Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “thunderstorm modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Techniques used to identify tornado producing thunderstorms using geosynchronous satellite data

Satellite imagery in the outbreak region in the time prior to and during tornado occurrence was examined in detail to obtain descriptive characteristics of the anvil plume. These characteristics include outflow strength (UMAX), departure of anvil centerline from the storm relative ambient wind (MDA), storm relative ambient wind (SRAW), and maximum surface vorticity (SFCVOR). It is shown that by using satellite derived parameters which characterize the flow field in the anvil region, the occurrence and intensity of tornadoes, which the parent thunderstorm produces, can be identified. Analysis of the censored regression models revealed that the five explanatory variables (UMAX, MDA, SRAW, UMAX-2, and SFCVOR) were all significant predictors in the identification of tornadic intensity of a particular thunderstorm.

Schrab, Kevin J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development and Application of NASA SPoRT’s DustTracker-AI Model for Real-Time Identification and Tracking of Dust in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center developed the DustTracker-AI model for identifying and tracking dust in NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery in a real-time framework. A training dataset consisting of day and night dust cases was gathered over the southwestern consisting of 115 distinct images and over a million dust pixels and 256 million no dust pixels. The dataset was separated into training (60%), testing (20%), and validation (20%). A simple random forest machine learning model was developed originally to overcome the problem of night-time dust detection and has been expanded to a comprehensive day/night model for dust identification and tracking. This physically-based machine-learning approach uses NASA/NOAA GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager infrared imagery as inputs to the model. The model probability of dust output achieves an Area-Under-Curve (AUC) of 0.97 with a standard deviation of 0.04 for dust cases. For images with dust present, the model correctly labels 85% of dust pixels for all dust images in the validation data set. In conjunction with developing the machine-learning model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) partnered with NOAA National Weather Service forecast offices to evaluate the model for utility in weather forecasting operations during the 2021 and 2023 late winter-spring seasons. Preliminary evaluation has indicated the majority of forecasters described the DustTracker-AI probabilities as having added confidence to interpreting the Dust RGB and other satellite products to objectively assess the dust extent and trends and increased the amount of time the dust plume could be tracked into the night as compared to use of the Dust RGB. More recently, SPoRT tested small scale events associated with thunderstorm outflow and burn scars to determine the model’s ability to capture local events. This presentation highlights design of the model, validation/evaluation of model performance, and example cases collected during end user product assessments.

Connor H Welch↗
NASA NTRS1999

Determination of Thunderstorm Anvil Ice Contents and Other Cloud Properties from Satellite Observations of Lightning

The lightning frequency model developed by Baker, Christian and Latham (1995) has been refined and extended, in an effort to provide a more realistic framework from which to examine computationally the relationships that might exist between lightning frequency f (which is now being routinely measured from satellites, using NASA/MSFC devices) and a variety of cloud physical parameters, including precipitation rate, updraught speed and non-precipitating ice content. The charging mechanism incorporated into the model is the non-inductive ice-ice mechanism - involving rebounding collisions between ice crystals and growing graupel pellets - which has achieved significant field, laboratory and modelling support in recent years. Model results indicate the existence of a simple relationship between lightning frequency f and the upward flux of ice crystals into the thunderstorm anvil. It follows that, for a particular situation, one can assign a specific mass of non-precipitating ice to an individual lightning stroke. Therefore it is possible - using satellite measurements of global lightning - to estimate the atmospheric loading of ice crystals in thunderstorm anvils: a parameter of climatological importance. One can also estimate the ice crystal loading associated with more localized storm systems. Early results from this work will be presented, together with further work on the relationships between f and other thundercloud parameters.

Blyth, Alan M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Determination of Thunderstorm Anvil Ice Contents and Other Cloud Properties from Satellite Observations of Lightning

The lightning frequency model developed by Baker, Christian and Latham (1995) has been refined and extended, in an effort to provide a more realistic framework from which to examine computationally the relationships that might exist between lightning frequency f (which is now being routinely measured from satellites, using NASA/MSFC devices) and a variety of cloud physical parameters, including precipitation rate, updraught speed and non-precipitating ice content. Model results indicate the existence of a simple relationship between lightning frequency f and the upward flux of ice crystals into the thunderstorm anvil. It follows that, for a particular situation, one can assign a specific mass of non-precipitating ice to an individual lightning stroke. Therefore it may prove possible - using satellite measurements of global lightning - to estimate the atmospheric loading of ice crystals in thunderstorm anvils: a parameter of climatological importance. Early results from this work are presented, together with further studies of the relationships between f and other thundercloud parameters.

Blyth, Alan M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Orographic enhancement of rainfall over the Congo Basin

Abstract The Congo rainforest located in central equatorial Africa is an important, yet understudied part of the globe surrounded by complex orographic features. A primitive understanding of precipitation processes such as mesoscale convective dynamics magnifies uncertainties in the future climate projections of the hydrological cycle over the Congo. Furthermore, the effects of orography, which is an important forcing for convection and precipitation, are poorly resolved by climate models, and ill‐conceptualized over the Congo. To address this knowledge gap, perturbed orographic forcing experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical model in a high‐resolution convection‐permitting model setup. The model simulated selected dates in November 2014. The thunderstorms and rainfall simulated in the control run for the case study analyzed in this article compared reasonably well to satellite‐derived brightness temperature and rainfall data. The results from this case study show that the dynamical impact of increasing the height of the East African Highlands is the blocking of the lower‐tropospheric tropical easterlies. This weakening of the lower‐tropospheric zonal winds increases the windshear over the Congo Basin resulting in slower propagating, more intense mesoscale convective systems with enhanced rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-learning-based investigation of the variables affecting summertime lightning occurrence over the Southern Great Plains

Lightning is affected by many factors, many of which are not routinely measured, well understood, or accounted for in physical models. Several commonly used machine learning (ML) models have been applied to analyze the relationship between Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in order to identify important variables affecting lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site during the summer months (June, July, August and September) of 2012 to 2020. Testing various ML models, we found that the random forest model is the best predictor among common classifiers. When convective clouds were detected, it predicts lightning occurrence with an accuracy of 76.9 % and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850. Using this model, we further ranked the variables in terms of their effectiveness in nowcasting lightning and identified geometric cloud thickness, rain rate and convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the most effective predictors. The contrast in meteorological variables between no-lightning and frequent-lightning periods was examined for hours with CAPE values conducive to thunderstorm formation. Besides the variables considered for the ML models, surface variables and mid-altitude variables (e.g., equivalent potential temperature and minimum equivalent potential temperature, respectively) have statistically significant contrasts between no-lightning and frequent-lightning hours. For example, the minimum equivalent potential temperature from 700 to 500 hPa is significantly lower during frequent-lightning hours compared with no-lightning hours. Finally, a notable positive relationship between the intracloud (IC) flash fraction and the square root of CAPE ($\sqrt{CAPE}$) was found, suggesting that stronger updrafts increase the height of the electrification zone, resulting in fewer flashes reaching the surface and consequently a greater IC flash fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Hydrologic forecasting requirements for precipitation data from space measurements

The needs for precipitation information in severe storms research and in the operational detection and forecasting of such phenomena are described. The discussion will include thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, and regional and mesoscale numerical models used to analyze and forecast these and other regional scale phenomena.

Hudlow, M. D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test Instrumentation for Acoustic and Pressure Measurements

Ares I Scale Model Acoustic Test (ASMAT) is a 5% scale model test of the Ares I vehicle, launch pad and support structures conducted at MSFC to verify acoustic and ignition environments and evaluate water suppression systems Test design considerations 5% measurements must be scaled to full scale requiring high frequency measurements Users had different frequencies of interest Acoustics: 200 - 2,000 Hz full scale equals 4,000 - 40,000 Hz model scale Ignition Transient: 0 - 100 Hz full scale equals 0 - 2,000 Hz model scale Environment exposure Weather exposure: heat, humidity, thunderstorms, rain, cold and snow Test environments: Plume impingement heat and pressure, and water deluge impingement Several types of sensors were used to measure the environments Different instrument mounts were used according to the location and exposure to the environment This presentation addresses the observed effects of the selected sensors and mount design on the acoustic and pressure measurements

Vargas, Magda B.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Electric field mill network products to improve detection of the lightning hazard

An electric field mill network has been used at Kennedy Space Center for over 10 years as part of the thunderstorm detection system. Several algorithms are currently available to improve the informational output of the electric field mill data. The charge distributions of roughly 50 percent of all lightning can be modeled as if they reduced the charged cloud by a point charge or a point dipole. Using these models, the spatial differences in the lightning induced electric field changes, and a least squares algorithm to obtain an optimum solution, the three-dimensional locations of the lightning charge centers can be located. During the lifetime of a thunderstorm, dynamically induced charging, modeled as a current source, can be located spatially with measurements of Maxwell current density. The electric field mills can be used to calculate the Maxwell current density at times when it is equal to the displacement current density. These improvements will produce more accurate assessments of the potential electrical activity, identify active cells, and forecast thunderstorm termination.

Maier, Launa M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Electric field measurements within a severe thunderstorm anvil

This paper presents the results of electric field measurements made within a severe thunderstorm in central Oklahoma on June 13, 1983. The observations show the electrical structure of a severe storm anvil to be more complex than the simple structure of a positive interior and thin, negative screening layers. Evidence is found of extensive regions of both positive and negative charge in the interior of the anvil, and the thicknesses of screening layers are found to be about an order of magnitude greater than calculated in previous models. A conceptual model for the development of the electrical structure of thunderstorm anvils is proposed in which anvil dynamics plays an important role.

Byrne, G. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of organized convective storms to model grid spacing in current and future climates

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are complexes of thunderstorms that become organized and cover hundreds of kilometres over several hours. MCSs are prolific rain producers in the tropics and mid-latitudes and are the major cause of warm-season flooding. Traditionally, climate models have difficulties in simulating MCSs partly due to the misrepresentation of complex process interactions that operate across a large range of scales. Significant improvements in simulating MCSs have been found in kilometre-scale models that explicitly simulate deep convection. However, these models operate in the grey zone of turbulent motion and have known deficiencies in simulating small-scale processes (e.g. entrainment, vertical mass transport). Here, we perform mid-latitude idealized ensemble MCS simulations under current and future climate conditions in three atmospheric regimes: hydrostatic (12 km horizontal grid spacing; Δx), non-hydrostatic (Δx = 4, 2 and 1 km) and large eddy scale (Δx = 500 m and 250 m). Our results show a dramatic improvement in simulating MCS precipitation, movement, cold pools, and cloud properties when transitioning from 12 km to 4 km Δx. Decreasing Δx beyond 4 km results in modest improvements except for up- and downdraft sizes, average vertical mass fluxes, and cloud top height and temperature, which continue to change. Most important for climate modelling is that Δx = 4 km simulations reliably capture most MCS climate change signals compared to those of the Δx = 250 m runs. Significantly different climate change signals are found in Δx = 12 km runs that overestimate extreme precipitation changes by up to 100%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Development and application of linear and nonlinear methods for interpretation of lightning strikes to in-flight aircraft

Since 1980, NASA has been collecting direct strike lightning data by flying an instrumented F-106B aircraft into thunderstorms. The continuing effort to interpret the measured data is reported here. Both linear and nonlinear finite difference modeling techniques are applied to the problem of lightning triggered by an aircraft in a thunderstorm. Five different aircraft are analyzed to determine the effect of aircraft size and shape on lightning triggering. The effect of lightning channel impedance on aircraft response is investigated. The particle environment in thunderstorms and electric field enhancements by typical ice particles is also investigated.

Rudolph, Terence↗
NASA NTRS1985

Electrical measurements in the atmosphere and the ionosphere over an active thunderstorm. I - Campaign overview and initial ionospheric results

The first simultaneous electric field observations performed in the ionosphere and atmosphere over an active nighttime thunderstorm are reported here. In the stratosphere, typical storm-related dc electric fields were detected from a horizontal distance of about 100 km, and transient electric fields due to lightning were measured at several different altitudes. In the ionosphere and mesosphere, lightning-induced transient electric fields in the range of tens of millivolts per meter were detected with rise times at least as fast as 0.2 ms and typical duration of 10-20 ms. The transients had significant components parallel to the magnetic field at 150 km altitude. This implies that either considerable Joule heating occurs or a collective instability is present because of the high drift velocities induced by the transient electric fields. Copious numbers of whistlers were generated by the storm and were detected above but not below the base of the ionosphere. The outline of a new model for direct whistler wave generation over an active thunderstorm is presented based on these observations. The intensity of the observed two-hop whistlers implies that they were amplified along their propagation path and suggests that particles were precipitated in both hemispheres.

Kelley, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Acoustic radar investigations of boundary layer phenomena

A comparison is made between acoustic radar echoes and conventional meteorological data obtained from the WKY tower, for the purpose of better understanding the relationships between acoustic radar echoes and boundary layer processes. Two thunderstorm outflow cases are presented and compared to both acoustic radar data and Charba's gust front model. The acoustic radar echoes reveal the boundary between warm and cold air and other areas of mixing and strong thermal gradient quite well. The thunderstorm outflow of 27 June 1972 is found to compare with in most respects to Charba's gust front model. The major difference is the complete separation of the head from the main body of cold air, probably caused by erosion of the area behind the head by mixing with the ambient air. Two cases of nocturnal inversions caused by advection of warmer air aloft are presented. It is found that areas of turbulent mixing or strong thermal gradient can be identified quite easily in the acoustic radar record.

Marks, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) for the Earth Observing System

Not only are scientific objectives and instrument characteristics given of a calibrated optical LIS for the EOS but also for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) which was designed to acquire and study the distribution and variability of total lightning on a global basis. The LIS can be traced to a lightning mapper sensor planned for flight on the GOES meteorological satellites. The LIS consists of a staring imager optimized to detect and locate lightning. The LIS will detect and locate lightning with storm scale resolution (i.e., 5 to 10 km) over a large region of the Earth's surface along the orbital track of the satellite, mark the time of occurrence of the lightning, and measure the radiant energy. The LIS will have a nearly uniform 90 pct. detection efficiency within the area viewed by the sensor, and will detect intracloud and cloud-to-ground discharges during day and night conditions. Also, the LIS will monitor individual storms and storm systems long enough to obtain a measure of the lightning flashing rate when they are within the field of view of the LIS. The LIS attributes include low cost, low weight and power, low data rate, and important science. The LIS will study the hydrological cycle, general circulation and sea surface temperature variations, along with examinations of the electrical coupling of thunderstorms with the ionosphere and magnetosphere, and observations and modeling of the global electric circuit.

Christian, Hugh J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Formation of chondrules by electrical discharge heating

A possible mechanism for making chondrules in the solar nebula is electrical discharge ('lightning') heating, which can create high-temperature (greater than 1600 K), short-duration (approximately 10 s) thermal events as indicated by the chondritic record. Lightning occurs in many diverse terrestrial and planetary settings, and may have occurred in the solar nebula; it is thus worthwhile to investigate its implications for chondrule formation. Nebular discharges do not appear a viable source of heat for melting chondrule precursors, regardless of the uncertainty in the details of the mode. Nonetheless, we believe nebular lightning worthy of further investigation than what is presented here. Experiments analogous to those currently underway to investigate terrestrial thunderstorm lightning could be fruitful in refining nebular lightning models, and would be double interesting in application to nonthunderstorm and planetary lightnings.

Love, S. G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Urbanization on Convection, Lightning, and Precipitation Over the Houston Metropolitan Area: Case Study Simulation From the TRACER Campaign

This study investigates the effects of urbanization, specifically land use change and anthropogenic emissions (AE), on convection, lightning, and surface precipitation for a case of summertime sea‐breeze convection observed over the Houston metropolitan area. The unique capabilities of the NASA‐Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model allows us to conduct a series of sensitivity experiments with complex configurations, in particular including multi‐year land model spin‐up simulations, treatment of aerosols and their precursors, and explicit cloud charging and lightning. The simulation results show that urban land use primarily alters the temporal evolution of convection, lightning, and surface precipitation, leading to late afternoon thunderstorm development. The decrease in latent heat flux from the land surface caused by urbanization weakens convection in the early afternoon, while a condition suitable for convection development is maintained in the late afternoon due to less stabilization of the lower troposphere by the weaker convection development and high sensible heat flux from the surface. On the other hand, anthropogenic aerosols directly enhance convection, lightning, and surface precipitation by increasing convective updrafts due to the aerosol‐induced convective invigoration. The combined effects of urban land use and AE lead to even stronger thunderstorms in the late afternoon, mostly consistent with observations. These results indicate that urbanization increases the probability of late afternoon thunderstorms over the Houston area during the summer season. Advanced weather forecasting models that incorporate these urbanization effects might support sustainable urban planning to better mitigate the impacts of urbanization on local weather and public safety.

Iguchi, T. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (U↗
NASA NTRS2013

Analytic Theory of Titans Schumann Resonance: Constraints on Ionospheric Conductivity and Buried Water Ocean

This study presents an approximate model for the atypical Schumann resonance in Titan's atmosphere that accounts for the observations of electromagnetic waves and the measurements of atmospheric conductivity performed with the Huygens Atmospheric Structure and Permittivity, Wave and Altimetry (HASI-PWA) instrumentation during the descent of the Huygens Probe through Titan's atmosphere in January 2005. After many years of thorough analyses of the collected data, several arguments enable us to claim that the Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) wave observed at around 36 Hz displays all the characteristics of the second harmonic of a Schumann resonance. On Earth, this phenomenon is well known to be triggered by lightning activity. Given the lack of evidence of any thunderstorm activity on Titan, we proposed in early works a model based on an alternative powering mechanism involving the electric current sheets induced in Titan's ionosphere by the Saturn's magnetospheric plasma flow. The present study is a further step in improving the initial model and corroborating our preliminary assessments. We first develop an analytic theory of the guided modes that appear to be the most suitable for sustaining Schumann resonances in Titan's atmosphere. We then introduce the characteristics of the Huygens electric field measurements in the equations, in order to constrain the physical parameters of the resonating cavity. The latter is assumed to be made of different structures distributed between an upper boundary, presumably made of a succession of thin ionized layers of stratospheric aerosols spread up to 150 km and a lower quasi-perfect conductive surface hidden beneath the non-conductive ground. The inner reflecting boundary is proposed to be a buried water-ammonia ocean lying at a likely depth of 55-80 km below a dielectric icy crust. Such estimate is found to comply with models suggesting that the internal heat could be transferred upwards by thermal conduction of the crust, while convective processes cannot be ruled out.

TITAN↗