Results for “scenario reduction” — Page 6

NASA NTRS2015

NASA Propulsion Concept Studies and Risk Reduction Activities for Resource Prospector Lander

The trade study has led to the selection of propulsion concept with the lowest cost and net lowest risk -Government-owned, flight qualified components -Meet mission requirements although the configuration is not optimized. Risk reduction activities have provided an opportunity -Implement design improvements while development with the early-test approach. -Gain knowledge on the operation and identify operation limit -Data to anchor analytical models for future flight designs; The propulsion system cold flow tests series have provided valuable data for future design. -The pressure surge from the system priming and waterhammer within component operation limits. -Enable to optimize the ullage volume to reduce the propellant tank mass; RS-34 hot fire tests have successfully demonstrated of using the engines for the RP mission -No degradation of performance due to extended storage life of the hardware. -Enable to operate the engine for RP flight mission scenarios, outside of the qualification regime. -Provide extended data for the thermal and GNC designs. Significant progress has been made on NASA propulsion concept design and risk reductions for Resource Prospector lander.

Trinh, Huu P.↗

NASA NTRS2009

From LEO, to the Moon and then Mars: Developing a Global Strategy for Exploration Risk Reduction

Most nations currently involved in human spaceflight, or with such ambitions, believe that space exploration will capture the imagination of our youth resulting in future engineers and scientists, advance technologies which will improve life on earth, increase the knowledge of our solar system, and strengthen bonds and relationships across the globe. The Global Exploration Strategy, published in 2007 by 14 space agencies, eloquently makes this case and presents a vision for space exploration. It argues that in order for space exploration to be sustainable, nations must work together to address the challenges and share the burden of costs. This paper will examine Mars mission scenarios developed by NASA, ESA and other agencies and show resulting conclusions regarding key challenges, needed technologies and associated mission risks. It will discuss the importance of using the International Space Station as a platform for exploration risk reduction and how the global exploration community will develop lunar exploration elements and architectures that enable the long term goal of human missions to Mars. The International Space Station (ISS) is a critical first step both from a technology and capability demonstration point of view, but also from a partnership point of view. There is much work that can be done in low earth orbit for exploration risk reduction. As the current "outpost at the edge of the frontier", the ISS is a place where we can demonstrate certain technologies and capabilities that will substantially reduce the risk of deploying an outpost on the lunar surface and Mars mission scenarios. The ISS partnership is strong and has fulfilled mission needs. Likewise, the partnerships we build on the moon will provide a strong foundation for establishing partnerships for the human Mars missions. On the moon, we build a permanently manned outpost and deploy technologies and capabilities to allow humans to stay for long periods of time. The moon is interesting from a scientific point of view, but it is extremely important for development and demonstration the technologies and capabilities needed for human missions to Mars. This paper will show the logic and strategy for addressing technological, operational and programmatic challenges by using low earth orbit and lunar missions to enable the long term goal of exploration of our solar system.

Laurini, Kathleen C.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Identifying and analyzing methods for reducing the energy consumption of helicopters

Reductions in helicopter energy consumption can be accomplished through the use of advanced technology in the areas of powerplant design, improved rotor efficiency, reduced parasite drag, and reduced structural empty weight. Baseline helicopters incorporating technology were designed for a short range (200 n mi) and a very short haul (100 n mi) mission scenario. Parametric analyses were then conducted to determine the impact of technology improvement. Many of the parameters varied are interrelated. A summary of such interactions is presented, and some additional sensitivity values were added so that energy reduction and DOC as affected by the major technological factors or operational modes are clearly defined.

Davis, S. J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Orion Entry Handling Qualities Assessments

The Orion Command Module (CM) is a capsule designed to bring crew back from the International Space Station (ISS), the moon and beyond. The atmospheric entry portion of the flight is deigned to be flown in autopilot mode for nominal situations. However, there exists the possibility for the crew to take over manual control in off-nominal situations. In these instances, the spacecraft must meet specific handling qualities criteria. To address these criteria two separate assessments of the Orion CM s entry Handling Qualities (HQ) were conducted at NASA s Johnson Space Center (JSC) using the Cooper-Harper scale (Cooper & Harper, 1969). These assessments were conducted in the summers of 2008 and 2010 using the Advanced NASA Technology Architecture for Exploration Studies (ANTARES) six degree of freedom, high fidelity Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) simulation. This paper will address the specifics of the handling qualities criteria, the vehicle configuration, the scenarios flown, the simulation background and setup, crew interfaces and displays, piloting techniques, ratings and crew comments, pre- and post-fight briefings, lessons learned and changes made to improve the overall system performance. The data collection tools, methods, data reduction and output reports will also be discussed. The objective of the 2008 entry HQ assessment was to evaluate the handling qualities of the CM during a lunar skip return. A lunar skip entry case was selected because it was considered the most demanding of all bank control scenarios. Even though skip entry is not planned to be flown manually, it was hypothesized that if a pilot could fly the harder skip entry case, then they could also fly a simpler loads managed or ballistic (constant bank rate command) entry scenario. In addition, with the evaluation set-up of multiple tasks within the entry case, handling qualities ratings collected in the evaluation could be used to assess other scenarios such as the constant bank angle maintenance case. The 2008 entry assessment was divided into two sections (see Figure 1). Entry I was the first, high speed portion of a lunar return and Entry II was the second, lower speed portion of a lunar return, which is similar (but not identical) to a typical ISS return.

Bihari, B.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The volcanic signal in Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model simulations

Transient calculations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model for the climatic signal of volcanic eruptions are analyzed. By compositing the output for two different volcanoes for scenario A and five different volcanoes for scenario B, the natural variability is suppressed and the volcanic signals are extracted. Significant global mean surface air temperature cooling and precipitation reduction are found for several years following the eruptions, with larger changes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than in the Southern Hemisphere. The global-average temperature response lasts for more than four years, but the precipitation response disappears after three years. The largest cooling in the model occurs in the NH summer of the year after spring eruptions. Significant zonal-average temperature reductions begin in the tropics immediately after the eruptions and extend to 45 deg S - 45 deg N in the year after the eruptions. In the second year, cooling is still seen from 30 deg S to 30 deg N. Because of the low variability in this model as compared to the real world, these signals may appear more significant here than they would by attempting to isolate them using real data. The results suggest that volcanoes can enhance the drought in the Sahel. No evidence was found that stratospheric aerosols from the low-atitude volcanic eruptions can trigger El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in this model.

Robock, Alan↗

NASA NTRS2021

Future Climate Change Significantly Alters Interannual Wheat Yield Variability Over Half of Harvested Areas

Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation (CV)) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). About 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS2023

Adaptive Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Reduces Risk of Software Impacting Safety in Artemis Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is asking more of its human spaceflight programs than ever before through the collective Artemis Missions. The NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Program contributes to NASA’s human spaceflight goals by providing IV&V services for NASA’s critical spacecraft and ground software. The IV&V Program is tasked with providing assurance from both individual and integrated mission software perspectives. The Artemis IV&V organization is actively supporting six distinct development efforts: Orion, the Space Launch System (SLS), Exploration Ground Systems (EGS), Mission Control Center (MCC), the Lunar Gateway, and the Human Landing System (HLS), representing a wide diversity of developer organizations, management structures, and development approaches. With much of this extremely complex flight and ground software being essential to human safety both on the ground and in space, Artemis IV&V is likewise challenged to provide more value-added assurance to future Artemis missions within a constrained budget. To meet this challenge, Artemis IV&V employs a variety of novel and evolving “Adaptive IV&V” approaches for planning and executing IV&V analysis to increase both the efficiency and effectiveness of the IV&V Program’s assurance activities, and to address the difficulties imposed by assuring software for a large, highly integrated, multi-mission enterprise managed and executed by physically and organizationally distinct programs. Instilling agile principles like iterative planning cycles, self-organizing teams, and regular retrospectives, into IV&V planning and execution has led to a more rapid turnaround of a minimum viable assurance product and allowed for increased alignment of assurance activities with development progress. Adopting an assurance case methodology has led to greater consistency and clearer communication of assurance design and provided a foundation for long-term maintenance of assurance plans, products, and results across missions. The IV&V-developed Assurance / Safety Case Analytical Network (A-SCAN) framework and tool has enabled the quantification and tracking of system/software risk and confidence. These confidence measures provide a means to repeatedly express the impact of planned and completed assurance work and the remaining residual risk. Applied as part of a “Follow-the-Risk” organizational ethos, this allows consistent rightsizing of analysis rigor and intensity commensurate with the perceived risk of defects, as well as appropriate targeting of the highest risk areas of the software to find safety issues before they can manifest. Finally, the development of the IV&V Advanced Risk Reduction Integrated Software Test and Operations Tri-program Lightweight Environment (ARRISTOTLE), an integrated software-only simulation of Orion, SLS, and EGS systems, has made it possible to independently test integrated pad and flight scenarios and inject faults to observe how the Artemis multi-program, mission software behaves in degraded modes and in response to hazards. These adaptive IV&V investments have enabled Artemis IV&V to become more efficient and effective in IV&V planning and execution and respond more readily to changes in the risk landscape, increasing the breadth and depth of risk reduction possible within the available resources. Residual risk tracking allows IV&V to communicate more effectively with stakeholders, both internal and external at all levels, and inform key decision-making personnel. This evolving assurance design approach provides IV&V surety that work is performed in the highest risk, most value-added areas of the software, to keep our astronauts and ground crews safe and ensure mission success.

Gerek A Whitman↗

NASA NTRS2023

Adaptive Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Reduces Risk of Software Impacting Safety in Artemis Missions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is asking more of its human spaceflight programs than ever before through the collective Artemis Missions. The NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Program contributes to NASA’s human spaceflight goals by providing IV&V services for NASA’s critical spacecraft and ground software. The IV&V Program is tasked with providing assurance from both individual and integrated mission software perspectives. The Artemis IV&V organization is actively supporting six distinct development efforts: Orion, the Space Launch System (SLS), Exploration Ground Systems (EGS), Mission Control Center (MCC), the Lunar Gateway, and the Human Landing System (HLS), representing a wide diversity of developer organizations, management structures, and development approaches. With much of this extremely complex flight and ground software being essential to human safety both on the ground and in space, Artemis IV&V is likewise challenged to provide more value-added assurance to future Artemis missions within a constrained budget. To meet this challenge, Artemis IV&V employs a variety of novel and evolving “Adaptive IV&V” approaches for planning and executing IV&V analysis to increase both the efficiency and effectiveness of the IV&V Program’s assurance activities, and to address the difficulties imposed by assuring software for a large, highly integrated, multi-mission enterprise managed and executed by physically and organizationally distinct programs. Instilling agile principles like iterative planning cycles, self-organizing teams, and regular retrospectives, into IV&V planning and execution has led to a more rapid turnaround of a minimum viable assurance product and allowed for increased alignment of assurance activities with development progress. Adopting an assurance case methodology has led to greater consistency and clearer communication of assurance design and provided a foundation for long-term maintenance of assurance plans, products, and results across missions. The IV&V-developed Assurance / Safety Case Analytical Network (A-SCAN) framework and tool has enabled the quantification and tracking of system/software risk and confidence. These confidence measures provide a means to repeatedly express the impact of planned and completed assurance work and the remaining residual risk. Applied as part of a “Follow-the-Risk” organizational ethos, this allows consistent rightsizing of analysis rigor and intensity commensurate with the perceived risk of defects, as well as appropriate targeting of the highest risk areas of the software to find safety issues before they can manifest. Finally, the development of the IV&V Advanced Risk Reduction Integrated Software Test and Operations Tri-program Lightweight Environment (ARRISTOTLE), an integrated software-only simulation of Orion, SLS, and EGS systems, has made it possible to independently test integrated pad and flight scenarios and inject faults to observe how the Artemis multi-program, mission software behaves in degraded modes and in response to hazards. These adaptive IV&V investments have enabled Artemis IV&V to become more efficient and effective in IV&V planning and execution and respond more readily to changes in the risk landscape, increasing the breadth and depth of risk reduction possible within the available resources. Residual risk tracking allows IV&V to communicate more effectively with stakeholders, both internal and external at all levels, and inform key decision-making personnel. This evolving assurance design approach provides IV&V surety that work is performed in the highest risk, most value-added areas of the software, to keep our astronauts and ground crews safe and ensure mission success.

Gerek Whitman↗

NASA NTRS1999

Isotopic Constraints on the Genesis of Carbonates in Martian Meteorite ALH 84001

Oxygen isotopic analyses in approximately 20 micrometer spots in a chemically diverse suite of carbonates from ALH 84001 show highly variable delta(exp 18)O values from +5.4 to +25.3%. The isotopic data are correlated with the major element composition of the carbonate. The earliest forming (Ca-rich) carbonates have the lowest delta(exp 18)O values and the late-forming Mg-rich carbonates have the highest delta(exp 18)O values. Two models that can explain the isotopic variation were investigated. The carbonates could have formed in a water-rich environment at relatively low, but highly variable temperatures. In this open-system case the lower limit to the temperature variation is approximately 125 C, with fluctuations of over 250 C possible within the constraints of the model, depending on fluid composition. Alternatively the data can be explained by a closed-system model in which carbonates precipitated from a limited amount of a CO2-rich fluid. This scenario can reproduce the range of isotopic values observed, even at relatively high temperatures (greater than 500 C). Thus, the oxygen isotopic compositions do not provide unequivocal evidence for formation of the carbonates at low temperature. Neither of these scenarios is consistent with a biological origin of the carbonates and their associated features. Olivine from ALH 84001 occurs as clusters within orthopyroxene adjacent to fractures containing disrupted carbonate globules and feldspathic shock glass. The inclusions are irregular in shape and range in size from approximately 40 micrometers to submicrometer. The olivine exhibits a limited range of chemical composition from Fo(sub 65) to Fo(sub 66). We measured delta(exp 18)O values of the olivine to be +5.1 +/- 1.4%, indistinguishable within uncertainty from the host orthopyroxene. The data suggest that the olivine formed at high temperature (greater than 800 C), and is probably unrelated to carbonate formation. Instead the olivine probably formed by metamorphic reactions involving either dehydration of hydrous silicates or reduction of opx + spinel. If the reactions took place after carbonate formation, they could have caused devolatilization of siderite, producing the magnetite in the ALH carbonate globules. This scenario is also inconsistent with a biological origin for the features in ALH 84001.

Leshin, Laurie A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A current disruption mechanism in the neutral sheet - A possible trigger for substorm expansions

A linear analysis is performed to investigate the kinetic cross-field streaming instability in the earth's magnetotail neutral sheet region. Numerical solution of the dispersion equation shows that the instability can occur under conditions expected for the neutral sheet just prior to the onset of substorm expansion. The excited waves are obliquely propagating whistlers with a mixed polarization in the lower hybrid frequency range. The ensuing turbulence of this instability can lead to a local reduction of the cross-tail current causing it to continue through the ionosphere to form a substorm current wedge. A substorm expansion onset scenario is proposed based on this instability in which the relative drift between ions and electrons is primarily due to unmagnetized ions undergoing current sheet acceleration in the presence of a cross-tail electric field. The required electric field strength is within the range of electric field values detected in the neutral sheet region during substorm intervals. The skew in local time of substorm onset location and the three conditions under which substorm onset is observed can be understood on the basis of the proposed scenario.

Lui, A. T. Y.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Transport and Use of a Centaur Second Stage in Space

As nations continue to explore space, the desire to reduce costs will continue to grow. As a method of cost reduction, transporting and/or use of launch system components as integral components of missions may become more commonplace in the future. There have been numerous scenarios written for using launch vehicle components (primarily space shuttle used external tanks) as part of flight missions or future habitats. Future studies for possible uses of launch vehicle upper stages might include asteroid diverter using gravity orbital perturbation, orbiting station component, raw material at an outpost, and kinetic impactor. The LCROSS (Lunar CRater Observation and Sensing Satellite) mission was conceived as a low-cost means of determining whether water exists at the polar regions of the moon. Manifested as a secondary payload with the LRO (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter) spacecraft aboard an Atlas V launch vehicle, LCROSS guided its spent Centaur Earth Departure Upper Stage (EDUS) into the lunar crater Cabeu's, as a kinetic impactor. This paper describes some of the challenges that the LCROSS project encountered in planning, designing, launching with and carrying the Centaur upper stage to the moon.

Strong, James M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 μg m−3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 μg m−3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions are key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Emission controls↗

NASA NTRS1991

Hydrogen peroxide and the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis

Possible pathways for the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis in the early reducing atmosphere of the earth are discussed. It is suggested that the abiotic production of atmospheric oxidants could have provided a mechanism by which locally oxidizing conditions were sustained within spatially confined habitats thus removing the available reductants and forcing photosynthetic organisms to utilize water (rather than ferrous or sulfide ions) as the electron donor. It is argued that atmospheric H2O2 played the key role in inducing oxygenic photosynthesis, because, as peroxide concentrations local environments increased, primitive organisms would not only be faced with a loss of a reductant, but would be also forced to develop a biochemical apparatus (such as catalase) that would protect them against the products of oxygenic photosynthesis. This scenario allows for the early evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis at the time when global conditions were still anaerobic.

Mckay, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Trends of Measured Climate Forcing Agents

The growth rate of climate forcing by measured greenhouse gases peaked near 1980 at almost 5 W/sq m per century. This growth rate has since declined to approximately equal to 3 W/sq m per century, largely because of cooperative international actions. We argue that trends can be reduced to the level needed for the moderate "alternative" climate scenario (approximately equal to 2 W/M2 per century for the next 50 years) by means of concerted actions that have other benefits, but the forcing reductions are not automatic "co-benefits" of actions that slow CO2 emissions. Current trends of climate forcings by aerosols remain very uncertain. Nevertheless, practical constraints on changes in emission levels suggest that global warming at a rate + 0.15 +/- 0.05 C per decade will occur over the next several decades.

Hansen, James E.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Damage Simulation in Composite Materials: Why It Matters and What Is Happening Currently at NASA in This Area

Use of lightweight composite materials in space and aircraft structure designs is often challenging due to high costs associated with structural certification. Of primary concern in the use of composite structures is durability and damage tolerance. This concern is due to the inherent susceptibility of composite materials to both fabrication and service induced flaws. Due to a lack of general industry accepted analysis tools applicable to composites damage simulation, a certification procedure relies almost entirely on testing. It is this reliance on testing, especially compared to structures comprised of legacy metallic materials where damage simulation tools are available, that can drive costs for using composite materials in aerospace structures. The observation that use of composites can be expensive due to testing requirements is not new and as such, research on analysis tools for simulating damage in composite structures has been occurring for several decades. A convenient approach many researchers/model-developers in this area have taken is to select a specific problem relevant to aerospace structural certification and develop a model that is accurate within that scope. Some examples are open hole tension tests, compression after impact tests, low-velocity impact, damage tolerance of an embedded flaw, and fatigue crack growth to name a few. Based on the premise that running analyses is cheaper than running tests, one motivation that many researchers in this area have is that if generally applicable and reliable damage simulation tools were available the dependence on certification testing could be lessened thereby reducing overall design cost. It is generally accepted that simulation tools if applied in this manner would still need to be thoroughly validated and that composite testing will never be completely replaced by analysis. Research and development is currently occurring at NASA to create numerical damage simulation tools applicable to damage in composites. The Advanced Composites Project (ACP) at NASA Langley has supported the development of composites damage simulation tools in a consortium of aerospace companies with a goal of reducing the certification time of a commercial aircraft by 30%. And while the scope of ACP does not include spacecraft, much of the methodology and simulation capabilities can apply to spacecraft certification in the Space Launch System and Orion programs as well. Some specific applications of composite damage simulation models in a certification program are (1) evaluation of damage during service when maintenance may be difficult or impossible, (2) a tool for early design iterations, (3) gaining insight into a particular damage process and applying this insight towards a test coupon or structural design, and (4) analysis of damage scenarios that are difficult or impossible to recreate in a test. As analysis capabilities improve, these applications and more will become realized resulting in a reduction in cost for use of composites in aerospace vehicles. NASA is engaged in this process from both research and application perspectives. In addition to the background information discussed previously, this presentation covers a look at recent research at NASA in this area and some current/potential applications in the Orion program.

McElroy, Mack↗

NASA NTRS2012

Planetary Protection Concerns During Pre-Launch Radioisotope Power System Final Integration Activities

The Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) is a next-generation radioisotope-based power system that is currently being developed as an alternative to the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG). Power sources such as these may be needed for proposed missions to solar system planets and bodies that have challenging Planetary Protection (PP) requirements (e.g. Mars, Europa, Enceladus) that may support NASA s search for life, remnants of past life, and the precursors of life. One concern is that the heat from the ASRG could potentially create a region in which liquid water may occur. As advised by the NASA Planetary Protection Officer, when deploying an ASRG to Mars, the current COSPAR/NASA PP policy should be followed for Category IVc mission. Thus, sterilization processing of the ASRG to achieve bioburden reduction would be essential to meet the Planetary Protection requirements. Due to thermal constraints and associated low temperature limits of elements of the ASRG, vapor hydrogen peroxide (VHP) was suggested as a candidate alternative sterilization process to complement dry heat microbial reduction (DHMR) for the assembled ASRG. The following proposed sterilization plan for the ASRG anticipates a mission Category IVc level of cleanliness. This plan provides a scenario in which VHP is used as the final sterilization process. Keywords: Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), Planetary Protection (PP), Vapor hydrogen peroxide (VHP) sterilization.

Chen, Fei↗

NASA NTRS2018

Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields Under Climate Change

A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.

Basso, B.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗