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At least 109 records · Page 6

The fossil record of evolution: Analysis of extinction

There is increasing evidence that events in space have had direct effects on Earth history and on the history of life on Earth. Nowhere is this more evident than in mass extinction. The biosphere has undergone repeated devastation caused by relatively short-lived environmental stress, with species kill rates up to 80 and 95%. For five of the mass extinctions, geochemical or other evidence was reported suggesting large body impact as the cause of the environmental stress producing the extinctions. It was argued on statistical ground that the major extinction events are uniformly periodic in geological time. If it is true that large body impact is a principal cause of mass extinctions and if the periodicity is real, than a cosmic driving mechanism is inescapable. Paleontological data sets were developed which detail the ranges in geological time of about 4,000 families and 25,000 genera of fossil marine organisms. Analyses to date have concentrated on the most recent 250 million years. Associated with these studies are analyses of other aspects of Earth history which may have signatures indicative of extraterrestrial effects.

Raup, D. M.↗

Extinction of the Stagnation Point Diffusion Flame: Effect of Conductive Heat Loss into Solid Interior

The flammability boundary of a solid is U-shaped with the ordinate as ambient oxygen percentage (or total pressure) and the abscissa represents flow velocity, gravity level, stretch rate, etc. The left side of the flammability boundary is the quenching branch, and the right side is the blow-off branch. Quenching is due to a weak flame whose heat release from combustion cannot overcome the excessive heat losses from, for example, radiation. Blow-off is due to a short gas residence time that is smaller than the chemical reaction time (traditionally referred to as the small Damköhler number effect). For thick solids, the heat conduction into the solid interior has a long transient after ignition before the solid temperature reaches the steady state. During this slow transient, there is excessive (i.e. more than that at the steady state) gas phase heat conduction into the solid interior. From the viewpoint of the quasi-static gaseous flame, this is an additional heat loss that will affect the gas flame's flammability. In this work, a previously developed one-dimensional axisymmetric stagnation-point diffusion flame model is extended to account for the excessive heat loss into the solid beyond the steady burning state. A non-dimensional excessive conductive heat loss parameter Ψ is defined in the paper to account for the transient solid effect. For each Ψ, the gas phase is considered reaching a quasi-steady state. Extensive numerical computations have been performed to determine the extinction boundary and the characteristics of near-limit flames. The U-shaped flammability boundary is now a series of boundaries with Ψ as a parameter. Flame structures under the same environment condition but with different Ψ are compared. For a given oxygen ambient, the extinction boundary Ψ vs stretch rate is an inverted U-shape. The boundary consists of a blowoff branch and a radiative quenching branch. Extensive computed data including flame and pyrolysis temperatures, burning rate, flame standoff distance, species concentration, and reaction rate are presented along the extinction boundaries. Heat balance analysis is performed for both the gas phase and the gas-solid interface. Along the extinction boundary, the relative importance of conduction, convection, radiation, and chemical reaction are analyzed in detail.

Stagnation point diffusion flame↗

Critical Slowing Down in Time-to-Extinction: An Example of Critical Phenomena in Ecology

We study a model for two competing species that explicitly accounts for effects due to discreteness, stochasticity and spatial extension of populations. The two species are equally preferred by the environment and do better when surrounded by others of the same species. We observe that the final outcome depends on the initial densities (uniformly distributed in space) of the two species. The observed phase transition is a continuous one and key macroscopic quantities like the correlation length of clusters and the time-to-extinction diverge at a critical point. Away from the critical point, the dynamics can be described by a mean-field approximation. Close to the critical point, however, there is a crossover to power-law behavior because of the gross mismatch between the largest and smallest scales in the system. We have developed a theory based on surface effects, which is in good agreement with the observed behavior. The course-grained reaction-diffusion system obtained from the mean-field dynamics agrees well with the particle system.

Gandhi, Amar↗

Population Subdivision in the Gopher Frog (Rana capito) across the Fragmented Longleaf Pine-Wiregrass Savanna of the Southeastern USA

Delineating genetically distinct population segments of threatened species and quantifying population connectivity are important steps in developing effective conservation and management strategies aimed at preventing extinction. The gopher frog (Rana capito) is a xeric-adapted, pond-breeding species endemic to the Gulf and Atlantic coastal plains of the southeastern United States. This species has experienced extensive habitat loss and fragmentation in the formerly widespread longleaf pine-wiregrass savanna where it lives, resulting in individual abundance declines and population extinctions throughout its range. We used individual-based clustering methods along with Bayesian inference of historical migration based on almost 1500 multilocus microsatellite genotypes to examine genetic structure in this taxon. Clustering analyses identified panhandle and peninsular populations in Florida as distinct genetic clusters separated by the Aucilla River, consistent with the division between the Coastal Plain and peninsular mitochondrial lineages, respectively. Analysis of historical migration indicated an east–west population divergence event followed by immigration to the east. Together, our results indicate that the genetically distinct Coastal Plain and peninsular Florida lineages should be considered separately for conservation and management purposes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Macrofossil extinction patterns at Bay of Biscay Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary sections

Researchers examined several K-T boundary cores at Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) core repositories to document biostratigraphic ranges of inoceramid shell fragments and prisms. As in land-based sections, prisms in the deep sea cores disappear well before the K-T boundary. Ammonites show a very different extinction pattern than do the inoceramids. A minimum of seven ammonite species have been collected from the last meter of Cretaceous strata in the Bay of Biscay basin. In three of the sections there is no marked drop in either species numbers or abundance prior to the K-T boundary Cretaceous strata; at the Zumaya section, however, both species richness and abundance drop in the last 20 m of the Cretaceous, with only a single ammonite specimen recovered to date from the uppermost 12 m of Cretaceous strata in this section. Researchers conclude that inoceramid bivalves and ammonites showed two different times and patterns of extinction, at least in the Bay of Biscay region. The inoceramids disappeared gradually during the Early Maestrichtian, and survived only into the earliest Late Maestrichtian. Ammonites, on the other hand, maintained relatively high species richness throughout the Maestrichtian, and then disappeared suddenly, either coincident with, or immediately before the microfossil extinction event marking the very end of the Cretaceous.

Ward, Peter D.↗

The Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary biotic crisis in the Basque country

The Zumaya section has been selected as a classic locality for the study of the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary due to its richness in microfaune, macrofaune, and nannoflora. The sections present similar good conditions for the study of the K-T boundary. The sedimentary rocks of the Uppermost Maastrichtian from the Basque Country are purple or pink marls and marls-tones. Above it is found a clayed bed, 40 to 29 cm thick, grey or dark grey in its basal part, of Lowermost Danian age. Above there is alternation of micritic grey-pink limestones and thin clay beds of Dano-Montian age. The average sedimentation is 7 to 8 times higher during the Upper Maastrichtian than in the Dano-Montian. The macrofauna underwent a decrease since the Campanian and was not found in the last 11 m of the Zumaya section; it was associated with changes in paleoceanographic conditions and primary productivity of the oceans. The microfossil assemblages in the K-T transition allows the recognition of several phases of a complex crisis between two well established planktonic ecosystems. In the Mayaroensis Zone there is a stable ecosystem with 45 to 47 planktonic foraminifera species. The disappearance of A. mayaroensis starts a degradation of the ecosystem. The number of planktonic foraminiera species decreases between 20 and 45 percent. The next phase of the crisis was the result of main extinction events in the planktonic calcareous ecosystem. There are several cretaceous planktonic foraminifera species, probably reworked, whose numbers decrease upward. The next and last phase of the biotic crisis shows a diversification of the ecosystem; the number of planktonic foraminifera is 2 to 3 times higher than before and it is noted the first appearance of Tertiary nannoflora species, while Cretaceous species decrease and persisting species are still the main ones.

Lamolda, M. A.↗

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

Spatial and temporal variation in nest temperatures forecasts sex ratio skews in a crocodilian with environmental sex determination

Species displaying temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) are especially vulnerable to the effects of a rapidly changing global climate due to their profound sensitivity to thermal cues during development. Predicting the consequences of climate change for these species, including skewed offspring sex ratios, depends on understanding how climatic factors interface with features of maternal nesting behaviour to shape the developmental environment. Here, we measure thermal profiles in 86 nests at two geographically distinct sites in the northern and southern regions of the American alligator's ( Alligator mississippiensis ) geographical range, and examine the influence of both climatic factors and maternally driven nest characteristics on nest temperature variation. Changes in daily maximum air temperatures drive annual trends in nest temperatures, while variation in individual nest temperatures is also related to local habitat factors and microclimate characteristics. Without any compensatory nesting behaviours, nest temperatures are projected to increase by 1.6–3.7°C by the year 2100, and these changes are predicted to have dramatic consequences for offspring sex ratios. Exact sex ratio outcomes vary widely depending on site and emission scenario as a function of the unique temperature-by-sex reaction norm exhibited by all crocodilians. By revealing the ecological drivers of nest temperature variation in the American alligator, this study provides important insights into the potential consequences of climate change for crocodilian species, many of which are already threatened by extinction.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Mass extinctions in the deep sea

The character of mass extinctions can be assessed by studying extinction patterns of organisms, the fabric of the extinction, and assessing the environmental niche and mode of life of survivors. Deep-sea benthic foraminifera have been listed as little affected by the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) mass extinction, but very few quantitative data are available. New data on deep-sea Late Maestrichtian-Eocene benthic foraminifera from Maud Rise (Antractica) indicate that about 10 percent of the species living at depths of 2000 to 2500 m had last appearances within 1 my of the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary, versus about 25 percent of species at 1000 to 1500 m. Many survivors from the Cretaceous became extinct in a period of global deep-sea benthic foraminiferal extinction at the end of the Paleocene, a time otherwise marked by very few extinctions. Preliminary conclusions suggest that the deep oceanic environment is essentially decoupled from the shallow marine and terrestrial environment, and that even major disturbances of one of these will not greatly affect the other. This gives deep-sea benthic faunas a good opportunity to recolonize shallow environments from greater depths and vice versa after massive extinctions. The decoupling means that data on deep-sea benthic boundary was caused by the environmental effects of asteriod impact or excessive volcanism. The benthic foraminiferal data strongly suggest, however, that the environmental results were strongest at the Earth's surface, and that there was no major disturbance of the deep ocean; this pattern might result both from excessive volcanism and from an impact on land.

Thomas, E.↗

Competitive displacement among post-Paleozoic cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans

Encrusting bryozoans provide one of the few systems in the fossil record in which ecological competition can be observed directly at local scales. The macroevolutionary history of diversity of cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans is consistent with a coupled-logistic model of clade displacement predicated on species within clades interacting competitively. The model matches observed diversity history if the model is perturbed by a mass extinction with a position and magnitude analogous to the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary event, Although it is difficult to measure all parameters in the model from fossil data, critical factors are intrinsic rates of extinction, which can be measured. Cyclostomes maintained a rather low rate of extinction, and the model solutions predict that they would lose diversity only slowly as competitively superior species of cheilostomes diversified into their environment. Thus, the microecological record of preserved competitive interactions between cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans and the macroevolutionary record of global diversity are consistent in regard to competition as a significant influence on diversity histories of post-Paleozoic bryozoans.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Hydrogenation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons as a factor affecting the cosmic 6.2 micron emission band

While many of the characteristics of the cosmic unidentified infrared (UIR) emission bands observed for interstellar and circumstellar sources within the Milky Way and other galaxies, can be best attributed to vibrational modes of the variants of the molecular family known as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), there are open questions that need to be resolved. Among them is the observed strength of the 6.2 micron (1600 cm(-1)) band relative to other strong bands, and the generally low strength for measurements in the laboratory of the 1600 cm(-1) skeletal vibration band of many specific neutral PAH molecules. Also, experiments involving laser excitation of some gas phase neutral PAH species while producing long lifetime state emission in the 3.3 micron (3000 cm(-1)) spectral region, do not result in significant 6.2 micron (1600 cm(-1)) emission. A potentially important variant of the neutral PAH species, namely hydrogenated-PAH (H(N)-PAH) which exhibit intriguing spectral correlation with interstellar and circumstellar infrared emission and the 2175 A extinction feature, may be a factor affecting the strength of 6.2 micron emission. These species are hybrids of aromatic and cycloalkane structures. Laboratory infrared absorption spectroscopy augmented by density function theory (DFT) computations of selected partially hydrogenated-PAH molecules, demonstrates enhanced 6.2 micron (1600 cm(-1)) region skeletal vibration mode strength for these molecules relative to the normal PAH form. This along with other factors such as ionization or the incorporation of nitrogen or oxygen atoms could be a reason for the strength of the cosmic 6.2 micron (1600 cm(-1)) feature.

Cosmic Dust/analysis↗

Toward a Combined SAGE II-HALOE Aerosol Climatology: An Evaluation of HALOE Version 19 Stratospheric Aerosol Extinction Coefficient Observations

Herein, the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) aerosol extinction coefficient data is evaluated in the low aerosol loading period after 1996 as the first necessary step in a process that will eventually allow the production of a combined HALOE/SAGE II (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) aerosol climatology of derived aerosol products including surface area density. Based on these analyses, it is demonstrated that HALOE's 3.46 microns is of good quality above 19 km and suitable for scientific applications above that altitude. However, it is increasingly suspect at lower altitudes and should not be used below 17 km under any circumstances after 1996. The 3.40 microns is biased by about 10% throughout the lower stratosphere due to the failure to clear NO2 but otherwise appears to be a high quality product down to 15 km. The 2.45 and 5.26 micron aerosol extinction coefficient measurements are clearly biased and should not be used for scientific applications after the most intense parts of the Pinatubo period. Many of the issues in the aerosol data appear to be related to either the failure to clear some interfering gas species or doing so poorly. For instance, it is clear that the 3.40micronaerosol extinction coefficient measurements can be improved through the inclusion of an NO2 correction and could, in fact, end up as the highest quality overall HALOE aerosol extinction coefficient measurement. It also appears that the 2.45 and 5.26 micron channels may be improved by updating the Upper Atmosphere Pilot Database which is used as a resource for the removal of gas species otherwise not available from direct HALOE measurements. Finally, a simple model to demonstrate the promise of mixed visible/infrared aerosol extinction coefficient ensembles for the retrieval of bulk aerosol properties demonstrates that a combined HALOE/SAGE II aerosol climatology is feasible and may represent a substantial improvement over independently derived data sets.

Thomason, L. W.↗

Towards Co-evolution of Membranes and Metabolism

Conceptually, the most robust way to explain how primitive cell-like structures acquired and increased their capabilities is on the basis of Darwinian evolution. A population of protocells containing material that produced more environmentally fit progeny would increase in time at the expense of other protocells. In this scenario, protocellular boundaries were inextricably connected to the metabolism they encapsulated: to be inheritable, early metabolism must have led to an increased rate of growth and division of vesicles and, similarly, transport through vesicle boundaries must have supported the evolution of metabolism. Everything that could not be delivered from the environment had to be produced and retained inside protocells. Despite their importance to the understanding of the origin of life, only a few cases of coupling between metabolism and membrane-related processes have been identified so far. For example, reactions inside fatty-acid vesicles have been linked to their competitive growth and division, and mechanisms by which membrane permeability might have coupled to information polymers have been proposed and explained. Most recently, it has been shown that a dipeptide inside fatty-acid vesicles catalyzes the formation of another dipeptide that binds to vesicle walls and, by doing so, promotes their growth at the expense of other vesicles, thus demonstrating evolutionary advantage of small, membrane-bound peptides. It has been shown that the appearance of phospholipids imparted selective advantage to protocells bound by phospholipid-containing membranes, eventually driving fatty-acid vesicles to extinction. Phospholipid membranes, however, are nearly impermeable to charged species. Yet, the ability to transport ions across membranes was vital for regulating cellular volume, pH homeostasis, generating energy and sensing the environment. To account for this, evolutionary scenarios for the emergence of simple ion channels, protein structures surrounding water-filled pores in the membrane that facilitate ion transport, have been developed. We will review recent progress in experimental and theoretical studies on coupling properties of membranes to metabolism, with the focus on how they impose constraints on scenarios for the origin of life, and discuss how these studies form the basis for future work on this topic.

metabolism↗

Recommendations on Future Science and Engineering Studies for Ocean Color

The Ocean Health Index measured Ecological Integrity as the relative condition of assessed species in a given location. This was calculated as the weighted sum of the International Union for Conservation of Natures (IUCN) assessments of species. Weights used were based on the level of extinction risk following Butchart et al.2007: EX (extinct) 0.0, CR (critically endangered) 0.2, EN (endangered) 0.5, VU (vulnerable) 0.7, NT (not threatened) 0.9, and LC (least concern) 0.99. For primarily coastal goals, the spatial average of these per pixel scores was based on a 3nmi buffer; for goals derived from all ocean waters, the spatial average was computed for the entire EEZ.

Geo-Cape↗

High-Temperature Reaction Kinetics of the e aq – and HO 2 • Radicals with Iron(II) Ions in Aqueous Solutions

Pulsed electron radiolysis was used to determine the chemical reaction kinetics and Arrhenius parameters for iron(II) reactions in aqueous solutions under irradiation. The second-order Fe 2+ reactions with the hydrated electron (e aq – ) and the perhydroxyl radical (HO 2 • ), arising from water radiolysis, were measured to high temperatures using custom-built flow-through cells with a multichannel optical detection system. The reaction with the HO 2 • radical was found to proceed via the formation of a metal-ion adduct species, Fe 2+ –HO 2 • . Additionally, the adduct’s molar extinction coefficient and its first-order decay rate coefficients are reported.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A remote sensing research agenda for mapping and monitoring biodiversity

A remote sensing research agenda designed to expand the knowledge of the spatial distribution of species richness and its ecological determinants and to predict its response to global change is proposed. Emphasis is placed on current methods of mapping species richness of both plants and animals, hypotheses concerning the biophysical factors believed to determine patterns of species richness, and anthropogenic processes causing the accelerating rate of extinctions. It is concluded that biodiversity should be incorporated more prominently into the global change and earth system science paradigms.

Stoms, D. M.↗

Skeletal reaction models for methane combustion

A local-sensitivity-analysis technique is employed to generate new skeletal reaction models for methane combustion from the foundational fuel chemistry model (FFCM-1). Here, the sensitivities of the thermo-chemical variables with respect to the reaction rates are computed via the forced-optimally time dependent (f-OTD) methodology. In this methodology, the large sensitivity matrix containing all local sensitivities is modeled as a product of two low-rank time-dependent matrices. The evolution equations of these matrices are derived from the governing equations of the system. The modeled sensitivities are computed for the auto-ignition of methane at atmospheric and high pressures with different sets of initial temperatures, and equivalence ratios. These sensitivities are then analyzed to rank the most important (sensitive) species. A series of skeletal models with different number of species and levels of accuracy in reproducing the FFCM-1 results are suggested. The performances of the generated models are compared against FFCM-1 in predicting the ignition delay, the laminar flame speed, and the flame extinction. The results of this comparative assessment suggest the skeletal models with 24 and more species generate the FFCM-1 results with an excellent accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗