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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

On the Importance of Sea Surface Temperature for Aerosol–Induced Brightening of Marine Clouds and Implications for Cloud Feedback in a Future Warmer Climate

Marine low clouds are one of the greatest sources of uncertainty for climate projection. We present an observed climatology of cloud albedo susceptibility to cloud droplet number concentration perturbations (S 0 ) with changing sea surface temperature (SST) and estimated inversion strength for single-layer warm clouds over the North Atlantic Ocean, using eight years of satellite and reanalysis data. The key findings are that SST has a dominant control on S 0 in the presence of co-varying synoptic conditions and aerosol perturbations. Cloud brightening in regions with positive S 0 weakens with increasing local SST. Higher SST significantly hastens cloud-top evaporation with increasing aerosol loading, by accelerating entrainment and facilitating entrainment drying. In a global-warming-like scenario where aerosol loading is reduced, more cloud brightening is expected, mainly as a result of reduced entrainment drying. Furthermore, our results imply a less positive low-cloud liquid water path feedback in a warmer climate with decreasing aerosol loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach

Wind energy production is expected to be affected by shifts in wind patterns that will accompany climate change. However, many questions remain on the magnitude and character of this impact, especially on regional scales. In this study, clustering is used to group and analyze large-scale wind patterns in California using model simulations from the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Specifically, simulations have been produced that cover historical (1980–2000), mid-century (2030–2050), and end-of-century (2080–2100) time periods. Once clustered, observed changes to wind patterns can be analyzed in terms of both the change in frequency of those clusters and changes to winds within-clusters. Statistically significant capacity factors changes have been found at all five wind plant sites. Further, decomposition of the capacity factor changes into frequency changes and within-cluster changes enables a better understanding of their drivers. A further examination of the synoptic-scale fields associated with each cluster then provides a better understanding of how changes to large-scale meteorological fields are important for driving changes in localized wind speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Arctic low-level clouds and precipitation from above – a radar perspective

Most Arctic clouds occur below 2 km altitude as revealed by CloudSat satellite observations. However, recent studies suggest that the relatively coarse spatial resolution, low sensitivity, and blind zone of the radar installed on CloudSat may not enable it to comprehensively document low-level clouds. We investigate the impact of these limitations on the Arctic low- level cloud fraction, which is the amount of cloudy points with respect to all points as a function of height, derived from CloudSat radar observations. For this purpose, we leverage highly resolved vertical profiles of low-level cloud fraction derived from downlooking Microwave Radar/radiometer for Arctic Clouds (MiRAC) radar reflectivity measurements. MiRAC has been operated during four aircraft campaigns taking place in the vicinity of Svalbard during different times of the year and covering more than 25,000 km. This allows us to study the dependence of CloudSat limitations on different synoptic and surface conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A High‐Resolution Tropical Mesoscale Convective System Reanalysis (TMeCSR)

Abstract Modern global reanalysis products have greatly accelerated meteorological research in synoptic‐to‐planetary‐scale phenomena. However, their use in studying tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their regional‐to‐global impact has mostly been limited to supplying initial and boundary conditions for MCS‐resolving simulations and providing information about the large‐scale environments of MCSs. These limitations are due to difficulties in resolving tropical MCS dynamics in the relatively low‐resolution global models and that tropical MCSs often occur over poorly observed regions. In this work, a Tropical MCS‐resolving Reanalysis product (TMeCSR) was created over a region with frequent tropical MCSs. This region spans the tropical Indian Ocean, tropical continental Asia, Maritime Continent, and Western Pacific. TMeCSR is produced by assimilating all‐sky infrared radiances from geostationary satellites and other conventional observations into an MCS‐resolving regional model using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The resulting observation‐constrained high‐resolution (9‐km grid spacing) data set is available hourly during the boreal summer (June‐August) of 2017, during which widespread severe flooding occurred. Comparisons of TMeCSR and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) against independent satellite retrievals indicate that TMeCSR's cloud and multiscale rain fields are better than those of ERA5. Furthermore, TMeCSR better captured the diurnal variability of rainfall and the statistical characteristics of MCSs. Forecasts initialized from TMeCSR also have more accurate rain and clouds than those initialized from ERA5. The TMeCSR and ERA5 forecasts have similar performances with respect to sounding and surface observations. These results indicate that TMeCSR is a promising MCS‐resolving data set for tropical MCS studies.

Chan, Man‐Yau↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for: A Synoptic System for Capturing Ecosystem Control Points Across Terrestrial-Aquatic Interfaces

The investigation of how climate change and water level fluctuations impact variable and interconnected ecosystems, like the interfaces between terrestrial and aquatic environments, requires the collection and integration of many data types. We describe an integrative and autonomous environmental monitoring approach that uses environmental sensors and data loggers to monitor surface water, groundwater, soil, and vegetation changes and generate essential data for predictive models. We established the network at seven sites along the Chesapeake Bay and Lake Erie coastlines, including a large-scale flood manipulation experiment, collectively generating over three million observations per month. Such sensor networks hold great promise for tracking and comprehending environmental changes where land and water intersect. The sensor system and overall approach to sensor management that we have designed is intended to be widely accessible for research teams spanning in size from an individual investigator to large multi-institution projects. This dataset shows example data generated by the sensor network described above. Data output for data loggers connected to groundwater water quality sondes measuring dissolved oxygen, pH, oxidative redox potential (ORP), groundwater elevation, groundwater salinity and temperature, and groundwater elevation; replicate soil moisture and conductivity probes installed at 10 and 30 cm below the ground surface; rainfall and solar radiation; and mean sap flow from 8 replicate probes. Sensors are installed at upland forest (UP), wetlands (W), and transitional locations between these ecosystems (TR). Example datasets are from Goodwin Islands in the Chesapeake Bay and Portage River along the Lake Erie coastline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Urban Observatory: A Multi-Modal Imaging Platform for the Study of Dynamics in Complex Urban Systems

We describe an “Urban Observatory” facility designed for the study of complex urban systems via persistent, synoptic, and granular imaging of dynamical processes in cities. An initial deployment of the facility has been demonstrated in New York City and consists of a suite of imaging systems—both broadband and hyperspectral—sensitive to wavelengths from the visible (∼400 nm) to the infrared (∼13 micron) operating at cadences of ∼0.01–30 Hz (characteristically ∼0.1 Hz). Much like an astronomical survey, the facility generates a large imaging catalog from which we have extracted observables (e.g., time-dependent brightnesses, spectra, temperatures, chemical species, etc.), collecting them in a parallel source catalog. We have demonstrated that, in addition to the urban science of cities as systems, these data are applicable to a myriad of domain-specific scientific inquiries related to urban functioning including energy consumption and end use, environmental impacts of cities, and patterns of life and public health. We show that an Urban Observatory facility of this type has the potential to improve both a city’s operations and the quality of life of its inhabitants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

First Impressions: Early-time Classification of Supernovae Using Host-galaxy Information and Shallow Learning

Substantial effort has been devoted to the characterization of transient phenomena from photometric information. Automated approaches to this problem have taken advantage of complete phase coverage of an event, limiting their use for triggering rapid follow-up of ongoing phenomena. In this work, we introduce a neural network with a single recurrent layer designed explicitly for early photometric classification of supernovae (SNe). Our algorithm leverages transfer learning to account for model misspecification, host-galaxy photometry to solve the data-scarcity problem soon after discovery, and a custom weighted loss to prioritize accurate early classification. We first train our algorithm using state-of-the-art transient and host-galaxy simulations, then adapt its weights and validate it on the spectroscopically confirmed SNe Ia, SNe II, and SNe Ib/c from the Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey. On observed data, our method achieves an overall accuracy of 82% ± 2% within 3 days of an event’s discovery, and an accuracy of 87% ± 5% within 30 days of discovery. At both early and late phases, our method achieves comparable or superior results to the leading classification algorithms with a simpler network architecture. These results help pave the way for rapid photometric and spectroscopic follow-up of scientifically valuable transients discovered in massive synoptic surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large-Scale Synoptic Systems and Fog During the C-FOG Field Experiment

Abstract The goal of this work is to summarize synoptic meteorological conditions during the Coastal Fog (C-FOG) field project that took place onshore and offshore of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland, from 25 August until 8 October 2018. Visibility was measured at three locations at the Ferryland supersite that are about 1 km from each other, and at two additional sites 66 and 76 km to the north. Supporting meteorological measurements included surface winds, air temperature, humidity, pressure, radiation, cloud-base height, and atmospheric thermodynamic profiles from radiosonde soundings. Statistics are presented for surface measurements during fog events including turbulence kinetic energy, net longwave radiation, visibility, and precipitation. Eleven fog events are observed at Ferryland. Each significant fog event is related to a large-scale cyclonic system. The longest fog event is due to interaction of a northern deep low and a tropical cyclone. Fog occurrence is also examined across Atlantic Canada by including Sable Island, Yarmouth, Halifax, and Sydney. It is concluded that at Ferryland, all significant fog events occur under a cyclonic system while at Sable Island all significant fog events occur under both cyclonic and anticyclonic systems. The fog-formation mechanism involves cloud lowering and stratus broadening or only stratus broadening for the cyclonic systems while for the anticyclonic systems it is stratus broadening or radiation. Although widely cited as the main cause of fog in Atlantic Canada, advection fog is not found to be the primary or sole fog type in the events examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vertical profiles of trace gas and aerosol properties over the eastern North Atlantic: variations with season and synoptic condition

Abstract. Because of their extensive coverage, marine low clouds greatly impact the global climate. Presently, the response of marine low clouds to the changes in atmospheric aerosols remains a major source of uncertainty in climate simulations. One key contribution to this large uncertainty derives from the poor understanding of the properties and processes of marine aerosols under natural conditions and the perturbation by anthropogenic emissions. The eastern North Atlantic (ENA) is a region of persistent but diverse subtropical marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds, where cloud albedo and precipitation are highly susceptible to perturbations in aerosol properties. Here we examine the key processes that drive the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) population in the MBL using comprehensive characterizations of aerosol and trace gas vertical profiles during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. During ACE-ENA, a total of 39 research flights were conducted in the Azores: 20 during summer 2017 and 19 during winter 2018. During summer, long-range-transported aerosol layers were periodically observed in the lower free troposphere (FT), leading to elevated FT CCN concentrations (NCCN). Both biomass burning and pollution from North America contribute to submicron aerosol mass in these layers, with pollution likely the dominant contributor. In contrast, long-range transported continental emissions have a much weaker influence on the aerosol properties in the ENA during the winter season. While the entrainment of FT air is a major source of particle number in the MBL for both seasons, on average it does not serve as a direct source of CCN in the MBL because the average FT NCCN is the same or even lower than that in the MBL. The particle number flux due to FT entrainment is dominated by pre-CCN (particles that are too small to form cloud droplets under typical conditions, i.e., particles with sizes below the Hoppel minimum) due to the elevated Npre-CCN in the lower FT. Once these pre-CCN are entrained into the MBL, they can grow and reach CCN size range through condensational growth, representing an indirect and major source of MBL CCN in the ENA. The impact of synoptic conditions on the aerosol properties is examined. Under pre-front and post-front conditions, shallow convective activity often leads to a deep and decoupled boundary layer. Coalescence scavenging and evaporation of drizzle below clouds lead to reduced NCCN and larger accumulation-mode particle sizes in the upper cloud-containing decoupled layer, indicating that surface measurements overestimate the NCCN relevant to the formation of MBL clouds under decoupled conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convection-Permitting Ensembles of an Isolated Mountain Thunderstorm during RELAMPAGO/CACTI

Abstract The north–south-oriented Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) ridge in central Argentina is noted for initiating thunderstorms that may grow into intense mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). It also initiates more isolated, shorter-lived cells under weaker synoptic forcing. These cells are less impactful than MCSs but may be difficult to predict in convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to their strong sensitivities to subgrid and partially resolved processes. To study the mechanisms and predictability of such cells, convection-permitting ensemble simulations were conducted of an isolated, diurnally forced SDC thunderstorm during Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI)/Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO). The rich observational data facilitated detailed ensemble verification, where dry biases in the surface energy balance and soil moisture were identified. These biases promoted rapid removal of convective inhibition and an early onset of precipitating cells over the SDC that were shallower and weaker than the observed cell. Correction, and then overcorrection, of the soil moisture bias in two successive ensembles was required to rectify the surface energy balance and improve the representation of the SDC cell. Nevertheless, substantial ensemble variability in convective precipitation was found, with some members producing more widespread convection than observed and others producing no deep convection at all. This variability was largely explained by a combination of thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms, dominated by a positive sensitivity of convective precipitation to preconvective moist instability over the ridge. Secondary sensitivities were found to low-level upward mass flux and midlevel cross-barrier winds, the latter of which caused gravity waves with elevated downdrafts that tended to suppress incipient clouds.

Lopez, Andres [Department of Atmospheric and Ocean↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Slantwise Descending Dry Intrusions on the Marine Boundary Layer and Air-Sea Interface Over the ARM Eastern North Atlantic Site

Dry intrusions (DIs) are synoptic-scale slantwise descending airstreams from the midlatitude upper troposphere toward the boundary layer at lower latitudes. Typically occurring behind cold fronts, such intrusions of dry air often reach the boundary layer and cause its deepening, thereby affecting boundary-layer clouds. Although subsidence is generally an inherent feature of the subtropical marine boundary layer (MBL), it is unclear how the MBL reacts to the transient, dynamically distinct DI. In this study, reanalysis data were combined with observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site (39.1 degrees N,28.0 degrees W) to characterize the impact of DIs on MBL characteristics and clouds. Specifically, an objective criterion is applied to the observations made during the winter months of 2016-2018 to identify the DI days from those before and following DIs, and reference periods without DIs. The analyses suggest substantial deepening of the well-mixed boundary layer accompanied by changes in the cloud, precipitation and thermodynamic properties during the DI events. During the DI, the lower troposphere cooled and dried substantially thereby inducing strong surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. All while a strong inversion builds up at the elevated MBL top affecting cloud occurrence. The results show DIs to affect the boundary layer and cloud structure at the ENA site similar to 21% of the time in winter months, with the response of the cloud fields to the DI-fronts substantially different than that to the non-DI fronts. Hence, the DI events should be considered while studying boundary layer and cloud processes in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cloud and Precipitation Properties of MCSs Along the Meiyu Frontal Zone in Central and Southern China and Their Associated Large-Scale Environments

This study focuses on investigating the cloud and precipitation features of Meiyu mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their relation to the large-scale environments in central and southern China using satellite observations and reanalysis data during the period 2014–2018. MCSs from two different locations, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and Southern China (SC), are examined separately. The Meiyu MCSs have a mean precipitation rate of 3.6 mm/hr and contribute 20% to 60% of the total precipitation during the Meiyu period. The diurnal cycle of Meiyu MCSs shows a maximum precipitation amount in the morning, which is associated with the enhanced nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ) overnight. Although the synoptic setups in YRB and SC are found to be similar when normalized around the MCS initiation locations, MCSs exhibit some differences in terms of the cloud top height, precipitation rate, and duration, which are likely by the differences in the local forcing. Large interannual variations are found in MCSs' number, cloud size, lifetime, and rainfall intensity, which is found to be associated with the interannual variabilities in the large-scale environments. By comparing the large-scale environments with climatological mean states, we find that the year with the most intense MCS activity during the study period is characterized by an intensified southwesterly LLJ, which increases the moisture transport from the Indian Ocean and an enhancement of the midtropospheric westerly jet, which induces adiabatic ascent along the Meiyu front, creating more favorable conditions for convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraining the Aerosol Effects on Deep Convective Clouds by Considering the Coupling Between Clouds and the Planetary Boundary Layer

Several mechanisms have been proposed for the aerosol invigoration effect. Although their principles are well established, their actual magnitudes and roles in cloud development remain uncertain and debatable. This uncertainty partly stems from observational-based studies, in which it has been challenging to separate the co-variability between aerosols and meteorology. Addressing this problem requires large data samples. To this end, this study employs the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement data set expanding to 16 years (some up to 17 years, compared to 10 years in previous work) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. It also conducts a more careful and rigorous analysis to isolate the influences of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and synoptic patterns to address a previously raised concern. We incorporated a new key process affecting aerosol-cloud interaction: cloud-surface coupling. The state/degree of the coupling relationship turns out to play an important role in the invigoration effect. Our analysis reinforces earlier findings of a robust positive relationship between cloud thickness and aerosol loading across CAPE percentiles—but only under cloud-surface coupled conditions. The increase in cloud thickness with aerosol loading is most pronounced in coupled clouds with high CAPE and bases below 1 km. Coupled clouds with bases below 1 km thicken between 1 and 4 km, depending on the CAPE percentile. Decoupled clouds show no such systematic changes. Synoptic patterns also lead to different strengths of the invigoration effect. Clean and polluted air masses are predominantly associated with northerly and southerly winds, respectively, with a stronger invigoration effect in cleaner air masses.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Irrigation Impacts on Low-Level Jets over the Great Plains

Low-level jets (LLJs) over the Great Plains are well-known for their importance in transporting moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and forming precipitation in the Central US. However, the impact of irrigation practice on LLJs is rarely studied. To understand the irrigation impact on the Great Plains LLJs, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed with and without an irrigation scheme. The simulated wind field is evaluated against the observed wind from Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). The results show that adding irrigation improves the simulated wind, especially at lower altitudes below 800 hPa. Irrigation reduces the LLJ frequency over the Great Plains, mainly by reducing the intense LLJ frequency. The reduced LLJ frequency is caused by the irrigation-induced weakening of meridional wind. The favorable conditions for LLJs have been identified by examining the mechanism associated with LLJs: a ridge-like pattern with weak and calm synoptic-scale conditions in the mid-levels and a strong west-east temperature gradient at lower levels that promote meridional winds. Irrigation-induced cooling leads to a baroclinic pattern with high pressure at lower altitudes over the irrigation region and low pressure in the mid- and upper levels in the downstream region, resulting in a northerly component that hinders the formation of LLJs. Low-level surface cooling also decreases the west-east temperature gradient and hence weakens the thermal wind forcing. The irrigation-induced mid-level low and weaker west-east temperature gradient are responsible for the reduced meridional winds and the reduced LLJ frequencies.

Yang, Zhao↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon ( Meiyu ) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Abstract The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu , produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

Tung, Yu‐Shiang↗
DOE OSTI2023

All-sky Faint DA White Dwarf Spectrophotometric Standards for Astrophysical Observatories: The Complete Sample

Hot DA white dwarfs (DAWDs) have fully radiative pure hydrogen atmospheres that are the least complicated to model. Pulsationally stable, they are fully characterized by their effective temperature T eff and surface gravity log g, which can be deduced from their optical spectra and used in model atmospheres to predict their spectral energy distributions (SEDs). Based on this, three bright DAWDs have defined the spectrophotometric flux scale of the CALSPEC system of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). In this paper we add 32 new fainter (16.5 < V < 19.5) DAWDs spread over the whole sky and within the dynamic range of large telescopes. Using ground-based spectra and panchromatic photometry with HST/WFC3, a new hierarchical analysis process demonstrates consistency between model and observed fluxes above the terrestrial atmosphere to <0.004 mag rms from 2700 to 7750 Å and to 0.008 mag rms at 1.6 μm for the total set of 35 DAWDs. These DAWDs are thus established as spectrophotometric standards with unprecedented accuracy from the near-ultraviolet to the near infrared, suitable for both ground- and space-based observatories. They are embedded in existing surveys like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Pan-STARRS, and Gaia, and will be naturally included in the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope survey by the Rubin Observatory. With additional data and analysis to extend the validity of their SEDs further into the infrared, these spectrophotometric standard stars could be used for JWST, as well as for the Roman and Euclid observatories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential Weakening of the June 2012 North American Derecho Under Future Warming Conditions

Derechos produce widespread and long-lived damaging wind, causing severe life and property loss. Here, this study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming. Convection-permitting regional model simulations of the derecho as observed are compared with simulations under a pseudo global warming scenario of the future environments by the end of the 21st century following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5). The control simulations can well reproduce the observed derecho features, including storm evolution, surface wind, and precipitation, except for a 2-hour delay relative to observations. Compared to the control simulations, the derecho shrinks and decays earlier in the future environments, with much less destructive impacts on the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. The shrinkage of the derecho is attributed to the lower relative humidity on both sides of the derecho propagation path under global warming, which suppresses updraft and strengthens downdraft, impeding the spatial extent of the derecho. The premature decay is due to the intensification of an isolated deep convection (IDC) event that develops ahead of the derecho. The meridional gradient of future warming strengthens the synoptic environments, enhancing convergence in a corridor of higher instability that facilitates intensification and continuous development of the IDC event. By consuming most of the energy and moisture on the derecho propagation path, the IDC hinders the derecho development in the Mid-Atlantic coastal areas. Focusing on a single derecho event, this study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗