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Risk management and expert system development methodology

A risk-based expert-system development methodology has been developed to provide guidance to managers and technical personnel and to serve as a standard for developing expert systems. Expert-system development differs from conventional software development in that the information needed to prepare system requirements for expert systems is not known at the outset of a project and is obtained by knowledge engineering methods. The paper describes the expert-system life cycle, development methodology, and the approach taken in this methodology to manage and reduce the risks in expert system development. Also examined are the risks of using and of not using a methodology, the studies undertaken to validate the provisions of the expert system development methodology, and the results of these validation studies.

Hull, Larry

A comparative study and validation of upwind and central-difference Navier-Stokes codes for high-speed flows

A comparative study was made using 4 different computer codes for solving the compressible Navier-Stokes equations. Three different test problems were used, each of which has features typical of high speed internal flow problems of practical importance in the design and analysis of propulsion systems for advanced hypersonic vehicles. These problems are the supersonic flow between two walls, one of which contains a 10 deg compression ramp, the flow through a hypersonic inlet, and the flow in a 3-D corner formed by the intersection of two symmetric wedges. Three of the computer codes use similar recently developed implicit upwind differencing technology, while the fourth uses a well established explicit method. The computed results were compared with experimental data where available.

Rudy, David H.

In-Trail Procedure Air Traffic Control Procedures Validation Simulation Study

In August 2007, Airservices Australia (Airservices) and the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducted a validation experiment of the air traffic control (ATC) procedures associated with the Automatic Dependant Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) In-Trail Procedure (ITP). ITP is an Airborne Traffic Situation Awareness (ATSA) application designed for near-term use in procedural airspace in which ADS-B data are used to facilitate climb and descent maneuvers. NASA and Airservices conducted the experiment in Airservices simulator in Melbourne, Australia. Twelve current operational air traffic controllers participated in the experiment, which identified aspects of the ITP that could be improved (mainly in the communication and controller approval process). Results showed that controllers viewed the ITP as valid and acceptable. This paper describes the experiment design and results.

Chartrand, Ryan C.

OVERFLOW Validation for Predicting Plume Impingement of Underexpanded Axisymmetric Jets onto Angled Flat Plates

This report documents how OVERFLOW, a computational fluid dynamics code, predicts plume impingement of underexpanded axisymmetric jets onto both perpendicular and inclined flat plates. The effects of the plume impinging on a range of plate inclinations varying from 90deg to 30deg are investigated and compared to the experimental results in Reference 1 and 2. The flow fields are extremely complex due to the interaction between the shock waves from the free jet and those deflected by the plate. Additionally, complex mixing effects create very intricate structures in the flow. The experimental data is very limited, so these validation studies will focus only on cold plume impingement on flat and inclined plates. This validation study will help quantify the error in the OVERFLOW simulation when applied to stage separation scenarios.

Lee, Henry C.

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Detect and Avoid System: End-to-End Verification and Validation Simulation Study of Minimum Operations Performance Standards for Integrating Unmanned Aircraft into the National Airspace System

As Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) make their way to mainstream aviation operations within the National Airspace System (NAS), research efforts are underway to develop a safe and effective environment for their integration into the NAS. Detect and Avoid (DAA) systems are required to account for the lack of "eyes in the sky" due to having no human on-board the aircraft. The technique, results, and lessons learned from a detailed End-to-End Verification and Validation (E2-V2) simulation study of a DAA system representative of RTCA SC-228's proposed Phase I DAA Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS), based on specific test vectors and encounter cases, will be presented in this paper.

Ghatas, Rania W.

The Effects of Severity of Losses of Well Clear on Minimum Operations Performance Standards End-To-End Verification and Validation Simulation Study for Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems into the National Airspace System Using Detect and Avoid Systems

As Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) make their way to mainstream aviation operations within the National Airspace System (NAS), research efforts are underway to develop a safe and effective environment for their integration into the NAS. Detect and Avoid (DAA) systems are required to account for the lack of “eyes in the sky” due to having no human on-board the aircraft. The technique, results, and lessons learned from a detailed End-to-End Verification and Validation (E2-V2) simulation study of a DAA system representative of RTCA Special Committee(SC)-228’s proposed Phase I DAA Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS), based on specific test vectors and encounter cases, will be presented in this paper.

Ghatas, Rania W.

Validation of the Nasa Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

medical equipment

Validation of the NASA Integrated Medical Model: a Space Flight Medical Risk Prediction Tool

The Human Research Program funded the development of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) to quantify the medical component of overall mission risk. The IMM uses Monte Carlo simulation methodology, incorporating space flight and ground medical data, to estimate the probability of mission medical outcomes and resource utilization. To determine the credibility of IMM output, the IMM project team completed two validation studies that compared IMM predicted output to observed medical events from a selection of Shuttle Transportation System (STS) and International Space Station (ISS) missions. The validation study results showed that the IMM underpredicted the occurrence of ~10% of the modeled medical conditions for the STS missions and overpredicted ~20% of the modeled medical conditions for the ISS missions. These findings imply that the strength of IMM predictions to inform decisions depends on simulated mission specifications including length. This discrepancy could result from medical recording differences between ISS and STS that possibly influence observed incidence rates, IMM combining all "mission type" data as constant occurrence rate or fixed proportion across both mission types, misspecification of symptoms to conditions, and gaps in the literature informing the model. Some of these issues will be alleviated by updating the IMM source data through incorporation of the observed validation data.

risk assessment

Continued Research into Characterizing the Preturbulence Environment for Sensor Development, New Hazard Algorithms and Experimental Flight Planning

The purpose of the research was to develop and test improved hazard algorithms that could result in the development of sensors that are better able to anticipate potentially severe atmospheric turbulence, which affects aircraft safety. The research focused on employing numerical simulation models to develop improved algorithms for the prediction of aviation turbulence. This involved producing both research simulations and real-time simulations of environments predisposed to moderate and severe aviation turbulence. The research resulted in the following fundamental advancements toward the aforementioned goal: 1) very high resolution simulations of turbulent environments indicated how predictive hazard indices could be improved resulting in a candidate hazard index that indicated the potential for improvement over existing operational indices, 2) a real-time turbulence hazard numerical modeling system was improved by correcting deficiencies in its simulation of moist convection and 3) the same real-time predictive system was tested by running the code twice daily and the hazard prediction indices updated and improved. Additionally, a simple validation study was undertaken to determine how well a real time hazard predictive index performed when compared to commercial pilot observations of aviation turbulence. Simple statistical analyses were performed in this validation study indicating potential skill in employing the hazard prediction index to predict regions of varying intensities of aviation turbulence. Data sets from a research numerical model where provided to NASA for use in a large eddy simulation numerical model. A NASA contractor report and several refereed journal articles where prepared and submitted for publication during the course of this research.

Kaplan, Michael L.

Development of a Subcell Based Modeling Approach for Modeling the Architecturally Dependent Impact Response of Triaxially Braided Polymer Matrix Composites

Understanding the high velocity impact response of polymer matrix composites with complex architectures is critical to many aerospace applications, including engine fan blade containment systems where the structure must be able to completely contain fan blades in the event of a blade-out. Despite the benefits offered by these materials, the complex nature of textile composites presents a significant challenge for the prediction of deformation and damage under both quasi-static and impact loading conditions. The relatively large mesoscale repeating unit cell (in comparison to the size of structural components) causes the material to behave like a structure rather than a homogeneous material. Impact experiments conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center have shown the damage patterns to be a function of the underlying material architecture. Traditional computational techniques that involve modeling these materials using smeared homogeneous, orthotropic material properties at the macroscale result in simulated damage patterns that are a function of the structural geometry, but not the material architecture. In order to preserve heterogeneity at the highest length scale in a robust yet computationally efficient manner, and capture the architecturally dependent damage patterns, a previously-developed subcell modeling approach where the braided composite unit cell is approximated as a series of four adjacent laminated composites is utilized. This work discusses the implementation of the subcell methodology into the commercial transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA (Livermore Software Technology Corp.). Verification and validation studies are also presented, including simulation of the tensile response of straight-sided and notched quasi-static coupons composed of a T700/PR520 triaxially braided [0deg/60deg/-60deg] composite. Based on the results of the verification and validation studies, advantages and limitations of the methodology as well as plans for future work are discussed.

finite element method

Applied Virtual Reality Research and Applications at NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center

A Virtual Reality (VR) applications program has been under development at NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) since 1989. The objectives of the MSFC VR Applications Program are to develop, assess, validate, and utilize VR in hardware development, operations development and support, mission operations training and science training. Before this technology can be utilized with confidence in these applications, it must be validated for each particular class of application. That is, the precision and reliability with which it maps onto real settings and scenarios, representative of a class, must be calculated and assessed. The approach of the MSFC VR Applications Program is to develop and validate appropriate virtual environments and associated object kinematic and behavior attributes for specific classes of applications. These application-specific environments and associated simulations will be validated, where possible, through empirical comparisons with existing, accepted tools and methodologies. These validated VR analytical tools will then be available for use in the design and development of space systems and operations and in training and mission support systems. Specific validation studies for selected classes of applications have been completed or are currently underway. These include macro-ergonomic "control-room class" design analysis, Spacelab stowage reconfiguration training, a full-body micro-gravity functional reach simulator, and a gross anatomy teaching simulator. This paper describes the MSFC VR Applications Program and the validation studies.

Hale, Joseph P.

Applied virtual reality in aerospace design

A virtual reality (VR) applications program has been under development at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) since 1989. The objectives of the MSFC VR Applications Program are to develop, assess, validate, and utilize VR in hardware development, operations development and support, mission operations training and science training. Before VR can be used with confidence in a particular application, VR must be validated for that class of applications. For that reason, specific validation studies for selected classes of applications have been proposed and are currently underway. These include macro-ergonomic 'control room class' design analysis, Spacelab stowage reconfiguration training, a full-body microgravity functional reach simulator, a gross anatomy teaching simulator, and micro-ergonomic design analysis. This paper describes the MSFC VR Applications Program and the validation studies.

Hale, Joseph P.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMM v4.0.

medical equipment

Pilot In-Trail Procedure Validation Simulation Study

A Human-In-The-Loop experiment was conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) to investigate the viability of the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) concept from a flight crew perspective, by placing participating airline pilots in a simulated oceanic flight environment. The test subject pilots used new onboard avionics equipment that provided improved information about nearby traffic and enabled them, when specific criteria were met, to request an ITP flight level change referencing one or two nearby aircraft that might otherwise block the flight level change. The subject pilots subjective assessments of ITP validity and acceptability were measured via questionnaires and discussions, and their objective performance in appropriately selecting, requesting, and performing ITP flight level changes was evaluated for each simulated flight scenario. Objective performance and subjective workload assessment data from the experiment s test conditions were analyzed for statistical and operational significance and are reported in the paper. Based on these results, suggestions are made to further improve the ITP.

Bussink, Frank J. L.

Study to validate the Non-Interference Performance Assessment (NIPA) technique

The NIPA (Non-Interference Performance Assessment) technique involves direct observation of group verbal activities by trained observers who rate the emotional content (affect) of each verbal interaction as either positive, negative, or neutral. During the test, in which four men were confined for 90 consecutive days, feasibility of the NIPA technique was demonstrated and observer reliability was verified. However, the validity of the test was not proved because an independent criterion measure of morale for the confined crew was lacking. There were indications, however, that NIPA measures were tracking changes in crew morale. At approximately the two-thirds point (Days 60 to 70), morale apparently fell dramatically for a period of about ten days, and simultaneously NIPA measure of positive verbalization decreased in number. A need was indicated for a separate study to apply the NIPA technique under experimental conditions and using a clearly defined criterion measure against which the ability of NIPA observations to truly measure morale changes could be determined.

Seeman, J. S.

SCALE 6.3 Validation: Radiation Shielding

Safe and reliable use of scientific and engineering computer codes requires validation for the types of applications in which they will be used. An example in the nuclear reactor engineering and licensing field is radiation transport employed in shielding analyses. The validity of computer codes for shielding applications is demonstrated in this report for SCALE version 6.3.0. Representative benchmarks corresponding to shielding analyses are selected for the validation study. Typical measurement results analyzed from these benchmarks include neutron fluxes, detector count rates, detector energy response functions, neutron and gamma dose rates, neutron activation rates and activities, neutron leakage fluxes, and skyshine dose rates. Thousands of points of comparison between measurement and calculation are presented in this work. Other than rare outliers typically explained by either a lack of information or large uncertainties in the experiment conditions, material, or dimensions, the Monaco with Automated Variance Reduction using Importance Calculations (MAVRIC) radiation transport computer code with built-in variance reduction methods distributed with the SCALE computer code system agrees well with the measurement results. In selected benchmarks, MAVRIC is also compared to Monte Carlo N- Particle® (MCNP® ) 1 calculations. Both computer codes generally agree well within the estimated uncertainties. With the release of SCALE 6.3.0, Shift was integrated as an alternative transport solver in MAVRIC, denoted MAVRIC-Shift. Although the traditional MAVRIC using Monaco was used primarily in this validation study, many results have also been generated using MAVRIC-Shift. Agreement between MAVRIC-Monaco and MAVRIC-Shift is generally very good. The benchmarks presented in this report were obtained from reliable sources such as the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook, the Shielding Integral Benchmark Archive & Database, and other shielding validation work found in the literature. Additional datapoints and benchmarks will be added to future versions of this report to expand the shielding validation suite.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY

Global Summary MGS TES Data and Mars-Gram Validation

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2001) is an engineering-level Mars atmosphere model widely used for many Mars mission applications. From 0-80 km, it is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM), while above 80 km it is based on University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model. Mars-GRAM 2001 and MGCM use surface topograph$ from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Validation studies are described comparing Mars-GRAM with a global summary data set of Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data. TES averages and standard deviations were assembled from binned TES data which covered surface to approx. 40 km, over more than a full Mars year (February, 1999 - June, 2001, just before start of a Mars global dust storm). TES data were binned in 10-by-10 degree latitude-longitude bins (i.e. 36 longitude bins by 19 latitude bins), 12 seasonal bins (based on 30 degree increments of Ls angle). Bin averages and standard deviations were assembled at 23 data levels (temperature at 21 pressure levels, plus surface temperature and surface pressure). Two time-of day bins were used: local time near 2 or 14 hours local time). Two dust optical depth bins wereused: infrared optical depth either less than or greater than 0.25 (which corresponds to visible optical depth either less than or greater than about 0.5). For interests in aerocapture and precision entry and landing, comparisons focused on atmospheric density. TES densities versus height were computed from TES temperature versus pressure, using assumptions of perfect gas law and hydrostatics. Mars-GRAM validation studies used density ratio (TES/Mars-GRAM) evaluated at data bin center points in space and time. Observed average TES/Mars-GRAM density ratios were generally 1+/-0.05, except at high altitudes (15-30 km, depending on season) and high latitudes (> 45 deg N), or at most altitudes in the southern hemisphere at Ls approx. 90 and 180deg). Compared to TES averages for a given latitude and season, TES data had average density standard deviation about the mean of approx. 65-10.5% (varying with height) for all data, or approx. 5-12%, depending on time of day and dust optical depth. Average standard deviation of TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio was 8.9% for local time 2 hours and 7.1% for local time 14 hours. Thus standard deviation of observed TES/Mars-GRAM density ratio, evaluated at matching positions and times, is about the same as the standard deviation of TES data about the TES mean value at a given position and season.

Justus, C.

Experimental Study for Validation of Resilient Response of Controls - Thrust 2 Controls Assessment

The focus of this project is to design, execute, and analyze experiments around resilience response. As part of the Resilience through Data-Driven, Intelligently Designed Control (RD2C) initiative, this project builds upon the previously designed control algorithms and experiments. It designs detailed uses cases to test RD2C-developed mitigation schemes in specific realistic scenarios, analyze and save the measurement data sets. Having a high-confidence and consistent data set is crucial for identifying relevant metrics to describe the system resilience in specific real-life-like scenarios of power grid operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION