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Image-based solar estimates

An example device is configured to determine, based on a sky image of a portion of sky over a power distribution network and using a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based image regression model, an estimated global horizontal irradiance (GHI) value and manage or control the power distribution network using the estimated GHI value. The device may also be configured to determine, based on GHI values and aggregate load values for at least a portion of the power distribution network, using a Bayesian Structural Time Series model, an estimated photovoltaic power output value for the at least a portion of the power distribution network. The device may manage or control the power distribution network using the estimated photovoltaic power output value.

Bernstein, Andrey↗

New Mission Concept Study: Energetic X-Ray Imaging Survey Telescope (EXIST)

This Report summarizes the activity carried out under the New Mission Concept (NMC) study for a mission to conduct a sensitive all-sky imaging survey in the hard x-ray (HX) band (approximately 10-600 keV). The Energetic X-ray Imaging Survey Telescope (EXIST) mission was originally proposed for this NMC study and was then subsequently proposed for a MIDEX mission as part of this study effort. Development of the EXIST (and related) concepts continues for a future flight proposal. The hard x-ray band (approximately 10-600 keV) is nearly the final band of the astronomical spectrum still without a sensitive imaging all-sky survey. This is despite the enormous potential of this band to address a wide range of fundamental and timely objectives - from the origin and physical mechanisms of cosmological gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) to the processes on strongly magnetic neutron stars that produce soft gamma-repeaters and bursting pulsars; from the study of active galactic nuclei (AGN) and quasars to the origin and evolution of the hard x-ray diffuse background; from the nature and number of black holes and neutron stars and the accretion processes onto them to the extreme non-thermal flares of normal stars; and from searches for expected diffuse (but relatively compact) nuclear line (Ti-44) emission in uncatalogued supernova remnants to diffuse non-thermal inverse Compton emission from galaxy clusters. A high sensitivity all-sky survey mission in the hard x-ray band, with imaging to both address source confusion and time-variable background radiations, is very much needed.

Source record↗

Coincident Aerosol and H2O Retrievals versus HSI Imager Field Campaign ReportH2O Retrievals versus HSI Imager Field Campaign Report

Two spectrally calibrated tarpaulins (tarps) were co-located at a fixed Global Positioning System (GPS) position on the gravel antenna field at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Their placement was timed to coincide with the overflight of a new hyperspectral imaging satellite. The intention was to provide an analysis of the data obtained, including the measured and retrieved spectral albedos for the calibration tarps. Subsequently, a full suite of retrieved values of H2O column, and the aerosol overburden, were to be compared to those determined by alternate SGP ground truth assets. To the extent possible, the down-looking cloud images would be assessed against the all-sky images. Because cloud contamination above a certain level precludes the inversion processing of the satellite data, coupled with infrequent targeting opportunities, clear-sky conditions were imposed. The SGP site was chosen not only as a target of opportunity for satellite validation, but as perhaps the best coincident field measurement site, as established by DOE’s ARM Facility. The satellite team had every expectation of using the information obtained from the SGP to improve the inversion products for all subsequent satellite images, including the cloud and radiative models and parameterizations and, thereby, the performance assessment for subsequent and historic image collections. Coordinating with the SGP onsite team, four visits, all in 2009, to the Central Facility occurred: • June 6-8 (successful exploratory visit to plan tarp placements, etc.) • July 18-24 (canceled because of forecast for heavy clouds) • Sep 9-12 (ground tarps placed, onset of clouds) • Nov 7-9 (visit ultimately canceled because of weather predictions). As noted, in each instance, any significant overcast prediction precluded image collection from the satellite. Given the long task-scheduling procedures (which were in place for each time period), coupled with other priorities and the satellite lifetime, no alternate SGP images could be obtained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Shallow Cumulus Macrophysical Properties at Midcontinental US Site: Integrated Multiyear Active and Passive Observations

Substantial difference between cloud amounts obtained from active and passive remote sensing has been documented by previous studies. The difference is typically attributed to two main factors: the different field-of-view (FOV) (first factor) and different sensitivity to cloud properties (second factor) of the active and passive ground-based instruments. The relative impact of these two main factors on shallow cumuli cloud amount is demonstrated in this study. The demonstration involves a new multi-year (2000-2017) product, which integrates both the active and passive remote sensing data collected at the mid-continental Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility. Cloud fraction (CF) obtained from the narrow-FOV lidar-radar observations and wide-FOV fractional sky cover (FSC) acquired from sky images are key components of the integrated product. Results of this study indicate that (1) CF tends to overestimate FSC and this overestimation can be large (~40% on average) even at extended temporal scales (several years) and (2) the observed overestimate is primarily due to different sensitivity of the active and passive remote sensing instruments to shallow cumuli, while the limited FOV of active remote sensing instruments plays a minor role in such overestimation.

ARM Active Remotely Sensed Clouds Locations (ARSCL↗

Shallow Cumulus (SHALLOWCUMULUS) Value-Added Product Report

Periods of shallow cumulus clouds are identified automatically at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory in order to help determine times of interest for Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) and Observation (LASSO) modeling efforts. This value-added data product (VAP) uses input from the Cloud Type (CLDTYPE) VAP (with cloud types determined from Active Remotely Sensed Cloud Locations [ARSCL] VAP cloud boundaries), the ceilometer, and the total sky imager (TSI). The data set uses an hourly temporal resolution and only classifies events as shallow cumulus when low clouds are detected for at least 1.5 hours and meet specified criteria for cloud occurrence and cloud fraction. In addition to time periods that contain just shallow cumulus, cases with overlying cirrus and a number of transitional cases (transitions to/from cirrus, stratus, and altocumulus/altostratus) are also identified.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stereo and Solar Cycle 24

The twin STEREO spacecrafi, launched in October 2006, are in heliocentric orbits near 4 AU with one spacecraft (Ahead) leading Earth in its orbit around the Sun and the other (Behind) trailing Earth. As viewed from the Sun, the STEREO spacecraft are continually separating from one another at about 45 degrees per year with Earth biseding the angle. At present, th@spaser=raft are a bit more than 45 degrees apart, thus they are able to each 'vie@ ground the limb's of the Sun by about 23 degrees, corresponding to about 1.75 days of solar rotation. Both spameraft contain an identical set of instruments including an extreme ultraviolet imager, two white light coronagraphs, tws all-sky imagers, a wide selection of energetic particle detectors, a magnetometer and a radio burst tracker. A snapshot of the real time data is continually broadcast to NOW-managed ground stations and this small stream of data is immediately sent to the STEREO Science Center and converted into useful space weather data within 5 minutes of ground receipt. The resulting images, particle, magnetometer and radio astronomy plots are available at ~ ~ j ~ g ~ ~ ~ i t , : gAs~ timqe~ co~n~ting ue~s ijnto~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ g ~ solar cycle 24, the separation angle becomes 90 degrees in early 2009 and 180 degrees in early 201 1 as the activity heads toward maximum. By the time of solar maximum, STEREO will provide for the first time a view of the entire Sun with the mronagraphs and e*reme ultraviolet instruments. This view wilt allow us to follow the evolution of active regions continuously and also detect new active regions long before they pose a space weather threat to Earth. The in situ instruments will be able to provide about 7 days advanced notice of co-rotating structures in the solar wind. During this same intewal near solar maximum, the wide-angle imagers on STEREB will both be ;able to view EarlCP-dirsted CMEs in their plane-oPsky. When combined with Eat-lhorbiting assets available at that time, it seems solar cycle 24 will mark a great increase in our ability to understand and predict space weather.

Kaise,r Michael L.↗

Cloud Mask Intercomparison eXercise (CMIX): An evaluation of cloud masking algorithms for Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2

Cloud cover is a major limiting factor in exploiting time-series data acquired by optical spaceborne remote sensing sensors. Multiple methods have been developed to address the problem of cloud detection in satellite imagery and a number of cloud masking algorithms have been developed for optical sensors but very few studies have carried out quantitative intercomparison of state-of-the-art methods in this domain. This paper summarizes results of the first Cloud Masking Intercomparison eXercise (CMIX) conducted within the Committee Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Working Group on Calibration & Validation (WGCV). CEOS is the forum for space agency coordination and cooperation on Earth observations, with activities organized under working groups. CMIX, as one such activity, is an international collaborative effort aimed at intercomparing cloud detection algorithms for moderate-spatial resolution (10–30 m) spaceborne optical sensors. The focus of CMIX is on open and free imagery acquired by the Landsat 8 (NASA/USGS) and Sentinel-2 (ESA) missions. Ten algorithms developed by nine teams from fourteen different organizations representing universities, research centers and industry, as well as space agencies (CNES, ESA, DLR, and NASA), are evaluated within the CMIX. Those algorithms vary in their approach and concepts utilized which were based on various spectral properties, spatial and temporal features, as well as machine learning methods. Algorithm outputs are evaluated against existing reference cloud mask datasets. Those datasets vary in sampling methods, geographical distribution, sample unit (points, polygons, full image labels), and generation approaches (experts, machine learning, sky images). Overall, the performance of algorithms varied depending on the reference dataset, which can be attributed to differences in how the reference datasets were produced. The algorithms were in good agreement for thick cloud detection, which were opaque and had lower uncertainties in their identification, in contrast to thin/semi-transparent clouds detection. Not only did CMIX allow identification of strengths and weaknesses of existing algorithms and potential areas of improvements, but also the problems associated with the existing reference datasets. The paper concludes with recommendations on generating new reference datasets, metrics, and an analysis framework to be further exploited and additional input datasets to be considered by future CMIX activities.

Sergii Skakun↗

Understanding the Response of Photosynthetic Metabolism in Tropical Forests to Seasonal Climate Variations

We propose a study focused on the basic question: What controls the response of photosynthesis in Amazonian forests to seasonal variations in climate? This question, despite its apparent simplicity, remains difficult for modern earth system models to answer, and is also the subject of continuing controversy in the remote-sensing literature. For example, in the modeling arena, four cutting-edge earth system models (ESM’s) show significant divergence in their seasonal patterns of photosynthesis from observed whole-system photosynthetic fluxes at two sites in the central Amazon. The overall objective of the project is to guide improvements in earth system models of tropical forest photosynthesis by collecting and integrating a suite of observations to 1) test several hypotheses (three core, conceptual hypotheses for explaining observed photosynthetic seasonality and a methodological hypotheses for scaling from leaves to canopy with hyperspectral cameras), and 2) perform a synthesis activity that applies our empirical work to earth system models of terrestrial carbon cycling. The project will provide an extensive suite of new and unique datasets that enable us to fill, through advanced modeling techniques and analysis, critical knowledge gaps in current understanding of what controls the response of canopy photosynthesis and related functions in Amazonian forests to seasonal variation in climate. Three major types of datasets and data products will be delivered: (1) in situ leaf and tree-scale measurements from intensive ecophysiological and ecohydological field campaigns, (2) time-series observations of leaf-to-crown scale forest reflectance properties and atmospheric radiation from two innovative, ground-based imaging sensors (respectively, the Hyperspectral Vegetation Imaging System and the High Dynamic Range All-Sky Imaging System), and (3) results from state-of-the-art models of 3-dimensional canopy processes for radiative transfer and photosynthesis that integrate and link our observations to tropical forest processes. These data products and the improved knowledge we achieve with them will contribute to testing and improving the treatment of tropical forest processes in ESMs. They will contribute data to and leverage related data from of the GOAmazon campaign, and make significant contributions to support the overall goals of GOAmazon. This work will also help establish a foundation for the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) in the Tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Infrared Cloud Imager Instrument Intercomparison Report

The Infrared Cloud Imager Instrument Intercomparison was a guest instrument deployment by NWB Sensors to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility observatory on the Southern Great Plains (SGP) between May 18 and December 12, 2023. NWB Sensors is a company that has developed a commercially available infrared cloud imager (ICI). The ICI provides radiometrically calibrated, full-sky images of the downwelling infrared radiance in the 7.3-14 µm band. In addition, it provides cloud radiance as the residual between the observed radiance and the modeled cloud-free radiance as well as derived cloud products. The instrument is used in applications that require consistent detection of clouds across day and night. For more information, consult the instrument's webpage. The primary goal of the deployment was to validate the radiometric accuracy of the ICI. The ICI uses a proprietary calibration method to convert the raw data from its infrared camera into downwelling radiance. Unlike similar instruments, the system does not have an onboard blackbody calibration standard. Instead, NWB Sensors characterizes each ICI camera individually in an environmental chamber while looking at a blackbody standard. The resulting (proprietary) calibration is used operationally in the instrument and has been demonstrated to be stable over long periods. To validate the radiometric products from the ICI, an intercomparison between the ICI data products and those from ARM’s atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) was made. The AERI is a best-in-class instrument for measuring downwelling infrared radiance (Gero et al. 2025). A weighted integration of the AERI’s spectral radiances across the ICI’s camera response was performed. The resulting radiance (herein called the AERI radiance) was directly compared to the zenith radiance concurrently observed by the ICI. The results of these comparisons are reported in the next section of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sky camera geometric calibration using solar observations

A camera model and associated automated calibration procedure for stationary daytime sky imaging cameras is presented. The specific modeling and calibration needs are motivated by remotely deployed cameras used to forecast solar power production where cameras point skyward and use 180° fisheye lenses. Sun position in the sky and on the image plane provides a simple and automated approach to calibration; special equipment or calibration patterns are not required. Sun position in the sky is modeled using a solar position algorithm (requiring latitude, longitude, altitude and time as inputs). Sun position on the image plane is detected using a simple image processing algorithm. The performance evaluation focuses on the calibration of a camera employing a fisheye lens with an equisolid angle projection, but the camera model is general enough to treat most fixed focal length, central, dioptric camera systems with a photo objective lens. Calibration errors scale with the noise level of the sun position measurement in the image plane, but the calibration is robust across a large range of noise in the sun position. In conclusion, calibration performance on clear days ranged from 0.94 to 1.24 pixels root mean square error.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Andromeda (M31) optical and infrared disk survey. I. Insights in wide-field near-IR surface photometry

We present wide-field near-infrared J and K{sub s} images of the Andromeda Galaxy (M31) taken with WIRCam at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope as part of the Andromeda Optical and Infrared Disk Survey. This data set allows simultaneous observations of resolved stars and near-infrared (NIR) surface brightness across M31's entire bulge and disk (within R = 22 kpc), permitting a direct test of the stellar composition of near-infrared light in a nearby galaxy. Here we develop NIR observation and reduction methods to recover a uniform surface brightness map across the 3° × 1° disk of M31 with 27 WIRCam fields. Two sky-target nodding strategies are tested, and we find that strictly minimizing sky sampling latency cannot improve background subtraction accuracy to better than 2% of the background level due to spatio-temporal variations in the NIR skyglow. We fully describe our WIRCam reduction pipeline and advocate using flats built from night-sky images over a single night, rather than dome flats that do not capture the WIRCam illumination field. Contamination from scattered light and thermal background in sky flats has a negligible effect on the surface brightness shape compared to the stochastic differences in background shape between sky and galaxy disk fields, which are ∼0.3% of the background level. The most dramatic calibration step is the introduction of scalar sky offsets to each image that optimizes surface brightness continuity. Sky offsets reduce the mean surface brightness difference between observation blocks from 1% to <0.1% of the background level, though the absolute background level remains statistically uncertain to 0.15% of the background level. We present our WIRCam reduction pipeline and performance analysis to give specific recommendations for the improvement of NIR wide-field imaging methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Macrophysical properties of continental cumulus clouds from active and passive remote sensing

Cloud amount is an essential and extensively used macrophysical parameter of cumulus clouds. It is commonly defined as a cloud fraction (CF) from zenith-pointing ground-based active and passive remote sensing. However, conventional retrievals of CF from the remote sensing data with very narrow field-of-view (FOV) may not be representative of the surrounding area. Here we assess its representativeness using an integrated dataset collected at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA. For our assessment with focus on selected days with single-layer cumulus clouds (2005-2016), we include the narrow-FOV ARM Active Remotely Sensed Clouds Locations (ARSCL) and large-FOV Total Sky Imager (TSI) cloud products, the 915-MHz Radar Wind Profiler (RWP) measurements of wind speed and direction, and also high-resolution satellite images from Landsat and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We demonstrate that a root-mean-square difference (RMSD) between the 15-min averaged ARSCL cloud fraction (CF) and the 15-min averaged TSI fractional sky cover (FSC) is large (up to 0.3). We also discuss how the horizontal distribution of clouds can modify the obtained large RMSD using a new uniformity metric. The latter utilizes the spatial distribution of the FSC over the 100° FOV TSI images obtained with high temporal resolution (30 sec sampling). We demonstrate that cases with more uniform spatial distribution of FSC show better agreement between the narrow-FOV CF and large-FOV FSC, reducing the RMSD by up to a factor of 2.

ARM Active Remotely Sensed Cloud Locations (ARSCL)↗

Imaging the Milky Way with Millihertz Gravitational Waves

Modern astronomers enjoy access to all-sky images across a wide range of the electromagnetic spectrum from long-wavelength radio to high-energy gamma rays. The most prominent feature in many of these images is our own Galaxy, with different features revealed in each wave band. Gravitational waves (GWs) have recently been added to the astronomers’ toolkit as a nonelectromagnetic messenger. To date, all identified GW sources have been extra-Galactic and transient. However, the Milky Way hosts a population of ultracompact binaries (UCBs), which radiate persistent GWs in the milliHertz band that is not observable with today’s terrestrial gravitational-wave detectors. Space-based detectors such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna will measure this population and provide a census of their location, masses, and orbital properties. In this work, we will show how this data can be used to form a false-color image of the Galaxy that represents the intensity and frequency of the gravitational waves produced by the UCB population. Such images can be used to study the morphology of the Galaxy, identify interesting multimessenger sources through cross-matching, and for educational and outreach purposes.

Gravitational Waves↗

Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) Instrument Response

The Burst Alert Telescope (BAT), a large coded aperture instrument with a wide field-of-view (FOV), provides the gamma-ray burst triggers and locations for the Swift Gamma-Ray Burst Explorer. In addition to providing this imaging information, BAT will perform a 15 keV - 150 keV all-sky hard x-ray survey based on the serendipitous pointings resulting from the study of gamma-ray bursts and will also monitor the sky for transient hard x-ray sources. For BAT to provide spectral and photometric information for the gamma-ray bursts, the transient sources and the all-sky survey, the BAT instrument response must be determined to an increasingly greater accuracy. In this talk, we describe the BAT instrument response as determined to an accuracy suitable for gamma-ray burst studies. We will also discuss the public data analysis tools developed to calculate the BAT response to sources at different energies and locations in the FOV. The level of accuracy required for the BAT instrument response used for the hard x-ray survey is significantly higher because this response must be used in the iterative clean algorithm for finding fainter sources. Because the bright sources add a lot of coding noise to the BAT sky image, fainter sources can be seen only after the counts due to the bright sources are removed. The better we know the BAT response, the lower the noise in the cleaned spectrum and thus the more sensitive the survey. Since the BAT detector plane consists of 32768 individual, 4 mm square CZT gamma-ray detectors, the most accurate BAT response would include 32768 individual detector response functions to separate mask modulation effects from differences in detector efficiencies! We describe OUT continuing work to improve the accuracy of the BAT instrument response and will present the current results of Monte Carlo simulations as well as BAT ground calibration data.

Parsons, A.↗

Studying the Sky/Planets Can Drown You in Images: Machine Learning Solutions at JPL/Caltech

JPL is working to develop a domain-independent system capable of small-scale object recognition in large image databases for science analysis. Two applications discussed are the cataloging of three billion sky objects in the Sky Image Cataloging and Analysis Tool (SKICAT) and the detection of possibly one million small volcanoes visible in the Magellan synthetic aperture radar images of Venus (JPL Adaptive Recognition Tool, JARTool).

geomorphology↗

Low-Altitude Satellite Measurements of Pulsating Auroral Electrons

We present observations from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program and Reimei satellites, where common-volume high-resolution ground-based auroral imaging data are available. These satellite overpasses of ground-based all-sky imagers reveal the specific features of the electron populations responsible for different types of pulsating aurora modulations. The energies causing the pulsating aurora mostly range from 3 keV to 20 keV but can at times extend up to 30 keV. The secondary, low-energy electrons (<1 keV) are diminished from the precipitating distribution when there are strong temporal variations in auroral intensity. There are often persistent spatial structures present inside regions of pulsating aurora, and in these regions there are secondary electrons in the precipitating populations. The reduction of secondary electrons is consistent with the strongly temporally varying pulsating aurora being associated with field-aligned currents and hence parallel potential drops of up to 1 kV.

imaging↗

Large-scale visualization of digital sky surveys

Designed and developed within JPL/Caltech's supercomputing and visualization environment, the virtual observatory software described in this paper permits high performance visualization and analysis of large sky images and catalogs.

sky survey↗

Asteroid models from photometry and complementary data sources

I discuss inversion methods for asteroid shape and spin reconstruction with photometry (lightcurves) and complementary data sources such as adaptive optics or other images, occultation timings, interferometry, and range-Doppler radar data. These are essentially different sampling modes (generalized projections) of plane-of-sky images. An important concept in this approach is the optimal weighting of the various data modes. The maximum compatibility estimate, a multi-modal generalization of the maximum likelihood estimate, can be used for this purpose. I discuss the fundamental properties of lightcurve inversion by examining the two-dimensional case that, though not usable in our three-dimensional world, is simple to analyze, and it shares essentially the same uniqueness and stability properties as the 3-D case. After this, I review the main aspects of 3-D shape representations, lightcurve inversion, and the inclusion of complementary data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗