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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

The Application of Satellite-Derived, High-Resolution Land Use/Land Cover Data to Improve Urban Air Quality Model Forecasts

Local and state agencies are responsible for developing state implementation plans to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Numerical models used for this purpose simulate the transport and transformation of criteria pollutants and their precursors. The specification of land use/land cover (LULC) plays an important role in controlling modeled surface meteorology and emissions. NASA researchers have worked with partners and Atlanta stakeholders to incorporate an improved high-resolution LULC dataset for the Atlanta area within their modeling system and to assess meteorological and air quality impacts of Urban Heat Island (UHI) mitigation strategies. The new LULC dataset provides a more accurate representation of land use, has the potential to improve model accuracy, and facilitates prediction of LULC changes. Use of the new LULC dataset for two summertime episodes improved meteorological forecasts, with an existing daytime cold bias of approx. equal to 3 C reduced by 30%. Model performance for ozone prediction did not show improvement. In addition, LULC changes due to Atlanta area urbanization were predicted through 2030, for which model simulations predict higher urban air temperatures. The incorporation of UHI mitigation strategies partially offset this warming trend. The data and modeling methods used are generally applicable to other U.S. cities.

Quattrochi, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationships Between Anomalies of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover, and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiles; atmospheric humidity profiles, percent cloud cover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Near real time products, stating with September 2002, have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. Results in this paper included products through April 2008. The time period studied is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, are shown below, with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. The ability to match this data represents a good test of a model's response to El Nino.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2008

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

The US CLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. What is the role of the land? What is the role of the different ocean basins, including the impact of EL Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and warming trends in the global oceans? The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-1, NCEP/GFS, GFDL/AM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3. In addition, runs were done with the NCEP CFS (coupled atmosphere-ocean) model by employing a novel adjustment technique to nudge the coupled model towards the imposed SST forcing patterns. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2013

Efficient 1.6 Micron Laser Source for Methane DIAL

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and on a per molecule basis has a warming influence 72 times that of carbon dioxide over a 20 year horizon. Therefore, it is important to look at near term radiative effects due to methane to develop mitigation strategies to counteract global warming trends via ground and airborne based measurements systems. These systems require the development of a time-resolved DIAL capability using a narrow-line laser source allowing observation of atmospheric methane on local, regional and global scales. In this work, a demonstrated and efficient nonlinear conversion scheme meeting the performance requirements of a deployable methane DIAL system is presented. By combining a single frequency 1064 nm pump source and a seeded KTP OPO more than 5 mJ of 1.6 μm pulse energy is generated with conversion efficiencies in excess of 20%. Even without active cavity control instrument limited linewidths (50 pm) were achieved with an estimated spectral purity of ~95%. Tunable operation over 400 pm (limited by the tuning range of the seed laser) was also demonstrated. This source demonstrated the critical needs for a methane DIAL system motivating additional development of the technology.

Shuman, Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2014

Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, etc.) dominate the long term climate evolution in the simulations. To better constrain the magnitude and uncertainties of irrigation-forced climate anomalies, irrigation should therefore be considered as another important anthropogenic climate forcing in the next generation of historical climate simulations and multimodel assessments.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2013

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's (GMAO's) GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 percent improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the sub-polar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Decadal Prediction↗
NASA NTRS2015

Causes of the 2011-14 California Drought

The causes of the California drought during November-April winters of 2011/12-2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Nino event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Nina event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west-cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.

California Drought↗
NASA NTRS2020

Hawai'i Water Resources: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Assess Ocean Conditions Leading to the Spread of the Nuisance Red Algae (Chondria tumulosa) in Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, Hawai’i

Chondria tumulosa, a newly discovered red alga, was observed in low abundance in 2016 but has since proliferated and is now smothering and decimating vast expanse of coral reefs in Manawai, located in Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM). If the spread persists, the outbreak of this cryptogenic species could potentially cause region-wide ecosystem degradation. In coordination with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Marine National Monuments of the Pacific and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of National Marine Sanctuaries’ Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, this project created a tool to analyze oceanographic conditions (sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a, water velocity, salinity, turbidity) across the Monument that could potentially be driving the algal spread. The Google Earth Engine tool enabled the partners to visualize oceanographic conditions and gather time-series graphs utilizing Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI), Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and NOAA's Climate Data Record in a user-friendly interface. The team used in situ SST data from subsurface temperature recorders provided by the partners to validate the tool's accuracy. Preliminary statistical analysis of MODIS data found warming trends in SST in Manawai as well as increased chlorophyll-a levels during the summer months in contrast to the control (non-infected) Lalo atoll. The tool did not aim to classify algal presence due to limited availability of higher resolution satellite imagery but instead enabled PMNM managers to monitor conditions that may be conducive to algal growth around the monument to make informed decisions and mitigation practices.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRS2021

Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming

Urbanization is a complex land transformation, not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize it within land surface models and assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and de-coupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15°C, with a warming of 0.24°C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25°C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13°C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.

Lahouari Bounoua↗
NASA NTRS2021

Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States

Future changes to the hydrological cycle are projected in a warming world, and any shifts in drought risk may prove extremely consequential for natural and human systems. In addition to long-term moistening, drying, or warming trends, perturbations to the annual cycle of regional hydroclimate variables may also have substantial impacts. We analyze projected changes in several hydroclimate variables across the continental United States, along with shifts in the amplitude and phase of their annual cycles. We find that even in regions where no robust change in the annual mean is expected, coherent changes to the annual cycle are projected. In particular, we identify robust regional phase shifts toward earlier arrival of peak evaporation in the northern regions, and peak runoff and total soil moisture in the western regions. Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of total and surface soil moisture are also projected, and reflect changes to the annual cycle in surface water supply and demand. Whether changes become detectable above the background noise of internal variability depends strongly on the future scenario considered, and significant changes to the annual cycle are largely avoided in the lowest-forcing scenario.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2019

Examining Seasonal Trends of the Martian Polar Warming with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

The presented work focuses on polar warming as a diagnostic of the mean circulation to increase our understanding of processes that control the mean meridional circulation and transport in the Mars’ middle atmosphere. The NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model is utilized to isolate physical processes to determine their impact on polar warming and its seasonal trends.

Brecht, Amanda S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Statistical Aspects of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones: Trends, Natural Variability, and Global Warming

Statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945- 2005 are examined, including the variation of the yearly frequency of occurrence for various subgroups of storms (all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, major hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes, and category 4/5 hurricanes); the yearly variation of the mean latitude and longitude (genesis location) of all tropical cyclones and hurricanes; and the yearly variation of the mean peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and durations for all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Also examined is the relationship between inferred trends found in the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity and natural variability and global warming, the latter described using surface air temperatures from the Armagh Observatory Armagh, Northern Ireland. Lastly, a simple statistical technique is employed to ascertain the expected level of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclonic activity for the upcoming 2007 season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate-induced shifts in sulfate dynamics regulate anaerobic methane oxidation in a coastal wetland

Anaerobic methane oxidation (AMO) is a key microbial pathway that mitigates methane emissions in coastal wetlands, but the response of AMO to changing global climate remains poorly understood. Here, we assessed the response of AMO to climate change in a brackish coastal wetland using a 5-year field manipulation of warming and elevated carbon dioxide ( e CO 2 ). Sulfate (SO 4 2− )–dependent AMO (S-DAMO) was the predominant AMO process at our study site due to tidal inputs of SO 4 2− . However, SO 4 2− dynamics responded differently to the treatments; warming reduced SO 4 2− concentration by enhancing SO 4 2− reduction, while eCO 2 increased SO 4 2− concentration by enhancing SO 4 2− regeneration. S-DAMO rates mirrored these trends, with warming decreasing S-DAMO rates and e CO 2 stimulating them. These findings underscore the potential of climate change to alter soil AMO activities through changing SO 4 2− dynamics, highlighting the need to incorporate these processes in predictive models for more accurate representations of coastal wetland methane dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of ocean model resolution on understanding the delayed warming of the Southern Ocean

Abstract Currently available historical climate change simulations indicate a relatively delayed Southern Ocean warming, particularly poleward of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) compared much of the rest of the globe. However, even this simulated delayed warming is inconsistent with observational estimates which show a cooling trend poleward of the ACC for the period 1979–2014. A fully coupled model run at two resolutions, i.e. ocean eddy parameterized and ocean eddy resolving, driven by historical and fixed CO2 concentration is used to investigate forced trends south of the ACC. We analyze the 1961–2005 Southern Ocean surface and upper ocean temperatures trends simulated by the model and observational estimates to understand the observed trends in the SO. At both resolutions, the models successfully reproduce the observed warming response for the northern flank of the ACC. The eddy resolving simulations, however, are able to reproduce the observed near Antarctic cooling in contrast to the eddy parameterized simulation which shows a warming trend. The cause of this inconsistency between the observations and the ocean eddy parameterized climate models is still a matter of debate, and we show here results that suggest resolved ocean meso-scale processes may be an integral part of capturing the observed trends in the Southern Ocean.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
NASA NTRS2020

Large Contribution from Anthropogenic Warming to an Emerging North American Megadrought

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.

Anthropogenic warming↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing

Observed temperature changes from 2002 to 2022 reveal a pronounced warming of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropical lower stratosphere, and a cooling of the Antarctic lower stratosphere. In contrast, model simulations of 21st-century stratospheric temperature changes show widespread cooling driven by increasing greenhouse gases, with local warming in the Antarctic lower stratosphere due to ozone healing. We provide evidence that these discrepancies between observed and simulated stratospheric temperature changes are linked to a slowdown of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, particularly in the SH. These changes in the stratospheric circulation are strongest from October through December. This altered circulation warms the SH subtropical lower stratosphere while cooling the Antarctic lower stratosphere, canceling and even reversing the Antarctic ozone recovery that would have occurred in its absence during this period. When circulation changes are accounted for, the SH subtropical lower-stratospheric warming is removed, and Antarctic lower-stratospheric warming is revealed with enhanced ozone healing, highlighting the crucial role of the stratospheric circulation in shaping temperature and ozone changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pervasive Warming Bias in CMIP6 Tropospheric Layers

Abstract The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower‐troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗