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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The Hubble Space Telescope's Near-UV and Optical Transmission Spectrum of Earth as an Exoplanet

We observed the 2019 January total lunar eclipse with the Hubble Space Telescope’s STIS spectrograph to obtain the first near-UV (1700–3200 Å) observation of Earth as a transiting exoplanet. The observatories and instruments that will be able to perform transmission spectroscopy of exo-Earths are beginning to be planned, and characterizing the transmission spectrum of Earth is vital to ensuring that key spectral features (e.g., ozone, or O{sub 3}) are appropriately captured in mission concept studies. O{sub 3} is photochemically produced from O{sub 2}, a product of the dominant metabolism on Earth today, and it will be sought in future observations as critical evidence for life on exoplanets. Ground-based observations of lunar eclipses have provided the Earth’s transmission spectrum at optical and near-IR wavelengths, but the strongest O{sub 3} signatures are in the near-UV. We describe the observations and methods used to extract a transmission spectrum from Hubble lunar eclipse spectra, and identify spectral features of O{sub 3} and Rayleigh scattering in the 3000–5500 Å region in Earth’s transmission spectrum by comparing to Earth models that include refraction effects in the terrestrial atmosphere during a lunar eclipse. Our near-UV spectra are featureless, a consequence of missing the narrow time span during the eclipse when near-UV sunlight is not completely attenuated through Earth’s atmosphere due to extremely strong O{sub 3} absorption and when sunlight is transmitted to the lunar surface at altitudes where it passes through the O{sub 3} layer rather than above it.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plant biochemistry influences tropospheric ozone formation, destruction, deposition, and response

Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is among the most damaging air pollutant to plants. Plants alter the atmospheric O 3 concentration in two distinct ways: (i) by the emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that are precursors of O 3 ; and (ii) by dry deposition, which includes diffusion of O 3 into vegetation through stomata and destruction by nonstomatal pathways. Isoprene, monoterpenes, and higher terpenoids are emitted by plants in quantities that alter tropospheric O 3 . Deposition of O 3 into vegetation is related to stomatal conductance, leaf structural traits, and the detoxification capacity of the apoplast. The biochemical fate of O 3 once it enters leaves and reacts with aqueous surfaces is largely unknown, but new techniques for the tracking and identification of initial products have the potential to open the black box.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic tropospheric ozone: assessment of current knowledge and model performance

As the third most important greenhouse gas (GHG) after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is also an air pollutant causing damage to human health and ecosystems. This study brings together recent research on observations and modeling of tropospheric O 3 in the Arctic, a rapidly warming and sensitive environment. At different locations in the Arctic, the observed surface O 3 seasonal cycles are quite different. Coastal Arctic locations, for example, have a minimum in the springtime due to O 3 depletion events resulting from surface bromine chemistry. In contrast, other Arctic locations have a maximum in the spring. The 12 state-of-the-art models used in this study lack the surface halogen chemistry needed to simulate coastal Arctic surface O 3 depletion in the springtime; however, the multi-model median (MMM) has accurate seasonal cycles at non-coastal Arctic locations. There is a large amount of variability among models, which has been previously reported, and we show that there continues to be no convergence among models or improved accuracy in simulating tropospheric O 3 and its precursor species. The MMM underestimates Arctic surface O 3 by 5% to 15% depending on the location. The vertical distribution of tropospheric O 3 is studied from recent ozonesonde measurements and the models. The models are highly variable, simulating free-tropospheric O 3 within a range of ±50% depending on the model and the altitude. The MMM performs best, within ±8% for most locations and seasons. However, nearly all models overestimate O 3 near the tropopause (~300 hPa or ~8 km), likely due to ongoing issues with underestimating the altitude of the tropopause and excessive downward transport of stratospheric O 3 at high latitudes. For example, the MMM is biased high by about 20% at Eureka. Observed and simulated O 3 precursors (CO, NO x , and reservoir PAN) are evaluated throughout the troposphere. Models underestimate wintertime CO everywhere, likely due to a combination of underestimating CO emissions and possibly overestimating OH. Throughout the vertical profile (compared to aircraft measurements), the MMM underestimates both CO and NO x but overestimates PAN. Perhaps as a result of competing deficiencies, the MMM O 3 matches the observed O 3 reasonably well. Our findings suggest that despite model updates over the last decade, model results are as highly variable as ever and have not increased in accuracy for representing Arctic tropospheric O 3 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

ENSO modulation of summertime tropospheric ozone over China

Ozone (O 3 ) is one of the most critical pollutants affecting air quality in China in recent years. In this study, different impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases on summertime tropospheric O 3 over China are examined based on model simulations, ground measurements, and reanalysis data. Summertime surface O 3 concentrations in China show a positive correlation with ENSO index during years 1990–2019, with the largest increases by 20% over southern China in El Niño (warm phase) relative to La Niña (cold phase) years. The ENSO modulation extends to the middle and even upper troposphere. Our analysis indicates that O 3 flux convergence associated with weakened southerlies is the primary reason for the increase in tropospheric O 3 over southern China. In addition, the O 3 increase during El Niño years is mainly from domestic emissions in China. This study highlights the potential significance of ENSO in modulating tropospheric O 3 concentrations in China, with great implications for O 3 pollution mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate-driven deterioration of future ozone pollution in Asia predicted by machine learning with multi-source data

Ozone (O 3 ) is a secondary pollutant in the atmosphere formed by photochemical reactions that endangers human health and ecosystems. O 3 has aggravated in Asia in recent decades and will vary in the future. In this study, to quantify the impacts of future climate change on O 3 pollution, near-surface O 3 concentrations over Asia in 2020–2100 are projected using a machine learning (ML) method along with multi-source data. The ML model is trained with combined O 3 data from a global atmospheric chemical transport model and real-time observations. The ML model is then used to estimate future O 3 with meteorological fields from multi-model simulations under various climate scenarios. The near-surface O 3 concentrations are projected to increase by 5 %–20 % over South China, Southeast Asia, and South India and less than 10 % over North China and the Gangetic Plains under the high-forcing scenarios in the last decade of 21st century, compared to the first decade of 2020–2100. The O 3 increases are primarily owing to the favorable meteorological conditions for O 3 photochemical formation in most Asian regions. We also find that the summertime O 3 pollution over eastern China will expand from North China to South China and extend into the cold season in a warmer future. Our results demonstrate the important role of a climate change penalty on Asian O 3 in the future, which provides implications for environmental and climate strategies of adaptation and mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Vertically Resolved Canopy Improves Chemical Transport Model Predictions of Ozone Deposition to North Temperate Forests

Abstract Dry deposition is the second largest tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) sink and occurs through stomatal and nonstomatal pathways. Current O 3 uptake predictions are limited by the simplistic big‐leaf schemes commonly used in chemical transport models (CTMs) to parameterize deposition. Such schemes fail to reproduce observed O 3 fluxes over terrestrial ecosystems, highlighting the need for more realistic treatment of surface‐atmosphere exchange in CTMs. We address this need by linking a resolved canopy model (1D Multi‐Layer Canopy CHemistry and Exchange Model, MLC‐CHEM) to the GEOS‐Chem CTM and use this new framework to simulate O 3 fluxes over three north temperate forests. We compare results with in situ measurements from four field studies and with standalone, observationally constrained MLC‐CHEM runs to test current knowledge of O 3 deposition and its drivers. We show that GEOS‐Chem overpredicts observed O 3 fluxes across all four studies by up to 2×, whereas the resolved‐canopy models capture observed diel profiles of O 3 deposition and in‐canopy concentrations to within 10%. Relative humidity and solar irradiance are strong O 3 flux drivers over these forests, and uncertainties in those fields provide the largest remaining source of model deposition biases. Flux partitioning analysis shows that: (a) nonstomatal loss accounts for 60% of O 3 deposition on average; (b) in‐canopy chemistry makes only a small contribution to total O 3 fluxes; and (c) the CTM big‐leaf treatment overestimates O 3 ‐driven stomatal loss and plant phytotoxicity in these temperate forests by up to 7×. Results motivate the application of fully online vertically explicit canopy schemes in CTMs for improved O 3 predictions.

Vermeuel, Michael P. [Department of Soil, Water, a↗
DOE OSTI2025

SCILLA Secondary Aerosol Volume Concentration Airborne Data

This data set contains secondary aerosol volume concentration in cubic micrometers per cubic centimeter (um^3/cm^3). The aerosol was generated in an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) and its volume concentration measured with a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS). Both components were designed and built at the University of California Riverside. Ambient particles were removed with a Teflon filter upstream of the OFR and then pure ammonium sulfate particles were added to create a stable aerosol surface area on which low-volatility oxidation products condense. High concentrations of hydroxyl radical (OH) formed inside the OFR accelerate the oxidative chemistry that would typically occur over a period of several days in the atmosphere, resulting in the production of secondary aerosol from precursor gases present in the ambient air. Concentrations of added ozone and water vapor were controlled to produce the desired and approximately constant level of photochemical aging. The reactor temperature was controlled, while the pressure was not, and was always slightly lower than that of the sampled outside air. Sampled air was pulled from above the Naval Postgraduate School’s (NPS) Twin Otter aircraft through a rear-facing, ¼” OD PFA Teflon tube. The sample stream was split between the OFR and several gas analyzers (NOx, CO, O3, and H2O). Though not contained in these files, data from an aerosol mass spectrometer intermittently operated downstream of the OFR are also available.

{"secondary aerosol concentration",aerosol_concent↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO 2 , other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We perform a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth System model simulations to assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. Eleven models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 280 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over East Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Swelling-Assisted Sequential Infiltration Synthesis of Nanoporous ZnO Films with Highly Accessible Pores and Their Sensing Potential for Ethanol

Here, we report a swelling-assisted sequential infiltration synthesis (SIS) approach for the design of highly porous zinc oxide (ZnO) films by infiltration of block copolymer templates such as polystyrene-block- polyvinyl pyridine with inorganic precursors followed by UV ozone-assisted removal of the polymer template. We show that porous ZnO coatings with the thickness in the range between 140 and 420 nm can be obtained using only five cycles of SIS. The pores in ZnO fabricated via swelling-assisted SIS are highly accessible, and up to 98% of pores are available for solvent penetration. The XPS data indicate that the surface of nanoporous ZnO films is terminated with -OH groups. Density functional theory calculations show a lower energy barrier for ethanol-induced release of the oxygen restricted depletion layer in the case of the presence of -OH groups at the ZnO surface, and hence, it can lead to higher sensitivity in sensing of ethanol. We monitored the response of ZnO porous coatings with different thicknesses and porosities to ethanol vapors using combined mass-based and chemiresistive approaches at room temperature and 90 °C. The porous ZnO conformal coatings reveal a promising sensitivity toward detection of ethanol at low temperatures. In conclusion our results suggest the excellent potential of the SIS approach for the design of conformal ZnO coatings with controlled porosity, thickness, and composition that can be adapted for sensing applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dry Deposition Methods Based on Turbulence Kinetic Energy: 1. Evaluation of Various Resistances and Sensitivity Studies Using a Single‐Point Model

Different functions are used to account for turbulence strength in the atmospheric boundary layer for different stability regimes. These functions are one of the sources for differences among different atmospheric models' predictions and associated biases. Also, turbulence strength is underrepresented in some of the resistance formulations. Here, to address these issues with dry deposition, firstly we take advantage of three‐dimensional (3‐D) turbulence information in estimating resistances by proposing and validating a 3‐D turbulence velocity scale that is relevant for different stability regimes of boundary layer. Secondly, we hypothesize and validate that friction velocity measured by 3‐D sonic anemometer can be effectively replaced by the new turbulence velocity scale multiplied by the von Karman constant. Finally, we (a) present a set of resistance formulations for ozone (O 3 ) based on the 3‐D turbulence velocity scale; (b) intercompare estimations of such resistances with those obtained using existing formulations; and, (c) evaluate simulated O 3 fluxes using a single‐point dry deposition model against long‐term observations of O 3 fluxes at the Harvard Forest (MA) site. Results indicate that the new resistance formulations work very well in simulating surface latent heat and O 3 fluxes when compared to respective existing formulations and measurements at a decadal time scale. Findings from this research may help to improve the capability of dry deposition schemes for better estimation of dry deposition fluxes and create opportunities for the development of a community dry deposition model for use in regional/global air quality models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Impact of Model Resolution on the Southern Hemisphere in Community Climate System Model Version 4 Idealized Climate Simulations

Model resolution plays a large role in accurately simulating the Southern Hemisphere circulation in both the ocean and atmosphere. Resolving the mesoscale field is important as it has been shown to have a significant impact on the large-scale climate in eddy-rich regions, which are regions of large CO2 absorption. The presence of ocean and atmospheric mesoscale features can affect sea surface temperatures, the strength and location of storm tracks, and many other air-sea processes. Additionally, with an improvement in resolution, the eddy kinetic energy in the ocean can be expected to change considerably. The significance model resolution has on the Southern Hemisphere is examined using the Community Climate System Model, Version 4, eddy-parameterizing and eddy-resolving simulations. The CO2 concentrations and ozone levels are specified independently to better understand how the mesoscale field responds to extreme changes in external forcing and the resulting climate impacts. Overall, in the eddy-parameterizing simulations, the ozone forcing is found to be more important than the changes in CO2 concentrations. However, in the case of the eddy-resolving simulations, the CO2 concentrations are found to be more dominant, especially in eddy-rich regions. These results demonstrate the need for an increase in model resolution for climate prediction.

Daher, Houraa (ORCID:0000000200177346)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Growth of PdCoO 2 by ozone-assisted molecular-beam epitaxy

We report the in situ , direct epitaxial synthesis of (0001)-oriented PdCoO 2 thin films on c-plane sapphire using ozone-assisted molecular-beam epitaxy. The resulting films have smoothness, structural perfection, and electrical characteristics that rival the best in situ grown PdCoO 2 thin films in the literature. Metallic conductivity is observed in PdCoO 2 films as thin as ~2.0 nm. The PdCoO 2 films contain 180° in-plane rotation twins. Scanning transmission electron microscopy reveals that the growth of PdCoO 2 on the (0001) surface of Al 2 O 3 begins with the CoO 2 layer.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of chemical production and depositional losses on formaldehyde in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM)

Abstract. Formaldehyde (HCHO) is an important air pollutant with direct cancer risk and ozone-forming potential. HCHO sources are complex because HCHO is both directly emitted and produced from oxidation of most gas-phase reactive organic carbon. We update the secondary production of HCHO in the Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM) in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Production of HCHO from isoprene and monoterpenes is increased, correcting an underestimate in the current version. Simulated June–August surface HCHO during peak photochemical production (11:00–15:00 LT, local time) increased by 0.6 ppb (32 %) over the southeastern USA and by 0.2 ppb (13 %) over the contiguous USA. The increased HCHO compares more favorably with satellite-based observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and from aircraft-based observations. Evaluation against hourly surface observations indicates a missing nighttime sink that can be improved by increased nighttime deposition, which reduces June–August nocturnal (20:00–04:00 LT) surface HCHO by 1.1 ppb (36 %) over the southeastern USA and 0.5 ppb (29 %) over the contiguous USA. The ability of CRACMM to capture peak levels of HCHO at midday is improved, particularly at sites in the northeastern USA, while peak levels at sites in the southeastern USA are improved, although still lower than observed. Using established risk assessment methods, lifetime exposure of the population in the contiguous USA (∼ 320 million) to ambient HCHO levels predicted here may result in 6200 lifetime cancer cases, with 40 % from controllable anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides and reactive organic compounds. Chemistry updates will be available in CRACMM version 2 (CRACMM2) in CMAQv5.5.

Skipper, T. Nash↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupled Interfacial and Bulk Kinetics Govern the Timescales of Multiphase Ozonolysis Reactions

Chemical transformations in aerosols impact the lifetime of particle phase species, the fate of atmospheric pollutants, and both climate- and health-relevant aerosol properties. Timescales for multiphase reactions of ozone in atmospheric aqueous phases are governed by coupled kinetic processes between the gas phase, the particle interface, and its bulk, which respond dynamically to reactive consumption of O 3 . However, models of atmospheric aerosol reactivity often do not account for the coupled nature of multiphase processes. Herein, to examine these dynamics, we use new and prior experimental observations of aqueous droplet reaction kinetics, including three systems with a range of surface affinities and ozonolysis rate coefficients ( trans -aconitic acid (C 6 H 6 O 6 ), maleic acid (C 4 H 4 O 4 ), and sodium nitrite (NaNO 2 )). Using literature rate coefficients and thermodynamic properties, we constrain a simple two-compartment stochastic kinetic model which resolves the interface from the particle bulk and represents O 3 partitioning, diffusion, and reaction as a coupled kinetic system. Our kinetic model accurately predicts decay kinetics across all three systems, demonstrating that both the thermodynamic properties of O 3 and the coupled kinetic and diffusion processes are key to making accurate predictions. An enhanced concentration of adsorbed O 3 , compared to gas and bulk phases is rapidly maintained and remains constant even as O 3 is consumed by reaction. Multiphase systems dynamically seek to achieve equilibrium in response to reactive O 3 loss, but this is hampered at solute concentrations relevant to aqueous aerosol by the rate of O 3 arrival in the bulk by diffusion. As a result, bulk-phase O 3 becomes depleted from its Henry's law solubility. This bulk-phase O 3 depletion limits reaction timescales for relatively slow-reacting organic solutes with low interfacial affinity (i.e., trans-aconitic and maleic acids, with k rxn ≈ 10 3 -10 4 M -1 s -1 ), which is in contrast to fast-reacting solutes with higher surface affinity (i.e., nitrite, with k rxn ≈ 10 5 M -1 s -1 ) where surface reactions strongly impact the observed decay kinetics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pinhole‐Free Ultrathin Silicon Oxide Layer by Ozone‐Dissolved Deionized Water

The pinhole‐free silicon oxide (SiO x ) layer grown using dissolved ozone in deionized water (DI‐O 3 ) is demonstrated. An ultrathin SiO x layer of thickness 1.53 nm ± 1.5% is grown on silicon wafer using 7 ppm DI‐O 3 . A four‐step methodology, including 25 wt% aq. tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH) solution at 80 °C, is employed to magnify the pinhole signatures in the underlying silicon and visualized with dark‐field optical microscopy (DFOM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The DFOM images show spots on the surface of wafer that originate from airborne particles, contamination, etc. SEM images reveal the absence of etch pits in silicon even after etching of SiO x /silicon in TMAH for 300 s. The minority carrier lifetime and interface states density in AlO x ‐capped SiO x /Si structure are ≥2 ms at carrier density of 1 × 10 15 cm −3 and less than 2 × 10 11 cm −2 eV −1 , respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

SpectrumSDT: A program for parallel calculation of coupled rotational-vibrational energies and lifetimes of bound states and scattering resonances in triatomic systems

In this work, we present SpectrumSDT – a program for calculations of energies and lifetimes of bound rotational-vibrational states below and scattering resonances above the dissociation threshold on a global potential energy surface of a triatomic system, which may include stable molecules, weekly-bound van-der-Waals complexes, and unbound atom + diatom scattering systems. Large-amplitude vibrational motion is treated explicitly using hyper-spherical coordinates. Three options for the rotational-vibrational interaction are supported: uncoupled (symmetric top rotor), partially coupled (to include interaction between several nearest states only) and full-coupled (vibrating asymmetric-top rotor). In addition to energies and lifetimes, SpectrumSDT is able to integrate ro-vibrational wave functions over the user-defined regions of potential energy surface, which helps to classify these states. In this release of the code, SpectrumSDT is limited to ABA-type molecules with wave functions that do not extend into the regions near Eckart singularities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future climate change in the Agulhas system and its associated impact on South African rainfall

South African climate variability has been linked to changes in both the Agulhas system and external forcing (i.e. CO 2 and ozone). We analysed future climate change in the Agulhas system volume transport and its associated impacts on South Africa’s precipitation using the Community Climate System Model version 4 as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5. Output from one historical and three future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were examined to project various climate storylines. We found that the Agulhas Current volume transport decreases across all three scenarios and that the current displays a strong baroclinic component with an increase in transport at the surface and decrease at intermediate depths. Agulhas leakage was found to increase with historical emissions. Additionally, an east-west dipole pattern for convective precipitation was found over South Africa, with an increase over the eastern region related to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and a decrease in the western region linked to the location of Hadley cell edge latitude. Moving into the 21st century, future predictions in regional climate variability are shown to be dependent on the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions and are extremely important for South Africa, a region prone to drought and flooding and home to a large population dependent on rain-fed agriculture.Significance:Future climate variability in the Agulhas system and South African region is heavily dependent on changes in external forcing.The Agulhas Current volume transport decreases as the greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase and a strong baroclinic component is found with an increase in transport at the surface and a decrease at the intermediate depths.A strong east-west dipole precipitation pattern is found over South Africa with the increase in the eastern region related to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions and the decrease in the western region related to the location of the Hadley cell edge latitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗