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NASA NTRS2020

Leveraging Google Earth Engine User Interface for Semiautomated Wetland Classification in the Great Lakes Basin at 10 m With Optical and Radar Geospatial Datasets

As one of the world’s largest freshwater ecosystems,the Great Lakes Basin houses hundreds of thousands of acres of wetlands that support a variety of crucial ecological and environmental functions at the local, regional, and global levels.Monitoring these wetlands is critical to conservation and restoration efforts, however current methods that rely on field monitoring are labor-intensive, costly, and often outdated. In this study, we present a graphical user interface constructed in Google Earth Engine called the Wetland Extent Tool (WET),which allows semi-automatic wetland classification according to a user-input area of interest and date range. WET composites datasets and conducts multi source, moderate resolution processing utilizing Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, Sentinel-1 C-SAR, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets to classify wetlands in the entire Great Lakes Basin. We evaluated classification results of wetlands, uplands, and open water from May-September 2019, and tested whether SRTM elevation, slope,or the Dynamic Surface Water Extent produced the most accurate results in each Great Lake Basin in conjunction with optical indices and radar composites. We found that elevation produced the most accurate classification in Lake Erie, Michigan,and Ontario, while slope performed best in Lake Huron and Superior. Lake Erie, Michigan, Ontario, and Huron achieved high overall accuracy and identification of wetlands. WET leverages cloud-computing for multi source processing of moderate resolution remote sensing data, and employs a user interface in Google Earth Engine that wetland managers and conservationists can use to monitor wetland extent in the Great Lakes Basin in near real-time.

Vanessa L Valenti↗
NASA NTRS1997

Evolution of Nonlinear Internal Waves in China Seas

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images from ERS-I have been used to study the characteristics of internal waves of Taiwan in the East China Sea, and east of Hainan Island in the South China Sea. Rank-ordered packets of internal solitons propagating shoreward from the edge of the continental shelf were observed in the SAR images. Based on the assumption of a semidiurnal tidal origin, the wave speed can be estimated and is consistent with the internal wave theory. By using the SAR images and hydrographic data, internal waves of elevation have been identified in shallow water due to a thicker mixed layer as compared with the bottom layer on the continental shelf. The generation mechanism includes the influences of the tide and the Kuroshio intrusion across the continental shelf for the formations of elevation internal waves. The effects of water depth on the evolution of solitons and wave packets are modeled by nonlinear Kortweg-deVries (KdV) type equation and linked to satellite image observations. The numerical calculations of internal wave evolution on the continental shelf have been performed and compared with the SAR observations. For a case of depression waves in deep water, the solitons first disintegrate into dispersive wave trains and then evolve to a packet of elevation waves in the shallow water area after they pass through a turning point of approximately equal layer depths has been observed in the SAR image and simulated by numerical model.

Liu, Antony K.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Effects of oral glucose on exercise thermoregulation in men after water immersion

To test the hypothesis elevated blood glucose would attenuate the rise in exercise rectal temperature, six men age 35 plus or minus S.D. 7 years participated in each of three trials by 4-hr water immersion to the neck: (1) 2.0 g/kg body wt of oral glucose (33.8 percent wt./vol.) was consumed followed by 80 min controlled rest (Glu/Rest), and 70 min horizontal supine cycle exercise at 62.8 percent plus or minus S.E. 0.5 percent (1.97 plus or minus 0.02 L/min) of peak O2 uptake followed by 10 min recovery (2) with (Glu/Ex) and (3) without prior flucose (No Glu/Ex). Blood samples were taken at -25, 0, 15, 45, and 68 min of exercise and after plus 10 min of recovery for measurement of hemoglobin, hematocrit, and blood glucose. Both mean skin (T sub sk) (from six sites) and rectal temperatures (T sub re) were monitored continuously. Sweat rate was measured by resistanc hygrometry. The mean of delta PV for the exercise trials was -12.2 plus or minus 2.1 percent. Mean blood glucose for the Glu/Ex trial was higher than that of the No Glu/Ex trial was (108.4 equal or minus 3.9 and 85.6 plus or minus 1.6 mg/dl, respectively, P less than 0.05. At the end of exercise T(sub sk) for the Glu/Ex trial was lower than for No Glu/Ex(32.0 plus or minus 0.3 and 32.4 equals or minus 0.2 C, respectively, P less than 0.05); T(sub re) for the Glu/Ex trial was lower than for No Glu/Es (38.22 plus or minus 0.17 and 38.60 plus or minus 0.11 C, respectively, P less than 0.05); and forearm sweat rate for the Glu/Ex trial (0.34 plus or minus 0.04 and 0.43 plus or minus g/sq cm, respectively, P less than 0.05). These data suggest that elevation of blood glucose prior to horizontal exercise following hypohydration attenuates the increase in body temperature without altering heat production or exercise hypovolemia.

Dearborn, Alan S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Development of Advanced ISS-WPA Catalysts for Organic Oxidation at Reduced Pressure/Temperature

The Water Processor Assembly (WPA) at International Space Station (ISS) processes a waste stream via multi-filtration beds, where inorganic and non-volatile organic contaminants are removed, and a catalytic reactor, where low molecular weight organics not removed by the adsorption process are oxidized at elevated pressure in the presence of oxygen and elevated temperature above the normal water boiling point. Operation at an elevated pressure requires a more complex system design compared to a reactor that could operate at ambient pressure. However, catalysts currently available have insufficient activity to achieve complete oxidation of the organic load at a temperature less than the water boiling point and ambient pressure. Therefore, it is highly desirable to develop a more active and efficient catalyst at ambient pressure and a moderate temperature that is less than water boiling temperature. This paper describes our efforts in developing high efficiency water processing catalysts. Different catalyst support structures and coating metals were investigated in subscale reactors and results were compared against the flight WPA catalyst. Detailed improvements achieved on alternate metal catalysts at ambient pressure and 200 F will also be presented in the paper.

Yu, Ping↗
NASA NTRS1997

Episodic Ocean-Induced CO2 Greenhouse on Mars: Implications for Fluvial Valley Formation

Pulses of CO2 injected into the martian atmosphere more recently than 4 Ga can place the atmosphere into a stable, higher pressure, warmer greenhouse state. One to two bar pulses of CO2 added to the atmosphere during the past several billion years are sufficient to raise global mean temperatures above 240 or 250 K for tens to hundreds of millions of years, even when accounting for CO2 condensation. Over time, the added CO2 is lost to carbonates, the atmosphere collapses and returns to its buffered state. A substantial amount of water could be transported during the greenhouse periods from the surface of a frozen body of water created by outflow channel discharges to higher elevations, despite global temperatures well below freezing. This water, precipitated as snow, could ultimately form fluvial valleys if deposition sites are associated with localized heat sources, such as magmatic intrusions or volcanoes. Thus, if outflow channel discharges were accompanied by the release of sufficient quantities of CO2, a limited hydrological cycle could have resulted that would have been capable of producing geomorphic change sufficient for fluvial erosion and valley formation. Glacial or periglacial landforms would also be a consequence of such a mechanism.

Gulick, V. C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Limits to Cloud Susceptibility

1-kilometer AVHRR observations of ship tracks in low-level clouds off the west coast of the U S. were used to determine limits for the degree to which clouds might be altered by increases in anthropogenic aerosols. Hundreds of tracks were analyzed to determine whether the changes in droplet radii, visible optical depths, and cloud top altitudes that result from the influx of particles from underlying ships were consistent with expectations based on simple models for the indirect effect of aerosols. The models predict substantial increases in sunlight reflected by polluted clouds due to the increases in droplet numbers and cloud liquid water that result from the elevated particle concentrations. Contrary to the model predictions, the analysis of ship tracks revealed a 15-20% reduction in liquid water for the polluted clouds. Studies performed with a large-eddy cloud simulation model suggested that the shortfall in cloud liquid water found in the satellite observations might be attributed to the restriction that the 1-kilometer pixels be completely covered by either polluted or unpolluted cloud. The simulation model revealed that a substantial fraction of the indirect effect is caused by a horizontal redistribution of cloud water in the polluted clouds. Cloud-free gaps in polluted clouds fill in with cloud water while the cloud-free gaps in the surrounding unpolluted clouds remain cloud-free. By limiting the analysis to only overcast pixels, the current study failed to account for the gap-filling predicted by the simulation model. This finding and an analysis of the spatial variability of marine stratus suggest new ways to analyze ship tracks to determine the limit to which particle pollution will alter the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds.

Coakley, James A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Developing Lightning Prediction Tools for the CCAFS Dual-Polarimetric Radar

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama Huntsville are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) to develop improved lightning prediction capabilities for the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar being acquired for use by 45WS and launch weather forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). In particular, these algorithms will focus on lightning onset, cessation and combined lightning-radar applications for convective winds assessment. Research using radar reflectivity (Z) data for prediction of lightning onset has been extensively discussed in the literature and subsequently applied by launch weather forecasters as it pertains to lightning nowcasting. Currently the forecasters apply a relatively straight forward but effective temperature-Z threshold algorithm for assessing the likelihood of lightning onset in a given storm. In addition, a layered VIL above the freezing level product is used as automated guidance for the onset of lightning. Only limited research and field work has been conducted on lightning cessation using Z and vertically-integrated Z for determining cessation. Though not used operationally vertically-integrated Z (basis for VIL) has recently shown promise as a tool for use in nowcasting lightning cessation. The work discussed herein leverages and expands upon these and similar reflectivity-threshold approaches via the application/addition of over two decades of polarimetric radar research focused on distinct multi-parameter radar signatures of ice/mixed-phase initiation and ice-crystal orientation in highly electrified convective clouds. Specifically, our approach is based on numerous previous studies that have observed repeatable patterns in the behavior of the vertical hydrometeor column as it relates to the temporal evolution of differential reflectivity and depolarization (manifested in either LDR or p(sub hv)), development of in-situ mixed and ice phase microphysics, electric fields, and ensuing lightning in the sub-tropical/tropical convection typical of the southeastern U.S., Maritime Continent, and southwestern Amazon. The polarimetric signatures detected in this setting provide a basis for automated 3-D detection of hydrometeor types in fuzzy logic hydrometeor identification algorithms (HID). Our working hypothesis is that improvement in lightning onset warning lead time and specificity for a given storm, relative to application of a Z-threshold algorithm, should arise as a consequence of the ability of dual-polarimetric radar to unambiguously detect and identify (through HID algorithms) the updraft elevation of rain-water cores above the freezing level and subsequent onset of drop freezing, riming, and robust mixed phase processes leading to significant charge separation and lightning. This type of algorithm, though dependent on the quality of the polarimetric data should be less susceptible to variable Z-calibration that can impact a given Z-threshold approach. To facilitate development of the algorithm while the 45WS dual-pol radar is in its current test stages and to evaluate the impact of polarimetric data quality (e.g., modified scan parameters and sampling) on the ensuing algorithms, we are using the ARMOR C-band dual-pol radar in Huntsville combined with N. Alabama LMA data and ARMOR HID algorithms [NCAR algorithm modified for application at C-band] in a testbed fashion. For lightning cessation we are revisiting the application of differential propagation phase variables for the monitoring of ice crystal alignment driven by in-cloud electric fields combined with metrics of ice water path (i.e., vertically integrated reflectivity). Importantly it should be noted that this approach is still very much a research topic and as such, we will explore operational applications that involve radar frequencies other than C-Band by using the UAH MAX X-band dual-pol radar in slow staring modes.

Petersen, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tropospheric Bromine Chemistry: Implications for Present and Pre-industrial Ozone and Mercury

We present a new model for the global tropospheric chemistry of inorganic bromine (Bry) coupled to oxidant-aerosol chemistry in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). Sources of tropospheric Bry include debromination of sea-salt aerosol, photolysis and oxidation of short-lived bromocarbons, and transport from the stratosphere. Comparison to a GOME-2 satellite climatology of tropospheric BrO columns shows that the model can reproduce the observed increase of BrO with latitude, the northern mid-latitudes maximum in winter, and the Arctic maximum in spring. This successful simulation is contingent on the HOBr + HBr reaction taking place in aqueous aerosols and ice clouds. Bromine chemistry in the model decreases tropospheric ozone mixing ratios by <1-8 nmol/mol (6.5% globally), with the largest effects in the northern extratropics in spring. The global mean tropospheric OH concentration decreases by 4 %. Inclusion of bromine chemistry improves the ability of global models (GEOS-Chem and p-TOMCAT) to simulate observed 19th-century ozone and its seasonality. Bromine effects on tropospheric ozone are comparable in the present-day and pre-industrial atmospheres so that estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are minimally affected. Br atom concentrations are 40% higher in the pre-industrial atmosphere due to lower ozone, which would decrease by a factor of 2 the atmospheric lifetime of elemental mercury against oxidation by Br. This suggests that historical anthropogenic mercury emissions may have mostly deposited to northern mid-latitudes, enriching the corresponding surface reservoirs. The persistent rise in background surface ozone at northern mid-latitudes during the past decades could possibly contribute to the observations of elevated mercury in subsurface waters of the North Atlantic.

bromine↗
NASA NTRS2018

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗
NASA NTRS2019

Deriving High-Resolution Reservoir Bathymetry from ICESat-2 Prototype Photon-Counting Lidar and Landsat Imagery

Knowledge of reservoir bathymetry is essential for many studies on terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical processes. However, there are currently no cost-effective approaches to derive reservoir bathymetry at the global scale. This study explores the potential of generating high-resolution global bathymetry using elevation data collected by the 532-nm Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) onboard the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat-2). The novel algorithm was developed and tested using the ICESat-2 airborne prototype, the Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL), with Landsat-based water classifications (from 1982 to 2017). MABEL photon elevations were paired with Landsat water occurrence percentiles to establish the elevation-area (E-A) relationship, which in turn was applied to the percentile image to obtain partial bathymetry over the historic dynamic range of reservoir area. The bathymetry for the central area was projected to achieve the full bathymetry. The bathymetry image was then embedded onto the digital elevation model (DEM). Results were validated over Lake Mead against survey data. Results over four transects show coefficient of determination (R²) values from 0.82 to 0.99 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) values from 1.18 to 2.36 m. In addition, the E-A and elevation-storage (E-S) curves have RMSEs of 1.56 m and 0.08 km³, respectively. Over the entire dynamic reservoir area, the derived bathymetry agrees very well with independent survey data, except for within the highest and lowest percentile bands. With abundant overpassing tracks and high spatial resolution, the newly launched ICESat-2 should enable the derivation of bathymetry over an unprecedented number of reservoirs.

Yao Li↗
NASA NTRS2002

Ageing and water homeostasis

This review outlines current knowledge concerning fluid intake and volume homeostasis in ageing. The physiology of vasopressin is summarized. Studies have been carried out to determine orthostatic changes in plasma volume and to assess the effect of water ingestion in normal subjects, elderly subjects, and patients with dysautonomias. About 14% of plasma volume shifts out of the vasculature within 30 minutes of upright posture. Oral ingestion of water raises blood pressure in individuals with impaired autonomic reflexes and is an important source of noise in blood pressure trials in the elderly. On the average, oral ingestion of 16 ounces (473ml) of water raises blood pressure 11 mmHg in elderly normal subjects. In patients with autonomic impairment, such as multiple system atrophy, strikingly exaggerated pressor effects of water have been seen with blood pressure elevations greater than 75 mmHg not at all uncommon. Ingestion of water is a major determinant of blood pressure in the elderly population. Volume homeostasis is importantly affected by posture and large changes in plasma volume may occur within 30 minutes when upright posture is assumed.

Review↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Active Subglacial Water System in West Antarctica Mapped from Space

Satellite laser altimeter elevation profiles from 2003 to 2006 collected over the lower parts of Whillans and Mercer ice streams, West Antarctica, reveal 14 regions of temporally varying elevation, which we interpret as the surface expression of subglacial water movement. Vertical motion and spatial extent of two of the largest regions are confirmed by satellite image differencing. A major, previously unknown subglacial lake near the grounding line of Whillans Ice Stream is obse~edto drain 2.0 cubic kilometers of water into the ocean over approx.3 years, while elsewhere a similar volume of water is being stored subglacially. These observations reveal a widespread, dynamic subglacial water system that may exert an important control on ice flow and mass balance.

Fricker, Helen Amanda↗
NASA NTRS1982

Map accuracy requirements: The cartographic potential of satellite image data

Cartographic products fall into a variety of classes: topographic maps that are concerned with planimetric information and elevations or heights; thematic maps, which might be used for geology, vegetation, water, or to display these subjects; digital elevation maps that would be produced from digital terrain data; and finally image maps. In terms of satellite applications, thematic maps and image maps are emphasized. The objectives are to consider, first, if resolution will be adequate for the identification of control and for the compilation of map products. Then, second, to define map accuracy standards and to determine the potential for meeting these standards with image data from the film camera, scanner and linear array systems of the 1980s.

Welch, R.↗
NASA NTRS2009

ISS Expeditions 16 & 17: Chemical Analysis Results for Potable Water

During the twelve month span of Expeditions 16 and 17 beginning October of 2007, the chemical quality of the potable water onboard the International Space Station (ISS) was verified safe for crew consumption through the return and chemical analysis of water samples by the Water and Food Analytical Laboratory (WAFAL) at Johnson Space Center (JSC). Reclaimed cabin humidity condensate and Russian ground-supplied water were the principle sources of potable water and for the first time, European groundsupplied water was also available. Although water was transferred from Shuttle to ISS during Expeditions 16 and 17, no Shuttle potable water was consumed during this timeframe. A total of 12 potable water samples were collected using U.S. hardware during Expeditions 16 and 17 and returned on Shuttle flights 1E (STS122), 1JA (STS123), and 1J (STS124). The average sample volume was sufficient for complete chemical characterization to be performed. The results of JSC chemical analyses of these potable water samples are presented in this paper. The WAFAL also received potable water samples for analysis from the Russian side collected inflight with Russian hardware, as well as preflight samples of Rodnik potable water delivered to ISS on Russian Progress vehicles 28 to 30. Analytical results for these additional potable water samples are also reported and discussed herein. Although the potable water supplies available during Expeditions 16 and 17 were judged safe for crew consumption, a recent trending of elevated silver levels in the SVOZV water is a concern for longterm consumption and efforts are being made to lower these levels.

Straub, John E., II↗
NASA NTRS1980

Refraction of microwave signals by water vapor

Tropospheric water vapor causes a refractive path length effect which is typically 5-10% of the 'dry' tropospheric effect and as large as several meters at elevation angles below 5 deg. The vertical water vapor profile is quite variable, and measurements of intensive atmospheric parameters such as temperature and humidity limited to the surface do not adequately predict the refractive effect. It is suggested that a water vapor refraction model that is a function of the amount of precipitable water alone can be successful at low elevation angles. From an extensive study of numerical ray tracings through radiosonde balloon data, such a model has been constructed. The model predicts the effect at all latitudes and elevation angles between 2 and 10 deg to an accuracy of better than 4% (11 cm at 3 deg elevation angle).

Goldfinger, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Maize↗
NASA NTRS1997

Near-Surface Phytoplankton Pigment from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner in the Subantarctic Region Southeast of New Zealand

Primarily based on satellite images, the phytoplankton concentration southeast (down- stream) of New Zealand in the High Nitrate - Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) Subantarctic water between the Subtropical Convergence (STC) and the Polar Front (PF) is believed to be higher than in the remainder of the Pacific Sector. Iron enrichment is assumed to be the reason, To study the question, near-surface phytoplankton pigment estimates from the Coastal Zone Color Scanner for up to 7 yr were reprocessed with particular attention to interference by clouds. Monthly mean images were created for the U,S. JGOFS Box along 170 deg W and means for individual dates calculated for 7 large areas between 170 deg E and 160 deg W, 45 deg and 58 deg S, well offshore of New Zealand and principally between and away from the STC and PF. The areal means are about as low as in other HNLC regions (most values between 0.1 and 0.4 or 0.5 mg/ sq m, with very few winter images; median of seasonal means, 0.26 mg/sq m) except at times near the STC, The higher means tend to occur in late summer and autumn, However, contrary to expectations, neither the PF nor the environs of the Subantarctic Front are distinguished by a zone of increased pigment. Also, of 24 spring-summer images of oceanic islands in mostly pigment-poor water, 17 yielded no recognizable elevated pigment; islands were 5 times surrounded by approximately doubled concentrations (ca 100 km in diameter), and 2 cases may have been associated with an extensive bloom. Inspection of offshore images showed concentrations of 1 greater than or equal to(up to 5) mg/sq m in rare patches of 65 to 200 km size on approximately one-tenth of the dates; such patches were not seen in Sub-antarctic waters of the eastern Pacific Sector. A case is made for Australian airborne iron supply being the cause that, presumably, would enhance large-celled phytoplankton. Since, however, the putative iron supply from the seabed around the oceanic islands or the near-by Campbell Plateau normally does not lead to phytoplankton increase, patches of neritic mesozooplankton advected from the shelves might be another mechanism that generates blooms of small-cetled phytoplankton, but there are no data. These alternatives can easily be field-tested from concentration and size composition of the phytoplankton.

Banse, Karl↗
NASA NTRS2015

Climate-Induced Mortality of Spruce Stands in Belarus

The aim of this work is an analysis of the causes of spruce (Picea abies L.) decline and mortality in Belarus. The analysis was based on forest inventory and Landsat satellite (land cover classification, climate variables (air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, vapor pressure deficit, SPEI drought index)), and GRACE-derived soil moisture estimation (equivalent of water thickness anomalies, EWTA). We found a difference in spatial patterns between dead stands and all stands (i.e., before mortality). Dead stands were located preferentially on relief features with higher water stress risk (i.e., higher elevations, steeper slopes, south and southwestern exposure). Spruce mortality followed a series of repeated droughts between 1990 and 2010. Mortality was negatively correlated with air humidity (r = -0.52), and precipitation (r = -0.57), and positively correlated with the prior year vapor pressure deficit (r = 0.47), and drought increase (r = 0.57). Mortality increased with the increase in occurrence of spring frosts (r = 0.5), and decreased with an increase in winter cloud cover (r = -0.37). Spruce mortality was negatively correlated with snow water accumulation (r = -0.81) and previous year anomalies in water soil content (r = -0.8). Weakened by water stress, spruce stands were attacked by pests and phytopathogens. Overall, spruce mortality in Belarussian forests was caused by drought episodes and drought increase in synergy with pest and phytopathogen attacks. Vast Picea abies mortality in Belarus and adjacent areas of Russia and Eastern Europe is a result of low adaptation of that species to increased drought. This indicates the necessity of spruce replacement by drought-tolerant indigenous (e.g., Pinus sylvestris, Querqus robur) or introduced (e.g., Larix sp. or Pseudotsuga menzieslii) species to obtain sustainable forest growth management.

spruce decline↗