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At least 109 records · Page 6

Validation of Mean Absolute Sea Level of the North Atlantic obtained from Drifter, Altimetry and Wind Data

Mean absolute sea level reflects the deviation of the Ocean surface from geoid due to the ocean currents and is an important characteristic of the dynamical state of the ocean. Values of its spatial variations (order of 1 m) are generally much smaller than deviations of the geoid shape from ellipsoid (order of 100 m) that makes the derivation of the absolute mean sea level a difficult task for gravity and satellite altimetry observations. Technique used by Niiler et al. for computation of the absolute mean sea level in the Kuroshio Extension was then developed into more general method and applied by Niiler et al. (2003b) to the global Ocean. The method is based on the consideration of balance of horizontal momentum.

Maximenko, Nikolai A.↗

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh↗

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sealevel rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.

thermosteric sea-level change↗

Sea Level Rise in the Samoan Islands Escalated by Viscoelastic Relaxation After the 2009 Samoa-Tonga Earthquake

The Samoan islands are an archipelago hosting a quarter million people mostly residing inthree major islands, Savai'i and Upolu (Samoa), and Tutuila (American Samoa). The islands haveexperienced sea level rise by 2-3 mm/year during the last half century. The rate, however, has dramaticallyincreased following the Mw 8.1 SamoaTonga earthquake doublet (megathrust + normal faulting) inSeptember 2009. Since the earthquake, we found largescale gravity increase (0.5 Gal/year) around theislands and ongoing subsidence (8-16 mm/year) of the islands from our analysis of Gravity Recovery AndClimate Experiment gravity and GPS displacement data. The postseismic horizontal displacement is faster inSamoa, while the postseismic subsidence rate is considerably larger in American Samoa. The analysis oflocal tide gauge records and satellite altimeter data also identified that the relative sea level rise becomesfaster by 7-9 mm/year in American Samoa than Samoa. A simple viscoelastic model with a Maxwellviscosity of 2–3×10(exp 18) Pa s for the asthenosphere explained postseismic deformation at nearby GPS sites aswell as Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment gravity change. It is found that the constructiveinterference of viscoelastic relaxation from both megathrust and normal faulting has intensified thepostseismic subsidence at American Samoa, causing ~5 times faster sea level rise than the global average.Our model indicates that this trend is likely to continue for decades and result in sea level rise of 30-40 cm,which is independent of and in addition to anticipated climaterelated sea level rise. It will worsen coastalflooding on the islands leading to regular nuisance flooding.

Han, Shin-Chan↗

Continuous assimilation of Geosat altimetric sea level observations into a numerical synoptic ocean model of the California Current

The Geosat altimetric sea level observations for the period from January to December 1987 were continuously assimilated into a realistic wind-driven numerical synoptic ocean model of the California Current in order to evaluate the effectiveness of using a realistic synoptic ocean model for interpolating (dynamically) real altimetric sea level observations onto a regular grid. The accuracy of dynamical interpolation was tested by comparing the gridded sea level residuals to ones estimated from in situ observations (by expendable bathythermographs) collected in the California Current region during the same period. The comparison yielded nearly exact agreement at low frequency (i.e., semiannual cycle), but less agreement on month-to-month time scales of variability, possibly due to the unfiltered nature of the in situ estimates.

White, Warren B.↗

Joint Projections of US East Coast Sea Level and Storm Surge

Future coastal flood risk will be strongly influenced by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. These two factors are generally considered independently. Here, we assess twenty-first century changes in the coastal hazard for the US East Coast using a flood index (FI) that accounts for changes in flood duration and magnitude driven by SLR and changes in power dissipation index (PDI, an integrated measure of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration). Sea-level rise and PDI are derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations of 15 atmosphere- ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). By 2080-2099, projected changes in the FI relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range 4-75 times higher for RCP 2.6 and 35-350 times higher for RCP 8.5. High-end Fl projections are driven by three AOGCMs that project the largest increases in SLR, PDI and upper ocean temperatures. Changes in PDI are particularly influential if their intra-model correlation with SLR is included, increasing the RCP 8.5 90th percentile FI by a further 25%. Sea-level rise from other, possibly correlated, climate processes (for example, ice sheet and glacier mass changes) will further increase coastal flood risk and should be accounted for in comprehensive assessments.

cyclones↗

Projections of Future Sea Level Contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: Challenges Beyond Dynamical Ice Sheet Modeling

As Earth's climate warms, rising sea levels are becoming a great concern. Providing substantiated and well-informed guidance on the amount and rate of future sea level rise is important, but remains challenging. Observations of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets-Earth's largest freshwater reservoirs-reveal their ongoing, rapid, and complex changes in response to an evolving climate. The improved understanding of ice sheet behavior resulting from observations is driving the development of ice sheet models, and is allowing better simulation of past, present, and future ice sheet evolution. However, insight into future changes requires a better understanding of how ice sheets interact with other components of the Earth system and associated feedbacks. As climate models start to include dynamical ice sheet components, our understanding of such interactions and the feedback mechanisms will advance. These new developments in ice sheet modeling and their implementation in climate models are timely, as observations indicate an accelerating contribution of ice sheets to sea level rise.

ice sheet model↗

Sea-Level Flight Demonstration and Altitude Characterization of a LO2/LCH4 Based Accent Propulsion Lander

A 1,500 lbf thrust-class liquid oxygen (LO2)/Liquid Methane (LCH4) rocket engine was developed and tested at both sea-level and simulated altitude conditions. The engine was fabricated by Armadillo Aerospace (AA) in collaboration with NASA Johnson Space Center. Sea level testing was conducted at Armadillo Aerospace facilities at Caddo Mills, TX. Sea-level tests were conducted using both a static horizontal test bed and a vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) test bed capable of lift-off and hover-flight in low atmosphere conditions. The vertical test bed configuration is capable of throttling the engine valves to enable liftoff and hover-flight. Simulated altitude vacuum testing was conducted at NASA Johnson Space Center White Sands Test Facility (WSTF), which is capable of providing altitude simulation greater than 120,000 ft equivalent. The engine tests demonstrated ignition using two different methods, a gas-torch and a pyrotechnic igniter. Both gas torch and pyrotechnic ignition were demonstrated at both sea-level and vacuum conditions. The rocket engine was designed to be configured with three different nozzle configurations, including a dual-bell nozzle geometry. Dual-bell nozzle tests were conducted at WSTF and engine performance data was achieved at both ambient pressure and simulated altitude conditions. Dual-bell nozzle performance data was achieved over a range of altitude conditions from 90,000 ft to 50,000 ft altitude. Thrust and propellant mass flow rates were measured in the tests for specific impulse (Isp) and C* calculations.

Collins, Jacob↗

Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County

Presentation by Cristina Milesi, First Author, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA at the "Meeting the Challenge of Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County" on June 19, 2005 Santa Clara County, bordering with the southern portion of the San Francisco Bay, is highly vulnerable to flooding and to sea level rise (SLR). In this presentation, the latest sea level rise projections for the San Francisco Bay will be discussed in the context of extreme water height frequency and extent of flooding vulnerability. I will also present preliminary estimations of levee requirements and possible mitigation through tidal restoration of existing salt ponds. The examples will draw mainly from the work done by the NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators at NASA Ames.

Sea Level↗

Global sea level trend in the past century

Data derived from tide-gauge stations throughout the world indicate that the mean sea level rose by about 12 centimeters in the past century. The sea level change has a high correlation with the trend of global surface air temperature. A large part of the sea level rise can be accounted for in terms of the thermal expansion of the upper layers of the ocean. The results also represent weak indirect evidence for a net melting of the continental ice sheets.

Gornitz, V.↗

Measuring precise sea level from a buoy using the Global Positioning System

The feasibility of using the Global Positioning System (GPS) for accurate sea surface positioning was examined. An experiment was conducted on the Scripps pier at La Jolla, California from December 13-15, 1989. A GPS-equipped buoy was deployed about 100 m off the pier. Two fixed reference GPS receivers, located on the pier and about 80 km away on Monument Peak, were used to estimate the relative position of the floater. Kinematic GPS processing software, developed at the National Geodetic Survey, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's GPS Infrared Processing System software were used to determine the floater position relative to land-fixing receivers. Calculations were made of sea level and ocean wave spectra from GPS measurements. It is found that the GPS sea level for the short 100 m baseline agrees with the PPT sea level at the 1 cm level and has an rms variation of 5 mm over a period of 4 hours.

Rocken, Christian↗

Tipping points of Mississippi Delta marshes due to accelerated sea-level rise

Coastal marshes are threatened by relative sea-level (RSL) rise, yet recent studies predict marsh survival even under the high rates of RSL rise expected later in this century. However, because these studies are mostly based on short-term records, uncertainty persists about the longer-term vulnerability of coastal marshes. We present an 8500-year-long marsh record from the Mississippi Delta, showing that at rates of RSL rise exceeding 6 to 9 mm year –1 , marsh conversion into open water occurs in about 50 years. At rates of RSL rise exceeding ~3 mm year –1 , marsh drowning occurs within a few centuries. Because present-day rates of global sea-level rise already surpass this rate, submergence of the remaining ~15,000 km 2 of marshland in coastal Louisiana is probably inevitable. RSL-driven tipping points for marsh drowning vary geographically, and those for the Mississippi Delta may be lower than elsewhere. Nevertheless, our findings highlight the need for consideration of longer time windows in determining the vulnerability of coastal marshes worldwide.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Composition of primary cosmic rays near the bend from a study of hadrons in air showers at sea level

Data on hadrons in air showers arriving at sea level were studied to find sensitivity to primary cosmic ray composition. The rate of showers which satisfy minimum shower density and hadron energy requirements as well as the rate of showers containing hadrons delayed with respect to the electron shower front are compared to Monte Carlo simulations. The data on the rate of total triggers and delayed hadrons are compared to predicted rates for two models of primary composition. The data are consistent with models which require an increasing heavy nuclei fraction near 10 to the 15th power eV. The spectra which are consistent with the observed rate are also compared to the observed shower size spectrum at sea level and mountain level.

Mincer, A. I.↗

Ten metre global sea-level change associated with South Atlantic Aptian salt deposition

Catastrophic filling of the kind of subsea-level depression commonly formed during ocean opening and ocean closing is the only mechanism, other than glacial eustacy, capable of rapidly lowering sea level. Aptian evaporites overlying oceanic crust on both sides of the South Atlantic between the Walvis Ridge and the Niger Delta were deposited in such a basin by repeated spilling of ocean water. The final flooding of the South Atlantic north of the Walvis Ridge extracted about 14 x 10 to the 8th cu km of sea water from the world ocean and effected about 10 m of sea-level lowering. It is speculated that the middle Aptian unconformity, which is one of the more prominent world-wide unconformities, is associated with this sea-level drop of about 10 m. A corollary of this interpretation is that if the catastrophic sea-level lowerings during the Mesozoic era had amplitudes substantially greater than 10 m, then a glacial mechanism to explain them would seem inescapable although the stratigraphic record has not yet yielded any evidence of such glaciation.

Burke, Kevin↗

Sediment Starvation Destroys New York City Marshes' Resistance to Sea Level Rise

New York City (NYC) is representative of many vulnerable coastal urban populations, infrastructures, and economies threatened by global sea level rise. The steady loss of marshes in NYC's Jamaica Bay is typical of many urban estuaries worldwide. Essential to the restoration and preservation of these key wetlands is an understanding of their sedimentation. Here we present a reconstruction of the history of mineral and organic sediment fluxes in Jamaica Bay marshes over three centuries, using a combination of density measurements and a detailed accretion model. Accretion rate is calculated using historical land use and pollution markers, through a wide variety of sediment core analyses including geochemical, isotopic, and paleobotanical analyses. We find that, since 1800 CE, urban development dramatically reduced the input of marsh stabilizing mineral sediment. However, as mineral flux decreased, organic matter flux increased. While this organic accumulation increase allowed vertical accumulation to outpace sea level, reduced mineral content causes structural weakness and edge failure. Marsh integrity now requires mineral sediment addition to both marshes and subsurface channels and borrow pits, a solution applicable to drowning estuaries worldwide. Integration of marsh mineral/organic accretion history with modeling provides parameters for marsh preservation at specific locales with sea level rise.

organic flux↗

Seasonal variability in global sea level observed with Geosat altimetry

Time changes in global mesoscale sea level variances were observed with satellite altimetry between November 1986 and March 1988, showing significant, geographically coherent seasonal patterns. The NE Pacific and NE Atlantic variances show the most reliable patterns, higher than their yearly averages in both the fall and winter. The response to wind forcing appears as the major contributor to the NE Pacific and Atlantic signals; errors in the estimated inverse barometer response due to errors in atmospheric pressure, residual orbit errors, and errors in sea state bias are evaluated and found to be negligible contributors to this particular signal. The equatorial regions also show significant seasonal patterns, but the uncertainties in the wet tropospheric correction prevent definitive conclusions. The western boundary current changes are very large but not statistically significant. Estimates of the regression coefficient between sea level and significant wave height, an estimate of the sea state bias correction, range between 2.3 and 2.9 percent and vary with the type of orbit correction applied.

Zlotnicki, V.↗

Accelerated sea-level rise is suppressing CO 2 stimulation of tidal marsh productivity: A 33-year study

Accelerating relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is threatening coastal wetlands. However, rising CO 2 concentrations may also stimulate carbon sequestration and vertical accretion, counterbalancing RSLR. A coastal wetland dominated by a C 3 plant species was exposed to ambient and elevated levels of CO 2 in situ from 1987 to 2019 during which time ambient CO 2 concentration increased 18% and sea level rose 23 cm. Plant production did not increase in response to gradually rising ambient CO 2 concentration during this period. Elevated CO 2 increased shoot production relative to ambient CO 2 for the first two decades, but from 2005 to 2019, elevated CO 2 stimulation of production was diminished. The decline coincided with increases in relative sea level above a threshold that hindered root productivity. While elevated CO 2 stimulation of elevation gain has the potential to moderate the negative impacts of RSLR on tidal wetland productivity, benefits for coastal wetland resilience will diminish in the long term as rates of RSLR accelerate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the Impact of Vertical Land Motion on Twentieth Century Global Mean Sea Level Estimates

Near-global and continuous measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of global mean sea level in the past two decades. Extending these estimates further into the past is a challenge using the historical tide gauge records. Not only is sampling nonuniform in both space and time, but tide gauges are also affected by vertical land motion (VLM) that creates a relative sea level change not representative of ocean variability. To allow for comparisons to the satellite altimetry estimated global mean sea level (GMSL), typically the tide gauges are corrected using glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. This approach, however, does not correct other sources of VLM that remain in the tide gauge record. Here we compare Global Positioning System (GPS) VLM estimates at the tide gauge locations to VLM estimates from GIA models, and assess the influence of non-GIA-related VLM on GMSL estimates. We find that the tide gauges, on average, are experiencing positive VLM (i.e., uplift) after removing the known effect of GIA, resulting in an increase of 0.2460.08 mm yr21 in GMSL trend estimates from 1900 to present when using GPS-based corrections. While this result is likely dependent on the subset of tide gauges used and the actual corrections used, it does suggest that non-GIA VLM plays a significant role in twentieth century estimates of GMSL. Given the relatively short GPS records used to obtain these VLM estimates, we also estimate the uncertainty in the GMSL trend that results from limited knowledge of non-GIA-related VLM.

Hamlington, B. D.↗