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STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Smart Outlets: Wireless Meter and Control Systems for Plug and Process Loads

Smart outlets control the flow of power to devices plugged into them and measure their energy use. The energy use data can be accessed via an online dashboard or smartphone application, allowing the user to turn power to plug-in devices on or off based on a schedule established in the dashboard or application. This four-page resource is a fact sheet meant to educate commercial building owners on smart outlets: what they are, why we use them, and how to use them in a way that will achieve energy savings while maintaining occupant comfort. The resource also describe how to procure a smart outlet system and how to fully capture their benefits over time. This resource was developed to support the Better Buildings Alliance Plug and Process Loads Technology Research Team.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Optimization strategies for produced water networks with integrated desalination facilities

Optimal management and desalination of produced water is a major challenge for U.S. oil and gas development. Integrating rigorous desalination models into multi-period produced water network optimization problems presents several hurdles, which need to be tackled using advanced optimization strategies. Here, in this work, a novel multi-period produced water network formulation with separate solid and liquid flows is introduced to avoid singularities at zero flows. Rigorous steady state desalination models based on mechanical vapor recompression are embedded at the desalination sites in the network model. An integrated optimization formulation is developed to co-optimize the design of desalination units along with the operation of the network. Furthermore, a more robust approach based on the trust region filter method is developed to efficiently integrate complex desalination models into the multi-period planning problem. Both optimization approaches are demonstrated on a produced water network from the PARETO library (Drouven et al., 2022) using thermal desalination units. Our results show that while the TRF and integrated approaches have comparable solve times, the TRF approach has better performance reliability in terms of solver convergence. Furthermore, the optimal solution obtained by embedding rigorous models into the network is significantly different than when desalination costs are approximated using simple cost models, which motivates further research in this field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

High-Level Synthesis of Parallel Specifications Coupling Static and Dynamic Controllers

The increased need for efficient ways to implement domain-specific accelerators is driving design methodologies towards the use of abstractions higher than the Register Transfer Level (RTL). In this scenario, High Level Synthesis (HLS) plays a significant role by enabling the automatic generation of custom hardware accelerators starting from high level descriptions (e.g., C code). Conventional HLS tools exploit parallelism mostly at the Instruction Level (ILP). They statically schedule the input specifications, and build centralized Finite State Machine (FSM) controllers. However, aggressive exploitation of ILP in many applications has diminishing returns and, usually, centralized approaches do not efficiently exploit coarser parallelism because FSMs are inherently serial. In this paper we present a HLS framework able to synthesize applications that, beside ILP, also expose Task Level Parallelism (TLP). An application can expose TLP through annotations that identify the parallel functions (i.e., tasks). To generate accelerators that efficiently execute concur- rent tasks, we need to solve several issues: devise a mechanism to support concurrent execution flows, exploit memory parallelism, and manage synchronization. To support concurrent execution flows, we introduce a novel adaptive controller. The adaptive controller is composed of a set of interacting control elements that independently manage the execution of a single operation or function call. These control elements check dependencies and resource constraints at runtime, enabling as soon as possible execution. To support parallel access to shared memories and synchronization, we introduce a novel Hierarchical Memory Interface (HMI). With respect to previous solutions, the proposed interface supports multi-ported memories and atomic memory operations, which commonly occur in parallel programming. Our framework can generate the hardware implementation of C functions by employing two different approaches, depending on its characteristics. If a function exposes TLP, then the framework generates hardware implementations based on the adaptive controller. Otherwise, the framework implements the function by exploiting a more conventional FSM approach, which is optimized for ILP exploitation. We evaluate our framework on a set of parallel applications, and show substantial performance improvements (average speedup of 4.7) with limited area over- heads (average area increase of 5.48 times).

Castellana, Vito G.↗

High-Level Synthesis of Parallel Specifications Coupling Static and Dynamic Controllers

The increased need for efficient ways to implement domain-specific accelerators is driving design methodologies towards the use of abstractions higher than the Register Transfer Level (RTL). In this scenario, High Level Synthesis (HLS) plays a significant role by enabling the automatic generation of custom hardware accelerators starting from high level descriptions (e.g., C code). Conventional HLS tools exploit parallelism mostly at the Instruction Level (ILP). They statically schedule the input specifications, and build centralized Finite State Machine (FSM) controllers. However, aggressive exploitation of ILP in many applications has diminishing returns and, usually, centralized approaches do not efficiently exploit coarser parallelism because FSMs are inherently serial. In this paper we present a HLS framework able to synthesize applications that, beside ILP, also expose Task Level Parallelism (TLP). An application can expose TLP through annotations that identify the parallel functions (i.e., tasks). To generate accelerators that efficiently execute concur- rent tasks, we need to solve several issues: devise a mechanism to support concurrent execution flows, exploit memory parallelism, and manage synchronization. To support concurrent execution flows, we introduce a novel adaptive controller. The adaptive controller is composed of a set of interacting control elements that independently manage the execution of a single operation or function call. These control elements check dependencies and resource constraints at runtime, enabling as soon as possible execution. To support parallel access to shared memories and synchronization, we introduce a novel Hierarchical Memory Interface (HMI). With respect to previous solutions, the proposed interface supports multi-ported memories and atomic memory operations, which commonly occur in parallel programming. Our framework can generate the hardware implementation of C functions by employing two different approaches, depending on its characteristics. If a function exposes TLP, then the framework generates hardware implementations based on the adaptive controller. Otherwise, the framework implements the function by exploiting a more conventional FSM approach, which is optimized for ILP exploitation. We evaluate our framework on a set of parallel applications, and show substantial performance improvements (average speedup of 4.7) with limited area over- heads (average area increase of 5.48 times).

Castellana, Vito G.↗

Noncontact Flow Rate Using Laser Ultrasonics

Several types of advanced nuclear reactors are cooled with high-temperature liquid metal or molten salt flows. There is a critical need to measure flow velocity in flow channels for test purposes, and eventually in operational reactors. In conventional ultrasonic flow sensors, ultrasonic waves traveling in both the upstream and downstream directions are generated and detected by transducers that must contact the flow channels. A shift in the frequency or transit time between the two ultrasonic waves is measured to determine flow velocity. We describe here an initial effort to apply that sensing concept when the contact transducers are replaced by laser-based generation and detection instrumentation. This noncontact sensing avoids many practical problems associated with contact transducers when implemented on flow channels at high temperature. Laser-based flow monitoring can also be applied to hot-process piping in the geothermal energy, chemical-processing and petroleum-refining industries. Our effort has included theoretical simulation of noncontact laser-based flow monitoring, indicating capability of measuring flow velocities relevant to reactor cooling. It also included a room-temperature experimental demonstration using water as the flow liquid, and indicating capability of measuring flow velocity at a responsivity roughly consistent with simulation predictions. Plans were made for an experimental demonstration at Oregon State University using liquid metal at 110 degrees C.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Modeling Efforts to Gain Insight into Historical Leak Events from the Single-Shell Tank A-105 in the Hanford 241-A Tank Farm - 20113

The 241-A Tank Farm is a single-shell tank (SST) farm constructed to store process waste from Hanford nuclear operations. Millions of gallons of nuclear waste were stored in the 241-A Tank Farm SSTs and some of the SSTs leaked in the past. In addition, spills and pipeline leaks during transfers and storage and intentional discharges to cribs and trenches resulted in releasing waste to the ground. Tank liner leaks are referred to as 'leaks' and all other discharges to the soil are referred to as 'releases.' Liquid waste that could be removed by pumping has been removed from all of the SSTs to reduce the potential for future leaks. The most significant historical leak event in 241-A Tank Farm occurred in 1965 when tank A-105 experienced a pressurized steam event. This event resulted in damage to the inner steel liner flooring of A-105, which was separated from the sidewalls over part of its circumference and buckled up to 2.5 m, vertically. During this event up to 7,570 L of contaminated liquid may have leaked to the adjacent soil. This leak occurred under extreme temperature and pressure conditions. Modeling efforts to better understand the nature and extent of historical leaks from subsurface SSTs that were used to store highly radioactive, self-boiling liquid wastes at 241-A Tank Farm have recently been undertaken. These efforts have compiled the available historical information to support a preliminary non-isothermal, multiphase flow and chemical transport modeling effort to re-create the conditions under which the leaks occurred and to formulate a conceptual model as to the extent and distribution of leaked radioactive contaminants in the adjacent soil material. The focus of this work was on developing an understanding of the key features, processes and bounding conditions related to tank A-105 leak events that occurred in the 1960's. The activities include estimation of leak composition, non-isothermal multiphase flow and transport modeling, and geochemical modeling. The STOMP{sup C} Water-Air-Energy modeling code was utilized to implement the three-dimensional representation of the subsurface tank and the surrounding flow field. Once constructed, the model was used to evaluate the conceptual understanding of leaks originating from different parts of the tank under the elevated temperature boundary conditions that were imposed by surrounding tanks at the time of the historical leaks. The chemical evolution of the liquid waste was also evaluated as it leaked from the tank under transient pressure and temperature gradients. The results of the preliminary evaluation suggested the presence of a heat-pipe effect beneath tank A-105 in which water vapor at an elevated temperature is driven away from the base of the tank to a position where water vapor cools, condenses and is then drawn back toward the tank by the strong capillary attraction of the dry soil. A non-sorbing contaminant (Tc-99) was introduced into this flow field to better understand the potential distribution patterns of leaked contaminants that may have occurred during the historical leak events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Spectral Analysis of Regular Material Point Method and its Application to Study High Pressure Reverse Osmosis Membrane Compaction and Embossing

Material Point Method (MPM) is gaining widespread interest in applied continuum mechanics. The fact that all the continuum properties are stored on the particles (or material points) and the governing equations are solved on these material points makes MPM extremely suited to problems involving severe material deformations, such as crack propagation, soil movement, and fluid flows. Despite its popularity, only a few studies have focused on the numerical properties of MPM. This presentation introduces a global spectral analysis of the regular material point method. Contrary to previous studies, the analysis focuses on the numerical properties of the method in the spectral space. The amplification factor is derived as a function of the non- dimensional wave numbers. It provides insights into the stability and dissipative properties of the method for various CFL and Fourier numbers. The effect of the grid shape functions, number of particles per cell and their locations inside the grid cell are also analyzed. The EXAGOOP MPM solver (https://github.com/NREL/Exagoop.git) is developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory as a part of the NAWI UHPRO project and is based on the AMReX framework. A single-level, uniform cartesian grid is used as the background mesh, while the particle class in AMReX is used to manage the material point operations. Linear hat and B-splines are used as grid shape functions, while the time integration is performed using explicit Euler time integration. EXAGOOP is both CPU and GPU compatible and has been demonstrated to work well on multiple compute architectures. The performance of EXAGOOP on various computing architectures is presented along with its application to study compaction and embossing of high-pressure reverse osmosis membranes. The MPM solution accurately reproduces the membrane deformation. The deformed pore size and structure simulated using MPM also agree well with experimental SEM images.

material point method↗

STAT7 v1.2 User Guide: The STAT7 Code for Statistical Propagation of Uncertainties in Steady-State Thermal Hydraulics Analysis of Plate-Fueled Reactors

The STAT7 software was developed to perform steady-state, single-phase thermal hydraulics analysis of plate-fueled reactors based on statistical propagation of uncertainties. Application of the software is for non-power research and test reactors, including conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors such as Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor. Since it can be necessary to repeat analysis during fuel reloading, STAT7 accommodates flexibility in analyzing many realistic aspects of reactor fuel management. STAT7 uses a Monte Carlo approach to model uncertainty in common fuel fabrication parameters and other key reactor operating parameters required for thermal hydraulics analyses of research and test reactors. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux, or onset of flow instability. STAT7 supports water properties based on the IAPWS-IF97 functions (The International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam Industrial Formulation 1997 for the Thermodynamic Properties of Water and Steam) in addition to the fit functions. STAT7 predicts axial profiles of fuel, cladding, and coolant temperature along a lateral stripe that runs the full length of the fuel plate from the bottom to the top. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze all of the axial nodes of all of the fuel plates and all of the coolant channels for one latera stripe of a fuel element. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. By running STAT7 multiple times, full core analysis can be performed by analyzing the margin to onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each fuel element in the core.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A moving discontinuous Galerkin finite element method with interface condition enforcement for compressible flows

A variation of moving discontinuous Galerkin finite element method with interface condition enforcement (MDG-ICE) is developed for solving the compressible Euler equations. The MDG-ICE method, originating from the work of Corrigan et al. [1], [2], [3], [4], is based on the space-time DG formulation, where both flow field and grid geometry are considered as independent variables and the conservation laws are enforced both on discrete elements and element interfaces. The element conservation laws are solved in the standard discontinuous solution space to determine conservative quantities, while the interface conservation is enforced using a variational formulation in a continuous space to determine discrete grid geometry. The resulting over-determined system of nonlinear equations arising from the MDG-ICE formulation can then be solved in a least-squares sense, leading to an unconstrained nonlinear least-squares problem that is regularized and solved by Levenberg-Marquardt method. A number of numerical experiments for both 1D unsteady and 2D steady state compressible flow problems are conducted to assess the accuracy and robustness of the MDG-ICE method. Numerical results obtained indicate that the MDG-ICE method is able to implicitly detect and track all types of discontinuities via interface conservation enforcement and satisfy the conservation law on both elements and interfaces via grid movement and grid management, demonstrating that an exponential rate of convergence for Sod and Lax-Harden shock tube problems can be achieved and highly accurate solutions without overheating to both double-rarefaction wave and Noh problems can be obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Watershed response of the Feather River Basin, California, United States of America to future climate changes

Increasing mean annual temperatures under climate change are expected to reduce seasonal snowpack, increase evapotranspiration (ET), and alter summer baseflow in headwater watersheds worldwide. Strong regional variability in hydrologic responses highlights the need for catchment-scale, physically based models to assess future flood risk and water availability. This study examines climate-driven changes in the hydrologic response of the Upper Feather River watershed in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California. Four priority climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to evaluate future hydrologic responses of the watershed. Hydrologic processes are simulated using an objectively calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model for a historical baseline (1986–2005) and a future period 2070–2099), driven by observed and projected precipitation and temperature. Results indicate a declining contribution of snowfall to annual precipitation, with peak snowfall and water yield shifting 1–3 months earlier. Long-term annual maximum flows are projected to increase considerably, whereas low-flow responses are mixed, with both increases and decreases projected by the end of the century. These findings highlight the need for adaptive watershed management to enhance flood protection, water storage, and drought resilience. Future water resource planning should also account for one-to-three-month shifts in peak water yield and surface runoff due to changes in snowmelt timing and a lower snowfall-to-rainfall ratio under climate change. The modeling framework and insights are transferable to other snow-dominated headwater watersheds experiencing climate-driven change.

Tigabu, T [UC Davis]↗

Sensitivity of meteorological-forcing resolution on hydrologic variables

Projecting the spatiotemporal changes in water resources under a no-analog future climate requires physically based integrated hydrologic models which simulate the transfer of water and energy across the earth's surface. These models show promise in the context of unprecedented climate extremes given their reliance on the underlying physics of the system as opposed to empirical relationships. However, these techniques are plagued by several sources of uncertainty, including the inaccuracy of input datasets such as meteorological forcing. These datasets, usually derived from climate models or satellite-based products, are typically only resolved on the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, while hydrologic variables of interest (e.g., discharge and groundwater levels) require a resolution at much smaller scales. In this work, a high-resolution hydrologic model is forced with various resolutions of meteorological forcing (0.5 to 40.5 km) generated by a dynamical downscaling analysis from the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). The Cosumnes watershed, which spans the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley interface of California (USA), exhibits semi-natural flow conditions due to its rare undammed river basin and is used here as a test bed to illustrate potential impacts of various resolutions of meteorological forcing on snow accumulation and snowmelt, surface runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and groundwater levels. Results show that the errors in spatial distribution patterns impact land surface processes and can be delayed in time. Localized biases in groundwater levels can be as large as 5–10 m and 3 m in surface water. Most hydrologic variables reveal that biases are seasonally and spatially dependent, which can have serious implications for model calibration and ultimately water management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity over Time for Degrading Saltstone Vault Concrete - 20376

At the Savannah River Site (SRS), low-level liquid tank waste is mixed with cementitious materials to produce a solid, monolithic waste form referred to as saltstone. The liquid saltstone mixture is pumped into massive concrete structures referred to as saltstone disposal units (SDUs) for curing and long-term storage. SDUs are vaults made of high performance concrete forming a barrier between saltstone and the surrounding environment. Predicting the long-term performance of SDU vault concrete, as well as the saltstone material itself, is critical to understanding the potential releases of radionuclides to the surrounding environment as described in the Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF) performance assessment (PA). The hydraulic conductivity profile for SDU vault concrete was conservatively assumed to degrade linearly from the initial saturated hydraulic conductivity of the intact concrete over a long period of time. The initial hydraulic properties of saturated SDU vault concrete have been measured, and the final hydraulic properties of degraded vault concrete are assumed to be the same as the porous backfill material that will surround the vault after closure. The assumed final condition of the vault concrete is also conservative in that it provides a greater estimate of water penetration through the vault than would generally be expected. Therefore, insights that provide more realistic but conservative estimates as to how degradation processes may change the hydraulic properties of the SDU vault concrete, the time dependent relationship of the vault concrete hydraulic properties to degradation (and thus time), and the final hydraulic properties of the vault concrete provides useful additions to the SDF PA. This paper focuses on the assumption that the saltstone vault concrete saturated hydraulic conductivity would decrease linearly as a function of degradation time; this assumption resulted from a worst-case, weighted (by relative layer thickness), arithmetic average of intact and backfill material hydraulic conductivities representing flow parallel to a layered system. This research indicates that the effective saturated hydraulic conductivity of the degraded SDU vault concrete should be based on the relative thickness-weighted geometric mean of the intact and degraded layers hydraulic conductivities. This alternative, which is supported extensively in the relevant literature and evaluated in this paper, leads to a more realistic and defensible estimate of the effective saturated hydraulic conductivity in degraded vault concrete while remaining conservative. The impact of using the more realistic estimate of the effective saturated hydraulic conductivity for the degraded concrete decreases the effective saturated hydraulic conductivity by up to several orders of magnitude for early times (i.e., when the SDU vault concrete is assumed degraded via sulfate attack and carbonation). This revised estimate of the effective saturated hydraulic conductivity has been implemented in the recently revised SDF PA. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

GOTHIC Aerosol Source Depletion Studies

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory has continued work to develop an aerosol-laden flow modeling capability with the Generation of Thermal Hydraulic Information in Containment (GOTHIC TM ) computer code to perform simulations for thermal hydraulic conditions and aerosol transport and deposition in spent fuel casks. This report describes our recent work to expand our model that was originally developed in 2019 to allow for thermal characterization, carrier gas flow determination, and tracking of particulate behavior throughout the entire canister volume. This was achieved through conversion of decay heat source in all fuel tubes within the model from heaters to thermal conductors in GOTHIC as well as remeshing the internal volume of the canister. These model improvements allowed for simulations of base case scenarios for comparison of similar efforts by our collaborators with alternative tools at Sandia and Oak Ridge. Several characteristics of the GOTHIC code were elucidated by this effort and were documented for consideration in how the code is used for this effort moving forward. For instance, treatment of particle size distributions, initial spatial distributions, mesh gradients, and minimum volume concentrations were identified as important issues for consideration. Ultimately, the current version of the code is capable of tracking temperatures, flow rates, and particle behavior throughout the canister internal volume. This report presents predicted depletion times and preferred deposition patterns within the canister. Additionally, this report documents code performance and insights for further model development and use for comparisons to other codes and for predicting system behavior in experiments being performed and planned by our collaborators.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Experimental observation of localized interfacial phonon modes

Interfaces impede heat flow in micro/nanostructured systems. Conventional theories for interfacial thermal transport were derived based on bulk phonon properties of the materials making up the interface without explicitly considering the atomistic interfacial details, which are found critical to correctly describing thermal boundary conductance. Recent theoretical studies predicted the existence of localized phonon modes at the interface which can play an important role in understanding interfacial thermal transport. However, experimental validation is still lacking. Through a combination of Raman spectroscopy and high-energy-resolution electron energy-loss spectroscopy in a scanning transmission electron microscope, we report the experimental observation of localized interfacial phonon modes at ~12 THz at a high-quality epitaxial Si-Ge interface. These modes are further confirmed using molecular dynamics simulations with a high-fidelity neural network interatomic potential, which also yield thermal boundary conductance agreeing well with that measured in time-domain thermoreflectance experiments. Simulations find that the interfacial phonon modes have an obvious contribution to the total thermal boundary conductance. Our findings significantly contribute to the understanding of interfacial thermal transport physics and have impact on engineering thermal boundary conductance at interfaces in applications such as electronics thermal management and thermoelectric energy conversion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reliability and resilience of environmental flows under uncertainty: reconsidering water year types and inconsistent flow requirements in California

Abstract Environmental water allocation in California is a complex legal process involving various government agencies and stakeholders. E-flow requirements can be based on annual runoff typologies called water year types (WYTs), which dictate water volume, timing, and duration. In this study, we examined hydropower licensing documents of the major water and power projects in the Central Sierra Nevada to catalog e-flow requirements by WYT. In this study case, we identify how WYT classification systems and categories vary across and within different basins. Additionally, we assessed the impacts of climate change on hydrology, the frequency of WYTs identified, and the reliability and resilience of e-flows using future projections (2031–2060) of 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). We then propose a potential adaptation strategy using a 30 year moving percentiles approach to recalculate WYTs. We identified eight WYT classifications systems were identified, and their WYT distributions statistically significantly changes across all GCMs, even though most GCMs indicate no statistically significant change in hydrology. Disparities in future impacts are observed among and within hydropower projects, with some river reaches showing negative impacts on reliability and resilience. The adaptation strategy can generally boost resilience and improve reliability, but simply updating existing WYT thresholds without flexible regulatory frameworks reconsidering WYTs and e-flows thresholds, may not yield substantial improvements. Challenges in managing e-flows in California within regulatory and hydroclimatic contexts are intricate due to the lack of standardized approaches, leading to inconsistencies and potential conflicts among stakeholders, that will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Thus, we emphasize that targeted, site-specific, and adaptive management strategies are crucial, besides the need for a harmonized and consistent approach to defining and applying WYT categories and methods and/or e-flow assessments.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

A National Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence on the Grid (NI4AI) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Electric utilities have traditionally taken a very pragmatic yet myopic approach with grid sensors and the resulting collected data. Sensors are purchased and deployed to solve a specific, known problem that has risen to sufficient awareness as to justify the effort of deploying sensors and the needed capital investment. This sensor data flows into proprietary software packages with limited functionality intended only to address the initial problem. This approach aligns with the financial incentives of the utility to deploy capital into fixed hardware assets for which the corporations earn a rate of return. This mentality stands in stark contrast to the big data revolution that started nearly 25 years ago with the rise of Google. In this worldview, data is a fundamental business asset; successful organizations collect, store, explore, merge, and exploit as much data as possible to not only solve problems well understood today but also to tackle new problems that will inevitably rise tomorrow. The ARPA-E Open Innovation 2018 project entitled A National Infrastructure for Artificial Intelligence on the Grid or NI4AI for short was designed to demonstrate this alternative paradigm for using data. To do this, the project was composed of three key thrust areas. The first major component deployed a variety of high-frequency grid sensors and captured terabytes of both wide-scale and localized grid measurements, generating high-value datasets for grid research and algorithm development. The second aspect made available PingThings’ PredictiveGridTM, a horizontally scalable, cloud-based data management and AI platform built for time series data to explore and exploit the collected data. Finally, the project fostered a diverse and open research community composed of experts from numerous fields through focused educational content, code sharing, and data science competitions. Shifting away from “single use” sensors and closed data silos within electric utilities is a major benefit to the public at large. This legacy approach to data is incredibly (1) capital intensive (new sensors must be deployed for each new problem and problems tend to arise continuously) and (2) painfully slow (new problems must be identified first and then new sensors must be deployed to collect data to begin to address the issue). The transition to a carbon neutral grid requires a massive transformation of the existing grid infrastructure and will continue to challenge the legacy grid in unforeseen ways. The only way to make the energy transition cost effective is for utilities to abandon this dated data paradigm and adopt more contemporary approaches. NI4AI has shown that it is technically possible and economically feasible to ingest, explore, and exploit grid data collected from even very high frequency sensing, such as continuous point on wave sensors collecting measurements 10,000 times a second. In fact, the PredictiveGrid platform used is commercially available and deployed at several utilities in the United States. Project accomplishments were numerous and included (1) making available a state of the art time series platform to the community, (2) collecting over 520 streams of time series data from grid sensors totaling over 1 trillion grid measurements, and (3) developing and nurturing a community within the industry focused on the use of data to create value for utilities and, ultimately, end consumers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗