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NASA NTRS2009

Fully Automated Detection of Cloud and Aerosol Layers in the CALIPSO Lidar Measurements

Accurate knowledge of the vertical and horizontal extent of clouds and aerosols in the earth s atmosphere is critical in assessing the planet s radiation budget and for advancing human understanding of climate change issues. To retrieve this fundamental information from the elastic backscatter lidar data acquired during the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission, a selective, iterated boundary location (SIBYL) algorithm has been developed and deployed. SIBYL accomplishes its goals by integrating an adaptive context-sensitive profile scanner into an iterated multiresolution spatial averaging scheme. This paper provides an in-depth overview of the architecture and performance of the SIBYL algorithm. It begins with a brief review of the theory of target detection in noise-contaminated signals, and an enumeration of the practical constraints levied on the retrieval scheme by the design of the lidar hardware, the geometry of a space-based remote sensing platform, and the spatial variability of the measurement targets. Detailed descriptions are then provided for both the adaptive threshold algorithm used to detect features of interest within individual lidar profiles and the fully automated multiresolution averaging engine within which this profile scanner functions. The resulting fusion of profile scanner and averaging engine is specifically designed to optimize the trade-offs between the widely varying signal-to-noise ratio of the measurements and the disparate spatial resolutions of the detection targets. Throughout the paper, specific algorithm performance details are illustrated using examples drawn from the existing CALIPSO dataset. Overall performance is established by comparisons to existing layer height distributions obtained by other airborne and space-based lidars.

Vaughan, Mark A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Crosson, William L↗

NASA NTRS2012

Effects of Cloud Horizontal Inhomogeneity and Drizzle on Remote Sensing of Cloud Droplet Effective Radius: Case Studies Based on Large-eddy Simulations

This study investigates effects of drizzle and cloud horizontal inhomogeneity on cloud effective radius (re) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). In order to identify the relative importance of various factors, we developed a MODIS cloud property retrieval simulator based on the combination of large-eddy simulations (LES) and radiative transfer computations. The case studies based on synthetic LES cloud fields indicate that at high spatial resolution (100 m) 3-D radiative transfer effects, such as illumination and shadowing, can induce significant differences between retrievals ofre based on reflectance at 2.1 m (re,2.1) and 3.7 m (re,3.7). It is also found that 3-D effects tend to have stronger impact onre,2.1 than re,3.7, leading to positive difference between the two (re,3.72.1) from illumination and negative re,3.72.1from shadowing. The cancellation of opposing 3-D effects leads to overall reasonable agreement betweenre,2.1 and re,3.7 at high spatial resolution as far as domain averages are concerned. At resolutions similar to MODIS, however, re,2.1 is systematically larger than re,3.7when averaged over the LES domain, with the difference exhibiting a threshold-like dependence on bothre,2.1and an index of the sub-pixel variability in reflectance (H), consistent with MODIS observations. In the LES cases studied, drizzle does not strongly impact reretrievals at either wavelength. It is also found that opposing 3-D radiative transfer effects partly cancel each other when cloud reflectance is aggregated from high spatial resolution to MODIS resolution, resulting in a weaker net impact of 3-D radiative effects onre retrievals. The large difference at MODIS resolution between re,3.7 and re,2.1 for highly inhomogeneous pixels with H 0.4 can be largely attributed to what we refer to as the plane-parallelrebias, which is attributable to the impact of sub-pixel level horizontal variability of cloud optical thickness onre retrievals and is greater for re,2.1 than re,3.7. These results suggest that there are substantial uncertainties attributable to 3-D radiative effects and plane-parallelre bias in the MODIS re,2.1retrievals for pixels with strong sub-pixel scale variability, and theH index can be used to identify these uncertainties.

Zhang, Zhibo↗

NASA NTRS2013

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-11363-DND

The key to the vicarious calibration of historical satellites relies on invariant targets, such as the moon, Dome C, and deserts. Deep convective clouds (DCC) also show promise of being a stable invariant or predictable target viewable by all satellites, since they behave as solar diffusers. However DCC have not been well characterized for calibration. Ten years of well-calibrated MODIS is now available. DCC can easily be identified using IR thresholds, where the IR calibration can be traced to the onboard blackbodies. The natural variability of DCC albedo will be analyzed geographically and seasonally, especially difference of convection initiated over land or ocean.

D R Doelling↗

NASA NTRS2024

Stratospheric Temperature and Ozone Impacts of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Water Vapor Injection

The January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai underwater volcano injected a large amount of water vapor into the mid-stratosphere. This study uses model simulations to investigate the resulting stratospheric impacts out to 2031. Maximum radiatively-driven model temperature changes occur in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropics in April–May 2022, with warming of ∼1 K in the lower stratosphere and cooling of 3 K in the mid-stratosphere. The radiative cooling combined with adiabatic cooling driven by the quasi-biennial oscillation meridional circulation explains the near-record cold anomaly observed in the SH subtropical mid-stratosphere. Projected ozone responses maximize in 2023–2024 as the water vapor plume is transported globally throughout the stratosphere and mesosphere. The excess H2O increases the OH radical, causing a negative global ozone response (2%–10%) in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere due to increased odd hydrogen-ozone loss, and a small positive ozone response (0.5%–1%) in the mid-stratosphere due to interference of the NOx catalytic loss cycle by the additional OH. In the lower stratosphere, the excess H2O is projected to increase polar stratospheric clouds and springtime halogen-ozone loss, enhancing the Antarctic ozone hole by 25–30 DU in 2023. Arctic impact is small, with maximum additional ozone loss of 4–5 DU projected in spring 2024. These responses diminish after 2024 to be quite small by 2031, as the excess H2O is removed from the stratosphere with a 2.5-year e-folding time. Given the year-to-year variability of the stratosphere, the magnitudes of these ozone responses may be below the threshold of detectability in observations.

stratosphere↗

NASA NTRS2006

Construction of Protograph LDPC Codes with Linear Minimum Distance

A construction method for protograph-based LDPC codes that simultaneously achieve low iterative decoding threshold and linear minimum distance is proposed. We start with a high-rate protograph LDPC code with variable node degrees of at least 3. Lower rate codes are obtained by splitting check nodes and connecting them by degree-2 nodes. This guarantees the linear minimum distance property for the lower-rate codes. Excluding checks connected to degree-1 nodes, we show that the number of degree-2 nodes should be at most one less than the number of checks for the protograph LDPC code to have linear minimum distance. Iterative decoding thresholds are obtained by using the reciprocal channel approximation. Thresholds are lowered by using either precoding or at least one very high-degree node in the base protograph. A family of high- to low-rate codes with minimum distance linearly increasing in block size and with capacity-approaching performance thresholds is presented. FPGA simulation results for a few example codes show that the proposed codes perform as predicted.

Low-density parity-check (LDPC)↗

NASA NTRS1985

Human factors studies of control configurations for advanced transport aircraft

This research investigated the threshold levels of display luminance contrast which were required to interpret static, achromatic, integrated displays of primary flight information. A four-factor within-subjects design was used to investigate the influences of type of flight variable information, the level of ambient illumination, the type of control input, and the size of the display symbology on the setting of these interpretability thresholds. A three-alternative forced choice paradigm was used in conjunction with the method of adjustments to obtain a measure of the upper limen of display luminance contrast needed to interpret a complex display of primary flight information. The pattern of results and the absolute magnitudes of the luminance contrast settings were found to be in good agreement with previously reported data from psychophysical investigations of display luminance contrast requirements.

Snyder, Harry L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A Modeling Investigation of Thermal and Strain Induced Recovery and Nonlinear Hardening in Potential Based Viscoplasticity

Specific forms for both the Gibb's and the complementary dissipation potentials were chosen such that a complete potential based multiaxial, isothermal, viscoplastic model was obtained. This model in general possesses three internal state variables (two scalars associated with dislocation density and one tensor associated with dislocation motion) both thermal and dynamic recovery mechanisms, and nonlinear kinematic hardening. This general model, although possessing associated flow and evolutionary laws, is shown to emulate three distinct classes of theories found in the literature, by modification of the driving threshold function F. A parametric study was performed on a specialized nondimensional multiaxial form containing only a single tensorial internal state variable (i.e., internal stress). The study was conducted with the idea of examining the impact of including a strain-induced recovery mechanism and the compliance operator, derived from the Gibb's potential, on the uniaxial and multiaxial response. One important finding was that inclusion of strain recovery provided the needed flexibility in modeling stress-strain and creep response of metals at low homologous temperatures, without adversely affecting the high temperature response. Furthermore, for nonproportional loading paths, the inclusion of the compliance operator had a significant influence on the multiaxial response, but had no influence on either uniaxial or proportional load histories.

Arnold, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Comparison of satellite based cloud retrieval methods for cirrus and stratocumulus

One difficulty in using satellite remote sensing data is the spatial variability of cloud properties on scales smaller than most meteorological satellite fields of view (approx. 4 to 8 km). The variation is examined of satellite derived cloud cover as a function of the satellite sensor spatial resolution for seven cloud cover retrieval methods: (1) Reflectance threshold; (2) Temperature threshold; (3) ISCCP; (4) HBTM (Hybrid Bispectral Threshold Method); (5) NCLE; (6) Spatial coherence; and (7) Functional Box Counting. The first two methods are simple single spectral thresholds which specify a satellite pixel as cloud filled if the measured reflectance is greater than the threshold, or if the measured equivalent blackbody temperature is less than the threshold. The next three methods are bispectral, using one visible wavelength window channel and one thermal infrared wavelength window. The final two algorithms rely on the spatial variability within the cloud field to determine cloud cover. Spatial coherence assumes only that the cloud field occurs in a single layer and that the clouds are optically thick in the infrared window. LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) data is used to test the spatial resolution dependence of the cloud algorithms. The ISCCP bispectral threshold applied to the full resolution data is used as the reference or truth cloud cover, after which the retrieval methods are applied to the spatial resolutions. Studies of the fraction of pixels in the scene at cloud edge, and of the profile of reflectance and temperature near cloud edges indicate an uncertainty in the reference cloud fraction of 1 to 5 percent.

Parker, Lindsay↗

NASA NTRS2010

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Igniter/Promoter Material Effects on Burn Length Variability in Astm G124 Standard Testing

ASTM G124 refers to the “Standard Test Method for Determining the Combustion Behavior of Metallic Materials in Oxygen Enriched Atmospheres”. Major test parameters are well defined in the standard and a detailed description of how to set up and conduct the test is also included. However, one variable - the igniter/promoter system - is not clearly restricted or specified. Due to the fact that this igniter/promoter system is not definitively specified, multiple materials have been used. This lack of specificity in igniter/promoter material was identified as a potential source of variability in test results, and as such has been selected for this study as a parameter to analyze and identify if the igniters/promoters should be standardized. For that purpose, several igniter/promoter systems have been selected (that were currently in use at various laboratories) which would be tested via ASTM G124 with Inconel 718 test rods. Testing was conducted over two phases – the first for screening promoter effects in the transition region of the material, and the second for comparing measured flammability thresholds identified through testing by each igniter/promoter type. The results of this study have found that igniter/promoter material is not a statistically significant factor in the variability of burn length in test samples. Initial results showing variability was likely due to small sample size, as the issue became less pronounced once more samples were tested and more data generated. Each of the igniter/promoter systems tested were effective at determining flammability thresholds and so it is concluded that no specific igniter/promoter needs to be identified in the ASTM G124 test standard.

oxygen compatibility↗

NASA NTRS1989

Simulation evaluation of TIMER, a time-based, terminal air traffic, flow-management concept

A description of a time-based, extended terminal area ATC concept called Traffic Intelligence for the Management of Efficient Runway scheduling (TIMER) and the results of a fast-time evaluation are presented. The TIMER concept is intended to bridge the gap between today's ATC system and a future automated time-based ATC system. The TIMER concept integrates en route metering, fuel-efficient cruise and profile descents, terminal time-based sequencing and spacing together with computer-generated controller aids, to improve delivery precision for fuller use of runway capacity. Simulation results identify and show the effects and interactions of such key variables as horizon of control location, delivery time error at both the metering fix and runway threshold, aircraft separation requirements, delay discounting, wind, aircraft heading and speed errors, and knowledge of final approach speed.

Credeur, Leonard↗

NASA NTRS1990

Scientific uses and technical implementation of a variable gravity centrifuge on Space Station Freedom

The potential need and science requirements for a centrifuge to be designed and flown on Space Station Freedom are discussed, with a focus on a design concept for a centrifuge developed at NASA Ames. Applications identified for the centrifuge include fundamental studies in which gravity is a variable under experimental control, the need to provide a 1-g control, attempts to discover the threshold value of gravitation force for psychological response, and an effort to determine the effects of intermittent hypergravity. Science requirements specify the largest possible diameter at approximately 2.5 m, gravity levels ranging from 0.01 to 2 g, a nominal ramp-up rate of 0.01 g/sec, and life support for plants and animals. Ground-based studies using rats and squirrel monkeys on small-diameter centrifuges have demonstrated that animals can adapt to centrifugation at gravity gradients higher than those normally used in ground-based hypergravity studies.

Johnson, C. C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The two variables in the triple system HR 6469 = V819 Her: One eclipsing, one spotted

A complete BV light curve, from 14 nights of good data obtained with the Vanderbilt University-Tennessee State University (VU-TSU) automatic telescope, are presented and solved with the Wilson-Devinney program. Third light is evaluated, with the companion star brighter by 0.58(sup m) in V and 0.11(sup m) in B. The eclipses are partial. Inferred color indices yield F2 V and F8 V for the eclipsing pair and G8 IV-III for the distant companion star. After removing the variability due to eclipses, we study the residual variability of the G8 IV-III star over the ten years 1982 to 1992. Each yearly light curve is fit with a two-spot model. Three relatively long-lived spots are identified, with rotation periods of 85.9(sup d), 85.9(sup d), and 86.1(sup d). The weak and intermittent variability is understood because the G8 IV-III star has a Rossby number at the threshold for the onset of heavy spottedness.

Van Hamme, Walter V.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Quantum Adiabatic Optimization and Combinatorial Landscapes

In this paper we analyze the performance of the Quantum Adiabatic Evolution (QAE) algorithm on a variant of Satisfiability problem for an ensemble of random graphs parametrized by the ratio of clauses to variables, gamma = M / N. We introduce a set of macroscopic parameters (landscapes) and put forward an ansatz of universality for random bit flips. We then formulate the problem of finding the smallest eigenvalue and the excitation gap as a statistical mechanics problem. We use the so-called annealing approximation with a refinement that a finite set of macroscopic variables (verses only energy) is used, and are able to show the existence of a dynamic threshold gamma = gammad, beyond which QAE should take an exponentially long time to find a solution. We compare the results for extended and simplified sets of landscapes and provide numerical evidence in support of our universality ansatz.

Smelyanskiy, V. N.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.

Disease Outbreaks↗