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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Gaussian Process Emulators for Volcanic Ash Dispersion Model Tephra2

It is necessary to predict volcanic ash deposition since falling ash is harmful to human activities. Because simulators built for this purpose are computationally expensive, it is popular to use statistical emulators for geophysical hazard analyses, where a large number of simulations are required. Gaussian stochastic process emulators are able to approximate expensive simulations in an accurate and efficient way. Using a relatively small number of simulation runs, a well-trained emulator can accurately predict simulation outputs at massive new input points in a few seconds. Under different explosive eruption conditions, we constructed Gaussian stochastic process emulators for Tephra2, a simulation tool for estimating the accumulation of volcanic ash over a region. Historical wind records are used as input wind data, without assuming a Gaussian wind speed profile or common wind direction among elevations. While there are several inputs for Tephra2, we use no more than three physically motivated variables as emulator inputs to reduce the computational cost of emulations. The emulator outputs predict the mass of tephra per unit area at 50281 grid points around a predetermined vent location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative comparison of power production and power quality onshore and offshore: a case study from the eastern United States

Abstract. A major issue in quantifying potential power generation from prospective wind energy sites is the lack of observations from heights relevant to modern wind turbines, particularly for offshore where blade tip heights are projected to increase beyond 250 m. We present analyses of uniquely detailed data sets from lidar (light detection and ranging) deployments in New York State and on two buoys in the adjacent New York Bight to examine the relative power generation potential and power quality at these on- and offshore locations. Time series of 10 min wind power production are computed from these wind speeds using the power curve from the International Energy Agency 15 MW reference wind turbine. Given the relatively close proximity of these lidar deployments, they share a common synoptic-scale meteorology and seasonal variability with lowest wind speeds in July and August. Time series of power production from the on- and offshore location are highly spatially correlated with the Spearman rank correlation coefficient dropping below 0.4 for separation distances of approximately 350 km. Hence careful planning of on- and offshore wind farms (i.e., separation of major plants by > 350 km) can be used reduce the system-wide probability of low wind energy power production. Energy density at 150 m height at the offshore buoys is more than 40 % higher, and the Weibull scale parameter is 2 m s−1 higher than at all but one of the land sites. Analyses of power production time series indicate annual energy production is almost twice as high for the two offshore locations. Further, electrical power production quality is higher from the offshore sites that exhibit a lower amplitude of diurnal variability, plus a lower probability of wind speeds below the cut-in and of ramp events of any magnitude. Despite this and the higher resource, the estimated levelized cost of energy (LCoE) is higher from the offshore sites mainly due to the higher infrastructure costs. Nonetheless, the projected LCoE is highly competitive from all sites considered.

Foody, Rebecca↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimation of Large-Scale Wind Field Characteristics Using Supervisory Control and Data: Preprint

As the wind energy industry continues to pushfor increased power production and lower cost of energy, thefocus of research has expanded from individual turbines toentire wind farms. Among a host of interesting problems to besolved when considering the wind farm as a whole, we considerthe challenge of scalar field estimation, based on informationalready collected at the individual turbine level. We aim toestimate the large-scale, low-frequency characteristics of thewind field, such as the mean wind direction and the overalldecrease in wind speed across the farm, and employ a Kalmanfilter that models the wind field using a polynomial function.We compare the proposed method’s performance to both asimple averaging technique and filtering of individual turbinemeasurements. The method presented is not limited to windturbines and is applicable in other situations where multipleremote agents are used to estimate a scalar field.

large scale↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Wind Energy Resources and Cost Uncertainties Across the United States

This dataset contains results estimating projections of change of annual capacity factors and levelized cost of energy for several turbine technologies in the 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). Projections of change are based on downscaled earth system model (ESM) data from Sup3rCC. There has been evidence of reductions in average wind speeds over land in North America since the 1980s, and several models project that average wind speeds will continue to decrease. Concurrently, the cost of wind energy systems in the United States has been decreasing since around 2010, a trend also projected to continue. There is considerable uncertainty in these future projections, with quantitative estimates of future wind resource and system costs varying widely. To study this, we run land-based wind energy models with a range of possible future system costs, turbine designs, and meteorological inputs from multiple downscaled earth system models over the contiguous United States to estimate critical system performance metrics such as annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy. Where multiple earth system models agree, changes in mean AEP from the time period 2000-2019 to 2040-2059 can be as high as +10% in South Texas or as low as -20% in Iowa. Several additional states in the Midwest that currently have considerable wind generation capacity show the possibility of substantial decreases in AEP by mid-century. Larger turbines and moderate reductions in system costs can offset even the largest projected decreases in wind resource, but much uncertainty remains in the extent to which wind resources will actually change into the future and to what extent wind energy systems can drive down future costs. An analysis of variance shows, in several states in the Midwest, the uncertainty in future wind resource can be almost as important for future changes in the cost of wind energy as the uncertainty in future system costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Tritium Behavior in Forest Vegetation for the Purpose of Determining Appropriate Non-Zero Deposition Velocities for Tritium Oxide

Modeling and field measurements have been conducted between 2019 and 2021 to assess the practicality of using a non-zero deposition velocity for safety basis estimates of tritium oxide fate and transport modeling. A model was developed which used a complex deposition algorithm designed to assess how tritium oxide would mix based on the turbulent motions and wind speed effects that the forest canopy has on the atmosphere. The model was driven based on measurements of wind and turbulence taken from the Aiken AmeriFlux Tower which measures these properties at five levels located within and just above the forest. The model was then validated against a series of field experiments which were designed to test the model predictions and estimate the deposition velocity occurring over the forest environment at the Savannah River Site. The field releases used deuterium oxide as a surrogate for tritium oxide and was released as a fine mist which rapidly evaporated, creating a gaseous tracer in the atmosphere. Using air samplers, the elevations in deuterium concentration in the air relative to background measurements was assessed and then modeled. Generally, the numerical model tended to underpredict the amount of deuterium being mixed from above the canopy to the forest floor, indicating that the predictions it provides are still conservative relative to what was measured during the field experiments. Across a suite of modeling runs, the 95 th and 99 th percentile deposition velocities were estimated to be 1.2 and 0.7 cm s -1 , respectively. Estimated deposition velocities in the 2021 field experiments, which specifically assessed a release above the forest canopy and its mixing to the surface, predicted deposition velocities ranging from 1.75 to 6.61 cm s -1 . While these field releases do not cover all possible meteorological conditions, it seems appropriate to use a non-zero deposition velocity when performing safety-basis modeling of tritium oxide. The recommendation presented in this report is to use 1.0 cm s -1 . This is between the 95 th and 99 th percentile value estimated from the modeling study, suggesting it should be appropriate for the majority of release scenarios given the model’s apparent conservatism relative to field measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

WINDPROF: Merged Best-Estimate Wind Profile Data – Cape Cod (WFIP3 Campaign)

WINDPROF provides 10-minute wind and turbulence profiles that integrate a scanning Doppler lidar, a profiling Doppler lidar, and two sonic anemometers across Northeast U.S. coastal and offshore sites during the WFIP3 campaign. Variables include wind speed, wind direction, vertical velocity, turbulence intensity, and turbulent kinetic energy, each with per-instrument quality control and inter-instrument agreement validation. Profiles are mapped to a standardized height grid – dedicated near-surface levels at the sonic measurement heights (4 m and 10 m AGL), 20 m spacing to 100 m, and 30 m spacing above – and carry component and derived uncertainty estimates. Heights are reported above ground level; the site's ground elevation is stored separately. The Cape Cod dataset covers 1 February 2024 – 6 September 2025.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

VENTSAR V3.0: A Python GUI for Estimating Contaminant Concentrations on or Near Buildings Due to Building Effects and Plume Rise and For Calculating Inhalation and Plume Shine Doses

VENTSAR: Originated as VENTAX (Smith and Weber 1983) on the IBM Mainframe at the Savannah River Site (SRS) as a Fortran program. Updated to VENTSAR XL V1.0 (Simpkins 1997) as a spreadsheet version using macros created in Microsoft Excel. Later updated to VENTSAR XL V2.0 (Dixon 2018) as a spreadsheet executing a modified version of the original VENTAX Fortran code. Estimates contaminant concentrations on or near a building from a release at a nearby location. Calculates concentrations for a given meteorological exceedance probability or for a given stability and wind speed combination. Can model a single building with or without a penthouse on top or a ground location from either a stack or ground release. Plume rise can be considered. Contaminant releases can be chemical or radioactive with downwind concentrations determined at user-specified distances. Wind passing over and around buildings creates a complicated dispersion pattern. Air-intake vents may be located on building roofs or near the ground downwind of a release source. An estimation of pollutant concentrations on or near a structure is important in determining expected pollutant levels. Meteorological data are selected based on a specific area of the site. Fortran-based VENTAX able to make fast, complex mathematical calculations. Not user-friendly VENTSAR XL V1.0 no longer supported due to obsolete Excel macros. VENTSAR XL V2.0 an interim solution using an Excel spreadsheet to interface with the modified VENTAX Fortran code. Requires user to have Microsoft Excel. Not an intuitive interface for someone unfamiliar with VENTSAR. Does not perform dose calculations. VENTSAR V3.0 goal to combine the strengths of previous versions of VENTSAR into a single, powerful yet user-friendly program with a Graphical User Interface (GUI). Not dependent upon a specific program or plug-ins. Self-contained package to be used on any computer running Microsoft Windows. User-friendly, intuitive GUI created in Python for parameter input. Executes same modified VENTAX Fortran code as VENTSAR XL V2.0. Outputs formatted text file of completed calculations for easy review and dissemination. Performs inhalation and plume shine dose calculations for up to 11 user-selected nuclides from a nuclide dose factor library of almost 500 nuclides. 12 test cases were created for verification of V1.0 and V2.0. Same test cases run in V3.0 to verify correct performance. V3.0 produced similar results to V1.0. Confirmed GUI did not alter calculations in any way. Comparisons of the test case results confirm the V3.0 GUI does not influence the VENTSAR calculations. Simply passes same input parameters to VENTAX Fortran code for execution. Provides end user an easy-to-use, intuitive tool to quickly make building effect and plume rise calculations, as well as, inhalation and plume shine dose calculations. No experience with or working knowledge of Fortran, Excel, command line, or macros required. Self-contained package allows VENTSAR be deployed to any Windows computer without the need for specific programs or plug-ins.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

CFD-Enhanced Calibration of a Multihole Probe for Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems

A robust calibration method with a 9-hole probe (9HP) for inertial wind vector measurements from a small uncrewed aircraft system (sUAS) is presented. Calibration accuracy is improved by using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to estimate corrections, such as those for test section blockage, that are generally applied in wind tunnel testing. A method for estimating experimental bias is presented to account for flow variations over the pressure taps as the 9HP is repositioned in the test section. Installation effects from flow over the airframe and upwash produced by the wings are estimated from CFD simulations of the entire airframe at the expected cruise speed. An initial CFD analysis has demonstrated a quantifiable linear relationship between the measured and actual angle of attack as measured from the relative wind frame. In conclusion, the objective of these additional steps is to increase the accuracy of 9HP calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multidimensional Distributional Neural Network Output Demonstrated in Super‐Resolution of Surface Wind Speed

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in neural network predictions remains a central challenge for scientific applications involving high-dimensional, correlated data. While existing methods capture either aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty, few offer closed-form, multidimensional distributions that preserve spatial correlation while remaining computationally tractable. In this work, we present a framework for training neural networks with a multidimensional Gaussian loss, generating a closed-form predictive distribution over outputs informed by non-identically distributed training data. Our approach captures aleatoric uncertainty by iteratively estimating the means and covariance matrices, and is demonstrated on a super-resolution example out-of-training-sample. We leverage a Fourier representation of the covariance matrix to stabilize network training and preserve spatial correlation. We introduce a novel regularization strategy—referred to as information sharing—that interpolates between image-specific and global covariance estimates, enabling convergence of the super-resolution downscaling network trained on image-specific distributional loss functions. This framework allows for efficient sampling, explicit correlation modeling, and extensions to more complex distribution families all without disrupting prediction performance. We demonstrate the method on a surface wind speed downscaling task and discuss its broader applicability to uncertainty-aware prediction in scientific models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

WINDPROF: Merged Best-Estimate Wind Profile Data – Rhode Island (WFIP3 Campaign)

WINDPROF provides 10-minute wind and turbulence profiles that integrate a scanning Doppler lidar, a continuous-wave profiling lidar, and a sonic anemometer across Northeast U.S. coastal and offshore sites during the WFIP3 campaign. Variables include wind speed, wind direction, vertical velocity, turbulence intensity, and turbulent kinetic energy, each with per-instrument quality control and inter-instrument agreement validation. Profiles are mapped to a standardized height grid – a dedicated near-surface level at the sonic measurement height (4 m AGL), 20 m spacing to 100 m, and 30 m spacing above – and carry component and derived uncertainty estimates. Heights are reported above ground level; the site's ground elevation is stored separately. The Rhode Island dataset covers 7 February 2024 – 4 September 2025.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of wind field characteristics on pitch bearing reliability: a case study of 5 MW reference wind turbine at onshore and offshore sites; Auswirkungen von Windfeldeigenschaften auf die Zuverlässigkeit von Rotorblattlagern: eine Fallstudie über eine 5-MW-Referenz-Windkraftanlage an Onshore- und Offshore-Standorten

This paper presents a study on pitch bearing basic rating life affected by wind field characteristics at both onshore and offshore wind sites. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5 MW reference wind turbine is selected for the study. Wind field characteristics including reference hub height mean wind speed, wind speed distribution, wind shear, and vertical inflow are studied. A decoupled approach is employed where global analysis is performed first. Second, the load effects from the global analysis are applied on a reference pitch bearing designed based on best industrial practices. For the case study onshore site, it is found that the Kernel density estimation best fits the wind distribution, while the International Electrotechnical Commission proposed distribution appears to be not suitable. Moreover, it is shown that the seed number has high effect on the bearing life in turbulence wind and the wind speeds around rated have the highest contribution in both bearing fatigue damage and extreme load failure. The results contribute to better understanding of the wind field characteristics on the pitch bearing life.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

WINDPROF: Merged Best-Estimate Wind Profile Data – Nantucket (WFIP3 Campaign)

WINDPROF provides 10-minute wind and turbulence profiles that integrate scanning Doppler lidars, a profiling lidar, a 915 MHz radar wind profiler, and a sonic anemometer across Northeast U.S. coastal and offshore sites during the WFIP3 campaign. Variables include wind speed, wind direction, vertical velocity, turbulence intensity, and turbulent kinetic energy, each with per-instrument quality control and inter-instrument agreement validation. Profiles are mapped to a standardized height grid – a dedicated near-surface level at the sonic measurement height (5 m AGL), 20 m spacing to 100 m, and 30 m spacing above – and carry component and derived uncertainty estimates. Heights are reported above ground level; the site's ground elevation is stored separately. The Nantucket dataset covers 1 February 2024 – 8 September 2025.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Model Hub Height Wind Speed Performance Using DOE Lidar Buoy Data

As the offshore wind industry continues to gain momentum both in the U.S. and globally, reanalysis products remain essential tools for the lifecycle of a wind farm. From project siting and production estimates to determining construction and maintenance windows, reanalysis products play an important role. These regional and global long-term models also serve as inputs to higher resolution models. With such wide-ranging impacts on the offshore wind industry, the need for validation of reanalysis products is strong, particularly at typical turbine hub heights. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinelTM buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect meteorological and oceanographic data, including hub height wind speed, in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work uses DOE buoy observations off the coasts of New Jersey and Virginia to evaluate the performance of Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assimilation system Rapid Refresh (RAP). Biases and degrees of correspondence are determined for each reanalysis product in order to provide insights on the performance and uncertainty for long-term wind resource characterization. With the baseline metrics determined, this work proceeds with an investigation into the sources of large deviations between the modeled and observed hub height wind speeds during the East Coast lidar buoy deployments. Consistent sources of reanalysis model error include stably stratified flow conditions, high wind shear, flow parallel to the coastline, and tropical and winter storms. For the near shore New Jersey location, offshore winds (i.e. blowing from land to water) tend to be associated with model overestimation of observed hub height wind speed, while winds parallel to the coastline are correlated with model underestimation of wind speed. Similarly, near the Virginia buoy, during southerly winds (parallel to the coastline) models underestimate the observed wind speed due to coastal upwelling. Reanalysis model wind speeds underestimate the hub height winds with increasing stable atmospheric stratification. Reanalysis model biases are seen when the observed wind speeds approach or exceed typical turbine cut-out speeds (around 20 m s-1). Large model errors during winter and tropical storm events, high wind speed events, and ramp events are often the result of wind speed timing and magnitude offsets. Overall, ERA5 provides the most successful representation of observed offshore hub height wind speeds at the U.S. East Coast buoy locations and is therefore best suited as an input boundary condition for model case studies. ERA5 performs well for a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including storms and sea breezes, however RAP, the next most successful reanalysis model, performs best in capturing the frequency of ramp events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

WINDPROF: Merged Best-Estimate Wind Profile Data – Block Island (WFIP3 Campaign)

WINDPROF provides 10-minute wind and turbulence profiles that integrate a scanning Doppler lidar, a profiling lidar, a 915 MHz radar wind profiler, and a surface met station across Northeast U.S. coastal and offshore sites during the WFIP3 campaign. Variables include wind speed, wind direction, vertical velocity, turbulence intensity, and turbulent kinetic energy, each with per-instrument quality control and inter-instrument agreement validation. Profiles are mapped to a standardized height grid – a dedicated near-surface level at the 10 m surface-wind height, 20 m spacing to 100 m, and 30 m spacing above – and carry component and derived uncertainty estimates. Heights are reported above ground level; the site's ground elevation is stored separately. The Block Island dataset covers 1 February 2024 – 8 September 2025.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

National-scale impacts on wind energy production under curtailment scenarios to reduce bat fatalities

Wind energy often plays a major role in meeting renewable energy policy objectives; however, increased deployment can raise concerns regarding the impacts of wind plants on certain wildlife. Particularly, estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of bat fatalities occur annually at wind plants across North America, with potential implications for the viability of several bat species. One approach to reducing bat fatalities is shutting down (or curtailing) turbines when bats are most at risk, such as at night during relatively low wind speed periods throughout summer and early autumn. While curtailment has consistently been shown to reduce bat fatalities, the lost power production reduces revenues for wind plants. This study conducted simulations with a range of curtailment scenarios across the contiguous United States to examine sensitivities of annual energy production (AEP) loss and potential impacts on economic metrics for future wind energy deployment. We found that AEP reduction can vary across the country from less than 1% to more than 10% for different curtailment scenarios. From an estimated 2891 gigawatts (GW) of simulated economically viable wind capacity (measured by a positive net present value), we found the mid curtailment scenario (6.0 m/s wind speed cut-in from July 1 through October 31) reduced the quantity of economic wind capacity by 274 GW or 9.5%. Our results indicate that high levels of curtailment could substantially reduce the future footprint of financially viable wind energy. In this context, future work that illuminates cost-effective strategies to minimize curtailment while reducing bat fatalities would be of value.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can lidars assess wind plant blockage in simple terrain? A WRF-LES study

Wind plant blockage reduces wind velocity upstream of wind plants, reducing the power generated by turbines adjacent to the inflow, and potentially throughout the plant as well. The nature of the mechanism that amplifies blockage as well as the velocity reductions in both the induction zone and potentially deeper into the array are not well understood. Field observations can provide valuable insight into the characteristics of the induction zone and the mechanisms that amplify it. However, the relatively small velocity reductions that have been measured experimentally pose a challenge in quantifying blockage, especially in onshore environments with flow heterogeneities that may be of the same scale as the blockage effect itself. We simulate the flow around the King Plains wind plant in the relatively simple terrain of Oklahoma, the location of the American WAKE experimeNt, to evaluate wind plant blockage in this environment. Using numerical simulations, we find the largest velocity deceleration (0.64 m s−1; 8%) immediately upstream of the wind plant, and 1% velocity deficits 24 rotor diameters upstream of the first turbine row. We also use virtual measurements upstream of the wind plant to analyze the uncertainties and difficulties in measuring blockage using a scanning lidar on shore. Based on our virtual lidar study, the induction zone of land-based wind plants can be incorrectly estimated using observations if the effects of nonuniform terrain on the flow are not carefully considered. Changes in terrain elevation produce local variations in wind speed (as measured by a scanning lidar) that exceed in magnitude the deceleration within the induction zone. We refer to these local changes in wind speed as terrain effects. A methodology to differentiate between terrain effects and blockage in experimental settings is proposed and evaluated herein, highlighting the difficulties and uncertainties associated with measurement and simulation of blockage in even relatively simple onshore environments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A computational fluid dynamics model to estimate local quantities in firebrand char oxidation

Firebrand burning is a complex phenomenon that is influenced by several parameters which are difficult to fully explore experimentally. Computational fluid dynamics models capable of predicting local quantities are essential for accurate prediction of char oxidation in firebrands. This article presents a computational fluid dynamics model to estimate firebrand mass loss, diameter change, and surface temperature during char oxidation. The model was validated using previously conducted wind tunnel experiments. These experiments were conducted for firebrands of two different aspect ratios, which were arranged in three different configurations (single, horizontal array, and vertical array), and for four different wind speeds (0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2 m/s). The computational fluid dynamics results were compared with a previous 1 D model. In all the test cases, the computational fluid dynamics model predicted the physical phenomena with significantly improved accuracy compared to a 1 D model. The char oxidation model presented in this article can be coupled with other models to study firebrand generation and trajectory, biomass pyrolysis, fluidized bed reactors, and coal combustion.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane Quantification Performance of the Quantitative Optical Gas Imaging (QOGI) System Using Single-Blind Controlled Release Assessment

Quantitative optical gas imaging (QOGI) system can rapidly quantify leaks detected by optical gas imaging (OGI) cameras across the oil and gas supply chain. A comprehensive evaluation of the QOGI system’s quantification capability is needed for the successful adoption of the technology. This study conducted single-blind experiments to examine the quantification performance of the FLIR QL320 QOGI system under near-field conditions at a pseudo-realistic, outdoor, controlled testing facility that mimics upstream and midstream natural gas operations. The study completed 357 individual measurements across 26 controlled releases and 71 camera positions for release rates between 0.1 kg Ch 4 /h and 2.9 kg Ch 4 /h of compressed natural gas (which accounts for more than 90% of typical component-level leaks in several production facilities). The majority (75%) of measurements were within a quantification factor of 3 (quantification error of –67% to 200%) with individual errors between –90% and 831%, which reduced to –79% to +297% when the mean of estimates of the same controlled release from multiple camera positions was considered. Performance improved with increasing release rate, using clear sky as plume background, and at wind speeds ≤1 mph relative to other measurement conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗