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DOE OSTI2021

Tribal Revegetation Project Final Project Report: 92-Acre Area, Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Complex, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada

Nuwu (Southern Paiute), Newe (Western Shoshone), and Nuumu (Owens Valley Paiute) are linguistically related, Numic-speaking peoples who are part of the broader Uto-Aztecan language group. Numic peoples view the land as a holistic, living, sentient being with feelings and purpose. The land is personified with human characteristics and it needs to be experienced to be understood through “learning by doing.” Numic peoples do not support ground disturbing activities within their ancestral lands, including activities tied to the storage of low-level radioactive waste or classified materials on the NNSS, which they view as culturally inappropriate. These deep-rooted ancestral connections are the impetus for reinforcing Numic responsibility for healing disturbed areas by integrating respect and patience with consistent Tribal interaction. Tribal Ecological Knowledge (TEK) is the science of describing Tribal approaches for understanding natural resources. Numic TEK is embedded in traditional teachings learned incrementally over time though experience and it evolves through lessons learned and responses to environmental changes over millennia. Therefore, TEK can broaden and enhance Western scientific knowledge associated with revegetation, especially in highly disturbed areas. The project blended TEK with Western scientific ecological methods to create a vegetative cover within test plots on the 92-Acre Area located at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) located in Area 5 on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The vegetated test plots were systematically created for the Department of Energy (DOE) in tandem with the existing Federal Facilities Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) with the Nevada Department of Environmental Protection (NDEP). Three previous contractor-lead attempts at revegetation, one targeting full cover revegetation and two targeting test plot revegetation, did not achieve the anticipated results at this location. When presented to the 16 American Indian Tribal nations and affiliated groups with cultural and historical ties to the NNSS, the group appointed a Tribal Revegetation Committee (TRC) that included six expert Tribal knowledge holders to collaborate with an ethnoecologist/cultural anthropologist and two biologists. Project design, planning, seed and outplant selection, spiritual land preparation, and methodology were guided by the TRC and an ethnoecologist/cultural anthropologist from Portland State University (PSU) and biologists from Desert Research Institute (DRI). Using TEK, the TRC recommended a specific seed mixture that contained nine native plant species and three species of outplants. The revegetation effort included preparing and planting thirty 10 m × 10 m (32.8 ft × 32.8 ft) seeded plots, twelve of which also included outplants; and eight 10 m × 100 m (32.8 ft × 328 ft) plots that only received outplants, all atop a waste cell cover. The TRC and the project team creatively adapted TEK with Western scientific methods so that the planned revegetation efforts could occur within the safety and security parameters of the RWMC. Test plots were subjected to one of five soil treatments with varying combinations of straw or mulch applications, soil amendment, and/or outplant planting and one of two watering treatments (watered or unwatered). Planting was divided into two events: one in the fall season and another during the subsequent spring season based on TEK and a corresponding recommendation from the TRC. Monitoring and spiritual management was conducted by the TRC to evaluate plant progress on a monthly basis (in conjunction with the biologist and anthropologist) during each respective growing season for a period of three years after planting. This approach allowed Tribal members the opportunity to conduct traditional blessings and other culturally appropriate activities to restore balance to the land in accordance with Tribal protocols. Following TEK-guided methods, successful plant establishment from seed stock and outplants was observed in many plots. Overall, plots planted in the spring, as recommended by the TRC, showed higher rates of outplant survival and native seedling emergence than those planted in the fall. This finding is significant because it is contrary to the original guidance and previous approaches provided for planting in this region. The TRC believes the frequent co-occurrence of native seedlings near surviving outplants indicates an important symbiotic relationship understood by Tribal communities and overlooked by others. Watered outplants displayed much higher survivability than unwatered plants, even after watering was reduced after the plants were established. Soil amendments and mulch created higher densities of native plants from seed. Many native seedlings showed significant delays in germination, which is considered a normal adaptation to desert climates. Some native plants did not germinate until the third growing year, whereas others germinated during the first growing year, which demonstrates the complexity of the desert environment. Evidence of native insects, reptiles, mammals, and birds, as well as native plants that were not part of the planted species, were noted and considered culturally significant. Despite the presence of non-native plants, native outplants continued to thrive and the incidence of native plant germination from seed increased over time. These successful revegetation results where previous efforts were unsuccessful reinforce the importance of integrating regionally appropriate, TEK-guided methodology with Western science to achieve positive results and the necessity of integrating Tribal involvement in all stages of the revegetation effort. Expanded approaches coupled with Tribal knowledge and tools from Western science addressed a complex problem tied to revegetating atop a low-level radioactive waste cell. The level of Tribal participation serves as a progressive model for building collaborative relationships and addressing ecological challenges on the NNSS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of 304L stainless steel deformation and failure under cyclic loading

The motivation for this work came from the simulation of components subjected to impact. In these problems, repeated loading can be generated by vibrational motion between internal parts of the component or by the occurrence of multiple impacts. Graphs of tensile equivalent plastic strain $(\overline{\varepsilon}_T^\rho)$ versus time from such cases had the character shown in Fig. 1. The equivalent plastic strain grew by alternating periods of accumulation and hold. The periods of hold indicate times when $d\overline{\varepsilon}_T^\rho$ did not accumulate. This can be due to the material unloading into the elastic range, or actually plastically reverse loading with hydrostatic stress σ h < 0 as was demonstrated for an impact simulation. Similar observations were made from the simulation of a 2-degree-of-freedom mass-elastic-plastic-spring system subjected to impact.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation and modification of ELM seasonal deciduous phenology against observations in a southern boreal peatland forest

Phenological transitions determine the timing of changes in land surface properties and the seasonality of exchanges of biosphere-atmosphere energy, water, and carbon. Accurate mechanistic modeling of phenological processes is therefore critical to understand and correctly predict terrestrial ecosystem feedbacks with changing atmospheric and climate conditions. However, the phenological components in the land model of the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM of E3SM) were previously unable to accurately capture the observed phenological responses to environmental conditions in a well-studied boreal peatland forest. In this research, we introduced new seasonal-deciduous phenology schemes into version 1.0 of ELM and evaluated their performance against the PhenoCam observations at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment in northern Minnesota from 2015 to 2018. We found that phenology simulated by the revised ELM (i.e., earlier spring onsets and stronger warming responses of spring onsets and autumn senescence) was closer to observations than simulations from the original algorithms for both the deciduous conifer (Larix laricina) and mixed shrub layers. Moreover, the revised ELM generally produced higher carbon and water fluxes (e.g., photosynthesis and evapotranspiration) during the growing season and stronger flux responses to warming than the default ELM. A parameter sensitivity analysis further indicated the significant contribution of phenology parameters to uncertainty in key carbon and water cycle variables, underscoring the importance of precise phenology parameterization. Furthermore, this phenological modeling effort demonstrates the potential to enhance the E3SM representation of land-climate interactions at broader spatiotemporal scales, especially under anticipated elevated CO 2 and warming conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

J/ψ photoproduction at the threshold with GlueX

High-statistics total cross sections for the vector meson photoproduction at the threshold: γp → ωp (from A2 at MAMI, ELPH, and CBELSA), γp → ϕp (from CLAS6 at JLab and LEPS at SPring-8), and γp → J/ψp (from GlueX at JLab) allow one to extract the absolute value of vector meson nucleon scattering length using Vector Meson Dominance (VMD) model. The “young” vector meson hypothesis may explain the fact that the obtained scattering length values for the nucleon. ϕ-meson compared to the typical hadron size of approximately ∼ 1 fm indicates that the proton is more transparent for the ϕ-meson compared to the ω-meson and is much less transparent than the J/ψ-meson. The extended analysis of Υ-meson photoproduction using quasi-data from the QCD approach is in perfect agreement with the light-meson findings using experimental data. Finally, the ability of J-PARC to measure $π^{–}p → ϕn$ and $π^{–}p → J/ψn$ at the threshold, which are free from the VMD model, is presented. It enables one to understand the dynamics of $s\bar{s}$ and $c\bar{c}$ production at threshold and to search for the effects of LHCb’s heavy quark exotic states.

Vector meson nucleon scattering length↗

DOE OSTI2023

Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires

Here we report in the spring 2021, Nepal underwent a record wildfire season in which active fires were detected at a rate 10 times greater than the 2002–2020 average. Prior to these major wildfire events, the country experienced a prolonged precipitation deficit and extreme drought during the post-monsoon period (starting in October 2020). An analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that both climate variability and climate change-induced severe drought conditions were at play. Further analysis of climate model outputs suggests the likely reoccurrence of drought conditions, thus favoring active wildfire seasons in Nepal throughout the twenty-first century. While the inter-model uncertainty is large and direct modeling of wildfire spread and suppression has not been completed, the demonstrated relationship between a drought index (the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index) and subsequent fire activity may offer actionable opportunities for forest managers to employ the monitoring and projection of climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales to inform their management strategies for Nepal’s wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Big-Data-Driven Geo-Spatiotemporal Correlation Analysis between Precursor Pollen and Influenza and its Implication to Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

Although studies of many respiratory viruses and pollens are often framed by both seasonal and health related perspectives, pollen has yet to be extensively examined as an important covariate to seasonal respiratory viruses (SRVs) in any context, including a causal one. This study contributes to those goals through an investigation of SRVs and pollen counts at selected regions across the Western Hemisphere. Two complementary decadal-scaled geospatial profiles were developed. One laterally spanned the US and was anchored by detailed pollen information for Albuquerque, New Mexico. The other straddled the equator to include Fortaleza, Brazil. We found that the geospatial and climatological patterns of pollen advancement and decline across the US every year presented a statistically significant correlation to the subsequent emergence and decline of SRVs. Other significant covariates included winds, temperatures, and atmospheric moisture. Our study indicates that areas of the US with lower geostrophic wind baselines are typically areas of persistently higher and earlier influenza like illness (ILI) cases. In addition to that continental- scaled contrast, many sites indicated seasonal highs of geostrophic winds and ILI which were closely aligned. These observations suggest extensive scale-dependent connectivity of viruses to geostrophic circulation. Pollen emergence and its own scale-dependent circulation may contribute to the geospatial and seasonal patterns of ILI. We explore some uncertainties associated with this investigation, and consider the possibility that in a temperate climate, following a Spring pollen emergence, a resulting increase in pollen triggered human Immunoglobulin E (IgE) antibodies may suppress ILIs for several months.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves

Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification of SSTAs as precursors. Here, we extend beyond previous studies by combining 100 historical simulations (1850–2005) of the MPI Grand-Ensemble with an explainable neural-network method. We find that the spring tripolar North Atlantic pattern with positive SSTAs in the Subtropical Gyre is a precursor of EuSHWs. In addition, positive SSTAs west of the Iberian Peninsula, and in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea relate to distinct early summer soil moisture anomaly patterns and are precursors of western and southeastern EuSHWs, respectively. While the phase of the tripolar North Atlantic pattern indicates whether a EuSHW might emerge, regional SSTAs indicate the spatial characteristics of EuSHWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the US in Conventional and Multiscale Modeling Framework Configurations of E3SMv1

Organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute a significant amount of precipitation in the Central and Eastern US during spring and summer, which impacts the availability of freshwater and flooding events. However, current global Earth system models cannot capture MCSs well and misrepresent the statistics of precipitation in the region. In this study, we investigate the representation of MCSs in three configurations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) by tracking individual storms based on outgoing longwave radiation using a new application of TempestExtremes. Our results indicate that conventional parameterizations of convection, implemented in both low (LR; ~150 km) and high (HR; ~25 km) resolution configurations, fail to capture almost all MCS-like events, in-part because they underestimate high-level cloud ice associated with deep convection. On the other hand, the multiscale modeling framework (MMF; cloud-resolving models embedded in each grid-column of ~150 km resolution E3SMv1) configuration represents MCSs and their annual cycle better. Nevertheless, relative to observations, the E3SMv1-MMF spatial distribution of MCSs and associated precipitation is shifted eastward, and the diurnal timing is lagged. A comparison between the large-scale environment in E3SMv1-MMF and ERA5 reanalysis suggests that the biases during the summer in E3SMv1-MMF are associated with biases in low-level humidity and meridional moisture transport within the low-level jet. The fact that conventional parameterizations of convection, even with high-resolution, cannot capture MCSs over the US suggests that methods with explicit representation of kilometer-scale convective organization, such as the MMF, may be necessary for improving the simulation of these convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Investigation on the Pollen-Induced Soiling Losses in Utility-Scale PV Plants

Here in this study, the impact of pollen as a PV soiling agent is investigated. The performance data of five utility-scale PV plants in North Carolina, USA, was collected and analyzed using two soiling extraction methods. Satellite and environmental data, including pollen counts, cropland, and vegetation, was also collected and analyzed to identify impacts to soiling losses. During the spring peak pollen season, performance losses of >15% were observed at all five sites. Partial performance recoveries following the pollen season were slow, with lack of correlation with rainfall. This means that the statistical soiling estimation methods that assume abrupt performance recovery from rain are not appropriate for pollen-impacted solar sites. When manual cleanings were performed on site the performance recovery ranged from 5% to 11% indicating persistent soiling impacts are present in this region. The results of this work provide new insights into the phenomenon of pollen deposition on PV systems, demonstrating that 1) soiling can also affect systems located in rainy locations and 2) that its effects cannot be determined using the current estimation methodologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multimodel simulation of vertical gas transfer in a temperate lake

In recent decades, several lake models of varying complexity have been developed and incorporated in numerical weather prediction systems and climate models. To foster enhanced forecasting ability and verification, improvement of these lake models remains essential. This especially applies to the limited simulation capabilities of biogeochemical processes in lakes and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Here we present multi-model simulations of physical variables and dissolved gas dynamics in a temperate lake (Harp Lake, Canada). The five models (ALBM, FLake, LAKE, LAKEoneD, MTCR-1) considered within this most recent round of the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP) all captured the seasonal temperature variability well. In contrast, none of the models is able to reproduce the exact dates of ice-cover and ice-off, leading to considerable errors in the simulation of eddy diffusivity around those dates.We then conducted an additional modeling experiment with a diffusing passive tracer to isolate the effect of the eddy diffusivity on gas concentration. Remarkably, sophisticated k -" models do not demonstrate a significant difference in the vertical diffusion of a passive tracer compared to models with much simpler turbulence closures. All models simulate less intensive spring overturn compared to autumn. Reduced mixing in the models consequently leads to the accumulation of the passive tracer distribution in the water column. The lake models with a comprehensive biogeochemical module, such as ALBM and LAKE, predict dissolved oxygen dynamics adequate to the observed data. However, for the surface carbon dioxide concentration the correlation between modeled (ALBM, LAKE) and observed data is weak (~0.3). Overall our results indicate the need to improve the representation of physical and biogeochemical processes in lake models, thereby contributing to enhanced weather prediction and climate projection capabilities.

Guseva, Sofya↗

DOE OSTI2026

Zwitterion Moieties in Polypeptides Synergistically Enhance the Release of Cellulose and Amorphous Polysaccharides from Plant Cell Walls

This study demonstrated that covalently localized zwitterionic moieties in zwitterionic polypeptides (ZIPs) effectively disrupt hydrogen bonds in cellulosic substrates, including filter paper and plant cell wall materials, without significant cytotoxicity. ZIPs with varying densities of zwitterionic side chains were synthesized via the postpolymerization modification of histidinecontaining oligopeptides. The newly developed ZIPs predominantly comprised repeating units with zwitterionically converted side chains. Such ZIPs can cleave multiple hydrogen bonds by anchoring the zwitterionic structure at specific sites, thereby partially dissociating the polysaccharide chains in the cell wall. They are especially effective in dissolving amorphous cellulose, even at low concentrations in aqueous solutions. Importantly, this effect was achieved with minimal cellular toxicity, harnessing the advantages of ionic liquid-like properties while mitigating their high-toxicity limitations. This biofriendly approach to cell wall denaturation highlights a novel method for controlling hydrogen bond networks in polysaccharides and cell walls. These findings indicate a new approach for reducing biomass recalcitrance and developing next-generation biobased materials and fuels derived from plant cell walls.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Formation of a Large Cold Groundwater Mantle Helium Anomaly and High Temperature Geothermal Resources in Response to Bimodal Magmatism Near Roosevelt Hot Springs and Utah FORGE, Milford Valley, Southwest Utah

Abstract A large mantle helium anomaly and separate domains of high heat flow are the predominant manifestations of bimodal magmatic activity in the Milford valley. The mantle helium anomaly (1.9–2.6 R/Ra) covers 270 km 2 and is subdivided into two separated domains: a cold shallow groundwater regime and high temperature hydrothermal activity. The zone of anomalous heat flow covers >100 km 2 and is also subdivided into two adjacent domains, comprising hydrothermal activity at Roosevelt Hot Springs (RHS) (3–7 W/m 2 ) and conductive heat flow (100–180 mW/m 2 ). While the transfer of heat and mantle helium at RHS are coupled, heat and helium transfer are decoupled in the adjacent cold groundwater regime to the west. Both the mantle helium and geothermal anomalies are attributed to recent mafic‐felsic magmatic intrusions of >400 km 3 , however, the absence of volcanic eruptions <500,000 years indicates magmas stall before rising to shallow crustal level <10 km depth. Deep level magmatism produces a felsic composition melt, which is inferred to be responsible for the widespread and near uniform range of diluted mantle helium values. A thick and impermeable mass of crystalline granitic basement rock at the mid‐crustal level divides the ascent of mantle helium into separate flow paths. It may also impede the rise of buoyant magma trapping thermal energy that facilitates partial melting, slow cooling, and development of a thick thermal aureole. Partitioning of convective and conductive thermal regimes and independent flow paths supplying deeply derived helium characterize the development of a large long‐lived magma‐related geothermal system.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

UNH TDP - Concurrent Measurements of Inflow, Power Performance, and Loads for a Grid-Synchronized Vertical Axis Cross-Flow Turbine Operating in a Tidal Estuary

This data was collected between October 12 and December 15 of 2021 at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and Atlantic Marine Energy Center (AMEC) turbine deployment platform (TDP). This data set includes over 29 days of grid connected turbine operation during this 65 day time frame. The priority for this measurement campaign was to collect data while the turbine was electrically connected to the grid by means of a rectifier and inverter. The Fall_2021_UNH_Measurement_Timeline.png highlights when each instrument was functioning and the Fall_2021_UNH_Test_Log.jpg indicates the four main regions for analysis available from this measurement campaign. The TDP is a floating structure moored on the Portsmouth facing side of Memorial Bridge pier #2, which spans the Piscataqua River between Portsmouth, NH and Kittery, ME. The Piscataqua River connects the Great Bay Estuary to the Gulf of Maine and the river currents are dominated by tidal forcing with water velocities exceeding 2.5 m/s during spring ebb tides at this site which were previously characterized by Kaelin Chancey (Assessment Of The Localized Flow And Tidal Energy Conversion System At An Estuarine Bridge - UNH MS Thesis 2019). The turbine under test was a modified New Energy Corporation (Calgary, CA) model EVG-025 4-blade H-Darrius type vertical axis cross flow turbine that rotates in the clockwise direction with a rotor diameter of 3.2m and blade length of 1.7m. The hydro-foil profile was a NACA 0021 with a 10 inch chord length and a blade preset pitch angle of +4deg with a positive angle corresponding with the toe in direction. The standard EVG-025 has a rotor diameter of 3.4m and its rated power output is 25kW at 3 m/s. The rotor diameter was reduced to accommodate the size of the existing TDP moon-pool. This project was pursued to quantify device performance for cross flow turbines operating in a marine environment. Accurate physical models, to characterize cross flow turbine performance, require real operational data sets due to the complexity of blade fluid interactions. This data can help support model development which will help predict turbine performance when analyzing perspective project locations in the future. Instrumentation was deployed to measure; water speed/direction, electrical power output, turbine shaft speed, turbine thrust force, and platform motion. Concurrent measurements of these parameters allow for correlations (cause and affect) to be inferred, allowing for characterization of device performance over a range of operating conditions. Water currents were measured using Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP's) and Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters (ADV's) directly upstream and downstream of the turbine for inflow, wake and turbulence measurements. Electrical power output was measured using the Voltsys rectifier and the Shark power meter. Shaft speed was calculated based on the Voltsys measurements of the permanent magnet three phase generator AC generation frequency, coupled directly to the cross flow turbine under test (i.e., no gear box). Platform motions were captured using a Yost IMU (inertial measurement unit). Turbine thrust loading was measured using a reaction arm about the turbine deployment platform spanning beam, where two bi-directional load cells were connected to the system via a pinned connection. This submission includes zipped folders for each instrument containing quality controlled (QC'd) data in daily .csv files for the relevant duration specific to each instrument, along with separate .csv file that contains the units for each variable. Some instrument daily files are quite large and can pose a challenge for a visual spreadsheet editor to open. A processing software like MATLAB or Python is recommended. Note the degree of QC varied between each instrument due to time constraints. Particular time and attention was given to perform quality control tests on the acoustic based instruments that are particularly suscep...

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Disinfection byproducts formed during drinking water treatment reveal an export control point for dissolved organic matter in a subalpine headwater stream

Changes in climate, season, and vegetation can alter organic export from watersheds. While an accepted tradeoff to protect public health, disinfection processes during drinking water treatment can adversely react with organic compounds to form disinfection byproducts (DBPs). By extension, DBP monitoring can yield insights into hydrobiogeochemical dynamics within watersheds and their implications for water resource management. In this study, we analyzed temporal trends from a water treatment facility that sources water from Coal Creek in Crested Butte, Colorado. These trends revealed a long-term increase in haloacetic acid and trihalomethane formation over the period of 2005-2020. Additionally, disproportionate export of dissolved organic carbon and formation of DBPs that exceeded regulatory guidelines were consistently recorded in association with late spring freshet. Synoptic sampling of the creek in 2020 and 2021 identified a biogeochemical hotspot for organic carbon export in the upper domain of the watershed that contained a prominent fulvic acid-like fluorescent signature. DBP formation potential analyses from this domain yielded similar ratios of dominant DBP species to those formed at the drinking water facility. Spectrometric qualitative analyses of pre and post-reacted waters with hypochlorite indicated ligninlike and condensed hydrocarbon-like molecules were the major reactive chemical classes during chlorine-based disinfection. This study demonstrates how drinking water quality archives can be coupled with synoptic sampling to identify and understand export control points for dissolved organic matter. Resultant understanding can be applied in water treatment and watershed management plans to improve drinking water quality sourced from analogous watersheds.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Regime shifts in Arctic terrestrial hydrology manifested from impacts of climate warming

Abstract. Anthropogenic warming in the Arctic is causing hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, with implications for flows of water, carbon, and energy from terrestrial biomes to coastal zones. To better understand the likely impacts of these changes, we used a hydrology model driven by meteorological data from atmospheric reanalysis and two global climate models for the period 1980–2100. The hydrology model accounts for soil freeze–thaw processes and was applied across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. The simulations point to greater changes over northernmost areas of the basin underlain by permafrost and to the western Arctic. An acceleration of simulated river discharge over the recent past is commensurate with trends drawn from observations and reported in other studies. Between early-century (2000–2019) and late-century (2080–2099) periods, the model simulations indicate an increase in annual total runoff of 17 %–25 %, while the proportion of runoff emanating from subsurface pathways is projected to increase by 13 %–30 %, with the largest changes noted in summer and autumn and across areas with permafrost. Most notably, runoff contributions to river discharge shift to northern parts of the Arctic Basin that contain greater amounts of soil carbon. Each season sees an increase in subsurface runoff; spring is the only season where surface runoff dominates the rise in total runoff, and summer experiences a decline in total runoff despite an increase in the subsurface component. The greater changes that are seen in areas where permafrost exists support the notion that increased soil thaw is shifting hydrological contributions to more subsurface flow. The manifestations of warming, hydrological cycle intensification, and permafrost thaw will impact Arctic terrestrial and coastal environments through altered river flows and the materials they transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs: Preprint

Subsurface data analysis, reservoir modeling, and machine learning (ML) techniques have been applied to the Brady Hot Springs (BHS) geothermal field in Nevada, USA to further characterize the subsurface and assist with optimizing reservoir management. Hundreds of reservoir simulations have been conducted in TETRAD-G and CMG STARS to explore different injection and production fluid flow rates and allocations and to develop a training data set for ML. This process included simulating the historical injection and production since 1979 and prediction of future performance through 2040. ML networks were created and trained using TensorFlow based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), and convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures. These networks took as input selected flow rates, injection temperatures, and historical field operation data and produced estimates of future production temperatures. This approach was first successfully tested on a simplified single fracture doublet system, followed by the application to the BHS reservoir. Using an initial BHS dataset with 37 simulated scenarios, the trained and validated network predicted the production temperature for 6 production wells with the mean absolute percentage error of less than 8%. In a complementary analysis effort, the principal component analysis applied to 13 BHS geological parameters revealed that vertical fracture permeability shows the strongest correlation with fault density and fault intersection density. A new BHS reservoir model was developed considering the fault intersection density as proxy for permeability. This new reservoir model helps to explore under-exploited zones in the reservoir. A data gathering plan to obtain additional subsurface data was developed; it includes temperature surveying for three idle injection wells, at which the reservoir simulations indicate high bottom-hole temperatures. The collected data assist with calibrating the reservoir model and may lead to converting these wells to producers to access under-exploited zones in the reservoir. Data gathering activities are planned for the first quarter of 2021.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Madden-Julian oscillation influences United States springtime tornado and hail frequency

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics and has a documented influence on extratropical extreme weather through modulation of synoptic atmospheric conditions. MJO phase has been correlated with anomalous tornado and severe hail frequency in the United States (US). However, the robustness of this relationship is unsettled, and the variability of physical pathways to modulation is poorly understood, despite the socioeconomic impacts that tornadoes and hail evoke. We approached this problem using pentad MJO indices and practically perfect severe weather hindcasts. MJO lifecycles were cataloged and clustered to document variability and potential pathways to enhanced subseasonal tornado and hail predictability. Statistically significant increases in US tornado and hail probabilities were documented 3–4 weeks following the period of the strongest upper-level divergence for the 53 active MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent, contrasting with the 47 MJO events that experienced the barrier effect, during boreal spring 1979–2019. The 53 MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent revealed three prevailing MJO evolutions—each containing unique pathways and modulation of US tornado and hail frequency—advancing our knowledge and capability to anticipate these hazards at extended lead times.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗