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DOE OSTI2016

Statistical properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections through the solar cycle

Waiting Time Distributions (WTDs) of solar flares are investigated all through the solar cycle. The same approach applied to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in a previous work is considered here for flare occurrence. Our analysis reveals that flares and CMEs share some common statistical properties, which result dependent on the level of solar activity. Both flares and CMEs seem to independently occur during minimum solar activity phases, whilst their WTDs significantly deviate from a Poisson function at solar maximum, thus suggesting that these events are correlated. The characteristics of WTDs are constrained by the physical processes generating those eruptions associated with flares and CMEs. A scenario may be drawn in which different mechanisms are actively at work during different phases of the solar cycle. Stochastic processes, most likely related to random magnetic reconnections of the field lines, seem to play a key role during solar minimum periods. On the other hand, persistent processes, like sympathetic eruptions associated to the variability of the photospheric magnetism, are suggested to dominate during periods of high solar activity. Moreover, despite the similar statistical properties shown by flares and CMEs, as it was mentioned above, their WTDs appear different in some aspects. During solar minimum periods, the flare occurrence randomness seems to be more evident than for CMEs. Those persistent mechanisms generating interdependent events during maximum periods of solar activity can be suggested to play a more important role for CMEs than for flares, thus mitigating the competitive action of the random processes, which seem instead strong enough to weaken the correlations among flare event occurrence during solar minimum periods. However, it cannot be excluded that the physical processes at the basis of the origin of the temporal correlation between solar events are different for flares and CMEs, or that, more likely, more sophisticated effects are at work at the same time leading to an even more complex picture. This work represents a first step for further investigations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1977

Morphology and physical parameters of a solar flare

The chromospheric and coronal morphology of the flare of June 15, 1973, (1B/M3) in NOAA active region 131 (McMath 12379) is discussed, and results of quantitative analysis of Skylab soft X-ray observations of the event are presented. H-alpha and white-light observations reveal evidence of emerging flux near the site of the H-alpha flare onset. Preflare and early flare filament activity and its spatial and temporal correlation with the flare are discussed. Spatially resolved soft X-rays are compared with H-alpha and magnetic-field measurements. Full-disk high-temporal-resolution soft X-ray flux measurements and time profiles of the resultant temperature and density calculations are also presented which yield a peak temperature of about 14.2 million K and a peak electron density of approximately 3.5 deg 10 to the -10th power per cu cm and show a preflash-phase temperature rise to about 9 million K. The peak values should be compared with the respective values of approximately 25 million K and 4.5 by 10 to the -10th power per cu cm deduced from the spatially resolved data.

Smith, J. B., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Temporal Coarse Graining for Classical Stochastic Noise in Quantum Systems

Simulations of quantum systems with Hamiltonian classical stochastic noise can be challenging when the noise exhibits temporal correlations over a multitude of time scales, such as for 1/f noise in solid-state quantum information processors. Here we present an approach for simulating Hamiltonian classical stochastic noise that performs temporal coarse-graining by effectively integrating out the high-frequency components of the noise. We focus on the case where the stochastic noise can be expressed as a sum of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. Temporal coarse-graining is then achieved by conditioning the stochastic process on a coarse realization of the noise, expressing the conditioned stochastic process in terms of a sum of smooth, deterministic functions and bridge processes with boundaries fixed at zero, and performing the ensemble average over the bridge processes. For Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, the deterministic components capture all dependence on the coarse realization, and the stochastic bridge processes are not only independent but taken from the same distribution with correlators that can be expressed analytically, allowing the associated noise propagators to be precomputed once for all simulations. This combination of noise trajectories on a coarse time grid and ensemble averaging over bridge processes has practical advantages, such as a simple concatenation rule, that we highlight with numerical examples.

Albash, Tameem [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Alb↗

NASA NTRS2017

Tropospheric Ozonesonde Profiles at Long-Term U.S. Monitoring Sites: 2. Links Between Trinidad Head, CA, Profile Clusters and Inland Surface Ozone Measurements

Much attention has been focused on the transport of ozone (O3) to the western U.S., particularly given the latest revision of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard to 70 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) of O3. This makes quantifying the contributions of stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange, local pollution, and pollution transport to this region essential. To evaluate free-tropospheric and surface O3 in the western U.S., we use self-organizing maps to cluster 18 years of ozonesonde profiles from Trinidad Head, CA. Three of nine O3 mixing ratio profile clusters exhibit thin laminae of high O3 above Trinidad Head. The high O3 layers are located between 1 and 6 km above mean sea level and reside above an inversion associated with a northern location of the Pacific subtropical high. Ancillary data (reanalyses, trajectories, and remotely sensed carbon monoxide) help identify the high O3 sources in one cluster, but distinguishing mixed influences on the elevated O3 in other clusters is difficult. Correlations between the elevated tropospheric O3 and surface O3 at high-altitude monitors at Lassen Volcanic and Yosemite National Parks, and Truckee, CA, are marked and long lasting. The temporal correlations likely result from a combination of transport of baseline O3 and covarying meteorological parameters. Days corresponding to the high O3 clusters exhibit hourly surface O3 anomalies of +5-10 ppbv compared to a climatology; the positive anomalies can last up to 3 days after the ozonesonde profile. The profile and surface O3 links demonstrate the importance of regular ozonesonde profiling at Trinidad Head.

STE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Muon Time-of-Flight studies for cosmic background rejection in the Short Baseline Near Detector

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program at Fermilab is a cutting-edge project in experimental neutrino physics. One of its main goals is to systematically investigate the possible existence of eV-scale sterile neutrinos. This phenomenon has been hypothesized to explain some anomalies found in short-range experiments and, if confirmed, would imply a substantial extension of the Standard Model. SBN also offers an important opportunity to deepen the understanding of neutrino-nucleus interactions in the GeV energy range, through the use of Liquid Argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPC) detectors, a fundamental technology also for the future DUNE experiment. The SBN experimental infrastructure consists of three detectors aligned along the Booster Neutrino Beamline at Fermilab. Among them, the detector located closest to the neutrino source, SBND (Short-Baseline Near Detector), positioned approximately 110 meters from the target, plays a key role in directly characterizing the initial neutrino flux. This allows for a direct comparison with the measurements from the far detector, ICARUS, located about 600 meters from the source, in order to search for potential signs of anomalous neutrino oscillations. My master's thesis focuses on the commissioning and characterization activities of the SBND detector, with particular reference to the Cosmic Ray Tagger (CRT). The CRT is a subsystem for identifying and rejecting events produced by cosmic rays, which constitute the main source of background for surface experiments like SBND. The activity began with the commissioning of the final components of the detector, as well as their validation to verify their correct functioning and signal acquisition. A central part of my work involved studying the veto efficiency of the CRT system, analyzing the rate of cosmic ray-induced events to quantify any loss of neutrino-induced events caused by cosmic background. This allowed for a more precise evaluation of the systematic impact of the CRT on the useful physics sample. A further phase of my analysis involved an in-depth study of the temporal correlation between the CRT signals and those acquired by the LArTPC's internal photodetector system, consisting of photomultiplier tubes and X-ARAPUCA devices. The objective is to explore the possibility of using combined temporal information as an additional criterion for discriminating between cosmic signals and signals genuinely due to neutrino interaction. Preliminary results indicate the presence of characteristic temporal signatures that could be exploited to improve event selection and increase the purity of the neutrino-induced sample. These methodologies will certainly contribute to the optimization of SBND analysis strategies and, more generally, to a better understanding of background mechanisms in next-generation LArTPC experiments.

Corallo, Annalea [Ferrara U.]↗

NASA NTRS1995

Correlated brightness variations in solar radiative output from the photosphere to the corona

Correlated brightness variations are shown to occur in time series of coronal soft X-rays exclusive of prominent active regions, chromospheric ultraviolet radiation, and the photospheric total solar irradiance corrected for sunspot effects. These temporal correlations suggest that upwardly extending magnetic fields may have a large scale impact on the solar atmosphere in addition to their demonstrable role of generating localized active regions. The correlations have implications for improving and extending solar spectrum variability models.

Lean, J. L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Faster network disruption from layered oscillatory dynamics

Nonlinear complex network-coupled systems typically have multiple stable equilibrium states. Following perturbations or due to ambient noise, the system is pushed away from its initial equilibrium, and, depending on the direction and the amplitude of the excursion, it might undergo a transition to another equilibrium. It was recently demonstrated [M. Tyloo, J. Phys. Complex. 3 03LT01 (2022)] that layered complex networks may exhibit amplified fluctuations. Here, I investigate how noise with system-specific correlations impacts the first escape time of nonlinearly coupled oscillators. Interestingly, I show that, not only the strong amplification of the fluctuations is a threat to the good functioning of the network but also the spatial and temporal correlations of the noise along the lowest-lying eigenmodes of the Laplacian matrix. Finally, I analyze first escape times on synthetic networks and compare noise originating from layered dynamics to uncorrelated noise.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation

Abstract Understanding the complex interrelationships between wildfire and its environmental and anthropogenic controls is crucial for wildfire modeling and management. Although machine learning (ML) models have yielded significant improvements in wildfire predictions, their limited interpretability has been an obstacle for their use in advancing understanding of wildfires. This study builds an ML model incorporating predictors of local meteorology, land‐surface characteristics, and socioeconomic variables to predict monthly burned area at grid cells of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution over the contiguous United States. Besides these predictors, we construct and include predictors representing the large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to wildfires, which largely improves the temporal correlations in several regions by 14%–44%. The Shapley additive explanation is introduced to quantify the contributions of the predictors to burned area. Results show a key role of longitude and latitude in delineating fire regimes with different temporal patterns of burned area. The model captures the physical relationship between burned area and vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity (RH), and energy release component (ERC), in agreement with the prior findings. Aggregating the contribution of predictor variables of all the grids by region, analyses show that ERC is the major contributor accounting for 14%–27% to large burned areas in the western US. In contrast, there is no leading factor contributing to large burned areas in the eastern US, although large‐scale circulation patterns featuring less active upper‐level ridge‐trough and low RH two months earlier in winter contribute relatively more to large burned areas in spring in the southeastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Effects of Correlated Errors on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

As thermal errors are reduced instrumental and troposphere correlated errors will increasingly become more important. Work in progress shows that troposphere covariance error models improve data analysis results. We expect to see stronger effects with higher data rates. Temperature modeling of delay errors may further reduce temporal correlations in the data.

thermal errors↗

DOE OSTI2017

Spatiotemporal modeling of ecological and sociological predictors of West Nile virus in Suffolk County, NY, mosquitoes

Abstract Suffolk County, New York, is a locus for West Nile virus ( WNV ) infection in the American northeast that includes the majority of Long Island to the east of New York City. The county has a system of light and gravid traps used for mosquito collection and disease monitoring. In order to identify predictors of WNV incidence in mosquitoes and predict future occurrence of WNV , we have developed a spatiotemporal Bayesian model, beginning with over 40 ecological, meteorological, and built‐environment covariates. A mixed‐effects model including spatially and temporally correlated errors was fit to WNV surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 using the R package “R‐INLA,” which allows for Bayesian modeling using the stochastic partial differential equation ( SPDE ) approach. The integrated nested Laplace approximation ( INLA ) SPDE allows for simultaneous fitting of a temporal parameter and a spatial covariance, while incorporating a variety of likelihood functions and running in R statistical software on a home computer. We found that land cover classified as open water and woody wetlands had a negative association with WNV incidence in mosquitoes, and the count of septic systems was associated with an increase in WNV . Mean temperature at two‐week lag was associated with a strong positive impact, while mean precipitation at no lag and one‐week lag was associated with positive and negative impacts on WNV , respectively. Incorporation of spatiotemporal factors resulted in a marked increase in model goodness‐of‐fit. The predictive power of the model was evaluated on 2015 surveillance results, where the best model achieved a sensitivity of 80.9% and a specificity of 77.0%. The spatial covariate was mapped across the county, identifying a gradient of WNV prevalence increasing from east to west. The Bayesian spatiotemporal model improves upon previous approaches, and we recommend the INLA SPDE methodology as an efficient way to develop robust models from surveillance data to develop and enhance monitoring and control programs. Our study confirms previously found associations between weather conditions and WNV and suggests that wetland cover has a mitigating effect on WNV infection in mosquitoes, while high septic system density is associated with an increase in WNV infection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Energy release topology in a multiple-loop solar flare

The temporal and spatial structures of the UV and X-ray emissions and the magnetic field configuration in the November 12, 1980 flare observed from SMM have been studied. The UV observations were done in the O V and Fe XXI lines with a spatial resolution of 10 arcsec. The observations show that the impulsive UV bursts, and also the hard X-ray bursts by their temporal correlation with the impulsive O V emission, occurred in small localized kernels. By comparing the O V, Fe XXI, and X-ray raster images of the flare with the magnetogram, these emission kernels were identified as footpoints of interacting magnetic flux loops. The temporal evolution of the O V/Fe XXI emission shows that there was considerable preheating in the flare plasma some 8-9 minutes prior to the onset of the main hard X-ray bursts. The results are interpreted as indicating that the primary flare energy release occurred in a highly sheared multiloop structure, which lies along a magnetic neutral line. By either beam particle propagation or convective motion, flare energy is transported via a common footpoint to another loop which brightened later. The preheating of the flare plasma is shown to create a more favorable environment for energetic particle acceleration which resulted in the main impulsive hard X-ray bursts.

Cheng, C.-C.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Hierarchical Star Formation in Turbulent Media: Evidence from Young Star Clusters

We present an analysis of the positions and ages of young star clusters in eight local galaxies to investigate the connection between the age difference and separation of cluster pairs. We find that star clusters do not form uniformly but instead are distributed so that the age difference increases with the cluster pair separation to the 0.25–0.6 power, and that the maximum size over which star formation is physically correlated ranges from ∼200 pc to ∼1 kpc. The observed trends between age difference and separation suggest that cluster formation is hierarchical both in space and time: clusters that are close to each other are more similar in age than clusters born further apart. The temporal correlations between stellar aggregates have slopes that are consistent with predictions of turbulence acting as the primary driver of star formation. The velocity associated with the maximum size is proportional to the galaxy’s shear, suggesting that the galactic environment influences the maximum size of the star-forming structures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage into a Land Surface Model: Evaluation 1 and Potential Value for Drought Monitoring in Western and Central Europe

A land surface model s ability to simulate states (e.g., soil moisture) and fluxes (e.g., runoff) is limited by uncertainties in meteorological forcing and parameter inputs as well as inadequacies in model physics. In this study, anomalies of terrestrial water storage (TWS) observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model in western and central Europe for a 7-year period, using a previously developed ensemble Kalman smoother. GRACE data assimilation led to improved runoff correlations with gauge data in 17 out of 18 hydrological basins, even in basins smaller than the effective resolution of GRACE. Improvements in root zone soil moisture were less conclusive, partly due to the shortness of the in situ data record. In addition to improving temporal correlations, GRACE data assimilation also reduced increasing trends in simulated monthly TWS and runoff associated with increasing rates of precipitation. GRACE assimilated root zone soil moisture and TWS fields exhibited significant changes in their dryness rankings relative to those without data assimilation, suggesting that GRACE data assimilation could have a substantial impact on drought monitoring. Signals of drought in GRACE TWS correlated well with MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data in most areas. Although they detected the same droughts during warm seasons, drought signatures in GRACE derived TWS exhibited greater persistence than those in NDVI throughout all seasons, in part due to limitations associated with the seasonality of vegetation.

Li, Bailing↗

NASA NTRS2021

Constraining particle acceleration in Sgr A? with simultaneous GRAVITY, Spitzer, NuSTAR, and Chandra observations

We report the time-resolved spectral analysis of a bright near-infrared and moderate X-ray flare of Sgr A⋆. We obtained light curves in the M, K, and H bands in the mid- and near-infrared and in the 2 − 8 keV and 2 − 70 keV bands in the X-ray. The observed spectral slope in the near-infrared band is νLν ∝ ν0.5 ± 0.2; the spectral slope observed in the X-ray band is νLν ∝ ν−0.7 ± 0.5. Using a fast numerical implementation of a synchrotron sphere with a constant radius, magnetic field, and electron density (i.e., a one-zone model), we tested various synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton scenarios. The observed near-infrared brightness and X-ray faintness, together with the observed spectral slopes, pose challenges for all models explored. We rule out a scenario in which the near-infrared emission is synchrotron emission and the X-ray emission is synchrotron self-Compton. Two realizations of the one-zone model can explain the observed flare and its temporal correlation: one-zone model in which the near-infrared and X-ray luminosity are produced by synchrotron self-Compton and a model in which the luminosity stems from a cooled synchrotron spectrum. Both models can describe the mean spectral energy distribution (SED) and temporal evolution similarly well. In order to describe the mean SED, both models require specific values of the maximum Lorentz factor γmax, which differ by roughly two orders of magnitude. The synchrotron self-Compton model suggests that electrons are accelerated to γmax ∼ 500, while cooled synchrotron model requires acceleration up to γmax ∼ 5 × 104. The synchrotron self-Compton scenario requires electron densities of 1010 cm−3 that are much larger than typical ambient densities in the accretion flow. Furthermore, it requires a variation of the particle density that is inconsistent with the average mass-flow rate inferred from polarization measurements and can therefore only be realized in an extraordinary accretion event. In contrast, assuming a source size of 1 RS, the cooled synchrotron scenario can be realized with densities and magnetic fields comparable with the ambient accretion flow. For both models, the temporal evolution is regulated through the maximum acceleration factor γmax, implying that sustained particle acceleration is required to explain at least a part of the temporal evolution of the flare.

R. Abuter↗

DOE OSTI2021

Large gradients via correlation in random parameterized quantum circuits

Scaling of variational quantum algorithms to large problem sizes requires efficient optimization of random parameterized quantum circuits. For such circuits with uncorrelated parameters, the presence of exponentially vanishing gradients in cost function landscapes is an obstacle to optimization by gradient descent methods. In this work, we prove that reducing the dimensionality of the parameter space by utilizing circuit modules containing spatially or temporally correlated gate layers can allow one to circumvent the vanishing gradient phenomenon. Here, examples are drawn from random separable circuits and asymptotically optimal variational versions of Grover's algorithm based on the quantum alternating operator ansatz. In the latter scenario, our bounds on cost function variation imply a transition between vanishing gradients and efficient trainability as the number of layers is increased toward $\mathcal{O}\left({2}^{n/2}\right)$, the optimal oracle complexity of quantum unstructured search.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2015

THE EFFECT OF INTERPLANETARY SCINTILLATION ON EPOCH OF REIONIZATION POWER SPECTRA

Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) induces intensity fluctuations in small angular size astronomical radio sources via the distortive effects of spatially and temporally varying electron density associated with outflows from the Sun. These radio sources are a potential foreground contaminant signal for redshifted HI emission from the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) because they yield time-dependent flux density variations in bright extragalactic point sources. Contamination from foreground continuum sources complicates efforts to discriminate the cosmological signal from other sources in the sky. In IPS, at large angles from the Sun applicable to EoR observations, weak scattering induces spatially and temporally correlated fluctuations in the measured flux density of sources in the field, potentially affecting the detectability of the EoR signal by inducing non-static variations in the signal strength. In this work, we explore the impact of interplanetary weak scintillation on EoR power spectrum measurements, accounting for the instrumental spatial and temporal sampling. We use published power spectra of electron density fluctuations and parameters of EoR experiments to derive the IPS power spectrum in the wavenumber phase space of EoR power spectrum measurements. The contrast of IPS power to expected cosmological power is used as a metric to assess the impact of IPS. We show that IPS has a spectral structure different from power from foregrounds alone, but the additional leakage into the EoR observation parameter space is negligible under typical IPS conditions, unless data are used from deep within the foreground contamination region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Anomalous cluster detection in spatiotemporal meteorological fields

Finding anomalous regions in spatiotemporal climate data is an important problem with a need for greater accuracy. The collective and contextual nature of anomalies (e.g., heat waves) coupled with the real‐valued, seasonal, multimodal, highly correlated, and gridded nature of climate variable observations poses a multitude of challenges. Existing anomaly detection methods have limitations in the specific setting of real‐valued areal spatiotemporal data. In this paper, we develop a method for extreme event detection in meteorological datasets that follows from well known distribution‐based anomaly detection approaches. The method models spatial and temporal correlations explicitly through a piecewise parametric assumption and generalizes the Mahalanobis distance across distributions of different dimensionalities. The result is an effective method to mine contiguous spatiotemporal anomalous regions from meteorological fields which improves upon the current standard approach in climatology. The proposed method has been evaluated on a real global surface temperature dataset and validated using historical records of extreme events.

Ramachandra, Bharathkumar↗

DOE OSTI2023

Constraining High-energy Neutrino Emission from Supernovae with IceCube

Core-collapse supernovae are a promising potential high-energy neutrino source class. We test for correlation between seven years of IceCube neutrino data and a catalog containing more than 1000 core-collapse supernovae of types IIn and IIP and a sample of stripped-envelope supernovae. We search both for neutrino emission from individual supernovae as well as for combined emission from the whole supernova sample, through a stacking analysis. No significant spatial or temporal correlation of neutrinos with the cataloged supernovae was found. All scenarios were tested against the background expectation and together yield an overall p-value of 93%; therefore, they show consistency with the background only. The derived upper limits on the total energy emitted in neutrinos are 1.7 × 10 48 erg for stripped-envelope supernovae, 2.8 × 10 48 erg for type IIP, and 1.3 × 10 49 erg for type IIn SNe, the latter disfavoring models with optimistic assumptions for neutrino production in interacting supernovae. We conclude that stripped-envelope supernovae and supernovae of type IIn do not contribute more than 14.6% and 33.9%, respectively, to the diffuse neutrino flux in the energy range of about [ 10 3 –10 5 ] GeV, assuming that the neutrino energy spectrum follows a power-law with an index of –2.5. Under the same assumption, we can only constrain the contribution of type IIP SNe to no more than 59.9%. Thus, core-collapse supernovae of types IIn and stripped-envelope supernovae can both be ruled out as the dominant source of the diffuse neutrino flux under the given assumptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗