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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Permafrost, Peatland, and Cropland Regions Are Key to Reconciling North American Carbon Sink Estimates

Persistent discrepancies between bottom-up, terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), and top-down, atmospheric inversions, have made it difficult to quantify the magnitude of the North American terrestrial carbon sink. Previous studies have compared aggregated continent-scale estimates of carbon fluxes from TBMs and inversions for all of North America, but this provides limited insights into finer-scale mismatches that contribute to the overall discrepancies. Here we evaluate agreement between TBM and inversion carbon flux estimates at 1° × 1° resolution to provide more direct insights into where models disagree and what underlying factors drive discrepancies. We find that the additional carbon uptake estimated by inversions, in just 16% of the area of North America, is large enough to account for the discrepancy between TBMs and inversions across the whole continent. The majority of these differences occur in permafrost, peatland, and cropland regions. In these regions, we find a higher likelihood of potential biases in the weaker sink estimates from TBMs, suggesting that the stronger sink implied by inversions is more likely to be realistic. However, the current observational coverage is insufficient for fully assessing the causes of discrepancies or the magnitude of biases in either approach. Encouragingly, improved representation of agricultural processes in a TBM led to better agreement with inversions in croplands. Efforts to accurately model cropland dynamics will help improve agreement between TBMs and inversions. Overall, this work presents a clear path for reconciling the discrepancies between inversion and TBM estimates of the North American carbon sink that have persisted for two decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observed declines in leaf nitrogen explained by photosynthetic acclimation to CO 2

Widespread evidence of decreasing leaf nutrients has raised concerns about ecosystem productivity under global change. Interpreting trends in leaf nutrients has important implications for the fate of ecosystem services, particularly the role of forests in mitigating climate change and sustaining quality food sources. Here, we challenge the common interpretation that decreasing leaf nitrogen concentration (LNC) is evidence of increasing nutrient limitations on ecosystem primary productivity. Instead, we show that declines in LNC (4% decrease per 50 ppm CO 2 increase), observed across 409 European forest plots over 22 y, can be explained by reduced photosynthetic nitrogen demand. This regional trend is consistent with leaf acclimation to increasing atmospheric CO 2 according to optimality theory. This finding suggests that enhanced photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency due to CO 2 fertilization may lead to less nitrogen uptake and/or reallocation of nitrogen for plant growth and other functions. Our results have large implications for understanding and simulating interactions between ecosystem nitrogen and carbon cycles and suggest nitrogen requirements for terrestrial carbon uptake under elevated CO 2 may be lower than previously thought.

CO2 fertilization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska

Seasonal variations in high-latitude terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes are predominantly driven by air temperature and radiation. At present, high-latitude net C uptake is largest during the summer. Recent observations and modeling studies have demonstrated that ongoing and projected climate change will increase plant productivity, microbial respiration, and growing season lengths at high-latitudes, but impacts on high-latitude C cycle seasonality (and potential feedbacks to the climate system) remain uncertain. Here we use ecosys, a well-tested and process-rich mechanistic ecosystem model that we evaluate further in this study, to explore how climate warming under an RCP8.5 scenario will shift C cycle seasonality in Alaska throughout the 21st century. The model successfully reproduced recently reported large high-latitude C losses during the fall and winter and yet still predicts a high-latitude C sink, pointing to a resolution of the current conflict between process-model and observation-based estimates of high-latitude C balance. We find that warming will result in surprisingly large changes in net ecosystem exchange (NEE; defined as negative for uptake) seasonality, with spring net C uptake overtaking summer net C uptake by year 2100. This shift is driven by a factor of 3 relaxation of spring temperature limitation to plant productivity that results in earlier C uptake and a corresponding increase in magnitude of spring NEE from –19 to –144 gC m –2 season –1 by the end of the century. Although a similar relaxation of temperature limitation will occur in the fall, radiation limitation during those months will limit increases in C fixation. Additionally, warmer soil temperatures and increased carbon inputs from plants lead to combined fall and winter C losses (163 gC m –2 ) that are larger than summer net uptake (123 gC m –2 season –1 ) by year 2100. However, this increase in microbial activity leads to more rapid N cycling and increased plant N uptake during the fall and winter months that supports large increases in spring NPP. Due to the large increases in spring net C uptake, the high-latitude atmospheric C sink is projected to sustain throughout this century. Our analysis disentangles the effects of key environmental drivers of high-latitude seasonal C balances as climate changes over the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing carbon storage capacity and saturation across six central US grasslands using data–model integration

Abstract. Future global changes will impact carbon (C) fluxes and pools in most terrestrial ecosystems and the feedback of terrestrial carbon cycling to atmospheric CO2. Determining the vulnerability of C in ecosystems to future environmental change is thus vital for targeted land management and policy. The C capacity of an ecosystem is a function of its C inputs (e.g., net primary productivity – NPP) and how long C remains in the system before being respired back to the atmosphere. The proportion of C capacity currently stored by an ecosystem (i.e., its C saturation) provides information about the potential for long-term C pools to be altered by environmental and land management regimes. We estimated C capacity, C saturation, NPP, and ecosystem C residence time in six US grasslands spanning temperature and precipitation gradients by integrating high temporal resolution C pool and flux data with a process-based C model. As expected, NPP across grasslands was strongly correlated with mean annual precipitation (MAP), yet C residence time was not related to MAP or mean annual temperature (MAT). We link soil temperature, soil moisture, and inherent C turnover rates (potentially due to microbial function and tissue quality) as determinants of carbon residence time. Overall, we found that intermediates between extremes in moisture and temperature had low C saturation, indicating that C in these grasslands may trend upwards and be buffered against global change impacts. Hot and dry grasslands had greatest C saturation due to both small C inputs through NPP and high C turnover rates during soil moisture conditions favorable for microbial activity. Additionally, leaching of soil C during monsoon events may lead to C loss. C saturation was also high in tallgrass prairie due to frequent fire that reduced inputs of aboveground plant material. Accordingly, we suggest that both hot, dry ecosystems and those frequently disturbed should be subject to careful land management and policy decisions to prevent losses of C stored in these systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A tale of two extremes: Temperature sensitivity of carbon loss from cool and hot soils

Soils represent the largest terrestrial carbon (C) pool, and the flux of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soils to the atmosphere is ~ 6-10 times more than anthropogenic emissions. Understanding responses of soil CO 2 emissions to warming is crucial for evaluating feedback to ongoing environmental changes. The relationship between microbial respiration and temperature is typically modeled using a Q 10 function. Generally, observations of the apparent Q 10 of soil respiration are higher for cold vs. warm ecosystems, reflecting expected biophysical controls of Arrhenius kinetics. However, results from two field warming experiments in the tropics contradict this expectation, both observing extraordinarily high soil respiration responses to in situ warming. Our overall objective for the proposed work is to reduce uncertainty in temperature sensitivity of soil C loss by systematically synthesizing underlying mechanisms related to soil C turnover and stabilization. We are evaluating the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in ecosystems across temperature extremes (e.g., arctic/boreal and tropical systems) by integrating data collected from field warming experiments with machine learning and biogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Carbonate Globules from Spitsbergen, Norway: Terrestrial Analogs of the Carbonates in Martian Meteorite ALH84001?

Pleistocene volcanic centers in NW Spitsbergen, Norway host one of the world's richest occurrences of mantle xenoliths. The xenoliths comprise varieties of spinel lherzolites and pyroxenites. Some of these xenoliths (and their host basalts) contain 10-100 micrometer globules of ankedtic-magnesitic carbonates (AMC). In composition, mineralogy and petrology the AMC globules from Spitsbergen are strikingly similar to the carbonate globules in ALH84001. The AMC globules occur within interstitial quenched glass and as fracture fillings, although we have not seen replacement fabrics analogous to carbonate rosettes replacing glass in ALH84001. Siderite/ankerite forms the core of these concentrically zoned globules while rims are predominantly magnesite. Clay minerals can occasionally be found within and around the globules. Aside from the clay minerals, the principal mineralogical difference between the AMCs and the ALH84001 carbonate rosettes is the presence of concentrated zones of nanophase magnetite in the rosettes, notably absent in the AMCs. However, carbonate globules containing nanophase magnetite have been produced inorganically by hydrothermal precipitation of carbonates and subsequent heating. We heated Spitsbergen AMC at 585 C in a reducing atmosphere to determine whether magnetite could be produced. Optical micrographs of the heated Spitsbergen AMC show dark concentric zones within the AMC. High resolution SEM images of those areas reveal 150-200 nm euhedral crystals that exhibit various morphologies including octahedra and elongated prisms. EDS analyses of areas where the crystals occur contain Fe, O, and minor Si, and P. However, the probe integrates over volumes of material, which also include the surrounding matrix. We have begun TEM observations of both the heated and unheated Spitsbergen AMC to characterize the microstructures of the carbonates, establish the presence/absence of magnetite and determine the relationship of the clay minerals to the carbonates and host rock.

De, Subarnarek↗
NASA NTRS1983

Interstellar carbon in meteorites

The Murchison and Allende chondrites contain up to 5 parts per million carbon that is enriched in carbon-13 by up to +1100 per mil (the ratio of carbon-12 to carbon-13 is approximately 42, compared to 88 to 93 for terrestrial carbon). This 'heavy' carbon is associated with neon-22 and with anomalous krypton and xenon showing the signature of the s-process (neutron capture on a slow time scale). It apparently represents interstellar grains ejected from late-type stars. A second anomalous xenon component ('CCFXe') is associated with a distinctive, light carbon (depleted in carbon-13 by 38 per mil), which, however, falls within the terrestrial range and hence may be of either local or exotic origin.

Swart, P. K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biome-scale temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration revealed by atmospheric CO2 observations

Abstract The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration regulates how the terrestrial carbon sink responds to a warming climate but has been difficult to constrain observationally beyond the plot scale. Here we use observations of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations from a network of towers together with carbon flux estimates from state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to characterize the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration, as represented by the Arrhenius activation energy, over various North American biomes. We infer activation energies of 0.43 eV for North America and 0.38 eV to 0.53 eV for major biomes therein, which are substantially below those reported for plot-scale studies (approximately 0.65 eV). This discrepancy suggests that sparse plot-scale observations do not capture the spatial-scale dependence and biome specificity of the temperature sensitivity. We further show that adjusting the apparent temperature sensitivity in model estimates markedly improves their ability to represent observed atmospheric CO 2 variability. This study provides observationally constrained estimates of the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration directly at the biome scale and reveals that temperature sensitivities at this scale are lower than those based on earlier plot-scale studies. These findings call for additional work to assess the resilience of large-scale carbon sinks to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Virus ecology and 7‐year temporal dynamics across a permafrost thaw gradient

Abstract Soil microorganisms are pivotal in the global carbon cycle, but the viruses that affect them and their impact on ecosystems are less understood. In this study, we explored the diversity, dynamics, and ecology of soil viruses through 379 metagenomes collected annually from 2010 to 2017. These samples spanned the seasonally thawed active layer of a permafrost thaw gradient, which included palsa, bog, and fen habitats. We identified 5051 virus operational taxonomic units (vOTUs), doubling the known viruses for this site. These vOTUs were largely ephemeral within habitats, suggesting a turnover at the vOTU level from year to year. While the diversity varied by thaw stage and depth‐related patterns were specific to each habitat, the virus communities did not significantly change over time. The abundance ratios of virus to host at the phylum level did not show consistent trends across the thaw gradient, depth, or time. To assess potential ecosystem impacts, we predicted hosts in silico and found viruses linked to microbial lineages involved in the carbon cycle, such as methanotrophy and methanogenesis. This included the identification of viruses of Candidatus Methanoflorens, a significant global methane contributor. We also detected a variety of potential auxiliary metabolic genes, including 24 carbon‐degrading glycoside hydrolases, six of which are uniquely terrestrial. In conclusion, these long‐term observations enhance our understanding of soil viruses in the context of climate‐relevant processes and provide opportunities to explore their role in terrestrial carbon cycling.

Microbiology↗
NASA NTRS2017

New Data-Driven Estimation of Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes in Asia Using a Standardized Database of Eddy Covariance Measurements, Remote Sensing Data, and Support Vector Regression

The lack of a standardized database of eddy covariance observations has been an obstacle for data-driven estimation of terrestrial carbon dioxide fluxes in Asia. In this study, we developed such a standardized database using 54 sites from various databases by applying consistent postprocessing for data-driven estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE). Data-driven estimation was conducted by using a machine learning algorithm: support vector regression (SVR), with remote sensing data for 2000 to 2015 period. Site-level evaluation of the estimated carbon dioxide fluxes shows that although performance varies in different vegetation and climate classifications, GPP and NEE at 8 days are reproduced (e.g., r (exp 2) =0.73 and 0.42 for 8 day GPP and NEE). Evaluation of spatially estimated GPP with Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 sensor-based Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence shows that monthly GPP variations at subcontinental scale were reproduced by SVR (r (exp 2)=1.00, 0.94, 0.91, and 0.89 for Siberia, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively). Evaluation of spatially estimated NEE with net atmosphere-land carbon dioxide fluxes of Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Level 4A product shows that monthly variations of these data were consistent in Siberia and East Asia; meanwhile, inconsistency was found in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, differences in the land carbon dioxide fluxes from SVR-NEE and GOSAT Level 4A were partially explained by accounting for the differences in the definition of land carbon dioxide fluxes. These data-driven estimates can provide a new opportunity to assess carbon dioxide fluxes in Asia and evaluate and constrain terrestrial ecosystem models.

chlorophyll fluorescence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sequential Abiotic-Biotic Processes Drive Organic Carbon Transformation in Peat Bogs

Peatlands, which store one-third of the terrestrial carbon (C), are subject to large disturbances under a changing climate. It is crucial to understand how microbial and physiochemical factors affect the vulnerability of these large C stores to predict climate induced greenhouse gas fluxes. Here, we used a combination of mass spectrometry and spectroscopy techniques, to understand sequential biotic and abiotic degradation pathways of Sphagnum fallax leachate in an anaerobic incubation experiment, in the presence and absence of microorganisms. Removal of microorganisms was carried out by passing aqueous samples through 0.2 µm filters. In this work, our results revealed that Sphagnum fallax leachate degradation by abiotic reactions is a significant contributor to CO 2 production. Further, abiotic factors, such as low pH, are responsible for partial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) degradation that produces bioavailable compounds that shift microbial metabolic pathways and stimulate respiration in peat bogs. Acid-catalyzed hydrolysis of Sphagnum-produced glycosides can provide the microbial communities with glucose and stimulate microbial respiration of DOC to CO 2 . These results, while unique to peatlands, demonstrate the importance and underscore the complexity of sequential abiotic and biotic processes on C cycling in peat bogs. It is therefore crucial to incorporate abiotic degradation and sequential below-ground biotic and abiotic interactions into climate models for a better prediction of the influence of climate change on DOC stability in peatlands. These findings might not be representative of other ecosystems with different environmental conditions including mineral-rich peatlands and plant matter in surface peat horizons that comprise discrete microbial populations, and DOC composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Functional Genomics, Transcriptomics, and Proteomics Reveal Distinct Combat Strategies Between Lineages of Wood-Degrading Fungi With Redundant Wood Decay Mechanisms

Wood-degrading fungi vary in their strategies for deconstructing wood, and their competitive successes shape the rate and fate of carbon released from wood, Earth’s largest pool of aboveground terrestrial carbon. In this study, one-on-one interspecific interactions between two model brown rot (carbohydrate-selective) fungi, Gloeophyllum trabeum and Rhodonia (Postia) placenta, were studied on wood wafers where a clearly resolved interaction zone (IZ) could be generated, reproducibly. Comparative RNAseq and proteomics between the IZ and non-interacting hyphae of each species identified combative strategies for each fungus. Glycoside hydrolases were a relatively smaller portion of the interaction secretome compared to non-interacting hyphae. The interaction zone showed higher pectinase specific activity than all other sampling locations, and higher laminarinase specific activity (branched ß-glucan proxy) was seen in the IZ secretome relative to equivalent hyphae in single-species cultures. Our efforts also identified two distinct competitive strategies in these two fungi with a shared nutritional mode (brown rot) but polyphyletic ancestral lineages. Gloeophyllum trabeum (Gloeophyllum clade) employed secondary metabolite (SM) synthesis in response to a competitor, as shown by the upregulation of several SM-synthesizing genes in the interaction. R. placenta (Antrodia clade) instead upregulated a larger variety of uncharacterized oxidoreductases in interacting hyphae, suggesting that an oxidative burst may be a response to competitors in this fungus. Both species produced several hypothetical proteins exclusively in the interaction zone, leaving abundant unknowns on the battlefield. This work supports the existence of multiple interaction strategies among brown rot fungi and highlights the functional diversity among wood decay fungi.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Net Carbon Flux due to Deforestation and Forest Re-Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Analysis using a Process-Based Model

We developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling, and land cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (non-flooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study of the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging, and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970-1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of approx. 0.35 PgC/yr (1PgC = 1 x 10(exp I5) gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of approx. 7 PgC from 1970- 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989-1 998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared to the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by approx. 1 PgC from 1970-1998, while different assumptions about land cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).

Hirsch, A. I.↗
NASA NTRS2021

J. E. Nichols and D. M. Peteet reply

The quantification of northern peatland carbon stocks is vital to our understanding of the global carbon cycle, and we welcome the opportunity to respond to the comments submitted in the preceding “Matters Arising” (Yu et al., Ratcliffe et al.). In response to Yu et al., we provide additional clarification of how data from the Neotoma Paleoecological Database (NPD) are stored and used. We also repeated our quantification of northern peat carbon stocks using only radiocarbon data vetted by other publications. However, our conclusions are unchanged by the elimination of the additional data. We respond to Ratcliffe et al. by addressing the conflict between the “time-history” and “inventory methods.” We calculated northern peatland carbon stocks by the inventory method using our dataset and carefully quantify the uncertainties. We find that while the mean values for carbon stock differ by twofold, the uncertainties around those means are larger than previously acknowledged and are overlapping. This result emphasizes the need for continued work by the carbon cycle science community to understand and quantify uncertainty in terrestrial carbon stock estimates.

Peatlands↗
NASA NTRS2018

Carbon-Nitrogen Coupling Under Three Schemes of Model Representation: A Traceability Analysis

The interaction between terrestrial carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles has been incorporated into more and more land surface models. However, the scheme of C-N coupling differs greatly among models, and how these diverse representations of C-N interactions will affect C-cycle modeling remains unclear. In this study, we explored how the simulated ecosystem C storage capacity in the terrestrial ecosystem (TECO) model varied with three different commonly used schemes of C-N coupling. The three schemes (SM1, SM2, and SM3) have been used in three different coupled C-N models (i.e., TECO-CN, CLM 4.5, and O-CN, respectively). They differ mainly in the stoichiometry of C and N in vegetation and soils, plant N uptake strategies, down regulation of photosynthesis, and the pathways of N import. We incorporated the three C-N coupling schemes into the C-only version of the TECO model and evaluated their impacts on the C cycle with a traceability framework. Our results showed that all three of the C-N schemes caused significant reductions in steady-state C storage capacity compared with the C-only version with magnitudes of −23%, −30%, and −54% for SM1, SM2, and SM3, respectively. This reduced C storage capacity was mainly derived from the combined effects of decreases in net primary productivity (NPP; −29%, −15%, and −45%) and changes in mean C residence time (MRT; 9%, −17%, and −17%) for SM1, SM2, and SM3, respectively. The differences in NPP are mainly attributed to the different assumptions on plant N uptake, plant tissue C : N ratio, down regulation of photosynthesis, and biological N fixation. In comparison, the alternative representations of the plant vs. microbe competition strategy and the plant N uptake, combined with the flexible C : N ratio in vegetation and soils, led to a notable spread in MRT. These results highlight the fact that the diverse assumptions on N processes represented by different C-N coupled models could cause additional uncertainty for land surface models. Understanding their difference can help us improve the capability of models to predict future biogeochemical cycles of terrestrial ecosystems.

Du, Zhenggang↗
DOE OSTI2026

Continental-scale integration of soil metagenomes and organic matter chemistry reveals ubiquitous microbial capacity for chemically-recalcitrant carbon decomposition

Soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition by microorganisms is a major uncertainty in predicting terrestrial carbon–atmosphere feedbacks, partly because we lack understanding of the microbial diversity involved in depolymerizing different carbon pools across environmental gradients. We address this gap using a continental-scale dataset pairing shotgun metagenomes with high-resolution SOM chemistry, assembling 0.76 Tbp of prokaryotic MAGs (828 genomes) and identifying 66,727 SOM molecules from 47 standardized U.S. soil cores selected using respiration rates from 106 soils. Integrating these datasets reveals widespread microbial potential for depolymerizing chemically-recalcitrant SOM previously considered stable. We uncover complementary metabolic specialization between genera affiliated with two abundant bacterial orders, Rhizobiales and Chthoniobacterales, and an archaeal order, Nitrososphaerales. This metabolic partitioning is consistent across soil depths and activity levels, suggesting coordinated decomposition of complex SOM through distinct but complementary biochemical strategies. The metabolic potential for depolymerization of chemically-recalcitrant compounds is supported by the abundance of these molecules across the soils, as indicated by Fourier-Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry (FTICR-MS), and by flux balance analysis of metabolic models. Our results show that a substantial portion of ostensibly stable SOM remains vulnerable to microbial decomposition, a mechanism not captured in current Earth System Models.

Song, Young C. [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
NASA NTRS1995

The role of tropical deforestation in the global carbon cycle: Spatial and temporal dynamics

'The Role of Tropical Deforestation in the Global Carbon cycle: Spatial and Temporal Dynamics', was a joint project involving the University of New Hampshire, the Marine Biological Laboratory, and the Woods Hole Research Center. The contribution of the Woods Hole Research Center consisted of three tasks: (1) assist University of New Hampshire in determining the net flux of carbon between the Brazilian Amazon and the atmosphere by means of a terrestrial carbon model; (2) address the spatial distribution of biomass across the Amazon Basin; and (3) assist NASA Headquarters in development of a science plan for the Terrestrial Ecology component of the NASA-Brazilian field campaign (anticipated for 1997-2001). Progress on these three tasks is briefly described.

Houghton, R. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models

Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO 2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr –1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm –1 ) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm –1 ), while the carbon–climate feedback over land (–45.1 ± 50.6 PgC °C –1 ) is about 3 times larger than over ocean (–17.2 ± 5.0 PgC °C –1 ). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 °C EgC –1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 °C EgC –1 ) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗