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DOE OSTI2023

Formal Experimentation and Analysis of Handheld RFID Readers as a Tool for Nuclear Material Accounting

Commercial, off-the-shelf Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems have been successfully deployed for inventory tracking in numerous industries, but their viability in the tracking of complex environments containing nuclear material is less understood. Of primary interest in this setting is a RFID tracking system for nuclear material accounting which can reliably identify as many tags as possible with high accuracy, while also reducing an operator’s exposure to radiation. In this work, we develop a formal statistical approach to identify relevant handheld RFID reader settings which optimize tagging performance. To achieve this goal, we design a full factorial split-plot experiment for a static shelf configuration scene with 50 randomly placed nuclear material containers affixed with RFID tags. We use Bayesian inference to fit a second-order response surface model which expresses the probability of a successful match for each container as a function of the experimental factors. Such effects are allowed to vary across individual containers and the containers’ population in its entirety to estimate overall effects. Uncertainties of estimates and predictions are quantified via their corresponding posterior distributions. Following extensive model checking and validation, the fitted model is used to identify experimental factors which maximize matching probabilities at both the container-level and for the full shelf configuration scene. We also analyze sensitivity of performance to relevant factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2018

QP Statistics Spotlight: Randomization – At Random: The rationale behind randomization, and options when up against constraints

While randomization may seem like a small part of the overall plan for implementing a designed experiment, it is important to protect against systematic bias and to justify the interpretation of the analysis results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Making inertial confinement fusion models more predictive

Computer models of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions play an essential role in experimental design and interpretation as well as our understanding of fundamental physics under the most extreme conditions that can be reached in the laboratory. Building truly predictive models is a significant challenge, with the potential to greatly accelerate progress to high yield and ignition. One path to more predictive models is to use experimental data to update the underlying physics in a way that can be extrapolated to new experiments and regimes. We describe a statistical framework for the calibration of ICF simulations using data collected at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). We perform Bayesian inferences for a series of laser shots using an approach that is designed to respect the physics simulation as much as possible and then build a second model that links the individual-shot inferences together. We show that this approach is able to match multiple X-ray and neutron diagnostics for a whole series of NIF “BigFoot” shots. Within the context of 2D radiation hydrodynamic simulations, our inference strongly favors a significant reduction in fuel compression over other known degradation mechanisms (namely, hohlraum issues and engineering perturbations). This analysis is expanded using a multifidelity technique to pick fuel-ablator mix from several candidate causes of the degraded fuel compression (including X-ray preheat and shock timing errors). Finally, we use our globally calibrated model to investigate the extra laser drive energy that would be required to overcome the inferred fuel compression issues in NIF BigFoot implosions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Combination of cluster number counts and two-point correlations: validation on mock Dark Energy Survey

ABSTRACT We present a method of combining cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations, namely galaxy clustering, galaxy–cluster cross-correlations, cluster autocorrelations, and cluster lensing. This data vector yields comparable cosmological constraints to traditional analyses that rely on small-scale cluster lensing for mass calibration. We use cosmological survey simulations designed to resemble the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES-Y1) data to validate the analytical covariance matrix and the parameter inferences. The posterior distribution from the analysis of simulations is statistically consistent with the absence of systematic biases detectable at the precision of the DES-Y1 experiment. We compare the χ2 values in simulations to their expectation and find no significant difference. The robustness of our results against a variety of systematic effects is verified using a simulated likelihood analysis of DES-Y1-like data vectors. This work presents the first-ever end-to-end validation of a cluster abundance cosmological analysis on galaxy catalogue level simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Discontinuities in effective permeability due to fracture percolation

Motivated by a triaxial coreflood experiment with a sample of Utica shale where an abrupt jump in permeability was observed, possibly due to the creation of a percolating fracture network through the sample, we perform numerical simulations based on the experiment to characterize how the effective permeability of otherwise low-permeability porous media depends on fracture formation, connectivity, and the contrast between the fracture and matrix permeabilities. While a change in effective permeability due to fracture formation is expected, the dependence of its magnitude upon the contrast between the matrix permeability and fracture permeability and the fracture network structure is poorly characterized. We use two different high-fidelity fracture network models to characterize how effective permeability changes as percolation occurs. The first is a dynamic two-dimensional fracture propagation model designed to mimic the laboratory settings of the experiment. The second is a static three-dimensional discrete fracture network (DFN) model, whose fracture and network statistics are based on the fractured sample of Utica shale. Once the network connects the inflow and outflow boundaries, the effective permeability increases non-linearly with network density. In most networks considered, a jump in the effective permeability was observed when the embedded fracture network percolated. We characterize how the magnitude of the jump, should it occur, depends on the contrast between the fracture and matrix permeabilities. For small contrasts between the matrix and fracture permeabilities the change is insignificant. However, for larger contrasts, there is a substantial jump whose magnitude depends non-linearly on the difference between matrix and fracture permeabilities. A power-law relationship between the size of the jump and the difference between the matrix and fracture permeabilities is observed. In conclusion, the presented results underscore the importance of fracture network topology on the upscaled properties of the porous medium in which it is embedded.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Data mining graphene: Correlative analysis of structure and electronic degrees of freedom in graphenic monolayers with defects

The link between changes in the material crystal structure and its mechanical, electronic, magnetic, and optical functionalities known as the structure-property relationship is the cornerstone of the contemporary materials science research. The recent advances in scanning transmission electron and scanning probe microscopies (STEM and SPM) have opened an unprecedented path towards examining the materials structure property relationships on the single-impurity and atomic-configuration levels. Lacking, however, are the statistics-based approaches for cross-correlation of structure and property variables obtained in different information channels of the STEM and SPM experiments. Here we have designed an approach based on a combination of sliding window Fast Fourier Transform, Pearson correlation matrix, linear and kernel canonical correlation, to study a relationship between lattice distortions and electron scattering from the SPM data on graphene with defects. Our analysis revealed that the strength of coupling to strain is altered between different scattering channels which can explain coexistence of several quasiparticle interference patterns in the nanoscale regions of interest. In addition, the application of the kernel functions allowed us extracting a non-linear component of the relationship between the lattice strain and scattering intensity in graphene. Lastly, the outlined approach can be further utilized to analyzing correlations in various multi-modal imaging techniques where the information of interest is spatially distributed and has usually a complex multidimensional nature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Probing Flavor Asymmetry of Anti-quarks in the Proton by Drell-Yan Experiment SeaQuest

A new measurement on the avor asymmetry between d and u in the proton is reported in this thesis. The proton contains a substantial number of antiquarks which arise from dynamical interactions of gluons such as gluon dissociation to a quark-antiquark pair, g ! q + q, and from non-perturbative processes as described by the pion-cloud model, for example. The antiquarks in the proton undertake an important role in determining the dynamic characteristics of the internal structure of the proton, although its distribution in the proton and its origin are not fully understood. Understanding sea quarks in hadron is an important subject for QCD. The SeaQuest experiment at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (Fermilab) is a xed target experiment using the 120 GeV proton beam extracted from the Fermilab Main Injector. One of the goals of the experiment is to measure the avor asymmetry between d quark and u quark in the proton as a function of the target Bjorken x using the Drell-Yan process in the p-p or p-d reactions. This process takes place in hadron-hadron collisions when a quark in one hadron in the beam and an antiquark in other hadron in the target annihilate into a virtual photon that decays into a lepton pair. The avor asymmetry between d and u quarks was found by deep-inelastic scattering experiment NMC at CERN. The E866/NuSea experiment at Fermilab obtained the avor asymmetry in the proton for 0:015 < x < 0:35 using the 800 GeV proton beam extracted from the Fermilab Tevatron. The result indicates the dominance of d; it is 70% larger than u at lower x. The SeaQuest experiment was planned to do a new precise measurement at higher x region. The lower energy beam (120 GeV) increases the Drell-Yan cross section and suppresses the background primarily arising from J/ decays. Therefore, SeaQuest will obtain more statistics in a shorter time than the E866 experiment. After detector construction, detector commissioning and accelerator upgrade, physics data taking started in 2013. The SeaQuest spectrometer is designed to detect dimuon from the Drell-Yan process. It consists of targets, two di-pole magnets, and four tracking detector groups. The third tracking detector group has two drift chambers. One was newly fabricated in Japan by the Japanese group in SeaQuest collaboration and was shipped to Fermilab. The other one was constructed by SeaQuest collaborator in Fermilab under the initiative of the Japanese group. I worked on the construction and installation of the detectors, data taking and data analysis in SeaQuest. I extracted the avor asymmetry as a function of Bjorken x using the SeaQuest data for the rst time. This thesis shows the results using a part of data taken in 2014 and 2015. The asymmetry was extracted for much wider Bjorken x region than the previous experiment. The measured Bjorken x range covers up to 0.58. The result shows that the ratio of d=u is always higher than 1 at 0:1 < x < 0:45, in contrast to the E866 result. For 0:45 < x < 0:58, the result shows that the ratio is close to unity. Predictions made by current PDF parameterizations are in agreement with the present result. Also, a prediction obtained by one of the non-perturbative models, pion-cloud model, is closer to the SeaQuest result than the E866 result. This result of d=u asymmetry at the wide Bjorken x region, 0:1 < x < 0:58, is very important information to understand the inner structure of the proton and the origin of the sea quarks in the proton.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

From noise to information: The transfer function formalism for uncertainty quantification in reconstructing the nuclear density

The neutron distribution of neutron-rich nuclei provides critical information on the structure of finite nuclei and neutron stars. Parity violating experiments—such as PREX and CREX—provide a clean and largely model-independent determination of neutron densities. Such experiments, however, are challenging and expensive, which is why sound statistical arguments are required to maximize the information gained. We introduce a new framework, the “transfer function formalism,” aimed at uncertainty quantification, model selection, and experimental design in the context of neutron densities. The transfer functions (TFs) are built analytically by expressing the linear response of the objective function (e.g., χ2) to small perturbations of the data. Using the TF formalism, we are able to analyze the expected overall uncertainty—quantified in terms of bias and variance—of the mean square radius and interior density of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. Using relativistic mean field models as a proxy for the weak-charge density—and assuming that a total of five measurements could be performed on the weak form factor of 48 Ca and 208 Pb—we identify the optimal models and experimental locations that minimize the uncertainty in the extraction of the radius and interior density. We also explore the use of the TF formalism to understand the influence of prior distributions for the model parameters, as well as the optimization of model hyperparameters not constrained by the data. Here,we establish how the choice of experimental locations and the model that is used can have a significant impact on the final uncertainties of the extracted quantities of interest. For challenging experiments such as CREX and PREX, a proper quantification of such uncertainties is critical. We have demonstrated how the TF formalism provides several advantages for this type of analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Estimating the joint distribution of rate parameters across multiple reactions in the absence of experimental data

Here, a procedure for determining the joint uncertainty of Arrhenius parameters across multiple combustion reactions of interest is demonstrated. This approach is capable of constructing the joint distribution of the Arrhenius parameters arising from the uncertain measurements performed in specific target experiments without having direct access to the underlying experimental data. The method involves constructing an ensemble of hypothetical data sets with summary statistics consistent with the available information reported by the experimentalists, followed by a fitting procedure that learns the structure of the joint parameter density across reactions using this consistent hypothetical data as evidence. The procedure is formalized in a Bayesian statistical framework, employing maximum-entropy and approximate Bayesian computation methods and utilizing efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to explore data and parameter spaces in a nested algorithm. We demonstrate the application of the method in the context of experiments designed to measure the rates of selected chain reactions in the H 2 -O 2 system and highlight the utility of this approach for revealing the critical correlations between the parameters within a single reaction and across reactions, as well as for maximizing consistency when utilizing rate parameter information in predictive combustion modeling of systems of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Predicting the performance uncertainty of a 1-MW pilot-scale carbon capture system after hierarchical laboratory-scale calibration and validation

A challenging problem in designing pilot-scale carbon capture systems is to predict, with uncertainty, the adsorber performance and capture efficiency under various operating conditions where no direct experimental data exist. Motivated by this challenge, we previously proposed a hierarchical framework in which relevant parameters of physical models were sequentially calibrated from different laboratory-scale carbon capture unit (C2U) experiments. Specifically, three models of increasing complexity were identified based on the fundamental physical and chemical processes of the sorbent-based carbon capture technology. Results from the corresponding laboratory experiments were used to statistically calibrate the physical model parameters while quantifying some of their inherent uncertainty. The parameter distributions obtained from laboratory-scale C2U calibration runs are used in this study to facilitate prediction at a larger scale where no corresponding experimental results are available. In this paper, we first describe the multiphase reactive flow model for a sorbent-based 1-MW carbon capture system then analyze results from an ensemble of simulations with the upscaled model. The simulation results are used to quantify uncertainty regarding the design’s predicted efficiency in carbon capture. In particular, we determine the minimum gas flow rate necessary to achieve 90% capture efficiency with 95% confidence.

bubbling bed↗

DOE OSTI2022

Perspectives on Polyolefin Catalysis in Microfluidics for High-Throughput Screening: A Minireview

Polyolefins are the largest produced plastics in the world which traditionally employ continuous stirred tank reactors and fluidized bed reactors for commercial production. The operating condition, reaction kinetics, and molecular interactions inside the reactor strongly affect the polyolefin properties, which require stringent process control in conventional procedures. Understanding the catalytic pathway, behavior of polymer particles and effect of reactor conditions are essential for designing specific polymer properties, namely the molecular weight, chain length, polydispersity, etc. Microfluidics can play a significant role in designing polymers tailored to the user needs. Smaller channel dimensions help obtain uniform reaction conditions over the length of the microfluidic reactor in a controlled environment. With real-time monitoring techniques in microfluidics, even single particle growth of polymer can be studied to understand the parameters affecting the polymer properties. High throughput microfluidics can help catalyst screening in a short duration with less consumption of reagents generating less waste. When supplemented with efficient machine learning algorithms, automated high throughput microfluidics has the potential to rapidly optimize the process and develop new knowledge even with a limited data set. When trained on data sets generated using microfluidic experiments that are designed efficiently with working knowledge of the process, machine learning algorithms can provide the relationship between the multivariable parameters space and polymer properties, which is not possible with the traditional statistical methods and interpolation techniques. Here, the rise in the utilization of microfluidics, with the advancement of machine learning algorithms, for polyolefin catalysis, highlights the importance of microfluidics for catalyst discovery, parameter optimization, and understanding reaction pathway for producing polymers with specific properties for specialized applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Responsiveness of miscanthus and switchgrass yields to stand age and nitrogen fertilization: A meta‐regression analysis

Abstract Optimal management of the perennial bioenergy crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, requires an understanding of their responsiveness to nitrogen (N) fertilizer at different maturity stages across locations and growing conditions. Earlier studies that have examined the yield response of these crops to N and stand age using field experiments or meta‐analysis techniques provide mixed evidence. We extend earlier studies by applying a multi‐level mixed‐effects (MLME) meta‐regression model to conduct a more extensive multivariate regression of yield response of these crops to N and stand age, while controlling for climate and location conditions and unobserved factors related to study design. Our findings are based on 1403 and 2811 yield observations for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively, from experiments conducted between 2002 and 2019 across the rainfed region in the United States. We find statistically significant evidence that an additional year of maturity increases miscanthus and switchgrass yields but at a decreasing rate; yields peak at the 7th and 6th year respectively, for the observed range of applied N rates and stands. We also find that an increase in N application increases yield by a statistically significant level, but at a declining rate; the magnitude of the yield response to N is, however, small and varies with the age of the crop. The impact of N is larger on older compared to younger and middle‐aged stands of miscanthus. In contrast, the impact of N on switchgrass is larger on middle‐aged compared to younger and older stands of switchgrass. We do not find a statistically significant effect of soil productivity on yield for either crop. This analysis provides a basis for developing N application recommendations and optimal rotation age for miscanthus and switchgrass and shows that these energy crops can grow just as productively on low productivity land as on high productivity land.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Effects of Platform Design on the Customer Experience in an Online Solar PV Marketplace

We analyze a unique dataset of residential solar PV quotes offered in an online marketplace to understand how platform design changes affect customer outcomes. Three of the four design changes are associated with statistically significant and robust reductions in offer prices, though none of the policies were designed explicitly to reduce prices. The results suggest that even small changes in how prospective solar PV customers interact with installers can affect customer outcomes such as prices. Specifically, the four changes we evaluate are: 1) a customer map that shows potential new EnergySage registrants the locations of nearby customers; 2) a quote cap that precludes more than seven installers from bidding on any one customer; 3) a price guidance feature that informs installers about competitive prices in the customer's market before they submit quotes; and 4) no pre-quote messaging to prohibit installers from contacting customers prior to offering quotes. We calculate descriptive statistics to investigate whether each design change accomplished its specific objectives. Then, we econometrically evaluate the impacts of the design changes on PV quote prices and purchase prices using a regression discontinuity approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Temperature SiC Cladding End Plug Irradiation Design and HFIR Readiness

This report documents the design of a High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) irradiation experiment intended to evaluate irradiation effects on the hermeticity of silicon carbide (SiC) end plug specimens under a radial fast neutron flux gradient at representative light-water reactor (LWR) temperatures of approximately 300 °C. The overarching goal of this work is to statistically evaluate SiC end plug hermeticity and mechanical properties following irradiation using the high-throughput irradiation capability discussed here. Each specimen consists of a short section of SiC fiber–reinforced SiC (SiC/SiC) tube with a single monolithic SiC end plug joined to one end. The experiment allows up to 66 specimens to be irradiated in six different stacks within a dry, sealed irradiation capsule derived from the previously developed high-temperature SiC/SiC cladding bowing experiment. The neutronics basis, thermal analysis, and HFIR readiness of the experiment are discussed in this report for two possible design cases. The first design case is based on existing approval documentation and components that are on hand and approved for use, so the experiment insertion would require only specimen receipt, specimen pre-irradiation characterization, experiment assembly, and final fabrication package approval. The second design case provides improved thermal robustness and the preferred end plug geometry but requires fabrication of a modified holder and revisions to the HFIR approval documentation, in addition to the other activities required for the first design case, before insertion.

Hott, Daniel [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Throughput Discovery Illuminates Design Principles and Limits for Long-Lived Charged Species in Organic Electrolytes

The chemical stability of charged molecules in all-organic redox flow batteries (RFBs) is required for the prolonged operation of these devices. Molecular engineering and electrolyte optimization are used to mitigate parasitic reactions and extend the lifetimes of the charge carriers. However, how much can structural variation extend the lifetime? To probe this query, we designed a high-throughput kinetic study of the radical cation of N-methylphenothiazinium, guided by statistical sampling and learning algorithms. Using Argonne’s autonomous discovery facility, we conducted over 6,000 kinetic experiments with robotic sample preparation, parallel kinetic measurements, and machine learning inputs, testing 188 solvent molecules selected from a space of over 540 candidates from 11 chemical classes. Algorithmic selections guided us to stable solvent candidates, which were further tested in high concentration with and without supporting electrolyte. Our findings reveal the inherent difficulty of exceeding the current state of the art through solvent variation. The desired stability is statistically rare and poorly predictable. Among the many tested, only three solvents significantly outperformed our baseline, acetonitrile─and none by more than a factor of 3─suggesting a general challenge in achieving the necessary techno-economic targets. Furthermore, we suggest that self-discharge through solvent homolysis is the cause of the observed limitations. Several structural motifs contribute to >1,000 h half-life stability including molecular simplicity, symmetry, oxidation complement, and strategic fluorination. Importantly, this workflow establishes effective assays for diagnosing and predicting oxidative stress for highly stable liquid electrolytes in all batteries.

Batteries↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving Self-Driving Labs: Quantifying System-Level Experiment Repeatability and Broadening Instrument-Level Compatibility

Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) is a self-driving laboratory (SDL) which performs wet-lab science with peptide-lanthanide combinations in an automated and, ultimately, an autonomous manner to aid in soil analysis for domestic lithium mining. Autonomous experimentation involves automated experimentation, experiment planning, and active learning. MARS consists of a 6-axis robotic arm (UR5e) on a linear rail, pipette robots (Opentrons 2), and microplate readers. These components transport, operate on, and collect data with chemical solutions in standard labware. For effective autonomy, MARS must perform system-level labware operations repeatably, plan experiments autonomously, and be portable between research-domains. Repeatability is evaluated by labware placement precision, such that future operations can properly locate labware, as well as the elapsed time, so that low variance mean estimates of experiment duration can inform high-level researcher decision making. Autonomous experiment planning is the next step to decouple experimentation from human management; however, there is a conflict between the ideal system-level experiment goals and the constraints imposed by instruments’ limitations. Sub-domain portability is a long-term goal to extend MARS’ research beyond the chemistry of peptide-lanthanide binding to other sub-domains without having to invest significant overhead to system retrofitting. To address these goals, we manually trained the robotic arm labware placement and modelled statistical failurerate and uncertainty Additionally, we benchmarked the duration and variance of each experiment sub-operation as a heuristic for research decision making. Next, we use a parameterized geometric program (PGP) approach to design experiments that optimize system-level objectives and satisfy instrument-level constraints. Lastly, we proposed a Python framework to maximize MARS’ extensibility to other scientific sub-domains through a JSON-based experiment specification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Road to PROSPECT-II

The Precision Reactor Oscillation and SPECTrum (PROSPECT) experiment is based in a segmented liquid scintillator antineutrino detector situated approximately 7 meters from the highly enriched High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Its main goal is to investigate short-baseline antineutrino oscillations. The first phase of data collection, known as PROSPECT-I, was held from 2018 to 2019 and was used for several high-precision analyses, including multiple measurements of the $^{235}U$ antineutrino spectrum and searches for $eV$-scale sterile antineutrino oscillations. The collaboration is now preparing for the second phase, PROSPECT-II, which features an upgraded detector design. This advancement will enhance sensitivity and statistical power, allowing for a broader range of analyses beyond those achieved in PROSPECT-I. As we transition into this new phase, new questions have arisen concerning background simulation and its potential differences from those conducted during the initial phase of the experiment. Moreover, it is essential to ascertain, through simulations, the positive effects that an improved detector could have on the study of oscillations. This information is crucial for justifying the proposed enhancements, and I will cover all of this in the talk.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Road to PROSPECT-II

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗