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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Davis–Chandrasekhar–Fermi method revisited

ABSTRACT Despite the rich observational results on interstellar magnetic fields in star-forming regions, it is still unclear how dynamically significant the magnetic fields are at varying physical scales, because direct measurement of the field strength is observationally difficult. The Davis–Chandrasekhar–Fermi (DCF) method has been the most commonly used method to estimate the magnetic field strength from polarization data. It is based on the assumption that gas turbulent motion is the driving source of field distortion via linear Alfvén waves. In this work, using MHD simulations of star-forming clouds, we test the validity of the assumption underlying the DCF method by examining its accuracy in the real 3D space. Our results suggest that the DCF relation between turbulent kinetic energy and magnetic energy fluctuation should be treated as a statistical result instead of a local property. We then develop and investigate several modifications to the original DCF method using synthetic observations, and propose new recipes to improve the accuracy of DCF-derived magnetic field strength. We further note that the biggest uncertainty in the DCF analysis may come from the linewidth measurement instead of the polarization observation, especially since the line-of-sight gas velocity can be used to estimate the gas volume density, another critical parameter in the DCF method.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An acoustic investigation of the near-surface turbulence on Mars

The Perseverance rover is carrying out an original acoustic experiment on Mars: the SuperCam microphone records the spherical acoustic waves generated by laser sparks at distances from 2 m to more than 8 m. These N-shaped acoustic waves scatter from the multiple local heterogeneities of the turbulent atmosphere. Therefore, large and random fluctuations of sound travel time and intensity develop as the waves cross the medium. The variances of the travel times and the scintillation index (normalized variance of the sound intensity) are studied within the mathematical formalism of the propagation of spherical acoustic waves through thermal turbulence to infer statistical properties of the Mars atmospheric temperature fluctuation field. The comparison with the theory is made by simplifying assumptions that do not include wind fluctuations and diffraction effects. Two Earth years (about one Martian year) of observations acquired during the maximum convective period (10:00–14:00 Mars local time) show a good agreement between the dataset and the formalism: the travel time variance diverges from the linear Chernov solution exactly where the density of occurrence of the first caustic reaches its maximum. Moreover, on average, waves travel faster than the mean speed of sound due to a fast path effect, which is also observed on Earth. To account for the distribution of turbulent eddies, several power spectra are tested and the best match to observation is obtained with a generalized von Karman spectrum with a shallower slope than the Kolmogorov cascade, φ(k)∝(1 + k 2 L 2 ) -4/3 . It is associated with an outer scale of turbulence, L, of 11 cm at 2 m above the surface and a standard deviation of 6 K over 9 s for the temperature. These near-surface atmospheric properties are consistent with a weak to moderate wave scattering regime around noon with little saturation. Overall, this study presents an innovative and promising methodology to probe the near-surface atmospheric turbulence on Mars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Molecular fluctuations inhibit intermittency in compressible turbulence

In the standard picture of fully developed turbulence, highly intermittent hydrodynamic fields are nonlinearly coupled across scales, where local energy cascades from large scales into dissipative vortices and large density gradients. Microscopically, however, constituent fluid molecules are in constant thermal (Brownian) motion, but the role of molecular fluctuations in large-scale turbulence is largely unknown, and with rare exceptions, it has historically been considered irrelevant at scales larger than the molecular mean free path. Recent theoretical and computational investigations have shown that molecular fluctuations can impact energy cascade at Kolmogorov length scales. Here, we show that molecular fluctuations not only modify energy spectrum at wavelengths larger than the Kolmogorov length in compressible turbulence, but also significantly inhibit spatio-temporal intermittency across the entire dissipation range. Using large-scale direct numerical simulations of computational fluctuating hydrodynamics, we demonstrate that the extreme intermittency characteristic of turbulence models is replaced by nearly Gaussian statistics in the dissipation range. These results demonstrate that the compressible Navier–Stokes equations should be augmented with molecular fluctuations to accurately predict turbulence statistics across the dissipation range. Our findings have significant consequences for turbulence modelling in applications such as astrophysics, reactive flows and hypersonic aerodynamics, where dissipation-range turbulence is approximated by closure models.

compressible turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planck 2018 results

We report on the implications for cosmic inflation of the 2018 release of the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy measurements. The results are fully consistent with those reported using the data from the two previous Planck cosmological releases, but have smaller uncertainties thanks to improvements in the characterization of polarization at low and high multipoles. Planck temperature, polarization, and lensing data determine the spectral index of scalar perturbations to be n s = 0.9649 ± 0.0042 at 68% CL. We find no evidence for a scale dependence of n s , either as a running or as a running of the running. The Universe is found to be consistent with spatial flatness with a precision of 0.4% at 95% CL by combining Planck with a compilation of baryon acoustic oscillation data. The Planck 95% CL upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r0.002 < 0.10, is further tightened by combining with the BICEP2/Keck Array BK15 data to obtain r 0.002 < 0.056. In the framework of standard single-field inflationary models with Einstein gravity, these results imply that: (a) the predictions of slow-roll models with a concave potential, V"(Φ) < 0, are increasingly favoured by the data; and (b) based on two different methods for reconstructing the inflaton potential, we find no evidence for dynamics beyond slow roll. Three different methods for the non-parametric reconstruction of the primordial power spectrum consistently confirm a pure power law in the range of comoving scales 0.005 Mpc -1 ≲ k ≲ 0.2 Mpc -1 . A complementary analysis also finds no evidence for theoretically motivated parameterized features in the Planck power spectra. For the case of oscillatory features that are logarithmic or linear in k, this result is further strengthened by a new combined analysis including the Planck bispectrum data. The new Planck polarization data provide a stringent test of the adiabaticity of the initial conditions for the cosmological fluctuations. In correlated, mixed adiabatic and isocurvature models, the non-adiabatic contribution to the observed CMB temperature variance is constrained to 1.3%, 1.7%, and 1.7% at 95% CL for cold dark matter, neutrino density, and neutrino velocity, respectively. Planck power spectra plus lensing set constraints on the amplitude of compensated cold dark matter-baryon isocurvature perturbations that are consistent with current complementary measurements. The polarization data also provide improved constraints on inflationary models that predict a small statistically anisotropic quadupolar modulation of the primordial fluctuations. However, the polarization data do not support physical models for a scale-dependent dipolar modulation. All these findings support the key predictions of the standard single-field inflationary models, which will be further tested by future cosmological observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainties in turbulent statistics and fluxes of CO2 associated with density effect corrections

Density effect corrections (DEC) are applied to adjust raw CO2 fluxes measured by eddy covariance (EC) systems with open-path gas analyzers. DEC is also required for adjusting the measured CO2 concentration fluctuations to obtain the adjusted CO2 for analyzing turbulent statistics or quantifying fluxes. However, our data show that the power spectra of the DEC-adjusted CO2 are distorted in the high frequency range, as compared with the corresponding spectra of temperature and water vapor density. This contradicts the similarity behavior of scalars, as suggested by Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. It is demonstrated that such a distortion is caused by the DEC-induced spikes in the DEC-adjusted CO2, altering turbulent statistics of CO2 and scalar similarity between CO2 and other scalars. Our results suggest that CO2 fluxes are overestimated by applying DEC especially under high Bowen ratio conditions, potentially leading to substantial uncertainties in long-term ecosystem carbon exchange in dry regions.

Gao, Zhongming↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temperature statistics in a radiatively heated particle-laden turbulent square duct flow

Radiation absorption by preferentially concentrated particles in a turbulent square duct flow is studied experimentally. The particle-laden flow is exposed to near-infrared radiation, and the gas phase temperature statistics are measured along the wall bisector of the duct. It is found that the instantaneous temperature fluctuations are comparable to the overall mean temperature rise. The temperature statistics at the duct centerline and near the wall are qualitatively different. The former reflects preferential concentration in isotropic flows while the latter displays evidence of particle clustering into streamwise elongated streaks. Comparison of the experimental data to a simplified heat transfer model suggests that the Lagrangian evolution of particle clusters and voids, and turbulent mixing in the vicinity of particle clusters, are important. This work was motivated by particle solar receiver technology, but the findings are also relevant to systems where there is localized heat release or mass transfer from disperse particles or droplets. It shows that obtaining Lagrangian histories of particle trajectories is an important next step towards understanding thermal transport phenomena in particle-laden turbulent flows.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Closures and Simulation for Thermal Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Nonlinear Temperature Dependence

Because of the practical challenge of rendering very complex realistic spatial structures for numerical work, it is common practice to resort to characterizing such media as stochastic mixtures of materials, ideally parametrized with low order statistics such as the mean, variance, and correlation functions of the now random material properties. This enables realizations of the medium to be repeatedly generated and radiation transport computations to, in principle, be performed for a large ensemble of these realizations to obtain a statistically well-characterized radiation field. Statistical post-processing yields desired quantities such as conditional and unconditional mean radiation flux and probability distributions of transmitted radiation. However, such computations prove expensive for all but the simplest stochastic geometries and are most suited for benchmarking approximate models. The most common approximations lead to homogenized media so that transport computations are required only on a single medium realization but by construct provide only limited statistical information on the radiation field. Almost all approximate approaches to this problem attempt to develop equations for low order moments of the radiation intensity (mean, second moment, correlation function) but inevitably encounter a closure problem: the equation for any statistical moment will contain terms depending on unknown higher-order moments. Thus, the challenge shifts to one of developing closure relations that relate the unknown moments to the lower order moments. Under very special conditions, an exact closure can be derived but in general closures are heuristically stated constitutive relations. Also, closure approaches depend on whether the mixing statistics are spatially and/or temporally continuous as in fluctuating turbulent fields, or discontinuous as in randomly mixed solid chunks of material. Thus, unconditional averaging is generally applied in the former case but conditional averaging is more appropriate when the mixing is discontinuous. In this work, the emphasis is on binary statistical mixtures of immiscible fluids as as such the quantities of interest are averages (flux, temperature) conditioned on the material type.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Small-correlated-against-large estimator for the lensing of the cosmic microwave background

Weak gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) carries imprints of the physics operating at redshifts much lower than that of recombination and serves as an important probe of cosmological structure formation, dark matter physics, and the mass of neutrinos. Reconstruction of the CMB lensing deflection field through use of quadratic estimators has proven successful with existing data but is known to be sub-optimal on small angular scales ($\ell > 3000$) for experiments with low noise levels. Future experiments will provide better observations in this regime, but these techniques will remain statistically limited by their approximations. We show that correlations between fluctuations of the large-scale temperature gradient power of the CMB sourced by $\ell < 2000$, and fluctuations of the local small-scale temperature power reveal a lensing signal which is prominent in even the real-space pixel statistics across a CMB temperature map. We present the development of the Small Correlated Against Large Estimator (SCALE), a novel estimator for the CMB lensing spectrum which offers promising complementary analysis alongside other reconstruction techniques in this regime. The SCALE method computes correlations between both the large/small-scale temperature gradient power in harmonic space, and it is able to quantitatively recover unbiased statistics of the CMB lensing field without the need for map-level reconstruction. SCALE can outperform quadratic estimator signal-to-noise by a factor of up to 1.5 in current and upcoming experiments for CMB lensing power spectra $C_{6000 < L < 8000}^{\phi\phi}$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

BPS fivebrane stars. Part II. Fluctuations

We investigate quantum fluctuations of metric components in coherent 1/2-BPS bound states of n1 fundamental strings and n 5 NS5-branes. The leading order contribution in an expansion in 1/(n 1 n 5 ) is calculated via a combination of analytical and numerical methods. We find that the fluctuations are small away from a tiny distance from the source, comparable to the 6d Planck scale. Comparing this result with an analysis in the literature of fluctuations in the maximally mixed state, we conclude that the large fluctuations previously found for the latter are statistical rather than quantum in nature, and that perturbative string theory provides an accurate description of these backgrounds.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Elucidation of the physical factors that control activated transport of penetrants in chemically complex glass-forming liquids

Understanding the activated transport of penetrant or tracer atoms and molecules in condensed phases is a challenging problem in chemistry, materials science, physics, and biophysics. Many angstrom- and nanometer-scale features enter due to the highly variable shape, size, interaction, and conformational flexibility of the penetrant and matrix species, leading to a dramatic diversity of penetrant dynamics. Based on a minimalist model of a spherical penetrant in equilibrated dense matrices of hard spheres, a recent microscopic theory that relates hopping transport to local structure has predicted a novel correlation between penetrant diffusivity and the matrix thermodynamic dimensionless compressibility, S 0 ( T ) (which also quantifies the amplitude of long wavelength density fluctuations), as a consequence of a fundamental statistical mechanical relationship between structure and thermodynamics. Moreover, the penetrant activation barrier is predicted to have a factorized/multiplicative form, scaling as the product of an inverse power law of S 0 ( T ) and a linear/logarithmic function of the penetrant-to-matrix size ratio. This implies an enormous reduction in chemical complexity that is verified based solely on experimental data for diverse classes of chemically complex penetrants dissolved in molecular and polymeric liquids over a wide range of temperatures down to the kinetic glass transition. The predicted corollary that the penetrant diffusion constant decreases exponentially with inverse temperature raised to an exponent determined solely by how S 0 ( T ) decreases with cooling is also verified experimentally. Our findings are relevant to fundamental questions in glassy dynamics, self-averaging of angstrom-scale chemical features, and applications such as membrane separations, barrier coatings, drug delivery, and self-healing.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

DRDMannTurb: A Python package for scalable, data-driven synthetic turbulence

Synthetic turbulence models (STMs) are used in wind engineering to generate realistic flow fields and are employed as inputs to industrial wind simulations. Examples include prescribing inlet conditions in large eddy simulations that model loads on wind turbines and tall buildings. We are interested in STMs capable of generating fluctuations based on prescribed second-moment statistics since such models can simulate environmental conditions that closely resemble on-site observations. To this end, the widely used Mann model (see Mann, 1994, 1998) is the inspiration for DRDMannTurb. The Mann model is described by three physical parameters: a magnitude parameter influencing the global variance of the wind field and corresponding to the Kolmogorov constant multiplied by the rate of viscous dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy to the two-thirds, αϵ 2/3 , a turbulence length scale parameter L, and a nondimensional parameter Γ related to the lifetime of the eddies. A number of studies, as well as international standards (e.g., those by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)), include recommended values for these three parameters with the goal of standardizing wind simulations according to observed energy spectra. Yet, having only three parameters, the Mann model faces limitations in accurately representing the diversity of observable spectra. This Python package enables users to extend the Mann model and more accurately fit field measurements through flexible neural network models of the eddy lifetime function. Following Keith et al. (2021), we refer to this class of models as Deep Rapid Distortion (DRD) models. DRDMannTurb also includes a general module implementing an efficient method for synthetic turbulence generation based on a domain decomposition technique. This technique is also described in Keith et al. (2021).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Full Counting Statistics of Charge in Chaotic Many-Body Quantum Systems

We investigate the full counting statistics of charge transport in U(1)-symmetric random unitary circuits. We consider an initial mixed state prepared with a chemical potential imbalance between the left and right halves of the system and study the fluctuations of the charge transferred across the central bond in typical circuits. Using an effective replica statistical mechanics model and a mapping onto an emergent classical stochastic process valid at large on-site Hilbert space dimension, we show that charge transfer fluctuations approach those of the symmetric exclusion process at long times, with subleading t –1/2 quantum corrections. Here, we discuss our results in the context of fluctuating hydrodynamics and macroscopic fluctuation theory of classical nonequilibrium systems and check our predictions against direct matrix-product state calculations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lagrangian and Eulerian Supersaturation Statistics in Turbulent Cloudy Rayleigh–Bénard Convection: Applications for LES Subgrid Modeling

Abstract Turbulent fluctuations of scalar and velocity fields are critical for cloud microphysical processes, e.g., droplet activation and size distribution evolution, and can therefore influence cloud radiative forcing and precipitation formation. Lagrangian and Eulerian water vapor, temperature, and supersaturation statistics are investigated in direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection in the Pi Convection Cloud Chamber to provide a foundation for parameterizing subgrid-scale fluctuations in atmospheric models. A subgrid model for water vapor and temperature variances and covariance and supersaturation variance is proposed, valid for both clear and cloudy conditions. Evaluation of phase change contributions through an a priori test using DNS data shows good performance of the model. Supersaturation is a nonlinear function of temperature and water vapor, and relative external fluxes of water vapor and heat (e.g., during entrainment-mixing and phase change) influence turbulent supersaturation fluctuations. Although supersaturation has autocorrelation and structure functions similar to the independent scalars (temperature and water vapor), the autocorrelation time scale of supersaturation differs. Relative scalar fluxes in DNS without cloud make supersaturation PDFs less skewed than the adiabatic case, where they are highly negatively skewed. However, droplet condensation changes the PDF shape response: it becomes positively skewed for the adiabatic case and negatively skewed when the sidewall relative fluxes are large. Condensation also increases correlations between water vapor and temperature in the presence of relative scalar fluxes but decreases correlations for the adiabatic case. These changes in correlation suppress supersaturation variability for the nonadiabatic cases and increase it for the adiabatic case. Implications of this work for subgrid microphysics modeling using a Lagrangian stochastic scheme are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Normal modes, rotational inertia, and thermal fluctuations of trapped ion crystals

The normal modes of a trapped ion crystal are derived using an approach based on the Hermitian properties of the system’s dynamical matrix. This method is equivalent to the standard Bogoliubov method, but for classical systems it is arguably simpler and more general in that canonical coordinates are not necessary. The theory is developed for stable, unstable, and neutrally-stable systems. The method is then applied to ion crystals in a Penning trap. Reduced eigenvalue problems for the case of large applied magnetic field are developed, for which the spectrum breaks into E x B drift modes, axial modes, and cyclotron modes. Thermal fluctuation levels in these modes are analyzed and shown to be consistent with the Bohr-van-Leeuwen theorem, provided that neutrally-stable modes associated with crystal rotations are included in the analysis. An expression for the rotational inertia of the crystal is derived, and a magnetic contribution to this inertia, which dominates in large magnetic fields, is described. An unusual limit is discovered for the special case of spherically-symmetric confinement, in which the rotational inertia does not exist and changes in angular momentum leave the rotation frequency unaffected.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based cosmological inference with wavelet harmonics, scattering transforms, and moments of weak lensing mass maps. II. cosmological results

Here, we present a simulation-based cosmological analysis using a combination of Gaussian and non-Gaussian statistics of the weak lensing mass (convergence) maps from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey. We implement the following: (1) second and third moments; (2) wavelet phase harmonics; (3) the scattering transform. Our analysis is fully based on simulations, spans a space of seven 𝑤 Cold Dark Matter (𝑤⁢ CDM) cosmological parameters, and forward models the most relevant sources of systematics inherent in the data: masks, noise variations, clustering of the sources, intrinsic alignments, and shear and redshift calibration. We implement a neural network compression of the summary statistics, and we estimate the parameter posteriors using a simulation-based inference approach. Including and combining different non-Gaussian statistics is a powerful tool that strongly improves constraints over Gaussian statistics (in our case, the second moments); in particular, the figure of merit (𝑆 8 , Ω m ) is improved by 70% (Λ ⁢CDM) and 90% (𝑤 ⁢CDM). When all the summary statistics are combined, we achieve a 2% constraint on the amplitude of fluctuations parameter 𝑆 8 ≡ 𝜎 8 ⁢(Ω m /0.3) 0.5 , obtaining 𝑆 8 = 0.794 ±0.017 (Λ⁢ CDM) and 𝑆 8 = 0.817 ±0.021 (𝑤 ⁢CDM), and a ∼10% constraint on Ω m , obtaining Ω m =0.259 ±0.025 (Λ ⁢CDM) and Ω m = 0.273 ±0.029 (𝑤⁢ CDM). In the context of the 𝑤⁢ CDM scenario, these statistics also strengthen the constraints on the parameter 𝑤, obtaining 𝑤 <−0.72. The constraints from different statistics are shown to be internally consistent (with a 𝑝-value>0.1 for all combinations of statistics examined). We compare our results to other weak lensing results from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey data, finding good consistency; we also compare with results from external datasets, such as planck constraints from the cosmic microwave background, finding statistical agreement, with discrepancies no greater than <2.2⁢𝜎.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strain fields in twisted bilayer graphene

Van der Waals heteroepitaxy allows deterministic control over lattice mismatch or azimuthal orientation between atomic layers to produce long-wavelength superlattices. The resulting electronic phases depend critically on the superlattice periodicity and localized structural deformations that introduce disorder and strain. In this study we used Bragg interferometry to capture atomic displacement fields in twisted bilayer graphene with twist angles < 2°. Nanoscale spatial fluctuations in twist angle and uniaxial heterostrain were statistically evaluated, revealing the prevalence of short-range disorder in moiré heterostructures. By quantitatively mapping strain tensor fields, we uncovered two regimes of structural relaxation and disentangled the electronic contributions of constituent rotation modes. Further, we found that applied heterostrain accumulates anisotropically in saddle-point regions, generating distinctive striped strain phases. Our results establish the reconstruction mechanics underpinning the twist-angle-dependent electronic behaviour of twisted bilayer graphene and provide a framework for directly visualizing structural relaxation, disorder and strain in moiré materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stability of Kuramoto networks subject to large and small fluctuations from heterogeneous and spatially correlated noise

Oscillatory networks subjected to noise are broadly used to model physical and technological systems. Due to their nonlinear coupling, such networks typically have multiple stable and unstable states that a network might visit due to noise. In this article, we focus on the assessment of fluctuations resulting from heterogeneous and spatially correlated noise inputs on Kuramoto model networks. We evaluate the typical, small fluctuations near synchronized states and connect the network variance to the overlap between stable modes of synchronization and the input noise covariance. Going beyond small to large fluctuations, we introduce the indicator mode approximation that projects the dynamics onto a single amplitude dimension. Such an approximation allows for estimating rates of fluctuations to saddle instabilities, resulting in phase slips between connected oscillators. Statistics for both regimes are quantified in terms of effective noise amplitudes that are compared and contrasted for several noise models. In conclusion, bridging the gap between small and large fluctuations, we show that a larger network variance does not necessarily lead to higher rates of large fluctuations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of the Coral Microbiome: the Influence of Temperature and Microbial Network

Host-associated microbial communities are shaped by extrinsic and intrinsic factors to the holobiont organism. Environmental factors and microbe-microbe interactions act simultaneously on the microbial community structure, making the microbiome dynamics challenging to predict. The coral microbiome is essential to the health of coral reefs and sensitive to environmental changes. Here, we develop a dynamic model to determine the microbial community structure associated with the surface mucus layer (SML) of corals using temperature as an extrinsic factor and microbial network as an intrinsic factor. The model was validated by comparing the predicted relative abundances of microbial taxa to the relative abundances of microbial taxa from the sample data. The SML microbiome from Pseudodiploria strigosa was collected across reef zones in Bermuda, where inner and outer reefs are exposed to distinct thermal profiles. A shotgun metagenomics approach was used to describe the taxonomic composition and the microbial network of the coral SML microbiome. By simulating the annual temperature fluctuations at each reef zone, the model output is statistically identical to the observed data. The model was further applied to six scenarios that combined different profiles of temperature and microbial network to investigate the influence of each of these two factors on the model accuracy. The SML microbiome was best predicted by model scenarios with the temperature profile that was closest to the local thermal environment, regardless of the microbial network profile. Our model shows that the SML microbiome of P. strigosa in Bermuda is primarily structured by seasonal fluctuations in temperature at a reef scale, while the microbial network is a secondary driver. Coral microbiome dysbiosis (i.e., shifts in the microbial community structure or complete loss of microbial symbionts) caused by environmental changes is a key player in the decline of coral health worldwide. Multiple factors in the water column and the surrounding biological community influence the dynamics of the coral microbiome. However, by including only temperature as an external factor, our model proved to be successful in describing the microbial community associated with the surface mucus layer (SML) of the coral P. strigosa. The dynamic model developed and validated in this study is a potential tool to predict the coral microbiome under different temperature conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗