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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Out-of-Distribution Detection and Radiological Data Monitoring Using Statistical Process Control

Abstract Machine learning (ML) models often fail with data that deviates from their training distribution. This is a significant concern for ML-enabled devices as data drift may lead to unexpected performance. This work introduces a new framework for out of distribution (OOD) detection and data drift monitoring that combines ML and geometric methods with statistical process control (SPC). We investigated different design choices, including methods for extracting feature representations and drift quantification for OOD detection in individual images and as an approach for input data monitoring. We evaluated the framework for both identifying OOD images and demonstrating the ability to detect shifts in data streams over time. We demonstrated a proof-of-concept via the following tasks: 1) differentiating axial vs. non-axial CT images, 2) differentiating CXR vs. other radiographic imaging modalities, and 3) differentiating adult CXR vs. pediatric CXR. For the identification of individual OOD images, our framework achieved high sensitivity in detecting OOD inputs: 0.980 in CT, 0.984 in CXR, and 0.854 in pediatric CXR. Our framework is also adept at monitoring data streams and identifying the time a drift occurred. In our simulations tracking drift over time, it effectively detected a shift from CXR to non-CXR instantly, a transition from axial to non-axial CT within few days, and a drift from adult to pediatric CXRs within a day—all while maintaining a low false positive rate. Through additional experiments, we demonstrate the framework is modality-agnostic and independent from the underlying model structure, making it highly customizable for specific applications and broadly applicable across different imaging modalities and deployed ML models.

Zamzmi, Ghada↗

Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model

Near-real-time (NRT) streamflow data are critical importance for timely water resources management. Here, we developed an open-source tool, FlowStats, for NRT streamflow analysis and visualization in Germany, based on NRT meteorological data from the German Weather Service and simulated streamflow from a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The LSTM model achieved very good overall performance, median NSE of 0.80 for the test period across 1,479 catchments. FlowStats provides options for deriving various streamflow statistics, from normal and abnormal streamflow detection to drought and flood analyses. An example analysis from FlowStats revealed widespread below-normal to extreme low-flow conditions across Germany from March to May 2025, which weakened from June to September 2025. Drought analysis for September 2025 highlighted severe to extreme drought conditions in northwestern Germany, while flood classifications indicated that high-flow events occurred in southwestern Germany. FlowStats can be used for various hydrological assessments to support water resources management.

Hydrological modeling↗

A statistical approach to analyzing domain dynamics in ferroelectric crystals using X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy

Ferroelectric materials exhibit strong electromechanical coupling, largely influenced by their domain structures. Numerous microstructural studies indicate that smaller domains with higher domain wall density generally enhance domain wall motion, although some inconsistencies have been reported. In this work, we use X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) to probe dynamic response in Pb(Mg 1/3 Nb 2/3 )O 3 -29PbTiO 3 (PMN-29PT) single crystals under applied electric fields. We introduce a two-field correlation approach, adapted from conventional two-time correlation to quantify dynamics. Statistical analysis reveals that both [001]-oriented direct current (DC) and alternating current (AC) poled samples show Poisson-like behavior within specific electric field regions. The DC-poled samples exhibit more frequent domain wall jump events but with smaller amount of decorrelation per jump event, whereas the AC-poled samples show fewer jump events with larger decorrelation per jump event. This observation aligns with the prevalence of 109° domain walls in the AC-poled samples, which contribute to more domain wall motion. These findings provide experimental evidence of collective domain wall motion and establish a direct connection between mesoscale dynamics and electromechanical response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nuclear β − -decay with statistical de-excitation

he accurate description of nuclear β − -decay has far-reaching consequences for applications spanning nuclear reactors to the creation of heavy elements in astrophysical environments. We present the nuclear particle spectra associated with the β -decay of neutron-rich nuclei calculated with the well benchmarked coupled Quasi-particle Random Phase Approximation and Hauser–Feshbach (QRPA+HF) model. This approach begins with the population of the daughter nucleus via semi-microscopic Gamow-Teller or First-Forbidden strength distributions (QRPA) and follows the statistical de-excitation (HF) until the initial available excitation energy is exhausted. At each stage of de-excitation the emission by neutrons and $γ$-rays is considered obeying quantum mechanical selection rules. For completeness we also provide parsed Auger and Internal Conversion (IC) electron spectra from Evaluated Nuclear Data Files (ENDF). Our results are tabulated and provided in parsable ASCII formatted tables that are suitable for inclusion in various applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Stochastic symplectic reduced-order modeling for model-form uncertainty quantification in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles

Here, this work focuses on the representation of model-form uncertainties in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles. In prior contributions, the modeling of such uncertainties was formalized and applied to quantify the impact of, and the error generated by, pair-potential selection in the microcanonical ensemble (NVE). In this work, we extend this formulation and present a linear-subspace reduced-order model for the canonical (NVT) and isobaric (NPT) ensembles. The symplectic reduced-order basis is randomized on the tangent space of the Stiefel manifold to provide topological relationships and capture model-form uncertainty. Using the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS), we assess the relevance of these stochastic reduced-order atomistic models on canonical problems involving a Lennard-Jones fluid and an argon crystal melt.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Capturing the fractocohesive length scale in elastomers through a statistical mechanics-based gradient enhanced damage model

Here, this study aims to examine modeling flaw sensitivity in elastomers. The direct incorporation of polymer chain statistical mechanics considerations into a continuum stretch-based gradient-enhanced damage formulation, in turn, allows a representation of diffuse chain damage and fracture events that align with known micromechanical mechanisms. Through a series of numerical experiments, we simulate crack propagation and extract the fracture energy as an output of the model, while keeping track of the micromechanical signatures of diffuse chain damage that accommodate fracture propagation and eventually influence flaw sensitivity. Finally, by combining the fracture toughness and the work to rupture, we identify a fractocohesive length of the material, corresponding to the full width of the damage process zone. As the damage-to-fracture cascade in the proposed GED model is influenced by the introduction of a length scale associated with network imperfection and long-range load transfer, the emerging relationship of the two length scales is discussed, providing a potential link between microscopic damage mechanisms and the observed macroscopic fracture response.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Statistical analysis of HAADF-STEM images to determine the surface coverage and distribution of immobilized molecular complexes

The surface immobilization of molecular catalysts is attractive because it combines the benefits of homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysis. However, determining the surface coverage and distribution of a molecular catalyst on a solid support is often challenging, inhibiting our ability to design improved catalytic systems. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that the combination of scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) and image analysis of the individual positions of heavy atoms in transition metal complexes via a convolutional neural network (CNN) allows statistically robust determination of the surface coverage and distribution of immobilized molecular catalysts. These observations provide information about how changes in the functionalization conditions, attachment group, and structure of the molecular catalyst affect the surface coverage and distribution, providing insight into the chemical mechanism of surface immobilization. The method could be generally valuable for correlating the surface coverage and distribution to the activity, selectivity, and stability of a catalytic system.

HAADF-STEM↗

Reliable statistics-based detection and investigation of anomalies in a SMART valve system

Reliable anomaly detection and diagnosis are critical for the safe operation of complex engineered systems. This study presents a unified framework that integrates statistical, model-based, and data-driven techniques for anomaly detection and investigation, demonstrated on SMART valve systems in hybrid energy applications. Four detection methods—mean deviation, seasonal extreme studentized deviate, ARIMA forecasting, and matrix profiling—were implemented and compared. Matrix profiling was particularly effective in revealing subtle deviations and hidden relationships among variables. Anomaly investigation was performed by analyzing variable-level and grouped signal profiles, with system topology incorporated to distinguish primary faults from propagated effects. Grouping signals by type enhanced interpretability, enabling accurate localization of anomalies across multi-dimensional datasets. Experimental results confirmed the framework's capability to consistently detect and isolate anomalies while providing actionable insights into system interdependencies. The proposed methodology offers a robust, interpretable, and scalable solution for condition monitoring, with potential applications in safety-critical domains such as nuclear energy, aerospace, and process industries.

ARIMA models↗

Classification of events from α -induced reactions in the MUSIC detector via statistical and ML methods

The Multi-Sampling Ionization Chamber (MUSIC) detector is typically used to measure nuclear reaction cross sections relevant for nuclear astrophysics, fusion studies, and other applications. From the MUSIC data produced in one experiment scientists carefully extract an order of 10 3 events of interest from about 10 9 total events, where each event can be represented by an 18-dimensional vector. However, the standard data classification process is based on expert driven, manually intensive data analysis techniques that require several months to identify patterns and classify the relevant events from the collected data. Here, to address this issue, we present a method for the classification of events originating from specific α-induced reactions by combining statistical and machine learning methods that require significantly less input from the domain scientist, relative to the standard technique. Here, we applied the new method to two experimental data sets and compared our results with those obtained using traditional methods. With few exceptions, the number of events classified by our method agrees within ±20% with the results obtained using traditional methods. With the present method, which is the first of its kind for the MUSIC data, we have established the foundation for the automated extraction of physical events of interest from experiments using the MUSIC detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

High fidelity multiphysics tightly coupled model for a lead cooled fast reactor concept and application to statistical calculation of hot channel factors

A tightly coupled multiphysics code system is established using the MOOSE framework for hot channel factor (HCF) evaluation on a Lead Fast Reactor (LFR) concept. The coupled system is driven by the Griffin multiphysics coupling capability under which the MOOSE Heat Transfer module and NekRS computational fluid dynamics solver are coupled for conjugate heat transfer using the Cardinal application. The coupled capability is demonstrated on an LFR assembly model based on materials and geometry of a prototypical lead-cooled fast reactor design by Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC. Moreover, the work integrates the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Stochastic Tools Module (STM) to perform calculations for statistical analysis of HCF. Furthermore, the coupling strategy and workflow demonstrated in this paper is not only useful for predicting accurate hot channel factors for different kinds of advanced reactors but also for other engineering applications such as control rod worth assessment, generation of high-fidelity database for Artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) training, design optimization and multi-resolution modeling.

Cardinal↗

A Chemocatalytic Route to Stereoregular Poly(3-hydroxyhexanoate) and Its Statistical and Tri-Block Copolymers

Poly(3-hydroxyhexanoate) (P3HHx)-based poly(3- hydroxyalkanoate)s (PHAs) are biologically produced, commercially implemented PHAs, but little is known in the open literature about the structure and property characterizations of discrete, authentic homopolymer P3HHx, and its copolymers with poly(3- hydroxybutyrate) (P3HB). Here, we introduce a chemocatalytic route to stereoregular (both isotactic and syndiotactic) P3HHx and PHA copolymers with P3HB, including statistical copolymer P3HBHx with various levels of 3HHx incorporation and discrete hard−soft−hard triblock copolymer P3HB-b-P3HHx-b-P3HB, and present extensive characterizations of their structures, thermal properties, and mechanical performance. The synthesis is efficiently achieved by one-pot polymerization of eight-membered di(n-propyl) and dimethyl (for copolymerization) diolides catalyzed by chiral molecular catalysts. Notably, P3HBHx can be rapidly produced in quantitative yield and exhibits high molar mass (M n up to 551 kg/mol) as well as both high modulus (up to 1.39 GPa) and ductility (up to 445%), while P3HB-b-P3HHx-b-P3HB further extends application temperature windows by possessing a unique combination of low T g (−18 °C) and high T m (154 °C) values. These findings highlight the stereomicrostructural and architectural versatility of chemocatalytic routes to PHAs, which, in turn, can be utilized to largely tune the PHA thermal properties and mechanical performance.

Biopolymers↗

First-Principles Statistical Mechanics Study of Magnetic Fluctuations and Order–Disorder in the Spinel LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 Cathode

While significant magnetic interactions exist in lithium transition metal oxides, commonly used as Li-ion cathodes, the interplay between magnetic couplings, disorder, and redox processes remains poorly understood. In this work, we focus on the high-voltage spinel LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 (LNMO) cathode as a model system on which to apply a computational framework that uses first principles-based statistical mechanics methods to predict the finite temperature magnetic properties of materials and provide insights into the complex interplay between magnetic and chemical degrees of freedom. Density functional theory calculations on multiple distinct Ni–Mn orderings within the LNMO system, including the ordered ground-state structure (space group P4332), reveal a preference for a ferrimagnetic arrangement of the Ni and Mn sublattices due to strong antiferromagnetic superexchange interactions between neighboring Mn 4+ and Ni 2+ ions and ferromagnetic Mn–Mn and Ni–Ni couplings, as revealed by magnetic cluster expansions. These results are consistent with qualitative predictions using the Goodenough-Kanamori-Anderson rules. Simulations of the finite temperature magnetic properties of LNMO are conducted using Metropolis Monte Carlo. We find that a “semiclassical” Monte Carlo sampling method based on the Heisenberg Hamiltonian accurately predicts experimental magnetic transition temperatures observed in magnetometry measurements. This study highlights the importance of a robust computational toolkit that accurately captures the complex chemomagnetic interactions and predicts finite temperature magnetic behavior to help analyze experimental magnetic and magnetic resonance spectroscopy data acquired ex situ and operando.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Crystallization of Bottlebrush Statistical Copolymers of Polystyrene and Poly(ethylene oxide)

Here, bottlebrush statistical copolymers (BSCPs) with poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO) and polystyrene (PS) side chains grafted to a polynorbornene (PNB) backbone were synthesized by ring-opening metathesis polymerization (ROMP). The impact of the glassy PS side chains on the crystallization of the PEO side chains as a function of the backbone length, grafting densities, and fraction of the PS and PEO side chains is described. The bottlebrush architecture, where the side chains are anchored to the backbone, inherently constrains the mobility of PEO. Compared with the bulk crystallization temperature of PEO, the higher glass transition temperature of PS places further constraints on PEO crystallization. The limited mobility of PEO leads to cold crystallization behavior during heating. Reduced grafting densities, in turn, reduce side-chain crowding, leading to less extended pendant structures. The degree of crystallinity of PEO was found to decrease at lower grafting densities to a point where crystallization was not observed. The average distance between bottlebrush backbones increased linearly with the backbone length, suggesting that the backbone forms a distinct mesodomain. For BSCPs with asymmetric volume fractions of PS and PEO side chains, the degree of crystallinity of PEO increases with a change from cold crystallization to normal nucleation and growth during cooling, as a result of reduced constraints on PEO mobility by the glassy PS side chains.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Statistical Analysis of Intertube Tunneling Contacts in the Macroscopic Electrical Conductivity of Carbon Nanotube Fibers

Here, this study investigates the influence of tunneling contact resistances between carbon nanotubes (CNTs) on electron transport and electrical conductivity of macroscopic carbon nanofibers (CNFs), which profoundly impacts the performance of CNT thin film electronics, CNF electron emitters and cathodes, and energy conversion and storage devices. Utilizing a self-consistent electrical contact model coupling a transmission line model with tunneling current, we calculate the contact resistances of a plethora of CNT-CNT contacts within a CNF fiber, which consists of aligned, densely packed CNTs. A statistical analysis is conducted, using Gaussian distributions to account for variations in contact lengths, tunneling gap distances, and single CNT aspect ratios, to calculate the CNT-CNT contact resistance and the overall resistance of CNT fiber. By scaling our model to a macroscopic level, our results are in good agreement with experimental measurements. Our calculation suggests that while increasing the contact overlap length diminishes individual CNT-CNT contact resistance, it could paradoxically increase macroscopic CNT fiber resistance for a given constant CNF mass density, which is due to that fact that a larger overlap length allows more CNTs to pack along an electrical conduction path per unit length, leading to more tunneling contact junctions connected in series and thus less number of parallel conduction paths within the fiber cross section. Increasing tunneling gap distance increases both individual contact and overall fiber resistance. This research provides a simple design tool for tailoring CNT fiber electrical properties to promote real-world applications using CNTs or similar low-dimensional materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Counterintuitive Compatibilization of Poly(-Valerolactone) and Poly(L-Lactic Acid) by Statistical Copolymers toward Compostable and Recyclable Packaging

Poly(δ-valerolactone) (PVL) and poly(l-lactic acid) (PLLA) are bioderivable, compostable, and chemically recyclable plastics with synergistic properties for addressing plastic waste accumulation in receiving environments. Though recyclable-by-design polymers often fall short of competing with incumbent materials, blending affords a means to leverage individual component strengths toward ideal tunable properties. Polymer blends are often immiscible, but a range of methodologies are available to promote mixing. Here, we report on the compatibilization of 9 immiscible PVL and PLLA blends with three different compatibilization agents: thermoplastic starch, synthesized PVL-co-PLLA statistical copolymers (SCPs), and synthesized PVL-b-PLLA block-type copolymers. Resulting degrees of compatibilization are observed through scanning electron microscopy, corroborated by thermal and mechanical analyses monitoring performance as a function of microdomain size. Small-angle and wide-angle X-ray scattering experiments are conducted to observe the influence of compatibilizers on individual crystalline phases to further elucidate material behavior. Molecular dynamics simulations provide key insights into the interfacial interactions between homopolymers and compatibilizers. Finally, a suite of end-of-life avenues is established by biodegradation in industrial composting conditions, chemical recycling by deconstruction to hydroxymethyl esters, and direct chemical depolymerization to lactone precursors in mixed feed. Overall, we highlight several promising blends and the counterintuitive SCP compatibilization phenomenon toward high-performance, sustainable materials.

Compatibilization, copolymer compatibilizer, bio-b↗

Statistical Survey of Magnetic Flux Integral Quantities in Saturn's Magnetosphere

Magnetic flux integral quantities (e.g., flux tube entropy, flux tube content) are conserved quantities under the frozen-in assumption. The change of these quantities often indicates the violation of the frozen-in condition (e.g., interchange instability). In this study, we combine the Cassini CAPS and CHEMS moments data with a steady-state magnetic field model (i.e., the Caudal model) to estimate the flux tube mass and flux tube entropy in Saturn's magnetosphere. Our statistical survey found that the flux tube mass rapidly decreases with radial distance away from Saturn in the inner magnetosphere and roughly levels out in the middle magnetosphere. This indicates that the radial transport processes could occur via a double-reconnection process in the inner magnetosphere, while the radial transport processes appear to be more advective in the middle magnetosphere. Notice that Saturn's magnetosphere is stabilized by a radially increasing profile of flux tube entropy and destabilized by a radially decreasing profile of flux tube content. In this study, we also estimate the expected penetration location by using the flux tube interchange stability formalism developed by Southwood and Kivelson (1987, https://doi.org/10.1029/ja092ia01p00109). The results show that flux tube entropy can play a crucial role in braking the injections, while the flux tube content has a relatively smaller influence on the injected flux tube, being consistent with our previous case study by Wing et al. (2022, https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac85b2).

Ma, Xuanye [Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, ↗

Statistical analysis of displacement damage in small devices from neutron and ion irradiation

Modern semiconductor devices, such as gate-all-around nanosheet field-effect transistors (GAA NS FETs), are smaller than displacement damage cascades from fission neutrons. In this regime, device failure may occur through low-probability single events, rather than by parametric degradation previously seen in larger devices. Here, we present a statistical model that predicts the probability of a damage event in a small device and the probability distribution of the magnitude, i.e., number of displacements within the device, from each event. The model is developed first for neutron irradiation and then for energetic ion irradiation. The model is consistent with results from recent experiments in which lithium-ion irradiation produced stepwise increases in subthreshold current in GAA NS FETs.

Wampler, W. R.↗