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Model Formulations: Market clearing models, market design specifications, and dispatch simulation

This document provides various model formulations that will be implemented for the Energy Storage Participation Algorithm pilot competition (ESPA-Comp). This competition will assess the performance of different storage offer algorithms in terms of their ability to maximize the value of storage resources participating under various market designs that vary in the range of complexity of possible storage offers. The model formulations include a general market clearing optimization model and specification to implement it in various market designs. We provide specifications for three market designs to be tested in ESPA-Comp, which we call the two-settlement, multi-settlement, and rolling horizon forward markets. The market designs include different trading frequencies and offer formats. Storage resources participating in the market are provided with primitive values for the resource’s physical capabilities, and they are provided with a storage offer format that their algorithms will be tasked with populating. A detailed physical model is used to assess each storage resource’s ability to maintain its scheduled dispatch according to its state-of-charge, operating temperature, and power conversion efficiency.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Energy Storage Participation Algorithm Competition Overview: Market simulation, divisions, stages, storage attributes, and scoring

The Energy Storage Participation Algorithm Competition (ESPA-Comp) aims to assess the performance of participants’ battery storage offer algorithms on their ability to maximize the value of battery storage resources under three different market designs: two-settlement, multi-settlement, and rolling horizon forward markets. This document describes the overall design of the competition at a high level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Comprehensive Comparison of Building Height Products at a Global Level

The built environment continues to expand due to increasing human populations with some projections indicating additional growth of 2.5 billion persons by 2050. Buildings are a key component of the built environment and information on building height and urban morphology in general can help to better understand and address a host of development and urban planning issues including energy consumption, urbanization, population dynamics, urban heat islands, environmental degradation, and others. To date, several approaches have been developed to address the need for mapping building height at scale. These approaches can be grouped into two main categories: 1) directly measure height from remote sensing products or 2) indirectly estimate height from footprint morphology features at the building-by-building level. Due to a number of these global height datasets now being available for consumption and use across domains, there is a critical need to understand the differences displayed between these products and how the use of these may influence the outcome when applied. In this analysis, we compare and evaluate 5 global building height datasets: Global Human Settlement, World Settlement Footprint 3D, Global Building Morphology dataset, three-dimensional Global Building Footprints, and an approach developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Our analysis shows that, across 5 cities at a global scale with high-quality building height reference data, the approach developed by ORNL of inferring height at the building-by-building level is more accurate and consistent. This was evidenced by the ORNL product improving upon the baseline in all 5 cities, the only product to do so. These findings will aid researchers in choosing a global building height product that best meets their needs and provides global availability, consistency, and accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Investigating the Influence of River Geomorphology on Human Presence Using Night Light Data: A Case Study in the Indus Basin

Human settlements have historically thrived near rivers due to enhanced navigation and trade, and the availability of water supply and resources. The use of night light data, representing economic activities, provides a novel approach to studying the interactions between human activity and rivers over time. Here, we use the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) stable night light data from 2000 to 2013 as a proxy for human presence and activities to quantify the statistical relationships between night light presence and intensity in the Indus Basin, Asia. We test how these data are affected by proximity to trunk channels and by channel type (single/multi-thread) in the study area. We find that night light presence is enhanced by 26% within a 0 to 5 km proximity range of the Indus River and its tributaries, relative to the basin as a whole. We interpret this to represent increased human presence and activity within this zone. However, the mean intensity is lower near the river and higher away from the river, signifying denser settlements, such as towns and cities, which are preferentially located away from the Indus and its tributaries. Moreover, the enhancement of lit pixels signifying human presence and activities is increased by 18% near single-thread sections of the Indus River, compared to segments of the Indus displaying multi-thread morphologies. We suggest that this is due to the enhanced stability of single-threaded channels, relative to mobile multi-threaded channel reaches. This study demonstrates how night lights are an important tool in studying the relationship between human presence and river dynamics in large catchments such as the Indus, and we suggest that these data will have an important role in assessing differential flood spatial and social vulnerability at a regional scale.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The ideas of K. E. Tsiolkovsky on orbital space stations

The concepts presented by K. E. Tsiolkovsky concerning the construction of orbital space stations are cited. Tsiolkovsky, a Russian scientist and founder of astronautics, substantiated these ideas at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th century. Considered settlements outside the earth were proposed feasible using solar energy. The substance of numerous asteroids would be used as construction materials for space settlements and rockets. Extraordinary farsightedness was shown by Tsiolkovsky when comparisons of his projects with those of modern orbital stations are made.

Kolchenko, I. A.↗

Application of the Landsat Thematic Mapper to the identification of potentially active volcanoes in the Central Andes

A systematic study of the potentially active volcanoes in the Central Andes (14 deg S to 28 deg S) was carried out on the basis of Landsat Thematic Mapper images which provided consistent coverage of the area. More than 60 major volcanoes were identified as potentially active, as compared to 16 that are listed in the Catalog of Active Volcanoes of the World (Casertano, 1963; Hantke and Parodi, 1966). Most of these volcanoes are large (up to 6000 m in height) composite cones. Some of them could threaten nearby settlements, especially those in southern Peru, where the volcanoes rise above deep canyons with settlements along them.

Francis, P. W.↗

Ilmenite-rich pyroclastic deposits - An ideal lunar resource

With a view of investigating possible economic benefits that a permanent lunar settlement might provide to the near-earth space infrastructures, consideration was given to the ilmenite-rich pyroclastic deposits as sources of oxygen (for use as a propellant) and He-3 (for nuclear fusion fuel). This paper demonstrates that ilmenite-rich pyroclastic deposits would be excellent sources of a wide variety of valuable elements besides O and He-3, including Fe, Ti, H2, N, C, S, Cu, Zn, Cd, Bi, and Pb. It is shown that several ilmenite-rich pyroclastic deposits of regional extent exist on the lunar surface. The suitability of regional pyroclastic deposits for lunar mining operations, construction activities, and the establishment of permanent lunar settlements is examined.

Hawke, B. R.↗

Foundation design for a radio telescope on the moon

A foundation design for a 122 m diameter dish-type radio telescope on the moon is presented. The 1.2 m wide and 43 m diameter circular strip footing was analyzed for settlement due to compaction during installation and also for total and differential settlement under in-service laods. An axisymmetrical finite element code of the uppdated Lagrangian formulation was used. Interface slip elements were also used. The nonlinear hyperbolic stress-strain model parameters for the regolith were derived from load-deflection characteristics of astronauts' bootprints and the Rover tracks.

Chua, Koon Meng↗

Evolving concepts of lunar architecture: The potential of subselene development

In view of the superior environmental and operational conditions that are thought to exist in lava tubes, popular visions of permanent settlements built upon the lunar surface may prove to be entirely romantic. The factors that will ultimately come together to determine the design of a lunar base are complex and interrelated, and they call for a radical architectural solution. Whether lunar surface-deployed superstructures can answer these issues is called into question. One particularly troublesome concern in any lunar base design is the need for vast amounts of space, and the ability of man-made structures to provide such volumes in a reliable pressurized habitat is doubtful. An examination of several key environmental design issues suggests that the alternative mode of subselene development may offer the best opportunity for an enduring and humane settlement.

Daga, Andrew W.↗

Selenia: A habitability study for the development of a third generation lunar base

When Apollo astronauts landed on the Moon, the first generation of lunar bases was established. They consisted essentially of a lunar module and related hardware capable of housing two astronauts for not more than several days. Second generation lunar bases are being developed, and further infrastructure, such as space station, orbital transfer, and reusable lander vehicles will be necessary, as prolonged stay on the Moon is required for exploration, research, and construction for the establishment of a permanent human settlement there. Human life in these habitats could be sustained for months, dependent on a continual flow of life-support supplies from Earth. Third-generation lunar bases will come into being as self sufficiency of human settlements becomes feasible. Regeneration of water, oxygen production, and development of indigenous construction materials from lunar resources will be necessary. Greenhouses will grow food supplies in engineered biospheres. Assured protection from solar flares and cosmic radiation must be provided, as well as provision for survival under meteor showers, or the threat of meteorite impact. All these seem to be possible within the second decade of the next century. Thus, the builders of Selenia, the first of the third-generation lunar bases are born today. During the last two years students from the School of Architecture of the University of Puerto Rico have studied the problems that relate to habitability for prolonged stay in extraterrestrial space. An orbital personnel transport to Mars developed originally by the Aerospace Engineering Department of the University of Michigan was investigated and habitability criteria for evaluation of human space habitats were proposed. An important finding from that study was that the necessary rotational diameter of the vessel has to be on the order of two kilometers to ensure comfort for humans under the artificial gravity conditions necessary to maintain physiological well being of passengers, beyond the level of mere survival.

Source record↗

Landscape Archeology: Remote Sensing Investigation of the Ancient Maya in the Peten Rainforest of Northern Guatemala

Through the use of airborne and satellite imagery we are improving our ability to investigate ancient Maya settlement, subsistence, and landscape modification in this dense forest region. Today the area is threatened by encroaching settlement and deforestation. However, it was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared for unknown reasons in the 9th century AD. At the time of their collapse they had attained one of the highest population densities in human history. How the Maya were able to successfully manage water and feed this dense population is not well understood at this time. A NASA-funded project used remote sensing technology to investigate large seasonal swamps (bajos) that make up 40 percent of the landscape. Through the use of remote sensing, ancient Maya features such as sites, roadways, canals and water reservoirs have been detected and verified through ground reconnaissance. The results of this preliminary research cast new light on the adaptation of the ancient Maya to their environment. Microenvironmental variation within the wetlands was elucidated and the different vegetation associations identified in the satellite imagery. More than 70 new archeological sites within and at the edges of the bajo were mapped and tested. Modification of the landscape by the Maya in the form of dams and reservoirs in the Holmul River and its tributaries and possible drainage canals in bajos was demonstrated. The use of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM), one-meter IKONOS satellite imagery, as well as high resolution airborne STAR-3i radar imagery--2.5 meter backscatter/10 meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM)--are opening new possibilities for understanding how a civilization was able to survive for centuries upon a karat topographic landscape. This understanding is critical for the current population that is currently experiencing rapid population growth and destroying the landscape through nontraditional farming and grazing techniques, resulting in socioeconomic problems.

Sever, Thomas L.↗

Modeling Forest Understory Fires in an Eastern Amazonian Landscape

Forest understory fires are an increasingly important cause of forest impoverishment in Ammonia, but little is known of the landscape characteristics and climatic phenomena that determine their occurrence. We developed empirical functions relating the occurrence of understory fires to landscape features near Paragominas, a 35- yr-old ranching and logging center in eastern Ammonia. An historical sequence of maps of forest understory fire was created based on field interviews With local farmers and Landsat TM images. Several landscape features that might explain spatial variations in the occurrence of understory fires were also mapped and co-registered for each of the sample dates, including: forest fragment size and shape, forest impoverishment through logging and understory fires, source of ignition (settlements and charcoal pits), roads, forest edges, and others. The spatial relationship between forest understory fire and each landscape characteristic was tested by regression analyses. Fire probability models were then developed for various combinations of landscape characteristics. The analyses were conducted separately for years of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are associated with severe drought in eastern Amazonia, and non-ENS0 years. Most (91 %) of the forest area that burned during the 10-yr sequence caught fire during ENSO years, when severe drought may have increased both forest flammability and the escape of agricultural management fires. Forest understory fires were associated with forest edges, as reported in previous studies from Ammonia. But the strongest predictor of forest fire was the percentage of the forest fragment that had been previously logged or burned. Forest fragment size, distance to charcoal pits, distance to agricultural settlement, proximity to forest edge, and distance to roads were also correlated with forest understory fire. Logistic regression models using information on fragment degradation and distance to ignition sources accurately predicted the location of lss than 80% of the forest fires observed during the ENSO event of 1997- 1998. In this Amazon landscape, forest understory fire is a complex function of several variables that influence both the flammability and ignition exposure of the forest.

Alencar, A. A. C.↗

Remote Sensing Assessment of Lunar Resources: We Know Where to Go to Find What We Need

The utilization of space resources is necessary to not only foster the growth of human activities in space, but is essential to the President s vision of a "sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond." The distribution of resources will shape planning permanent settlements by affecting decisions about where to locate a settlement. Mapping the location of such resources, however, is not the limiting factor in selecting a site for a lunar base. It is indecision about which resources to use that leaves the location uncertain. A wealth of remotely sensed data exists that can be used to identify targets for future detailed exploration. Thus, the future of space resource utilization pre-dominantly rests upon developing a strategy for resource exploration and efficient methods of extraction.

Gillis, J. J.↗

A Strategic Roadmap to Centauri

This paper discusses the connectivity between in-space propulsion and in-space fabrication/repair and is based upon a workshop presentation by Les Johnson, manager of the In-Space Propulsion (ISP) Technology Project at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Ala.. Technologies under study by ISP include aerocapture, advanced solar-electric propulsion, solar-thermal propulsion, advanced chemical propulsion, tethers and solar-photon sails. These propulsion systems are all approaching technology readiness levels (TRLs) at which they can be considered for application in space-science and exploration missions. Historically, human frontiers have expanded as people have learned to live off the land in new environments and to exploit local resorces. With this expansion, frontier settlements have required development of transportation improvements to carry tools and manufactured products to and from the frontier. It is demonstrated how ISP technologies will assist in the development of the solar-system frontier. In-space fabrication and repair will both require and assist the development of ISP propulsion systems, whether humans choose to settle planetary surfaces or to exploit resources of small Solar System bodies. As was true for successful terrestrial pioneers, in-space settlement and exploitation will require sophisticated surveys of inner and outer Solar System objects. ISP technologies will contribute to the success of these surveys, as well as to the efforts to retrieve Solar System resources. In a similar fashion, the utility of ISP products will be greatly enhanced by the technologies of in-space repair and fabrication. As in-space propulsion, fabrication and repair develop, human civilization may expand well beyond the Earth. In the future, small human communities (preceded by robotic explorers) may utilize these techniques to set sail f or the nearest stars.

Johnson, Les↗

Projected Regional Climate in 2025 Due to Urban Growth

By 2025, 60 to 80 percent of the world s population will live in urban environments. Additionally, the following facts published by the United Nations further illustrates how cities will evolve in the future. Urban areas in the developing world are growing very rapidly. The urban growth rate will continue to be particularly rapid in the urban areas of less developed regions, averaging 2.4 per cent per year during 2000-2030, consistent with a doubling time of 29 years. The urbanization process will continue worldwide. The concentration of population in cities is expected to continue so that, by 2030, 84 percent of the inhabitants of more developed countries will be urban dwellers. Urbanization impacts the whole hierarchy of human settlements. In 2000,24.8 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements with fewer than 500,000 inhabitants and by 2015 that proportion will likely rise to 27.1 per cent.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Frontiers of Life Sciences: The Human Exploration of the Moon and Mars

The rapid development of the productive processes after World War II extended human settlements into new ecological niches. Advances in Life Sciences played a decisive role supporting the establishment of human presence in areas of the planet where human life could have not existed otherwise. The evolution of life support systems, and the fabrication of new materials and technologies has enabled humans to inhabit Polar Regions, ocean surfaces and depths; and to leave Earth and occupy Low Earth Orbit. By the end of the 20 th Century, stations in the Antarctic and Arctic, off shore oil platforms, submarines, and space stations had become the ultimate demonstration of human ability to engineer habitats at Earth extreme environments and outer space. As we enter the 21st Century, the next development of human settlements will occur through the exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond. The major risks of space exploration derive from long exposure of humans and other life systems to radiation, microgravity, isolation and confinement, dependence on artificial life support systems, and unknown effects (e.g., altered magnetic fields, ultrahigh vacuum on bacteria, fungi, etc.). Countermeasures will require a complete characterization of human and other biological systems adaptation processes. To sustain life in transit and on the surface of the Moon and Mars will require a balance of spacecraft, cargo, astronaut crews, and the use of in situ resources. Limitations on the number of crewmembers, payloads, and the barrenness of the terrain require a novel design for the capabilities needed in transit and at exploration outpost sites. The planned destinations have resources that may be accessed to produce materials, food, shelter, power, and to provide an environment compatible with successful occupation of longterm exploration sites. Once more, the advancements of Life Sciences will be essential for the design of interplanetary voyages and planetary surface operations. This presentation delineates the role of Life Sciences and its frontiers, especially Cell Science, in the context of human exploration. Life support systems, food production, and medical equipment encompass many of vital aspects related to the new vision for NASA.

North, Regina M.↗

Plans and Considerations for the Exploration of Space

The Mars Settlement Design Competition is a program for high school students and teachers to experience the process of mission and hardware design. It provides a top level view into how NASA plans to explore space. I will be involved with all three days of this competition. On Friday I plan to give two presentations, one to the employees of White Sands Test Facility and one to students and teachers. On Saturday, I will have a question and answer session with some of the teachers participating in the workshop. Sunday I will serve as one of the judges that will review the students projects created over the weekend. The main emphasis of my talk will focus on exploring the possibilities of the future of space exploration. I will discuss the Mars Reference Mission 3.0, as well as some of the current robotic missions being sent to Mars. Next, I will present a business model perfected by Hum Mandell, showing how the public, private, and commercial sectors all play a major role in sending humans to Mars. I will also discuss the work of the Integrated Design Team at JSC and how that working together approach is key for a successful design. Finally, I will present that the question of how humans can reach out beyond low earth orbit and place permanent settlements on Mars is really a function of the imagination of those who intend on going there.

Derkowski, Brian J.↗

Human Lunar Destiny: Past, Present, and Future

This paper offers conceptual strategy and rationale for returning astronauts to the moon. NASA's historic Apollo program enabled humans to make the first expeditionary voyages to the moon and to gather and return samples back to the earth for further study. To continue exploration of the moon within the next ten to fifteen years, one possible mission concept for returning astronauts using existing launch vehicle infrastructure is presented. During these early lunar missions, expeditionary trips are made to geographical destinations and permanent outposts are established at the lunar south pole. As these missions continue, mining operations begin in an effort to learn how to live off the land. Over time, a burgeoning economy based on mining and scientific activity emerges with the formation of more accommodating settlements and surface infrastructure assets. As lunar activity advances, surface infrastructure assets grow and become more complex, lunar settlements and outposts are established across the globe, travel to and from the moon becomes common place, and commerce between earth and the moon develops and flourishes. Colonization and development of the moon is completed with the construction of underground cities and the establishment of a full range of political, religious, educational, and recreational institutions with a diverse population from all nations of the world. Finally, rationale for diversifying concentrations of humanity throughout earth's neighborhood and the greater solar system is presented.

Fletcher, David↗