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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Limiter-aware adaptive excitation control for hydropower generators with legacy voltage regulation systems

Hydropower units often rely on legacy excitation systems with fixed automatic voltage regulator (AVR) settings, but parameter drift, changing operating conditions, and evolving grid-service demands can degrade terminal-voltage regulation over time. This problem should be addressed because poor voltage regulation affects reactive-power support, system stability, and reliable plant operation, and replacing installed AVR and limiter logic is costly and disruptive in practice. To address this issue, this paper proposes a retrofit-friendly enhancement for hydropower generator excitation systems that combines adaptive tuning of the AVR middle lead–lag branch with a small proportional-integral correction for removing steady bias and slow drift. The adaptive laws are normalized, projection-bounded, and equipped with leakage, while adaptation is enabled only in the middle branch. Thus, the intent of the underexcitation and overexcitation limiters, as well as legacy current and rate limits, remains unchanged. Stability is analyzed under incremental performance assumptions, yielding boundedness and asymptotic tracking in the absence of saturation. The method is evaluated using real operational data from a utility-scale hydropower unit at Rocky Reach Dam, Unit C-8. Compared with the fixed AVR baseline, the proposed method reduces terminal-voltage mean squared error by about 70%, removes long periods of steady-state bias, and improves transient tracking while coexisting with limiter actions. These results show that substantial voltage-control improvement can be achieved on existing hydropower units with minimal integration effort and without replacing the installed AVR structure.

ESST5B model↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

UV + Damp Heat Induced Power Losses in Fielded Utility N-Type Si PV Modules

A recent trend in commercial PV modules is a transition to n-type silicon cells, including passivated emitter rear totally diffused (n-PERT), tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon), and silicon heterojunction (SHJ). There is evidence via lab studies that some of these cells are more susceptible to UV induced degradation (UVID), yet there is a lack of confirmation that such degradation occurs in the field. Current IEC standards designed to screen for early module failures require only minimal UV exposure (15 kWh/m2 280-400 nm, ~2-3 months equivalent outdoor exposure). Here, we investigate fielded n-PERT silicon (Si) modules from a commercial utility that show power losses of ~2%/year. We present a comprehensive picture of the physics and chemistry of degradation supported by both module and cell electronic characterization (EL, PL, IV, EQE, and DLIT) and materials-level morphological and chemical analysis (SEM, EDS, XPS, FTIR, and HPLC). All sampled site modules show short circuit current (Isc) and open circuit voltage (Voc) losses when compared to unfielded spares, with the most severely degraded also having losses in fill factor (FF). We identify two different degradation modes contributing to overall power loss: (1) external quantum efficiency (EQE) measurements show losses in the blue range of the spectra, indicative of cell surface recombination losses, and (2) variations in high series resistance (Rs) at the cell level that are correlated with compositional differences in cell metallization. Using unfielded spares, we were able to reproduce Voc, Isc, and EQE losses via a minimum UV stress of 67.5 kWh/m2 (280-400 nm), 4.5x the exposure currently required in IEC 61215-2 (MQT 10). Degradation continued with additional UV dosage equivalent to the fielded modules (405 kWh/m2 total), with power loss leveling out at an average of 6.1%. Subsequent 1000 h of 85% RH/85degrees C damp heat testing showed that cells exposed to UV underwent additional severe series resistance degradation, even those without the susceptible paste composition seen in the field, whereas non-UV exposed cells saw little change. We attribute this to higher concentrations of acetic acid generated on the UV exposed area of the module, leading to degradation of the gridline/cell interface and high Rs. This study is unique in that it reproduces field observed utility scale UVID with an accelerated test and supports the need for standards development for longer UV exposure combined with other stress factors to catch materials interplay within a module package.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Review of Software for Designing and Operating Quantum Networks

Quantum networks development is crucial to realizing a production-grade network that can support distributed sensing, secure communication, and utility-scale quantum computation. However, the transition from laboratory demonstration to deployable networks requires software implementations of architectures and protocols tailored to the unique constraints of quantum systems. This paper reviews the current state of software implementations for quantum networks, organized around a three-plane abstraction of infrastructure, logical, and control/service planes. We cover software for both designing quantum network protocols (e.g., SeQUeNCe, QuISP, and NetSquid) and operating testbeds, with a focus on essential control/service plane functions such as entanglement, topology, and resource management, in a proposed taxonomy. Our review highlights a persistent gap between theoretical architecture and protocol proposals and their realization in simulators or testbeds, particularly in dynamic topology and network management. We conclude by outlining open challenges and proposing a roadmap for developing scalable software architectures to enable hybrid, large-scale quantum networks.

Network Design↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced multimaterial shape optimization methods as applied to advanced manufacturing of wind turbine generators

Abstract Currently, many utility‐scale wind turbine generator original equipment manufacturers are dependent on imported rare earth permanent magnets, which are susceptible to market risks from cost instability. To lower the production costs of these generators and stay competitive in the market, several small wind manufacturers are pursuing continuous improvements to both generator design and manufacturing. However, traditional design and manufacturing methods have yielded marginal improvements in wind power performance. This work presents novel methods to redesign a baseline 15‐kW wind turbine generator with reduced rare‐earth permanent magnets by leveraging cutting‐edge three‐dimensional (3D) printed polymer‐bonded permanent magnets and steel. Symmetric, asymmetric, and multimaterial‐magnet parametrization methods are introduced for shape optimization. We extend the symmetric and asymmetric methods to the back iron in the stator to further investigate the impact and opportunities for performance improvements with lesser active materials. We employ a design‐of‐experiments approach with parametric computer‐aided design for shape generation and evaluate different designs by magneto‐thermal modeling and finite‐element analysis. We use adaptive sampling technique to identify better performing designs with lesser magnet mass, higher efficiency, and lower cogging torque when compared with the baseline generator. Asymmetric pole designs resulted in a magnet mass in the range of 4.77–5.37 kg, which was 27%–35% lighter than the baseline generator, suggesting that a new design freedom exists that can be enabled by advanced manufacturing, such as 3D printing. Shaping the back iron in the stator resulted in material savings in electrical steel of up to 14.62 kg, which was 20% lighter than the baseline stator. We conducted a structural analysis to evaluate an optimized asymmetric rotor design from the point of view of mechanical integrity and air‐gap stiffness. The magnetically optimal shape profile was shown as having a positive impact on the radial stiffness, and an optimal solution was discovered to reduce the structural mass by nearly 30 kg, which was 29% lighter than the baseline.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of year-to-year weather variability and inter-panel spacing on agrivoltaic crop yields in Massachusetts

Deployment of utility-scale solar power plants could lead to agricultural land-use changes. Agrivoltaics, a dual land use combining solar and agriculture on the same land, can provide multiple environmental benefits, including improving soil quality and water use efficiency. The body of agrivoltaic field data is still growing, and crop responses to different solar configurations under different local climates are highly varied. We investigate the impact of adding spacing between adjacent solar panels in a fixed-tilt system to improve light diffusion to crops. For four crops (broccoli, peppers, kale, Swiss chard) grown across 3 years in an agrivoltaic system in Massachusetts, we found that only kale had a linearly increasing trend as the inter-panel spacing increased from 0.6 m to 1.5 m (2 ft to 5 ft). However, there were significant year-to-year differences in the yield of agrivoltaic versus control fields. Agrivoltaic and full sun fields produced equivalent yields in a hot, dry year, whereas the full-sun control beds produced more salable yield for all four crops in a warm, wet year. This demonstrates variability of agricultural outcomes and the need for more multi-year studies to ensure agrivoltaic impacts are not under- or overestimated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning for photovoltaic single axis tracker fault detection and classification

More than 81% of the annual capacity of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plants in the U.S. use single-axis trackers (SATs) due to SATs delivering 4% in capacity factor on average over fixed-array systems. However, SATs are subject to faults, such as software misconfigurations and mechanical failures, resulting in suboptimal tracking. If left undetected, the overall power yield of the PV power plant is reduced significantly. Minimizing downtime and ensuring efficient operation of SATs requires robust detection and diagnosis mechanisms for SAT faults. We present a machine learning framework for implementing real-time SAT fault detection and classification. Our implementation of the proposed framework reliably identifies measurements taken from a test PV system undergoing emulated SAT faults relative to state-of-the-art algorithms and produces nearly zero false positives on our testing days. Code and data are available at https://pvpmc.sandia.gov/tools.

Fault classification↗
DOE OSTI2025

Winds of fortune? Understanding the geographic, sociodemographic, and temporal distribution of benefit mechanisms from land-based wind projects in the United States

Despite decades of research on factors shaping local responses to wind development, there is relatively little known about benefit mechanisms (e.g., agreements, funds, donations) used by developers in the U.S. land-based wind sector. To address this gap, we collected benefit mechanism data across all current utility-scale land-based wind projects installed between 1982 and 2024 (n = 1047), finding that just under one-third of projects had a benefit mechanism attached to them. We find the use of benefit mechanisms has become more common over time, is associated with larger projects, and varies by region. In terms of host community characteristics, the use of benefit mechanisms is associated with characteristics like higher education level, higher percent white, higher percent Republican, higher decision-making capacity, lower unemployment rate, and higher poverty rate. Building on a theoretical framework of purposes, we discuss what these findings could suggest about the motivations driving developers' use of these mechanisms, such as increasing local acceptance of a wind project or supporting distributive fairness. This first-of-its-kind study builds a comprehensive understanding of how benefit mechanisms have been used in the U.S. wind industry throughout its history, which can inform future approaches to benefit-sharing across sectors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A review of future weather data for assessing climate change impacts on buildings and energy systems

The effectiveness of climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies depend on the availability of high-quality future weather data. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of the energy research community and the focus of the climate modeling community, primarily due to a historical lack of communication and collaboration between the two groups. Here, to address this issue, this work provides a comprehensive overview of the critical aspects involved in creating future weather data for building and energy system modeling, including emissions scenarios, general circulation models, downscaling methods, categories of future weather data, and uncertainties in climate simulations. Moreover, it critically evaluates the applicability and suitability of various types of future weather data in five key application scenarios: energy use analysis, resilience analysis, HVAC design, utility-scale analysis, and renewable energy analysis. Finally, this work presents recommendations for high-level actions and research directions to foster collaboration between the energy research and climate modeling communities and to promote the integration of future weather data into energy codes and the design practices of buildings and energy systems.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Micro-structural features and material properties impact on adhesive metal joints via computational modeling and machine learning

The quality of structural bonding in practical applications depends on various factors arising from materials, pre-processing conditions, and manufacturing. Understanding how these factors influence bonding performance and determining their relative importance are of significant interest. Thus, this study evaluates the effects of microstructural features and material properties on the structural strength of adhesively-bonded metal joints at the submillimeter scale, utilizing a combination of Finite Element Modeling (FEM) and Machine Learning (ML) with Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR). The microstructural features include adhesive thickness, internal voids within the adhesive, adherend-adhesive interfacial voids, void size and volume fraction, and surface roughness. The material properties include the constitutive behavior of the adhesive, as well as the adherend-adhesive interfacial strength and fracture energy. The changes in structural strength and morphologies of the bonded metal structures with respect to different microstructural features and material properties were clarified by FEM. By further leveraging ML-GBR, the sequence of importance of these factors affecting bonding performance across various scenarios was summarized. This work provides valuable insights into the development of improved structural bonding for adhesive joints in industries such as automotive , aerospace, and beyond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

This study analyzes the primary drivers of recent state-level trends in U.S. retail electricity prices. We summarize pricing trends, explore descriptive relationships, and employ regression models to quantify the influence of various factors. Although the recent national rise in retail prices has largely tracked inflation, state-level trends vary widely. We identify a number of factors that explain trends in subsets of states. States with the greatest price increases typically exhibited shrinking customer loads—partially linked to growth in net metered behind-the-meter solar—and had renewables portfolio standards (RPS) in concert with relatively costly incremental renewable energy supplies. By contrast, recent utility-scale wind and solar deployment that occurred outside RPS programs (but that benefited from tax incentives) had no discernible impact on increased retail prices. Hurricanes, storms and wildfires also contributed to sizable price increases in some states, most notably in California, where wildfire risk mitigation and liability insurance were major cost drivers. Fluctuations in natural gas prices—particularly following the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war—further contributed to sharp price increases through 2022–2023 in many states, with moderation in 2024. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the findings underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability.

Customer load↗
DOE OSTI2026

Economic NMPC for a Reversible Solid Oxide Cell

Reversible solid oxide fuel cells (rSOCs) offer the flexibility to operate in tandem with the electric grid by switching between fuel cell and electrolysis modes based on real-time electricity prices. However, their complex, tightly coupled dynamic behavior poses significant challenges in determining optimal operating strategies. In this work, we present an economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework to optimize the operation of rSOCs. The proposed E-NMPC is applied to a detailed rSOC flowsheet model that includes a utility scale rSOC module as well as balance-of-plant equipment necessary for thermal management. Our results demonstrate that in fuel cell mode, the E-NMPC strategy reduces hydrogen consumption compared to conventional set-point tracking NMPC, while maintaining the same level of electricity output. Also, in electrolysis mode, the E-NMPC yields a marginal improvement in hydrogen production. In addition, we explore the integration of a battery with the rSOC system to enhance flexibility in meeting electricity production and consumption targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pressure-Induced Stabilization of Terbium(IV) in CsTb(CrO 4 ) 2 Characterized by X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy

Single crystals of CsTb(CrO 4 ) 2 and CsDy(CrO 4 ) 2 , where the lanthanide metals are in the trivalent state under ambient conditions, have been investigated under high-pressure conditions on the gigapascal scale utilizing a diamond anvil cell. These compounds were characterized by single-crystal X-ray diffraction in addition to high-pressure solid-state UV-vis-NIR spectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy, and Tb L 3 -edge highenergy- resolution fluorescence-detected X-ray absorption near-edge structure (HERFD-XANES). The high-pressure UV-vis-NIR spectra reveal strong broadening of the metal-to-ligand charge transfer band to lower energies, associated with a visible color change from yellow to dark red/black. Clear evidence for the stabilization of Tb 4+ under high pressure is provided by the appearance of a second edge feature characteristic of Tb 4+ , starting at 19.62 GPa in the high-pressure L 3 -edge HERFD-XANES at around 7528 eV. This represents the first example of Tb 4+ being stabilized by high pressure and expands upon the limited chemistry of terbium in the tetravalent state.

Anions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aqueous-based recycling of perovskite photovoltaics

Abstract Cumulative silicon photovoltaic (PV) waste highlights the importance of considering waste recycling before the commercialization of emerging PV technologies 1,2 . Perovskite PVs are a promising next-generation technology 3 , in which recycling their end-of-life waste can reduce the toxic waste and retain resources 4,5 . Here we report a low-cost, green-solvent-based holistic recycling strategy to restore all valuable components from perovskite PV waste. We develop an efficient aqueous-based perovskite recycling approach that can also rejuvenate degraded perovskites. We further extend the scope of recycling to charge-transport layers, substrates, cover glasses and metal electrodes. After repeated degradation–recycling processes, the recycled devices show similar efficiency and stability compared with the fresh devices. Our holistic recycling strategy reduces by 96.6% resource depletion and by 68.8% human toxicity (cancer effects) impacts associated with perovskite PVs compared with the landfill treatment. With recycling, the levelized cost of electricity also decreases for both utility-scale and residential systems. This study highlights unique opportunities of perovskite PVs for holistic recycling and paves the way for a sustainable perovskite solar economy.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using multiple high-resolution datasets to benchmark the energy exascale earth system model (E3SM) for renewable resource assessment

The United States is accelerating its shift toward a renewable energy system. However, renewable resources, which harness energy from the Earth system, are susceptible to both present-day climate variability and future climate change. For example, variations in regional climate can alter renewable energy production patterns and site viability. The use of high-resolution climate model projections can therefore facilitate and may be critical to long-term planning of renewable energy investments. However, climate models must first be validated for renewable resource assessment. This research employs multiple high-spatiotemporal-resolution datasets to assess the capability of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 North American Regionally Refined Model (E3SMv2-NARRM) for predicting multi-year climatological values of solar and wind energy capacity factors in the continental U.S., with a focus on regional and seasonal variability. Present-day E3SMv2-NARRM simulations are compared with reported utility-scale production data obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, E3SMv2-NARRM data are evaluated against non-climate benchmark models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, including the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit and the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), as well as three wind energy datasets from PLUSWIND. Our analysis indicates that solar capacity factors from E3SM closely match those from the NSRDB dataset. However, both datasets tend to overestimate values by 10% in comparison to EIA data. Furthermore, biases in wind capacity factors within E3SM are notably pronounced in the West Coast regions, where the seasonal cycle diverges from EIA data.

Energy forecasting, Capacity factor, Renewable ene↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of new and existing methods for time-domain simulations of turbulence and loads

We seek to obtain a second-by-second match between the simulated and measured structural loads of a utility-scale wind turbine. To obtain the one-to-one load simulations, we start with the furthest upstream component of the modeling chain: the turbulent inflow. We consider new and existing methods to generate constrained-turbulence flow fields. The new method is based on large-eddy simulations (LES) and machine learning (ML). The existing methods include Kaimal-based TurbSim and the superstatistical wind field model. The inflow measurements used to constrain these simulations are obtained with a nacelle-mounted scanning lidar. We compare the flow fields for the different inflow simulation approaches and validate their associated load predictions against measurements collected in the Rotor Aero-dynamics, Aeroelastics, and Wake (RAAW) field campaign. We find that the rotor-position control developed for this study is key in enabling the time match between measurements and simulations. When this control approach is used, the load simulation performance tracks with the inflow simulation fidelity, with LES+ML yielding errors ≤ 4% for the damage-equivalent loads of flapwise bending moment, and tower fore-aft bending moments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗