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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Alaskan carbon-climate feedbacks will be weaker than inferred from short-term experiments

Climate warming is occurring fastest at high latitudes. Based on short-term field experiments, this warming is projected to stimulate soil organic matter decomposition, and promote a positive feedback to climate change. We show here that the tightly coupled, nonlinear nature of high-latitude ecosystems implies that short-term (<10 year) warming experiments produce emergent ecosystem carbon stock temperature sensitivities inconsistent with emergent multi-decadal responses. We first demonstrate that a well-tested mechanistic ecosystem model accurately represents observed carbon cycle and active layer depth responses to short-term summer warming in four diverse Alaskan sites. We then show that short-term warming manipulations do not capture the non-linear, long-term dynamics of vegetation, and thereby soil organic matter, that occur in response to thermal, hydrological, and nutrient transformations belowground. Our results demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity in multi-decadal Arctic carbon cycle trajectories and argue for more mechanistic models to improve predictive capabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil Temperature and Moisture within the Kougarok Fire Complex, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 86, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019-2023

Daily averages of soil temperature and moisture measured once every hour at different heights located at Intensive Monitoring Stations within the Kougarok Fire Complex, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 86 site. Data were retrieved annually from 2019-2023. Package contains 21 *.CSV data files plus a file level metadata *.CSV, data dictionary *.CSV, data file inventory *.CSV, and sensor location site map *.JPG. Data files have header rows, NaN fields indicate invalid or missing data, and negative vertical offsets are above ground.The Kougarok tundra fire complex (KFC) is located north of Nome and the Kigluaik Mountains, near Quartz Creek and the Kougarok River. The site is accessed by foot from the end of the Nome-Taylor Highway (mile marker 86; also called the Kougarok or Beam Road). The KFC burned in six major fires in the decades since 1950 (Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, unpublished data). Lightning ignited five of these fires (1971, 1997, 2015, and 2019) and one was human caused (2002). The mosaic of overlapping fire scars allows for the study of repeat fires in the tundra which, until recently, was not a common phenomenon outside the boreal forest in Alaska. Our reference unburned tundra fire site is south of the KFC located at mile marker 80 of the Nome-Taylor Highway.The two most recent fires are the Mingvk Lake (2015; 21,698 acres burned from 7/27/2015 to 9/28/2015) and Garfield Creek (2019; 422 acres burned from 7/31/2019 to 8/20/19). The Mingvk Lake fire scar includes areas that burned 1-4x (1971, 1997, 2002), while the entirety of the Garfield Creek fire scar has burned 2x previously (1971, 2002).Previous research at the KFC focused on permafrost (Liljedahl et al. 2007; Narita et al. 2015; Iwahana et al. 2016; Tsuyuzaki, Iwahana, and Saito 2017) and vegetation (Narita et al. 2015; Hollingsworth et al. 2021) response to fire. The central Seward Peninsula is characterized by continuous permafrost with a thickness of 15 to 30 m and a mean active layer thickness of 56 cm (Hinzman et al. 2003). Sloping hills with mixed shrub–tussock tundra and tussock tundra vegetation in the uplands are characteristic of the region. Three micrometeorological towers near the Kougarok field site recorded a mean annual temperature of −2.4°C, mean January temperature of −23.1°C, mean July temperature of +11°C, and mean summer rainfall (June–August) of 94 mm from 2000 to 2006 (Liljedahl et al. 2007).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Patch-level CO2 and CH4 fluxes and porewater concentrations in experimental wetlands, 5 and 10 PPT saltwater intrusion simulations, Louisiana 2023-2024

This dataset containes carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) flux measurements collected from wetland vegetation patches dominated by Typha domingensis and Panicum hemitomon to assess greenhouse gas flux responses to experimental saltwater intrusion (SWI) pulses. Measurements were conducted before, during, and after simulated SWI events at target salinities of approximately 5 parts per thousand (ppt) with durations of 6, 10, and 17 days and 10 ppt with a duration of 48 days, alongside a control wetland (with no salinity added, flood manipulation only). These data were generated to evaluate how the magnitude and duration of SWI alter wetland carbon exchange and related biogeochemical and plant responses. This data package includes flux measurements from the wetland surface (i.e, soil/water surface and enclosed vegetation) and from the soil/water surface only; porewater and surface water concentrations of CO2 and CH4; salinity, pH, electrical conductivity collected in porewater (at 5, 10, and 20 cm soil depths) and in surface water; soil redox potential; leaf spectral indices, leaf vapor pressure deficit, stomatal conductance; water level, salinity, and photosynthetically active radiation; and aboveground biomass.

EARTH SCIENCE > AGRICULTURE > SOILS > SOIL RESPIRA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intraspecific Variation for Leaf Physiological and Root Morphological Adaptation to Drought Stress in Alfalfa ( Medicago sativa L.)

Drought stress reduces crop biomass yield and the profitability of rainfed agricultural systems. Evaluation of populations or accessions adapted to diverse geographical and agro-climatic environments sheds light on beneficial plant responses to enhance and optimize yield in resource-limited environments. This study used the morphological and physiological characteristics of leaves and roots from two different alfalfa subspecies during progressive drought stress imposed on controlled and field conditions. Two different soils (Experiments 1 and 2) imposed water stress at different stress intensities and crop stages in the controlled environment. Algorithm-based image analysis of leaves and root systems revealed key morphological and physiological traits associated with biomass yield under stress. The Medicago sativa subspecies (ssp.) sativa population, PI478573, had smaller leaves and maintained higher chlorophyll content (CC), leaf water potential, and osmotic potential under water stress. In contrast, M. sativa ssp. varia, PI502521, had larger leaves, a robust root system, and more biomass yield. In the field study, an unmanned aerial vehicle survey revealed PI502521 to have a higher normalized difference vegetation index (vegetation cover and plant health characteristics) throughout the cropping season, whereas PI478573 values were low during the hot summer and yielded low biomass in both irrigated and rainfed treatments. RhizoVision Explorer image analysis of excavated roots revealed a smaller diameter and a narrow root angle as target traits to increase alfalfa biomass yield irrespective of water availability. Root architectural traits such as network area, solidity, volume, surface area, and maximum radius exhibited significant variation at the genotype level only under limited water availability. Different drought-adaptive strategies identified across subspecies populations will benefit the plant under varying levels of water limitation and facilitate the development of alfalfa cultivars suitable across a broad range of growing conditions. The alleles from both subspecies will enable the development of drought-tolerant alfalfa with enhanced productivity under limited water availability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Response of Ecosystem Productivity to High Vapor Pressure Deficit and Low Soil Moisture: Lessons Learned From the Global Eddy-Covariance Observations

Although there is mounting concern about how high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and low soil moisture (SM) affect ecosystem productivity, their relative importance is still under debate. Here, we comprehensively quantified the relative impacts of these two factors on ecosystem gross primary production (GPP) using observations from a global network of eddy-covariance towers and two approaches (sensitivity analysis and linear regression model). Both approaches agree that a higher percentage of sites experience GPP reduction from high VPD than from low SM over the growing season. However, the constraint of high VPD and low SM on GPP reduction is tightly linked with climates and plant functional types. Humid and mesic ecosystems including forests and grasslands are dominated by VPD, while the semi-arid and arid ecosystems including shrublands and savannas are dominated by SM. The varying dominant role of these two factors on GPP is closely related to plant stomatal behavior, as predicted by a stomatal conductance model. Additionally, we highlight the non-linear impact of SM on GPP during droughts and the possible underestimation of the SM effects for deep-rooted plants when only using surface-layer SM. Our results shed light on a better understanding of the impacts of VPD and SM on vegetation productivity, with important implications for modeling the response and feedback of ecosystem dynamics to current and future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

SPRUCE: Shrub-Layer Vegetation Biomass Collection Metadata, Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota, August 2025

This data set contains metadata associated with shrub-layer vegetation samples collected from the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment in August 2025. This sample metadata contains no analytical results and is a reference for analytical datasets. To ensure accessibility and discoverability, each sample was assigned an International Generic Sample Number (IGSN), a persistent identifier, using System for Earth and Extraterrestrial Sample Registration (SESAR). These samples were used for downstream analysis by multiple teams of researchers the results of which will be reported separately. This dataset contains one data file in comma separate (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format. An aliquot of most samples is stored in the SPRUCE archive and may be available for further analysis by request. See below under 7 Sample Access. Access this collection event on SESAR https://doi.org/10.58052/IEJ9B069L. To inquire about obtaining archived samples for analysis, reach out using the Contact Sample Owner form located on the bottom of the landing page in SESAR.

Birkebak, Joshua [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000955611494)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Arctic tundra shrubification: a review of mechanisms and impacts on ecosystem carbon balance

Abstract Vegetation composition shifts, and in particular, shrub expansion across the Arctic tundra are some of the most important and widely observed responses of high-latitude ecosystems to rapid climate warming. These changes in vegetation potentially alter ecosystem carbon balances by affecting a complex set of soil–plant–atmosphere interactions. In this review, we synthesize the literature on (a) observed shrub expansion, (b) key climatic and environmental controls and mechanisms that affect shrub expansion, (c) impacts of shrub expansion on ecosystem carbon balance, and (d) research gaps and future directions to improve process representations in land models. A broad range of evidence, including in-situ observations, warming experiments, and remotely sensed vegetation indices have shown increases in growth and abundance of woody plants, particularly tall deciduous shrubs, and advancing shrublines across the circumpolar Arctic. This recent shrub expansion is affected by several interacting factors including climate warming, accelerated nutrient cycling, changing disturbance regimes, and local variation in topography and hydrology. Under warmer conditions, tall deciduous shrubs can be more competitive than other plant functional types in tundra ecosystems because of their taller maximum canopy heights and often dense canopy structure. Competitive abilities of tall deciduous shrubs vs herbaceous plants are also controlled by variation in traits that affect carbon and nutrient investments and retention strategies in leaves, stems, and roots. Overall, shrub expansion may affect tundra carbon balances by enhancing ecosystem carbon uptake and altering ecosystem respiration, and through complex feedback mechanisms that affect snowpack dynamics, permafrost degradation, surface energy balance, and litter inputs. Observed and projected tall deciduous shrub expansion and the subsequent effects on surface energy and carbon balances may alter feedbacks to the climate system. Land models, including those integrated in Earth System Models, need to account for differences in plant traits that control competitive interactions to accurately predict decadal- to centennial-scale tundra vegetation and carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining long‐term model predictions for woody growth using tropical tree rings

The strength and persistence of the tropical carbon sink hinges on the long-term responses of woody growth to climatic variations and increasing CO 2 . However, the sensitivity of tropical woody growth to these environmental changes is poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in growth predictions. Here, we used tree ring records from a Southeast Asian tropical forest to constrain ED2.2-hydro, a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit vegetation demography. Specifically, we assessed individual-level woody growth responses to historical climate variability and increases in atmospheric CO 2 (C a ). When forced with historical C a , ED2.2-hydro reproduced the magnitude of increases in intercellular CO 2 concentration (a major determinant of photosynthesis) estimated from tree ring carbon isotope records. In contrast, simulated growth trends were considerably larger than those obtained from tree rings, suggesting that woody biomass production efficiency (WBPE = woody biomass production:gross primary productivity) was overestimated by the model. The estimated WBPE decline under increasing C a based on model-data discrepancy was comparable to or stronger than (depending on tree species and size) the observed WBPE changes from a multi-year mature-forest CO 2 fertilization experiment. In addition, we found that ED2.2-hydro generally overestimated climatic sensitivity of woody growth, especially for late-successional plant functional types. The model-data discrepancy in growth sensitivity to climate was likely caused by underestimating WBPE in hot and dry years due to commonly used model assumptions on carbon use efficiency and allocation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to constrain model predictions of individual tree-level growth sensitivity to C a and climate against tropical tree-ring data. Our results suggest that improving model processes related to WBPE is crucial to obtain better predictions of tropical forest responses to droughts and increasing C a . Finally, more accurate parameterization of WBPE will likely reduce the stimulation of woody growth by C a rise predicted by biosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Declining groundwater storage expected to amplify mountain streamflow reductions in a warmer world

Abstract Groundwater interactions with mountain streams are often simplified in model projections, potentially leading to inaccurate estimates of streamflow response to climate change. Here, using a high-resolution, integrated hydrological model extending 400 m into the subsurface, we find groundwater an important and stable source of historical streamflow in a mountainous watershed of the Colorado River. In a warmer climate, increased forest water use is predicted to reduce groundwater recharge resulting in groundwater storage loss. Losses are expected to be most severe during dry years and cannot recover to historical levels even during simulated wet periods. Groundwater depletion substantially reduces annual streamflow with intermittent conditions predicted when precipitation is low. Expanding results across the region suggests groundwater declines will be highest in the Colorado Headwater and Gunnison basins. Our research highlights the tight coupling of vegetation and groundwater dynamics and that excluding explicit groundwater response to warming may underestimate future reductions in mountain streamflow.

Carroll, Rosemary W. H. (ORCID:0000000293028074)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Temporal nitrogen dynamics in intensively managed loblolly pine early stand development

Forest production is strongly dependent on nutrient uptake; however, sustainable management of intensively managed plantations requires an improved understanding of this relationship when fertilization occurs frequently across short rotations. Here, we studied temporal nitrogen (N) concentration ([N]) and content (Nc) dynamics under different silvicultural practices (herbicide, fertilization, and planting density) throughout early loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stand development (5 years). We describe relationships of [N] and Nc of different stand components (foliage, branches, stem, roots, and competing vegetation) with carbon and biomass. Our results demonstrate that [N] of perennial loblolly tissues do not respond to silvicultural practices and progressively decrease through development. While foliar [N] was most responsive to resource availability, it was not consistent across time. Controlling competing vegetation was crucial to promote the use of site resources by the crop tree and increased loblolly Nc by >500%. However, increased N uptake and expedited growth is dependent upon fertilization early in stand development. At age 5, herbicide plus reduced and full fertilization rates exhibited similar aboveground Nc, which was 32% higher than with herbicide only. Increasing planting density resulted in increased above- and belowground loblolly Nc; however, increases in Nc were not proportional with increases in planting density. Net primary productivity and N uptake were linearly related, but age/development strongly controlled N use efficiency. Our study helps to understand complex relationships between N, biomass, and silvicultural practices during early stand development and demonstrates that temporal evaluation of nutrient dynamics is crucial to better understand loblolly pine growth, carbon sequestration potential, and to inform sustainable silvicultural practices across short rotations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO 2 emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO 2 mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using phenology to unravel differential soil water use and productivity in a semiarid savanna

Savannas are water-limited ecosystems characterized by two dominant plant types: trees and an understory primarily made up grass. Different phenology and root structures of these plant types complicate how savanna primary productivity responds to changes in water availability. We tested the hypothesis that productivity in savannas is controlled by the temporal and vertical distribution of soil water content (SWC) and differences in growing season length of understory and tree plant functional types. To quantify the relationship between tree, understory, and savanna-wide phenology and productivity, we used PhenoCam and satellite observations surrounding an eddy covariance tower at a semiarid savanna site in Arizona, USA. We distinguished between SWC across two different depth intervals (shallow, <0–30 cm and deep, >30–100 cm). We found that tree greenness increased with SWC at both depths, while understory greenness was only sensitive to the shallower SWC measurements. Onset of ecosystem dormancy, estimated from satellite observations close to the eddy covariance tower, explained more variability in annual gross primary productivity (GPP) than in other phenometrics. Higher SWC led to an extended growing season, caused by delayed dormancy in trees, but the understory showed no evidence of delayed dormancy in wetter periods. We infer that the timing of ecosystem scale dormancy, driven by trees, is important in understanding changes in a savanna's GPP. These findings highlight the important effects of rainfall during the winter. These findings suggest that savanna GPP is conditional on different responses to moisture availability in each of the dominant vegetation components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging

Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revegetation affects the response of land surface phenology to climate in Loess Plateau, China

Land surface phenology (LSP), defined as the plant's growth rhythm retrieved from satellite sensing products, is proven to shift with climate change and affect the carbon cycles of terrestrial ecosystems. Global afforested area is largely increasing and consequently affecting local and global climate. However, how and to what extent revegetation affects LSP remains relatively unexplored. Here we investigated the difference in four LSPs (i.e., greenup, maturity, senescence, and dormancy) and the response of LSP to climate between restored and native vegetation on Loess Plateau, China, where a remarkable process of vegetation restoration happened during 1982–2015. Most study regions showed a longer growing season (LOS) over time, specifically, with a slight delay in greenup but a relatively large delay in senescence. We found that air temperature was the dominant factor affecting greenup and maturity, while precipitation mostly controlled the senescence and dormancy in the study area. Under similar climate conditions, the LSP of restored vegetation (i.e., restored forest and grassland) showed a significant difference (p < 0.05) from native ones during 1999–2015. Compared to the native forest, restored forest from cropland and grassland showed a delayed greenup date by 0.3 and 3.6 days (p < 0.05) and an advanced dormancy date of 6.6 and 9.0 days (p < 0.05), respectively. Furthermore, the restored vegetation became less sensitive to air temperature than native vegetation, while the restored forest was more sensitive to precipitation, and its growth was affected by the water limitation to a larger extent in the study area. In conclusion, our study highlights the necessity of considering land use management and its effect on the LSP change to better understand the effect of afforestation on global climate and carbon cycles.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong Local Evaporative Cooling Over Land Due to Atmospheric Aerosols

Abstract Aerosols can enhance terrestrial productivity through increased absorption of solar radiation by the shaded portion of the plant canopy—the diffuse radiation fertilization effect. Although this process can, in principle, alter surface evaporation due to the coupling between plant water loss and carbon uptake, with the potential to change the surface temperature, aerosol‐climate interactions have been traditionally viewed in light of the radiative effects within the atmosphere. Here, we develop a modeling framework that combines global atmosphere and land model simulations with a conceptual diagnostic tool to investigate these interactions from a surface energy budget perspective. Aerosols increase the terrestrial evaporative fraction, or the portion of net incoming energy consumed by evaporation, by over 4% globally and as much as ∼40% regionally. The main mechanism for this is the increase in energy allocation from sensible to latent heat due to global dimming (reduction in global shortwave radiation) and slightly augmented by diffuse radiation fertilization. In regions with moderately dense vegetation (leaf area index >2), the local surface cooling response to aerosols is dominated by this evaporative pathway, not the reduction in incident radiation. Diffuse radiation fertilization alone has a stronger impact on gross primary productivity (+2.18 Pg C y −1 or +1.8%) than on land evaporation (+0.18 W m −2 or +0.48%) and surface temperature (−0.01 K). Our results suggest that it is important for land surface models to distinguish between quantity (change in total magnitude) and quality (change in diffuse fraction) of radiative forcing for properly simulating surface climate.

Chakraborty, TC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Leaf Trait Plasticity Alters Competitive Ability and Functioning of Simulated Tropical Trees in Response to Elevated Carbon Dioxide

The response of tropical ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) remains a critical uncertainty in projections of future climate. Here, we investigate how leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO 2 alters projections of tropical forest competitive dynamics and functioning. We use vegetation demographic model simulations to quantify how plasticity in leaf mass per area and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio alter the responses of carbon uptake, evapotranspiration, and competitive ability to a doubling of CO 2 in a tropical forest. Observationally constrained leaf trait plasticity in response to CO 2 fertilization reduces the degree to which tropical tree carbon uptake is affected by a doubling of CO 2 (up to -14.7% as compared to a case with no plasticity; 95% confidence interval [CI95%] -14.4 to -15.0). It also diminishes evapotranspiration (up to -7.0%, CI95% -6.4 to -7.7), and lowers competitive ability in comparison to a tree with no plasticity. Consideration of leaf trait plasticity to elevated CO 2 lowers tropical ecosystem carbon uptake and evapotranspirative cooling in the absence of changes in plant-type abundance. However, “plastic” responses to high CO 2 which maintain higher levels of plant productivity, many of which fall outside of the observed range of response, are potentially more competitively advantageous, thus, including changes in plant type abundance may mitigate these decreases in ecosystem functioning. Models that explicitly represent competition between plants with alternative leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO 2 are needed to capture these influences on tropical forest functioning and large-scale climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grounding our Understanding of the Impacts of Boreal Forest Expansion on Shallow Cumulus Clouds with a Simple Modeling Framework

Abstract The expansion of the boreal forest poleward is a potentially important driver of feedbacks between the land surface and Arctic climate. A growing body of work has highlighted the importance of differences in evaporative resistance between different possible future Arctic land covers, which in turn alters humidity and cloudiness in the boundary layer, for these feedbacks. While thus far this problem has been studied primarily with complex Earth system models, we turn to a locally focused, idealized model capable of diagnosing and testing the sensitivity of first-order processes connecting vegetation, the atmospheric boundary layer, and low clouds in this critical region. This allows us to benchmark the mechanisms and results at the center of predictions from larger-scale simulations. A surface dominated by broadleaf trees, characterized by higher albedo and lower surface evaporative resistance, drives cooling and moistening of the boundary layer relative to a surface of needleleaf trees, characterized by lower albedo and higher surface evaporative resistance. Differences in evaporative resistance between these hypothetical Arctic vegetation covers are of equal importance to changes in albedo for the initial response of the boundary layer to boreal expansion, even with our idealized approach. However, compensation between the elevation of the lifting condensation level (LCL) and more rapid growth of the mixed layer over higher evaporative resistance surfaces can minimize changes in the favorability of shallow clouds over different land cover types under some conditions. We then perform two tests on the sensitivity of this compensating effect, to changes in water availability, represented first by a reduction in boundary layer humidity and then by both a reduction in humidity and soil moisture available to our vegetation surface. Finally, given the importance of this potential LCL–mixed-layer height compensation in our idealized modeling results, we look to determine its relevance in observational data from a field campaign in boreal Finland. These observations do confirm that such a coupling plays an important role in cumulus-topped boundary layers over a needleleaf forest surface. While our results confirm some underlying mechanisms at the center of prior work with Earth system models, they also provide motivation for future work to constrain the impact of boreal forest expansion. This will include both large eddy simulations to examine the impact of processes and feedbacks not resolved by a mixed-layer model, as well as a more systematic evaluation and comparison of relevant observations at the site in Finland and sites from prior boreal field campaigns. Significance Statement Clouds and vegetation are both important components of the climate system that interact across a range of scales. These interactions are central to understanding how changes at the land surface feedback on climate. For example, if a forest expands or recedes, diagnosing how that will impact clouds will determine whether you predict warming or cooling temperatures from that shift in the forest area. These predictions are often made with complex Earth system models, but we look to a more idealized representation of the land–atmosphere system to diagnose how shallow clouds should respond to changes in surface properties with different scenarios of boreal forest expansion at a more foundational level. This both grounds our understanding of previous analysis and provides helpful direction for future studies of this relevant and impactful land cover change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world's forests

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm-2 yr-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively), influenced by each model's initial forest state. Models captured mature forest carbon content but showed compensating effects between overestimated growth and underestimated mortality rates. This first multi-model benchmarking identifies growth and mortality rates as critical calibration targets and highlights the need to refine postdisturbance establishment conditions for model development. We outline specific benchmarking variables needed to improve predictions of forest responses to environmental change.

demographic vegetation model benchmarking↗