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At least 109 records · Page 6

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast – Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosols, gases, and wet deposition.Seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration with maxima (minima) along the coast in winter (summer), suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. Compared with satellite cloud retrievals, four climate models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

David Painemal↗

Remote profiling of lake ice using an S-band short pulse radar aboard an all-terrain vehicle

An airborne short-pulse radar system to measure ice thickness was designed. The system supported an effort to develop an all-weather Great Lakes Ice Information System to aid in extending the winter navigation season. Experimental studies into the accuracy and limitations of the system are described. A low power version was operated from an all-terrain vehicle on the Straits of Mackinac during March 1975. The vehicle allowed rapid surveying of large areas and eliminated the ambiguity in location between the radar system and the ground truth ice auger team. It was also possible to the effects of snow cover, surface melt water, pressure ridging, and ice type upon the accuracy of the system. Over 25 sites were explored which had ice thicknesses from 29 to 60 cm. The maximum radar overestimate was 9.8 percent, while the maximum underestimate was 6.6 percent. The average error of the 25 measurements was 0.1 percent.

Cooper, D. W.↗

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and its Impact on Northern Hemisphere Weather Predictability during Wintertime

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is known as the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability and has an important role in the coupled-atmosphere system. This study used twin numerical model experiments to investigate the influence of the MJO activity on weather predictability in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard laboratory for the Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model was first used in a 10-yr simulation with fixed climatological SSTs to generate a validation data set as well as to select initial conditions for active MJO periods and Null cases. Two perturbation numerical experiments were performed for the 75 cases selected [(4 MJO phases + Null phase) _ 15 initial conditions in each]. For each alternative initial condition, the model was integrated for 90 days. Mean anomaly correlations in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (2O deg N_60 deg.N) and standardized root-mean-square errors were computed to validate forecasts and control run. The analyses of 500-hPa geopotential height, 200-hPa Streamfunction and 850-hPa zonal wind component systematically show larger predictability during periods of active MJO as opposed to quiescent episodes of the oscillation.

Jones, Charles↗

Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Streamflow Prediction in the Snowmelt Season: A Continental-Scale Analysis

In areas dominated by winter snowcover, the prediction of streamflow during the snowmelt season may benefit from three pieces of information: (i) the accurate prediction of weather variability (precipitation, etc.) leading up to and during the snowmelt season, (ii) estimates of the amount of snow present during the winter season, and (iii) estimates of the amount of soil moisture underlying the snowpack during the winter season. The importance of accurate meteorological predictions and wintertime snow estimates is obvious. The contribution of soil moisture to streamflow prediction is more subtle yet potentially very important. If the soil is dry below the snowpack, a significant fraction of the snowmelt may be lost to streamflow and potential reservoir storage, since it may infiltrate the soil instead for later evaporation. Such evaporative losses are presumably smaller if the soil below the snowpack is wet. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art land surface model to quantify the contribution of wintertime snow and soil moisture information -- both together and separately -- to skill in forecasting springtime streamflow. We find that soil moisture information indeed contributes significantly to streamflow prediction skill.

Reichle, Rolf↗

Relation Between Lightning Activity of Summer and Winter Thunderclouds and Surface Electric Field Variation, Japan

In winter, active convective clouds frequently form along the coastline of the Hokuriku district, in association with strong advection of Siberian air masses over the Sea of Japan. On the other hand, in summer, many thunderclouds form in the Kanto region in the afternoon every day. Summer and winter thunderclouds were investigated by field works, operation of the C- and X-band weather radars and a car-borne fieldmill. The investigation found a very close relation between the temporal variation of 3-dimensional radar echo and surface electric field magnitude detected by a car-borne fieldmill in the case of summer thunderclouds and winter convective clouds or thunderclouds. The study probed the close relation among radar echoes, quantity of thunderclouds and surface electric field magnitude in the summer and winter seasons. We think that summer thundercloud activity can basically be equated with winter thundercloud lightning activity, except that the magnitude of surface electric field under summer thunderclouds in the case of the Kanto region cannot be equated with that under winter thunderclouds in the case of the Hokuriku district in winter.

Michimoto, K.↗

North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space

In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

Orrhede, Anna Karin↗

Use of the LANDSAT-2 Data Collection System in the Colorado River Basin Weather Modification Program

The author has identified the following significant results. The operation of the LANDSAT data collection system on the Colorado River Basin pilot project during the 1974-75 winter season demonstrated that it is a practical means to obtain accurate data in near real-time to aid in forecasting and control of weather modification operations. Tests of the two prototype wind averaging systems have shown that wind data can be averaged and stored on-site for a period of eight hours prior to transmission through the LANDSAT DCS. These averaged wind data will be much more useful in operational programs than instantaneous values.

Kahan, A. M.↗

The use of polar-orbiting satellite sounding data to estimate rural maximum and minimum temperatures

Atmospheric sounding products from NOAA's polar-orbiting satellites were used to derive and test predictive equations of rural shelter-level maximum and minimum temperatures. Sounding data from both winter and summer months were combined with surface data from over 5300 cooperative weather stations in the continental United States to develop multiple linear regression equations. Separate equations were developed for both maximum and minimum temperature, using the three types of sounding retrievals (clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy). Clear retrieval models outperformed others, and maximum temperatures were more accurately predicted than minimums. Average standard deviations of observed rural shelter temperatures within sounding search areas were of similar magnitude to root-mean-square errors from satellite estimates for most clear and partly cloudy cases, but were significantly less for cloudy retrieval cases. Model validation for surrogate polar and tropical climatic regions showed success in application of the four clear retrieval models (maximum and minimum temperature, for both winter and summer). This indicates the potential adaptability of these models to estimates of rural shelter temperature in areas outside of the United States.

Johnson, Gregory L.↗

Comparisons of Bin and Bulk Microphysics Schemes in Simulations of Topographic Winter Precipitation with Radar and Radiometer Measurements

The Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM) bin scheme and the Thompson bulk scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are compared to assess biases often found in simulated brightness temperature and radar reflectivity. Compared to our preceding study that evaluated several bulk schemes in the WRF model, the current study obtains a reduction of the bias from excessive microwave scattering by precipitation ice for both HUCM bin and the Thompson bulk microphysics schemes for a topographic winter precipitation event associated with an atmospheric river. The Thompson particle size distributions (PSDs) and snow particle density assumption are implemented into the Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (G‐SDSU) and have produced improvements. Despite the greater sophistication of the bin scheme in representing cloud and precipitation processes, the simulation with the Thompson bulk scheme is generally in better agreement with observations for this winter event. The explicitly resolved hydrometeor PSDs in HUCM enable analysis of mass spectra variations in response to changes in microphysics assumptions. Two HUCM sensitivity runs tested the enhancement of snow particle breakup and the influence of ice nuclei (IN) concentration. Higher IN concentration resulted in increased snow mass and broadened the spectrum toward small‐size particles. Modified snow mass spectra and resultant changes in graupel contributed to modifications in scattering and reflectivity simulations. The article demonstrates the bin scheme's capability to provide a new means to improve our understanding of uncertainties in mesoscale weather models and radiative transfer models.

microwave remote sensing↗

Severe Storms Branch research report (April 1984 April 1985)

The Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Research Program is a program of integrated studies which are to achieve an improved understanding of the basic behavior of the atmosphere through the use of remotely sensed data and space technology. The program consist of four elements: (1) special observations and analysis of mesoscale systems; (20 the development of quanitative algorithms to use remotely sensed observations; (3) the development of new observing systems; and (4) numerical modeling. The Severe Storms Branch objectives are the improvement of the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of a wide range of atmospheric storms, which includes severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flash floods, tropical cyclones, and winter snowstorms. The research often shed light upon various aspects of local weather, such as fog, sea breezes, air pollution, showers, and other products of nonsevere cumulus cloud clusters. The part of the program devoted to boundary layer processes, gust front interactions, and soil moisture detection from satellites gives insights into storm growth and behavior.

Dubach, L.↗

A simple model for the interaction of planetary and synoptic-scale waves in the troposphere

The time-mean circulation of the troposphere during the Northern hemisphere winter is dominated by planetary-scale stationary waves superposed on longitudinal-mean westerly flow. The movement and generation of weather-making, synoptic-scale transient waves are controlled by this large-scale circulation. The interannual variablity of planetary scale waves determines the severity of the winter season over broad geographic regions through such factors as frequency of storms, precipitation and temperature. A conceptual model that incorporates these feedbacks between the two scales is developed and guides the formulation of the quantitative low-order model which retains a few basic physical processes and wave components. In the low-order model the fluxes of sensible heat and momentum and latent heat release by transient eddies are parameterized in terms of the evolving large-scale circulation. Radiative forcing and damping, planetary-scale variations in moisture and topography and Ekman dissipation are also included. Testing of this model is in progress. The results will help interpret experiments from sophisticated general-circulation models and ascertain the need for satellite observations of precipitation.

Branscome, Lee E.↗

30 WS North Base Wind Study

The 30 Weather Squadron (30 WS) is concerned about strong winds observed at their northern towers without advance warning. They state that terrain influences along the extreme northern fringes of Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) make it difficult for forecasters to issue timely and accurate high wind warnings for northeasterly wind events. These events tend to occur during the winter or early spring when they are under the influence of the Great Basin high pressure weather regime. The Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) have seen these rapid wind increases in the current northern Towers 60, 70 and 71 in excess of their 35 kt operational warning threshold. For this task, the 30 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) analyze data from days when these towers reported winds in excess of 35 kt and determine if there were any precursors in the observations that would allow the LWOs to better forecast and warn their operational customers for these wind events. The 30 WS provided wind tower data for the cool season (October - March) from the period January 2004-March 20 IO. The AMU decoded and evaluated the wind tower data for 66 days identified by the 30 WS as having high-wind events. Out of the 66 event days, only 30 had wind speed observations of > or =35 kt from at least one of the three northern towers. The AMU analyzed surface and upper air charts to determine the synoptic conditions for each event day along with tower peak wind speed and direction time series and wind rose charts for all 30 event days. The analysis revealed a trend on all event days in which the tower winds shifted to the northeast for a period of time before the first recorded > or =35 kt wind speed. The time periods for the 30 event days ranged from 20 minutes to several hours, with a median value of 110 minutes. This trend, if monitored, could give the 30 WS forecasters a precursor to assist in issuing an operational warning before a high wind event occurs. The AMU recommends developing a high-wind alert capability for VAFB using a local mesoscale model to forecast these wind events. The model should incorporate all of the VAFB local data sets and have a forecast capability of between 2 to 24 hours. Such a model would allow the meteorologists at VAFB to alert the operational customers of high wind events in a timely manner so protective action could be taken.

Wheeler, Mark↗

An Analysis of Depolarization Streaks for Anticipating Lightning in Thundersnow

Infrequent lightning events, particularly in stratiform precipitation, present a unique decision-support challenge to National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and core partners. Anticipating thundersnow events, which are rare compared to warm season lightning, are especially difficult to anticipate due to slanted updrafts within the comma-head region of a mid-latitude cyclone. Researchers and operational forecasters have observed depolarization streaks in differential reflectivity (ZDR) as a result of ice crystal layers prior to thundersnow initiation. These depolarization streaks form as a result of ice crystals aligning themselves with enhancements in the electric field in stratiform precipitation and are associated with ZDR values near zero. During the 7 March 2018 winter storm, a teacher in New Jersey was struck by lightning while dismissing students and depolarization streaks were observed in weather radar observations. Therefore, it is advantageous to examine depolarization streaks in ZDR to determine whether it can be used to anticipate lightning potential in winter-time events. Multiple events will be analyzed using the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) to determine if thundersnow flashes coincide with ZDR depolarization streaks in weather radars. This study also expands on collaboration between the NWS Huntsville Forecast Office and NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program to determine how depolarization streaks can be used operationally to anticipate lightning within stratiform regions. Preliminary work has indicated noticeable potential in correlating depolarization streak as a precursor to thundersnow flashes in a variety of geographical regions.

Autumn Millard↗

Study of comets at wavelengths between 0.5 and 18 microns

Since 1969 every bright comet was measured which has reached a distance of one astronomical unit from the sun. Observing techniques were developed which make it possible to observe as close as elongation 3 deg., and to find, track and measure comets at all wavelengths in full daylight. Comet Halley was measured on twenty four occasions between December 12, 1985 and March 25, 1986. Clear weather seems to come on holidays, and days on which are observed including Winter Solstice, Christmas, New Years, Valentines day, Super Bowl Sunday and the Vernal Equinox. Halley is observed within hours of perihelion passage.

Net, E. P.↗

Linking Improvements in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions to Decreasing Sulfate Wet Deposition by Combining Satellite and Surface Observations with Trajectory Analysis

Sulfur dioxide (SO2), a criteria pollutant, and sulfate (SO42) deposition are major environmental concerns in the eastern U.S. and both have been on the decline for two decades. In this study, we use satellite column SO2 data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and SO42 wet deposition data from the NADP (National Atmospheric Deposition Program) to investigate the temporal and spatial relationship between trends in SO2 emissions and the downward sulfate wet deposition over the eastern U.S. from 2005 to 2015. To establish the relationship between SO2 emission sources and receptor sites, we conducted a Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis using HYSPLIT back trajectories for five selected Air Quality System (AQS) sites - (Hackney, OH, Akron, OH, South Fayette, PA, Wilmington, DE, and Beltsville, MD) - in close proximity to NADP sites with large downward SO42 trends since 2005. Back trajectories were run for three summers (JJA) and three winters (DJF) and used to generate seasonal climatology PSCFs for each site. The OMI SO2 and interpolated NADP sulfate deposition trends were normalized and overlapped with the PSCF, to identify the areas that had the highest contribution to the observed drop. The results suggest that emission reductions along the Ohio River Valley have led to decreases in sulfate deposition in eastern OH and western PA (Hackney, Akron and South Fayette). Farther to the east, emission reductions in southeast PA resulted in improvements in sulfate deposition at Wilmington, DE, while for Beltsville, reductions in both the Ohio River Valley and nearby favorably impacted sulfate deposition. For Beltsville, sources closer than 300km from the site contribute roughly 56% observed deposition trends in winter, and 82% in summer, reflecting seasonal changes in transport pattern as well as faster oxidation and washout of sulfur in summer. This suggests that emissions and wet deposition are linked through not only the location of sources relative to the observing sites, but also to photochemistry and the weather patterns characteristic to the region, as evidenced by a west to east shift in the contribution between winter and summer. The method developed here is applicable to other regions with significant trends such as China and India, and can be used to estimate the potential benefits of emission reduction in those areas.

Acid depostion↗

Linking Improvements in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions to Decreasing Sulfate Wet Deposition By Combining Satellite and Surface Observations With Trajectory Analysis

Sulfur dioxide (SO2), a criteria pollutant, and sulfate (SO42−) deposition are major environmental concerns in the eastern U.S. and both have been on the decline for two decades. In this study, we use satellite column SO2 data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and SO42− wet deposition data from the NADP (National Atmospheric Deposition Program) to investigate the temporal and spatial relationship between trends in SO2 emissions and the downward sulfate wet deposition over the eastern U.S. from 2005 to 2015. To establish the relationship between SO2 emission sources and receptor sites, we conducted a Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis using HYSPLIT back trajectories for five selected Air Quality System (AQS) sites - (Hackney, OH, Akron, OH, South Fayette, PA, Wilmington, DE, and Beltsville, MD) - in close proximity to NADP sites with large downward SO42− trends since 2005. Back trajectories were run for three summers (JJA) and three winters (DJF) and used to generate seasonal climatology PSCFs for each site. The OMI SO2 and interpolated NADP sulfate deposition trends were normalized and overlapped with the PSCF, to identify the areas that had the highest contribution to the observed drop. The results suggest that emission reductions along the Ohio River Valley have led to decreases in sulfate deposition in eastern OH and western PA (Hackney, Akron and South Fayette). Farther to the east, emission reductions in southeast PA resulted in improvements in sulfate deposition at Wilmington, DE, while for Beltsville, reductions in both the Ohio River Valley and nearby favorably impacted sulfate deposition. For Beltsville, sources closer than 300 km from the site contribute roughly 56% observed deposition trends in winter, and 82% in summer, reflecting seasonal changes in transport pattern as well as faster oxidation and washout of sulfur in summer. This suggests that emissions and wet deposition are linked through not only the location of sources relative to the observing sites, but also to photochemistry and the weather patterns characteristic to the region, as evidenced by a west to east shift in the contribution between winter and summer. The method developed here is applicable to other regions with significant trends such as China and India, and can be used to estimate the potential benefits of emission reduction in those areas.

sulfur dioxide emissions↗

CLIMATE LECTURE 3: Building a Climate Model

Climate, or the average of day-to-day weather, can be very different at various points on Earth. The local climate in the Arabian Desert is hot and dry, while that in the Amazon River basin is hot and humid with frequent rain. In upstate New York, the climate changes from being warm in the summer with sporadic rain to cold in the winter with sporadic snow. Hawaii, on the other hand, has a pleasant climate all year long. However, the day-to-day weather at all of these locations is much more variable. There can be dry days in the Amazon jungle, and rainy days in the Arabian Desert. There are some days in winter that are warmer than some days in summer. For further contrast, daylight in Antarctica lasts up to six months at a time with freezing cold day-in day-out. Can a climate model be built that can reproduce all of this complex behavior?

Russell, Gary↗