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NASA NTRS2014

Technology Estimating 2: A Process to Determine the Cost and Schedule of Space Technology Research and Development

As a leader in space technology research and development, NASA is continuing in the development of the Technology Estimating process, initiated in 2012, for estimating the cost and schedule of low maturity technology research and development, where the Technology Readiness Level is less than TRL 6. NASA' s Technology Roadmap areas consist of 14 technology areas. The focus of this continuing Technology Estimating effort included four Technology Areas (TA): TA3 Space Power and Energy Storage, TA4 Robotics, TA8 Instruments, and TA12 Materials, to confine the research to the most abundant data pool. This research report continues the development of technology estimating efforts completed during 2013-2014, and addresses the refinement of parameters selected and recommended for use in the estimating process, where the parameters developed are applicable to Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) used in the parametric cost estimating analysis. This research addresses the architecture for administration of the Technology Cost and Scheduling Estimating tool, the parameters suggested for computer software adjunct to any technology area, and the identification of gaps in the Technology Estimating process.

Cole, Stuart K.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Understanding and Predicting the Process of Software Maintenance Releases

One of the major concerns of any maintenance organization is to understand and estimate the cost of maintenance releases of software systems. Planning the next release so as to maximize the increase in functionality and the improvement in quality are vital to successful maintenance management. The objective of this paper is to present the results of a case study in which an incremental approach was used to better understand the effort distribution of releases and build a predictive effort model for software maintenance releases. This study was conducted in the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center(GSFC). This paper presents three main results: 1) a predictive effort model developed for the FDD's software maintenance release process; 2) measurement-based lessons learned about the maintenance process in the FDD; and 3) a set of lessons learned about the establishment of a measurement-based software maintenance improvement program. In addition, this study provides insights and guidelines for obtaining similar results in other maintenance organizations.

Basili, Victor↗

NASA NTRS2001

Space Debris Modeling at NASA

Since the Second European Conference on Space Debris in 1997, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center has undertaken a major effort to update and improve the principal software tools employed to model the space debris environment and to evaluate mission risks. NASA's orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM, represents the current and near-term Earth orbital debris population from the largest spacecraft to the smallest debris in a manner which permits spacecraft engineers and experimenters to estimate the frequency and velocity with which a satellite may be struck by debris of different sizes. Using expanded databases and a new program design, ORDEM2000 provides a more accurate environment definition combined with a much broader array of output products in comparison with its predecessor, ORDEM96. Studies of the potential long-term space debris environment are now conducted with EVOLVE 4.0, which incorporates significant advances in debris characterization and breakup modeling. An adjunct to EVOLVE 4.0, GEO EVOLVE has been created to examine debris issues near the geosynchronous orbital regime. In support of NASA Safety Standard 1740.14, which establishes debris mitigation guidelines for all NASA space programs, a set of evaluation tools called the Debris Assessment Software (DAS) is specifically designed for program offices to determine whether they are in compliance with NASA debris mitigation guidelines. DAS 1.5 has recently been released with improved WINDOWS compatibility and graphics functions. DAS 2.0 will incorporate guideline changes in a forthcoming revision to NASA Safety Standard 1740.14. Whereas DAS contains a simplified model to calculate possible risks associated with satellite reentries, NASA's higher fidelity Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been upgraded to Version 5.0. With the growing awareness of the potential risks posed by uncontrolled satellite reentries to people and property on Earth, the application of both DAS and ORSAT has increased markedly in the past two years.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Advanced Statistical Methods in Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation: Bayesian Regression and Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis to Support System Engineering in the Early Project Lifecycle

This paper provides an overview of the new features and model updates in the upcoming release of the NASA Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). ASCoT, hosted within the Online NASA Space Estimation Tools (ONSET) on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) Database, is a web-based tool that provides a suite of estimation tools to support early lifecycle NASA flight software cost analysis. In addition to the traditional parametric flight software costing method COCOMO II, ASCoT contains a Bayesian linear regression to predict total flight software development cost as a function of total spacecraft cost, as well as four analogic methods: k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Clustering models to predict Effort (in work-months) and total source lines of code (SLOC). These methods are designed to work primarily with system-level inputs such as mission type (orbiter, lander, etc.), mission destination (Earth, Inner Planetary, etc.), and the number of instruments and deployables. Nonlinear principal components analysis (NLPCA) is performed to find the principal features of the data composed of both categorical and numerical variables and is necessary prior to defining our analogic methods. Sensitivity analyses and in- and out-of-sample model performance results are presented for the Bayesian CER and the analogic models.

Johnson, James K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Autonomy in Distributed Space Systems: Insights From on-Orbit Testing with the Starling 1.0 Mission

Autonomous decision-making is crucial for enhancing mission effectiveness in Distributed Space Systems (DSS), particularly in multi-spacecraft operations where communication constraints and mission complexity pose challenges. The Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy (DSA) team at NASA’s Ames Research Center is advancing autonomy in DSS through five key technical areas: distributed resource and task management, reactive operations, system modeling and simulation, human-swarm interaction, and ad hoc network communications. The DSA experiment onboard the Starling 1.0 Mission showcases collaborative resource allocation for multi-point science data collection with four small spacecraft. Autonomy in decision-making is highlighted as a crucial factor for multi-spacecraft missions, enabling spacecraft to operate independently, reducing reliance on ground control. This capability is particularly significant for future deep-space missions, where communication delays and limited data transmission capacity make traditional command and control approaches impractical. This demonstration focuses on a GPS Channel Selection Experiment, leveraging emergent capabilities like "shared sampling" and "simultaneous sampling" to optimize channel selection across the spacecraft swarm. The experiment aims to capture ionospheric phenomena such as the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly and Polar Patches. The DSA system's autonomous reconfiguration ability is showcased, emphasizing its adaptability to natural phenomena without significant integration efforts. The GPS Channel Selection Experiment utilizes a dual-band GPS receiver to estimate plasma density in the ionosphere. Explorative and exploitative channel selections are employed based on the nature of observed phenomena. The performance of DSA algorithms is evaluated in terms of optimal channel allocations and responsiveness to changes in observed features. The DSA Flight Software utilizes the Core Flight System (cFS) framework, ensuring compatibility with the Starling 1.0 flight mission software. DSA showcases results from RTI’s Connext DDS Micro communication middleware, enabling message routing over the Ad-Hoc Network of Starling 1.0. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the DSA experiment's initial results, emphasizing the advancements in autonomy for Distributed Space Systems and the successful collaboration with the Starling 1.0 mission.

Caleb Ashmore Adams↗

NASA NTRS1993

The Database Query Support Processor (QSP)

The number and diversity of databases available to users continues to increase dramatically. Currently, the trend is towards decentralized, client server architectures that (on the surface) are less expensive to acquire, operate, and maintain than information architectures based on centralized, monolithic mainframes. The database query support processor (QSP) effort evaluates the performance of a network level, heterogeneous database access capability. Air Force Material Command's Rome Laboratory has developed an approach, based on ANSI standard X3.138 - 1988, 'The Information Resource Dictionary System (IRDS)' to seamless access to heterogeneous databases based on extensions to data dictionary technology. To successfully query a decentralized information system, users must know what data are available from which source, or have the knowledge and system privileges necessary to find out this information. Privacy and security considerations prohibit free and open access to every information system in every network. Even in completely open systems, time required to locate relevant data (in systems of any appreciable size) would be better spent analyzing the data, assuming the original question was not forgotten. Extensions to data dictionary technology have the potential to more fully automate the search and retrieval for relevant data in a decentralized environment. Substantial amounts of time and money could be saved by not having to teach users what data resides in which systems and how to access each of those systems. Information describing data and how to get it could be removed from the application and placed in a dedicated repository where it belongs. The result simplified applications that are less brittle and less expensive to build and maintain. Software technology providing the required functionality is off the shelf. The key difficulty is in defining the metadata required to support the process. The database query support processor effort will provide quantitative data on the amount of effort required to implement an extended data dictionary at the network level, add new systems, adapt to changing user needs, and provide sound estimates on operations and maintenance costs and savings.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2018

Comparison of Aircraft Conceptual Design Weight Estimation Methods to the Flight Optimization System

Weight estimation is critical in the aircraft conceptual design process. The Flight Optimization System (FLOPS) is an aircraft conceptual design tool that has been the primary aircraft synthesis software used by the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate at NASA Langley Research Center. FLOPS includes multiple modules that represent aircraft design disciplines. The FLOPS weight module includes estimation methods that are similar in nature to other regression based aircraft preliminary weight estimation methods, however the FLOPS methods were created to use a minimum number of input parameters to limit the effort required by the designer to apply it. As FLOPS has recently been made publically available, this work compares the FLOPS weight estimation methods with several similar methods with the goal of explaining the differences in FLOPS, providing conceptual designers with a brief introduction to the method before attempting to apply it, and providing a reference to inform the development of future weight estimating relationships. In this paper, the Boeing 737-200 is used as a test case to highlight to differences and similarities in the methods.

Horvath, Bryce L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Gilkey, Kelly M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Adaptive Thresholding and Parameter Estimation for PPM

A method of adaptive setting of a threshold level for the detection of pulses in a pulse-position modulation (PPM) free-space optical communication system has been developed. In simplified terms, it is desirable to set a threshold value high enough to greatly reduce the probability (PFA as defined below) of erroneously detecting noise as signal pulses but not so high as to greatly reduce the probability (PD as defined below) of detecting any signal pulses that may be present along with noise. In the present method, the threshold level is varied with time, in response to changing conditions in the optical-communication channel, in an effort to maintain a balance between the aforesaid competing requirements. An integral part of this adaptation scheme is a scheme for estimating key parameters of the optical-communication channel in particular, parameters that describe the fading and total attenuation in the channel, and parameters that characterize spreading of pulses by atmospheric and other effects. The method can be implemented by software processing of digitized optoelectronic-detector output, and has been tested by computational simulation. In the first stage of processing by this method, the digitized values of the detector output during noise-only time slots of received PPM symbols are averaged to obtain a background level. This background level is subtracted from the detector output in the hope of reducing or eliminating the noise component in the remaining signal. (This background level should not be confused with the detection threshold, which is computed in the last stage of processing.) Next, the remaining signal - in effect, a vector of pulse samples - is normalized by dividing it by its L1 norm (in general, the L1 norm of a vector is defined as the sum of absolute magnitudes of its orthogonal components).

Arabshahi, Payman↗

NASA NTRS2004

Meteor44 Video Meteor Photometry

Meteor44 is a software system developed at MSFC for the calibration and analysis of video meteor data. The dynamic range of the (8bit) video data is extended by approximately 4 magnitudes for both meteors and stellar images using saturation compensation. Camera and lens specific saturation compensation coefficients are derived from artificial variable star laboratory measurements. Saturation compensation significantly increases the number of meteors with measured intensity and improves the estimation of meteoroid mass distribution. Astrometry is automated to determine each image's plate coefficient using appropriate star catalogs. The images are simultaneously intensity calibrated from the contained stars to determine the photon sensitivity and the saturation level referenced above the atmosphere. The camera s spectral response is used to compensate for stellar color index and typical meteor spectra in order to report meteor light curves in traditional visual magnitude units. Recent efforts include improved camera calibration procedures, long focal length 'streak' meteor photometry and two-station track determination. Meteor44 has been used to analyze data from the 2001, 2002 and 2003 MSFC Leonid observational campaigns as well as several lesser showers. The software is interactive and can be demonstrated using data from recent Leonid campaigns.

Swift, Wesley R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Meteor44 Video Meteor Photometry

Meteor44 is a software system developed at MSFC for the calibration and analysis of video meteor data. The dynamic range of the (8bit) video data is extended by approximately 4 magnitudes for both meteors and stellar images using saturation compensation. Camera and lens specific saturation compensation coefficients are derived from artificial variable star laboratory measurements. Saturation compensation significantly increases the number of meteors with measured intensity and improves the estimation of meteoroid mass distribution. Astrometry is automated to determine each image s plate coefficient using appropriate star catalogs. The images are simultaneously intensity calibrated from the contained stars to determine the photon sensitivity and the saturation level referenced above the atmosphere. The camera s spectral response is used to compensate for stellar color index and typical meteor spectra in order to report meteor light curves in traditional visual magnitude units. Recent efforts include improved camera calibration procedures, long focal length "streak" meteor photome&y and two-station track determination. Meteor44 has been used to analyze data from the 2001.2002 and 2003 MSFC Leonid observational campaigns as well as several lesser showers. The software is interactive and can be demonstrated using data from recent Leonid campaigns.

Swift, Wesley R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Object-oriented productivity metrics

Software productivity metrics are useful for sizing and costing proposed software and for measuring development productivity. Estimating and measuring source lines of code (SLOC) has proven to be a bad idea because it encourages writing more lines of code and using lower level languages. Function Point Analysis is an improved software metric system, but it is not compatible with newer rapid prototyping and object-oriented approaches to software development. A process is presented here for counting object-oriented effort points, based on a preliminary object-oriented analysis. It is proposed that this approach is compatible with object-oriented analysis, design, programming, and rapid prototyping. Statistics gathered on actual projects are presented to validate the approach.

Connell, John L.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Recent Progress Towards Predicting Aircraft Ground Handling Performance

The significant progress which has been achieved in development of aircraft ground handling simulation capability is reviewed and additional improvements in software modeling identified. The problem associated with providing necessary simulator input data for adequate modeling of aircraft tire/runway friction behavior is discussed and efforts to improve this complex model, and hence simulator fidelity, are described. Aircraft braking performance data obtained on several wet runway surfaces is compared to ground vehicle friction measurements and, by use of empirically derived methods, good agreement between actual and estimated aircraft braking friction from ground vehilce data is shown. The performance of a relatively new friction measuring device, the friction tester, showed great promise in providing data applicable to aircraft friction performance. Additional research efforts to improve methods of predicting tire friction performance are discussed including use of an instrumented tire test vehicle to expand the tire friction data bank and a study of surface texture measurement techniques.

Yager, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software: Phase 2 Summary

NASA has used aerobraking at Mars and Venus to reduce the fuel required to deliver a spacecraft into a desired orbit compared to an all-propulsive solution. Although aerobraking reduces the propellant, it does so at the expense of mission duration, large staff, and DSN coverage. These factors make aerobraking a significant cost element in the mission design. By moving on-board the current ground-based tasks of ephemeris determination, atmospheric density estimation, and maneuver sizing and execution, a flight project would realize significant cost savings. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) sponsored Phase 1 and 2 of the Autonomous Aerobraking Development Software (AADS) study, which demonstrated the initial feasibility of moving these current ground-based functions to the spacecraft. This paper highlights key state-of-the-art advancements made in the Phase 2 effort to verify that the AADS algorithms are accurate, robust and ready to be considered for application on future missions that utilize aerobraking. The advancements discussed herein include both model updates and simulation and benchmark testing. Rigorous testing using observed flight atmospheres, operational environments and statistical analysis characterized the AADS operability in a perturbed environment.

Cianciolo, Alicia D.↗

NASA NTRS2021

On-Board Model Based Fault Diagnosis for CubeSat Attitude Control Subsystem: Flight Data Results

Self-sufficient, robotic spacecraft require estimates of their hardware health state in order to project future system state and plan actions toward achieving mission goals. In this paper, we report on integration of a Model-Based Fault Diagnosis (MBFD) model and reasoning engine into flight software leveraging the Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics (ASTERIA) mission, including test results against captured flight data using the ASTERIA system testbed. Our effort integrated the Model-based Off-Nominal State Identification and Detection (MONSID) model-based reasoning system, developed by Okean Solutions, into ASTERIA flight software using the F Prime software framework. The MONSID engine was supplied with a model of the Blue Canyon Technologies XACT attitude control system (ACS) and tested against flight data and seeded fault tests. While we were unable to conduct an on-board experiment due to the premature loss of ASTERIA, our effort proved the feasibility of on-board model-based fault management, demonstrating reliable and accurate diagnosis using captured data, and further supporting a closed-loop spacecraft autonomy demonstration including autonomous navigation in off-nominal conditions.

Prather, Maurice↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fault Management Algorithm Risk Assessment for the NASA Space Launch System

This paper presents the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) risk assessment process currently being conducted for the Space Launch System (SLS) Artemis II Fault Management (FM) detection functions. The analysis scope, general assumptions and guide rules, and key modeling concepts were discussed to establish the basis of the risk assessments conducted. Initial analyses indicated a dominance in the total risk by software and firmware failures. This paper presents efforts applied to refine the software risks and the overall impact of implementing those modifications. Current analyses conducted on the detection functions implemented for the SLS Artemis II mission indicate primary risk drivers for the individual FM detection functions are flight software failures, firmware design failures, and hardware Common Cause Failures (CCFs). There still remains issues of how to account for time and redundancy in the software risk estimations.

probability risk analysis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fault Management Algorithm Risk Assessment for the NASA Space Launch System

This presentation describes the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) risk assessment process currently being conducted for the Space Launch System (SLS) Artemis II Fault Management (FM) detection functions. The analysis scope, general assumptions and guide rules, and key modeling concepts were discussed to establish the basis of the risk assessments conducted. Initial analyses indicated a dominance in the total risk by software and firmware failures. This paper presents efforts applied to refine the software risks and the overall impact of implementing those modifications. Current analyses conducted on the detection functions implemented for the SLS Artemis II mission indicate primary risk drivers for the individual FM detection functions are flight software failures, firmware design failures, and hardware Common Cause Failures (CCFs). There still remains issues of how to account for time and redundancy in the software risk estimations.

probability risk analysis↗

NASA NTRS1996

Development of Methodologies for the Estimation of Thermal Properties Associated with Aerospace Vehicles

A thermal stress analysis is an important aspect in the design of aerospace structures and vehicles such as the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Langley Research Center (NASA-LaRC). These structures are complex and are often composed of numerous components fabricated from a variety of different materials. The thermal loads on these structures induce temperature variations within the structure, which in turn result in the development of thermal stresses. Therefore, a thermal stress analysis requires knowledge of the temperature distributions within the structures which consequently necessitates the need for accurate knowledge of the thermal properties, boundary conditions and thermal interface conditions associated with the structural materials. The goal of this proposed multi-year research effort was to develop estimation methodologies for the determination of the thermal properties and interface conditions associated with aerospace vehicles. Specific objectives focused on the development and implementation of optimal experimental design strategies and methodologies for the estimation of thermal properties associated with simple composite and honeycomb structures. The strategy used in this multi-year research effort was to first develop methodologies for relatively simple systems and then systematically modify these methodologies to analyze complex structures. This can be thought of as a building block approach. This strategy was intended to promote maximum usability of the resulting estimation procedure by NASA-LARC researchers through the design of in-house experimentation procedures and through the use of an existing general purpose finite element software.

Scott, Elaine P.↗