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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Satellite Reentry Predictions During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Prediction of uncontrolled satellite reentry time and trajectory are essential to avoid damages to human being and properties over land. Reentry time and trajectory are largely controlled by aerodynamic drag and mass neutral density below 200 km. In this paper, using a numerical model of the whole atmosphere, WACCM‐X, and a Precision Orbital Determination software, we demonstrate the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009, during the deep solar minimum of 2009, may cause 0.2–0.3 day of variation in reentry time. The SSW can alter the mass density and composition mixing ratio in the lower thermosphere below 200 km through changed wave forcing and general circulation in the lower thermosphere. This is comparable to the effect of a 2‐SFU (Solar Flux Unit) solar radiance variation on the neutral density. 0.1 day of reentry time uncertainty corresponds to a global shift in impact location, that is, thousands of kilometers distance. For comparison, a major SSW during solar maximum contributes little to reentry time variation, which is predominantly controlled by the solar and geomagnetic forcing. We suggest a few proxies such as O/N 2 in the lower thermosphere or mean meridional wind to account for the lower atmosphere impacts in an operational model. This needs to be investigated in rigorous future work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exosphere Modeling of Proxima b: A Case Study of Photochemical Escape with a Venus-like Atmosphere

Exoplanets orbiting M dwarfs within habitable zones are exposed to stellar environments more extreme than that terrestrial planets experience in our solar system, which can significantly impact the atmospheres of the exoplanets and affect their habitability and sustainability. This study provides the first prediction of hot oxygen corona structure and the associated photochemical loss from a 1 bar CO 2 -dominated atmosphere of a Venus-like rocky exoplanet, where dissociative recombination of O 2 + ions is assumed to be the major source reaction for the escape of neutral O atoms and formation of the hot O corona (or exospheres) as on Mars and Venus. We employ a 3D Monte Carlo code to simulate the exosphere of Proxima Centauri b (PCb) based on the ionosphere simulated by a 3D magnetohydrodynamic model. Our simulation results show that variability of the stellar wind dynamic pressure over one orbital period of PCb does not affect the overall spatial structure of the hot O corona but contributes to the change in the global hot O escape rate that varies by an order of magnitude. The escape increases dramatically when the planet possesses its intrinsic magnetic fields as the ionosphere becomes more extended with the presence of a global magnetic field. Furthermore, the extended hot O corona may lead to a more extended H exosphere through collisions between thermal H and hot O, which exemplifies the importance of considering nonthermal populations in exospheres to interpret future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT ‘EM) Survey. II. Discovery of a Failed Hot Jupiter on a 2.7 Yr, Highly Eccentric Orbit

Radial velocity (RV) surveys have discovered giant exoplanets on au-scale orbits with a broad distribution of eccentricities. Those with the most eccentric orbits are valuable laboratories for testing theories of high-eccentricity migration. However, few such exoplanets transit their host stars, thus removing the ability to apply constraints on formation from their bulk internal compositions. We report the discovery of Kepler-1704 b, a transiting 4.15 M {sub J} giant planet on a 988.88 day orbit with an extreme eccentricity of 0.921{sub -0.015}{sup +0.010}. Our decade-long RV baseline from the Keck I telescope allows us to measure the orbit and bulk heavy-element composition of Kepler-1704 b and place limits on the existence of undiscovered companions. A failed hot Jupiter, Kepler-1704 b was likely excited to high eccentricity by scattering events that possibly began during its gas accretion phase. Its final periastron distance was too large to allow for tidal circularization, so now it orbits its host from distances spanning 0.16–3.9 au. The maximum difference in planetary equilibrium temperature resulting from this elongated orbit is over 700 K. A simulation of the thermal phase curve of Kepler-1704 b during periastron passage demonstrates that it is a remarkable target for atmospheric characterization from the James Webb Space Telescope, which could potentially also measure the planet’s rotational period as the hot spot from periastron rotates in and out of view. Continued characterization of the Kepler-1704 system promises to refine theories explaining the formation of hot Jupiters and cool giant planets like those in the solar system.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Impact of galactic cosmic ray simulation on nutritional content of foods

Foods packaged for future deep-space exploration missions may be prepositioned ahead of astronaut arrival, and will be exposed to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar radiation in deep space at higher levels and different spectrums than those found in low-Earth orbit (LEO). In this study, we have evaluated the impact of a GCR simulation (approximately 0.5 and 5 Gy doses) at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) on two retort thermostabilized food products that are good sources of radiation labile nutrients (thiamin, vitamin E, or unsaturated fats). No trends or nutritional differences were found between the radiation-treated samples and the control immediately after treatment or one-year after treatment. Small changes in a few nutrients were measured following one-year of storage. Further studies are needed to confirm these results, as the foods in this study were heterogeneous, and this may have masked meaningful changes due to pouch-to-pouch variations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Extensive Secondary Cratering From the InSight Sol 1034a Impact Event

Abstract Impact cratering is one of the fundamental processes throughout the history of the Solar System. The formation of new impact craters on planetary bodies has been observed with repeat images from orbiting satellites. However, the time gap between images is often large enough to preclude detailed analysis of smaller‐scale features such as secondary impact craters, which are often removed or buried over a short time period. Here we use a seismic event detected on Mars by the NASA InSight mission to investigate secondary cratering at a new impact crater. We strengthen the case that the seismic event that occurred on Sol 1034 (S1034a) is the result of a new impact cratering event. Using the exact timing of this event from InSight, we investigated the resulting new impact crater in orbital image data. The S1034a impact crater is approximately 9 m in diameter but is responsible for over 900 secondary impact events in the form of low albedo spots that are located at distances of up to almost 7 km from the primary crater. We suggest that the low albedo spots formed from relatively low energy ejecta, with individual ejecta block velocities less than 200 m s −1 . We estimate that the low albedo spots, the main evidence of secondary impact processes at this new impact event, fade within 200–300 days after formation.

Grindrod, P. M. [Natural History Museum London UK]↗

Effects of spin-orbit coupling and very large supercells on the description of acceptors in CdTe

Predicting accurate shallow donor and acceptor levels in semiconductors has been quite challenging using periodic boundary conditions as implemented in current density functional theory codes. The reason is that the wave functions associated with the shallow centers are quite extended and are not fully contained in the supercell (typically with a few hundred atoms) so impurities in the periodically repeated image cells interact with each other. Errors of ~0.1 eV are expected, and these are of the same order of magnitude as the ionization energies themselves. In the case of acceptors in CdTe, this problem is exacerbated by the strong spin-orbit coupling that split the Te-related states at the top of the valence band, making the calculations at least 8 times more expensive. CdTe is an important solar-cell material with record high efficiency of 22%. One of the main limiting factors to increasing the efficiency towards the theoretical limit of ~30% is the often reported very low hole concentration. Pushing to the limit of computational capability by using very large supercells with spin-orbit coupling we report the results of hybrid functional calculations of group-V acceptors in CdTe. We show that extrapolation to the dilute limit leads to an interpretation of the experimental data that is qualitatively different from previous DFT and hybrid functional calculation reports. We find that the group-V impurities indeed behave as shallow acceptors and that the corresponding compensating AX-centers are unstable and do not limit p-type doping. We address the differences between our results and previous theoretical predictions and show that our calculated ionization energies predict hole concentrations that are in excellent agreement with recent temperature-dependent Hall measurements on high-quality single-crystal samples.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Three-body capture, ejection, and the demographics of bound objects in binary systems

ABSTRACT We study the capture of light objects of arbitrary velocity by binary systems. Extending results for the capture of comets in the Solar system, we develop a simple geometric characterization of the capture cross-section, leading directly to the distribution of orbital parameters of captured objects. We use the same framework to study the lifetimes of these bound orbits prior to ejection, and find that a simplified version of the Öpik–Arnold approach readily yields a closed-form estimate for the ejection rate that agrees well with numerical experiments. Without any detailed-balance assumptions, our results make manifest the characteristics of close encounters leading to capture and ejection. As an application of our results, we demonstrate the estimation of the equilibrium population of captured dark matter particles in a binary system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predicting Cislunar Orbit Lifetimes from Initial Orbital Elements

The volume of space between Earth’s geosynchronous orbit out to the Moon’s sphere of influence, including the lunar Lagrange points, is crucial for the successful planning and execution of space missions, but not fully understood dynamically. This region is a part of cislunar space. Trajectories through cislunar space are influenced by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and other Solar System planets leading to typically unpredictable and chaotic trajectory behavior. It is therefore difficult to predict the stability of an trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial conditions or orbital elements. We simulate one million cislunar orbits to train a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the trajectories and orbits into families based on how long they remain stable within the cislunar space. Using the trained SOM, we are able to predict the stable lifetime of a trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial orbital elements to within an accuracy of 10% for 8% of simulated trajectories and within 50% for 43% of the simulated trajectories. Clustering in the SOM suggests that a variety of trajectory morphologies have similar lifetimes. Once trained, the SOM can predict the stable lifetime of a given cislunar trajectory within milliseconds. The methods developed in this work enable the rapid identification of stable cislunar orbits and trajectories that could be used for future space exploration. Moreover, the developed SOM method can generate orbital and trajectory lifetime estimates from minimal observational data, such as a single two line element, making it useful for early warning systems and large-scale sensor network operations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Machine Learning for Searching the Dark Energy Survey for Trans-Neptunian Objects

In this paper we investigate how implementing machine learning could improve the efficiency of the search for Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) within Dark Energy Survey (DES) data when used alongside orbit fitting. The discovery of multiple TNOs that appear to show a similarity in their orbital parameters has led to the suggestion that one or more undetected planets, an as yet undiscovered “Planet 9”, may be present in the outer solar system. DES is well placed to detect such a planet and has already been used to discover many other TNOs. Here, we perform tests on eight different supervised machine learning algorithms, using a data set consisting of simulated TNOs buried within real DES noise data. We found that the best performing classifier was the Random Forest which, when optimized, performed well at detecting the rare objects. We achieve an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, (AUC) = 0.996 ± 0.001. After optimizing the decision threshold of the Random Forest, we achieve a recall of 0.96 while maintaining a precision of 0.80. Finally, by using the optimized classifier to pre-select objects, we are able to run the orbit-fitting stage of our detection pipeline five times faster.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

No Evidence for Orbital Clustering in the Extreme Trans-Neptunian Objects

The apparent clustering in longitude of perihelion piv and ascending node Ω of extreme trans-Neptunian objects (ETNOs) has been attributed to the gravitational effects of an unseen 5–10 Earth-mass planet in the outer solar system. To investigate how selection bias may contribute to this clustering, we consider 14 ETNOs discovered by the Dark Energy Survey, the Outer Solar System Origins Survey, and the survey of Sheppard and Trujillo. Using each survey's published pointing history, depth, and TNO tracking selections, we calculate the joint probability that these objects are consistent with an underlying parent population with uniform distributions in $\bar{w}$ and Ω. We find that the mean scaled longitude of perihelion and orbital poles of the detected ETNOs are consistent with a uniform population at a level between 17% and 94% and thus conclude that this sample provides no evidence for angular clustering.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Milky Way archaeology using RR Lyrae and type II Cepheids: II. High-velocity RR Lyrae stars and Milky Way mass

We report the discovery of high-velocity candidates among RR Lyrae stars found in the Milky Way halo. We identified nine RR Lyrae stars with Galactocentric velocities exceeding the local escape velocity based on the assumed Galaxy potential. Furthermore, based on a close examination of their orbits’, we ruled out their ejection location in the Milky Way disk and bulge. The spatial distribution revealed that seven out of nine pulsators overlap with the position of the Sagittarius stellar stream. Two out of these seven RR Lyrae stars can be tentatively linked to the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy on the basis of their orbits. Focusing on the high-velocity tail of the RR Lyrae velocity distribution, we estimated the escape velocity in the Solar neighborhood to be v esc = 512$_{-37}^{+94}$ km s -1 (4 to 12 kpc); and beyond the Solar neighborhood as v esc = 436$_{-22}^{+44}$ km s -1 and v esc = 393$_{-26}^{+53}$ km s -1 (for distances between 12 to 20 kpc and 20 to 28 kpc), respectively. We utilized three escape velocity estimates together with the local circular velocity to estimate the Milky Way mass. The resulting measurement M 200 = 0.83$_{-0.16}^{+0.29}$ x 10 12 M ⊙ falls on the lower end of the current Milky Way mass estimates, but once corrected for the likely bias in the escape velocity (an increase of approximately 10% in terms of the escape velocity), our mass estimate yields M 200 = 1.26$_{-0.22}^{+0.40}$ x 10 12 M ⊙ which is in agreement with estimates based on different diagnostics of the Milky Way (MW) mass. The MW mass of within 20 kpc then corresponds to M MW (r , 20 kpc) = 1.9$_{-0.1}^{+0.2}$ x 10 11 M ⊙ without any correction for bias, and M MW (r , 20 kpc) = 2.1$_{-0.1}^{+0.2}$ x 10 11 M ⊙ corrected for a likely offset in escape velocities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Separation and Hα Contrasts of Massive Accreting Planets in the Gaps of Transitional Disks: Predicted Hα Protoplanet Yields for Adaptive Optics Surveys

We present a massive accreting gap planet model that ensures large gaps in transitional disks are kept dust free by the scattering action of three coplanar quasi-circular planets in a 1:2:4 mean motion resonance (MMR). This model uses the constraint of the observed gap size, and the dust-free nature of the gap, to determine within ∼10% the possible orbits for three massive planets in an MMR. Calculated orbits are consistent with the observed orbits and Hα emission (the brightest line to observe these planets) for LkCa 15 b, PDS 70 b, and PDS 70 c within observational errors. Moreover, the model suggests that the scarcity of detected Hα planets is likely a selection effect of the current limitations of non-coronagraphic, low (<10%) Strehl, Hα imaging with adaptive optics (AO) systems used in past Hα surveys. We predict that as higher Strehl AO systems (with high-performance custom coronagraphs; like the 6.5 m Magellan Telescope MagAO-X system) are utilized at Hα, the number of detected gap planets will substantially increase by more than tenfold. For example, we show that >25 ± 5 new Hα “gap planets” are potentially discoverable by a survey of the best 19 transitional disks with MagAO-X. Detections of these accreting protoplanets will significantly improve our understanding of planet formation, planet growth and accretion, solar system architectures, and planet–disk interactions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Detection Limits of Low-mass, Long-period Exoplanets Using Gaussian Processes Applied to HARPS-N Solar Radial Velocities

Radial velocity (RV) searches for Earth-mass exoplanets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars are limited by the effects of stellar variability on the host star. In particular, suppression of convective blueshift and brightness inhomogeneities due to photospheric faculae/plage and starspots are the dominant contribution to the variability of such stellar RVs. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful tool for statistically modeling these quasi-periodic variations. We investigate the limits of this technique using 800 days of RVs from the solar telescope on the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher for the Northern hemisphere (HARPS-N) spectrograph. These data provide a well-sampled time series of stellar RV variations. Into this data set, we inject Keplerian signals with periods between 100 and 500 days and amplitudes between 0.6 and 2.4 m s{sup −1}. We use GP regression to fit the resulting RVs and determine the statistical significance of recovered periods and amplitudes. We then generate synthetic RVs with the same covariance properties as the solar data to determine a lower bound on the observational baseline necessary to detect low-mass planets in Venus-like orbits around a Sun-like star. Our simulations show that discovering planets with a larger mass (∼0.5 m s{sup −1}) using current-generation spectrographs and GP regression will require more than 12 yr of densely sampled RV observations. Furthermore, even with a perfect model of stellar variability, discovering a true exo-Venus (∼0.1 m s{sup −1}) with current instruments would take over 15 yr. Therefore, next-generation spectrographs and better models of stellar variability are required for detection of such planets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Lunar Farside Low Radio Frequency Array for Dark Ages 21-cm Cosmology

An array of low-frequency dipole antennas on the lunar farside surface will probe a unique, unexplored epoch in the early Universe called the Dark Ages. It begins at Recombination when neutral hydrogen atoms formed, first revealed by the cosmic microwave background. This epoch is free of stars and astrophysics, so it is ideal to investigate high energy particle processes including dark matter, early Dark Energy, neutrinos, and cosmic strings. A NASA-funded study investigated the design of the instrument and the deployment strategy from a lander of 128 pairs of antenna dipoles across a 10 kmx10 km area on the lunar surface. The antenna nodes are tethered to the lander for central data processing, power, and data transmission to a relay satellite. The array, named FARSIDE, would provide the capability to image the entire sky in 1400 channels spanning frequencies from 100 kHz to 40 MHz, extending down two orders of magnitude below bands accessible to ground-based radio astronomy. The lunar farside can simultaneously provide isolation from terrestrial radio frequency interference, the Earth's auroral kilometric radiation, and plasma noise from the solar wind. It is thus the only location within the inner solar system from which sky noise limited observations can be carried out at sub-MHz frequencies. Through precision calibration via an orbiting beacon and exquisite foreground characterization, the farside array would measure the Dark Ages global 21-cm signal at redshifts z~35-200. It will also be a pathfinder for a larger 21-cm power spectrum instrument by carefully measuring the foreground with high dynamic range.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Material erosion measurements and expected operational lifetime of a deployable photon sieve payload

Spacecraft operating in low-Earth orbit are subjected to a number of hazardous environmental constituents that can lead to decreased system performance and reduced operational lifetimes. Due to their thermal, optical, and mechanical properties, polymers are used extensively in space systems; however they are particularly susceptible to material erosion and degradation as a result of exposure to the LEO environment. The focus of this research is to examine the material erosion and mass loss experienced by a custom Kaptonlike polyimide due to exposure in a simulated low-earth orbit environment. The deployable membrane telescope design discussed in this research is named Peregrine and is the scientific payload for FalconSat-7, a 3U cubesat designed and developed at the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) for the purpose of demonstrating the capability of deployable membrane telescope technology on a nanosatellite platform. In addition to the polymer samples, chrome, silver and gold specimens will be examined to measure the oxidation rate and act as a control specimen, respectively. A magnetically filtered atomic oxygen plasma source has previously been developed and characterized for the purpose of simulating the low-Earth orbit environment. The plasma source can be operated at a variety of discharge currents and gas flow rates, of which the plasma parameters downstream of the source are dependent. The characteristics of the generated plasma were examined as a function of these operating parameters to optimize the production of O + ions with energy relevant to LEO applications. The erosion yield of the Kapton-like polyimide was experimentally determined to be 2.84 x 10 -24 cm 3 per atom which is in close agreement when compared to the on-orbit measurement for reaction efficiency of Kapton HN. We report the experimentally determined reaction rate for the Kapton-like polyimide was used to estimate the operational lifetime of the photon sieve during the solar conditions expected beginning in May 2019. The effective lifetime is estimated between 126 and 153 days.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗