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At least 109 records · Page 6

The risk of solar proton events to space missions

The total dose in rads-tissue from solar protons was tabulated for weekly time intervals, and the number of weeks which gave a dose above 25 rads behind 10 g/sq cm of aluminum for the active 6 years of the 19th cycle were called dangerous or large event weeks. The number of such event weeks was found to be only 3 weeks for the past 20 years. Even though the chance for smaller events is examined, it was found that for any reasonable, high confidence level (95%), the smaller events could be ignored. Consequently, the total particle flux for the 19th cycle was divided by a factor of 3 and determined a single large event week. Using this spectrum, the tissue dose in rads is calculated at the center of an aluminum spherical shell.

Burrell, M. O.↗

Solar neutron decay proton observations in cycle 21

Measurement of the flux and energy spectrum of the protons resulting from the decay of solar flare neutrons gives unique information on the spectrum of neutrons from 5 to 200 MeV. Neutrons from three flares have been observed in this manner during solar cycle 21. The use of the decay protons to determine neutron energy spectra is reviewed, and new and definitive energy spectra are presented for the two large flares on June 3, 1982 and April 25, 1984.

Evenson, Paul↗

Lunar radionuclide records of average solar-cosmic-ray fluxes over the last ten million years

The use of cosmogenic radionuclides in lunar materials as indicators of solar cosmic ray fluxes and thus solar activity over the past 10 million years is discussed. The nature of solar and galactic cosmic ray particles and their interactions with matter are reviewed, with particular emphasis on nuclide production by cosmic-ray-induced nuclear reactions. Evidence of galactic cosmic ray flux variations from measurements of radionuclide activities in meteorites is considered which has indicated changes of less than about 25-50% over the last few million years. Measurements of radionuclide activities in lunar materials which are used to determine solar cosmic ray fluxes are then examined together with direct proton measurements indicating variations in solar fluxes with different solar cycles. It is noted that whereas average solar proton fluxes determined for the last 1-10 million years from Al-26 and Mn-53 data show little variation and are similar to recent values, lunar C-14 and Kr-81 activities indicate average solar proton fluxes several times greater over the past 10,000 to 100,000 years.

Reedy, R. C.↗

NASA's future space power needs and requirements

The National Space Policy of 1988 established the U.S.'s long-range civil space goals, and has served to guide NASA's recent planning for future space mission operations. One of the major goals was to extend the human presence beyond earth's boundaries and to advance the scientific knowledge of the solar system. A broad spectrum of potential civil space mission opportunities and interests are currently being investigated by NASA to meet the espoused goals. Participation in many of these missions requires power systems with capabilities far beyond what exists today. In other mission examples, advanced power systems technology could enhance mission performance significantly. Power system requirements and issues that need resolution to ensure eventual mission accomplishment are addressed, in conjunction with the ongoing NASA technology development efforts and the need for even greater innovative efforts to match the ambitious solar exploration mission goals. Particular attention is given to potential lunar surface operations and technology goals, based on investigations to date. It is suggested that the nuclear reactor power systems can best meet long-life requirements as well as dramatically reduce the earth-surface-to-lunar-surface transportation costs due to the lunar day/night cycle impact on the solar system's energy storage mass requirements. The state of the art of candidate power systems and elements for the lunar application and the respective exploration technology goals for mission life requirements from 10 to 25 years are examined.

Schnyer, A. D.↗

Sources of Geomagnetic Activity during Nearly Three Solar Cycles (1972-2000)

We examine the contributions of the principal solar wind components (corotating highspeed streams, slow solar wind, and transient structures, i.e., interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs), shocks, and postshock flows) to averages of the aa geomagnetic index and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength in 1972-2000 during nearly three solar cycles. A prime motivation is to understand the influence of solar cycle variations in solar wind structure on long-term (e.g., approximately annual) averages of these parameters. We show that high-speed streams account for approximately two-thirds of long-term aa averages at solar minimum, while at solar maximum, structures associated with transients make the largest contribution (approx. 50%), though contributions from streams and slow solar wind continue to be present. Similarly, high-speed streams are the principal contributor (approx. 55%) to solar minimum averages of the IMF, while transient-related structures are the leading contributor (approx. 40%) at solar maximum. These differences between solar maximum and minimum reflect the changing structure of the near-ecliptic solar wind during the solar cycle. For minimum periods, the Earth is embedded in high-speed streams approx. 55% of the time versus approx. 35% for slow solar wind and approx. 10% for CME-associated structures, while at solar maximum, typical percentages are as follows: high-speed streams approx. 35%, slow solar wind approx. 30%, and CME-associated approx. 35%. These compositions show little cycle-to-cycle variation, at least for the interval considered in this paper. Despite the change in the occurrences of different types of solar wind over the solar cycle (and less significant changes from cycle to cycle), overall, variations in the averages of the aa index and IMF closely follow those in corotating streams. Considering solar cycle averages, we show that high-speed streams account for approx. 44%, approx. 48%, and approx. 40% of the solar wind composition, aa, and the IMF strength, respectively, with corresponding figures of approx. 22%, approx. 32%, and approx. 25% for CME-related structures, and approx. 33%, approx. 19%, and approx. 33% for slow solar wind.

Richardson, I. G.↗

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021

McIntosh and colleagues identified an event in the solar timeline that appeared to play a role in how Sunspot Cycle 23 (SC23) transitioned into Sunspot Cycle 24 (SC24). The timeframe for this transition was rapid, taking place in as short as time as a solar rotation. M2014 inferred that the transition observed was a critical episode for the Sun’s global-scale magnetic field that was being manifest in the spatially and temporally overlapping and magnetic systems belonging to the Sun’s 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle. These events have been dubbed as Hale Cycle terminations, or ‘terminators’ for short. Further exploration revealed a relationship between terminator separation (as a measure of overlap in the Hale Cycles) and the upcoming sunspot cycle amplitude. McIntosh and colleagues extrapolated upon this relationship to identify the termination of the SC24 carrying Hale Cycle band in Mid-2020 and inferred that this would result in a very large Sunspot Cycle 25 (SC25). This paper presents observational analysis of the end of SC24 and the initial months of SC25 growth following a terminator that occurred in mid-December 2021 (approximately 12/13/2021). We use the December 2021 terminator to finalize the forecast of SC25 amplitude 184 (±17 with 95% confidence, and ±63 with 68% confidence). Finally, we use other terminator-related superposed epoch analyses to project the timing of SC25 maxima in late 2023 to mid 2024.

Sun↗

Helium 10830 Angstrom Irradiance: 1975-1983

A fairly complete time series from late 1974 to mid-1983 is available of values of the equivalent width of the He I 10830A chromospheric spectrum line averaged over the visible solar disk. Variation from about 25 mA in 1975 to about 80 mA in late 1981 is the major component of the signal. The 10830 variation reaches minimum about a year before the sunspot minimum and reaches maximum about a year after sunspot maximum. Superposed on the solar cycle variation is a modulation of up to + or - 13 mAdu to the passage of active regions across the disk. Power spectral analysis of the time series shows a major peak at a synodic rotation period of 27.42 days and smaller peaks at 1/2, 1/4 and 1/6 of this period. The spectrum is well modeled by a basic fluctuating component with an exponentially decaying autocovariance function of scale time of 43 days. Analysis of the data indicates that the rotational modulation occurs in episodes that last from 4 to 10 rotations. These episodes arise when active regions tend to occur in a limited longitude range. The analysis also shows that the apparent rotation period increased from 1977 to 1981. The apparent rotation period since 1981 is markedly shorter.

Harvey, J. W.↗

Wave Driven Non-linear Flow Oscillator for the 22-Year Solar Cycle

In the Earth's atmosphere, a zonal flow oscillation is observed with periods between 20 and 32 months, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation. This oscillation does not require external time dependent forcing but is maintained by non-linear wave momentum deposition. It is proposed that such a mechanism also drives long-period oscillations in planetary and stellar interiors. We apply this mechanism to generate a flow oscillation for the 22-year solar cycle. The oscillation would occur just below the convective envelope where waves can propagate. Using scale analysis, we present results from a simplified model that incorporates Hines' gravity wave parameterization. Wave amplitudes less than 10 m/s can produce reversing zonal flows of 25 m/s that should be sufficient to generate a corresponding oscillation in the poloidal magnetic field. Low buoyancy frequency and the associated increase in turbulence help to produce the desired oscillation period of the flow.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

Intense magnetic fields at 1 AU: Solar cycle 20

Of the intense magnetic fields (greater than 13 gamma) observed at 1 AU during solar cycle 20 (1973-1975), 92% were associated with shocks, stream interfaces, or cold magnetic enhancements (CMEs). Most (52%) of the magnetic field intensity enhancements occurred at stream interfaces; 27% occurred behind shocks without interfaces; and 11% occurred in CMEs. The most intense fields (25 gamma to 37 gamma) followed shocks. Magnetic field intensities at interfaces did not exceed 25 gamma, suggesting a mechanism such as a magnetoacoustic wave limits the intensity ahead of streams. Intense magnetic fields persist longest behind shocks.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

The High-energy Radiation Environment around a 10 Gyr M Dwarf: Habitable at Last?

Recent work has demonstrated that high levels of X-ray and UV activity on young M dwarfs may drive rapid atmospheric escape on temperate, terrestrial planets orbiting within the habitable zone. However, secondary atmospheres on planets orbiting older, less active M dwarfs may be stable and present more promising candidates for biomarker searches. In order to evaluate the potential habitability of Earth-like planets around old, inactive M dwarfs, we present new Hubble Space Telescope and Chandra X-ray Observatory observations of Barnard’s Star (GJ 699), a 10 Gyr old M3.5 dwarf, acquired as part of the Mega-MUSCLES program. Despite the old age and long rotation period of Barnard’s Star, we observe two FUV (δ 130 ≈ 5000 s; E 130 ≈ 10 29.5 erg each) and one X-ray (E X ≈ 10 29.2 erg) flares, and we estimate a high-energy flare duty cycle (defined here as the fraction of the time the star is in a flare state) of ~25%. A publicly available 5 Å to 10 μm spectral energy distribution of GJ 699 is created and used to evaluate the atmospheric stability of a hypothetical, unmagnetized terrestrial planet in the habitable zone (r HZ ~ 0.1 au). Both thermal and nonthermal escape modeling indicate (1) the quiescent stellar XUV flux does not lead to strong atmospheric escape: atmospheric heating rates are comparable to periods of high solar activity on modern Earth, and (2) the flare environment could drive the atmosphere into a hydrodynamic loss regime at the observed flare duty cycle: sustained exposure to the flare environment of GJ 699 results in the loss of ≈87 Earth atmospheres Gyr -1 through thermal processes and ≈3 Earth atmospheres Gyr -1 through ion loss processes. These results suggest that if rocky planet atmospheres can survive the initial ~5 Gyr of high stellar activity, or if a second-generation atmosphere can be formed or acquired, the flare duty cycle may be the controlling stellar parameter for the stability of Earth-like atmospheres around old M stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The 25 kN space station

The capabilities of photovoltaic, nuclear reactor, and solar thermal systems are assessed for the space construction base. Topics covered include Brayton conversion, thermionic conversion, and thermo-electric conversion. The effectiveness of nickel cadmium and nickel hydrogen batteries are discussed as well as that of regenerative fuel cells. The verification of long cycle life for nickel hydrogen systems is recommended.

Clark, B.↗

Observational requirements for measurements of solar rotation inward to the base of the convection zone

Measurements of the rate of rotation at various depths in the solar interior and of temporal changes in the rotation are discussed. A technique to measure the absolute rate of the Sun's rotation (in meters per second) below its visible surface over the outer 3% of its radius using ground based equipment is described. The theory of the technique, developed to the base of the solar convection zone is analyzed. It is stressed that such deeper rotational measurements, extending from 3% inward to 25 to 30% of the Sun's radius can only be obtained from a spaceborne instrument which is not subject to the normal Earth based day-night observing cycle.

Rhodes, E. J., Jr.↗

The primary cosmic ray electron spectrum 1978-1980

In August of 1978 the ISEE-3 spacecraft carried the University of Chicago electron spectrometer into interplanetary space. Strong intensity variations of Jovian electrons have been observed in the energy range from 5 to 25 MeV in conjunction with 3 Jovian seasons. The spectral shape of the extra electrons has a shallow maximum around 15 MeV. No measurable long term variation in the average electron spectrum has been observed since 1968 up to energies of about 50 MeV. However, strong solar cycle modulation occurs at energies around a few hundred MeV.

Evenson, P.↗

Heavy-Element Abundances in Solar Energetic Particle Events

We survey the relative abundances of elements with 1 less than or = Z less than or = 82 in solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed at 2 - 10 MeV amu" during nearly 9 years aboard the Wind spacecraft, with special emphasis on enhanced abundances of elements with 2Z greater than or = 34. Abundances of Fe/O again show a bimodal distribution with distinct contributions from impulsive and gradual SEP events as seen in earlier solar cycles. Periods with greatly enhanced abundances of (50 less than or = Z less than or = 56)/O, like those with enhanced He-3/He-4, fall prominently in the Fe-rich population of the impulsive SEP events. In a sample of the 39 largest impulsive events, 25 have measurable enhancements in (50 less than or = Z less than or = 56)/O and (76 less than or = Z less than or = 82)/O, relative to coronal values, ranging from approx. 100 to 10,000. By contrast, in a sample of 45 large gradual events the corresponding enhancements vary from approx. 0.2 to 20. However, the magnitude of the heavy-element enhancements in impulsive events is less striking than their strong correlation with the Fe spectral index and flare size, with the largest enhancements occurring in flares with the steepest Fe spectra, the smallest Fe fluence, and the lowest X-ray intensity, as reported here for the first time Thus it seem that small events with low energy input can produce only steep spectra of the dominant species but accelerate rare heavy elements with great efficiency, probably by selective absorption of resonant waves in the flare plasma. With increased energy input, enhancements diminish, as heavy ions are depleted, and spectra of the dominant species harden.

Reames, Donald V.↗

Heavy-Element Abundances in Solar Energetic Particle Events

We survey the relative abundances of elements with 1 < or equal to Z < or equal to 82 in solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed at 2-10 MeV/amu during nearly 9 years aboard the Wind spacecraft, with special emphasis on enhanced abundances of elements with Z > or equal to 34. Abundances of Fe/O again show a bimodal distribution with distinct contributions from impulsive and gradual SEP events as seen in earlier solar cycles. Periods with greatly enhanced abundances of (50 < or equal to Z < or equal to 56)/O, like those with enhanced (3)He/(4)He, fall prominently in the Fe-rich population of the impulsive SEP events. In a sample of the 39 largest impulsive events, 25 have measurable enhancements in (50 < or equal to z < or equal to 56)/O and (76 < or equal to Z < or equal to 82)/O, relative to coronal values, ranging from approx. 100 to 10,000. By contrast, in a sample of 45 large gradual events the corresponding enhancements vary from approx. 0.2 to 20. However, the magnitude of the heavy-element enhancements in impulsive events is less striking than their strong correlation with the Fe spectral index and flare size, with the largest enhancements occurring in flares with the steepest Fe spectra, the smallest Fe fluence, and the lowest X-ray intensity, as reported here for the first time. Thus it seems that small events with low energy input can produce only steep spectra of the dominant species but accelerate rare heavy elements with great efficiency, probably by selective absorption of resonant waves in the flare plasma. With increased energy input, enhancements diminish, as heavy ions are depleted, and spectra of the dominant species harden.

Reames, D. V.↗

Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Model Results using Long-Term Satellite and Ground-Based Data

Chemistry-climate models attempt to bring together our best knowledge of the key processes that govern the composition of the atmosphere and its response to changes in forcing. We test these models on a process by process basis by comparing model results to data from many sources. A more difficult task is testing the model response to changes. One way to do this is to use the natural and anthropogenic experiments that have been done on the atmosphere and are continuing to be done. These include the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Pinatubo, the solar cycle, and the injection of chlorine and bromine from CFCs and methyl bromide. The test of the model's response to these experiments is their ability to produce the long-term variations in ozone and the trace gases that affect ozone. We now have more than 25 years of satellite ozone data. We have more than 15 years of satellite and ground-based data of HC1, HN03, and many other gases. I will discuss the testing of models using long-term satellite data sets, long-term measurements from the Network for Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) , long-term ground-based measurements of ozone.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗

Evaluation of Ceramic Heat Exchanger for Next-Generation Concentrated Solar Power

The U.S. Department of Energy has identified a third generation of concentrated solar power (Gen3 CSP) technologies to minimize cost of CSP produced electricity. By developing these technologies further, it is forecasted that Gen3 CSP will meet the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) SunShot target of 6 cents/kWh to compete with dominant, conventional nonrenewable energy sources (1). The focus for advancing CSP systems for Gen3 is to increase overall system efficiency. Thus, reevaluating second-generation systems, superheated steam-turbine power cycles, and implementing more advanced power cycles is essential. Specifically, it has been identified that a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) Brayton cycle can increase the net thermal-to-electric efficiency to over 50% for CSP power tower configurations (2). Compared to conventional superheated steam Rankine cycle systems, more extreme operating conditions are required and pose critical barriers to overcome in the field of materials and manufacturing for Gen3 CSP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Activity and its Impact on Earth's Climate

The Sun's activity is now approaching an expected 2006 minimum, following the dramatic maximum of Solar Cycle 23, that included events such as the 2001 "Bastille Day" Coronal Mass Ejection, and the record-setting Oct-Nov 2003 solar flares, with their associated sunspots and variations in Total Solar Irradiance, or TSI. On Nov 4,2003 the largest X-ray flare ever detected (X-28) was observed in detail. We discuss recent satellite measurements of TSI by ACRIM 2 and 3 and Virgo, and new precision observations of TSI and SSI (Solar Spectral Irradiance) from the SORCE mission, that launched on January 25,2003. TSI variations recorded during the June 8,2004 transit of Venus show the unprecedented precision of the SORCE Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) instrument, the first of its kind to employ phase-sensitive detection. The SORCE spectral instruments, XPS, Solstice, and SIM, record the Sun's changes over a wide range of wavelengths, from 1 to more than 2000 nanometers, for the first time covering the peak of the solar spectrum, including spectral components that provide energy inputs to key components of the climate system - ultraviolet (UV) into the upper atmospheric ozone layer, infrared (IR) into the lower atmosphere and clouds, and Visible into the Oceans and biosphere. Succeeding satellite missions are planned to monitor both TSI and SSI through Cycle 24. We summarize current ideas about decadal and longer solar variability, and associated potential impacts on Earth's climate on time scales from decades to centuries, especially highlighting the role of feedbacks in the climate system.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗