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At least 109 records · Page 6

A Parameterization of the Cloud Scattering Polarization Signal Derived From GPM Observations for Microwave Fast Radative Transfer Models

Microwave cloud polarized observations have shown the potential to improve precipitation retrievals since they are linked to the orientation and shape of ice habits. Stratiform clouds show larger brightness temperature (TB) polarization differences (PDs), defined as the vertically polarized TB (TBV) minus the horizontally polarized TB (TBH), with ~10 K PD values at 89 GHz due to the presence of horizontally aligned snowflakes, while convective regions show smaller PD signals, as graupel and/or hail in the updraft tend to become randomly oriented. The launch of the global precipitation measurement (GPM) microwave imager (GMI) has extended the availability of microwave polarized observations to higher frequencies (166 GHz) in the tropics and midlatitudes, previously only available up to 89 GHz. This study analyzes one year of GMI observations to explore further the previously reported stable relationship between the PD and the observed TBs at 89 and 166 GHz, respectively. The latitudinal and seasonal variability is analyzed to propose a cloud scattering polarization parameterization of the PD-TB relationship, capable of reconstructing the PD signal from simulated TBs. Given that operational radiative transfer (RT) models do not currently simulate the cloud polarized signals, this is an alternative and simple solution to exploit the large number of cloud polarized observations available. Finally, the atmospheric radiative transfer simulator (ARTS) is coupled with the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, in order to apply the proposed parameterization to the RT simulated TBs and hence infer the corresponding PD values, which show to reproduce the observed GMI PDs well.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Urbanization on Convection, Lightning, and Precipitation Over the Houston Metropolitan Area: Case Study Simulation From the TRACER Campaign

This study investigates the effects of urbanization, specifically land use change and anthropogenic emissions (AE), on convection, lightning, and surface precipitation for a case of summertime sea‐breeze convection observed over the Houston metropolitan area. The unique capabilities of the NASA‐Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model allows us to conduct a series of sensitivity experiments with complex configurations, in particular including multi‐year land model spin‐up simulations, treatment of aerosols and their precursors, and explicit cloud charging and lightning. The simulation results show that urban land use primarily alters the temporal evolution of convection, lightning, and surface precipitation, leading to late afternoon thunderstorm development. The decrease in latent heat flux from the land surface caused by urbanization weakens convection in the early afternoon, while a condition suitable for convection development is maintained in the late afternoon due to less stabilization of the lower troposphere by the weaker convection development and high sensible heat flux from the surface. On the other hand, anthropogenic aerosols directly enhance convection, lightning, and surface precipitation by increasing convective updrafts due to the aerosol‐induced convective invigoration. The combined effects of urban land use and AE lead to even stronger thunderstorms in the late afternoon, mostly consistent with observations. These results indicate that urbanization increases the probability of late afternoon thunderstorms over the Houston area during the summer season. Advanced weather forecasting models that incorporate these urbanization effects might support sustainable urban planning to better mitigate the impacts of urbanization on local weather and public safety.

Iguchi, T. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (U↗

Aerosol Impacts on Mesoscale Convective Systems Forming Under Different Vertical Wind Shear Conditions

Following our previous study of wind shear effect on mesoscale convective system (MCS) organization under a clean atmospheric condition using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Spectral-Bin Microphysics, we conduct sensitivity simulations by increasing cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration and investigate aerosol impacts on MCSs forming under different wind shear conditions. We find that, aerosols induce stronger updrafts and downdrafts in all MCSs. The stronger updrafts and enlarged convective core area contribute to larger vertical mass fluxes and enhance precipitation, indicating convective invigoration. Increased updraft speed below 8-km altitude mainly results from enhanced condensational heating, and increased water loading effect is not large enough to overcome the increase in thermal buoyancy. Interestingly, above 8-km altitude we see reduced updraft speed by the increased aerosols due to reduced vertical pressure perturbation gradient force, and weakened depositional growth due to competition of water vapor by enhanced condensation. The accumulated rainfall and mean rain rate are increased, with an increased occurrence frequency of heavy rain. The increase of rain rate is seen in both convective and stratiform regions, with a more significant increase in convective rain rate. In general, we see a higher frequency of deep convective cloud in the polluted condition because of invigorated convection, and more stratiform/anvil clouds, but a lower frequency of shallow warm clouds. The unanimously invigorated MCSs by aerosols under various wind shear conditions revealed by this study has an important implication in weather and climate at warm and humid regions that are influenced by pollution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modification of wind turbine wakes by large-scale, convective atmospheric boundary layer structures

In this study, we consider the impact of large-scale, convective structures in an unstable atmospheric boundary layer on wind turbine wakes. Simulation data from a high-fidelity large-eddy simulation (LES) of the AWAKEN wind farm site matching unstable atmospheric conditions were analyzed, and both turbine performance and wake behavior were affected based on their location relative to the convective structures. Turbines located in updraft regions of the flow experienced lower inflow velocity and generated less power, but their wakes were observed to recover faster and saw greater turbulent kinetic energy mixing higher in the boundary layer. The opposite effect was found for turbines in the downdraft regions of the convective structures. A simplified model of this wake behavior was also developed based on a two-dimensional k–ε Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes formulation. This simplified model included the effects of vertical transport, but could be efficiently solved as a parabolic system, and was found to capture similar wake modifications observed in the high-fidelity LES computations.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

A Benchmark to Test Generalization Capabilities of Deep Learning Methods to Classify Severe Convective Storms in a Changing Climate

Abstract This is a test case study assessing the ability of deep learning methods to generalize to a future climate (end of 21st century) when trained to classify thunderstorms in model output representative of the present‐day climate. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained to classify strongly rotating thunderstorms from a current climate created using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at high‐resolution, then evaluated against thunderstorms from a future climate and found to perform with skill and comparatively in both climates. Despite training with labels derived from a threshold value of a severe thunderstorm diagnostic (updraft helicity), which was not used as an input attribute, the CNN learned physical characteristics of organized convection and environments that are not captured by the diagnostic heuristic. Physical features were not prescribed but rather learned from the data, such as the importance of dry air at mid‐levels for intense thunderstorm development when low‐level moisture is present (i.e., convective available potential energy). Explanation techniques also revealed that thunderstorms classified as strongly rotating are associated with learned rotation signatures. Results show that the creation of synthetic data with ground truth is a viable alternative to human‐labeled data and that a CNN is able to generalize a target using learned features that would be difficult to encode due to spatial complexity. Most importantly, results from this study show that deep learning is capable of generalizing to future climate extremes and can exhibit out‐of‐sample robustness with hyperparameter tuning in certain applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Connection Between Mass Flux Transport and Eddy Diffusivity in Convective Atmospheric Boundary Layers

Turbulence parameterizations for convective boundary layer in coarse-scale atmospheric models usually consider a combination of the eddy-diffusive transport and a non-local transport, typically in the form of a mass flux term, such as the widely adopted eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) approach. These two types of turbulent transport are generally considered to be independent of each other. Using results from large-eddy simulations, here, we show that a Taylor series expansion of the updraft and downdraft mass-flux transport can be used to approximate the eddy-diffusivity transport in the atmospheric surface layer and the lower part of the mixed layer, connecting both eddy-diffusivity and mass-flux transport theories in convective conditions, which also quantifies departure from the Monin-Obukhov similarity (MOS) in the surface layer. This study provides a theoretical support for a unified EDMF parameterization applied to both the surface layer and mixed layer and highlights important correction required for surface models relying on MOS

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulating the Effects of Surface Energy Partitioning on Convective Organization: Case Study and Observations in the US Southern Great Plains

Realistic cloud-resolving simulations were performed to study the effects of surface energy partitioning (surface sensible and latent heat fluxes) on the organization of isolated convection into larger mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) near the US Southern Great Plains. The role of cold pools in mediating surface-convection interactions was explored. Better organized MCSs tended to occur in the experiments with perturbed wetter soil (and more active vegetation), regardless of the effects of soil moisture on the diurnal timing of convective triggering. Wetter soil led to shallower boundary layers and more convective available potential energy than drier soil. The roles of cold pools on convection are lifecycle-stage dependent: A dry surface allows more numerous colliding cold pools, thereby aiding in convective triggering by reducing entrainment in the early stages, and providing gust-front uplift in later stages. However, horizontal propagation of the cold-pool density current can outrun the convective system, creating a slantwise updraft and thus weakening the gust front uplift in later stages. This effect calls into question previous cold pool parameterizations, in which the gust front uplift is mainly proportional to the negative buoyancy of cold air. Finally, both the model and observation show an enhancement of surface latent heat flux during the passage of a gust front at night, suggesting that a positive feedback between the surface and convection helps MCSs to persist into the nighttime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms

The impact of climate change on severe storms and tornadoes remains uncertain, largely owing to inconsistencies in observational data and limitations of climate models. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting climate model simulations to examine how three tornadic storms would change if similar events were to occur in pre-industrial and future climates. The choice of events includes winter, nocturnal, and spring tornadic storms to provide insight into how the timing and seasonality of storms may affect their response to climate change. Updraft helicity (UH), convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), and convective inhibition (CIN) were used to determine the favorability for the three tornadic storm events in the different climate states. We found that from the pre-industrial to present, the potential for tornadic storms decreased in the winter event and increased in the nocturnal and spring events. With future climate change, the potential for tornadic storms increased in the winter and nocturnal events in association with increased CAPE, and decreased in the spring event despite greater CAPE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Novel Method for Diagnosing Land–Atmosphere Coupling Sensitivity in a Single-Column Model

The response of boundary layer properties and cloudiness to changes in surface evaporative fraction (EF) is investigated in a single-column model to quantify the locally coupled impact of subgrid surface variations on the atmosphere during summer. Sensitive coupling days are defined when the model atmosphere exhibits large variations across a range of EFs centered on the analyzed value. Coupling sensitivity exists as both positive feedback (cloudiness increases with EF) and negative feedback (clouds increase with decreasing EF) regimes. The positive regime manifests in shallow convection situations, which are capped by a strengthened inversion and subsidence, restricting the vertical extent of convection to just above the boundary layer. Surfaces with larger EF (greater surface latent heat flux) can inject more moisture into the vertically confined system, lowering the cloud base and an increasing cloud liquid water path (LWP). Negative feedback regimes tend to manifest when large-scale deep convection, such as from mesoscale convective systems and fronts, is advected through the domain, where convection strengthens over surfaces with a lower EF (greater surface sensible heat flux). The invigoration of these systems by the land surface leads to an increase in LWP through strengthened updrafts and stronger coupling between the boundary layer and the free atmosphere. These results apply in the absence of heterogeneity-induced mesoscale circulations, providing a one-dimensional dynamical perspective on the effect of surface heterogeneity. Finally, this study provides a framework of intermediate complexity, lying between parcel theory and high-resolution coupled land–atmosphere modeling, and therefore isolates the relevant first-order processes in land–atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE) C-band Radar Deployment Field Campaign Report

Convective clouds play a critical role in the Earth’s climate system, acting as sinks of total water in the atmospheric column through precipitation, thereby contributing to the atmospheric energy balance. They serve as a primary mechanism for the transfer of heat, moisture, and momentum through the troposphere, significantly impacting the large-scale atmospheric circulation and local environment, and affecting the probability of subsequent cloud formation (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984, Su et al. 2014, Sherwood et al. 2014). Convective characteristics including convective core size (reflectivity and updraft), cloud lifetime, precipitation intensity, total precipitation amount, precipitation efficiency, and lightning flash rates can be strongly related to environmental factors (e.g., wind shear, humidity). Since cumulus clouds evolve rapidly, their microphysical and dynamical properties and life cycles are challenging to resolve in models, and even in observations (e.g., Fridlind et al. 2017, Ladino et al. 2017).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Surface Heterogeneity-Induced Convection Using Cluster Analysis

Land-atmosphere interactions and boundary layer processes often control the formation of shallow clouds and subsequently deep convective precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. In this study, we examine the impacts of large-scale advection on the cloud populations and land-atmospheric coupling observed during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign in 2016. In this work, we performed two Large Eddy Simulations (LES) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for a day in which the transition from clear-sky to shallow precipitating clouds and isolated deep convection was observed. The control simulation reproduced the overall distribution of cloud populations by using realistic soil conditions with an interactive land model. In the sensitivity simulation where large-scale advection is removed, a strong relationship between the land and boundary layer is found. To study the timing, location, and intensity of convective initiation and the relationship of clouds with land surface properties, a cluster analysis of equivalent potential temperature is performed for the simulation without large-scale advection. That analysis shows that convective clouds first form over regions with higher surface sensible heat flux. Precipitation from those convective clouds likely triggers new updrafts nearby about two hours later through the lifting associated with cold pools. Furthermore, the cluster analysis also shows that in addition to the spatial pattern of soil moisture, land use and soil texture in western Oklahoma also influence the location of convective initiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of deep convection and cross-tropopause water transport to microphysical parameterizations in WRF

Deep convective storms can overshoot the tropopause, thus altering the composition of the stratosphere by vertically transporting tropospheric air. The transport of water vapor and ice particles into a sub-saturated environment can hydrate the stratosphere, with implications for radiative forcing and ozone chemistry. Cloud-resolved models, if employed at high spatial resolutions, are used to probe process-level questions about cross-tropopause deep convective hydration and its controls. There is considerable diversity in model representations of processes associated with water transport and transformation, and the choice of a microphysics scheme affects model skill in simulating deep convective events. This motivates our evaluation of state-of-the-art, as well as widely used standard schemes, in a high spatial- and temporal-resolution framework. Six bulk microphysics schemes were employed in a WRF-LES setup, initialized with a sounding profile representative of a tropopause-overshooting storm. Here, we used an idealized framework to isolate the effect of microphysics on the dominant processes that control the reach of deep convection and stratospheric hydration. All schemes produced the highest reaching updrafts 8-12 hours into the simulation but the strength and persistence of updrafts varied across the schemes; maximum storm heights ranged 9.1-12.6 km across the schemes. Varying microphysics produced large differences in the vertical extent and horizontal aggregation of convection, and an order of magnitude spread in above-tropopause water vapor concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Combined Effect of the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen Mechanism and Large Eddies on Microphysics of Mixed-Phase Stratiform Clouds

Abstract The process of glaciation in mixed-phase stratiform clouds was investigated by a novel Lagrangian–Eulerian model (LEM) in which thousands of adjoining Lagrangian parcels moved within a turbulent-like velocity field with statistical parameters typical of the Arctic boundary layer. We used detailed bin microphysics to describe the condensation/evaporation processes in each parcel, in which droplets, aerosols, and ice particles were described using size distributions of 500 mass bins. The model also calculated aerosol mass inside droplets and ice particles. Gravitational sedimentation of droplets and ice particles was also accounted for. Assuming that droplet freezing is the primary source of ice particles, the Arctic clouds observed in Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) were successfully simulated. The model showed that at a low ice particle concentration typical of ISDAC, large vortices (eddies) led to a quasi-stationary regime, in which mixed-phase St existed for a long time. The large eddies controlled the water partitioning in the mixed-phase clouds. Droplets formed and grew in updrafts, typically reaching the cloud top, and evaporated in downdrafts. Ice particles grew in updrafts and downdrafts. The Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) mechanism was efficient in downdrafts and some parts of updrafts, depending on ice concentration and vertical velocity. At low ice concentrations, the effect of ice on the phase partitioning was negligible. In this regime, liquid droplets were found near the cloud top, whereas ice particles precipitated through the cloud base. When ice concentration exceeded about 10 L −1 , the WBF mechanism led to glaciation of almost the entire cloud, with the exception of narrow cloud regions associated with strong updrafts. At ice particle concentrations of a few tens per liter, the oscillatory regime took place due to the ice–liquid interaction. The microphysical structure of mixed-phase St forms as a combined effect of cloud dynamics (large eddies) and the WBF mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large-Scale Forcing Impact on the Development of Shallow Convective Clouds Revealed From LASSO Large-Eddy Simulations

Real-world large-eddy simulations (LES) are driven by time-varying large-scale forcings (LSF) - e.g., temperature advection, moisture advection, and subsidence - derived from large-scale weather models. This study investigates the impact of the uncertainty in LSF on real-world LES in terms of the development of shallow convection at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory for the 11 June 2016 case using LES provided by the U.S. Department of Energy's LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity. The LASSO dataset provides an ensemble of LES for the selected case, which consists of LES runs that were driven by different LSF. The two contrasting LES runs investigated here generate different types of convective clouds, i.e., nonprecipitating shallow clouds and precipitating cumulus congestus, mainly due to the difference of LSF in temperature advection in the free troposphere. The temperature advection modulates the strength of the capping inversion and therefore the buoyancy of the air parcels rising from the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The inversion, together with large-scale updrafts, controls the penetration of the ABL thermals into the free troposphere, leading to cumulus congestus in the case of a weaker inversion. In contrast, clouds remain shallow in the case of a strong inversion. Differences between the two simulations are amplified over time, as mixed-phase clouds are formed near the top of the congestus in the weaker inversion case. Furthermore, this high dependency of LES results to LSF stresses the importance of accurate LSF by large-scale models to real-world LES simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Forest Canopy Structure on Buoyant Plume Dynamics During Wildland Fires

Heterogeneous forest canopies can generate complex turbulent structures, but in the presence of a fire plume, these interactions are not fully understood. This study investigates the influence of forest canopy heterogeneity on buoyant plume dynamics resulting from surface thermal anomalies representing wildland fires, utilizing Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM) was employed to simulate six canopy configurations: no canopy, homogeneous canopy, external plume-edge canopy, internal plume-edge canopy, 100 m gap canopy, and 200 m gap canopy. Each configuration was analyzed with and without a static surface heat flux patch of 5000 W ∙ m -2 , resulting in a resting buoyant plume. Simulations were conducted under three crosswind speeds: 0, 5, and 10 m ∙ s -1 . Results show that canopy structure significantly modifies plume behavior, mean flow, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budgets. Plume updraft speed and tilt varied with canopy configuration and crosswind speed. Horizontal pressure gradients associated with plume-atmosphere interaction were modified based on the canopy configuration, resulting in varying crosswind speed reductions at the plume region. Strong momentum absorption was observed above the canopy for the crosswind cases, with the greatest enhancement in the gap canopies. Momentum injection from below the canopy due to the heat source was also observed, resulting in plume structure modulation based on canopy configuration. TKE was found to be the largest in the gap canopy configurations. TKE budget analysis revealed that buoyant production dominated over shear production. At the center of the heat patch, the gap canopy configurations showed enhanced buoyancy within the gap. These results improve our knowledge of fire-canopy-atmosphere interactions that can inform fire models on the impacts of canopy heterogeneity on plume dynamics and ember ejections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving the Physical Basis for Updraft Dynamics in Deep Convection Parameterizations

This article presents a new deep convective parameterization that determines cloud characteristics based on a specified cloud size distribution. The vertical profiles of cloud properties are determined by analytic equations, which formulate entrainment with an inverse relationship to cloud width. In line with recent studies of large eddy simulations (LES), cloud widths are assumed to be constant with height and vertical mass flux (M) characteristics of the clouds are therefore regulated by the vertical velocity profile. The parameterization is configured to work with existing cloud base M closure formulations, with the closure predicting the total cloud area rather than the cloud base M directly. Analytic formula are also used to connect the vertical wind shear magnitude to the cloud size distribution, wherein larger shear magnitudes result in more numerous large updrafts than weaker shear magnitudes, which is in line with recent research results. The parameterization is compared against 10 deep convective LES with varying thermodynamic and vertical wind shear profiles. Results show dramatic improvements in the prediction of normalized M, detrainment, and the properties of detrained air over the existing Zhang and McFarlane (1995) scheme. In particular, the new model is able to correctly portray the transition from a bottom-heavy M profile in weakly sheared environments, to a top-heavy M profile in strongly sheared environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Shallow Convection Parameterization Assumptions With a q t – w Quadrant Analysis

Abstract Uncertainties associated with the response of shallow clouds to global warming remain a great challenge for climate projection. Due to the small size of these clouds, parameterizations are required to represent them in both current‐ and next‐generation climate models. We present a quantitative evaluation of several important assumptions used in both mass‐flux and Assumed‐PDF Higher‐Order Closure parameterizations of shallow convection. We use large‐eddy simulations (LESs) of four different shallow convection regimes as benchmarks and apply a q t (total moisture)– w (vertical velocity) quadrant analysis technique to identify the “coherent structures” of moist and dry up/down‐drafts. The statistics of these coherent structures and the environment are then used to evaluate commonly used assumptions in mass‐flux parameterizations related to (a) the convective downdrafts and (b) the subplume variability of convective updrafts. For quantitative evaluation of the PDF closure used in AP‐HOCs, we perform offline calculations with the PDF closure used in the Cloud Layers Unified By Bi‐normals and the Simplified Higher‐Order Closure schemes by supplying the closure with statistical quantities directly calculated from the LESs. Then, the impact of parameterization assumptions embedded in the PDF closure in the same two categories is analyzed and understood through comparisons of the output from the closure with the statistics of the moist and dry up/down‐drafts from the LESs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining the Impacts of Microphysical-Dynamical Feedbacks on Convective Clouds in Different Aerosol Environments Using Enhanced Observational and Modeling Strategies

This project investigated how microphysical–dynamical feedbacks influence deep convective clouds across a range of aerosol conditions, storm lifecycles, and meteorological regimes, and how these sensitivities depend on the modeling framework used to represent convection and microphysics. Using the Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation, and Climate (ACPC) Working Group model intercomparison simulations of isolated deep convection in the Houston region, we found a robust warm-phase aerosol response in most cloud-resolving models. Increased aerosol loading tended to suppress warm-rain production, increase cloud water, and reduce surface rainfall and near-surface evaporation. These impacts were typically strongest early in the convective lifecycle, with the largest aerosol-driven differences occurring during the first half of storm evolution. The ice-phase response, on the other hand, varied widely across modeling frameworks, and differed in sign, timing, and vertical structure. Ice microphysical pathways and parameterizations are therefore leading sources of uncertainty in aerosol–deep convection interactions. Theoretical analyses further suggested that aerosol-driven invigoration through cold-phase processes was much weaker than previously hypothesized for cold-based storms, and in warm-based storms could even reduce updraft strength. These results imply that any invigoration signal is more likely linked to warm-phase processes and peaks early in storm development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗