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DOE OSTI2024

Beyond PCA: Additional Dimension Reduction Techniques to Consider in the Development of Climate Fingerprints

Abstract Dimension reduction techniques are an essential part of the climate analyst’s toolkit. Due to the enormous scale of climate data, dimension reduction methods are used to identify major patterns of variability within climate dynamics, to create compelling and informative visualizations, and to quantify major named modes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Principal components analysis (PCA), also known as the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), is the most commonly used form of dimension reduction, characterized by a remarkable confluence of attractive mathematical, statistical, and computational properties. Despite its ubiquity, PCA suffers from several difficulties relevant to climate science: high computational burden with large datasets, decreased statistical accuracy in high dimensions, and difficulties comparing across multiple datasets. In this paper, we introduce several variants of PCA that are likely to be of use in climate sciences and address these problems. Specifically, we introduce non-negative , sparse , and tensor PCA and demonstrate how each approach provides superior pattern recognition in climate data. We also discuss approaches to comparing PCA-family results within and across datasets in a domain-relevant manner. We demonstrate these approaches through an analysis of several runs of the E3SM climate model from 1991 to 1995, focusing on the simulated response to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption; our findings are consistent with a recently identified stratospheric warming fingerprint associated with this type of stratospheric aerosol injection.

Weylandt, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurements and kinetic modeling of O 2 vibrational kinetics in O 2 –Ar mixtures partially dissociated by a Ns pulse discharge

Vibrational kinetics of O 2 is studied during the O atom recombination in an O 2 –Ar mixture, partially dissociated by a burst of ns discharge pulses in a heated plasma flow reactor. The time-resolved temperature in the discharge afterglow is determined by Rayleigh scattering. Time-resolved O atom number density is measured by ps Two-Photon absorption Laser Induced Fluorescence, calibrated in xenon. Time-resolved vibrational level populations of molecular oxygen, O 2 (v= 8–20), are measured by ps Laser Induced Fluorescence (LIF), with the absolute calibration by NO LIF. Time-resolved ozone number density is monitored by broadband UV absorption. The results are compared with the predictions of a state-specific kinetic model. The experimental data indicate a rapid initial decay of O 2 (v) populations generated by electron impact in the discharge, due to the vibration-translation (V–T) relaxation by O atoms. This is followed by a slower population reduction, on the time scale much longer compared to that for V–T relaxation or vibration-vibration (V–V) exchange. Both O atoms and the O 2 (v) populations decay on the same time scale, indicating that chemical reactions initiated by the O atom recombination result in the generation of vibrationally excited O 2 molecules. These trends are reproduced by the kinetic model, which shows that the reaction of O atoms with ozone is the dominant pathway of O 2 (v) generation at the present conditions. The predicted relative O 2 (v) populations are close to the experimental results, but absolute number densities differ from the experimental data. This is likely due to uncertainties in the absolute calibration of LIF measurements and in the spectroscopic model used in the data reduction. The present work demonstrates the capability for the absolute, time-resolved measurements of vibrationally excited O 2 in recombining gas flows, to quantify the energy partition in the recombination reactions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct observation of the local microenvironment in inhomogeneous CO 2 reduction gas diffusion electrodes via versatile pOH imaging

In this study, we report how the micrometer-scale morphology of a carbon dioxide reduction (CO 2 R) gas diffusion electrode (GDE) affects the mass transport properties and with it, the local CO 2 R performance. We developed a technique to probe the microenvironment in a CO 2 R GDE via local pOH imaging with time- and three-dimensional spatial, micrometer-scale resolution. The local activity of hydroxide anions (OH - ), represented by the pOH value, around a GDE in contact with an aqueous electrolyte is a crucial parameter that governs the catalytic activity and CO 2 R selectivity. Here, we use fluorescence confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) to create maps of the local pOH around a copper GDE by combining two ratiometric fluorescent dyes, one of which is demonstrated as a pOH sensor for the first time in this work. We observe that the local pOH decreases when current is applied due to the creation of OH - as a byproduct of CO 2 R. Interestingly, the pOH is lower inside microtrenches compared to the electrode surface and decreases further as trenches become more narrow due to enhanced trapping of OH - . We support our experimental results with multiphysics simulations that correlate exceptionally well with measurements. These simulations additionally suggest that the decreased pOH inside microcavities in the surface of a CO 2 R GDE leads to locally enhanced selectivity towards multicarbon (C 2+ ) products. This study suggests that narrow microstructures on the length scale of 5 μm in a GDE surface serve as local CO 2 R hotspots, and thus highlights the importance of a GDE's micromorphology on the CO 2 R performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

SNS: A Solution-Based Nonlinear Subspace Method for Time-Dependent Model Order Reduction

Several reduced order models have been successfully developed for nonlinear dynamical systems. To achieve a considerable speed-up, a hyper-reduction step is needed to reduce the computational complexity due to nonlinear terms. Many hyper-reduction techniques require the construction of nonlinear term basis, which introduces a computationally expensive offline phase. A novel way of constructing nonlinear term basis within the hyper-reduction process is introduced. In contrast to the traditional hyper-reduction techniques where the collection of nonlinear term snapshots is required, the SNS method avoids collecting the nonlinear term snapshots. Instead, it uses the solution snapshots that are used for building a solution basis, which enables avoiding an extra data compression of nonlinear term snapshots. As a result, the SNS method provides a more efficient offline strategy than the traditional model order reduction techniques, such as the DEIM, GNAT, and ST-GNAT methods. The SNS method is theoretically justified by the conforming subspace condition and the subspace inclusion relation. It is useful for model order reduction of large-scale nonlinear dynamical problems to reduce the offline cost. It is especially useful for ST-GNAT that has shown promising results, such as a good accuracy with a considerable online speed-up for hyperbolic problems in a recent paper by Choi and Carlberg [SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 41 (2019), pp. A26--A58], because ST-GNAT involves an expensive offline cost related to collecting nonlinear term snapshots. Error analysis for the SNS method is presented. Numerical results support that the accuracy of the solution from the SNS method is comparable to the traditional methods and a considerable speed-up (i.e., a factor of two to a hundred) is achieved in the offline phase.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cloud adjustments from large-scale smoke–circulation interactions strongly modulate the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition

Smoke from southern Africa blankets the southeastern Atlantic Ocean from June to October, producing strong and competing aerosol radiative effects. Smoke effects on the transition between overcast stratocumulus and scattered cumulus clouds are investigated along a Lagrangian (air-mass-following) trajectory in regional climate and large eddy simulation models. Results are compared with observations from three recent field campaigns that took place in August 2017: ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES), CLouds and Aerosol Radiative Impacts and Forcing: Year 2017 (CLARIFY), and Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC). The case study is set up around the joint ORACLES–CLARIFY flight that took place near Ascension Island on 18 August 2017. Smoke sampled upstream on an ORACLES flight on 15 August 2017 likely entrained into the marine boundary layer later sampled during the joint flight. The case is first simulated with the WRF-CAM5 regional climate model in three distinct setups: (1) FireOn, in which smoke emissions and any resulting smoke–cloud–radiation interactions are included; (2) FireOff, in which no smoke emissions are included; (3) RadOff, in which smoke emissions and their microphysical effects are included but aerosol does not interact directly with radiation. Over the course of the Lagrangian trajectory, differences in free tropospheric thermodynamic properties between FireOn and FireOff are nearly identical to those between FireOn and RadOff, showing that aerosol–radiation interactions are primarily responsible for the free tropospheric effects. These effects are non-intuitive: in addition to the expected heating within the core of the smoke plume, there is also a “banding” effect of cooler temperature (~1–2 K) and greatly enhanced moisture (>2 g kg -1 ) at the plume top. This banding effect is caused by a vertical displacement of the former continental boundary layer in the free troposphere in the FireOn simulation resulting from anomalous diabatic heating due to smoke absorption of sunlight that manifests primarily as a few hundred meters per day reduction in large-scale subsidence over the ocean. A large eddy simulation (LES) is then forced with free tropospheric fields taken from the outputs for the WRF-CAM5 FireOn and FireOff runs. Cases are run by selectively perturbing one variable (e.g., aerosol number concentration, temperature, moisture, vertical velocity) at a time to better understand the contributions from different indirect (microphysical), “large-scale” semi-direct (above-cloud thermodynamic and subsidence changes), and “local” semi-direct (below-cloud smoke absorption) effects. Despite a more than 5-fold increase in cloud droplet number concentration when including smoke aerosol concentrations, minimal differences in cloud fraction evolution are simulated by the LES when comparing the base case with a perturbed aerosol case with identical thermodynamic and dynamic forcings. A factor of 2 decrease in background free tropospheric aerosol concentrations from the FireOff simulation shifts the cloud evolution from a classical entrainment-driven “deepening–warming” transition to trade cumulus to a precipitation-driven “drizzle-depletion” transition to open cells, however. The thermodynamic and dynamic changes caused by the WRF-simulated large-scale adjustments to smoke diabatic heating strongly influence cloud evolution in terms of both the rate of deepening (especially for changes in the inversion temperature jump and in subsidence) and in cloud fraction on the final day of the simulation (especially for the moisture “banding” effect). Such large-scale semi-direct effects would not have been possible to simulate using a small-domain LES model alone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future-proofing photovoltaics module reliability through a unifying predictive modeling framework

Solar energy, especially photovoltaics (PV), plays a significant role in the global energy transition required for decarbonization. Technological advancements in increasing efficiencies coupled with cost reductions through economies of scale made PV a cost-competitive energy source set to exceed the milestone of 1 TW globally deployed capacity in 2022. However, ongoing downward price pressure coupled with increasing service life expectations creates tremendous challenges for reliability engineers in ensuring the safe and reliable operation of PV modules and systems over the anticipated service life. Today's reliability research efforts aim for module lifetimes of up to 50 years. Still, our current tools fall short in accurately assessing degradation mechanisms and failure modes over such extended periods. We argue that the well-established PV reliability learning cycle needs to be accelerated to keep up with the rapid technological advancements and high expectations that are put on PV and its role in the global energy transition. In this article, we explore the evolution of the PV reliability learning cycle and highlight the significance that predictive modeling capabilities will have on future PV module reliability. We propose creating a unifying modeling framework - which once established will enable the holistic assessment of PV module reliability, accelerate the PV reliability learning cycle, and bring us closer to quantitative service life predictions of PV modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical learning for predicting density–matrix-based electron dynamics

In this study, we consider the problem of learning density-dependent molecular Hamiltonian matrices from time series of electron density matrices, all in the context of Hartree–Fock theory. Prior work developed a solution to this problem for small molecular systems with density and Hamiltonian matrices of size at most 6 × 6. Here, using a battery of techniques, we scale prior methods to larger molecular systems with, for example, 29 × 29 matrices. This includes systems that either have more electrons or are expressed in large basis sets such as 6-311++G**. Scaling the method to larger systems enhances its relevance for realistic applications in chemistry and physics. To achieve this scaling, we apply dimensionality reduction, ridge regression and analytic computation of Hessians. Through the combination of these techniques, we are able to learn Hamiltonians by minimizing an objective function that encodes local propagation error. Importantly, these learned Hamiltonians can then be used to predict electron dynamics for thousands of steps: When we use our learned Hamiltonians to numerically solve the time-dependent Hartree–Fock equation, we obtain predicted dynamics that are in close quantitative agreement with ground truth dynamics. This includes field-off trajectories similar to the training data and field-on trajectories outside of the training data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamic origin of the pressure-induced Invar effect: General criterion and experimental study of Fe 68 ⁢Pd 32

Synchrotron X-ray diffraction measurements were performed on 57 Fe 68 Pd 32 at multiple pressures and two temperatures in a diamond-anvil cell. Between 4 and 11GPa, the thermal expansion was zero or slightly negative. This pressure-induced Invar effect was studied further with 57 Fe nuclear forward scattering and nuclear resonant inelastic X-ray scattering to obtain information on the pressure-induced changes in both the magnetization and the phonon density of states. Magnetic entropy and phonon entropy were obtained from these results, the latter with additional measurements from inelastic neutron scattering to account for the contributions from Pd atoms. The dependencies of these entropies on pressure gave the magnetic and phonon contributions to thermal expansion. These canceled in the region of pressure-induced Invar behavior, even though they individually increased by more than a factor of 2 below the Curie pressure. The behavior of phonons gives evidence for spin-phonon interactions in Fe 68 Pd 32 . A general explanation of the pressure-induced Invar effect is presented, showing that Invar behavior is typically expected at a pressure P* below a magnetic transition at pressure PC. The difference in pressure P C − P* scales with the fractional reduction in magnetic exchange interaction divided by the average Gr¨uneisen parameter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Online Adaptive Algorithm for Constraint Energy Minimizing Generalized Multiscale Discontinuous Galerkin Method

Here in this research, we propose an online basis enrichment strategy within the framework of a recently developed constraint energy minimizing generalized multiscale discontinuous Galerkin method. Combining the technique of oversampling, one makes use of the information of the current residuals to adaptively construct basis functions in the online stage to reduce the error of multiscale approximation. A complete analysis of the method is presented, which shows the proposed online enrichment leads to a fast convergence from multiscale approximation to the fine-scale solution. The error reduction can be made sufficiently large by suitably selecting oversampling regions and the number of oversampling layers. Further, the convergence rate of the enrichment algorithm depends on a factor of exponential decay regarding the number of oversampling layers and a user-defined parameter. Numerical results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed online adaptive algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

State of the art in low-temperature and high-temperature electrolysis

Water electrolysis is gaining traction in large-scale applications, with production of multiple technologies scaling to hundreds and thousands of megawatts of new electrolyzer capacity annually. Low-temperature electrolysis has dominated the electrolyzer market for decades, but still only represents a small amount of the overall hydrogen market, due to the higher production costs versus hydrogen derived from fossil fuels. Advances are needed in capital cost and efficiency to close the cost gap, especially for energy applications. Similarly, while high-temperature electrolyzers can operate more efficiently, reducing the operating cost, they still need further scale-up and cost reduction to compete in these markets. Understanding the recent advances in each and the priority research directions is important to focus and accelerate innovation, and will be discussed in this article. The different advantages and disadvantages of each of these technologies will also be reviewed; there will likely be applications for each in the overall deployment of renewable hydrogen.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

International Meeting on Fuel Cell and Electrolyzer Quality Control: Summary Report

Quality control (QC) for both polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell and electrolysis membrane electrode assembly (MEA) materials is a key challenge for scale-up and cost reduction. Developing methods for detecting defects, as well as measuring critical material properties and understanding the impact of as-manufactured variations in these materials on cell performance and lifetime, are critical barriers. To help address these needs, the National Research Council Canada (NRC), Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have organized and facilitated a series of workshops on the topic, bringing together industry, academia, and research institutions from North America and Europe. Prior workshops in Canada and Germany have focused on the status of quality tool capabilities and identification of needed developments for fuel cells. These meetings have garnered an excellent response and follow-on attendance, with over 100 unique attendees.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recyclable Design for Retaining High Solar Absorptivity of the Media in CSP

Efficient thermal energy storage is pivotal to lowering the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. In solid-particle systems, however, prolonged high-temperature service degrades particle solar absorptivity, eroding overall efficiency. This project demonstrates a hydrogen-assisted recovery process that reliably restores absorptivity to >90 %, offering a practical route to sustain long-term CSP performance. Bench-scale investigations mapped the reduction kinetics of optically faded particles across hydrogen concentrations, temperatures, and residence times. Coupling mass-spectrometric monitoring with machine-learning optimization minimized energy demand while maximizing absorptivity gain. The resulting process window—moderate hydrogen partial pressures, 15–30 min dwell times, and temperatures well below initial calcination levels—cuts energy consumption well below that of incumbent re-blackening methods. A prototype recovery reactor processed multiple 2 kg batches with repeatable outcomes, confirming scalability and operational robustness. Integrated techno-economic analysis indicates material and operating cost reductions exceeding 15 % relative to conventional particle replacement or chemical re-coating, translating directly into lower LCOE for next-generation CSP facilities. By uniting fundamental reaction-kinetics insight with pragmatic engineering, this work advances the solid-particle pathway, delivering a cost-effective, field-deployable solution to one of CSP’s key durability challenges and strengthening the commercial outlook for high-temperature renewable power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Future of Fuels: Meeting Global Decarbonization Goals

Petroleum has served as the source of the vast majority of our transportation fuel for well over a century. During the past few decades, biofuels—primarily ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel/jet, and renewable natural gas—have steadily increased in volume though still represent a small portion of the total fuel mix. While initially driven by energy security considerations, recent policies promoting increased biofuel use have been motivated by greenhouse gas reductions. Within the past couple years, significant interest has emerged in “e-fuels”—fuels produced from a carbon source (e.g., CO2) and electricity. If sourced from renewable electrons, e-fuels have the potential to provide significant GHG reductions, though questions of scale and economics remain. This talk will discuss recent research into advanced fuels properties and production routs, as well as issues and challenges that fuels must overcome to power ICEs in the mid 21st century.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power packet networks for wave energy converter arrays

One of the biggest challenges for all renewable energy sources (RES) is that they are variable power generators which will require reactive power or energy storage systems (ESS) to provide reliable power quality (ideally power factor of one) at the power grid generation side. The present invention is directed to a power packet network (PPN) for integrating wave energy converter (WEC) arrays into microgrids. Specifically, an array of WECs can be physically positioned such that the incoming regular waves will produce an output emulating an N-phase AC system such that the PPN output power is constant. ESS requirements are thereby minimized whilst maintaining grid stability with high power quality. This will enable RES integration onto a future smart grid for large-scale adoption and cost reduction while preserving high efficiency, reliability, and resiliency.

Wilson, David G.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Generalized Grain-Scale Model for the Non-Plasma and Plasma-Assisted Hydrogen Direct Reduction of Iron Ore

Direct Reduction of Iron ore using hydrogen (H-DRI) is a promising pathway towards efficient steelmaking and accurate predictive models are a necessity for scale-up and optimization of this technology. However, accurate models of this process remain limited because existing models oversimplify grain-scale phenomena, such as nonlinearity inside grain, self-sufficient porosity, surface reactions, and the role of plasma species. These phenomena are important for flash steelmaking and plasma-assisted H-DRI processes. To address this need, we present a phenomenological model for simulating H-DRI at the scale of a single micron-sized grain of the iron ore. We call this the Transient Reactive Grain Model (TRGM). TRGM incorporates key physical process: gas species transport, a chemical kinetics of material conversion, nanopore structural evolution and, adsorption-desorption surface kinetics at the reactive nanopore surface. The important contribution of this work is that the model provides a dependence on different reductant species, specifically hydrogen atoms versus molecules, so that role of hydrogen plasma reduction can be clarified compared to the use of pure hydrogen gas reduction. TRGM predictions agree well with experimental data for both molecular H2 reduction of Fe2O3 and plasma hydrogen reduction of Fe3O4. Results reveal species concentration gradients with a diffuse reaction zone, and enhanced hydrogen diffusion at the grain outer surface due to evolving porosity. These findings challenge common assumptions in existing models, including sharp reaction fronts, quasi-steady diffusion and kinetics, and the neglect of surface chemistry. As a generalized grain-scale model for H-DRI processes, TRGM has practical applications in flash steelmaking and in-flight reduction using both molecular and plasma hydrogen.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Empirical scaling of the L–H threshold power for metal wall tokamaks using a multi-device database

The empirical scaling for the H-mode power threshold in tokamaks has been revisited using a database with threshold data from machines with a metallic first wall as part of International Tokamak Physics Activity (ITPA) task TC-26. The database contains discharges from ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) (W), JET (Be/W) and Alcator C-Mod (Mo). This was motivated by reports that in like-for-like discharges the power threshold was reduced by approximately 30% after the change from carbon based to metallic first wall materials on AUG (Ryter et al 2013 Nucl. Fusion 53 113003) and JET (Maggi et al 2014 Nucl. Fusion 54 023007). The database contains L–H transition data for all hydrogen isotopes and mixtures, including T and DT from the recent JET campaigns. Compared to the ITPA 2008 scaling (Martin et al 2008 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 123 012033), the metal wall scaling has a smaller magnetic field exponent but a larger density exponent. We present an additional parameter to capture the strong dependence of the L–H power threshold (approx. factor 2) on the magnetic configuration in the divertor on JET. The scaling recovers the approximate inverse isotope mass scaling of the threshold power. Alternative scalings involving the plasma current and poloidal magnetic field are explored. Despite the reduction in threshold observed earlier, the scalings based on the metal wall database do not necessarily extrapolate to a lower threshold for ITER compared to the ITPA 2008 scaling, especially at high density. The divertor configuration effect induces the largest uncertainty in the extrapolation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-group Examination of Nickel-Reflected HEU System [Slides]

Researchers noted an unusually large bias for 8-in. nickel reflected HEU sphere in HMF-003 between the 252- group library and the CE library in SCALE 6.2.4. The bias was investigated by reviewing reactions that $k_{eff}$ is sensitive to using TSUNAMI and collecting reaction rate data using tools within SCALE. For this system, bias is primarily due to the elastic scattering in nickel. Researchers compared new multigroup structures in SCALE 6.3. For this system, reduction in CE-to-MG bias seen in the 302-group and further improved in the 1597-group structure. When researchers compared ENDF/B-VIII.0 in SCALE 6.3, library showed improved results with new nickel evaluation. However, the MG-to-CE bias can still be large as large biases can occur in any system. This example highlights the importance of validating results with measured systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SCALE 6.2.4 Validation: Radiation Shielding

For safe and reliable use of computer codes by the community, accuracy must be clearly evaluated. In particular, the nuclear reactor engineering and licensing field needs accurate tools for radiation shielding modeling. Monaco with Automated Variance Reduction using Importance Calculations (MAVRIC) is one such tool, with built-in variance reduction methods distributed within the SCALE code, and its validity is demonstrated in this report for the released version 6.2.4. Representative benchmarks corresponding to shielding analysis are selected for the validation study. Typical experimental results analyzed from those benchmarks include neutron fluxes, detector count rates, detector energy response functions, neutron and gamma doses, foil neutron activation rates and activities, neutron leakage fluxes, and skyshine dose rates. Thousands of points of comparison between experiment and calculation are presented in this work. Other than rare outliers typically explained by either a lack of information or large uncertainties in the experiment conditions, material, or dimensions, MAVRIC agrees well with the experiment results. MAVRIC is also compared to Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) calculations when available, and both codes generally produce good agreements within estimated uncertainties. The selected benchmarks are obtained from reliable sources such as the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook (ICSBEP Handbook), the Shielding Integral Benchmark Archive & Database (SINBAD), and other shielding validation work found in the literature. Additional datapoints and benchmarks will be added to future versions of this report to incrementally expand the shielding validation suite incrementally.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗