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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Machine Learning and Economic Models to Enable Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance of a Nuclear Plant Asset

The primary objective of this research is to address challenges in the implementation of risk-informed, condition-based predictive maintenance (PdM), which reduces operating costs while still maintaining the safety and reliability of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To achieve the objective, risk models are being developed by taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, deep learning, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI). The notable outcomes presented in the report include ? Development of a ML models using heterogeneous plant process and vibration data collected at different spatial and temporal resolutions from the Salem?s CWS to diagnose a circulating water pump (CWP) failure based on salient fault signatures. The developed diagnostic models are extendable to other faults associated with CWPs and CWP motors given associated fault signatures. ? Development of a natural language processing (NLP) technique to automatically classify the WO data into different categories. The developed NLP technique was validated on independent WO data. This automates the tedious and time-consuming activity of mining and classifying WOs by subject matter experts. ? Estimation of mean time between downtime (i.e., time duration between time instances when 1 or more CWPs are not available) and developed an approach to establish reliability of CWS components using unstructured WO data along with CWS plant process data. ? Formulation of economic model based on Markov chain models. The parameters of associated with the transition rate between different states of Markov chain models were estimated using WO data. The economic model formulation and discussion captures both time-independent and time-dependent parameter variation, leading to risk-informed decision-making.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Data Mining of NASA Boeing 737 Flight Data: Frequency Analysis of In-Flight Recorded Data

Data recorded during flights of the NASA Trailblazer Boeing 737 have been analyzed to ascertain the presence of aircraft structural responses from various excitations such as the engine, aerodynamic effects, wind gusts, and control system operations. The NASA Trailblazer Boeing 737 was chosen as a focus of the study because of a large quantity of its flight data records. The goal of this study was to determine if any aircraft structural characteristics could be identified from flight data collected for measuring non-structural phenomena. A number of such data were examined for spatial and frequency correlation as a means of discovering hidden knowledge of the dynamic behavior of the aircraft. Data recorded from on-board dynamic sensors over a range of flight conditions showed consistently appearing frequencies. Those frequencies were attributed to aircraft structural vibrations.

Butterfield, Ansel J.↗

Industrial use of land observation satellite systems

The principal industrial users of land observation satellite systems are the geological industries; oil/gas, mining, and engineering/environmental companies. The primary system used is LANDSAT/MSS. Currently, use is also being made of the limited amounts of SKYLAB photography, SEASAT and SIR-A radar, and the new LANDSAT/TM data available. Although considered experimental, LANDSAT data is now used operationally by several hundred exploration and engineering companies worldwide as a vastly improved geological mapping tool to help direct more expensive geophysical and drilling phases, leading to more efficient decision-making and results. Future needs include global LANDSAT/TM; higher spatial resolution; stereo and radar; improved data handling, processing distribution and archiving systems, and integrated geographical information systems (GIS). For a promising future, governments must provide overall continuity (government and/or private sector) of such systems, insure continued government R and D, and commit to operating internationally under the civil Open Skies policy.

Henderson, F. B., III↗

Sustainability Assessment of Coal-Fired Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has the ability to dramatically reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power production. Most studies find the potential for 70 to 80 percent reductions in CO2 emissions on a life-cycle basis, depending on the technology. Because of this potential, utilities and policymakers are considering the wide-spread implementation of CCS technology on new and existing coal plants to dramatically curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the power generation sector. However, the implementation of CCS systems will have many other social, economic, and environmental impacts beyond curbing GHG emissions that must be considered to achieve sustainable energy generation. For example, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SOx), and particulate matter (PM) are also important environmental concerns for coal-fired power plants. For example, several studies have shown that eutrophication is expected to double and acidification would increase due to increases in NOx emissions for a coal plant with CCS provided by monoethanolamine (MEA) scrubbing. Potential for human health risks is also expected to increase due to increased heavy metals in water from increased coal mining and MEA hazardous waste, although there is currently not enough information to relate this potential to actual realized health impacts. In addition to environmental and human health impacts, supply chain impacts and other social, economic, or strategic impacts will be important to consider. A thorough review of the literature for life-cycle analyses of power generation processes using CCS technology via the MEA absorption process, and other energy generation technologies as applicable, yielded large variability in methods and core metrics. Nonetheless, a few key areas of impact for CCS were developed from the studies that we reviewed. These are: the impact of MEA generation on increased eutrophication and acidification from ammonia emissions and increased toxicity from MEA production and the impact of increased coal use including the increased generation of NOx from combustion and transportation, impacts of increased mining of coal and limestone, and the disposal of toxic fly ash and boiler ash waste streams. Overall, the implementing CCS technology could contribute to a dramatic decrease in global GHG emissions, while most other environmental and human health impact categories increase only slightly on a global scale. However, the impacts on human toxicity and ecotoxicity have not been studied as extensively and could have more severe impacts on a regional or local scale. More research is needed to draw strong conclusions with respect to the specific relative impact of different CCS technologies. Specifically, a more robust data set that disaggregates data in terms of component processes and treats a more comprehensive set of environmental impacts categories from a life-cycle perspective is needed. In addition, the current LCA framework lacks the required temporal and spatial scales to determine the risk of environmental impact from carbon sequestration. Appropriate factors to use when assessing the risk of water acidification (groundwater/oceans/aquifers depending on sequestration site), risk of increased human toxicity impact from large accidental releases from pipeline or wells, and the legal and public policy risk associated with licensing CO2 sequestration sites are also not currently addressed. In addition to identifying potential environmental, social, or risk-related issues that could impede the large-scale deployment of CCS, performing LCA-based studies on energy generation technologies can suggest places to focus our efforts to achieve technically feasible, economically viable, and environmentally conscious energy generation technologies for maximum impact.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Discovery of Disease Co-occurrence Patterns from Electronic Healthcare Reimbursement Claims Data

Effective public health surveillance is important for national secu- rity. With novel emerging infectious diseases being reported across different parts of the world, there is a need to build effective bio- surveillance systems that can track, monitor and report such events in a timely manner. Additionally, there is a need to identify sus- ceptible geographic regions/populations where these diseases may have a significant impact and design preemptive strategies to tackle them. With the digitization of health related information through electronic health records (EHR) and electronic healthcare claim re- imbursements (eHCR), there is a tremendous opportunity to ex- ploit these datasets for public health surveillance. In this paper, we present our analysis on the use of eHCR data for bio-surveillance by studying the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic flu season. We present a novel approach to extract spatial and temporal patterns of flu in- cidence across the United States (US) from eHCRs and find that a small, but distinct set of break-out patterns govern the flu and asthma incidence rates across the entire country. Further, we ob- serve a distinct temporal lag in the onset of flu when compared to asthma across geographic regions in the US. The patterns extracted from the data collectively indicate how these break-out patterns are coupled, even though the flu represents an infectious disease whereas asthma represents a typical chronic condition. Taken to- gether, our approach demonstrates how mining eHCRs can provide novel insights in tackling public health concerns.

data analytics↗

Exploiting Spatial Signatures of Power ENF Signal for Measurement Source Authentication

Electric Network Frequency (ENF) signals are the signatures of power systems that are either directly recorded from the power outlets or extracted from multimedia recordings near the electrical activities. Variations of ENF signals collected at different locations possess local environmental characteristics, which can be used as a potential fingerprint for authenticating measurements' source information. Within this paper is proposed a computational intelligence-based framework to recognize the source locations of power ENF signals within a distribution network in the US. To be more specific, a set of informative location-sensitive signatures from ENF measurements are initially extract with such measurements representative of local grid characteristics. Then these distinctive location-dependent signatures are further fed into a data mining algorithm yielding the “source-of-origin” of ENF measurements. Experimental results using ENF data at multiple intra-grid locations have validated the proposed methodology.

CUI, YI↗

Program on stimulating operational private sector use of Earth observation satellite information

Ideas for new businesses specializing in using remote sensing and computerized spatial data systems were developd. Each such business serves as an 'information middleman', buying raw satellite or aircraft imagery, processing these data, combining them in a computer system with customer-specific information, and marketing the resulting information products. Examples of the businesses the project designed are: (1) an agricultural facility site evaluation firm; (2) a mass media grocery price and supply analyst and forecaster; (3) a management service for privately held woodlots; (4) a brokerage for insulation and roofing contractors, based on infrared imagery; (5) an expanded real estate information service. In addition, more than twenty-five other commercially attractive ideas in agribusiness, forestry, mining, real estate, urban planning and redevelopment, and consumer information were created. The commercial feasibility of the five business was assessed. This assessment included market surveys, revenue projections, cost analyses, and profitability studies. The results show that there are large and enthusiastic markets willing to pay for the services these businesses offer, and that the businesses could operate profitably.

Eastwood, L. F., Jr.↗

Value-added Data Services at the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), in addition to serving the Earth Science community as one of the major Distributed Active Archives Centers (DAACs), provides much more than just data. Among the value-added services available to general users are subsetting data spatially and/or by parameter, online analysis (to avoid downloading unnecessarily all the data), and assistance in obtaining data from other centers. Services available to data producers and high-volume users include consulting on building new products with standard formats and metadata and construction of data management systems. A particularly useful service is data processing at the DISC (i.e., close to the input data) with the users algorithm. This can take a number of different forms: as a configuration-managed algorithm within the main processing stream; as a stand-alone program next to the on-line data storage; as build-it-yourself code within the Near-Archive Data Mining (NADM) system; or as an on-the-fly analysis with simple algorithms embedded into the web-based tools. Partnerships between the GES DISC and scientists, both producers and users, allow the scientists to concentrate on science, while the GES DISC handles the data management, e.g., formats, integration, and data processing. The existing data management infrastructure at the GES DISC supports a wide spectrum of options: from simple data support to sophisticated on-line analysis tools, producing economies of scale and rapid time-to-deploy. At the same time, such partnerships allow the GES DISC to serve the user community more efficiently and to better prioritize on-line holdings. Several examples of successful partnerships are described in the presentation.

Leptoukh, Gregory G.↗

Analyzing Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions in California Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations have increased over the past decades and are linked to global temperature increases and climate change. These changes in climate have been suggested to have varying effects, and uncertain consequences, on agriculture, water supply, weather, sea-level rise, the economy, and energy. To counteract the trend of increasing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs, the state of California has passed the California Global Warming Act of 2006 (AB-32). This requires that by the year 2020, GHG (e.g., carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) emissions will be reduced to 1990 levels. To quantify GHG fluxes, emission inventories are routinely compiled for the State of California (e.g., CH4 emissions from the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurement (CALGEM) Project). The major sources of CO2 and CH4 in the state of California are: transportation, electricity production, oil and gas extraction, cement plants, agriculture, landfills/waste, livestock, and wetlands. However, uncertainties remain in these emission inventories because many factors contributing to these processes are poorly quantified. To alleviate these uncertainties, a synergistic approach of applying air-borne measurements and chemical transport modeling (CTM) efforts to provide a method of quantifying local and regional GHG emissions will be performed during this study. Additionally, in order to further understand the temporal and spatial distributions of GHG fluxes in California and the impact these species have on regional climate, CTM simulations of daily variations and seasonality of total column CO2 and CH4 will be analyzed. To assess the magnitude and spatial variation of GHG emissions and to identify local “hot spots”, airborne measurements of CH4 and CO2 were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in January and February 2013 during the Discover-AQ-CA study. High mixing ratios of GHGs were observed in-flight with a high degree of spatial variability. To provide an additional method to quantify GHG emissions, and analyze AJAX measurement data, the GEOS-Chem CTM is used to simulate SFBA/SJV GHG measurements. A nested-grid version of GEOS-Chem will be applied and utilizes varying emission inventories and model parameterizations to simulate GHG fluxes/emissions. The model considers CO2 fluxes from fossil fuel use, biomass/biofuel burning, terrestrial and oceanic biosphere exchanges, shipping and aviation, and production from the oxidation of carbon monoxide, CH4, and non-methane volatile organic carbons. The major sources of CH4 simulated in GEOS-Chem are domesticated animals, rice fields, natural gas leakage, natural gas venting/flaring (oil production), coal mining, wetlands, and biomass burning. Preliminary results from the comparison between available observations (e.g., AJAX and CALGEM CH4 emission maps) and GEOS-Chem results will be presented, along with a discussion of CO2 and CH4 source apportionment and the use of the GEOS-Chem-adjoint to perform inverse GHG modeling.

Johnson, Matthew S.↗

Advanced data mining in field ion microscopy

Field ion microscopy (FIM) allows to image individual surface atoms by exploiting the effect of an intense electric field. Widespread use of atomic resolution imaging by FIM has been hampered by a lack of efficient image processing/data extraction tools. Recent advances in imaging and data mining techniques have renewed the interest in using FIM in conjunction with automated detection of atoms and lattice defects for materials characterization. After a brief overview of existing routines, we review the use of machine learning (ML) approaches for data extraction with the aim to catalyze new data-driven insights into high electrical field physics. Apart from exploring various supervised and unsupervised ML algorithms in this context, we also employ advanced image processing routines for data extraction from large sets of FIM images. The outcomes and limitations of such routines are discussed, and we conclude with the possible application of energy minimization schemes to the extracted point clouds as a way of improving the spatial resolution of FIM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Recursive Hierarchical Image Segmentation by Region Growing and Constrained Spectral Clustering

This paper describes an algorithm for hierarchical image segmentation (referred to as HSEG) and its recursive formulation (referred to as RHSEG). The HSEG algorithm is a hybrid of region growing and constrained spectral clustering that produces a hierarchical set of image segmentations based on detected convergence points. In the main, HSEG employs the hierarchical stepwise optimization (HS WO) approach to region growing, which seeks to produce segmentations that are more optimized than those produced by more classic approaches to region growing. In addition, HSEG optionally interjects between HSWO region growing iterations merges between spatially non-adjacent regions (i.e., spectrally based merging or clustering) constrained by a threshold derived from the previous HSWO region growing iteration. While the addition of constrained spectral clustering improves the segmentation results, especially for larger images, it also significantly increases HSEG's computational requirements. To counteract this, a computationally efficient recursive, divide-and-conquer, implementation of HSEG (RHSEG) has been devised and is described herein. Included in this description is special code that is required to avoid processing artifacts caused by RHSEG s recursive subdivision of the image data. Implementations for single processor and for multiple processor computer systems are described. Results with Landsat TM data are included comparing HSEG with classic region growing. Finally, an application to image information mining and knowledge discovery is discussed.

Tilton, James C.↗

Assessment of Local Observation of Atomic Ordering in Alloys via the Radial Distribution Function: A Computational and Experimental Approach

As a powerful analytical technique, atom probe tomography (APT) has the capacity to acquire the spatial distribution of millions of atoms from a complex sample. However, extracting information at the Ångstrom-scale on atomic ordering remains a challenge due to the limits of the APT experiment and data analysis algorithms. The development of new computational tools enable visualization of the data and aid understanding of the physical phenomena such as disorder of complex crystalline structures. Here, we report progress towards this goal using two steps. We describe a computational approach to evaluate atomic ordering in the crystal structure by generating radial distribution functions (RDF). Atomic ordering is rendered as the Fractional Cumulative Radial Distribution Function (FCRDF) which allows for greater visibility of local compositions at short range in the structure. Further, we accommodate in the analysis additional parameters such as uncertainty in the atomic coordinates and the atomic abundance to ascertain short-range ordering in APT data sets. We applied the FCRDF analysis to synthetic and experimental APT data sets for Ni 3 Al. The ability to observe a signal of atomic ordering consistent with the known L1 2 crystal structure is heavily dependent on spatial uncertainty, irrespective of abundance. Detection of atomic ordering is subject to an upper limit of spatial uncertainty of atoms described with Gaussian distributions with a standard deviation of 1.3 Å. The FCRDF analysis was also applied to the APT data set for a six-component alloy, Al 1.3 CoCrCuFeNi. In this case, we are currently able to visualize elemental segregation at the nanoscale, though unambiguous identification of atomic ordering at the Ångstrom (nearest-neighbor) scale remains a goal.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Surface albedo and reflectance: Review of definitions, angular and spectral effects, and intercomparison of major data sources in support of advanced solar irradiance modeling over the Americas

This study defines albedo and reflectance in the context of solar applications. It examines the main sources of surface albedo data that can be used to help solar irradiance modeling efforts, such as undertaken by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) over the Americas, for instance, per the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The MODIS-based albedo database, as used as input to derive historical time series of solar irradiance in the current version of the NSRDB, is compared to other sources of global gridded data over the Americas in general and some specific areas in particular. The particular role of snow cover is analyzed. It is found that, in the current MODIS-based NSRDB implementation, snow-impacted areas have been assigned a too high albedo in general because of the lack of consideration for the antagonistic effect of surface roughness, among other factors. Other albedo databases, such as CMSAF, MINES-ParisTech or the ERA5 reanalysis, do not display such high albedos at latitudes above ~40 degrees N. The gap-free and snow-free MODIS MCD43GF product is found affected by a long-term downward trend over some areas and out-of-phase seasonal effects over other areas, in comparison with MERRA-2 reanalysis data in particular. Comparisons with actual albedo measurements at the arid Desert Rock site in Nevada also show that albedo data derived from land surface models are affected by systematic bias. Five albedo databases are intercompared for the area around Ivanpah Playa, California, which has great importance in both remote sensing and solar applications. Various aspects of the proper usage of albedo data in solar radiation modeling are discussed, regarding calculations of both the backscattering process and reflections on a tilted surface: spatial resolution, temporal resolution, angular effects, and spectral effects. An important distinction is made between the use of albedo data at ~4 km resolution for backscattering calculations and at ~10 m resolution for transposition calculations to tilted planes, which might additionally require spectral information for monofacial or bifacial PV applications. It is shown that the tilted calculations usually performed in solar resource assessments are far from realistic in the case of most large-scale PV applications, for which a more suitable methodological approach is described. For such needs, the limitations of the current sources of high-resolution reflectance data are discussed. The impact of surface albedo estimation errors on the estimation of backscattered irradiance over snowy areas is evaluated. It is found non-negligible, and even large under cloudy conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The art and power of data imaging

Data imaging and visual data assessment are veritable gold mines in the scientist's quest to understand and accurately interpret numerical data. Graphical displays of various aspects of a dataset offer the analyst insight to the data that no mathematical computation or statistic can provide. It is difficult, at best, for even a skilled and observant statistician to understand the underlying structure of a dataset. Often, there is either too little data to get a good 'picture' of the structure that might be present or there is so much data that one cannot readily assimilate it. Of course, the latter problem (too much data) is, in reality, no problem at all given the abilities of modern computers and software systems to manage large amounts of data. Advances in computer technology and the advent of the global positioning satellite system have enabled scientists from many fields of endeavor to collect and view data in its spatial context. Visual images constructed from spatially referenced data reveal the inherent richness and structure in the data and lead to more informed conclusions. So powerful is data collected with spatial context that a relatively new branch of mathematical statistics, geo-spatial statistics, has emerged. Geo-spatial statistics seek to exploit this context rich data form to better understand the spatial and co-relationships that might exist, but would be otherwise hidden in tabular data or obscured with classic statistical approaches. This paper (and accompanying presentation) will show the power that visual data assessment possesses to understand radiological scanning data and to make confident and accurate decisions based on the data images. It will challenge the traditional mathematical concept of detection limits for scanning. It will demonstrate that more data, even if the individual datum comprising the dataset is of 'poorer quality' (i.e., has a larger uncertainty and, thus, a larger calculated minimum detection value), is significantly more powerful than a smaller dataset comprised of higher quality measurements. This presentation will cause the open-minded health physicist to rethink how they prescribe, collect, evaluate, and make decisions based upon radiological scan data. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Data Driven Smart Proxy for CFD Application of Big Data Analytics & Machine Learning in Computational Fluid Dynamics, Part Three: Model Building at the Layer Level

To ensure the usefulness of simulation technologies in practice, their credibility needs to be established with Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods. In this project smart proxy is introduced to significantly reduce the computational cost of conducting large number of multiphase CFD simulations. Smart proxy for CFD models are developed using pattern recognition capabilities of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (LM) and Data Mining (DM) technologies. Several CFD simulation runs with different inlet air velocities for a rectangular fluidized bed are used to create a smart CFD proxy that is capable of replicating the CFD results for a wide variety of inlet velocities. The smart CFD proxy is validated with blind CFD runs (CFD runs that have not played any role during the development [training, calibration and validation] of the smart CFD proxy). In our earlier work, CFD data was used to train ANN at the cell level. That is an ANN was trained for each computational cell used in the CFD simulations. In the present work, the ANN is constructed and trained based on cross sectional area average of each variable, such as pressure, velocities and volume fraction (Layer Level). This leads to improvements in the training time at the expense of less spatial resolution. The resulting trained ANN provides spatially average value of parameters of interest, along the length of the fluidized bed. Upon completion of this project, UQ studies that rely on hundreds or thousands of smart CFD proxy runs can be accomplished in minutes. Following figure demonstrates a validation example (blind CFD run) showing the results from the MFiX and the smart CFD proxy for pressure drop across a fluidized bed at time-step of 1400 (the layer number corresponds to the vertical location in the bed).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Heart Shape to Fracture Distance: Characterizing Hydraulic Fracture Propagation before Hits

Estimating the distance from the hydraulic fracture tip to the monitor well can be useful for fracture characterization, well spacing optimization, and preventing parent-child well interference. A heart-shaped signal is referred to as the extensional precursor of a fracture hit recorded by crosswell strain measurements and can serve as a vital tool for such estimation. This study incorporates the 3D displacement discontinuity method (DDM) to understand the impact of fracture geometry and monitor well offset on the heart-shaped signal’s characteristics. Results from numerical simulation and analytical solutions reveal a strong linear correlation between the spatial extent of the heart-shaped signal and the fracture tip distance. This relationship was further developed to predict tip distance using field data from the Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2 (HFTS2). A reasonable approximation result from field data further validates the methodology. In addition, it is worth noting that the estimation accuracy depends on the ratio between fracture dimension and tip distance. The findings of this study offer a novel approach for real-time monitoring and characterizing hydraulic fracture propagation, which can be further used for well spacing optimization in unconventional and enhanced geothermal system reservoir development, as well as caprock integrity monitoring for carbon sequestration projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗