeration power. Findings from this study demonstrate the feasibility of our proposed metrics and methodology to serve as a low-data burden means for stakeholders to evaluate the energy resilience of grocery stores, with greater implications in helping to understand the impact on community-scale energy resilience.

Siegel, Lino Sanchez↗

PROTEUS: Machine Learning Driven Resilience for Extreme-scale Systems

The objective of this project is to design, develop, and evaluate scalable software to enhance resilience, data checkpointing, program restart, and analysis. The proposed tasks are to 1) develop scalable machine learning techniques to learn temporal change patterns in a scalable and in-situ manner, and to minimize data movement and maximize learning locally closest to data; 2) design a concise data representation and indexing mechanism to capture the distribution of changes in data that can guarantee point-wise user-defined tolerable errors while reducing the data storage requirements by an order of magnitude or more; 3) develop data reduction techniques as library modules; 4) exploit local SSD for minimizing data movement in storage hierarchy; 5) develop anomaly detection algorithms that can predict corruptions based on learning of emerging patterns; 6) develop software libraries to be incorporated within widely used data formats and APIs; and 7) evaluate the proposed software using DOE scientific applications. The outcomes of the proposed work are to satisfy many synergistic data reduction and resilience requirements for large-scale data intensive applications executed on extreme-scale computing systems. The developed mechanism for error-bound data approximation is directly applicable to existing scientific applications. Through machine learning from historical events and change distribution, this work will enable anomaly detection for DOE computer facility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accelerating Resilience of the Community through Holistic Engagement and use of Renewables (ARCHER) Planning Framework

The primary objective of the Accelerating Resilience of the Community through Holistic Engagement and Use of Renewables (ARCHER) initiative was to identify and incorporate the unique variations in energy burden, social vulnerability, living conditions, and access to essential services that differ across communities. By accounting for these localized factors—down to the neighborhood level—the project supports more targeted and effective investments in community resilience. The framework seeks to establish practical planning guidance, methods, and performance measures for community energy resilience, integrate community-level and electric utility system resilience planning, and assess its effectiveness through comparison with conventional and operational planning approaches. A key component of the project was its data exchange platform, which is used to evaluate and demonstrate the tools, methodologies, and planning approaches developed through ARCHER. This open-source platform enables developers and vendors of distribution and outage management systems to build upon the research by incorporating its concepts into their own tools and workflows. This capability is enabled by the transparent availability of data, functional requirements, and the underlying information model. The project yielded several important insights. First, meaningful engagement with communities is essential to achieving comprehensive resilience outcomes. Second, resilience planning is most effective when electric grid considerations and broader community needs are addressed in a coordinated manner. Third, the use of platforms that allow for real-time input from communities can enhance utility responsiveness during restoration activities. Fourth, a structured and systematic planning approach can successfully translate ARCHER concepts into practice. Fifth, the development of an integrated metric that reflects both grid performance and community impacts provides a more holistic basis for evaluating resilience. Finally, incorporating community engagement and equity considerations into grid operations is critical, particularly during severe weather events that result in extended outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Control of Behind-the-Meter Resources for Enhancing the Resilience of Residential Buildings

There is increased concern about the impacts of frequent power outages, caused primarily by extreme weather conditions. With increasing behind-the-meter resources such as solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage, and controllable loads, these resources - if properly coordinated - can meet critical loads even during an outage. Resilience building controls can coordinate and operate these resources to enhance the resiliency of buildings supporting critical loads for longer duration. In this paper, we present two resilience building controls: rule-based control and model predictive control (MPC). We simulated various scenarios considering different locations, seasons, outage types, and times of outages to evaluate the performance of resilience controls. The results show that MPC-based control can enhance resilience up to 65% compared to rule-based control. Similarly, PV self-consumption and occupant thermal comfort both increase during outages with MPC-based control.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent Based Modelling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain

The food supply chain has experienced major disruptions from both demand and supply sides during the COVID-19 pandemic. While some consequences such as food waste are directly caused by the disruption due to supply chain inefficiency, others are indirectly caused by a change in consumer’s preferences. As a result, evaluating food supply chain resilience is a difficult task. With an attempt to understand impacts of demand on the food supply chain, we developed an agent-based model based on the case of Idaho’s potato supply chain. Results showed that not only the magnitude but also the timing of the demand shock will have different impacts on various stakeholders of the supply chain. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, the model helps explain why food waste and shortages may occur with dramatic shifts in consumer demand. Second, this paper provides a new angle on evaluating the various mitigation strategies and policy responses to disruptions beyond COVID-19.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Resilient Communities, Maryland (RCM): A Framework for Community-Driven Energy Resilience (Final Technical Report)

The Resilient Communities, Maryland (RCM) project integrates community-based participatory research (CBPR) approaches into energy resilience planning. The combination of qualitative, community-driven data and quantitative utility data improves both the effectiveness and efficiency of assessing the impacts of disruptions to energy infrastructure. Centered around a metric of critical services access, RCM created a repeatable framework for evaluating and modeling energy resilience in communities and promoted community engagement, resulting in more equitable stakeholder participation and improved decision-making processes for siting infrastructure to improve community energy resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗