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DOE OSTI2020

Pacific decadal oscillation remotely forced by the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans

Abstract The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the leading mode of Pacific decadal sea surface temperature variability, arises mainly from combinations of regional air-sea interaction within the North Pacific Ocean and remote forcing, such as from the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic. Because of such a combination of mechanisms, a question remains as to how much PDO variability originates from these regions. To better understand PDO variability, the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic impacts on the PDO are examined using several 3-dimensional partial ocean data assimilation experiments conducted with two global climate models: the CESM1.0 and MIROC3.2m. In these partial assimilation experiments, the climate models are constrained by observed temperature and salinity anomalies, one solely in the Atlantic basin and the other solely in the equatorial Pacific basin, but are allowed to evolve freely in other regions. These experiments demonstrate that, in addition to the tropical Pacific’s role in driving PDO variability, the Atlantic can affect PDO variability by modulating the tropical Pacific climate through two proposed processes. One is the equatorial pathway, in which tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability causes an El Niño-like SST response in the equatorial Pacific through the reorganization of the global Walker circulation. The other is the north tropical pathway, where low-frequency SST variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation induces a Matsuno-Gill type atmospheric response in the tropical Atlantic-Pacific sectors north of the equator. These results provide a quantitative assessment suggesting that 12–29% of PDO variance originates from the Atlantic Ocean and 40–44% from the tropical Pacific. The remaining 27–48% of the variance is inferred to arise from other processes such as regional ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Pacific and possibly teleconnections from the Indian Ocean.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal and tidal variations in hydrologic inputs drive salt marsh porewater nitrate dynamics

Salt marshes remove terrestrially derived nutrients en route to coasts. While these systems play a critical role in improving water quality, we still have a limited understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of biogeochemically reactive solutes and processes within salt marshes. We implemented a high-frequency sampling system to monitor sub-hourly nitrate (NO$^{–}_{3}$) concentrations in salt marsh porewater at Elkhorn Slough in central California, USA. We instrumented three marsh positions along an elevation gradient subjected to different amounts of tidal inundation, which we predicted would lead to varied biogeochemical characteristics and hydrological interactions. At each marsh position, we continuously monitored porewater NO$^{–}_{3}$ concentrations at depths of 10, 30, and 50 cm and porewater levels measured at 70 cm depth over seven deployments of ~10 days each that spanned seasonal wet/dry periods common to Mediterranean climates. We quantified tidal event hysteresis between NO$^{–}_{3}$ and water level to understand how NO$^{–}_{3}$ concentrations and sources fluctuate across tidal cycles. In dry periods, the NO$^{–}_{3}$-porewater level relationship indicated that the NO$^{–}_{3}$ source was likely estuarine surface water that flooded the transect during high tides and the salt marsh was a NO$^{–}_{3}$ sink. In wet periods, the NO$^{–}_{3}$-porewater level relationship suggested the salt marsh was a source of NO$^{–}_{3}$. Finally, these findings suggest that tidal and seasonal hydrologic fluxes together control NO$^{–}_{3}$ porewater dynamics and export and influence ecological processes in coastal environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

High-Frequency Density Oscillations from a Plasma Source Used for Simulating Low-Earth Orbit Plasma Environment

We present data from ground-based, vacuum-chamber tests demonstrating the ability to modulate the output of a plasma source capable of producing a low-Earth orbit (LEO) type plasma. We obtained plasma oscillations up to 2.5 kHz impingent on stationary test equipment, which corresponds to meter-level ionospheric structures in LEO. This plasma source is, therefore, suitable for developing scientific instruments that measure the LEO plasma environment, in situ, with meter-level spatial resolution. Measurements were made using a fixed-bias collector and an electrometer sampling at 40 kHz. A mechanical aperture was established at the output of the plasma source via two concentric grids. The outer grid was free to rotate in the azimuthal direction with respect to the fixed inner grid. An identical, alternating hole pattern in the two grids resulted in a variable aperture that cycles through 90 open/close cycles per revolution. The frequency of the plasma oscillations is limited by the mechanism used to spin the grids and the bearing assembly on which the grids rotate. Higher frequencies are obtainable by upgrading the drive mechanism, allowing the possibility of centimeter-level spatial resolution.

McTernan, Jesse K.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Deep learning for time series forecasting: a survey of recent advances

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, such as finance, healthcare, transportation, and scientific computing. In recent years, deep learning has become a powerful tool for modeling complex temporal patterns and improving forecasting accuracy. This survey provides an overview of recent deep learning approaches for time series forecasting, involving various architectures including RNNs, CNNs, GNNs, transformers, large language models, MLP-based models, and diffusion models. We first identify key challenges in the field, such as temporal dependency, efficiency, and cross-variable dependency, which drive the development of forecasting techniques. Then, the general advantages and limitations of each architecture are discussed to contextualize their adaptation in time series forecasting. Furthermore, we highlight promising design trends like multi-scale modeling, decomposition, and frequency-domain techniques, which are shaping the future of the field. This paper serves as a compact reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand the current landscape and future trajectory of deep learning in time series forecasting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2009

Optical Injection Locking of a VCSEL in an OEO

Optical injection locking has been demonstrated to be effective as a means of stabilizing the wavelength of light emitted by a vertical-cavity surface- emitting laser (VCSEL) that is an active element in the frequency-control loop of an opto-electronic oscillator (OEO) designed to implement an atomic clock based on an electromagnetically- induced-transparency resonance. This particular optical-injection- locking scheme is expected to enable the development of small, low-power, high-stability atomic clocks that would be suitable for use in applications involving precise navigation and/or communication. In one essential aspect of operation of an OEO of the type described above, a microwave modulation signal is coupled into the VCSEL. Heretofore, it has been well known that the wavelength of light emitted by a VCSEL depends on its temperature and drive current, necessitating thorough stabilization of these operational parameters. Recently, it was discovered that the wavelength also depends on the microwave power coupled into the VCSEL. Inasmuch as the microwave power circulating in the frequency-control loop is a dynamic frequency-control variable (and, hence, cannot be stabilized), there arises a need for another means of stabilizing the wavelength. The present optical-injection-locking scheme satisfies the need for a means to stabilize the wavelength against microwave- power fluctuations. It is also expected to afford stabilization against temperature and current fluctuations. In an experiment performed to demonstrate this scheme, wavelength locking was observed when about 200 W of the output power of a commercial tunable diode laser was injected into a commercial VCSEL, designed to operate in the wavelength range of 795+/-3 nm, that was generating about 200 microW of optical power. (The use of relatively high injection power levels is a usual practice in injection locking of VCSELs.)

Strekalov, Dmitry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tidal frequencies and quasiperiodic subsurface water level variations dominate redox dynamics in a salt marsh system

Salt marshes are hotspots of nutrient processing en route to sensitive coastal environments. Whilst our understanding of these systems has improved over the years, we still have limited knowledge of the spatiotemporal variability of critical biogeochemical drivers within salt marshes. Sea-level rise will continue to force change on salt marsh functioning, highlighting the urgency of filling this knowledge gap. Our study was conducted in a central California estuary experiencing extensive marsh drowning and relative sea-level rise, making it a model system for such an investigation. Here we instrumented three marsh positions subjected to different degrees of tidal inundation (6.7%, 8.9%, and 11.2% of the time for the upper, middle, and lower marsh positions, respectively), providing locations with varied biogeochemical characteristics and hydrological interactions at the site. We continuously monitored redox potential (Eh) at depths of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 m, subsurface water levels (WL), and temperature at 0.7 m depth at each marsh position. To understand how drivers of subsurface biogeochemical processes fluctuate across tidal cycles, we used wavelet analyses to explain the interactions between Eh and WL. We found that tidal forcing significantly affects key drivers of biogeochemical processes by imparting controls on Eh variability, likely driving subsurface hydro-biogeochemistry of the salt marsh. Wavelet coherence showed that the Eh-WL relationship is nonlinear, and their lead–lag relationship is variable. We found that precipitation events perturb Eh at depth over timescales of hours, even though WL shows relatively minimal change during events. Furthermore, this work highlights the importance of high frequency in situ measurements, such as Eh, to help explain factors that govern subsurface biogeochemistry and hydrological processes in salt marshes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1980

A new approach to active control of rotorcraft vibration

A state-variable feedback approach is utilized for active control of rotorcraft vibration. Fuselage accelerations are passed through undamped second-order filters with resonant frequencies at N/rev. The resulting outputs contain predominantly the N/rev vibration components, phase shifted by 180 deg, and are used to drive the blade pitch to cancel this component of fuselage vibration. The linear-quadratic-gaussian (LQG) method is used to design a feedback control system utilizing these filtered accelerations. The design is based on a nine-degree-of-freedom linear model of the Rotor System Research Aircraft (RSRA) in hover and is evaluated on a nonlinear blade-element simulation of the RSRA for this flight condition. The system is shown to essentially eliminate vibrations at N/rev in all axes. The required blade-pitch amplitude is within the capability of conventional actuators at the N/rev frequency.

Gupta, N. K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Variable speed induction motor operation from a 20-kHz power bus

Induction motors are recognized for their simple rugged construction. To date, however, their application to variable speed or servo drives was hampered by limitations on their control. Induction motor drives tend to be complex and to display troublesome low speed characteristics due in part to nonsinusoidal driving voltages. A technique was developed which involves direct synthesis of sinusoidal driving voltages from a high frequency power bus and independent control of frequency and voltages. Separation of frequency and voltage allows independent control of rotor and stator flux, full four quadrant operation, and instantaneous torque control. Recent test results, current status of the technology, and proposed aerospace applications will be discussed.

Hansen, Irving G.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Variable speed induction motor operation from a 20-kHz power bus

Induction motors are recognized for their simple rugged construction to date, however, their application to variable speed or servo drives has been hampered by limitations on their control. Induction motor drives tend to be complex and to display troublesome low speed characteristics due in part to nonsinusoidal driving voltages. A technique was developed which involves direct synthesis of sinusoidal driving voltages from a high frequency power bus and independent control of frequency and voltages. Separation offrequency and voltage allows independent control of rotor and stator flux, full four-quadrant operation, and instantaneous torque control. Recent test results, current status of the technology, and proposed aerospace applications will be discussed.

Hansen, Irving G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Trends in best-in-class energy-efficient technologies for room air conditioners

Improving the efficiency of room air conditioners (RACs) could provide significant energy and associated emissions savings, particularly in emerging economies with hot climates where the cooling demand is expected to increase dramatically. To help accelerate efficiency improvements, this study identifies “best-in-class” high-efficiency RAC components and products. The findings show that manufacturers tend to minimize manufacturing costs by using RAC designs that are readily available or standardized to their production, and they share components across various models. High-efficiency RAC models use advanced compressor technologies optimized at a low frequency, large heat exchangers with thermodynamically effective materials and designs, highly efficient direct current fan motors, advanced metering devices, and smart sensors for temperature and humidity control. Recently RAC manufacturers have been improving seasonal efficiency – better reflecting part-load operation – especially via variable-speed (inverter) drives for compressor motors. Recent highest-efficiency RAC models use low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants, having transitioned from conventional high-GWP refrigerants, in regions where RACs that use these low-GWP refrigerants are commercially available. Recently demonstrated innovative technologies show trends toward smart hybrid designs, evaporative cooling, and solid-state materials beyond the conventional vapor-compression technology. This information could help policymakers improve their RAC market-transformation programs to align with the most-efficient global technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2019

Quasi-periodicity of Supermassive Binary Black Hole Accretion Approaching Merger

In this paper we continue the first ever study of magnetized mini-disks coupled to circumbinary accretion in a supermassive binary black hole (SMBBH) approaching merger reported in Bowen et al. We extend this simulation from 3 to 12 binary orbital periods. We find that relativistic SMBBH accretion acts as a resonant cavity, where quasi-periodic oscillations tied to the frequency at which the black hole's (BH's) orbital phase matches a nonlinear m = 1 density feature, or "lump," in the circumbinary accretion disk permeate the system. Here, the rate of mass accretion onto each of the mini-disks around the BHs is modulated at the beat frequency between the binary frequency and the lump's mean orbital frequency, i.e., ${{\rm{\Omega }}}_{\mathrm{beat}}={{\rm{\Omega }}}_{\mathrm{bin}}-{\bar{{\rm{\Omega }}}}_{\mathrm{lump}}$, while the total mass accretion rate of this equal-mass binary is modulated at two different frequencies, $\gtrsim {\bar{{\rm{\Omega }}}}_{\mathrm{lump}}$ and $\approx 2{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{\mathrm{beat}}$. The instantaneous rotation rate of the lump itself is also modulated at two frequencies close to the modulation frequencies of the total accretion rate, ${\bar{{\rm{\Omega }}}}_{\mathrm{lump}}$ and $2{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{\mathrm{beat}}$. Because of the compact nature of the mini-disks in SMBBHs approaching merger, the inflow times within the mini-disks are comparable to the period on which their mass supply varies, so that their masses—and the accretion rates they supply to their BHs—are strongly modulated at the same frequency. In essence, the azimuthal symmetry of the circumbinary disk is broken by the dynamics of orbits near a binary, and this m = 1 asymmetry then drives quasi-periodic variation throughout the system, including both accretion and disk-feeding. In SMBBHs approaching merger, such time variability could introduce distinctive, increasingly rapid, fluctuations in their electromagnetic emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2024

Variability and Distribution of Nighttime Equatorial to Mid Latitude Ionospheric Irregularities and Vertical Plasma Drift Observed by FORMOSAT-5 Advanced Ionospheric Probe In-Situ Measurements from 2017 – 2020

Irregularities in ionospheric plasma distribution can result in severe scintillation and disruption to the radio frequencies utilized for satellite communications and navigation. In the low and mid latitudes, these irregularities can include Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) and Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). EPBs are irregularities manifesting in low latitude nighttime ionosphere plasma density that can extend along magnetic field lines with zonal scales on the order of 100 km or less, while TIDs are propagating wave disturbances. High frequency in-situ measurements of ionospheric plasma aboard spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are a direct measurement of irregularities in plasma density and are therefore valuable for resolving EPB and TID occurrences, variability, and relation to other ionospheric parameters that are believed to play a driving role in the formation of such irregularities. In this study, we utilize observations taken over a three-year period between 2017 and 2020 by the Advanced Ionospheric Probe (AIP) carried aboard the FORMOSAT-5 satellite to examine the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of equatorial to mid latitude ionospheric irregularities and vertical ion drift during this time. AIP provides in-situ measurements of ion density and vertical ion drift in the equatorial to mid latitude ionosphere at approximately 720 km altitude with local times between 22:00 – 23:00 local time. Our global scale results resolve distinct and inter-annually recurrent seasonal patterns in the distribution of nighttime ionospheric irregularities and vertical plasma drift during this time. Elevated occurrences of ion density irregularities are resolved along the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) latitudes, while notable occurrences with variability consistent with EPBs also observed along the low and equatorial magnetic latitudes. Zonal variability of equatorial irregularities consistent with the signatures of nonmigrating atmospheric tides are observed. It is also notable that the occurrences and geographic distribution of ion density irregularities showed a considerable level of interannual variability, especially at mid latitudes over the South Atlantic and Southern African sectors, which showed much higher levels of irregularities in 2017–––2018, compared to 2019 and 2020. In comparison, the spatial and interannual variation of the co-located vertical ion drifts were much more consistent during the years examined, indicating that the driver for the observed interannual variability in ion density irregularities cannot be attributed to the vertical ion drift at the same time and location of the observations. This highlights the need for in-situ instruments distributed across multiple satellites in different local time zones.

ionosphere↗

DOE OSTI2017

Impact of Weak Agostic Interactions in Nickel Electrocatalysts for Hydrogen Oxidation

To understand how H2 binding and oxidation is influenced by [Ni(PR2NR'2)2]2+ PR2NR'2 catalysts with H2 binding energies close to thermoneutral, two [Ni(PPh2NR'2)2]2+ (R = Me or C14H29) complexes with phenyl substituents on phosphorous and varying alkyl chain lengths on the pendant amine were studied. In the solid state, [Ni(PPh2NMe2)2]2+ exhibits an anagostic interaction between the Ni(II) center and the a-CH3 of the pendant amine, and DFT and variable-temperature 31P NMR experiments suggest than the anagostic interaction persists in solution. The equilibrium constants for H2 addition to these complexes was measured by 31P NMR spectroscopy, affording free energies of H2 addition (?G°H2) of –0.8 kcal mol–1 in benzonitrile and –1.6 to –2.3 kcal mol–1 in THF. The anagostic interaction contributes to the low driving force for H2 binding by stabilizing the four-coordinate Ni(II) species prior to binding of H2. The pseudo-first order rate constants for H2 addition at 1 atm were measured by variable scan rate cyclic voltammetry, and were found to be similar for both complexes, less than 0.2 s–1 in benzonitrile and 3 –6 s–1 in THF. In the presence of exogenous base and H2 , turnover frequencies of electrocatalytic H2 oxidation were measured to be less than 0.2 s–1 in benzonitrile and 4 –9 s–1 in THF. These complexes are slower electrocatalysts for H2 oxidation than previously studied [Ni(PR2NR'2)2]2+ complexes due to a competition between H2 binding and formation of the anagostic interaction. However, the decrease in catalytic rate is accompanied by a beneficial 130 mV decrease in overpotential. This research was supported as part of the Center for Molecular Electrocatalysis, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences. Computational resources were provided at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Mass spectrometry experiments were performed in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, a DOE national scientific user facility sponsored by the DOE’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research and located and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The authors thank Dr. Rosalie Chu for mass spectroscopy analysis. PNNL is operated by Battelle for DOE.

Klug, Christina↗

DOE OSTI2022

Review of Wave Energy Converter Power Take-Off Systems, Testing Practices, and Evaluation Metrics: Preprint

While the field of wave energy has been the subject of numerical simulation, scale model testing, and precommercial project testing for decades, wave energy technologies remain in the early stages of development and must continuing proving themselves as a promising modern renewable energy field. One of the difficulties that wave energy systems have been struggling to overcome is the design of highly efficient energy conversion systems that can convert the mechanical power, derived from the oscillation of wave activated bodies, into another useful product. Often the power take-off (PTO) is defined as the single unit responsible for converting mechanical power into another usable form such as electricity, pressurized fluid, compressed air, and others. The PTO, and the entire power conversion chain (PCC), is of great importance as it affects not only how efficient wave power is converted into electricity, but also contributes to the mass, size, structural dynamics, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the wave energy converter (WEC). Unlike wind and solar, there is no industrial standard device, or devices, for wave energy conversion and this diversity is transferred to the PTO system. The majority of current WEC PTO systems incorporate a mechanical or hydraulic drive train, power generator, and an electrical control system. The challenge of WEC PTO designs is designing a mechanical-to-electrical component that can efficiently convert irregular, bi-directional, low frequency and low alternating velocity wave motions. While gross average power levels can be predicted in advance, the variable wave elevation input has to be converted into smooth electrical output and hence usually necessitates some type of energy storage system, such as battery storage, accumulator super capacitors, etc., or other means of compensation such as an array of devices. One of the primary challenges for wave energy converter systems is the fluctuating nature of wave resources, which require WEC components to be designed to handle loads (i.e. torques, forces, and powers) that are many times greater than the average load. This approach requires a much greater PTO capacity than the average power output and indicates a higher cost. In addition, supporting mechanical coupling and or gearing can be added to the PCC to help alleviate the difficulties with transmission and control of fluctuating large loads with low frequencies (indicative of wave forcing) into smaller loads at higher frequencies (optimum for conventional electrical machine design) can quickly increase the complexity of the PCC which could result in a greater number of failure modes and increased maintenance costs. All of the previous points demonstrate how the PTO influences WEC dynamics, reliability, performance and cost which are critical design factors. This paper further explores these topics by providing a review of the state-of-the-art PTO systems currently under development, how these novel PTO systems are tested and derisked prior to precommercial deployment, and the evaluation metrics historically used to differentiate between PTO designs and how they can be improved to support control co-design focused development of wave energy systems.

laboratory testing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Future projections of wind patterns in California with the variable-resolution CESM: a clustering analysis approach

Wind energy production is expected to be affected by shifts in wind patterns that will accompany climate change. However, many questions remain on the magnitude and character of this impact, especially on regional scales. In this study, clustering is used to group and analyze large-scale wind patterns in California using model simulations from the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM). Specifically, simulations have been produced that cover historical (1980–2000), mid-century (2030–2050), and end-of-century (2080–2100) time periods. Once clustered, observed changes to wind patterns can be analyzed in terms of both the change in frequency of those clusters and changes to winds within-clusters. Statistically significant capacity factors changes have been found at all five wind plant sites. Further, decomposition of the capacity factor changes into frequency changes and within-cluster changes enables a better understanding of their drivers. A further examination of the synoptic-scale fields associated with each cluster then provides a better understanding of how changes to large-scale meteorological fields are important for driving changes in localized wind speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Four-Dimensional Carbon Cycle of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in the global carbon cycle, dominating the oceanic uptake of heat and carbon added by anthropogenic activities and modulating atmospheric carbon concentrations in past, present, and future climates. However, the remote and extreme conditions found there make the Southern Ocean perpetually one of the most difficult places on the planet to observe and to model, resulting in significant and persistent uncertainties in our knowledge of the oceanic carbon cycle there. The flow of carbon in the Southern Ocean is traditionally understood using a zonal mean framework, in which the meridional overturning circulation drives the latitudinal variability observed in both air–sea flux and interior ocean carbon concentration. However, recent advances, based largely on expanded observation and modeling capabilities in the region, reveal the importance of processes acting at smaller scales, including basin-scale zonal asymmetries in mixed-layer depth, mesoscale eddies, and high-frequency atmospheric variability. Assessing the current state of knowledge and remaining gaps emphasizes the need to move beyond the zonal mean picture and embrace a four-dimensional understanding of the carbon cycle in the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spring Dust in Colorado Plateau: Transport Pathways and Interannual Variability Derived From Two Decades of MERRA‐2 Reanalysis

Spring dust storms in the U.S. Southwest significantly impact environmental and human systems, yet their climatological patterns and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. Using two decades of MERRA-2 reanalysis data and self-organizing map clustering, we identified four distinct dust transport pathways from surrounding and remote deserts for the top 10% of spring dust events impacting the Colorado Plateau: (a) intense southwesterly near-surface transport where eastward upward transport is blocked by topography, (b) substantial remote transport plus weaker surface emissions, (c) moderate southwesterly transport with stronger upper-level transport, and (d) rare northwesterly pattern linked to the Great Basin sources, which accounts for 38%, 14%, 37%, and 11% of total events, respectively. The frequency and intensity of these events strongly correlate with large-scale climate variability, with increased dust events during La Niña. Our results provide a robust framework for improving seasonal dust forecasts and understanding future dust dynamics under climate change.

aerosol transport↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗