Observation of Sea Ice Surface Thermal States Under Cloud Cover
Clouds interfere with the distribution of short-wave and long-wave radiations over sea ice, and thereby strongly affect the surface energy balance in polar regions.
Sea↗
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Analysis of Experimental Ice Accretion Data and Assessment of a Thermodynamic Model During Ice Crystal Icing
This paper evaluates a thermodynamic ice crystal icing model that has been previously presented to describe the possible mechanisms of icing within the core of a turbofan jet engine. The model functions between two distinct ice accretions based on a surface energy balance: freeze-dominated icing and melt-dominated icing. Freeze-dominated icing occurs when liquid water (from melted ice crystals) freezes and accretes on a surface along with the existing ice of the impinging water and ice mass. This freeze-dominated icing is characterized as having strong adhesion to the surface. The amount of ice accretion is partially dictated by a freeze fraction, which is the fraction of impinging liquid water that freezes. Melt-dominated icing occurs as unmelted ice on a surface accumulates. This melt-dominated icing is characterized by weakly bonded surface adhesion. The amount of ice accumulation is partially dictated by a melt fraction, which is the fraction of impinging ice crystals that melts. Experimentally observed ice growth rates suggest that only a small fraction of the impinging ice remains on the surface, implying a mass loss mechanism such as splash, runback, bounce, or erosion. The fraction of mass loss must be determined in conjunction with the fraction of freezing liquid water or fraction of melting ice on an icing surface for a given ice growth rate. This mass loss parameter, however, along with the freeze fraction and melt fraction, are the only experimental parameters that are currently not measured directly. Using icing growth rates from ice crystal icing experiments, a methodology that has been previously proposed is used to determine these unknown parameters. This work takes ice accretion data from tests conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) at the Glenn Research Center in 2018 that examined the fundamental physics of ice crystal icing. This paper continues evaluation of the thermodynamic model from a previous effort, with additions to the model that account for sub-freezing temperatures that have been observed at the leading edge of the airfoil during icing. The predicted temperatures were generally in good agreement with measured temperatures. Other key findings include the total wet-bulb temperature being a good first order indicator of whether icing is freeze-dominated (sub-freezing values) or melt-dominated (above freezing). Maximum sticking efficiency values, the fraction of impinging mass that adheres to a surface, was calculated to be about 0.2, and retained this maximum value for a range of melt ratios (0.3 to 0.65 and possibly higher), which is defined as the ratio of liquid water content to total water content. Higher air velocities reduced the maximum sticking efficiency and shifted the icing regime to higher melt ratio values. Finally, the leading edge ice accretion angle was found to be related to ice growth (lower growth rates for smaller angles) and melt ratio (smaller melt ratios resulted in smaller angles, likely due to erosion effects).
Ice-Crystal Icing↗
Evaluation of a Thermodynamic Ice Crystal Icing Model Using Experimental Ice Accretion Data
This paper presents the evaluation of a thermodynamic ice crystal icing model, previously presented to describe the possible mechanisms of icing within the core of a turbofan jet engine. It has been proposed that there are two types of distinct ice accretions based on a surface energy balance: freeze-dominated icing and melt-dominated icing. In the former, ice accretion occurs where a freeze fraction (0 to 1) of melted ice crystals freezes on a surface, along with the existing ice of the impinging water and ice mass. This freeze-dominated icing is characterized by having strong adhesion to the surface. In the latter, icing occurs from accumulated unmelted ice on a surface, where a melt fraction (0 to 1) dictates the amount of unmelted impinged ice. This melt-dominated icing is characterized by weakly bonded surface adhesion. The experimentally observed ice growth rates suggest that only a small fraction of the impinging ice remains on the surface, implying a mass loss mechanism such as splash, runback, bounce, or erosion. This mass loss parameter must be determined in conjunction with the fraction of freezing liquid water or fraction of melting ice on an icing surface. This loss parameter, however, along with the freeze and melt fraction, are the only experimental parameters that are currently not measured directly. Using reported icing growth rates from published ice crystal icing experiments, a methodology is proposed to determine these unknown parameters. This work takes reported ice accretion data from tests conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in 2016 and tests NASA collaborated on with the National Research Council (NRC) of Canada in 2012 that examined the fundamental physics of ice crystal icing. Those research efforts sought to generate icing conditions representative of those that occur inside a jet engine when ingesting ice crystals. This paper presents the fundamental equations of the thermodynamic model, the methodology used to determine the aforementioned unknown icing parameters, and results from model evaluation using experimental data. In addition, this paper builds on the previously proposed model by adding a transient conduction term to explain ice growth behavior at the onset of experimental tests that was observed to be different from steady-state ice growth that occurred later in the test run.With the addition of this energy term, this becomes a quasi-steady model. A key finding from this work suggests that mass loss fractions can exceed 0.90 for steady ice growth periods. In addition, due to conductive heat fluxes when using a warmer-than-freezing airfoil, lower mass loss fraction values were calculated during the initial transient period.
Ice-Crystal Ice Accretion↗
Interannual Variability of the Tropical Energy Balance: Reconciling Observations and Models
Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over the tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-11 effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean heat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability than do the satellite precipitation observations.
Robertson, Franklin R.↗
Observation of Sea Ice Surface Thermal States Under Cloud Cover
Clouds interfere with the distribution of short-wave and long-wave radiations over sea ice, and thereby strongly affect the surface energy balance in polar regions. To evaluate the overall effects of clouds on climatic feedback processes in the atmosphere-ice-ocean system, the challenge is to observe sea ice surface thermal states under both clear sky and cloudy conditions. From laboratory experiments, we show that C-band radar (transparent to clouds) backscatter is very sensitive to the surface temperature of first-year sea ice. The effect of sea ice surface temperature on the magnitude of backscatter change depends on the thermal regimes of sea ice thermodynamic states. For the temperature range above the mirabilite (Na2SO4.10H20) crystallization point (-8.2 C), C-band data show sea ice backscatter changes by 8-10 dB for incident angles from 20 to 35 deg at both horizontal and vertical polarizations. For temperatures below the mirabilite point but above the crystallization point of MgCl2.8H2O (-18.0 C), relatively strong backwater changes between 4-6 dB are observed. These backscatter changes correspond to approximately 8 C change in temperature for both cases. The backscattering mechanism is related to the temperature which determines the thermodynamic distribution of brine volume in the sea ice surface layer. The backscatter is positively correlated to temperature and the process is reversible with thermodynamic variations such as diurnal insolation effects. From two different dates in May 1993 with clear and overcast conditions determined by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), concurrent Earth Resources Satellite 1 (ERS-1) C-band ice observed with increases in backscatter over first-year sea ice, and verified by increases in in-situ sea ice surface temperatures measured at the Collaborative-Interdisciplinary Cryosphere Experiment (C-ICE) site.
Nghiem, S. V.↗
Validation and Sensitivity Analyses of Arc-Jet Performance of Woven Thermal Protection Entry Systems
A material response model is developed for the determination of erosion rates and thermal response of woven materials to enable accurate thermal protection material sizing and future missions to Venus and giant planets. The stagnation-point thermal response is further evaluated using a Monte Carlo global sensitivity analysis to determine the interactions between key parameters in the material surface energy balance, such as, convective blowing correction parameter and weave material properties including isotropic and orthotropic thermal conductivites. The time-accurate material response for the dual layer weave erosion and surface temperatures show excellent agreement with stagnation flat face arc-jet tests involving time-varying aeroheating-cooling cycles. The high-fidelity Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis technique was used to address challenges in thermal protection sizing for the Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT) system, a low ballistic coefficient hypersonic decelerator. The results represent new correlations for such weaves involving Carbon-air oxidation equilibrium chemistry. Through the multi-variate regression analyses and uncertainty rankings performed, only three properties were found to contribute to the transient thermal response of the gore, with emissivity contributing to nearly 95% of the total output uncertainty.
Pratibha Raghunandan↗
Validation and Sensitivity Analyses of Arc-Jet Performance of Woven Thermal Protection Entry Systems
A material response model is developed for the determination of erosion rates and thermal response of woven materials to enable accurate thermal protection material sizing and future missions to Venus and giant planets. The stagnation-point thermal response is further evaluated using a Monte Carlo global sensitivity analysis to determine the interactions between key parameters in the material surface energy balance, such as, convective blowing correction parameter and weave material properties including isotropic and orthotropic thermal conductivites. The time-accurate material response for the dual layer weave erosion and surface temperatures show excellent agreement with stagnation flat face arc-jet tests involving time-varying aeroheating-cooling cycles. The high-fidelity Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis technique was used to address challenges in thermal protection sizing for the Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT) system, a low ballistic coefficient hypersonic decelerator. The results represent new correlations for such weaves involving Carbon-air oxidation equilibrium chemistry. Through the multi-variate regression analyses and uncertainty rankings performed, only three properties were found to contribute to the transient thermal response of the gore, with emissivity contributing to nearly 95% of the total output uncertainty.
Pratibha Raghunandan↗
Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?
Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first-order Taylor series analysis of wind speed, SST, near-surface stability and relative humidity variations around climatology to gauge the importance of these components. We find that the MERRA-2 evaporation record is strongly influenced by the availability of wind speed and humidity from passive microwave imagers beginning in the late 1980s as well as by the SST record. The trend over the period 1980 to present is nearly 10%. AMIP or the ERA-20C trends are much smaller. We find that ENSO-related signals involving both wind speed and thermodynamic variability remain the primary signal in the latter and are confirmed by satellite retrievals. We present uncertainty estimates based on the various data sources and discuss the implications for GEWEX water and energy budget science challenges.
Robertson, Franklin R.↗
Evaluation of Spaceborne L-band Radiometer Measurements for Terrestrial Freeze/Thaw Retrievals in Canada
The landscape freeze/thaw (FT) state has an important impact on the surface energy balance, carbon fluxes, and hydrologic processes; the timing of spring melt is linked to active layer dynamics in permafrost areas. L-band (1.4 GHz) microwave emission could allow the monitoring of surface state dynamics due to its sensitivity to the pronounced permittivity difference between frozen and thawed soil. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of both Aquarius and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) L-band passive microwave measurements using a polarization ratio-based algorithm for landscape FT monitoring. Weekly L-band satellite observations are compared with a large set of reference data at 48 sites across Canada spanning three environments: tundra, boreal forest, and prairies. The reference data include in situ measurements of soil temperature (Tsoil) and air temperature (Tair), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) and snow cover area (SCA) products. Results show generally good agreement between Lband FT detection and the surface state estimated from four reference datasets. The best apparent accuracies for all seasons are obtained using Tair as the reference. Aquarius radiometer 2 (incidence angle of 39.6) data gives the best accuracies (90.8), while for SMOS the best results (87.8 of accuracy) are obtained at higher incidence angles (55- 60). The FT algorithm identifies both freeze onset and end with a delay of about one week in tundra and two weeks in forest and prairies, when compared to Tair. The analysis shows a stronger FT signal at tundra sites due to the typically clean transitions between consistently frozen and thawed conditions (and vice versa) and the absence of surface vegetation. Results in the prairies were poorer because of the influence of vegetation growth in summer (which decreases the polarization ratio) and the high frequency of ephemeral thaw events during winter. Freeze onset and end maps created from the same algorithm applied to SMOS and Aquarius measurements characterize similar FT patterns over Canada. This study shows the potential of using L-band spaceborne observations for FT monitoring, but underlines some limitations due to ice crusts in the snowpack, liquid water content in snow cover during the spring freeze to thaw transition, and vegetation growth.
soil freeze/thaw↗
Urban and regional land use analysis: CARETS and Census Cities experiment package
The author has identified the following significant results. The arrival of the so-called energy crisis makes the portion of this experiment dealing with land use climatology of more immediate significance than before, since in addition to helping to understand the processes of climatic change associated with urbanization, the knowledge obtained may be useful in assigning an energy balance impact factor to proposed changes in land use in and around cities. Thermal maps derived from S-192 data are to be used as a measure of the energy being radiated into space from the mosaic of different surfaces in and around the city. While presenting excellent spatial sampling potential for a metropolitan area tests site, the Skylab data permit a very poor temporal sampling opportunity, owing to the large number of factors beyond the investigator's control that determine when data will be taken over a given test site. The strategy is to augment the thermal maps derived from S-192 with a modeling technique which enables the simulation of a number of components of the surface energy balance, calculated at regular time intervals throughout the day or year. Preliminary tests on the performance of the model are still underway, using airborne MSS data from NASA aircraft flights. Results look extremely promising.
Alexander, R. H.↗
The Darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Trends, Drivers and Projections (1981-2100)
The surface energy balance and meltwater production of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are modulated by snow and ice albedo through the amount of absorbed solar radiation. Here we show, using space-borne multispectral data collected during the 3 decades from 1981 to 2012, that summertime surface albedo over the GrIS decreased at a statistically significant (99 %) rate of 0.02 decade(sup -1) between 1996 and 2012. Over the same period, albedo modelled by the Modele Atmospherique Regionale (MAR) also shows a decrease, though at a lower rate (approximately -0.01 decade(sup -1)) than that obtained from space-borne data. We suggest that the discrepancy between modelled and measured albedo trends can be explained by the absence in the model of processes associated with the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The negative trend in observed albedo is confined to the regions of the GrIS that undergo melting in summer, with the dry snow zone showing no trend. The period 1981-1996 also showed no statistically significant trend over the whole GrIS. Analysis of MAR outputs indicates that the observed albedo decrease is attributable to the combined effects of increased near-surface air temperatures, which enhanced melt and promoted growth in snow grain size and the expansion of bare ice areas, and to trends in light-absorbing impurities (LAI) on the snow and ice surfaces. Neither aerosol models nor in situ and remote sensing observations indicate increasing trends in LAI in the atmosphere over Greenland. Similarly, an analysis of the number of fires and BC emissions from fires points to the absence of trends for such quantities. This suggests that the apparent increase of LAI in snow and ice might be related to the exposure of a "dark band" of dirty ice and to increased consolidation of LAI at the surface with melt, not to increased aerosol deposition. Albedo projections through to the end of the century under different warming scenarios consistently point to continued darkening, with albedo anomalies averaged over the whole ice sheet lower by 0.08 in 2100 than in 2000, driven solely by a warming climate. Future darkening is likely underestimated because of known underestimates in modelled melting (as seen in hindcasts) and because the model albedo scheme does not currently include the effects of LAI, which have a positive feedback on albedo decline through increased melting, grain growth, and darkening.
surface energy↗
Participation in the GISS EOS Proposal
To model the mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets, Research Assistant Veronique Bugnion developed a snowpack model which embodies a physically based approach to modeling the temperature and density distribution of a snow, firn, and ice mixture. The snowpack model performed satisfactorily in capturing the surface energy balance and melt amounts measured at stations in Greenland and Antarctica. Also a comparison between the predicted extent of the wet snow zone obtained with the model and the same quantity derived from satellite microwave measurements showed excellent agreement. In addition the model's simulated total runoff was close to the best estimates from observations for the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Ms. Bugnion and research scientist Andrei Sokolov coupled the snowpack model to the climate submodel of MIT's Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and integrated forward over the 21st century for a range of climate change scenarios, using forcings from simulations with the IGSM. The changes in mass balance of the ice caps were then translated into changes in sea level. For the scenarios with small to moderate warming, the runoff from Greenland and Antarctica is minimal. For the scenarios with a larger warming, there is a net increase in sea-level of 2-3 cm from Greenland, and a decrease of between 2 and 5 cm from Antarctica. These results show that the net change in sea level which can be expected to follow climatic changes in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, a decrease of 2 to 4 cm or less by the end of the 21st century, is smaller than most previously published estimates.
Stone, Peter H.↗
Generation of liquid water on Mars through the melting of a dusty snowpack
An optical/thermal model for dusty snowpacks at temperate Martian latitudes is used to investigate the possibility of valley network formation by liquid water that was provided by snowmelts, assuming insolation absorption under clear-sky conditions. The mean-annual surface temperatures for snow and the atmospheric exchange terms of the surface energy balance are constrained by global climate model results. Under favorable conditions, liquid water is generated at atmospheric pressures as low as 30-100 mbar, provided that the substrate is composed of regolith; this condition is in keeping with the cratered terrain expected in an ancient Martian surface.
Clow, Gary D.↗
Measurements of surface energy budgets in the rocky mountains of Colorado
The surface energy balance of a mountain valley and a mountain peak were continuously monitored for periods of 126 and 34 days, respectively. The data yielded temporally resolved, high-quality measurements of the radiative, soil, and total atmospheric turbulent heat fluxes. Comparative data for the two sites reveal the effects of terrain setting and surface cover in modulating the heat balance. A procedure is suggested for accommodating local advective affects due to variable terrain and surface cover to allow partitioning of the total turbulent flux into values for sensible and latent heat. This procedure relies on a stability-dependent coefficient of turbulent transfer which is locally calibrated to systematically minimize advection-related errors. Scaling functions for the transfer coeffient are based on the effective blackbody temperature of the surface. Consequently, the procedure offers an opportunity for developing reliable bulk representations of heat transfer at the surface for use with remote sensing data and with models of the soil and surface cover in complex terrain.
Sheaffer, John D.↗
A one-dimensional modeling study of carbonaceous haze effects on the springtime Arctic environment
The effect of carbonaceous Arctic haze on the surface energy balance was investigated using a specially developed one-dimensional three-component numerical model which accounts for the transfer of IR and solar radiation through the atmosphere, turbulent mixing within the boundary layer, and heat conduction through snow-capped sea ice. The results of calculations indicate that, when haze is present, the surface temperature increases, provided the relative humidity through the column does not change. The increase is due to an increase in the absorbed radiation at the surface.
Emery, Christopher A.↗
Applications of Skylab data to land use and climatological analysis
The author has identified the following significant results. Skylab study in Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site encompassed two separate but related tasks: (1) evaluation of photographic sensors S190A and B as sources of land use data for planning and managing land resources in major metropolitan regions, and (2) evaluation of the multispectral scanner S192 used in conjunction with associated data and analytical techniques as a data source on urban climates and the surface energy balance. Photographs from the Skylab S190B earth terrain camera were of greatest interest in the land use analysis task; they were of sufficiently high resolution to identify and map many level 2 and 3 land use categories. After being corrected to allow for atmosphere effects, output from thermal and visible bands of the S192 was employed in constructing computer map plots of albedo and surface temperature.
Alexander, R. H.↗
Assessment of a One-Dimensional Finite Element Charring Ablation Material Response Model for Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator
In this study, mathematical formulations to model charring ablation problems were numerically implemented using finite element analysis (FEA) with ABAQUS, which account for the material decomposition and progressive surface removal in the heat conduction and the surface energy balance equations. FEA was performed for a one-dimensional model to predict the temperature and ablation histories of a phenolic-impregnated carbon ablator sample (i.e., a common heat shield material for hypersonic vehicles and spacecraft) subjected to oxy-acetylene torch flame (i.e., 0.8 SLPM acetylene gas to 2.7 SLPM oxygen gas). The recovery enthalpy and convective heat transfer coefficient for the ablation model were calculated based on gas compositions and two assumed surface conditions (i.e., equilibrium and frozen). Simulations using the calculated recovery enthalpy and convective heat transfer coefficient resulted in a recession rate of 6.38 times (equilibrium) and 14.08 times (frozen) higher than the experimental data, despite fair agreement of the surface temperature. In addition, the effect of the heat transfer coefficient was investigated through a steady-state ablation analysis. The results of the analysis indicate that there is not one single value for the heat transfer coefficient that would allow the prediction to match both measured recession rate and surface temperature. Possible reasons for such an inconsistency are provided and discussed.
Thermal Protection System↗
Quasi-periodic atmosphere-regolith-cap CO2 redistribution in the martian past
Our earlier Mars regolith-atmosphere-cap CO2 distribution model (Fanale et al., 1982, Icarus 50, 381-407) has been improved, revised, and extended back over Mars' mid to late history. The present model takes into account four new factors: (1) a more realistic long-term obliquity cycle, (2) thermal conduction as it affects the surface energy balance, (3) the changing solar constant, and (4) atmospheric erosion 3.5 byr ago to the present. Solar insolation and temperatures are computed for the full range of obliquities, latitudes, and epochs, and a CO2 adsorption relation is used, together with a conservation of mass constraint, to calculate atmospheric pressures and exchangeable CO2 mass as functions of obliquity and epoch for the regolith, atmosphere, and polar caps for two assumed thicknesses of a basalt regolith. It is found that the heat conduction term in the surface boundary condition has an important effect in reducing the range of atmospheric pressures over the obliquity cycle at all epochs.
Fanale, Fraser P.↗