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NASA NTRS1992

Aerostructural safety factor criteria

The present modification of the conventional safety factor method for aircraft structures evaluation involves the expression of deterministic safety factors in probabilistic tolerance limit ratios; these are found to involve a total of three factors that control the interference of applied and resistive stress distributions. The deterministic expression is extended so that it may furnish a 'relative ultimate safety' index that encompasses all three distribution factors. Operational reliability is developed on the basis of the applied and the yield stress distribution interferences. Industry standards are suggested to be derivable from factor selections that are based on the consequences of failure.

Verderaime, V.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Life Cycle Systems Engineering Approach to NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd- generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1 -in- 10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. Given a candidate architecture that possesses credible physical processes and realistic technology assumptions, the next set of analyses address the system's functionality across the spread of operational scenarios characterized by the design reference missions. The safety/reliability and cost/economics associated with operating the system will also be modeled and analyzed to answer the questions "How safe is it?" and "How much will it cost to acquire and operate?" The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗

NASA NTRS2002

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗

NASA NTRS2002

Systems Engineering Approach to Technology Integration for NASA's 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle

The overall goal of the 2nd Generation RLV Program is to substantially reduce technical and business risks associated with developing a new class of reusable launch vehicles. NASA's specific goals are to improve the safety of a 2nd-generation system by 2 orders of magnitude - equivalent to a crew risk of 1-in-10,000 missions - and decrease the cost tenfold, to approximately $1,000 per pound of payload launched. Architecture definition is being conducted in parallel with the maturating of key technologies specifically identified to improve safety and reliability, while reducing operational costs. An architecture broadly includes an Earth-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle, on-orbit transfer vehicles and upper stages, mission planning, ground and flight operations, and support infrastructure, both on the ground and in orbit. The systems engineering approach ensures that the technologies developed - such as lightweight structures, long-life rocket engines, reliable crew escape, and robust thermal protection systems - will synergistically integrate into the optimum vehicle. To best direct technology development decisions, analytical models are employed to accurately predict the benefits of each technology toward potential space transportation architectures as well as the risks associated with each technology. Rigorous systems analysis provides the foundation for assessing progress toward safety and cost goals. The systems engineering review process factors in comprehensive budget estimates, detailed project schedules, and business and performance plans, against the goals of safety, reliability, and cost, in addition to overall technical feasibility. This approach forms the basis for investment decisions in the 2nd Generation RLV Program's risk-reduction activities. Through this process, NASA will continually refine its specialized needs and identify where Defense and commercial requirements overlap those of civil missions.

Thomas, Dale↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Framework for Probabilistic Evaluation of Interval Management Tolerance in the Terminal Radar Control Area

Projections of future traffic in the national airspace show that most of the hub airports and their attendant airspace will need to undergo significant redevelopment and redesign in order to accommodate any significant increase in traffic volume. Even though closely spaced parallel approaches increase throughput into a given airport, controller workload in oversubscribed metroplexes is further taxed by these approaches that require stringent monitoring in a saturated environment. The interval management (IM) concept in the TRACON area is designed to shift some of the operational burden from the control tower to the flight deck, placing the flight crew in charge of implementing the required speed changes to maintain a relative spacing interval. The interval management tolerance is a measure of the allowable deviation from the desired spacing interval for the IM aircraft (and its target aircraft). For this complex task, Formal Methods can help to ensure better design and system implementation. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework to quantify the uncertainty and performance associated with the major components of the IM tolerance. The analytical basis for this framework may be used to formalize both correctness and probabilistic system safety claims in a modular fashion at the algorithmic level in a way compatible with several Formal Methods tools.

Hercencia-Zapana, Heber↗

NASA NTRS1986

A feasibility assessment of nuclear reactor power system concepts for the NASA Growth Space Station

A preliminary feasibility assessment of the integration of reactor power system concepts with a projected growth Space Station architecture was conducted to address a variety of installation, operational, disposition and safety issues. A previous NASA sponsored study, which showed the advantages of Space Station - attached concepts, served as the basis for this study. A study methodology was defined and implemented to assess compatible combinations of reactor power installation concepts, disposal destinations, and propulsion methods. Three installation concepts that met a set of integration criteria were characterized from a configuration and operational viewpoint, with end-of-life disposal mass identified. Disposal destinations that met current aerospace nuclear safety criteria were identified and characterized from an operational and energy requirements viewpoint, with delta-V energy requirement as a key parameter. Chemical propulsion methods that met current and near-term application criteria were identified and payload mass and delta-V capabilities were characterized. These capabilities were matched against concept disposal mass and destination delta-V requirements to provide a feasibility of each combination.

Bloomfield, H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1987

A feasibility assessment of installation, operation and disposal options for nuclear reactor power system concepts for a NASA growth space station

A preliminary feasibility assessment of the integration of reactor power system concepts with a projected growth space station architecture was conducted to address a variety of installation, operational disposition, and safety issues. A previous NASA sponsored study, which showed the advantages of space station - attached concepts, served as the basis for this study. A study methodology was defined and implemented to assess compatible combinations of reactor power installation concepts, disposal destinations, and propulsion methods. Three installation concepts that met a set of integration criteria were characterized from a configuration and operational viewpoint, with end-of-life disposal mass identified. Disposal destinations that met current aerospace nuclear safety criteria were identified and characterized from an operational and energy requirements viewpoint, with delta-V energy requirement as a key parameter. Chemical propulsion methods that met current and near-term application criteria were identified and payload mass and delta-V capabilities were characterized. These capabilities were matched against concept disposal mass and destination delta-V requirements to provide the feasibility of each combination.

Bloomfield, Harvey S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lunar/Mars Surface Habitat Mockups Project

Surface habitats play a centric role with respect to integration of the crew operations and supporting surface systems for external operations on the moon and Mars. Up to now the only planetary surface habitat NASA has ever developed is the 2-person, 3-day duration Lunar Module from the 1960 s-era Apollo Program. Today s National Vision for Space Exploration pushes far beyond the safety, performance and operational requirements of the Lunar Module, and NASA needs to develop a basis for making habitat design decisions Experience has shown that using mockups very early in a project s life cycle is extremely beneficial, providing data that influences requirements for human design, volumetrics, functionality, systems hardware and operations. Evaluating and comparing a variety of habitat configurations will provide NASA with a cost-effective basis for trades to support lunar and Martian habitat design selection. This paper describes the NASA project that recently has been created to undertake the development and evaluation of a series of planetary surface habitat mockups. This project is in direct response to the Advanced Space Platforms and Systems (ASPS) Element Program s request for novel systems approaches for robust and reconfigurable habitation systems.

Tri, Terry O.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Definition and Development of Habitation Readiness Levels (HRLs) for Planetary Surface Habitats

One could argue that NASA has never developed a true habitat for a planetary surface, with only the Lunar Module from the 1960's-era Apollo Program providing for a sparse 2 person, 3 day capability. An integral part of NASA's current National Vision for Space Exploration is missions back to the moon and eventually to Mars. One of the largest leaps i11 lunar surface exploration beyond the Apollo lunar missions will be the conduct of these extended duration human missions. These missions could range from 30 to 90 days in length initially and may eventually range up to 500 days in length. To enable these extended duration human missions, probably the single-most important lunar surface element is the Surface Habitat. The requirements that must be met by the Surface Habitat will go far beyond the safety, performance and operational requirements of the Lunar Module, and NASA needs to develop a basis for making intelligent, technically correct habitat design decisions. This paper will discuss the possibilities of the definition and development of a Habitation Readiness Level (HRL) scale that might be mapped to current Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) for technology development. HRLs could help measure how well a particular technology thrust is advanced by a proposed planetary habitat concept. The readiness level would have to be measured differently than TRLs, and may include such milestones as habitat design performance under simulated mission operations and constraints (including relevant field testing), functional allocation demonstrations, crew interface evaluation and post-occupancy evaluation. With many concepts for planetary habitats proposed over the past 20 years, there are many strategic technical challenges facing designers of planetary habitats that will support NASA's exploration of the moon and Mars. The systematic assessment of a variety of planetary habitat options will be an important approach and will influence the associated requirements for human design, volumetrics, functionality, systems hardware and operations.

Connolly, Janis H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

CATS-based Agents That Err

This report describes preliminary research on intelligent agents that make errors. Such agents are crucial to the development of novel agent-based techniques for assessing system safety. The agents extend an agent architecture derived from the Crew Activity Tracking System that has been used as the basis for air traffic controller agents. The report first reviews several error taxonomies. Next, it presents an overview of the air traffic controller agents, then details several mechanisms for causing the agents to err in realistic ways. The report presents a performance assessment of the error-generating agents, and identifies directions for further research. The research was supported by the System-Wide Accident Prevention element of the FAA/NASA Aviation Safety Program.

Callantine, Todd J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Navigating the Complexities of Safety and Mission Assurance Across NASA's Partnership Landscape

As NASA increasingly pursues collaborative public-private partnerships and international efforts to advance space exploration goals, ensuring robust safety and mission assurance protocols has become more complex. The evolving dynamics introduce multifaceted challenges spanning regulatory oversight, governance and acquisition models, and technical standardization. To address these issues, NASA plans to prioritize deeper integration of safety and mission assurance principles from the formulation and acquisition stages when structuring partnerships and contracts. This embeds appropriate oversight from the start. Additionally, it is vital to establish an enterprise-level capability focused on identifying and resolving cross-cutting risks that transcend individual missions. Together, all these initial thoughts will form the basis of a broad roadmap of decisions that aims to ensure strategic alignment from policy to implementation allowing NASA to harmonize the currently fragmented safety and mission assurance ecosystem as it navigates the complexities introduced by the new era of public-private space partnerships.

Johnny T Nguyen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Navigating the Complexities of Safety and Mission Assurance Across NASA's Partnership Landscape

Johnny T Nguyen↗

NASA NTRS1981

Overview study of combustion experiments in a space laboratory

A program of reduced gravity fluids research was initiated in the late 1950s. The primary motivations for this program was a need to characterize the behavior of propellants in a space environment. In the conduction of experiments, use was made of drop towers, aircraft, and ballistic rockets. There remained a core of problems which could not be solved with the aid of the employed approaches. Proposals for Spacelab experiments were, therefore, submitted. A committee came to the overall conclusion that there was a broad range of combustion experimentation that should be conducted in space. An examination of the analytical models which exist for numerous combustion phenomena reveals that these, are 'zero-G' theories. Experimentation in space will permit these theories to be tested and establish a firm basis upon which to build an understanding of more complicated combustion processes. Realistic in-space fire safety criteria are needed to eliminate the risk of major fire hazards in space. Such criteria can only be obtained through long-term reduced-gravity experimentation.

Cochran, T. H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ATTRACTOR: Toward Trustworthy and Trusted Autonomous Systems

The question of what it means and what it takes for an autonomous system to consider another autonomous system justifiably trustworthy must be addressed by all who seek to integrate intelligent machine agents into real-world operations. A satisfactory answer to this question is an essential component in accepting autonomous machine decision-making in safety-critical and time-critical environments, such as aviation. Historically, simulation platforms for test and evaluation of complex systems have proven to be effective in assessing performance and contributing to decisions on the fitness of systems to operate in current general and commercial aviation airspace. Moreover, simulations have informed the definition of safety-critical constraints. However, as machine systems progressively take on responsibilities for decision-making traditionally supplied by humans, simulations require enhancement. Mixed reality simulation that integrates real-world platforms and data or high-fidelity simulation data in a sim-to-flight paradigm provides insight into agent interaction and the rationale behind autonomous agent decision-making as well as the capacity for seamless integrated implementation, testing, and operation of systems. Strong simulation capabilities are especially important in the presence of algorithms that hold great promise in decision-making yet increase the uncertainty in the system. Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) is a subproject of NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) Project. ATTRACTOR’s objective is to build a basis for understanding trust and trustworthiness in multi-agent autonomous teams, and thus to inform future certification of safety-critical and time-critical autonomous systems in aviation. Because the concepts of trust and trustworthiness must be addressed in a context, ATTRACTOR has chosen Search and Rescue (SAR) in dynamic and unstructured environments, with emphasis on search, as its design reference mission (DRM). During dynamic planning and execution of trajectory-based operations, autonomous agents determine their trajectories given an assigned mission or missions and call for assistance from an appropriate teammate when needed. This experience along with the attendant human-machine and machine-machine interactions, serve as a platform for developing approaches to identifying and measuring trustworthiness and increasing trust. In this paper, we give an overview of some of ATTRACTOR’s research and development activities, findings, and ongoing work.

ATTRACTOR↗

NASA NTRS2007

In Situ Multi-Species (O2, N2, Fuel, Other) Fiber Optic Sensor for Fuel Tank Ullage

A rugged and compact fiber optic sensor system for in situ real-time measurement of nitrogen (N2), oxygen (O2), hydrocarbon (HC) fuel vapors, and other gases has been developed over the past several years at Glenn Research Center. The intrinsically-safe, solid-state fiber optic sensor system provides a 1% precision measurement (by volume) of multiple gases in a 5-sec time window. The sensor has no consumable parts to wear out and requires less than 25 W of electrical power to operate. The sensor head is rugged and compact and is ideal for use in harsh environments such as inside an aircraft fuel tank, or as a feedback sensor in the vent-box of an on-board inert gas generation system (OBIGGS). Multiple sensor heads can be monitored with a single optical detection unit for a cost-effective multi-point sensor system. The present sensor technology is unique in its ability to measure N2 concentration directly, and in its ability to differentiate different types of HC fuels. The present sensor system provides value-added aircraft safety information by simultaneously and directly measuring the nitrogen-oxygen-fuel triplet, which provides the following advantages: (1) information regarding the extent of inerting by N2, (2) information regarding the chemical equivalence ratio, (3) information regarding the composition of the aircraft fuel, and (4) by providing a self-consistent calibration by utilizing a singular sensor for all species. Using the extra information made available by this sensor permits the ignitability of a fuel-oxidizer mixture to be more accurately characterized, which may permit a reduction in the amount of inerting required on a real-time basis, and yet still maintain a fire-safe fuel tank. This translates to an increase in fuel tank fire-safety through a better understanding of the physics of fuel ignition, and at the same time, a reduction in compressed bleed air usage and concomitant aircraft operational costs over the long-run. The present fiber optic sensor can also be used as a false-alarm-free engine/hidden/cargo space fire detector (by measuring increased CO2 and CO, and decreased O2), a multi-point in situ measurement and certification system for halogenated-compound fire protection systems, and for the testing and certification of other aircraft safety sensor systems. The technology (LEW-17826-1) developed in the present sensor system is patent pending.

Nguyen, Quang-Viet↗

NASA NTRS2016

Measuring Global Water Security Towards Sustainable Development Goals

Water plays an important role in underpinning equitable, stable and productive societies and ecosystems. Hence, United Nations recognized ensuring water security as one (Goal 6) of the seventeen sustainable development goals (SDGs). Many international river basins are likely to experience 'low water security' over the coming decades. Water security is rooted not only in the physical availability of freshwater resources relative to water demand, but also on social and economic factors (e.g. sound water planning and management approaches, institutional capacity to provide water services, sustainable economic policies). Until recently, advanced tools and methods are available for the assessment of water scarcity. However, quantitative and integrated-physical and socio-economic-approaches for spatial analysis of water security at global level are not available yet. In this study, we present a spatial multi-criteria analysis framework to provide a global assessment of water security. The selected indicators are based on Goal 6 of SDGs. The term 'security' is conceptualized as a function of 'availability', 'accessibility to services', 'safety and quality', and 'management'. The proposed global water security index (GWSI) is calculated by aggregating indicator values on a pixel-by-pixel basis, using the ordered weighted average method, which allows for the exploration of the sensitivity of final maps to different attitudes of hypothetical policy makers. Our assessment suggests that countries of Africa, South Asia and Middle East experience very low water security. Other areas of high water scarcity, such as some parts of United States, Australia and Southern Europe, show better GWSI values, due to good performance of management, safety and quality, and accessibility. The GWSI maps show the areas of the world in which integrated strategies are needed to achieve water related targets of the SDGs particularly in the African and Asian continents.

sustainable-development goals↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-18539-DND

Technical Challenges (TCs) are aligned to Program goals and Project objectives: - Provide research focus to solving aviation safety problems - Provide consistent framework to focus, direct, plan, execute, manage, and communicate Center-distributed research - Form basis for “contract” between Program and Project and Center

Ersin Ancel↗