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DOE OSTI2019

Early risk stratification using Rubidium-82 positron emission tomography in STEMI patients

Background: Assessment of infarct size after myocardial infarction is predictive of subsequent morphological changes and clinical outcome. This study aimed to assess subacute post-intervention Rubidium-82 ({sup 82}Rb)-PET imaging in predicting left ventricle ejection fraction, regional wall motion, and final infarct size by CMR at 3-months after STEMI. Methods: STEMI patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention were included prospectively. Rest-only {sup 82}Rb-PET perfusion imaging was performed at median 36 hours [IQR: 22 to 50] after the treatment. The extent of hypoperfusion and absolute blood flow (mL·min·g) were estimated on a global and a 17-segment model with dedicated software. At 3-months follow-up patients completed the CMR functional and late gadolinium enhancement imaging. Results: 42 patients were included, but only 35 had follow-up CMR and constituted the study population. Absolute blood flow was significantly lower in the infarct-related territory compared to remote myocardium, P < .005. Extent of hypoperfusion correlated with final infarct size, r = 0.58, P < .001, while blood flow correlated with ejection fraction, r = 0.41, P < .05. In linear mixed models, higher subacute absolute blood flow (β = 4.6, confidence interval [3.5; 5.2], P < .001, R{sup 2} = 0.67) was associated with greater wall motion. Segmental extent of subacute hypoperfusion (β = 0.43 [0.38; 0.49], P < .001, R{sup 2} = 0.58) was associated with the degree of late gadolinium enhancement at 3-months. Conclusions: Subacute rest-only {sup 82}Rb-PET is feasible following STEMI and seems predictive of myocardial function and infarct size at 3-months.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Isotopically nonstationary metabolic flux analysis (INST-MFA): putting theory into practice

Typically, 13 C flux analysis relies on assumptions of both metabolic and isotopic steady state. If metabolism is steady but isotope labeling is not allowed to fully equilibrate, isotopically nonstationary metabolic flux analysis (INST-MFA) can be used to estimate fluxes. This requires solution of differential equations that describe the time-dependent labeling of network metabolites, while iteratively adjusting the flux and pool size parameters to match the transient labeling measurements. INST-MFA holds a number of unique advantages over approaches that rely solely upon steady-state isotope enrichments. First, INST-MFA can be applied to estimate fluxes in autotrophic systems, which consume only single-carbon substrates. Second, INST-MFA is ideally suited to systems that label slowly due to the presence of large intermediate pools or pathway bottlenecks. Finally, INST-MFA provides increased measurement sensitivity to estimate reversible exchange fluxes and metabolite pool sizes, which represents a potential framework for integrating metabolomic analysis with 13 C flux analysis. This review highlights the unique capabilities of INST-MFA, describes newly available software tools that automate INST-MFA calculations, presents several practical examples of recent INST-MFA applications, and discusses the technical challenges that lie ahead.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Procedure for Structural Weight Estimation of Single Stage to Orbit Launch Vehicles (Interim User's Manual)

This is an interim user's manual for current procedures used in the Vehicle Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia, for launch vehicle structural subsystem weight estimation based on finite element modeling and structural analysis. The process is intended to complement traditional methods of conceptual and early preliminary structural design such as the application of empirical weight estimation or application of classical engineering design equations and criteria on one dimensional "line" models. Functions of two commercially available software codes are coupled together. Vehicle modeling and analysis are done using SDRC/I-DEAS, and structural sizing is performed with the Collier Research Corp. HyperSizer program.

Martinovic, Zoran N.↗

DOE OSTI2013

A Full-Featured User Friendly CO 2 -EOR and Sequestration Planning Software

A Full-Featured, User Friendly CO 2 -EOR and Sequestration Planning Software This project addressed the development of an integrated software solution that includes a graphical user interface, numerical simulation, visualization tools and optimization processes for reservoir simulation modeling of CO 2 -EOR. The objective was to assist the industry in the development of domestic energy resources by expanding the application of CO 2 -EOR technologies, and ultimately to maximize the CO 2 } sequestration capacity of the U.S. The software resulted in a field-ready application for the industry to address the current CO 2 -EOR technologies. The software has been made available to the public without restrictions and with user friendly operating documentation and tutorials. The software (executable only) can be downloaded from NITEC’s website at www.nitecllc.com. This integrated solution enables the design, optimization and operation of CO 2 -EOR processes for small and mid-sized operators, who currently cannot afford the expensive, time intensive solutions that the major oil companies enjoy. Based on one estimate, small oil fields comprise 30% of the of total economic resource potential for the application of CO 2 -EOR processes in the U.S. This corresponds to 21.7 billion barrels of incremental, technically recoverable oil using the current “best practices”, and 31.9 billion barrels using “next-generation” CO 2 -EOR techniques. The project included a Case Study of a prospective CO 2 -EOR candidate field in Wyoming by a small independent, Linc Energy Petroleum Wyoming, Inc. NITEC LLC has an established track record of developing innovative and user friendly software. The Principle Investigator is an experienced manager and engineer with expertise in software development, numerical techniques, and GUI applications. Unique, presently-proprietary NITEC technologies have been integrated into this application to further its ease of use and technical functionality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parametric analysis on optimized design of hybrid solar power plants

There is increasing interest in utility-scale solar power plants with storage which can flexibly dispatch renewable energy to the grid. However, plant design possesses many degrees of freedom and non-obvious trade-offs in performance. Software tools can estimate or optimize the performance of a specific plant configuration under market and weather conditions of interest; the associated cost parameters and operating assumptions strongly influence estimates of plant performance and decisions regarding optimal sizing. We employ the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Hybrid Optimization and Performance Platform, which incorporates optimal dispatch when evaluating plant performance, and investigate the sensitivity to weather and market conditions, operating limitations, and the presence of a capacity-based incentive. We demonstrate changes in plant performance and optimal sizing with respect to these inputs and discuss implications. Here results show that PV-with-battery designs are more profitable under our assumptions, but that designs including a concentrated solar power (CSP) system produce significantly greater annual energy; and that CSP-with-thermal energy storage designs maximizing the benefit-to-cost ratio have an input-dependent linear relationship between the CSP field solar multiple and the hours of storage as the project budget varies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

TU-F-CAMPUS-T-05: Replacement Computational Phantoms to Estimate Dose in Out-Of-Field Organs and Tissues

Purpose: To estimate the absorbed dose in organs and tissues at risk for radiogenic cancer for children receiving photon radiotherapy for localized brain tumors (LBTs) by supplementing their missing body anatomies with those of replacement computational phantoms. Applied beyond the extent of the RT Images collected by computed tomography simulation, these phantoms included RT Image and RT Structure Set objects that encompassed sufficient extents and contours for dosimetric calculations. Method: Nine children, aged 2 to 14 years, who received three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for low-grade LBTs, were randomly selected for this study under Institutional-Review-Board protocol. Because the extents of their RT Images were cranial only, they were matched for size and sex with patients from a previous study with larger extents and for whom contours of organs at risk for radiogenic cancer had already been delineated. Rigid fusion was performed between the patients’ data and those of the replacement computational phantoms using commercial software. In-field dose was calculated with a clinically-commissioned treatment planning system, and out-of-field dose was estimated with an analytical model. Results: Averaged over all nine children and normalized for a therapeutic dose of 54 Gy prescribed to the PTV, where the PTV is the GTV, the highest mean organ doses were 3.27, 2.41, 1.07, 1.02, 0.24, and 0.24 Gy in the non-tumor remainder, red bone marrow, thyroid, skin, breasts, and lungs, respectively. The mean organ doses ranged by a factor of 3 between the smallest and largest children. Conclusion: For children receiving photon radiotherapy for LBTs, we found their doses in organs at risk for second cancer to be non-negligible, especially in the non-tumor remainder, red bone marrow, thyroid, skin, breasts, and lungs. This study demonstrated the feasibility for patient dosimetry studies to augment missing patient anatomy by applying size- and sex-matched replacement computational phantoms with pre-contoured organs. Funding is in part by the Fogarty International Center award K01TW008409, and the Portland Chapter of the Achievement Rewards for College Scientists. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors, and does not necessarily represent the official views of the sponsors. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Anomaly Detection in Test Equipment via Sliding Mode Observers

Nonlinear observers were originally developed based on the ideas of variable structure control, and for the purpose of detecting disturbances in complex systems. In this anomaly detection application, these observers were designed for estimating the distributed state of fluid flow in a pipe described by a class of advection equations. The observer algorithm uses collected data in a piping system to estimate the distributed system state (pressure and velocity along a pipe containing liquid gas propellant flow) using only boundary measurements. These estimates are then used to further estimate and localize possible anomalies such as leaks or foreign objects, and instrumentation metering problems such as incorrect flow meter orifice plate size. The observer algorithm has the following parts: a mathematical model of the fluid flow, observer control algorithm, and an anomaly identification algorithm. The main functional operation of the algorithm is in creating the sliding mode in the observer system implemented as software. Once the sliding mode starts in the system, the equivalent value of the discontinuous function in sliding mode can be obtained by filtering out the high-frequency chattering component. In control theory, "observers" are dynamic algorithms for the online estimation of the current state of a dynamic system by measurements of an output of the system. Classical linear observers can provide optimal estimates of a system state in case of uncertainty modeled by white noise. For nonlinear cases, the theory of nonlinear observers has been developed and its success is mainly due to the sliding mode approach. Using the mathematical theory of variable structure systems with sliding modes, the observer algorithm is designed in such a way that it steers the output of the model to the output of the system obtained via a variety of sensors, in spite of possible mismatches between the assumed model and actual system. The unique properties of sliding mode control allow not only control of the model internal states to the states of the real-life system, but also identification of the disturbance or anomaly that may occur.

Solano, Wanda M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effects of overlapping sources on cosmic shear estimation: Statistical sensitivity and pixel-noise bias

The next generation of dark-energy imaging surveys — so called “Stage-IV” surveys, such as that of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) — will cross a threshold in the number density of detected sources on the sky that requires qualitatively different image analysis and measurement techniques compared to the current generation of Stage-III surveys. In Stage-IV surveys, a significant amount of the cosmologically useful information is due to sources whose images overlap with those of other sources on the sky. Here, we focus on the weak gravitational lensing probe, for which we expect the largest impact since the cosmic shear signal is primarily encoded in the estimated shapes of observed galaxies and thus directly impacted by overlaps. We introduce a framework based on the Fisher formalism to analyze the effect of the overlapping sources (“blending”) on the estimation of cosmic shear. This method gives concrete predictions for the minimum loss of information due to noise and blending for any choice of “deblending” scheme and shape-measurement algorithm. Our studies account for undetected sources but do not address their full effects and biases they may introduce. We use simulated images and predict this impact of blending for three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper-Suprime Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), and the Rubin LSST. Our methodology successfully estimates the statistical sensitivity to weak lensing for DES and HSC early results. For LSST, we present the expected loss in statistical sensitivity for the ten-year survey due to blending. We find that for approximately 62% of galaxies that are likely to be detected in full-depth LSST images, at least 1% of the flux in their pixels is from overlapping sources. We also find that the statistical correlations between measures of overlapping galaxies and, to a much lesser extent (0.2%) the higher shot noise level due to their presence, decrease the effective number density of galaxies, N eff , by ~ 18%. We calculate an upper limit on N eff of 39.4 galaxies per arcmin 2 in r band. We study the impact of stars on as a function of stellar density and illustrate the diminishing returns of extending the survey into lower Galactic latitudes. We extend the simulation-based Fisher formalism to predict the expected increase in pixel-noise bias due to blending for maximum-likelihood (ML) shape estimators. We find that noise bias depends sensitively on the particular shape estimator and measure of ensemble-average shape that is used, and properties of the galaxy that include redshift-dependent quantities such as size and luminosity. The source code for these studies is available online.[The documented software developed for the catalog-level studies are available in the open-source LSST DESC github repository https://github.com/LSSTDESC/WeakLensingDeblending. The software for analyzing one or two galaxies with user-defined parameters is in the open-source github repository https://github.com/ismael-mendoza/ShapeMeasurementFisherFormalism.]

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling, Load Profile Validation, and Assessment of Solar-Rooftop Energy Potential for Low-and-Moderate-Income Communities in the Caribbean

This document presents the modeling of load profile consumption for Low-and-Moderate-Income (LMI) communities in the Caribbean Islands, as well as an assessment of the solar-rooftop energy potential. In this work, real data, together with synthetic and electricity bill data, were collected to validate and improve the load profile models. The solar-rooftop energy potential was obtained through a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) software called the PVWatts calculator, and mathematical analysis. The analysis of rooftop solar energy potential was conducted to enable the minimum size of solar power systems to fit the energy demand in the community. The results obtained allow estimation of the capacity of the energy system for each house or an entire community.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1994

Radar aperture synthesis observations of asteroids

We report of Goldstone-VLA, radar aperture-synthesis observations of the mainbelt asteroids 324 Bamberga and 7 Iris and the near-Earth asteroids 1991 EE and 4179 Toutatis. Simultaneous resolution of echoes in both angle and Doppler frequency provide new constraints on the mainbelt asteroids' pole directions: Bamberga's spin vector is within 40 deg of the south ecliptic pole, and the twofold ambiguity in Iris' pole direction (P. Magnusson, 1989) is resolved in favor of the ecliptic coordinates lambda = 15 deg, beta = +25 deg. For Bamberga, monostatic and bistatic radar echoes and VLA thermal-emission measurements, also reported here, are consistent with radiometric estimates of Bamberga's size and with the hypothesis that the asteroid is overlain by a regolith having a porosity of approximately 50%. Our near-Earth asteroid measurements required the development of new on-line VLA software that allows imaging of objects that are in the telescope's `near field.' This software has been successfully tested on Toutatis at a distance of 0.06 AU and will be essential for VLA observations of Earth-approaching comets.

De Pater, Imke↗

NASA NTRS2007

Orbit Determination of LEO Satellites for a Single Pass through a Radar: Comparison of Methods

The problem of determining the orbit of a space object from measurements based on one pass through the field of view of a radar is not a new one. Extensive research in this area has been carried out in the USA and Russia since the late 50s when these countries started the development of ballistic missile defense (BMD) and Early Warning systems. In Russia these investigations got additional stimulation in the early 60s after the decision to create a Space Surveillance System, whose primary task would be the maintenance of the satellite catalog. These problems were the focus of research interest until the middle 70s when the appropriate techniques and software were implemented for all radars. Then for more than 20 years no new research papers appeared on this subject. This produced an impression that all the problems of track determination based on one pass had been solved and there was no need for further research. In the late 90s interest in this problem arose again in relation to the following. It was estimated that there would be greater than 100,000 objects with size greater than 1-2 cm and collision of an operational spacecraft with any of these objects could have catastrophic results. Thus, for prevention of hazardous approaches and collisions with valuable spacecraft the existing satellite catalog should be extended by at least an order of magnitude This is a very difficult scientific and engineering task. One of the issues is the development of data fusion procedures and the software capable of maintaining such a huge catalog in near real time. The number of daily processed measurements (of all types, radar and optical) for such a system may constitute millions, thus increasing the number of measurements by at least an order of magnitude. Since we will have ten times more satellites and measurements the computer effort required for the correlation of measurements will be two orders of magnitude greater. This could create significant problems for processing data close to real time even for modern computers. Preliminary "compression" of data for one pass through the field of view of a sensor can significantly reduce the requirements to computers and data communication. This compression will occur when all the single measurements of the sensor are replaced by the orbit determined on their basis. The single measurement here means the radar parameters (range, azimuth, elevation, and in some cases range rate) measured by a single pulse.

Khutorovsky, Z.↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-I-07: An Improved Technique for Scatter Correction in PET

Purpose: In positron emission tomography (PET), the single scatter simulation (SSS) algorithm is widely used for scatter estimation in clinical scans. However, bias usually occurs at the essential steps of scaling the computed SSS distribution to real scatter amounts by employing the scatter-only projection tail. The bias can be amplified when the scatter-only projection tail is too small, resulting in incorrect scatter correction. To this end, we propose a novel scatter calibration technique to accurately estimate the amount of scatter using pre-determined scatter fraction (SF) function instead of the employment of scatter-only tail information. Methods: As the SF depends on the radioactivity distribution and the attenuating material of the patient, an accurate theoretical relation cannot be devised. Instead, we constructed an empirical transformation function between SFs and average attenuation coefficients based on a serious of phantom studies with different sizes and materials. From the average attenuation coefficient, the predicted SFs were calculated using empirical transformation function. Hence, real scatter amount can be obtained by scaling the SSS distribution with the predicted SFs. The simulation was conducted using the SimSET. The Siemens Biograph™ 6 PET scanner was modeled in this study. The Software for Tomographic Image Reconstruction (STIR) was employed to estimate the scatter and reconstruct images. The EEC phantom was adopted to evaluate the performance of our proposed technique. Results: The scatter-corrected image of our method demonstrated improved image contrast over that of SSS. For our technique and SSS of the reconstructed images, the normalized standard deviation were 0.053 and 0.182, respectively; the root mean squared errors were 11.852 and 13.767, respectively. Conclusion: We have proposed an alternative method to calibrate SSS (C-SSS) to the absolute scatter amounts using SF. This method can avoid the bias caused by the insufficient tail information and therefore improve the accuracy of scatter estimation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2017

A learning-based measurement framework for traffic matrix inference in software defined networks

Here, we propose an intelligent framework for Traffic Matrix (TM) inference in Software Defined Networks (SDN) where the Ternary Content Addressable Memory (TCAM) entries of switches are partitioned into two parts to: (1) effectively aggregate part of incoming flows for aggregate measurements, and (2) de-aggregate and directly measure the most informative flows for per-flow measurements. These measurements are then processed to effectively estimate the size of network flows. Under hard resource constraints of limited TCAM sizes, we show how to design the optimal and efficient-compressed flow aggregation matrices. We propose an optimal Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) based algorithm to adaptively measure the most rewarding flows. We evaluate the performance of our framework using real traffic traces from different network environments and by considering two main applications: TM estimation and Heavy Hitter (HH) detection. Moreover, we have implemented a prototype of our framework in Mininet to demonstrate its effectiveness.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2013

Mars Sample Return Landed with Red Dragon

A Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission is the highest priority science mission for the next decade as recommended by the recent Decadal Survey of Planetary Science. However, an affordable program to carry this out has not been defined. This paper describes a study that examined use of emerging commercial capabilities to land the sample return elements, with the goal of reducing mission cost. A team at NASA Ames examined the feasibility of the following scenario for MSR: A Falcon Heavy launcher injects a SpaceX Dragon crew capsule and trunk onto a Trans Mars Injection trajectory. The capsule is modified to carry all the hardware needed to return samples collected on Mars including a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), an Earth Return Vehicle (ERV) and Sample Collection and Storage hardware. The Dragon descends to land on the surface of Mars using SuperSonic Retro Propulsion (SSRP) as described by Braun and Manning [IEEEAC paper 0076, 2005]. Samples are acquired and deliverd to the MAV by a prelanded asset, possibly the proposed 2020 rover. After samples are obtained and stored in the ERV, the MAV launches the sample-containing ERV from the surface of Mars. We examined cases where the ERV is delivered to either low Mars orbit (LMO), C3 = 0 (Mars escape), or an intermediate energy state. The ERV then provides the rest of the energy (delta V) required to perform trans-Earth injection (TEI), cruise, and insertion into a Moon-trailing Earth Orbit (MTEO). A later mission, possibly a crewed Dragon launched by a Falcon Heavy (not part of the current study) retrieves the sample container, packages the sample, and performs a controlled Earth re-entry to prevent Mars materials from accidentally contaminating Earth. The key analysis methods used in the study employed a set of parametric mass estimating relationships (MERs) and standard aerospace analysis software codes modified for the MAV class of launch vehicle to determine the range of performance parameters that produced converged spacecraft designs capable of meeting mission requirements. Subsystems modeled in this study included structures, power system, propulsion system, nose fairing, thermal insulation, actuation devices, and GN&C. Best practice application of loads and design margins for all resources were used. Both storable and cryogenic propellant systems were examined. The landed mass and lander capsule size provide boundary conditions for the MAV design and packaging. We estimated the maximum mass the Dragon capsule is capable of landing. This and the volume capability to store the MAV was deduced from publically available data from SpaceX as well as our own engineering and aerodynamic estimates. Minimum gross-liftoff mass (GLOM) for the MAV were obtained for configurations that used pump-fed storable bi-propellant rocket engines for both the MAV and the ERV stage. The GLOM required fits within our internal estimate of the mass that Dragon can land at low elevation/optimal seasons on Mars. Based on the analysis, we show that a single Mars launch sample return mission is feasible using current commercial capabilities to deliver the return spacecraft assets.

Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV)↗

DOE OSTI2013

Design Process for the Development of a New Truck Monitoring System - 13306

Canberra Industries, Inc. has designed a new truck monitoring system for a facility in Japan. The customer desires to separately quantify the Cs-137 and Cs-134 content of truck cargo entering and leaving a Waste Consolidation Area. The content of the trucks will be some combination of sand, soil, and vegetation with densities ranging from 0.3 g/cc - 1.6 g/cc. The typical weight of the trucks will be approximately 10 tons, but can vary between 4 and 20 tons. The system must be sensitive enough to detect 100 Bq/kg in 10 seconds (with less than 10% relative standard deviation) but still have enough dynamic range to measure 1,000,000 Bq/kg material. The system will be operated in an outdoor environment. Starting from these requirements, Canberra explored all aspects of the counting system in order to provide the customer with the optimized solution. The desire to separately quantify Cs-137 and Cs-134 favors the use of a spectroscopic system as a solution. Using the In Situ Object Counting System (ISOCS) mathematical efficiency calculation tool, we explored various detector types, number, and physical arrangement for maximum performance. Given the choice of detector, the ISOCS software was used to investigate which geometric parameters (fill height, material density, etc.) caused the most fluctuations in the efficiency results. Furthermore, these variations were used to obtain quantitative estimates of the uncertainties associated with the possible physical variations in the truck size, detector positioning, and material composition, density, and fill height. Various shielding options were also explored to ensure that any measured Cs content would be from the truck and not from the surrounding area. The details of the various calculations along with the final design are given. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2001

Space Debris Modeling at NASA

Since the Second European Conference on Space Debris in 1997, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center has undertaken a major effort to update and improve the principal software tools employed to model the space debris environment and to evaluate mission risks. NASA's orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM, represents the current and near-term Earth orbital debris population from the largest spacecraft to the smallest debris in a manner which permits spacecraft engineers and experimenters to estimate the frequency and velocity with which a satellite may be struck by debris of different sizes. Using expanded databases and a new program design, ORDEM2000 provides a more accurate environment definition combined with a much broader array of output products in comparison with its predecessor, ORDEM96. Studies of the potential long-term space debris environment are now conducted with EVOLVE 4.0, which incorporates significant advances in debris characterization and breakup modeling. An adjunct to EVOLVE 4.0, GEO EVOLVE has been created to examine debris issues near the geosynchronous orbital regime. In support of NASA Safety Standard 1740.14, which establishes debris mitigation guidelines for all NASA space programs, a set of evaluation tools called the Debris Assessment Software (DAS) is specifically designed for program offices to determine whether they are in compliance with NASA debris mitigation guidelines. DAS 1.5 has recently been released with improved WINDOWS compatibility and graphics functions. DAS 2.0 will incorporate guideline changes in a forthcoming revision to NASA Safety Standard 1740.14. Whereas DAS contains a simplified model to calculate possible risks associated with satellite reentries, NASA's higher fidelity Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been upgraded to Version 5.0. With the growing awareness of the potential risks posed by uncontrolled satellite reentries to people and property on Earth, the application of both DAS and ORSAT has increased markedly in the past two years.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Cost and schedule estimation study report

This report describes the analysis performed and the findings of a study of the software development cost and schedule estimation models used by the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD), Goddard Space Flight Center. The study analyzes typical FDD projects, focusing primarily on those developed since 1982. The study reconfirms the standard SEL effort estimation model that is based on size adjusted for reuse; however, guidelines for the productivity and growth parameters in the baseline effort model have been updated. The study also produced a schedule prediction model based on empirical data that varies depending on application type. Models for the distribution of effort and schedule by life-cycle phase are also presented. Finally, this report explains how to use these models to plan SEL projects.

Condon, Steve↗

NASA NTRS1997

Statistical Modeling of Landscape Pattern and the Effects of Coarse Spatial Resolution

Analysis of classified satellite imagery was conducted to characterize errors in estimates of area based on coarse resolution satellite imagery which are due to distortions in sizes of small fragments, and to explore the feasibility of correcting for these errors using a statistical modeling approach. Sizes of bodies of open water on European Remote-Sensing (ERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and fire scars on Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS) imagery were measured using geographic information system (GIS) software. Statistical analysis of the smaller scars and ponds as observed with this imagery of relatively fine resolution demonstrated that the distribution of the sizes could be modeled by either of two types of statistical distributions-a power distribution related to fractal processes or a simple exponential distribution. A comparison of the size distribution of small burn scars as observed with Landsat with the distribution observed with the much coarser Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery revealed effects of coarse resolution, each of which were associated with a particular size range, and whose net effect accounted for the bias in total burn area due to coarse spatial resolution. Size dependent area correction procedures are therefore feasible. A statistical modeling approach to area estimation, based models of the underlying and observed size distributions of fragments in the scene, may lead to a procedure which requires little or no ancillary data.

Hlavka, C. A.↗