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At least 109 records · Page 6

The influence of lower stratospheric forcing on the October Antarctic ozone decrease

A pattern correlation is found between the 30-mb zonal average ozone and temperature at 70 deg S during the October months and the 100-mb Eliassen-Palm (E-P) fluxes for the seven Septembers of 1979 to 1985, suggesting a dynamical influence on the long term trend of ozone and temperature values in the Southern Hemisphere for this period. For the August E-P fluxes and September values, this relationship is found to hold for temperature while not being strong for ozone. No explanation is found for the anomalously warm temperature values noted for both September and October 1982.

Nagatani, Ronald M.↗

Precision lower stratospheric temperature monitoring with the MSU - Technique, validation, and results 1979-1991

The stability of TIROS-N Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel 4, which monitors the deep-layer averaged temperature of the lower stratosphere, is tested by intercalibrating MSU channel 4 data from the NIROS-N series of NOAA satellites during 1979-1991. The monthly gridpoint anomalies are validated with 10 years of radiosonde data during 1979-1988. The results demonstrated that the satellite sensors are very stable in their calibration and that the previously reported uncertainties in the stratospheric temperature information produced by NOAA are not the result of calibration changes in the MSUs. It was found that the largest globally averaged temperature variations during 1979-1991 occur after the El Chichon (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) volcanic eruptions. These warm events are superimposed upon a net downward trend in temperatures during the period. The cooling trend is strongest in polar regions and the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes.

Spencer, Roy W.↗

Solar Spectral Irradiance and Climate

Spectrally resolved solar irradiance is recognized as being increasingly important to improving our understanding of the manner in which the Sun influences climate. There is strong empirical evidence linking total solar irradiance to surface temperature trends - even though the Sun has likely made only a small contribution to the last half-century's global temperature anomaly - but the amplitudes cannot be explained by direct solar heating alone. The wavelength and height dependence of solar radiation deposition, for example, ozone absorption in the stratosphere, absorption in the ocean mixed layer, and water vapor absorption in the lower troposphere, contribute to the "top-down" and "bottom-up" mechanisms that have been proposed as possible amplifiers of the solar signal. New observations and models of solar spectral irradiance are needed to study these processes and to quantify their impacts on climate. Some of the most recent observations of solar spectral variability from the mid-ultraviolet to the near-infrared have revealed some unexpected behavior that was not anticipated prior to their measurement, based on an understanding from model reconstructions. The atmospheric response to the observed spectral variability, as quantified in climate model simulations, have revealed similarly surprising and in some cases, conflicting results. This talk will provide an overview on the state of our understanding of the spectrally resolved solar irradiance, its variability over many time scales, potential climate impacts, and finally, a discussion on what is required for improving our understanding of Sun-climate connections, including a look forward to future observations.

Pilewskie, P.↗

The Effects of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in an AOGCM

Stratospheric ozone depletion has played a dominant role in driving Antarctic climate change in the last decades. In order to capture the stratospheric ozone forcing, many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) prescribe the Antarctic ozone hole using monthly and zonally averaged ozone field. However, the prescribed ozone hole has a high ozone bias and lacks zonal asymmetry. The impacts of these biases on model simulations, particularly on Southern Ocean and the Antarctic sea ice, are not well understood. The purpose of this study is to determine the effects of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change in an AOGCM. We compare two sets of ensemble simulations for the 1960-2010 period using different versions of the Goddard Earth Observing System 5 - AOGCM: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry, and the other with prescribed monthly and zonally averaged ozone and 6 other stratospheric radiative species calculated from the interactive chemistry simulations. Consistent with previous studies using prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, the interactive chemistry runs simulate a deeper Antarctic ozone hole and consistently larger changes in surface pressure and winds than the prescribed ozone runs. The use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean model in this study enables us to determine the impact of these surface changes on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic sea ice. The larger surface wind trends in the interactive chemistry case lead to larger Southern Ocean circulation trends with stronger changes in northerly and westerly surface flow near the Antarctica continent and stronger upwelling near 60S. Using interactive chemistry also simulates a larger decrease of sea ice concentrations. Our results highlight the importance of using interactive chemistry in order to correctly capture the influences of stratospheric ozone depletion on climate change over Antarctic and the Southern Ocean.

Antarctic climate change↗

Visible and near-ultraviolet spectroscopy at Thule AFB (76.5 N) from January 28 - February 15, 1988

Near-ultraviolet and visible spectrographs identical to those employed at McMurdo Station, Antarctica (77.8 S) during the austral spring seasons of 1986 and 1987 were used to study the stratosphere above Thule, Greenland (76.5 N) during early spring, 1988. Observations were carried out both at night using the direct moon as a light source, and during the day by collecting the scattered light from the zenith sky when solar zenith angles were less than about 94.5 degrees. Excellent meteorological conditions prevailed in the troposphere and stratosphere at Thule. Surface weather was extremely clear over most of the period, facilitating measurements of the direct light from the moon. The lower stratospheric arctic polar vortex was located very near Thule throughout the observing period, and temperature at the 30 mbar level were typically below -80 C above Thule, according to the National Meteorological Center daily analyses. Thus conditions were favorable for polar stratospheric cloud formation above Thule. Total column ozone abundances were about 350 to 400 Dobson units, and did not suggest a clear temporal trend over the observing period. Stratospheric nitrogen dioxide measurements were complicated by the presence of a large component of tropospheric pollution on many occasions. Stratospheric nitrogen dioxide could be identified on most days using the absorption in the scattered light from the zenith sky, which greatly enhances the stratospheric airmass while suppressing the tropospheric contribution. These measurements suggest that the total vertical column abundance of nitrogen dioxide present over Thule in February was extremely low, sometimes as low as 3 x 10 to the 14th per sq cm. The abundance of nitrogen dioxide increased systemically from about 3 x 10 to the 14th in late January to 1.0 x 10 to the 15th per sq cm in mid-February, perhaps because of photolysis of N2O5 in the upper part of the stratosphere, near 25 to 35 km.

Mount, G. H.↗

Variability of Water Vapor in the Tropical Middle Atmosphere Observed From Satellites and Interpreted Using SD-WACCM Simulations

Water vapor in the middle atmosphere plays an essential role in global warming, ozone depletion, and the formation of polar stratospheric and mesospheric clouds. We show that tropical middle atmospheric water vapor simulated with the specified-dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM) is consistent with changes observed in a merged satellite data set, which encompasses the period 1993–2020. Consistent with previous work, we find no significant trend in the stratosphere in either the observations or the simulation; in the mesosphere, we find a long-term trend of 0.1 ppmv per decade, but only in the observations. We also analyze an SD-WACCM simulation for the longer period 1980–2019 to quantify the contribution of various factors to the decadal variation of middle atmospheric water vapor. Over 1980–1995, the simulated water vapor in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, averaged zonally and over ±30° latitude, increases by 0.30 ppmv per decade due to increasing methane emissions. After 1995, a significant abrupt decrease of water vapor of 0.37 ppmv per decade and then a gradual increase of 0.33 ppmv per decade result from changes in stratospheric cold point temperature. The cold-point temperature is strongly influenced by the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation before about 2003 leads to a cooler tropical tropopause and a decrease of water vapor, and the deceleration thereafter leads to corresponding warming of the tropopause and an increase in water vapor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decadal Variability and Temperature Trends in the Middle Atmosphere From Historical Rocketsonde Data

Observational studies were performed using historical rocketsonde data to investigate long-term temperature trends, solar-cycle variations, and interactions between tropical and extratropical latitudes in the middle atmosphere. Evidence from tropical, subtropical, and midlatitude North American rocketsonde stations indicated a consistent downward trend over 25 years, with a solar cycle component superposed. The trend is about -1.4 to -2.0 K per decade and the amplitude of the decadal oscillation is about 1.1 K. Prior to trend derivation it was necessary for us to correct temperatures for aerodynamic heating in the early years. The empirically derived correction profile agrees well with a theoretical profile of Krumins and Lyons. A study was also performed of the correlation between equatorial winds and north polar temperatures in winter, showing that the entire stratospheric wind profile near the equator -- including the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratopause semiannual oscillation (SAO) -- is important to the extratropical flow, not merely the QBO component as previously thought. A strong correlation was discovered between winter polar temperatures and equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere during the preceding September, suggesting a role for the second cycle of the SAO.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗

Validation of the Radiometric Stability of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

It has been widely accepted that an infrared sounder in low polar orbit is capable of producing climate quality data, if the spectral brightness temperatures have instrumental trends of less than 10 mK/yr. Achieving measurement stability at this level is not only very demanding of the design of the instrument, it is also pushes the state of art of measuring on orbit what stability is actually achieved. We discuss this using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) L1B data collected between 2002 and 2011. We compare the L1B brightness temperature observed in cloud filtered night tropical ocean spectra (obs) to the brightness temperature calculated based on the known surface emissivity, temperature and water vapor profiles from the ECMWF ReAnalysis (ERA) and the growth rates of CO2, N2O and Ozone. The trend in (obs-calc) is a powerful tool for the evaluation of the stability of the 2378 AIRS channels. We divided the channels into seven classes: All channels which sound in the stratosphere (at pressure levels below 150 hPa), 14 micron CO2 sounding, 4 micron CO2 P-branch sounding, 4 micron CO2 R-branch sounding, water vapor sounding, shortwave surface sounding and longwave surface sounding. The peak in the weighting function at 1050 hPa separates sounding and surface channels. The boundary between shortwave and longwave is 5 microns. Except for the stratosphere sounding channels, the remaining six groups have (obs-calc) trends of less than 20 mK/yr. The longwave surface channels have trends of 2 mK/yr, significantly less than the 8 mK/yr trend seem in the shortwave window channels. Based on the design of the instrument, trends within a group of channels should be the same. While the longwave and shortwave trends are less than the canonical 10 mK/yr, the larger trend in the shortwave channels could be an artifact of using the pre-launch determined calibration coefficients. This is currently under evaluation. The trend in (obs-calc) for the non-surface sounding channels, in particular for stratosphere sounding and upper tropospheric water channels, is dominated by artifacts created in calc, most likely due to changes in the ERA Ozone and water vapor. Based on this argument the best estimate of the trend for the channels within a channel group is given by the surface sensitive channels within the group. Based on this consideration we estimated the trend of all AIRS longwave channels as 2 mK/yr, while the shortwave channels have a trend of 8 mK/yr.

CO2↗

Responses in the Subpolar North Atlantic in Two Climate Model Sensitivity Experiments with Increased Stratospheric Aerosols

Abstract The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) shows contrasting responses in two sensitivity experiments with increased stratospheric aerosols, offering insight into the physical processes that may impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a warmer climate. In one, the upper ocean becomes warm and salty, but in the other it becomes cold and fresh. The changes are accompanied by diverging AMOC responses. The first experiment strengthens the AMOC, opposing the weakening trend in the reference simulation. The second experiment shows a much smaller impact. Both simulations use the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model component (CESM-WACCM) but differ in model versions and stratospheric aerosol specifications. Despite both experiments using similar approaches to increase stratospheric aerosols to counteract the rising global temperature, the contrasting SPNA and AMOC responses indicate a considerable dependency on model physics, climate states, and model responses to forcings. This study focuses on examining the physical processes involved with the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the SPNA salinity changes and their potential connections with the AMOC and the Arctic. We find that in both cases, increased stratospheric aerosols act to enhance the SPNA upper-ocean salinity by reducing freshwater export from the Arctic, which is closely tied to the Arctic sea ice changes. The impact on AMOC is primarily through the thermal component of the surface buoyancy fluxes, with negligible contributions from the freshwater component. These experiments shed light on the physical processes that dictate the important connections between the SPNA, the Arctic, the AMOC, and their subsequent feedbacks on the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discrimination of a major stratospheric warming event in February-March 1984 from earlier minor warmings

As part of its responsibility for stratospheric monitoring, the Climate Analysis Center derives time trends of various dynamic parameters from NMC stratospheric analyses. Selected figures from this stratospheric monitoring data base are published in Climate Diagnostics Bulletin in March and October, after each hemispheric winter. During the Northern Hemisphere winter of December 1983-February 1984 several warming events may be seen in the plot of 60 deg. N zonal mean temperatures for 10 mb. Minor warmings may be noted in early December, late December, mid January and early February. A major warming with the 60 deg. N zonal mean temperatures reaching -40C is observed in late February, associated with a circulation reversal. In all of the minor warming episodes, there is a polarward movement of the Aleutian anticyclone; however, at 10 mb the North Pole remains in the cyclonic circulation of the stratospheric vortex which is not displaced far from its usual position. In the case of the later February major warming, the 10 mb circulation pattern over the North Pole is anticyclonic, and the cyclonic circulation has moved to the south and east with a considerable elongation. Cross sections of heat transport and momentum transport are not dramatically different for the minor and major warming episodes.

Johnson, K. W.↗

On the interannual variability of the middle atmosphere during winter

Reference atmospheres such as the new CIRA (COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere), which will be based on global satellite data form a very useful basis for climatological studies. When using such climatologies it is important to be aware of the interannual variability which in the middle atmosphere is particularly large during the northern winters and southern springs. For a comparison of the two polar regions, the monthly mean temperature data for 90 deg N and 90 deg S are shown in the form of frequency distributions. The main features to be noted are: (1) in the middle stratosphere the variability during the northern midwinters is much larger than during the southern midwinters due to the major midwinter warmings which take place only during the northern winters (the largest variations over Antarctics are observed during late spring, i.e., October and November when very intense final warmings bring about the transition into summer); (2) the variability in the middle stratosphere is very small in summer when the planetary waves of the troposphere cannot propagate upwards into the stratosphere due to the prevailing easterly winds (this is true for both polar regions); and (3) the annual temperature range is larger over the South Pole, because winters are colder and summers warmer than over the North Pole. In addition, the Canadian, midwinter, and final warmings occurring during northern winters are characterized and the recent cooling trend in the arctic is discussed.

Labitzke, K.↗

Seasonal to Decadal Variations of Water Vapor in the Tropical Lower Stratosphere Observed with Balloon-Borne Cryogenic Frost Point Hygrometers

We investigated water vapor variations in the tropical lower stratosphere on seasonal, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and decadal time scales using balloon-borne cryogenic frost point hygrometer data taken between 1993 and 2009 during various campaigns including the Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment (March 1993), campaigns once or twice annually during the Soundings of Ozone and Water in the Equatorial Region (SOWER) project in the eastern Pacific (1998-2003) and in the western Pacific and Southeast Asia (2001-2009), and the Ticosonde campaigns and regular sounding at Costa Rica (2005-2009). Quasi-regular sounding data taken at Costa Rica clearly show the tape recorder signal. The observed ascent rates agree well with the ones from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) satellite sensor. Average profiles from the recent five SOWER campaigns in the equatorial western, Pacific in northern winter and from the three Ticosonde campaigns at Costa Rica (10degN) in northern summer clearly show two effects of the QBO. One is the vertical displacement of water vapor profiles associated with the QBO meridional circulation anomalies, and the other is the concentration variations associated with the QBO tropopause temperature variations. Time series of cryogenic frost point hygrometer data averaged in a lower stratospheric layer together with HALOE and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder data show the existence of decadal variations: The mixing ratios were higher and increasing in the 1990s, lower in the early 2000s, and probably slightly higher again or recovering after 2004. Thus linear trend analysis is not appropriate to investigate the behavior of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor.

Fujiwara, M.↗

Evolution of the Stratospheric Temperature and Chemical Composition over One Titanian Year

Since the Voyager 1 (V1) flyby in 1980, Titans exploration from space and the ground has been ongoing for more than a full revolution of Saturn around the Sun (one Titan year or 29.5 Earth years was completed in May 2010). In this study we search for temporal variations affecting Titans atmospheric thermal and chemical structure within that year. We process Cassini CIRS data taken during the Titan flybys from 2006-2013 and compare them to the 1980 V1IRIS spectra (re-analyzed here). We also consider data from Earth-based and -orbiting observatories (such as from the ISO, re-visited). When we compare the CIRS 2010 and the IRIS data we find limited inter-annual variations, below the 25 or35 levels for the lower and middle, or the high latitudes, respectively. A return to the 1980 stratospheric temperatures and abundances is generally achieved from 50degN to 50degS, indicative of the solar radiation being the dominating energy source at 10 AU, as for the Earth, as predicted by GCM and photochemical models. However, some exceptions exist among the most complex hydrocarbons (C4H2 and C3H4), especially in the North. In the Southern latitudes, since 2012, we see a trend for an increase of several trace gases, possibly indicative of a seasonal atmospheric reversal. At the Northern latitudes we found enhanced abundances around the period of the northern spring equinox in mid-2009 (as in Bampasidis et al. 2012), which subsequently decreased (from 2010-2012) returning to values similar to those found in the V1 epoch a Titanian year before.

radiative transfer↗

Reference model for CH4 and N2O and trends

Data from the Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder on Nimbus 7 were used as the basis for a model of the abundances of nitrous oxide and methane in the stratosphere. A version of this was produced two years ago (Taylor, Dudhia, and Rodgers - hereafter called the original paper) and in this new paper some of the possible error sources and long term trends are considered in more detail. The principle source of error in the SAMS retrievals is thought to be the use of climatological ozone profiles to invert the temperature profile data. However, it was found that the effect is too small, and of the opposite sign, to explain the discrepancies between satellite and in situ measurements, noted in the original paper. As expected, no systematic trends which exceed the estimated error in the data are found in either methane or nitrous oxide.

Taylor, F. W.↗

SAGE III capabilities and global change

The science objectives of the satellite-borne SAGE III are presented as they pertain to detecting global change. SAGE III is the proposed follow on and improved version of SAM II, SAGE I and SAGE II which have measured stratospheric and, in some cases, tropospheric species since late 1978. Specifically, SAGE III will measure profiles of aerosols, ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide and trioxide, neutral density, temperature, clouds, and chlorine dioxide using the solar and lunar occultation techniques. These techniques are inherently self-calibrating, provide high vertical resolution, and use well-behaved data retrievals making them ideal for trend detection and global change studies. The potential capabilities of SAGE III are illustrated by using data and results from SAM II, SAGE I and SAGE II.

Mccormick, M. Patrick↗

Quantitative characterization of the Antarctic ozone hole

The long-term evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole is studied based on the TOMS data and the JMA data-set of stratospheric temperature in relation with the possible role of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC's). The effective mass of depleted ozone in the ozone hole at its annual mature stage reached a historical maximum of 55 Mt in 1991, 4.3 times larger than in 1981. The ozone depletion rate during 30 days before the mature ozone hole does not show any appreciable long-term trend but the interannual fluctuations do, ranging from 0.169 to 0.689 Mt/day with the average of 0.419 Mt/day for the period of 1979 - 1991. The depleted ozone mass has the highest correlation with the region below 195 K on the 30 mb surface in June, whereas the ozone depletion rate correlates most strongly with that in August. The present result strongly suggests that the long-term evolution of the mature ozone hole is caused both by the interannual change of the latitudinal coverage of the early PSC's, which may control the latitude and date of initiation of ozone decrease, and by that of the spatial coverage of the mature PSC's which may control the ozone depletion rate in the Antarctic spring.

Ito, T.↗

Long-term ozone and temperature correlations above SANAE, Antarctica

A significant decline in Antarctic total column ozone and upper air temperatures has been observed in recent years. Furthermore, high correlations between monthly mean values of ozone and stratospheric temperature have been measured above Syowa, Antarctica. For the observations reported here, data from TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite have been used to examine the 1980 to 1990 decrease in total column ozone above the South African Antarctic base of SANAE (70 deg 18 min S, 2 deg 21 min W). The cooling of the Antarctic stratosphere above SANAE during this period has been investigated by examining upper air temperatures at the 150, 100, 70, 50, and 30 hPa levels obtained from daily radiosonde balloon launches. Furthermore, these two data sets have been used to examine long-term, medium-term, and short-term correlations between total column ozone and the temperatures at each of the five levels. The trend in SANAE total column ozone has been found to be -4.9 DU/year, while upper air temperatures have been found to decrease at around 0.3 C/year. An analysis of monthly average SANAE total column ozone has shown the decrease to be most severe during the month of September with a trend of -7.7 DU/year. A strong correlation (r(exp 2) = 0.92) has been found between yearly average total column ozone and temperature at the 100 hPa level. Daily ozone and temperature correlations show high values from September to November, at a time when the polar vortex is breaking down.

Bodeker, Gregory E.↗

Stratospheric ozone and temperature perturbations - An examination of synergistic effects

Experiments have been carried out to investigate the time-dependent effects of combined releases of CO2 and chlorofluoromethanes (CFM) on stratospheric ozone and temperature. The analysis also examines the effects of steady-state variations in CFM, CO2, and solar UV flux levels on surface temperature and latitudinal temperature distribution. Results indicate that ozone depletion, due to combined effects of CO2 and CFM increases, may show a local maximum of about 6% at about the time CO2 doubles (approximately 60 yr from now). After that, the downward trend in ozone due to Cl(x) catalytic destruction is reestablished and continues, reaching approximately 15% depletion. At steady state, compensation due to CO2 increases is approximately 1% for two to four times the ambient CO2 levels.

Callis, L. B.↗